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  • Did GT Advanced Technologies Mislead Investors? [View article]
    I am not a legal expert but I would bet that the management team is going to be on the hook for some serious crime. There's no question that they "painted a picture" that was very different than what their business metrics were indicating. If a few emails surface then these guys are in some serious trouble. My 2c but that's all.
    Oct 7, 2014. 11:35 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    Some valid points on GLUU but also at least one very big mistake. Point 2 in your business model discussion is wrong.

    GLUU is precisely interesting because it is pursuing a strategy where they can use their position and technology as a platform. KK is a perfect example. And there have been and will be more new releases of popular games. Just look at how Deer Hunter spawned Dino Hunter for one.

    This is such an important point to not understand and misrepresent here that I am very disappointed with the authors of this note.

    I agree GLUU is risky and has plenty to prove but this note shows a lack of understanding of the company and the market there serving.

    I have been long the stock for some time but scaled my position based on the varying enthusiasm and share price. I think your points may apply to KING which is minting money but so far only from one game. I also work very hard to prevent any positions from coloring my analysis.
    Sep 8, 2014. 10:09 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stock Becoming The Ultimate Safe Haven [View article]
    Company has a great brand, good product management, proprietary core technology, best-in-class software, distribution and solid overall execution. All with a reasonable valuation. I don't see much company risk here although I do take the point that as a big percentage of the market itself it will be harder for AAPL to deliver huge percentage returns, especially if the market is weak.
    Dec 13, 2014. 09:58 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Facing A Challenge From Google's Android [View article]
    I have to admit I don't understand analysis based on incremental technology inside the product cycles of established competitors. I could write the reverse of this article with a headline staying "Android about to face tougher competition with the debut of Apple Watch."

    Apple has been competing intensely with the Android ecosystem for years now. Nothing new to see or talk about here. Apple has a proven model that combines their stores with software and a robust ecosystem around their proprietary architecture.

    The Apple customer doesn't make purchase decisions around bits or performance - they buy it for design, software, content, function, support, and brand. I think the technology-based arguments might apply to the Android versus Microsoft market but that's a whole other question and one that seems pretty minor (at least for now.)
    Dec 5, 2014. 05:26 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon's Droid Is the Real Deal [View article]
    Steve Jobs is said to be a pretty polarizing individual. That's good and bad sometimes. Apple seems to have made an enemy of Verizon which is an important member of the ecosystem. AT&T is a good partner but is that what Apple really wants?

    If Verizon can execute well (a big question I know) they can create a pretty powerful "not the iPhone" choice for consumers, particularly Verizon FiOS customers.

    Until recently Apple has had an "easy schedule" of games to play. Microsoft has been crippled by their own lousy execution and Vista, Google hasn't had a mobile offering, Nokia has been MIA on smart phones forever and RIM is great but too tied to business users to get in their way.

    Now we have what looks like a decent platform with Android coupled with good phones from Motorola and others and a Microsoft that may have a decent product cycle in front of them.

    Doesn't have to be a bad thing for Apple to have some decent competition. Maybe their products will get even better, even faster. Everyone should love a challenge.
    Oct 19, 2009. 09:06 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Path Forward: Bull Case Vs. Base Case [View article]
    I've been trying to consider what could stand in the way of this stock working as an investment (and understand what the shorts see here.)

    The two primary risks I can see are that the rapid scaling up of the company is simply beyond the capabilities of the management team and they mess it up - hiring too many bad people, managers not working well together, etc. It's a common reason some very rapid growth stories fail to work out.

    The second reason would be much lower pricing as the end markets grow and mature which could invalidate future forecasts of revenue growth, margins and earnings.

    Even with some portion of these risks becoming manifest the ultimate valuation of $GTAT seems to settle somewhere in the middle of the current price range and the $87 objective the analyst has.

    As some of the old equity sales guys would say - "if this story still works if I cut your price target in half then it's a buy!"

    This seems to be one of those stories and worth being long here but prepared for some short-term disappointments.
    Aug 31, 2014. 08:41 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Gorilla Glass Retains Its Dominance Over GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire [View article]
    Of course this is ipso post facto but it's still a good summary of parts of the "information mosaic" I think investors, particularly those speculating short term on the iPhone 6, went out of their way to overlook. I think $GTAT management was pretty clear insofar as what they said. Analysts ran amok based on what they wanted to hear and many traders went along with it.
    Sep 10, 2014. 07:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Elements to Steve Jobs' Bold Prediction for 2010 [View article]
    This is an excellent post. It also makes me revisit the thinking that maybe Microsoft needs to go into the hardware business (buy Dell, it's actually quite cheap and still has very high returns on investment capital) and get into retail more aggressively. Of course we've already said they need to buy RIM. That seems to be growing more urgent by the day.
    Jan 7, 2010. 09:13 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have a Bad Feeling About This Market [View article]
    The comments here generate some good discussion for SA to consider. SA is basically a distribution platform that also builds and offers some of their own content (like transcripts.)

    Regardless of qualifications nobody has ever been very good about predicting the stock market, especially in the short term. The same is true with big sections of the market and generally individual stocks.

    Readers of SA can put the more credible and experienced contributors on their "watch list" and just read their stuff. I do this because there are a few people on SA that really know their stuff. You can also often take their original content from the blog and bring it into your feed reader. So generally speaking users should be able to easily filter content and read what they want.

    However the Yahoo Finance thing is more problematic. It's true that you really don't want total junk going up there. SA doesn't and neither does Yahoo. (The same is true for Google Finance where the "discussions" end up being absurdly useless.)

    The question is should SA be more aggressive at filtering what they push "up" to sites like Yahoo Finance. I think so. First of all I think that an obvious one is first time contributors with no verifiable identity and background probably don't belong. But I think SA can do more filtering, top-down or collaborative, to upgrade the public view of content in places like Yahoo.

    The last point is that people who are on the system and posting inane content or comments should probably be removed. I notice that especially when people have stock positions that run counter to a post they are very quick on the trigger to post some negative comments.

    I've had it happen quite a few times and have contacted some of the people. They often then say "Ah well I'm sorry I understand what you are saying. It's just that this is my biggest position and when I saw your note I really saw red."

    If you are feeling angry it's probably a good idea to not hit the Publish button.
    Feb 7, 2009. 08:39 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightbridge: Check Out This $1.40 Stock Everybody Else Is Ignoring [View article]
    I took a quick look. Most of this info is from the management presentation and the website but it's a fine overview.

    On the plus side the management team seems pretty much "wired in" to the industry and has all the connections needed to get something done in this very regulated business.

    On the minus side (big one) they haven't even started making these in full size yet so they've not been really tested or used yet. When you try and scale something like this up it can be tricky.

    The company and management team seems very promotional for a development stage company. Lots of CNBC time.

    I'm taking a pass on this one in terms of doing more work on it. Doesn't mean it won't be a success but there are other tasty fish to fry out there.
    Dec 19, 2013. 12:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Driving The Selloff? [View article]
    One can speculate all day long on what drives short term price movements. What does it get you? Like the weather it's interesting so we like to talk about it.

    Bespoke does a nice job of pulling little data nuggets and graphs to make the conversation more interesting.
    Sep 4, 2011. 12:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BYD: Clearly a Growth Play [View article]
    It's been said these guys are far behind but they "make five years of progress every year."
    Dec 20, 2010. 10:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Cloud Computing Future Is Hopeless Under Steve Ballmer [View article]
    Sorry AdamLewis06 that you find the article uneducated. I'm very familiar with the enterprise features and functions that you described. I've been in enterprise computing for about 30 years, including a decade with IBM. So I do know of what you speak.

    I'm also familiar and have used and evaluated Azure which to me is just a service-enabled interface to the normal PC and server-based Microsoft software applications. It could have been and might still be more but it's been quite unimpressive so far. The only reason many small companies build on Azure is that Microsoft is paying them to do so.

    I'd add that there are now some very large enterprise IT firms that have shifted to Apple laptops after decades of being "Thinkpad-only" shops. These are giant technology-savvy organizations. They still run Microsoft Exchange in the back end but the new money is not flowing to Microsoft.

    Microsoft is admitting that they "missed" the shift to mobile computing which is gigantic. And in my analysis they are missing the cloud thanks in no small part to the uninformed, bullying and closed minded leadership of Mr. Steve Ballmer.

    Frankly I get frustrated too when I think about it because Microsoft does indeed have major assets in enterprise computing and a giant power in Windows, IE, XBox, and Office. But their richness may prevent them from being hungry enough to see the future for what it is and how poorly they are positioned for it.
    Jun 6, 2010. 03:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Volvo's Plug-In Electric SUV Make Life Difficult For Tesla's Model X? [View article]
    At the most basic level I just can't see wanting to have two separate systems to drive my car. It's like putting in radiant heat and also a forced air system. Double the cost, double the worry and double the work. In the case of the Volvo I have to plug in *and* get gas along with oil changes and all that.

    It is a compromise that will appeal to some people. However I'm more intrigued by something like a Prius or adding stop/start technology to radically improve gas mileage without having to do any charging. Conventional vehicles can get much better in terms of performance and gas mileage which is a good thing. For example I believe Volvo just announced the first 4-cylinder engine that generates 300hp using two chargers. A mid-sized SUV could get 40+mpg highway which is pretty good.

    But pure electric is a very different experience - no gas, no oil, no noise, great performance and no polluting (if you care about that.)
    Dec 1, 2014. 04:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Elephant(s) In The Room In GoPro's Business [View article]
    Excellent article. I've done a little work on $GRPO and expect the stock to "settle" into a range close to what you've outlined here. I think our intrinsic valuation model pointed to the mid-$40's if memory serves.

    There do seem to be quite a few alternatives to the Hero from white label makers and branded firms like Sony. It remains to be seen if Hero can become the "iPod of the action camera space" to preserve both share and margins.

    The media and social networking angle is interesting. At first easy to dismiss but the company has done better at this than I thought they might. On one hand companies like Under Armor figured out how to leverage this type of strategy to win in a market against the likes of Nike. But $GRPO feels closer to $SKUL in that they must face the reality of the CE business which you point out is a tough place to make money. I love the buffet quote.

    I think he also said he'd rather invest with a mediocre management team in a great business then a great management team in a lousy business. He's not perfect but deserves to be listened to.

    Thanks again for this analysis and article. Makes me want to own $AMBA but I expect they'll get some stiff competition from somebody soon. Maybe a second source opportunity for $GRPO?
    Oct 25, 2014. 09:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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