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  • Full House Resorts: Still Betting On The CEO [View article]
    Vince,

    I agree with that statement. I believe Gary @ CZR made a comment about this phenomenon back in May on their conference call.

    Also, thanks for bumping my hotel math to the top
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full House Resorts: Still Betting On The CEO [View article]
    Also, I dont think Harrah's is getting crushed by players leaving. In fact, they had a rather large traffic increase over last year in May.

    The smoking ban seems to simply result in less slot drop per player. However, I wish they were leaving Harrah's in droves.
    Jun 12, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full House Resorts: Still Betting On The CEO [View article]
    Hi,

    I've been following this as well. I just wanted to chime in on your last comment about the Silver Slipper maybe doing well. (I just posted this on VIC, but pasting here).

    * Called the Silver Slipper and talked to reservations lady.
    * She said their occupancy is about 50% on Monday-Weds. Full Thurs-Sun.
    * Prices are $70 on Mon-Weds. $219 on Thurs-Sun.
    * I think this implies about $3mm+ of incremental revenue from the hotel per yr, assuming I discount the winter/fall months by 50% vs today.
    * Increases to $4mm+ once they open the remaining units (getting to 120ish units)

    Check this dropbox link for the napkin-math:
    https://db.tt/et93Sbtw
    Jun 12, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intrawest Has A Bright Future Ahead [View article]
    It was a scary few months. I owned it through the recent rout in size.

    I feel bad for not pounding the table in the messages of my writeup on VIC. The selloff was a huge opportunity, likely linked to poor weather in Colorado in Feb/March.

    This went from cheap & maybe-catalyst, to cheap & visible path to catalyst realization (RE development). I think we will do well and have added significantly over the past 2 months.
    May 28, 2015. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intrawest Has A Bright Future Ahead [View article]
    This is my largest equity holding currently, for none of the reasons you listed.

    There's a writeup on VIC from 6months ago or so.
    May 28, 2015. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    He's trying to stop them from lighting money on fire...

    I think we would all try to do the same at OMEX, but the money has already been burned.
    Nov 21, 2014. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halyard Health: Kimberly Clark Spin-Off Will Reward Investors In The Intermediate And Long Term [View article]
    Gibor,

    The most likely strategy for this company is M&A - whether it be acquiring to become a growth stock, or selling to someone bigger.

    However, this was a tax-free spin. To preserve the tax benefit, conventional tax wisdom states that these guys cant sell for 24ish months from the spin date.
    Nov 17, 2014. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halyard Health: Kimberly Clark Spin-Off Will Reward Investors In The Intermediate And Long Term [View article]
    I havent spent much time looking at net income; however, I do know that in the last 6 months they expensed ~$50mm of restructuring (for closing a plant in Thailand that they dont use very efficiently) and ~$26mm for pre-spin-off transaction costs (paying advisors, lawyers, shuffling chairs, etc).

    I would hightly recommend you look at EBITDA instead. Net Income is pretty useless here due to lack of comparability.
    Nov 12, 2014. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    I have no doubt you will - and then some.
    Nov 11, 2014. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    Again, on your points regarding Mexico:

    Any schmuck can file a complaint in Mexico, then publish an inflammatory article to make it sound like it actually means something. Let me know when they have the prosecutor onboard - then I'll reconsider my statement.

    The real question: will anything material to INFU come from this? (no, OMEX will run out of liquidity first)
    Nov 11, 2014. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halyard Health: Kimberly Clark Spin-Off Will Reward Investors In The Intermediate And Long Term [View article]
    Im a fan. Own it, but have a hard time recommending it to friends/family due to how whippy the price has been - they dont have the stomach for near-term losses that I do.

    With that said, I think: 1) mgmt is strong; 2) its cheap; 3) they will get on the accretive acquisition bandwagon to drive growth on the med device side; and 4) they operate a pretty stable supplies / hospital consumables business that will help generate growth currency.

    Each of the 2 businesses is about half of their EBITDA currently. Comps imply a 12x multiple on $257mm of EBITDA. Looks like this is trading south of 9x now.

    In the near-term - there's 2 things that could change sentiment and drive profitability. 1) Oil prices - 70% of their sales are derived from oil (its their largest manufacturing input), they are a buyer of spot oil (which is increasing their margins currently due to declining prices), and do not pass-on savings to customers; and 2) ebola (which i am far less certain of).
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blucora: A Heavily Discounted Portfolio Of High-Growth Assets [View article]
    Well, looks like mgmt lied about the outlook for the last few months.

    Very glad im not still holding it.

    I think there is a still a good thesis around taxact here - but I'm now fairly sure mgmt it dirty. May revisit after C-suite replacements occur.
    Nov 6, 2014. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    Reported all of these chats. Hopefully they get removed.

    Ive read many of RJM's writeups and thought he did good work. He's done a good job at INFU and did all the right things to create value for his investors.

    I took a quick look at OMEX for curiosity's sake - I'm standing by @ the death knell.
    Nov 5, 2014. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saratoga Investment Corp: Potential Catalyst For A Revaluation [View article]
    Sailfish,

    You should be voting FOR buybacks below NAV.
    And voting AGAINST issuances below NAV.
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Catalysts And Sum Of The Parts Shows Potential For BBX Capital [View article]
    or if the merger terms are re-cut. If that happens, BBX is likely to get less than the current terms, I think.

    Not sure how likely it is, given that mgmt is controlling the process - but I certainly think its possible.

    You are just getting paid for shouldering merger termination/renegotiation risk.
    Sep 5, 2014. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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