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  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    mara_sarena,

    Yeah, the car rental merger stuff.......good point....

    Since LO has agreed to the merger, MO is up from 43 to 50 or 17% or so....LO was high 40's-low 50's before stock started moving up in anticipation of deal...so even in a busted deal LO is likely to be 58-ish...And all the dividend guys, funds, ETF's will have to add it back so there's a pretty hard floor here...all my opinion
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    11:12 EDT - Representatives from Reynolds (RAI) and Lorillard (LO) are scheduled to meet with FTC officials today, notes RBC, and it sees 3 outcome. There's agency approval of the cigarette makers' proposed merger, something the investment bank sees as likely; approval with "modest concession," which RBC sees being more likely; or the FTC suing to block the deal. It thinks that's unlikely. Shares of RAI and LO are down again today, underperforming the broader market, as speculation continues to swirl around what decision the FTC will make
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Chris-There's nobody with a deeper idea bench than you so I'm sure your drawing board will have many colors on it soon.

    Even with an FTC vote to block the deal, Commissioners don't need to follow the rec.....would like to see some stats on past deals that the Commissioners overruled the TC rec
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    John-The calls look fairly illiquid to me. What strikes/months are you seeing? I am in the deal via short puts though they now have become illiquid as well.
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    From all I read it seems that ALTR is likely to be bought and worthy of a pre-deal play. I haven't looked at call spreads yet...but am short the Apr 37 and 38 put. Intel is trying to further diversify away from PC's and by buying Altera they would add to their #1 position in data......of course as they say the deal could still fall apart
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: 4 Reasons It's The Top U.S. Telecom Investment [View article]
    Very good article. Excellent point about $T buying $DTV for its Latin America exposure. One point though that deal hasn't closed as of yet and still has to get through the FTC.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'll Tell You Why. [View instapost]
    Isaac Asimov spoke at my college graduation...to this day it was the best speech I have ever heard
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    Noticed the 2-plus-million buy and wondered if it was sanofi buying in the open market. It has been said here before that another tender makes sense for them...whether or not the next milestone is reached
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    MT-Do you try to buy an ITM call and sell an ATM or slightly OTM call? Of course it is hard to predict where the buyout number will be in many cases.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    The reason that there was volatility in the ARUN options was that the deal was not confirmed.

    In general one can sell vol on deal rumors and do well if the merger gets announced. However with the deals that don't happen, the stock will decline as will the options....the vol will decline as well but still there will likely will large losses.

    At the moment ALTR is rumored to be bought by Intel. So one could sell inflated cov calls or puts and buy them back after the announcement.....of course if no announcement watch out below....

    I happen to be short apr 37 and 38 puts.....each potential deal is different, and strikes and months chosen are key. Years of experience help in deciding when to get in pre-deal. Many arbs won't touch pre-deal stocks by the way.
    Mar 30, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    For what it is worth, there has been very little put buying in LO recently.....and the stock has been strong....

    Also long here...
    Mar 29, 2015. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Also long ODP. Like Chris I expect a 2nd...and I wouldn't be surprised to see this not close until 2016.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha [View article]
    AKARALPH,

    There are more qualified writers on SA than you say. I spend many hours daily on the site and can list 150 or so authors/comment writers that can succeed in getting subscribers in numbers to pay for their high level writing/stock picking. Many of the names wouldn't be the obvious, bigger names writers on SA, though Chris would be one of them
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Siemens has wanted to buy Dresser Rand since 2011. If Dresser didn't come to the table back last summer it is likely that Siemens would have gone hostile.
    They are not trying to get out of the deal. They are looking forward to it closing, gaining the synergies from the deal and growing their company.


    All my opinion (and book) of course.
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Yes. The trend has been to switch to a dutch auction model. Those are not risk-free. CBSO was great.....never know when the next one shows up though
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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