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  • First Solar's Stopped Project Renews Demand Fears [View article]
    FSLR is an interesting investment opportunity as the "gorilla" in the segment. You touched on the big fear here which is demand but I think that investors also see massive capacity as a significant problem. FSLR seems like the best house in a bad neighborhood.

    Your table shows combined revenues of $10B but with a loss of $1.2B. If a few players would be taken out or folded up then we might see a more profitable industry. Right now it looks too much like DRAM to me.
    Aug 31 04:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Déjà Vu - Amazon's Chart Is Peaking Like It's 1999 [View article]
    It looks "overbought" here but there's a big difference in terms of the proven viability of the Amazon model now versus in 1999/2000.

    Back then many feared that Amazon would face stiff competition in their core business that would limit their success. Turned out that Amazon one. Who competes with them in their core business (selling stuff online?)

    Amazon does have competition of course but they are coming in adjacent areas like tablets/mobile and to some extent goods and services as they go digital. (Netflix for example as a substitute for buying a DVD.)

    There's a trading pattern and valuation argument that says the shares might drop from here but the fundamentals remain very solid and the company has executed better than anyone in their industry. (I agree that the recent bull$#!t around Kindle sales is getting tiresome but that's really a PR/marketing issue.)
    Aug 31 04:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Amazon Eureka Moment [View article]
    For toilets and bathroom fixtures I expect Home Depot and Lowes will have a sustainable advantage! (also lumber, sheetrock, gravel, topsoil, and windows.)
    Aug 30 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Amazon Eureka Moment [View article]
    Good description of why Amazon has and continues to do so well. It disrupts the entire consumer purchasing space which is basically limitless. The stock ebbs and flows but the shorts are always harping on margins and valuation without acknowledging that the company is on a path to basically supply a huge % of consumer purchases.
    Aug 29 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Prime Pickle [View article]
    It's a valid point - Amazon Prime pricing is flat but costs have risen.

    Two things - 1) Amazon Prime was brilliant and helped not just Amazon but the whole market. EBay finally figured it out and acquired GSI Commerce to try and do this too. Consumers pay an annual fee for basically making Amazon their defacto choice for buying any product that is offered there.

    2) Margins matter and Amazon probably will have to do something. As a big Prime user since day 1 there are some options that would work. The first is to just compute two fees for shipping. They already do this for Prime with two day (free) and next day ($3.99). Taking this a step further and showing something like shipping: Two Day - Prime $0.99, Regular $5.99, Next Day - Prime $4.99, Regular $15.99. Even if this is item-dependent the message is pretty clear and the $79 value is easy to see if you buy even once a month.

    One final point - higher energy costs apply to driving to the store as well. Google helpfully gives you a fuel cost as part of directions. Consumers have learned that driving extra miles to save a few dollars is dumb if gas is expensive.

    Amazon may be a very expensive stock but they will figure this one out.
    Aug 23 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Stock Doubles On Patent Potential [View article]
    It's not just time but also resources and money that come into play; especially when one side is massive and the other small. Google has a massive team and budget. They can make it hard for a company like Vringo to complete the process. Fatigue sets in...
    Aug 22 03:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroLogistics Delivers 9.58% Yield In A Tough Enviornment [View article]
    What about buying the shares here and selling Dec 12:50 calls? The yield would be about 10% for six months (divs + premium)
    Jul 30 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroLogistics Delivers 9.58% Yield In A Tough Enviornment [View article]
    Good thought on the options. Like the stock they seem to offer some potential inefficiency trades. A good one to watch going into the next Q.
    Jul 30 03:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fantasy Keeps Growing [View article]
    Yeah and third party sales keep growing and affiliate fees have declined which help margins.

    As far as the kindle is concerned. You don't need an amazon device to enjoy kindle reading. iPads, iPhones, laptops and Android devices all work fine. And even tablet owners like to have a kindle for reading in bed, on the beach, etc.

    You can go round and round all day and night on this stuff but to do so misses the point for people that have made the "core position" decision of which there appear to be many.

    Sure the shares may be a little ahead of themselves but they are still in a leading role in a massive reinvention of retail which is a gigantic market.

    I'm not arguing from a point of view on the stock here as I've already said it's above our IV and probably overbought but I can say that for our family like many we basically view Amazon as our primary purchase channel for everything from batteries to books. Generally best selection, lowest price, fastest delivery and one click buying make it better than anything else. It's only for purchases needs that Amazon can't satisfy that we go outside. This is true for some substantive number of people.

    Also on international I can tell you that over the long term Amazon is going to win big there. Inventory levels are pathetically low, prices are high, delivery takes long and customer service is often lacking. It will take time but it will happen.
    Jul 27 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fantasy Keeps Growing [View article]
    Amazon is trading above our IV estimate of around $225/share. Maybe one reason the stock price defies analysis like this is that it's simply a "core holding." We've seen this before with stocks like which made losses and traded at nutty high multiples but investors have held it tightly for years and have no intention of selling unless something very fundamental changes in the market or the company story. So yes it's expensive, maybe a bit overbought. And it would make sense to diversify a bit by owning shares in related companies from EBAY to SPSC to play the trend.
    Jul 27 04:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At The Vringo Patent Ruling [View article]
    I don't see that the merger adds any increased legitimacy to the case. If anything it seems to complicate matters a bit more. IP could have settled with Google and all made a nice life if that was the only goal/probable outcome.
    Jul 6 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And There It Is, The Final Nail In Kindle Fire's Coffin [View article]
    I know this is the daily short AMZN affirmation column but I don't think Google is worried about AMZN here. They are worried about Apple and Facebook. The vast, vast majority of the Amazon business is selling stuff, not tablets. Yes the digital book market is critical for Amazon and they make eReaders plus the Kindle. But the Kindle software and Amazon ebook matters more than the devices. My Kindle is okay but yes, I'd buy one of these Google things now if was in the market and give my Kindle to one of my kids. And the first thing I'd do is download the Kindle application on it and use it to buy and read Amazon content.

    Amazon is a complex story and it's a tempting to attack single aspects and predict their demise. Amazon has issues but the Kindle/Nexus battle isn't one of them.
    Jun 27 05:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maxwell Technologies' CEO Discusses Q1 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I'd like to own $MXWL but management seems squirrelly on a few points here. Not the least of which is that they are relying on an unnamed "consultant" as the basis of their China business and a big chunk of their revenue.

    There are also too many levels of indirection and woes about "government spending" slowdowns. Maybe business comes back and this stock makes a big recover. Management isn't providing much confidence though.
    Jun 27 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Automaker Or Graphic Novel? [View article]
    Tesla is doing something important in automobiles. Probably has as much to do with technology, design and branding as anything else. But it's not hype.


    We've also dealt with "range anxiety" -
    Jun 27 10:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At The Vringo Patent Ruling [View article]
    I think VRNG has more to offer than simple public entity. Their relationships with carriers can fit into an IP context. The company hasn't articulated much along these lines (or it's just drowned out by all the fervor over the patents.)

    As an outside investor be aware that this is a situation where new information will travel quickly among insiders and big investors.
    Jun 25 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment