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Special Situations and Arbs

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  • Chasing Historical Performance [View instapost]
    Momentum investing does work. It is not my style but many have made fortunes investing with the trend. I for one thought twitter was insanely overvalued at 50 then it went to 74. Tesla looked outrageous to me last year at 100 before doubling. Investors business daily and hundreds of newsletters make their living off momentum. Again I am on the value team and mean reversion is in my DNA. In different markets different styles and strategies work
    Apr 18 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Company Is A Steal Under $9 And I'm Buying Again [View article]
    Market not liking the recent deal.....but I disagree as I think it is a smart one........
    Apr 17 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation - Low-Risk 99% Annualized Return In 3 Weeks With American Realty Healthcare [View article]
    it would count as 297 shares.
    Apr 16 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ten Least Wanted List [View instapost]
    With tax time here and the year almost 30% done I thought I would check in on my top 10 stock picks for 2014......

    *9 of 10 are positive on the year
    *5 of 10 are up double-digits or more
    *2 of 10 (RGLD,GCVRZ) are up 40% or more
    *AUY is the only one in the red, being down 24 cents.

    Now what?

    I am a big believer in seasonal patterns. I am macro bearish for the next two quarters. Here's what I think of the ten stocks at this point:

    EGO-Slave to price of Gold. Stock hasn't acted well. All in cash costs under $1000 Gold and good management have me waiting for this to turn. The wait may be a while and the eventual climb up could come from lower levels.
    LT:BUY ST:HOLD

    AUY-Street doesn't like bid for Osisko. In a go-go Gold growth environment AUY might have gone up significantly on the news but in our current conservative Gold stock world spending is often frowned upon. Like EGO, this is likely going higher but the next few months could be dicey.
    LT:BUY ST:HOLD

    CTB-Everyday gets us one day away from one of the most botched attempted buyouts. It is like after a divorce there is a period of catching one's breathe, taking it day by day and getting back to normalcy. Stock chart has been building a long base. Should hold up better than most in downdraft and buyout or rumor of one wouldn't be unreasonable to expect before year end.
    BUY

    MOT/POT-Both have formed nice bases the past 6 months. More upside than downside. Should hit high end of lowered revenue guidance. POT rumored to be bought by BHP. Not sure I believe that.
    BUY on dips

    GCVRZ-Risky one here. Lemtrada application resubmitted. Sanofi bought back some rights at average of 78 cents. Good to be on same side as company. They have more info than anyone else. I'm thinking we print at least $1 in 2014.
    BUY

    LH/DGX-The hated lab companies have rebounded nicely so far. Both are ahead by double digit percentiles. There is still a ton of pessimism in these shares. Good opportunity to sell OTM puts on them. This is one of the only group's that missed the five year bull market.
    Sell Puts

    ANF-Good start. But teen retailers smell. Only a true contrarion would be in these names. I'm not bullish on the group at this point. I am out of ANF. I do have a small position in ARO, thinking it is so bad that they might get taken out. Sycamore is as smart as it gets when it comes to retail.
    SELL

    RGLD_The royalty companies are my favorite way to play the Gold miners. Less risk and plenty of reward. If Gold were to have another down leg and RGLD were to fall back 20 points or so this would be the stock I would add to.
    HOLD and BUY aggressively if Gold plummets toward 1000
    Apr 16 01:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale: A Potential Buyout On The Horizon [View article]
    Lot of buying at end of day.....With the stock where it is it's just as risky being short this name as being long
    Apr 15 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale: A Potential Buyout On The Horizon [View article]
    Interesting article. I do give the Jones Group closing as a reason for the delay some validity...though Sycamore does have enough people to do a few things at once.

    Would ARO sell for 8? I don't know. But the insiders having options at 5 is significant.

    I have a small position which I think will wind up being profitable but it is pure risk
    Apr 15 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loral Liquidation Looms [View article]
    Mike....we can only hope that this is decided this week...it isn't too damaging to LORL and the unknown is removed from the equation. Then a quick sale may be realistic
    Apr 15 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Could Double Again: Here's How [View article]
    I say 20 before 80 but that's what makes a market
    Apr 15 01:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Loral Liquidation Looms [View article]
    http://onforb.es/1gzeYGu

    LORL decision this week
    Apr 15 01:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • D.E. Master Blenders 1753: A Low-Risk Squeeze-Out With An 8.2% Gross Return [View article]
    I tried to buy this and never got a fill...had limit order in at 16.02 for three weeks...oh well
    Apr 13 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    Eli-The site continues to be fabulous. I am impressed by the constant tweaking and adapting that your management makes. I am one of SA's biggest fans. I have been busy the past 6 months or so ghostwriting an options book and look forward to getting back to writing for SA soon....in the meantime I read and profit from it.
    Apr 10 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha's Positioning For 2014 Update [View instapost]
    Chris-What do you think is a realistic price for OSHC to sell for assuming they are sold in 2014?
    Apr 9 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal: High Risk For Bankruptcy Within 2 Quarters [View article]
    Will JRCC get a new symbol?
    Apr 8 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Happy Anniversary: End Of Moratorium Makes OBA Financial A Potential Deal Target [View article]
    Chris-Thank you for this idea last year. For those that don't need immediate action this was a low risk hold but a happy ending
    Apr 8 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loral Liquidation Looms [View article]
    Haven't seen any update from trial...was on schedule to end this week.....stock down from 80-plus to mid 67's.....hardly any puts traded though which is a positive......
    Apr 7 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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