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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Novo Nordisk Receives Positive Opinion In Europe On Obesity Treatment
    Fri, Jan. 23 NVO Comment!

    Summary

    • Saxenda already has FDA approval.
    • Saxenda joins Orexigen's Contrave as yet another possible new treatment in Europe.
    • Novo Nordisk has not launched Saxenda in the U.S. yet.
  • Arena's Sales Pace For Belviq - What Is Needed
    Wed, Jan. 21 ARNA 24 Comments

    Summary

    • First full week of sales sets the stage.
    • Lower price means more volume needed.
    • Watch the first 8 weeks of the year closely because the street is doing just that.
  • Orexigen Scripts Continue Impressive Track
    Wed, Jan. 21 OREX 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave sales were up 41.24%.
    • Investors should start to watch refills.
    • Competitors' new pricing could impact trajectory.
  • Arena Announces Dilution - What Does It Mean?
    Wed, Jan. 21 ARNA 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Company announces intent to offer shares.
    • Dilution was a likely 2015 event by most estimates.
    • Size of dilution is 21 million shares.
  • Enteromedics Garners FDA Approval For Obesity Device: What's Next
    Fri, Jan. 16 ETRM 53 Comments

    Summary

    • Maestro device is pacemaker type device for obesity.
    • FDA approved device for people with BMI of 35 or more with co-morbid condition.
    • Device slated to cost about $15,000.
  • Vivus Gets New 10% Stakeholder: What To Watch For
    Mon, Jan. 12 VVUS 86 Comments

    Summary

    • North Tide becomes new 10% stakeholder in Vivus.
    • Multiple purchases show that North Tide Adding Shares.
    • Investors will want to watch closely.
  • A Deeper Look At Arena's Belviq Pricing
    Mon, Jan. 12 ARNA 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Lower price will drive new consumers and retain existing ones.
    • More volume needed to get similar revenue.
    • Build models and set expectations now, as it is to your advantage.
  • Orexigen's Contrave May Have Pricing Competition
    Mon, Jan. 12 OREX 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen's Contrave entered market in October as pricing leader.
    • Contrave sales have had the most impressive launch trajectory.
    • New pricing for Arena's Belviq may apply pressure.
  • Sales Of Arena's Belviq Close Out 2014 - What Will 2015 Bring?
    Fri, Jan. 9 ARNA 14 Comments

    Summary

    • The company should meet its guidance.
    • New price structure for Belviq gives investors a lot to consider.
    • First full week of 2015 script sales due out next week.
  • Arena Investors Should Watch New Pricing Of Belviq Closely
    Fri, Jan. 9 ARNA 37 Comments

    Summary

    • New Drug Price can spur sales, but revenue needs to be monitored.
    • FDA adverse events were released with no real red herrings.
    • Pipeline news is good, but company valuation is reliant upon Belviq sales in near term.
  • Arena Spikes On Pipeline News
    Wed, Jan. 7 ARNA 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Clinical Trial news highlights that Area is more than just Belviq.
    • Stock sees spike of over 30%.
    • Pipeline news should help stock create a new foundation.
  • Anticipated FDA Approval Eludes Enteromedics
    Mon, Jan. 5 ETRM 47 Comments

    Summary

    • Company was expecting FDA decision in 2014.
    • Investors' patience is being tested.
    • Enteromedics remains highly speculative.
  • Can High Priced Novo Nordisk Anti-Obesity Injection Make It?
    Dec. 29, 2014 NVO 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Analysts expect Saxenda injection to cost $25 per day.
    • Results seem to be in line with less expensive pills.
    • Saxenda to launch in 2015, website already launched.
  • Arena - Belviq Advertsing Closes Out Year With Big Push
    Dec. 29, 2014 ARNA 88 Comments

    Summary

    • Advertising this past week is at a record high.
    • Adverting the week before was a record low.
    • Belviq is the only "new" weight loss drug advertised on television.
  • Novo Nordisk Enters Anti-Obesity Space With New FDA Approval
    Dec. 24, 2014 NVO Comment!

    Summary

    • Treatment is a once daily injection and will be marketed as Saxenda.
    • Saxenda is Liraglutide and is the ingredient in already approved Victoza.
    • Victoza, a diabetes treatment, touted weight loss as a side effect.
  • Orexigen - Contrave Script Numbers Remain Impressive
    Dec. 22, 2014 OREX 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave Scripts have eclipsed 6,000.
    • Contrave seems poised for big weight loss season numbers.
    • Contrave launch has been the best of the bunch.
  • Belviq Scripts Dip - Lack Of T.V. Ads Will Impact Next Numbers
    Dec. 22, 2014 ARNA 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Scrips lower by 7.6%.
    • No television ads between 12/15 and 12/21 will impact next numbers.
    • 2015 weight loss season more critical.
  • Orexigen Retreats After Positive News In Europe: 3 Things To Watch For
    Dec. 22, 2014 OREX 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Positive CHMP opinion means Orexigen could have the European market to itself.
    • The European Commission must now sign off before drug can be marketed in Europe.
    • Orexigen retains all rights in Europe, but partnership is a possibility.
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Grasp Implications Of Orexigen
    Dec. 19, 2014 OREX 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Orexigen will have a bigger market to tap into after positive recommendation by CHMP.
    • Orexigen just gained a lot of leverage in the marketplace as well as with Wall Street.
    • 2015 weight loss season is now more critical than ever.
  • Contrave Wins Approval Recommendation In Europe
    Dec. 19, 2014 OREX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave will be marketed as Mysimba in Europe.
    • Regulators have recommended approval.
    • The European Commission will likely adopt the recommendation in early 2015.
  • Vivus Tries To Lead Obesity Space With Insurance Coverage
    Dec. 16, 2014 VVUS 42 Comments

    Summary

    • Qsymia has seen a flatter sales trajectory.
    • Vivus deploys the fewest sales reps but enjoys the best insurance coverage.
    • Competition in price from Orexigen could be important to watch.
  • Contrave Sales Continue To Impress
    Dec. 12, 2014 OREX 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave has eclipsed the 5,000 script mark.
    • Launch trajectory is most impressive yet.
    • It is still to early to assess refill data.
  • Arena: Belviq Sales See Pleasant Rebound
    Dec. 12, 2014 ARNA 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales see a near full recovery from Thanksgiving week.
    • Sales trajectory on track to meet guidance.
    • Recall impact should be limited to two weeks of the data and at this stage seems minimal.
  • Assessing The Beginnings Of The Orexigen Launch Of Contrave
    Dec. 10, 2014 OREX 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The launch had a hiccup in the beginning.
    • Trajectory ahead of Arena's Belviq.
    • Investors waiting for January and weight loss season.
  • Arena's Belviq - Regulatory Update And A Recall
    Dec. 8, 2014 ARNA 78 Comments

    Summary

    • Some Belviq bottles recalled for label issues.
    • Application for Belviq in Canada withdrawn.
    • Application for Belviq in Israel submitted.
  • Will Diabetes Drugs Enter The Anti-Obesity Space?
    Dec. 7, 2014 AZN, NVO, OREX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Yet another diabetes medicine touts weight loss side effect in advertising.
    • Crossover between diabetes meds and obesity meds will continue.
    • Diabetes sector already mature.
  • Belviq Sales About What Was Expected For Thanksgiving Week
    Dec. 7, 2014 ARNA 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales on pace to meet guidance.
    • Peak 2014 sales appear to have been the week of October 3rd.
    • Watch sector closely as new year roles out.
  • Belviq Approaches 10,000 Ads Aired
    Dec. 1, 2014 ARNA 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq advertising has been ongoing for 33 weeks.
    • Advertising peaked in September.
    • Is it time for a new ad to launch?
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat, Next Week Will Have A Dip
    Dec. 1, 2014 ARNA 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales have been flat for 12 weeks now.
    • Next week's numbers will be lower because of Thanksgiving.
    • Script sales will be just below 500,000 for the year.
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air
    Nov. 24, 2014 ARNA 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq looks like it is effective for smoking cessation.
    • Belviq as a smoking cessation drug could open up new markets.
    • Look for a second trial to be announced in 2015.
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals: Belviq Sales Take A Modest Dip With Holiday
    Nov. 22, 2014 ARNA 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Veterans Day could have had a small impact.
    • More holidays ahead will likely bring another dip.
    • Sales over last 9 weeks have been essentially flat.
  • Janssen Is Working Its Way Toward Anti-Obesity
    Nov. 17, 2014 NVO, OREX, VVUS Comment!

    Summary

    • Existing approved drug has side effect of weight loss.
    • Janssen joins others that see adding weight loss indication may be worth while.
    • Obesity classified as a disease, but doctors still not prescribing as much as anticipated.