Seeking Alpha

Spencer Osborne

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Spencer Osborne's Articles BY TICKER:
  • Vivus Acquires Patent Rights To Qsymia Ingredient
    Mon, Aug. 25 OREX, VVUS 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Deal With Janssen removes threat of lawsuit filed August 22.
    • Vivus to pay Janssen an undisclosed upfront payment as well as royalties on Qsymia.
    • Deal could help Vivus in Actavis lawsuit where Actavis wants to make a generic Qsymia.
    • Deal could bring about investor questions as to the status of Vivus' rights about the use of toprimate.
  • Advertising And The Belviq Re-Launch
    Mon, Aug. 25 ESALY, VVUS, ARNA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Weekly ads have increased in Q3.
    • Prime Time advertising has increased.
    • Belviq is doing well considering the season.
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2%
    Mon, Aug. 25 ESALY, VVUS, OREX 63 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales of Belviq rise 2%.
    • Belviq ahead of Qsymia for second week in a row.
    • Refills seem stable implying that growth can happen and free trials convert at traditional levels.
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia
    Fri, Aug. 15 OREX, VVUS, ARNA 66 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales have passed Qsymia according to IMS for the first time.
    • Belviq sales down 1% from last week.
    • Quarter over quarter growth at 36%.
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another
    Fri, Aug. 15 VVUS, ARNA 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq enjoys a good event to scripts sold ratio.
    • Qsymia's adverse event ratio is 5 times higher.
    • Data will not be published for months; you get the insight first.
  • A Deeper Look At MannKind - Sanofi Deal And Valuation
    Wed, Aug. 13 MNKD 35 Comments

    Summary

    • MannKind shares in 35% of profits and losses.
    • Sanofi is very experienced in the sector.
    • The street will begin to assess MannKind valuation.
  • MannKind Inks Deal For Afrezza - Can Still See Stormy Days Ahead
    Mon, Aug. 11 MNKD 76 Comments

    Summary

    • Upfront payment of $150 million.
    • Sanofi to partner on inhaled insulin.
    • Shares of MannKind up 25% in pre-market.
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain
    Fri, Aug. 8 OREX, VVUS, ARNA 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sees better week over week gain than Qsymia, but still has not caught up with overall sales numbers.
    • Refills will be something to watch.
    • The next month will be interesting with a possible FDA approval of Orexigen's Contrave.
  • Vivus Beats The Street - Still Has A Loss
    Fri, Aug. 8 ARNA, OREX, VVUS 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Vivus beat the street by $0.4 per share.
    • Revenues beat the street by $4 million.
    • Stendra revenues impress in early stages.
  • Orexigen Hits Expectations But That Is Not The Big News
    Thu, Aug. 7 ARNA, VVUS, OREX 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Loss of $0.21 was in line with the street expectations.
    • Company in high level discussions with FDA regarding Contrave Approval.
    • Company anticipates FDA approval and is preparing big launch strategy.
    • Company is responding to two additional points from European regulatory agency.
  • Belviq Scripts Flat For Arena
    Mon, Aug. 4 ARNA 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Flat scripts demonstrate seasonality and the fact that Eisai is offsetting it.
    • Refills becoming point of focus.
    • Quarter over quarter growth is softening.
  • One-Time Stock Sale Boosts Arena To Profit
    Mon, Aug. 4 ARNA 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Sale of Taigen stock delivered $33 million and a profitable quarter.
    • Belviq prescriptions up nicely, but average revenue per bottle is lower.
    • Free trials offer front-end potential. Can the company convert free trials to paying patients?
  • Possible Delay In Orexigen Approval Process In Europe
    Thu, Jul. 31 ARNA, VVUS, OREX 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Competitors Belviq and Qsymia have not had success in Europe.
    • Orexigen proposes 30 day extension on Europe application.
    • Orexigen still positive on prospects in Europe.
  • Arena Conference Call Sets Stage For Near Term Equity Movement
    Mon, Jul. 28 OREX, ARNA 77 Comments

    Summary

    • Anticipate a miss on EPS and Revenue.
    • Street needs concrete path for confidence.
    • Arena will focus on positives.
  • Arena Sees Belviq Sales Climb Despite Seasonality
    Fri, Jul. 25 ARNA 66 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales buck seasonality trend with reps and advertising.
    • Quarterly call should keep investors cautious.
    • Inflection point to higher sales should begin to show in the next several weeks.
  • Arena Stock Rises With Expected Jump In Belviq Sales
    Fri, Jul. 18 ARNA 97 Comments

    Summary

    • Near-term reaction to sales data as expected.
    • Belviq sales flat over 6 reporting periods.
    • Belviq sales need to show a clear inflection upward for the street to show appreciation.
    • Seasonality is real. The key is how Belviq minimizes its impacts.
  • Arena Gives Pipeline Exposure - Is The Company Partner Shopping?
    Wed, Jul. 16 ARNA 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The pain med market is big.
    • The drug candidate is in Phase 1 studies.
    • Sales of anti-obesity pill Belviq can drive pipeline development.
  • Arena Stock Holds On Expected Dip In Sales - Bottom May Be In
    Fri, Jul. 11 ESALY, OREX, ARNA 47 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales Dip was less than Memorial Day dip.
    • Marketing Push can help combat seasonality.
    • Investors need to think about the full year situation.
  • Arena Prescription Sales OK - CEO Sales Are Not
    Mon, Jul. 7 ARNA 73 Comments

    Summary

    • CEO sells over 200,000 shares and discloses on eve of holiday weekend.
    • Belviq sales fare best in the sector.
    • Seasonality is becoming an issue.
    • Advertising increases 93%.
  • Arena Needs To Hold Eisai Accountable For Re-Launch Of Belviq
    Tue, Jul. 1 ARNA, ESALY 93 Comments

    Summary

    • Television ads need to hit prime time.
    • 200 new sales reps join the 400 already in place with re-launch.
    • Arena need to hold Eisai accountable.
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Flat Again
    Fri, Jun. 27 VVUS, ARNA 63 Comments

    Summary

    • Seasonality seems to be real.
    • A lot hinges on the Eisai re-launch.
    • Equity could see downward pressure in the near term.
    • The July 4th holiday will impact sales numbers two weeks from now.
  • Belviq Sales Flat - Is Seasonality Coming Into Play?
    Fri, Jun. 20 ARNA 134 Comments

    Summary

    • Week-over-week sales are down slightly.
    • Quarter-over-quarter sales remain strong.
    • Inflection point needed for stock to appreciate.
  • The Anti-Obesity Space Is Not As Simple As Some Think
    Fri, Jun. 20 ARNA, ESALY, NVO 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Arena is looking to smoking cessation as driver.
    • Vivus is looking to erectile dysfunction drug as growth area.
    • Orexigen is looking to the diabetes market as the path to profits.
  • What Will It Take For Arena Stock To Rise?
    Mon, Jun. 16 OREX, VVUS, ARNA 92 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales need to demonstrate a concrete upward shift.
    • Arena already trades at a premium to peers.
    • Street expectations come into play no matter what.
  • Vivus Suit Preserves Exclusivity Of Qsymia - For Now
    Fri, Jun. 13 ACT, NVO, OREX 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Suit buys company 30 months of exclusive use.
    • Vivus can use the time to boost sales of Qsymia and Stendra.
    • Decision on suit could impact sector.
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Do More Than Recover
    Fri, Jun. 13 OREX, ARNA 72 Comments

    Summary

    • Script sales are showing signs of breaking $100 million pace.
    • Eisai relaunch of Belviq is an opportunity.
    • Sales can close out the quarter strong.
  • FDA Delays Decision On Orexigen Anti-Obesity Drug - What This Means To The Stock
    Wed, Jun. 11 ARNA, ESALY, VVUS 55 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA delayed decision date until September 11, 2014.
    • Post marketing obligations are key issue.
    • FDA delay means Europe and US decisions could be this fall.
  • Orexigen Investors Hope For FDA Approval
    Tue, Jun. 10 ARNA, ESALY, VVUS 36 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA Scheduled To Decide On Contrave June 11th.
    • If Approved, Contrave Would Be 3rd To Market.
    • Marketing Partner Takeda Said To Dedicate 900 Reps.
    • Free Samples At Doctors Office Could Be Big.
  • Orexigen Could Be A Double-Edged Sword For Arena
    Mon, Jun. 9 ESALY, OREX, VVUS 104 Comments

    Summary

    • The Orexigen FDA decision is due on June 11.
    • Arena needs bonuses to come into play.
    • The anti-obesity space needs traction.
  • Scripts Down, Bearish Article Released, Arena Hangs Tough
    Mon, Jun. 9 ARNA 41 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales down 11% week over week showing holiday impact.
    • Arena holds critical support in face of bearish article.
    • Sales trajectory needs to improve to see equity price improve.
  • Arena's Belviq Catching On With Doctors
    Tue, Jun. 3 ARNA 86 Comments

    Summary

    • The number of doctors prescribing Belviq is up 67% in 3.5 months.
    • Belviq for smoking cessation is a focal point.
    • Most of the pipeline is a 2015 event or beyond.
  • Belviq Sales Climb - Are Ads Effective?
    Fri, May. 30 ESALY, OREX, VVUS 132 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales up 4.7% week-over-week.
    • Estimated gross sales eclipse $30 million in 2014.
    • Caution on next week's numbers due to holiday.