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  • Duoyuan Printing Looks Cheap after IPO [View instapost]
    I believe the company has problems. The long thesis is closed. The management should be able to provide Deloitte the information requested. Firing the auditor creates an trust issue.
    Sep 20 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Telestone Technologies So Volatile? [View article]
    Ask people from China Mobile or the other wireless operators, they'll tell you it's a low barrier to entry business. It's products may be selling well currently, but technology wise, not something too difficult that competitors can't make.

    Even the company itself said it has low barriers to entry. Quoted from TSTC 10-K:
    We face intense competition.
    The market for wireless coverage solutions services is intensely competitive in the PRC. There are other wireless coverage service providers which we compete with for business. There are low barriers to entry for new competitors in this market and we may experience a negative impact as a result of increased competition. In addition, our existing or potential competitors may in the future achieve greater market acceptance and gain additional market share, which in turn could reduce our revenues.
    Feb 26 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Telestone Technologies So Volatile? [View article]
    All I can say is, show me the money. If a business can't generate cash flow now and in the future, it's not in a good position. If it serves only 3-4 super powers, even worse.
    Good luck and wish you exit at the right time.
    Feb 26 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable Goods: 'Oops' [View article]
    Ignoring the seasonality effect, comparing January number to December number is not an apple to apple comparison. Excluding transportation and defense, the January number isn't great, but I'm not convinced of your dire picture.
    Feb 25 05:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Rises to Highest Level Since 2003 [View article]
    This 5.7% GDP number is real, government spending contribution is negative(-0.2%), according to the report.
    Slower inventory liquidation contributed to 3.4%, which is a big share, but normal in a typical recovery.
    More importantly, PCE grow at 2.7%, and equipment & software spending up 13.3%. These are bright spots that signals real consumer and business spendings.
    Jan 29 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sliding Back into the Great Recession [View article]
    This article is overly misleading by quoting a Jan 2008 Phily fed survey, which showed a very bleak picture of the economy then.
    The Jan 2010 survey presents improving business activities both currently and in the next 6 month.
    Jan 24 03:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims Break Downtrend [View article]
    Agree that 4 week moving average probably a more stable indicator.
    From latest Phily fed report, for the second month, the percentage of firms reporting increases in employment was higher than the percentage reporting declines. For the ninth consecutive month, the percentage of firms expecting employment to increase over the next six months (28 percent) exceeded the percentage expecting declines (14 percent).
    So I feel employment situation is still improving.
    Jan 21 05:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in 2010: The Opportunity Continues [View article]
    Thank you for sharing.
    I agree that ECRI's leading indicator is indeed very good.
    Jan 4 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip: Priced Beyond Reason [View article]
    CTRP is not cheap, but it has the reason to be expensive. It offers the best travel solution in China, if you really use these services. And there is no evidence at all that it's losing market share to competition, as it continues to outgrow the industry.
    Its 2010 EPS is expected to grow nearly 40% from 2009 to $1.88. Standing in the year of 2010 already, I don't feel $72, or 37x 2010 EPS is outrageous. It's not as cheap as $65 to buy at this time, but I certainly won't short it.
    Jan 4 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting on Android over iPhone Is Blind Reasoning [View article]
    I have met quite some people in the past few days who recently bought the Motorola Droid phone and commented very favorably about the phone and the Android OS. Google did a great job integrating email, contacts, google docs etc into the mobile phone OS, extending them seamlessly into the mobile internet world. This is very powerful and I can see that it'll become popular soon. If iphone can't come up with a solution to counter, it's future will be limited. There is a real threat from Google.
    Dec 20 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment