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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Has Orexigen Delivered A Death Knell To Vivus?
    Yesterday, 10:37 AM VVUS 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen's Contrave has already passed Qsymia in new scrips and is on the cusp of passing Qsymia in total scripts.
    • Orexigen received approval in Europe where Qsymia failed.
    • Vivus has not responded to market moves thus far from Orexigen.
  • Arena Investors Need To Pay Attention To Competition
    Yesterday, 7:59 AM ARNA 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Competitor Orexigen just got approval in Europe.
    • Orexigen has been aggressive in the marketplace.
    • Arena has pipeline potential but needs to be able to advance it with sales revenues from Belviq.
  • Orexigen - Honeymoon Continues With European Approval Of Anti-Obesity Drug
    Yesterday, 7:42 AM OREX 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen receives EU approval of Mysimba.
    • Approval in Europe means Orexigen is first to market.
    • Addressable market nearly doubles with approval in Europe.
  • Vivus, Arena, Or Orexigen - Which Will Win The Anti-Obesity Market Share Race?
    Mon, Mar. 23 NVO, OREX, VVUS 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The three companies have anti-obesity products already launched.
    • Getting the most sales does not mean getting the most revenue.
    • Dynamics in how weight loss pills are accepted play a big role.
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Slip, Company Needs To Shift Into Gear
    Mon, Mar. 23 VVUS 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales remain above 11,000, but slip 1.36%.
    • Contrave about to pass Qsymia in total scripts just 22 weeks into launch.
    • Vivus needs a shift soon.
  • Orexigen - Contrave Scripts Up, Equity Down, Approval In Europe Still Not Announced
    Sat, Mar. 21 OREX 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave scripts up 7.5%.
    • Contrave is garnering the bulk of new scripts.
    • Contrave on the verge of passing Qsymia just 22 weeks after launch.
  • Arena: Belviq Scripts See Modest Rise, Revenue Story Not Promising
    Fri, Mar. 20 ARNA 99 Comments

    Summary

    • Revenues will likely fall below analyst expectations.
    • Competition in sector is impacting Belviq.
    • Marketing partner is running fewer ads than were traditionally aired.
  • Enteromedics: What Will 2015 Look Like?
    Tue, Mar. 17 ETRM 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Anti-obesity device approved in January of 2015.
    • Some investors feel adoption of device will be swift.
    • Device does not make diet exercise or even pills obsolete.
  • Orexigen - Contrave Scripts Rise Over 6%, But The Focus Is On Europe
    Sun, Mar. 15 OREX 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen's Contrave sales rise over 6% this week.
    • The launch is still progressing well.
    • In near term, scripts are less important to equity than approval in Europe.
  • Vivus - Qsymia Scripts Pass 11,000 For First Time In 2015
    Fri, Mar. 13 VVUS 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Scripts have moved up above 11,000.
    • Scripts have been range-bound between 10,000 and 11,500 for over a year.
    • Qsymia put up its best weekly fight since Contrave launch 21 weeks ago.
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Remain More Modest Than Needed, But A Silver Lining Is Showing
    Fri, Mar. 13 ARNA 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales well below what is needed.
    • Investors should look at anticipated revenue closely.
    • Silver lining in refills starting to show.
  • Orexigen - Stage Is Set For European Approval Decision On Anti-Obesity Drug
    Fri, Mar. 13 OREX 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen's Contrave already approved in U.S.
    • If approved in Europe, Contrave will be marketed as Mysimba.
    • If Mysimba gains approval, it will be the first anti-obesity pill approved in many years in Europe.
    • Orexigen maintains all rights in Europe.
  • Bad News For Pfizer's Chantix May Be Good News For Arena's Belviq
    Thu, Mar. 12 ARNA 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Chantix has had a lot of press about bad side effects and warnings.
    • Belviq shows potential as a smoking cessation drug.
    • A second Belviq smoking cessation trial is scheduled to start later this year.
    • The smoking cessation market may be an easier market to tap into than the anti-obesity market.
  • Vivus: Teva Wants To Make Generic Qsymia - Can This Be Good?
    Wed, Mar. 11 VVUS 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Teva files application with the FDA to make generics of all doses of Qsymia.
    • Vivus is already in a lawsuit with Actavis for a similar situation.
    • The entry of Teva could help Vivus in a way some investors may not realize.
  • Orexigen - Contrave Sales Continue Up
    Wed, Mar. 11 OREX 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave is on the cusp of surpassing competitor Qsymia just 20 weeks after launch.
    • Contrave continues to grab more new scripts than Belviq or Qsymia.
    • Contrave's launch is most impressive yet, but still needs to maintain growth.
  • Arena Scripts Still Slower Than Needed - Are Downgrades In The Future?
    Wed, Mar. 11 ARNA 71 Comments

    Summary

    • Scripts saw less growth than needed.
    • Both competitors saw more new scripts last week.
    • Weight loss season is eight weeks old and numbers are not adding up.
  • Novo Nordisk Readies For Saxenda Launch - Investors Need To Keep Expectations Realistic
    Tue, Mar. 10 NVO 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales reps rumors swirling that an announcement will happen this week.
    • New study data shows Saxenda benefits.
    • Saxenda will join Qsymia, Belviq, and Contrave in the anti-obesity space.
  • Arena - Belviq Ads Slow Substantially - Eisai Promises Seem To Be Fading
    Tue, Mar. 10 ARNA 24 Comments

    Summary

    • Eisai spoke about increased ads while we see decreases.
    • Is Eisai trying to trim costs?
    • Is a new ad in the works, and what type of revenue can Arena expect?
  • Orexigen: Obesity Pill Heart Benefit Controversy - Good For The Stock?
    Mon, Mar. 9 OREX 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen's anti-obesity pill seeks to show a heart benefit in a study.
    • The stock rose and then fell on the fallout of whether the study information should have been released.
    • Orexigen still awaits approval or rejection in Europe.
  • Vivus' Suit Against Actavis Gets Some Dates - Is Trouble Ahead?
    Sat, Mar. 7 VVUS, ACT 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Vivus markets the anti-obesity drug Qsymia.
    • Actavis is seeking to make a generic version.
    • If trial happens it will not start until late 2016.
  • Orexigen Soars: Good News Is Heart Data, Bad News Is Data May Be Compromised
    Wed, Mar. 4 OREX 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen discloses positive heart data regarding Contrave.
    • Disclosure of data may compromise clinical trial.
    • A decision in Europe is still hanging in the balance.
  • Arena Misses On Earnings: Investors Need To Look Deeper
    Tue, Mar. 3 ARNA 22 Comments

    Summary

    • EPS was a loss of 15 cents in Q4 vs an expected 12 cent loss.
    • EPS was a loss of 28 cents on the year.
    • Revenue guidance leaves a lot to be desired.
  • Vivus - Flat Qsymia Scripts Point To Needed Shift
    Mon, Mar. 2 VVUS 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Qsymia sales have been been flat for well over a year.
    • Qsymia sales have still not recovered from pre-Thanksgiving levels.
    • Contrave entering the market has shifted dynamics.
  • Orexigen: Contrave Scripts Dip With Sector
    Mon, Mar. 2 OREX 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave scripts dropped 1.85% in the most recent week.
    • Contrave is gaining in market share on Qsymia in a heated battle with Belviq.
    • Orexigen quarterly report indicates $1.3 million in revenue in first 10 weeks.
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Dip - Better Sales, Not Excuses Are Needed
    Mon, Mar. 2 ARNA 53 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales dip by 1.4%.
    • Belviq is holding the line on market share.
    • Weekly growth of over 1,000 scripts is needed.
  • Arena: Belviq Television Ads Resume After 1 Week Hiatus
    Tue, Feb. 24 ARNA 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Eisai identified low price and television ads as new strategy.
    • Televion ad numbers have declined throughout 2015.
    • Between February 16th and February 23rd there were no ads run.
  • Orexigen: Contrave Scripts Pass 9,000 - Closing In On Qsymia
    Mon, Feb. 23 OREX Comment!

    Summary

    • Contrave is now 18 weeks into launch and poised to catch Qsymia already.
    • Contrave new scripts tracking well, while refills could use improvement.
    • U.S sales tracking okay, but decision in Europe is the big catalyst for equity.
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Show Modest Gain - Time To Assess 2015 Expectations?
    Mon, Feb. 23 ARNA 45 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales are up 2.54% week over week, less than what is needed.
    • Sales are not growing fast enough to offset a lower price point.
    • Investors may want to model expectations sooner rather than later.
  • Orexigen's Contrave Sales Recover - Investors Should Look To Europe
    Wed, Feb. 18 OREX 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales move up by 10% week over week.
    • Contrave continues to gain market share.
    • Investors will want to monitor Vivus news.
  • Arena's Belviq Scripts Spike - Maintaining This Trajectory Important
    Wed, Feb. 18 ARNA 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Script sales spike to highest levels.
    • Sales trajectory on track for the first time in 2015.
    • Investors should be happy with the spike, but aware that sales are still behind pace.
  • European Decision On Orexigen Gets Delayed Until March, But Approval Is Likely
    Mon, Feb. 9 OREX 10 Comments

    Summary

    • CHMP vote to approve was 31 in favor and 2 opposed.
    • European Commission will render final decision in March.
    • It was previously thought decision would come in February.
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip - Is A Lower Price Needed?
    Sun, Feb. 8 VVUS 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Qsymia sales dip 3.5%.
    • Qsymia now higher priced than Contrave or Belviq.
    • Qsymia sales have been very flat for 15 months.