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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Pfizer Setback Could Help Arena
    Wed, Oct. 15 ARNA 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Positive smoking data can excite the street.
    • Belviq may be perceived as a safer alternative to Chantix.
    • With stock near lows, new indications for Belviq could present a shift in sentiment.
  • Belviq Sales Rise Almost 5% Week Over Week
    Fri, Oct. 10 ARNA 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales are showing a trajectory that should allow gross sales to eclipse $100 million.
    • Competition is entering the sector - pay attention.
    • Obesity Week is the first week in November. Look for study news.
    • The first holiday dip in Q4 is two weeks away.
  • Orexigen On A Tear - In The Wrong Direction
    Tue, Oct. 7 OREX 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Street awaits launch date of anti-obesity pills.
    • Street unsure what Orexigen strategy is to launch drug.
    • Europe has not been keen on anti-obesity drugs.
  • Belviq Sales Flat - Model Your Expectations
    Fri, Oct. 3 ARNA 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales flat week-over-week, according to IMS Health.
    • Modeling expectations is critical for success.
    • Holidays in Q4 will present challenges.
  • Belviq Sales Benefit From Advertising - Up 2.8%
    Fri, Sep. 26 ARNA 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales buck seasonality with a positive week.
    • The sales window prior to major holidays has 9 more weeks.
    • Smoking Cessation is a reason to see potential in Belviq.
  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Push - The Equity May See It As Well
    Mon, Sep. 22 ARNA 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Advertising has increased substantially.
    • Better time slots and more prime time ads.
    • Advertising can help with the awareness dynamic and combat seasonality.
  • Belviq Sales Recover From Holiday Dip
    Sun, Sep. 21 ARNA 132 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales make full recovery in 1 week.
    • 10 weeks left before the next major holiday.
    • Sales since launch pass $90 million.
  • A Deeper Look At Belviq And Phentermine - Why Investors Need To Model Expectations
    Fri, Sep. 19 ARNA 83 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq and phentermine have synergistic effects.
    • Eisai study differs from the poster study.
    • Belviq Extended Release could change dynamics.
  • Vivus Up On Erectile Dysfunction Drug - What Should Investors Expect?
    Fri, Sep. 19 VVUS 53 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA news gives Vivus fastest acting ED Drug in U.S.
    • Vivus shifting from anti-obesity Company to ED company.
    • Investors seem to be anticipating good sales of Stendra.
  • Belviq And Phentermine Study Awes Some Investors - Should It?
    Wed, Sep. 17 ARNA 115 Comments

    Summary

    • Study results are compelling for those that need to lose weight.
    • Investors need to look at how the bottom line is impacted.
    • Company Study due out in the next 3 months.
  • Orexigen Falls After Approval - Why?
    Mon, Sep. 15 OREX 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave gained FDA Approval September 10th.
    • Label carries Black Box, but that is not the reason for the fall.
    • Street wants concrete results.
  • Novo Gets Positive Vote From FDA For Anti-Obesity Treatment - Still A Long Road Ahead
    Fri, Sep. 12 NVO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA panel votes 14-1 in favor of Saxenda.
    • Novo Nordisk is seeking an obesity indication for a new dose of inject-able diabetes medication.
    • Trial results have been positive.
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track
    Fri, Sep. 12 ARNA 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales dip 12% with holiday.
    • Sales still pacing to meet or slightly exceed guidance.
    • Positive traction in television ads will boost sales further.
  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Shift
    Fri, Sep. 12 ARNA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Rate of advertising has increased substantially.
    • Time slots of advertising are better.
    • Prime Time Ads are much more frequent.
  • Orexigen's Contrave Approved: What It Means To Arena
    Thu, Sep. 11 OREX 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave joins Belviq and Qsymia on the market.
    • Arena investors need to watch for Orexigen business plan.
    • It is a business deabte, not a product debate.
    • It is critical that the market expand.
    • Contrave reps can help expand the market.
  • FDA Approves Orexigen's Contrave For Obesity Treatment
    Thu, Sep. 11 OREX 16 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA approved Contrave.
    • Contrave joins Belviq and Qsymia as an FDA Approved Weight Loss Option.
    • The label includes a Boxed Warning.
  • Belviq Sales Trends - A Realistic Look
    Fri, Sep. 5 ARNA 87 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales have trended slightly ahead of linear trend lines.
    • Models help investors stay better informed.
    • Expectations should be realistic and have solid research behind them.
  • Belviq Sales See Modest Rise This Week - Caution For Next Week Because Of Holiday
    Fri, Sep. 5 ARNA 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales remain ahead of competitor Qsymia.
    • Belviq sales up 1.4% this week.
    • Next week's numbers will include a holiday - caution warranted.
  • Orexigen Gets Weight Loss Drug Patent, May See Runup Into Approval Decision
    Fri, Sep. 5 OREX 5 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA decision on weight loss drug scheduled for September 11.
    • Drug already has obesity patents.
    • New patent covers drug for insulin resistance.
  • Arena Scores Orphan Drug Status For Pipeline Drug - What It Means For The Stock
    Wed, Sep. 3 ARNA 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Orphan drug status is positive.
    • The drug will enter Phase 2 trials this Fall/Winter.
    • Pipeline valuation is speculative.
  • Belviq Sales Crack Critical Level
    Fri, Aug. 29 ARNA 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Script sales up 3.4%.
    • Scripts sales eclipse 11,000.
    • Trajectories closing out the year are important.
  • Vivus Acquires Patent Rights To Qsymia Ingredient
    Mon, Aug. 25 VVUS 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Deal With Janssen removes threat of lawsuit filed August 22.
    • Vivus to pay Janssen an undisclosed upfront payment as well as royalties on Qsymia.
    • Deal could help Vivus in Actavis lawsuit where Actavis wants to make a generic Qsymia.
    • Deal could bring about investor questions as to the status of Vivus' rights about the use of toprimate.
  • Advertising And The Belviq Re-Launch
    Mon, Aug. 25 ARNA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Weekly ads have increased in Q3.
    • Prime Time advertising has increased.
    • Belviq is doing well considering the season.
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2%
    Mon, Aug. 25 ARNA 65 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales of Belviq rise 2%.
    • Belviq ahead of Qsymia for second week in a row.
    • Refills seem stable implying that growth can happen and free trials convert at traditional levels.
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia
    Fri, Aug. 15 ARNA 66 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales have passed Qsymia according to IMS for the first time.
    • Belviq sales down 1% from last week.
    • Quarter over quarter growth at 36%.
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another
    Fri, Aug. 15 ARNA 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq enjoys a good event to scripts sold ratio.
    • Qsymia's adverse event ratio is 5 times higher.
    • Data will not be published for months; you get the insight first.
  • A Deeper Look At MannKind - Sanofi Deal And Valuation
    Wed, Aug. 13 MNKD 36 Comments

    Summary

    • MannKind shares in 35% of profits and losses.
    • Sanofi is very experienced in the sector.
    • The street will begin to assess MannKind valuation.
  • MannKind Inks Deal For Afrezza - Can Still See Stormy Days Ahead
    Mon, Aug. 11 MNKD 77 Comments

    Summary

    • Upfront payment of $150 million.
    • Sanofi to partner on inhaled insulin.
    • Shares of MannKind up 25% in pre-market.
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain
    Fri, Aug. 8 ARNA 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sees better week over week gain than Qsymia, but still has not caught up with overall sales numbers.
    • Refills will be something to watch.
    • The next month will be interesting with a possible FDA approval of Orexigen's Contrave.
  • Vivus Beats The Street - Still Has A Loss
    Fri, Aug. 8 VVUS 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Vivus beat the street by $0.4 per share.
    • Revenues beat the street by $4 million.
    • Stendra revenues impress in early stages.
  • Orexigen Hits Expectations But That Is Not The Big News
    Thu, Aug. 7 OREX 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Loss of $0.21 was in line with the street expectations.
    • Company in high level discussions with FDA regarding Contrave Approval.
    • Company anticipates FDA approval and is preparing big launch strategy.
    • Company is responding to two additional points from European regulatory agency.
  • Belviq Scripts Flat For Arena
    Mon, Aug. 4 ARNA 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Flat scripts demonstrate seasonality and the fact that Eisai is offsetting it.
    • Refills becoming point of focus.
    • Quarter over quarter growth is softening.