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  • Update: Seadrill Subsidiary To Raise $250 Million In Equity [View article]
    Goldman downgrades $SDRL to "Sell" this morning. Guess they weren't on the deal? Or something bad is going on...
    Sep 26, 2014. 06:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Metabolomics Company Calithera First In Sector To IPO [View article]
    Interesting article. $TINY remains undervalued but the market has a hard time giving them the credit they are due. It's weird that D-Wave is listed on the chart as a "biology" play. Doesn't seem right to me.
    Sep 25, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Might GT Advanced Technologies Announce On September 29, 2014? [View article]
    I'd tend to see a lowering of guidance as a good thing because it helps to reset the expectations and put a real bottom in the stock. Beats and small raises is what you want to do, not tell everyone you're going to hit a grand slam home run late in the game.

    The insider selling is a little surprising but hey, they got it right! I think investors who got caught up in the Apple surge and swoon have only themselves to blame for it. If this stock turns around and makes new highs over $20 it'll be quite a story.

    The situation reminds me a little of $FSLR back in 2012 - after the shares went from $150 to $20 they were still controversial and most people didn't believe in the turnaround and guidance. Then you saw a new base build and support growth back to $70/share. Took a couple of years though and $GTAT may still revisit lower prices before there's a long-term uptrend.
    Sep 18, 2014. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]
    They probably should just take this company private at this point. They can save some some money not being a public company and won't need to raise much debt to take out the market cap. Retail to me always feels high cost/low margin versus online which is still low margin but much lower cost and more variable versus fixed.
    Sep 18, 2014. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A First Look at IPass [View article]
    I don't think the future of iPass is in any way linked to iPhone 6.
    Sep 17, 2014. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Waited On The IPO But I'm Ready To Buy Trupanion At These Prices [View article]
    IV for $TRUP looks to be $13/share.
    Sep 15, 2014. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TeleCommunication Systems: Growth Drivers on All Fronts [View article]
    Hi Marty, You do good work. Any chance you've looked at this company lately? Seems like commercial is growing faster than government which helps the GM story and maybe earnings. They have debt but still... maybe interesting here.
    Sep 11, 2014. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Gorilla Glass Retains Its Dominance Over GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire [View article]
    Of course this is ipso post facto but it's still a good summary of parts of the "information mosaic" I think investors, particularly those speculating short term on the iPhone 6, went out of their way to overlook. I think $GTAT management was pretty clear insofar as what they said. Analysts ran amok based on what they wanted to hear and many traders went along with it.
    Sep 10, 2014. 07:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Path Forward: Bull Case Vs. Base Case [View article]
    Apple needs to have a gazillion phones ready to sell in less than two weeks. We heard plenty about yield issues. Had to know that they wouldn't risk not being able to deliver due to such a part constraint. So they went with plan B on the iPhones. The high end iWatch will be smaller volumes and in 2015 so Sapphire fine for that.

    $GTAT has to prove they can ramp sapphire enough to satisfy a giant like Apple. That's hard, takes time. No reason it can't or won't happen but it requires patience.

    I think people got a little crazy with this announcement which is unfortunate.

    In terms of Matt I think he was a little too strong in his conviction and tone but sometimes you need to do that to get people to pay attention. Unless you get real inside (and illegal) inside information you just are never going to be able to be 100% sure in the short term.

    This still seems like a company worth watching and owning for long-term gains if they can commercialize and ramp these cutting edge technologies. Plenty to prove.
    Sep 10, 2014. 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    I also think it is perfectly fine for people to publish articles and have positions consistent with the conclusions - research is part of the investment process after all. As long as those positions are acknowledged so it may help readers detect bias.

    I've been burned plenty of times being short companies based on numbers, DCF analysis and all that stuff. Take Zillow for example on the way up. Seeing future fundamentals and understanding sentiment and expectations are more important.

    Remember the key to happy investing - do your work and manage risk!
    Sep 9, 2014. 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    I think we are in agreement. Our only difference is that based on what I have seen I believe that GLUU has a real chance to do what you believe they will not.

    Yes barriers to build and launch a game are very low. But it still very very very hard to get attention. GLUU can take a game and leverage it to make it a real success. I believe KK is an example of this but agree we need more.

    Mobile is so big, and so powerful that if GLUU gets this right the returns will be large. Yes there is risk. I see this glass half full.
    Sep 8, 2014. 04:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    Some valid points on GLUU but also at least one very big mistake. Point 2 in your business model discussion is wrong.

    GLUU is precisely interesting because it is pursuing a strategy where they can use their position and technology as a platform. KK is a perfect example. And there have been and will be more new releases of popular games. Just look at how Deer Hunter spawned Dino Hunter for one.

    This is such an important point to not understand and misrepresent here that I am very disappointed with the authors of this note.

    I agree GLUU is risky and has plenty to prove but this note shows a lack of understanding of the company and the market there serving.

    I have been long the stock for some time but scaled my position based on the varying enthusiasm and share price. I think your points may apply to KING which is minting money but so far only from one game. I also work very hard to prevent any positions from coloring my analysis.
    Sep 8, 2014. 10:09 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Mobile Payments Will Require Partnerships And NFC [View article]
    Is this why some NFC-related companies like $INVE are trading up so much into this Apple announcement? I suspect there are many more out there too.
    Sep 3, 2014. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon Appears To Be On The Mend, But Investors Lack Conviction [View article]
    Good overview of the company challenges. I have noticed that there is more viable GRPN activity, at least in the Boston area with people now figuring out how to use it in ways that work economically.

    GRPN used aggressive sales techniques to drive lots of deals that shouldn't have been done and felt the massive backlash. Now it's more organic. How fast it ramps and how far it goes is hard to tell but there is plenty of market opportunity in doing promotions better.
    Sep 1, 2014. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Path Forward: Bull Case Vs. Base Case [View article]
    I've been trying to consider what could stand in the way of this stock working as an investment (and understand what the shorts see here.)

    The two primary risks I can see are that the rapid scaling up of the company is simply beyond the capabilities of the management team and they mess it up - hiring too many bad people, managers not working well together, etc. It's a common reason some very rapid growth stories fail to work out.

    The second reason would be much lower pricing as the end markets grow and mature which could invalidate future forecasts of revenue growth, margins and earnings.

    Even with some portion of these risks becoming manifest the ultimate valuation of $GTAT seems to settle somewhere in the middle of the current price range and the $87 objective the analyst has.

    As some of the old equity sales guys would say - "if this story still works if I cut your price target in half then it's a buy!"

    This seems to be one of those stories and worth being long here but prepared for some short-term disappointments.
    Aug 31, 2014. 08:41 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment