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Spencer Knight  

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  • Don't get your rally hats on yet, Mark Hulbert says: Markets still have to work off the extra optimism they built up in October's rally. Only then will the wall of worry be strong enough to climb up; in fact, he figures we may be closer to excessive optimism than excessive pessimism.  [View news story]
    It should not be surprising we see optimism slightly higher during the holidays because spending is at its highest levels and people are generally in a good mood. But not sure I agree we can determine when to buy and sell based upon confidence and pessimisim/optimism...
    Dec 10, 2011. 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo (YHOO) has requested more information and better terms from potential buyers of a minority stake in the company as the board weighs various proposals at hand, Deal Journal reports. Yahoo also reportedly is assessing a possible two-step process in which it would strike a deal for a minority investment, then sell its Asian assets afterward.  [View news story]
    YHOO is a depreciating asset. And allowing "people in the know" to continue to go public with the news will not help their cause. It is only a matter of time...
    Dec 7, 2011. 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon (VZ +1.2%) plans to launch a stand-alone service allowing customers to stream movies and television shows over the Internet, in a new challenge to Netflix (NFLX -1.9%) and traditional cable TV, Reuters reports. VZ is talking with prospective programming partners about the service, which could be launched in 2012.  [View news story]
    "The package of programming would be limited in its scope, said two people with knowledge of the plans."

    This should be concerning considering VZ is always looking for ways to charge customers more. If this plan goes through I would expect a very limited service with compounding charges for overuse; very similar to their cellular device packages.
    Dec 7, 2011. 02:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Geithner will jet off to Europe next week for 3 days of talks with EU officials all over the continent. Included are meetings with the ECB's Draghi and the Bundesbank's (also ECB) Jens Weidmann. The central bank is supposed to be independent from EU politicians, nobody said anything about the U.S. (PR)  [View news story]
    I hope he leaves his/ America's checkbook at home...
    Dec 2, 2011. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion (RIMM) announces it will take a $485M pretax provision in relation to its PlayBook, contributing to updated guidance. The firm says it now expects Q3 revenue will be slightly lower than the previous range of $5.3B-5.6B, and EPS will fall in the low to mid-point of its prior guidance of $1.20-$1.40. In Q4 RIM sees lower shipments impacting its outlook, while it no longer expects to meet its full-year EPS guidance of $5.25-$6.00. Shares halted in premarket trading. [View news story]
    RIMM has more issues than just the PlayBook. Sometimes giants go out of business. It happens. Year over year revenue should be slightly down unless the company's fiscal Q4 is a blowout. I don't expect to see this trend reverse over the next few years.
    Dec 2, 2011. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 should post modest gains next year, says Russell Investments' Stephen Wood. Unfortunately, right now we are engaged in a violent tug-of-war between the stuff we can measure, like positive economic and corporate data in the U.S., and the irrational fear of the unknown, Europe especially, that make forecasting a very difficult task. In the end though, it's the fundamentals, valuations and earnings that really matter, and the markets will stabilize. (video)  [View news story]
    Best statement I've read in a while.
    Dec 1, 2011. 11:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sarkozy: He plans to meet with Angela Merkel in Paris on Monday following which a raft of measures "to guarantee the future of Europe" will be announced. He says no eurozone state will be allowed to default, and no saver will lose a single cent on loans to eurozone countries. Don't laugh, traders are buying euros since that line hit.  [View news story]

    So what's the difference from what everyone is saying? France is promising things that sound unreasonable on the surface and may be impossible to push through without long term consequences.

    Think about it what you said though, how can a French savings account not lose money if the bank goes bankrupt? I don't follow French banks, but do they have an insurance program to protect losses? Somebody will have to pick up those losses and printing money isn't the correct answer. Of course this assumes banks will go bankrupt which is a totally different argument.

    I do like how Sarkozy promises more discipline. I believe every country needs more discipline.
    Dec 1, 2011. 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Microsoft (MSFT) now a value stock? Quite possibly, Eddy Elfenbein explains: The stock currently goes for 9.24x expected FY2012 EPS of $2.75, while the S&P 500 now goes for 11.17x expected S&P earnings of $101.73 over those same four quarters - meaning Microsoft’s valuation is 17% less than the overall market’s.  [View news story]
    Until MSFT produces new products it will be difficult for the share price to move substantially higher. Investors don't want to push a stock higher simply because it currently trades lower than the S&P 500. It's all about the future and MSFT has a steady future ahead. But the likelihood of revenue growth beyond comprehension is unlikely.

    It's even difficult to label MSFT a "buy and hold forever" stock because as we've seen the share price hasn't gone anywhere, but you do collect those dividends so maybe it is.
    Dec 1, 2011. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Big Buys And 2 Big Sells By David Einhorn [View article]
    I like the GM buy. It is speculative at this point but depending on the holding period it may pay off. But then again this isn't the first time GM's stock followed a long drawn out slide.
    Dec 1, 2011. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark Hulbert views Walt Disney's (DIS +0.4%) 50% dividend hike as a vote of confidence in the company’s future and a "very bullish development" for the broader economy: "Disney is in the entertainment business. Its profitability would suffer if the economy were about to go into a sustained downturn... to that extent, management’s vote of confidence extends to the economy as a whole."  [View news story]
    The dividend increase may be to counter future job cuts. If DIS cuts jobs the company will be more profitable, hence money for shareholders.

    But overall it doesn't really matter if the U.S. economy is booming because America will not plunge into another recession unless we are pushed over the cliff by somebody else. America is still recovering (much slower than we would like) but we won't fall into our own recession anytime soon. But sometimes when people fall out of a plane they grab anything they can.
    Dec 1, 2011. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finisar (FNSR -7.5%) is tumbling after posting its FQ2 report. While EPS beat estimates, the company is guiding for FQ3 revenue of $235M-$250M and EPS of $0.20-$0.24, largely below a consensus of $249.9M and $0.26. Other optical component names are falling in sympathy: OCLR -4.5%. OPLK -2%. NPTN -2.3%.  [View news story]
    Fiscal Q2 guidance= Fiscal Q3 guidance. Interesting...
    Dec 1, 2011. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • November ADP Jobs Report: +206K vs. +110K prior and expectations of 130K.  [View news story]
    Which is why we need to disband all unions and get jobs back in America. Businesses will never come back with unions busting their margins left and right. Unions pretend to help consumers but all they do is keep unemployment high.

    Yes I understand unions protect workers and so on, but who pays for the consumers food when they have no job because the businesses move overseas? If our standard of living wasn't so inflated a family of 4 could get by on $20k/year. But instead we all have to have our luxuries.

    Just some food for thought.
    Nov 30, 2011. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P's banking downgrade spree after the close - lowering nearly every sizable U.S. bank by one notch - may have been telegraphed as part of the agency’s application of its revised bank criteria. But that's not stopping prices from slipping AH: BAC -0.4%, MS -0.8%, C -0.4%, JPM -0.1%, WFC -0.1%, GS -0.1%. Oddly, several European banks were left unscathed - is there more to come?  [View news story]
    This is a concrete explanation for the recent weakness in major banks recently. If these ratings are correct, things could get ugly for consumers in the future.
    Nov 29, 2011. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Facebook deserve the $100B IPO valuation it's reportedly shooting for? Bulls will point to soaring revenue, improving ad monetization, and an eye-popping share of consumer Internet usage. But Douglas McIntyre isn't convinced, noting that at $100B, Facebook will be worth more than Cisco (CSCO), which has over $6B in annual profits, and over $30B in net cash and investments.  [View news story]
    I believe AAPL was worth $100B in the middle of 2007 somewhere. Is Facebook really as big as AAPL in 2007? In terms of popularity yes of course. But to go further than that is all speculation. There's only so much you can do with ads on a website. The same can be said about AAPL products, but as we see y/y AAPL keeps adding one little thing here or there as the newest chips, screens, etc are created.

    I hope Facebook never goes public because we don't need toys being publicly traded. If I want to play with toys I'll turn on the PS3 all day.
    Nov 29, 2011. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The bloodletting in Groupon (GRPN -10.1%) and LinkedIn (LNKD -9.3%), occurring in the absence of major news, and on a day when most high-beta names are surging, has accelerated in the final hour of trading. Groupon has been a favorite of short-sellers all month, and many expected LinkedIn to see ongoing selling pressure following the recent end of its IPO lockup.  [View news story]
    Let's not forget ANGI. Another website company (called a Tech company) that should never have gone public...
    Nov 28, 2011. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment