Seeking Alpha

Spencer Knight

View as an RSS Feed
View Insurance Bull's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Vivus (VVUS) says it's been informed of a three month PDUFA extension by the FDA of for the review of its Qnexa New Drug Application from April 17 to July 17. The FDA is extending the date to provide time for a full review of the submission. Shares -7% AH.  [View news story]
    I think the ED market is extremely large and avanafil can be a big money maker for VVUS. It will need a top notch marketing team like Viagra has to penetrate the market though (no pun intended). Perhaps the Qnexa delay will give VVUS time to find a buyer that can properly market these two treatments. Time will tell.
    Apr 10 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 359K vs. 350K consensus (prior week revised to 364K from 348K). Continuing claims -41K to 3.34M.  [View news story]
    22M out of work forever seems a bit generalized considering we don't know if they will be out of work forever. And of that many people how many retired, went back to school, found under the table (nontaxed) jobs, etc. I haven't seen an uptick in the homeless so I find it difficult to believe that many people have no job and will never get a job. Since you can't live without a job. No food, no house, no life. The large revision upwards is very concerning to me because it makes the data look arbitrary.
    Mar 29 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark Zuckerberg left it to the adults to run a pre-IPO analysts meeting for Facebook (FB) yesterday, reportedly deciding not to show his face at all. That's prompted speculation about the role Zuckerberg will play in the whole rigamarole, with CFO David Ebersman telling the analysts that the CEO prefers to focus on developing Facebook's services.
     [View news story]
    "Executives at the event said he [Zuckerberg] would be focused more on developing Facebook’s service..."

    Then why go public if you are not ready...
    Mar 20 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Market Know About Apple's Announcement? [View article]
    Not to mention coincidences happen. It just happens to be that after a long bull market something happens that causes stocks to depreciate substantially. That doesn't mean anybody had a tip off, it just happens. But of course, some folks think that others were tipped off ahead of time just because they were late to the sellfest. It could easily have been a coincidence that AAPL's stock reached 600 (and couldn't hold that level by the way) prior to the dividend announcement. It closed above 600 today and we will see how the stock reacts the rest of the week. Remember 600 is a nice even number for traders to sell at.
    But at the same time, we hear about insider trading busts all the time. So we know they happen and they are likely happening more than we know...
    Mar 19 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) announces a quarterly dividend of $2.65/share to begin in FQ4 of this year (July 2012) as well as a buyback program of up to $10B. (PR)  [View news story]
    Interesting, AAPL's buyback is the same percentage of outstanding shares (based on the 932M at the end of 2011) as the dividend is percentage of share price. I didn't think AAPL needed a buyback, but it can't hurt to keep dilution in check. I wonder if a buyback will lead to a split in the future. It may seem counter intuitive but anything is on the table now.
    Mar 19 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cash Announcement Coming Monday - Why I'm Hoping It Disappoints [View article]
    "But actually, I'm hoping that whatever Apple does disappoints investors, for now. Why? Because I would love to see shares drop to $550 or so Monday."

    My thoughts exactly. I'd love to pick it up lower than 550 but with the current bull cycle that may not happen.
    Mar 19 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed should continue to try to help fuel a more robust expansion, even with the easing it has already done and despite recent encouraging data, Chicago Fed's Charles Evans says. Countering Jeff Lacker's earlier remarks, Evans says the greater risk is that Fed officials "buy too quickly into thinking" Fed policy can't do more to lower the unemployment rate further.  [View news story]
    Yes a lower unemployment rate is great, but if we get there with unnatural policies it will just drive inflation higher as the money supply increases. Then if wages do not respond equally (which is very likely) all we get is plenty working people that can't purchase anything. It's a tough balance to keep in check... Glad I'm not a policy maker.
    Mar 16 05:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AllianceBernstein's Top Buys: 3 Potential Longs, 2 To Avoid [View article]
    "Morgan Stanley's stock has risen by 60% since November."

    I don't mean to be a stickler, but that's a bit overblown. Since November MS's share price has risen 50% from it's lowest point; which isn't the lowest closing price. Now, MS's stock has risen almost 70% since the 52 week low point (October 4), but the stock closed at 14.01 that day so whether the 11.58 low can be used as an indicator is arbitrary.
    Mar 16 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) scores a coup of sorts as it will open stores at 12:01 AM - 8 hours before Apple (AAPL) opens its own outlets - to begin selling the new iPad. The arrangement also allows Wal-Mart to get the jump on rivals Target and Best Buy.  [View news story]
    The question is how many iPads does WMT have to sell...
    Mar 15 11:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chris Whitmore, take your perp walk. Apple's (AAPL -0.7%) failure to hold $600 is blamed on the Deutsche Bank analyst who proclaimed around midday that AAPL's parabolic rise had gone too far. Whitmore made clear his firm was just taking profits after rising 50% since October. Many Streeters share the skepticism, but they've been burned too often in the past to say so.  [View news story]
    I'm 100% sure AAPL's dip was not because of one analyst. Humans think alike. A nice even level of $600 is a perfect sell point. That's all it was. Now we get to see just how bullish AAPL investors are. Will they send it above 600 quickly or will 600 become a tough ceiling that will take a strong earnings report to break through. This is the fun question.
    Mar 15 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: Look Elsewhere For Exposure To Financials [View article]
    MS was unable to hold 19 twice now. The RSI is indicating MS can go higher, but if it can't push past 19 now that the 50/200SMA crossed then it's dead in the water. The 10/20SMAs may cross again in about a week if MS can move to the 18.80-18.85 range and hold steady.

    I like how MS's management is focusing on securing the business (invest in Smith Barney) as opposed to hacking out higher dividends to artificially inflate the share price. But how profitable is Smith Barney? That's the question to ponder. In a bull market Smith Barney is very profitable; in a bear market Smith Barney, not so much. Time will tell us the answer.
    Mar 15 03:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Retail Sales: +1.1% vs. +1.2% expected, +0.6% (revised) prior. Ex-auto +0.9% vs. +0.7% expected, +1.1% (revised) prior.  [View news story]
    Of course that report can be countered with these...

    Let's just all agree the economy is stuck between a recession and the growth we want to see. In other words, America will not fall into a recession, but any growth will be extremely slow to a point where any changes are negligible in the short term.

    If we all agree on that, then the world will be a peaceful place.
    Mar 13 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed unveils its doomsday scenario for the upcoming bank stress tests: how the 19 biggest U.S. banks would survive a world with 13% unemployment, a 50% drop in stocks, and a 21% tumble in housing prices. The Fed plans to release full results Thursday at 4:30 p.m. ET. (earlier: I, II)  [View news story]
    If housing prices fell another 21% from today's levels then homeowners would be in a worse economic situation than any test can imagine.
    Mar 12 06:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Stress Test Results Imminent: Time To Buy Or Bail? [View article]
    I'm holding a small long position in one of the five banks listed above. I'm concerned with the results of the stress tests. We saw lobbyists for a few of these banks trying to get the results to be kept secret or tamed down as to not scare the financial markets (perhaps somebody else can find a link). I'm not so sure we will get absolute positive results.

    BAC and MS are well underpriced right now if they pass the stress tests. MS hasn't rallied as well in 2012. BAC on the other hand has rallied incredibly well. But both stocks took a beating last year and both have the potential to double their share price in a strong financial rally (positive stress test results). Not in one day of course.

    Nobody should be expecting all of these major institutions to pass and rally hard. It's definitely possible but the risk is far from off. I'll be holding my position through the week despite my concerns. I suppose if I was managing somebody elses money I would take the position off the table until after the report is published. But since its a small position with my own money then I'm willing to take the risk.
    Mar 9 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls: +227K vs. consensus of +215K, +284K (revised from 243K) in Jan. Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.3% expected. Average workweek unchanged at 34.5 hours, inline. Average hourly earnings +0.1%.  [View news story]
    This election will be like 2004. The incumbent is far from the best choice, but the other options are all worse.
    Mar 9 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment