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  • Blucora: Falling Into Value Territory [View article]
    Honestly, it was a good trade. Exited when it crossed $20 in less than 2 weeks of initiating a position, yielding a fantastic IRR.

    Management effectively repurchased shares from me as part of the new program they launched.
    Aug 8 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BBX Capital Potential Part 2: Overview Of Legacy Assets And Their Potential [View article]
    I was just discussing something similar with someone else, figured I'd add the comment here as well:

    I dont think this is really that relevant. These assets (including the real estate) probably only provide a few marginal cents of value. You can probably expect like a 30% upside on RE assets - but thats not enough to make this thing a double.

    I think the big picture investment thesis revolves around BXG.
    Aug 7 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BFC Financial: A Massively Undervalued Catalyst-Driven Equity [View article]
    Agreed. The cashflows it generates are pretty sweet.

    Keep in mind, its a cyclical business, and they bought it at a much more favorable point in the cycle.
    Aug 6 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Catalysts And Sum Of The Parts Shows Potential For BBX Capital [View article]
    As mentioned in the original article - bluegreen earnings were a blowout. +60% EBITDA vs last year.

    The capital light business model seems to be pulling through and growing for us.
    Aug 5 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BFC Financial: A Massively Undervalued Catalyst-Driven Equity [View article]
    Also, bluegreen is moving along quite nicely. EBITDA is up 60%...
    Aug 5 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BFC Financial: A Massively Undervalued Catalyst-Driven Equity [View article]
    Not much to add here besides what we already know and what you see in the press release. Im happy with the numbers and am even more happy with the new reporting format.

    Its obvious they are improving their disclosures, which is the 2nd biggest catalyst for this name.
    Aug 5 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    For those of you that listened to the call and were confused by the CMS stuff, here are my thoughts.

    Two things have changed here:

    • In July, CMS proposed not to include infusion pumps in the next set of Round 2 bidding (previously, it was only included in R1RC in very few CBAs). For the uninitiated, Round 2 included nationwide. To me, this is a huge win, because I viewed the major risk here as having CMS mandate a nationwide bidding process for infusion pumps & supplies. For various reasons related to pricing, I believed that we were highly likely to see infusion included in nationwide bidding. I think that INFU still benefits greatly from medicare reimbursement, but for whatever reason CMS seems to disagree. Either way, the takeaway here is that less recompete bidding is better, and infusion pumps avoided being included in Round 2 bidding.

    • Later in July, CMS proposed cuts that would impact infusion pumps & supplies beginning in CY15. At a high level, it look like the cuts will result in 13% less medicare revenue for products included in the R1RC category with infusion pumps. Here is the long version of this proposal (http://1.usa.gov/1qUd1vc), with the relevant section starting in the 3rd column of pg40285. Basically, they proposed to apply nationwide cuts to DMEs that were included in less than 10 CBAs following this formula: ((1 – R1RC cut%) x (110%)) – 1). As a reminder the infusion category, the R1RC cut variable was approximately 21%. I think there is also a chance that they make these cuts less painful than proposed, as CMS has a tendency to do, but I’m not sure how to cuff that probability.

    I’m working off of the assumption that medicare accounts for 31% of INFU revenues, which results in an ebitda impact of ~$2.3mm by my estimates ($56mm x 31% x13%). This is very back-of-the-envelope and could very well be wrong. But I think its a good starting point until the company provides additional detail.
    Aug 4 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    I missed this completely. I wonder how that came about.
    Jul 28 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BBX Capital Potential Part 2: Overview Of Legacy Assets And Their Potential [View article]
    Its the waiting!
    Jul 23 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BBX Capital Potential Part 2: Overview Of Legacy Assets And Their Potential [View article]
    BBX Capital Real Estate, a division of BBX Capital Corporation BBX, today announced its upcoming plans for Bonterra, its newly proposed master-planned community located in Hialeah, in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

    It is anticipated that the Bonterra community will be built on an approximate 128 acres of land consisting of a 114 acre parcel owned by BBX Capital having a carrying value of $30.7 million at March 31, 2014, and approximately 14 acres of adjacent land which is currently under contract to acquire. Once completed, the Bonterra community is planned to have approximately 1,171 highly stylized single-family homes, villas, town homes, and apartments, along with amenities including a clubhouse, fitness center, resort pool, parks, and a 15 acre lake.

    "As we have previously indicated, BBX Capital is actively engaged in real estate development and operations involving real estate obtained through foreclosure or purchased from third parties. Our activities include obtaining land entitlements, property renovation, asset management, and pursuit of joint venture opportunities. Our joint ventures may involve the contribution of properties and/or cash investments in joint ventures with third party development partners. In that regard, we are very excited about our announcement today relating to the Bonterra community as we continue to pursue real estate opportunities," commented Seth M. Wise, President of BBX Capital Real Estate.

    The Bonterra community site is currently in the final stages of master-planning and our plans continue to be subject to receipt of governmental approvals. It is anticipated that the community will be divided into three parcels, which include:


    1. The construction of approximately 394 single-family homes by a joint
    venture between BBX Capital Real Estate and Codina-Carr.

    2. Approximately 314 rental apartment units. BBX Capital Real Estate is
    currently seeking required entitlements and plans to partner with a
    third party developer to develop this parcel.

    3. Approximately 463 additional single-family homes, villas and townhomes.

    The Company has a contract to sell this parcel, subject to the receipt of entitlements currently being sought and due diligence by the home builder.

    "With access to Miami, the major highways, inter-county cross roads and public transportation, the planned Bonterra community will have excellent access to employment, major community facilities, schools and universities, recreational facilities, sports venues, shopping, golfing, and fine dining," Seth Wise concluded.
    Jul 23 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BBX Capital Potential Part 2: Overview Of Legacy Assets And Their Potential [View article]
    They didnt sell any of the equity held at BFCF (the parentco).
    Jul 22 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Catalysts And Sum Of The Parts Shows Potential For BBX Capital [View article]
    I would recommend getting a guest membership at VIC. There is a similar article there that should be available on the non-member side.
    Jul 21 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Catalysts And Sum Of The Parts Shows Potential For BBX Capital [View article]
    In response to Dan's concerns:

    I think the dead horse has been thoroughly beaten on all of these issues in the comments to the previous article I wrote, and on other message boards (VIC, DDIC, yahoo). Here are my quick thoughts on the issues you say you are most worried about (1, 3, 5).

    On 1: As with any merger like this, there will always be valuation arguments. There is no single ‘fair price,” which makes the issue contested. People are just trying to extract the maximum value that they can for themselves.

    This has already been voted on and it will go through as structured, in all likelihood. However, those who disagree strongly are entitled to a valuation fight in front a court. In this case, the court will determine the “true” fair value & give the difference to those who held-out (whether it be a negative or positive adjustment). This will not stop the merger from going through, and it will take place after the shares have been tendered. Precedent shows that appraisal rights are an adequate remedy.

    On 3: The distressed assets are already marked at a discount. Ex. If you had a 80% LTV mortgage, and they defaulted, then your balance sheet value of the distressed asset will be at most 80% of the collateral’s value. You are buying these assets at undermarked prices, if you believe that the relevant markets/assets have recovered their value.

    However, when we refer to a clean BS, we simply mean it isn’t an over-levered enterprise.

    On 5: I think the only risk to the merger is resolution of the SEC litigation in a timely manner. I have little doubt that this will be resolved favorably, in time. It may require appellate court, which would be unfortunate from a time-value perspective, but I think the ultimate resolution will be favorable based on precedents that the company has experienced.
    Jul 21 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    I'll be posting a new article in the next couple weeks about INFU(although it will likely follow the same format that this one originally did; and be approximately the same length). This month there were 2 announcements from CMS about reimbursements affecting INFU. I dont think either of them are terribly negative - and one of them is a net positive (which hit the tape this week).

    Will also add some other thoughts.

    I would do it this weekend, but Im moving!

    I increased my position at $2.60 a couple weeks ago as well.
    Jul 18 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BBX Capital Potential Part 2: Overview Of Legacy Assets And Their Potential [View article]
    Thanks. Was just wondering because it wasnt disclosed anywhere in the article.
    Jul 17 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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