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  • Motorola to Split Into Two Independent Companies in 2011 [View article]
    If anyone is willing to sell lots of stock to me in MOT at a "worthless" figure I'd love to take it off your hands.

    The management at the company the last several years may well in fact have been been worse than worthless but that's water under the bridge.

    If some of this value can be set free and managed better there will be some value created. It's been some time.
    Feb 15, 2010. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Motorola Finally Starts to Get It, Should Double From Here [View article]
    Shiva, Sorry for the confusion. You're right in that I didn't write it very clearly.

    What I meant to say was that we value the mobile/home division at $12.50 and the enterprise division at $6.25. We looked at them as if they were separate companies. So if a split and distribution were to occur, over the course of the next year we would expect the share values to converge on these values. This would mean that a shareholder today would get a market value of $18.75.

    It's too early to be very precise because there is so much we don't know but these numbers are good approximations based on all the work we have done. One could argue for higher or lower numbers on each at this point and still be considered reasonable.

    Does that make sense? If not please let me know and I will elaborate further.
    Feb 15, 2010. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Out Jolicloud, A Potential Threat to Google's Chrome OS [View article]
    I'm looking forward to new releases. I also think this could be the right "OS" for things like your TV and your car.
    Feb 12, 2010. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Mobile Market Freezing Along with the Weather? [View article]
    Now that the iPad is out at a $499 starter lots of people seem geared up for that. It's not clear to me that a purchaser of the Kindle would stop but they might wait.

    The point about Apple and Amazon not working together is that it makes my life as a customer of both a little complicated. I'd love the iPad to be my Kindle. I expect that will happen at some point.

    The iPad looks generally useful to me and I will get one. eBooks will have to evolve before they can be more than a small percentage of my book purchases.
    Feb 12, 2010. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Imminent Rise of Internet TV [View article]
    I agree with the comments on bandwidth - we need more.

    However the Internet feature is an additional aspect to the TV so you can still use it with your cable or satellite TV service. Internet gets you more.

    We are years away from a total IP TV world.
    Feb 12, 2010. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Motorola to Split Into Two Independent Companies in 2011 [View article]
    I love that "mismanaged mountain of woe" phrase.

    It's either going to cash + something ($4-5) or if they can execute a little bit, $12/share.

    That's the kind of risk/reward I can take.
    Feb 12, 2010. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adobe's Flash Flap: Are Concerns Overblown? [View article]
    I think the current consensus is correct in that Flash will be around for a long time to come. But the shift means that investors will tend to put a lower multiple on Adobe than they did in the past. Reminds me a little of Autodesk which still dominates, still has a decent cycle with each new version but it's like a diminishing sine wave.

    The best developers will increasingly use a range of different technologies and tools to tap opportunity in areas, particularly mobile and social networking. Flash doesn't really hold sway there.
    Feb 11, 2010. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuinStreet IPO Leads the Pack [View article]
    Additional Analysis
    Feb 11, 2010. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash vs. HTML5: Tech's Political Third Rail [View article]
    I think the point is that developers now have many choices. Many were effectively forced into FLASH in the past and those days ar over.

    Our post from yesterday:
    Feb 9, 2010. 08:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Investment Bankers: Please Do Not Ruin the Current IPO Window [View article]
    You should save your ink.

    Investment bankers work for their clients which are the companies trying to complete an IPO. Furthermore they get paid only if the transaction can take place. So their job is to get it done.

    Banks do have some motivation to bring "good deals" to the market because it helps them attract clients and greases the wheels for future deals, but the primary job of the bank is to place the stock, not generate investment ideas and performance results.

    Rely on research; not on some collective conscience of the investment banking industry.
    Jan 11, 2010. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Launches Its Own App Store [View article]
    I thought Intel already had an AppStore called "Windows?"
    Jan 10, 2010. 04:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Elements to Steve Jobs' Bold Prediction for 2010 [View article]
    This is an excellent post. It also makes me revisit the thinking that maybe Microsoft needs to go into the hardware business (buy Dell, it's actually quite cheap and still has very high returns on investment capital) and get into retail more aggressively. Of course we've already said they need to buy RIM. That seems to be growing more urgent by the day.
    Jan 7, 2010. 09:13 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Phone: Why the Pundits Are Wrong [View article]
    Every debate on this topic makes me feel like everyone is arguing points based on a zero sum game. I have no idea what phone is right for Aunt Sophie but I bet it's *neither* an iPhone or an Android model. She probably wants to make phone calls, see pictures we send her and get updates on facebook at the most. But I digress...

    It's not unreasonable to think about the current smartphone market as being like the PC space long ago. There will be many different models, form factors and use cases. Apple will fit well with many, so will Android, RIM, maybe Nokia, Palm, Samsung, HTC and others too. This is a big, long term new market.

    The one thing that seems clear is that vendors in this space will grow more by virtue of the shift in spending toward mobile. Instead of worrying if Apple, Google or RIM will win from this movement (they all will), pray for the companies who seem out of the loop here like Microsoft, HP, IBM, etc.

    As to the specific point of Android support, fragmentation and all that, it's an opportunity. Some of the carriers should be smart enough to pick up on it or maybe Android phone makers like Motorola will fill the gap and become a brand that is associated with "the open but fully integrated and supported Android OS."

    This is fun. Sure beats talking about storage networks and server virtualization!
    Jan 7, 2010. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing the 27-inch iLemon [View article]
    There's always lots of noise on Apple. Most people knew about the 27" iMac issues a while back. The questions remain: What component(s) were the root cause of the problem? How is Apple going to handle the defective units and what will the financial impact be? How soon will normal shipments of 27" iMac computers resume?
    Dec 25, 2009. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying C&D Technologies [View article]
    Pretty interesting call. To be fair this company has TEV/Sales of about 0.5 which is still cheap. They could restructure and improve the income statement enough to start chipping away at the balance sheet.

    We'll have to do some of our own work on this one. We published some research on A123 Systems which you can get over at our website.

    Your work is much appreciated.
    Dec 17, 2009. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment