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  • A Good Case For Keating Capital [View article]
    UPDATE: The NAV is now $7.34 as of March 31. The full SA transcript ( of the earning call maps out the various moving parts behind changes in NAV.

    The call also discusses filed IPO's for TrueCar and Zoosk and views that a large portion of portfolio companies are candidates for liquidity events in the "next four to eight quarters."

    Debating the right discount to NAV will go on but I suspect that the absolute value of NAV will increase and the discount will shrink.
    Apr 29, 2014. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Case For Keating Capital [View article]
    Fair comment. I think management would agree with you (perhaps not in public) and they are taking steps to increase AUM.

    I'm not sure I agree with the 65-70% discount to NAV but hey, that's what makes a market.
    Apr 28, 2014. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Profits In Apple And Don't Look Back [View article]
    I think you'll want to own $AAPL for the iPhone 6 product cycle. Probably will be a big one.
    Apr 27, 2014. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Case For Keating Capital [View article]
    TRMR is interesting for sure. Will they turn it around I don't know. The stock does seem cheap. For some reason these video technology stocks have tended not to do well. I don't get much comfort from the TRMR management team but by spending more time with them it might be possible to get more comfortable.
    Apr 27, 2014. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Case For Keating Capital [View article]
    Management compensation is an issue with many of these BDC companies. GSVC has been noted for this as well. KIPO would definitely benefit from additional AUM which they may get. I'm not trying to say that KIPO and stocks like it are the best things going but specifically given what is in their portfolio right now, the NAV, and the yield this is a good buy in my opinion. They should report an updated NAV tomorrow (Monday) and it should go up from there.
    Apr 27, 2014. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor: Current Valuation Hard To Justify [View article]
    This is one of the best articles I've read on SA. Fair and balanced with solid valuation perspective. I appreciate that future growth is hard to nail down and valuation multiples can vary widely based on that. Not to mention the market sentiment around these long-term SaaS models.

    The stock is down 30% YTD (and about 36% from the high) so the risk/reward is more attractive now.

    With an ER release coming soon (May 5th) the shares may be even more volatile. Definitely one for the radar at least!
    Apr 25, 2014. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NXT-ID Mobile-Bio Platform Enables M-Commerce [View article]
    I agree that we've yet to discover what kind of digital wallet people will want. I've seen Coin and it's a great video. I think it also validates the fact that people want something! However Coin right now is a video. We need to see it, and all devices including the Wocket in the real world to know how they will or won't work.

    As far as the phone is concerned there remain some big challenges there. Not the least of which are 1) power, 2) network access and 3) security. I think the phone will be an extension of purchase options for most people, especially for small purchases but few retailers are set up to handle phone payments and it's going to take time. The power and network access are big issues because you need your wallet to work all the time, no matter where you are or how far from an outlet.

    Security is a fairly big topic so I'm going to leave that out but i think that we will also end up with a digital version of our license and passport as well and I would not want everything tied into my phone given the limitations. Maybe in 10 or 15 years but not in the next 4-5.

    The other thing here is privacy. Most consumers need or want a way to pay someone without there being a record of it or giving their name or other info. A digital wallet can do this via different forms of digital cash from dollars to bitcoin or any other form of currency.
    Apr 9, 2014. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Lewis' Flawed New Book [View article]
    I don't have to read it to know there's not much there. When he was "shocked" about payment for order flow I could see he was out of touch. That was common practice back in the early 90's when I got in the business.
    Apr 2, 2014. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Has The Bloom Come Off The Rose? [View article]
    The "bloom" was off this "rose" a long time ago. And it's certainly not viewed as a "growth stock." This is a value based/turnaround story at best so spending time looking for revenue growth at this stage is futile.
    Mar 31, 2014. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable Ditching Daily Deals Is A Bad Sign For Groupon [View article]
    This was a helpful article. I checked out (owned by GRPN) and can see how it would make sense for restaurants to offer a discount during slow times which is what I see on the site (with OPEN as the reservation system.)

    There are also some good points made here about whether or not this market makes sense for promotions and discounts. There's always controversy during restaurant week about the real ROI for owners who do it. Many reduce their menu dramatically to keep from losing a ton of money and then diners are angry because they didn't get the "real deal."

    I think restaurants want and could use a kind of CRM system which at one point OPEN was going to be but it hasn't evolved in that direction. Promotions to regular and loyal customers make more sense to many than giving some random piker cheapskate a hit and run deal.

    We're going to be interviewing some restaurants over the next three weeks to understand their perspective better.
    Mar 23, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]
    I've got no dog in the fight at this point but I was a bit disappointed with the call. She kept pointing out that it's "too early" for forward guidance but offered little to no actual evidence of how the strategy is doing in the demand side (yes inventory steps are taken).

    For example some simple facts like "if we look at the sales, turns and margin metrics of a segment of merchandise (or stores) that we have updated we achieved results of xyz versus our overall business." Then you can go on to say that it's just a tiny sliver right now and doesn't mean the trend won't change blah blah.

    There was too much "I'm always in the the stores and we're feeling good, etc." To be fair lots of companies don't do a great job talking with investors so it's not a deal killer but one that is *so easy* to do better if you get some coaching and work through it with your general counsel. It's not promises or guidance but some color on what they are seeing in the business more specifically that was missing.

    If it works it's just more opportunity for the believers here at $1!
    Mar 21, 2014. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From The NephroGenex IPO (And Short It Later) [View article]
    Yeah has a negative bias but doesn't sound like a bad analysis. I didn't see the company roadshow so it's hard to know what the management side of the story is.
    Feb 24, 2014. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]
    I think are are some new trends in retail that could help DLIA get out of the mud. I've even noticed established players like NM implementing them. I have to get a clear view on what this new management team is going to do in terms of strategy, innovation and some new ways to grow before I get too excited. Definitely undervalued/turnaround here but I've got a few of those already!
    Feb 24, 2014. 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perceptron's Pivotal Inflection Point Could Lead To 75% Upside In 2014 [View article]
    The stock action reminds you that these small cap names are best played over the long term without over thinking it. If these guys can execute this should be a $30-45 stock over time. It's not whether it trades up to $16 or down to $12 over the next few weeks.

    I haven't completed my research and IV model on this name but hope to get that done soon. I thought management did a good job with the ER call. That's a plus in my book. The showstopper in most of these small companies for me is management but this one seems decent. Let the proof be in the execution this year....
    Feb 20, 2014. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Perceptron's Pivotal Inflection Point Could Lead To 75% Upside In 2014 [View article]
    Good article. I agree that diversification outside of autos would help the multiple big time. I wonder who their core competition is right now? That could limit growth. Stock is definitely undervalued here.
    Feb 6, 2014. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment