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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Novo Nordisk Enters Anti-Obesity Space With New FDA Approval
    Wed, Dec. 24 NVO Comment!

    Summary

    • Treatment is a once daily injection and will be marketed as Saxenda.
    • Saxenda is Liraglutide and is the ingredient in already approved Victoza.
    • Victoza, a diabetes treatment, touted weight loss as a side effect.
  • Orexigen - Contrave Script Numbers Remain Impressive
    Mon, Dec. 22 OREX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave Scripts have eclipsed 6,000.
    • Contrave seems poised for big weight loss season numbers.
    • Contrave launch has been the best of the bunch.
  • Belviq Scripts Dip - Lack Of T.V. Ads Will Impact Next Numbers
    Mon, Dec. 22 ARNA 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Scrips lower by 7.6%.
    • No television ads between 12/15 and 12/21 will impact next numbers.
    • 2015 weight loss season more critical.
  • Orexigen Retreats After Positive News In Europe: 3 Things To Watch For
    Mon, Dec. 22 OREX 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Positive CHMP opinion means Orexigen could have the European market to itself.
    • The European Commission must now sign off before drug can be marketed in Europe.
    • Orexigen retains all rights in Europe, but partnership is a possibility.
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Grasp Implications Of Orexigen
    Fri, Dec. 19 OREX 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen will have a bigger market to tap into after positive recommendation by CHMP.
    • Orexigen just gained a lot of leverage in the marketplace as well as with Wall Street.
    • 2015 weight loss season is now more critical than ever.
  • Contrave Wins Approval Recommendation In Europe
    Fri, Dec. 19 OREX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave will be marketed as Mysimba in Europe.
    • Regulators have recommended approval.
    • The European Commission will likely adopt the recommendation in early 2015.
  • Vivus Tries To Lead Obesity Space With Insurance Coverage
    Tue, Dec. 16 VVUS 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Qsymia has seen a flatter sales trajectory.
    • Vivus deploys the fewest sales reps but enjoys the best insurance coverage.
    • Competition in price from Orexigen could be important to watch.
  • Contrave Sales Continue To Impress
    Fri, Dec. 12 OREX 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave has eclipsed the 5,000 script mark.
    • Launch trajectory is most impressive yet.
    • It is still to early to assess refill data.
  • Arena: Belviq Sales See Pleasant Rebound
    Fri, Dec. 12 ARNA 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales see a near full recovery from Thanksgiving week.
    • Sales trajectory on track to meet guidance.
    • Recall impact should be limited to two weeks of the data and at this stage seems minimal.
  • Assessing The Beginnings Of The Orexigen Launch Of Contrave
    Wed, Dec. 10 OREX 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The launch had a hiccup in the beginning.
    • Trajectory ahead of Arena's Belviq.
    • Investors waiting for January and weight loss season.
  • Arena's Belviq - Regulatory Update And A Recall
    Mon, Dec. 8 ARNA 78 Comments

    Summary

    • Some Belviq bottles recalled for label issues.
    • Application for Belviq in Canada withdrawn.
    • Application for Belviq in Israel submitted.
  • Will Diabetes Drugs Enter The Anti-Obesity Space?
    Sun, Dec. 7 AZN, NVO, OREX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Yet another diabetes medicine touts weight loss side effect in advertising.
    • Crossover between diabetes meds and obesity meds will continue.
    • Diabetes sector already mature.
  • Belviq Sales About What Was Expected For Thanksgiving Week
    Sun, Dec. 7 ARNA 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales on pace to meet guidance.
    • Peak 2014 sales appear to have been the week of October 3rd.
    • Watch sector closely as new year roles out.
  • Belviq Approaches 10,000 Ads Aired
    Mon, Dec. 1 ARNA 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq advertising has been ongoing for 33 weeks.
    • Advertising peaked in September.
    • Is it time for a new ad to launch?
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat, Next Week Will Have A Dip
    Mon, Dec. 1 ARNA 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales have been flat for 12 weeks now.
    • Next week's numbers will be lower because of Thanksgiving.
    • Script sales will be just below 500,000 for the year.
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air
    Mon, Nov. 24 ARNA 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq looks like it is effective for smoking cessation.
    • Belviq as a smoking cessation drug could open up new markets.
    • Look for a second trial to be announced in 2015.
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals: Belviq Sales Take A Modest Dip With Holiday
    Sat, Nov. 22 ARNA 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Veterans Day could have had a small impact.
    • More holidays ahead will likely bring another dip.
    • Sales over last 9 weeks have been essentially flat.
  • Janssen Is Working Its Way Toward Anti-Obesity
    Mon, Nov. 17 NVO, OREX, VVUS Comment!

    Summary

    • Existing approved drug has side effect of weight loss.
    • Janssen joins others that see adding weight loss indication may be worth while.
    • Obesity classified as a disease, but doctors still not prescribing as much as anticipated.
  • EnteroMedics May Enter The Obesity Space - What Does It Mean?
    Mon, Nov. 17 ETRM 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Pacemaker type device could be a fit between pills and major surgery.
    • In the anti-obesity space more exposure is good.
    • EnteroMedics is a speculative play as the company seeks FDA approval.
  • Belviq Weekly Sales Come In Flat
    Fri, Nov. 14 ARNA 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales are slightly below peak week at the beginning of the quarter.
    • Sales are on pace to meet expectations.
    • Next week's number will include Veteran's Day.
  • Belviq For Smoking Cessation - Sizzle Or Smolder?
    Fri, Nov. 14 ARNA 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq announced results from a clinical trial for Belviq in smoking cessation.
    • Comparisons to Chantix are not easy.
    • The smoking cessation market is worth hundreds of millions.
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Watch Orexigen
    Mon, Nov. 10 ARNA 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave from Orexigen is the pricing leader.
    • Contrave's discount program seems to have a lot of traction.
    • Equity appreciation is tied to revenues.
  • Orexigen Beats The Street On Milestone Payments
    Mon, Nov. 10 OREX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Company shows a 9 cent per share profit on $30 million in milestones.
    • Company expecting another $70 million in milestones in Q4.
    • Company anticipates European decision in December.
  • Belviq Sales Dip Slightly - Quarter Is Flat Thus Far
    Fri, Nov. 7 ARNA 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Q4 script sales are flat at the five week point.
    • Gross sales still pace to $100 million - Arena's share is about $17 million.
    • Weeks ahead will show if competitor Contrave is going to make waves.
  • Vivus Beats The Street On Milestone Payment For ED Drug
    Thu, Nov. 6 VVUS 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Qsymia sales account for $12.5 million in revenue.
    • Stendra accounts for $21.5 million.
    • 140,000 bottles of Qsymia sold in the quarter.
  • Will Belviq Advertising Pick Up Again?
    Thu, Nov. 6 ARNA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Advertising peaked during the first week in October.
    • Political ads could have been reason for decline in ads over last 4 weeks.
    • Advertising now builds awareness for weight loss season.
  • Orexigen's Contrave Has Modest Start
    Mon, Nov. 3 OREX 16 Comments

    Summary

    • First full week of scripts were just under 400.
    • Contrave needs impressive launch to impress the street.
    • Marketing partner Takeda has dedicated 900 reps to launch.
  • Arena Beats The Street On Taigen Stock Sale
    Mon, Nov. 3 ARNA 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Quarter beats on stock sale - meets expectations otherwise.
    • Arena released top-line results of smoking study.
    • Revenue is tracking in line with overall 2014 expectations.
  • Belviq Sales Recover From Holiday - Sales Flat In Q4 Thus Far
    Fri, Oct. 31 ARNA 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales recovered from the holiday.
    • Watch the sales as a new competitor in Contrave enters the space.
    • Obesity Week and quarterly earnings are on tap.
  • Eisai Earnings Give Arena Investors Insights
    Fri, Oct. 31 ARNA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Eisai reports net belviq Revenue of $16.8 million.
    • My revenue estimates were spot on with what was reported.
    • Arena's Taigen investment is wild card.
    • Arena reports earnings next week.
    • Between 35% and 40% of weekly scripts are free trials.
  • Arena Offers Tease On Belviq And Phentermine
    Wed, Oct. 29 ARNA 20 Comments

    Summary

    • A safety study looked at Belviq in combination with phentermine.
    • The two drugs can work in synergy to bring about more weight loss.
    • Further studies will be needed to change the label.
  • Belviq Sales Dip During Holiday Week, Should Show Steady Progress From Here
    Mon, Oct. 27 ARNA 45 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales drop 2.7% week over week.
    • A new competitor is entering the space.
    • The next 6 weeks are critical.