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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air
    Nov. 24, 2014 ARNA 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq looks like it is effective for smoking cessation.
    • Belviq as a smoking cessation drug could open up new markets.
    • Look for a second trial to be announced in 2015.
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals: Belviq Sales Take A Modest Dip With Holiday
    Nov. 22, 2014 ARNA 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Veterans Day could have had a small impact.
    • More holidays ahead will likely bring another dip.
    • Sales over last 9 weeks have been essentially flat.
  • Janssen Is Working Its Way Toward Anti-Obesity
    Nov. 17, 2014 NVO, OREX, VVUS Comment!

    Summary

    • Existing approved drug has side effect of weight loss.
    • Janssen joins others that see adding weight loss indication may be worth while.
    • Obesity classified as a disease, but doctors still not prescribing as much as anticipated.
  • EnteroMedics May Enter The Obesity Space - What Does It Mean?
    Nov. 17, 2014 ETRM 83 Comments

    Summary

    • Pacemaker type device could be a fit between pills and major surgery.
    • In the anti-obesity space more exposure is good.
    • EnteroMedics is a speculative play as the company seeks FDA approval.
  • Belviq Weekly Sales Come In Flat
    Nov. 14, 2014 ARNA 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales are slightly below peak week at the beginning of the quarter.
    • Sales are on pace to meet expectations.
    • Next week's number will include Veteran's Day.
  • Belviq For Smoking Cessation - Sizzle Or Smolder?
    Nov. 14, 2014 ARNA 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq announced results from a clinical trial for Belviq in smoking cessation.
    • Comparisons to Chantix are not easy.
    • The smoking cessation market is worth hundreds of millions.
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Watch Orexigen
    Nov. 10, 2014 ARNA 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave from Orexigen is the pricing leader.
    • Contrave's discount program seems to have a lot of traction.
    • Equity appreciation is tied to revenues.
  • Orexigen Beats The Street On Milestone Payments
    Nov. 10, 2014 OREX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Company shows a 9 cent per share profit on $30 million in milestones.
    • Company expecting another $70 million in milestones in Q4.
    • Company anticipates European decision in December.
  • Belviq Sales Dip Slightly - Quarter Is Flat Thus Far
    Nov. 7, 2014 ARNA 46 Comments

    Summary

    • Q4 script sales are flat at the five week point.
    • Gross sales still pace to $100 million - Arena's share is about $17 million.
    • Weeks ahead will show if competitor Contrave is going to make waves.
  • Vivus Beats The Street On Milestone Payment For ED Drug
    Nov. 6, 2014 VVUS 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Qsymia sales account for $12.5 million in revenue.
    • Stendra accounts for $21.5 million.
    • 140,000 bottles of Qsymia sold in the quarter.
  • Will Belviq Advertising Pick Up Again?
    Nov. 6, 2014 ARNA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Advertising peaked during the first week in October.
    • Political ads could have been reason for decline in ads over last 4 weeks.
    • Advertising now builds awareness for weight loss season.
  • Orexigen's Contrave Has Modest Start
    Nov. 3, 2014 OREX 16 Comments

    Summary

    • First full week of scripts were just under 400.
    • Contrave needs impressive launch to impress the street.
    • Marketing partner Takeda has dedicated 900 reps to launch.
  • Arena Beats The Street On Taigen Stock Sale
    Nov. 3, 2014 ARNA 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Quarter beats on stock sale - meets expectations otherwise.
    • Arena released top-line results of smoking study.
    • Revenue is tracking in line with overall 2014 expectations.
  • Belviq Sales Recover From Holiday - Sales Flat In Q4 Thus Far
    Oct. 31, 2014 ARNA 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales recovered from the holiday.
    • Watch the sales as a new competitor in Contrave enters the space.
    • Obesity Week and quarterly earnings are on tap.
  • Eisai Earnings Give Arena Investors Insights
    Oct. 31, 2014 ARNA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Eisai reports net belviq Revenue of $16.8 million.
    • My revenue estimates were spot on with what was reported.
    • Arena's Taigen investment is wild card.
    • Arena reports earnings next week.
    • Between 35% and 40% of weekly scripts are free trials.
  • Arena Offers Tease On Belviq And Phentermine
    Oct. 29, 2014 ARNA 20 Comments

    Summary

    • A safety study looked at Belviq in combination with phentermine.
    • The two drugs can work in synergy to bring about more weight loss.
    • Further studies will be needed to change the label.
  • Belviq Sales Dip During Holiday Week, Should Show Steady Progress From Here
    Oct. 27, 2014 ARNA 45 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales drop 2.7% week over week.
    • A new competitor is entering the space.
    • The next 6 weeks are critical.
  • Arena Investors Need To Watch Contrave Launch Closely
    Oct. 22, 2014 ARNA 110 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave enters the market priced substantially less than Belviq.
    • Takeda seems to be focused on a strong launch.
    • Eisai may need to shift strategy at some point.
  • Orexigen Launches Contrave - Watch For Traction
    Oct. 20, 2014 OREX 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Drug enters already competitive landscape.
    • Changing doctor and consumer sentiment is key.
    • Work done now should reap rewards in weight loss season.
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead
    Oct. 17, 2014 ARNA 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales dipped 1.8% from last week.
    • Competitor launch is pending - pay attention.
    • Sales between now and Thanksgiving are critical.
  • What To Watch For As Orexigen's Launch Approaches
    Oct. 16, 2014 OREX 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Company received $30 million related to approval of Contrave.
    • Company will receive $70 million related to shipment of Contrave to Distributors.
    • Company anticipates closing out the year with over $190 million in cash.
  • Pfizer Setback Could Help Arena
    Oct. 15, 2014 ARNA 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Positive smoking data can excite the street.
    • Belviq may be perceived as a safer alternative to Chantix.
    • With stock near lows, new indications for Belviq could present a shift in sentiment.
  • Belviq Sales Rise Almost 5% Week Over Week
    Oct. 10, 2014 ARNA 96 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales are showing a trajectory that should allow gross sales to eclipse $100 million.
    • Competition is entering the sector - pay attention.
    • Obesity Week is the first week in November. Look for study news.
    • The first holiday dip in Q4 is two weeks away.
  • Orexigen On A Tear - In The Wrong Direction
    Oct. 7, 2014 OREX 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Street awaits launch date of anti-obesity pills.
    • Street unsure what Orexigen strategy is to launch drug.
    • Europe has not been keen on anti-obesity drugs.
  • Belviq Sales Flat - Model Your Expectations
    Oct. 3, 2014 ARNA 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales flat week-over-week, according to IMS Health.
    • Modeling expectations is critical for success.
    • Holidays in Q4 will present challenges.
  • Belviq Sales Benefit From Advertising - Up 2.8%
    Sep. 26, 2014 ARNA 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales buck seasonality with a positive week.
    • The sales window prior to major holidays has 9 more weeks.
    • Smoking Cessation is a reason to see potential in Belviq.
  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Push - The Equity May See It As Well
    Sep. 22, 2014 ARNA 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Advertising has increased substantially.
    • Better time slots and more prime time ads.
    • Advertising can help with the awareness dynamic and combat seasonality.
  • Belviq Sales Recover From Holiday Dip
    Sep. 21, 2014 ARNA 132 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales make full recovery in 1 week.
    • 10 weeks left before the next major holiday.
    • Sales since launch pass $90 million.
  • A Deeper Look At Belviq And Phentermine - Why Investors Need To Model Expectations
    Sep. 19, 2014 ARNA 83 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq and phentermine have synergistic effects.
    • Eisai study differs from the poster study.
    • Belviq Extended Release could change dynamics.
  • Vivus Up On Erectile Dysfunction Drug - What Should Investors Expect?
    Sep. 19, 2014 VVUS 53 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA news gives Vivus fastest acting ED Drug in U.S.
    • Vivus shifting from anti-obesity Company to ED company.
    • Investors seem to be anticipating good sales of Stendra.
  • Belviq And Phentermine Study Awes Some Investors - Should It?
    Sep. 17, 2014 ARNA 115 Comments

    Summary

    • Study results are compelling for those that need to lose weight.
    • Investors need to look at how the bottom line is impacted.
    • Company Study due out in the next 3 months.
  • Orexigen Falls After Approval - Why?
    Sep. 15, 2014 OREX 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave gained FDA Approval September 10th.
    • Label carries Black Box, but that is not the reason for the fall.
    • Street wants concrete results.