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Spencer Knight  

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  • February Nonfarm Payrolls: +236K vs. consensus +160K, 119K previous (revised from +157K). Unemployment rate 7.7% vs. consensus 7.9%, 7.9% previous. [View news story]
    Those are both overly ambitious numbers (1.2m house starts and 6% UE in about 20 months) but you have the right idea. The economy is improving as a whole. But don't forget there will always be market corrections during expansionary periods...
    Mar 9, 2013. 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California gets its first upgrade from S&P since 2006, the agency hiking the rating on the state's general-obligation bonds to A from A-. "The economic expansion is gaining positive momentum," and the approval of higher sales and income tax rates "positions the state to capitalize on burgeoning economic activity." S&P should ask Phil Mickelson about that one. [View news story]
    The better answer is still Phil's living location does not create jobs. He can live in Mexico and Callaway will still sell his drivers. How many drivers say "used by Phil Mickelson only when he is living in CA."
    Jan 31, 2013. 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite beating profit expectations on the back of strong results in North America, Ford (F) could see some share price weakness after warning once again on sales in Europe, notes Douglas Kass. In early trading he's looking to be correct, Ford -1.7% premarket. [View news story]
    Ford has been forecasting weak Euro sales for a year now, coupled with strong NA sales. It is a good stock to buy. Europe will eventually strengthen. The difficult part is when will Europe turnaround and will NA still be growing at that time.
    Jan 29, 2013. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung (SSNLF.PK) Q4 net profit +76% to 7.04T won ($6.6B) vs consensus of 6.8T won. Revenue +18.5% to 56.1T won. Figures largely in line with guidance earlier this month. Revenues mostly driven by "solid sales" of flagship Galaxy S3 and Galaxy Note 2 smartphones. Profit at its mobile devices division more than doubles to 5.44T won, accounting for 62% of overall earnings. Expects the global smartphone market to shrink in Q1 from Q4. (PR[View news story]
    Apple's fast smartphone growth is done. Samsung's turn. Then somebody else. Maybe Microsoft will eventually make a phone people want?
    Jan 25, 2013. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -5K to 330K vs. 360K consensus, 335K prior (revised). Continuing claims -71K to 3.15M. [View news story]
    The market moves based on future expectations. Not what happened last week or last month or last year. If people are expecting the economy to improve in a year or two, then you buy now before prices get pushed up too high.
    Jan 24, 2013. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Siemens Networks reportedly plans to issue €700M worth of high-yield bonds in the Spring to test investor interest in the company and assess the potential of a possible IPO. However, Nokia (NOK) and Siemens (S) have no plans to exit the telecom-equipment company, which has enjoyed a turnaround with three straight quarters of underlying profitability. [View news story]
    The article answers the question of what they need the money for. NSN will "pay down existing bank debt and fund future investment." Seems like a good plan. Have to see how it unfolds. Perhaps a cleaner balance sheet and future growth prospects via expansion will open NSN up for a buyout.
    Jan 21, 2013. 04:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capital One (COF): Q4 EPS of $1.41 misses by $0.16. Revenue of $5.6B (-3% Y/Y) misses by $0.28B. Shares -3.2% AH. (PR[View news story]
    That is a fantastic idea. I will begin doing that as well.
    Jan 17, 2013. 08:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs Is A Phenomenal Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Yes lets all buy GS right before the seasonal market correction coming in a few months. Perhaps earlier if political nonsense gets in the way.
    Jan 17, 2013. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream And Stifel: Why They Got It Wrong [View article]
    I see both sides of SODA's story. All the expansion is great, BUT it is yet to be seen if that expansion will produce. Sort of like the example of paying $2 to earn $1 is not good business. Obviously it's not as simple as that but you get my point. I personally label SODA as more of speculative stock at this point. If the expansion produces tremendous margins then this stock will fly so high. But if it does not, then, well... You get the picture. I personally like to see companies like this making an effort to expand, but SODA's market is filled with stiff competition and only time will tell. I will be watching SODA's margins very closely... In any case, keep up the good work.
    Jan 17, 2013. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Breakout In Process, Thanks To Germany [View article]
    As an infinite GLD and SLV bear (at least until SLV dives to 20 and GLD 1200), I found myself doubting my own beliefs regarding GLD for a few nano seconds. Well done.
    Jan 17, 2013. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on jobless claims: At 335K, it's the lowest read since January 2008. The 4-week moving average declines 6.75K to 359.2K. A Marketwatch report say seasonal quirks could be behind the big decline, without giving any detail. The news combines with the big housing starts print to send S&P futures +0.6%, 10-year Treasury yields to 1.87%, gold -0.6%, and the dollar higher across the board. [View news story]
    Even if you don't agree with the number today, look at the longer term trend. It doesn't matter which way you slice the pie, initial jobless claims are not increasing over a period of time. Perhaps w/w on occasion but not m/m and its not even close y/y.

    And if the trend continues, as it will, then we will get an improving economy. More people will have money to spend from slow test-the-water hirings, more products will be purchased, and businesses will hire even faster to capitalize on the demand. And that basic cycle will continue until the next inevitable recession. The business cycle runs the world, not the Fed or the President of the United States. It doesn't matter what they do.
    Jan 17, 2013. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California is in dire fiscal straits, but tapping its Saudi Arabia-scale oil resources could wipe out the state's debt and deficits, Mark Mills writes. The Monterey shale field alone may hold 15.4B barrels of oil, rivaling America's total conventional reserves, and the overall economic benefits of opening up Monterey could reach $1T. [View news story]
    Drilling for that oil is inevitable. Might as well start now. They will find a way to preserve tourist hot spots. But I am not sure fracking is as advanced as the writer makes it seem at its current stage... I guess that is where the idea of Silicon Valley getting back to its roots to develop something amazing comes in.
    Jan 16, 2013. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    I am interested in seeing a Vascepa launch. I think that Amarin will do a very good job. They may not have any experience in marketing, but management is taking their sweet time and I think this is a good sign. At least it is better than rushing the product to market without a business/marketing plan.

    I have seen small companies go at it alone in the past and the stock prices soar after the results are released. On the flip side, I have seen complete flops. I think Amarin will follow the pattern of the former.
    Dec 7, 2012. 02:44 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maxim Group Highlights 3 Stem Cell Stocks To Consider And 1 To Avoid [View article]
    As far as I can tell, Ben Yoffe doesn't give an opinion on any of these stocks. That Kolbert fella is the one that produced the negativity.
    Dec 4, 2012. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will GlaxoSmithKline Purchase Amarin? [View article]
    The best point is the Lovaza patent expiration in September. Vascepa could easily fill that hole and then some. At this point I don't see a buyout over $20 a share anytime soon.

    And since some tin foil hat wearing nut case likes people to disclose their AMRN holdings, I'm holding a small stake with a cost basis of 10.51. So I don't need to say things that pump the stock up. I'm just being greedy with the rest.
    Aug 2, 2012. 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment