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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Novo Gets Positive Vote From FDA For Anti-Obesity Treatment - Still A Long Road Ahead
    Fri, Sep. 12 NVO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA panel votes 14-1 in favor of Saxenda.
    • Novo Nordisk is seeking an obesity indication for a new dose of inject-able diabetes medication.
    • Trial results have been positive.
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track
    Fri, Sep. 12 ARNA 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales dip 12% with holiday.
    • Sales still pacing to meet or slightly exceed guidance.
    • Positive traction in television ads will boost sales further.
  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Shift
    Fri, Sep. 12 ARNA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Rate of advertising has increased substantially.
    • Time slots of advertising are better.
    • Prime Time Ads are much more frequent.
  • Orexigen's Contrave Approved: What It Means To Arena
    Thu, Sep. 11 OREX 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Contrave joins Belviq and Qsymia on the market.
    • Arena investors need to watch for Orexigen business plan.
    • It is a business deabte, not a product debate.
    • It is critical that the market expand.
    • Contrave reps can help expand the market.
  • FDA Approves Orexigen's Contrave For Obesity Treatment
    Thu, Sep. 11 OREX 16 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA approved Contrave.
    • Contrave joins Belviq and Qsymia as an FDA Approved Weight Loss Option.
    • The label includes a Boxed Warning.
  • Belviq Sales Trends - A Realistic Look
    Fri, Sep. 5 ARNA 87 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales have trended slightly ahead of linear trend lines.
    • Models help investors stay better informed.
    • Expectations should be realistic and have solid research behind them.
  • Belviq Sales See Modest Rise This Week - Caution For Next Week Because Of Holiday
    Fri, Sep. 5 ARNA 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales remain ahead of competitor Qsymia.
    • Belviq sales up 1.4% this week.
    • Next week's numbers will include a holiday - caution warranted.
  • Orexigen Gets Weight Loss Drug Patent, May See Runup Into Approval Decision
    Fri, Sep. 5 OREX 5 Comments

    Summary

    • FDA decision on weight loss drug scheduled for September 11.
    • Drug already has obesity patents.
    • New patent covers drug for insulin resistance.
  • Arena Scores Orphan Drug Status For Pipeline Drug - What It Means For The Stock
    Wed, Sep. 3 ARNA 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Orphan drug status is positive.
    • The drug will enter Phase 2 trials this Fall/Winter.
    • Pipeline valuation is speculative.
  • Belviq Sales Crack Critical Level
    Fri, Aug. 29 ARNA 62 Comments

    Summary

    • Script sales up 3.4%.
    • Scripts sales eclipse 11,000.
    • Trajectories closing out the year are important.
  • Vivus Acquires Patent Rights To Qsymia Ingredient
    Mon, Aug. 25 VVUS 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Deal With Janssen removes threat of lawsuit filed August 22.
    • Vivus to pay Janssen an undisclosed upfront payment as well as royalties on Qsymia.
    • Deal could help Vivus in Actavis lawsuit where Actavis wants to make a generic Qsymia.
    • Deal could bring about investor questions as to the status of Vivus' rights about the use of toprimate.
  • Advertising And The Belviq Re-Launch
    Mon, Aug. 25 ARNA 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Weekly ads have increased in Q3.
    • Prime Time advertising has increased.
    • Belviq is doing well considering the season.
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2%
    Mon, Aug. 25 ARNA 65 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales of Belviq rise 2%.
    • Belviq ahead of Qsymia for second week in a row.
    • Refills seem stable implying that growth can happen and free trials convert at traditional levels.
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia
    Fri, Aug. 15 ARNA 66 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales have passed Qsymia according to IMS for the first time.
    • Belviq sales down 1% from last week.
    • Quarter over quarter growth at 36%.
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another
    Fri, Aug. 15 ARNA 34 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq enjoys a good event to scripts sold ratio.
    • Qsymia's adverse event ratio is 5 times higher.
    • Data will not be published for months; you get the insight first.
  • A Deeper Look At MannKind - Sanofi Deal And Valuation
    Wed, Aug. 13 MNKD 36 Comments

    Summary

    • MannKind shares in 35% of profits and losses.
    • Sanofi is very experienced in the sector.
    • The street will begin to assess MannKind valuation.
  • MannKind Inks Deal For Afrezza - Can Still See Stormy Days Ahead
    Mon, Aug. 11 MNKD 77 Comments

    Summary

    • Upfront payment of $150 million.
    • Sanofi to partner on inhaled insulin.
    • Shares of MannKind up 25% in pre-market.
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain
    Fri, Aug. 8 ARNA 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sees better week over week gain than Qsymia, but still has not caught up with overall sales numbers.
    • Refills will be something to watch.
    • The next month will be interesting with a possible FDA approval of Orexigen's Contrave.
  • Vivus Beats The Street - Still Has A Loss
    Fri, Aug. 8 VVUS 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Vivus beat the street by $0.4 per share.
    • Revenues beat the street by $4 million.
    • Stendra revenues impress in early stages.
  • Orexigen Hits Expectations But That Is Not The Big News
    Thu, Aug. 7 OREX 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Loss of $0.21 was in line with the street expectations.
    • Company in high level discussions with FDA regarding Contrave Approval.
    • Company anticipates FDA approval and is preparing big launch strategy.
    • Company is responding to two additional points from European regulatory agency.
  • Belviq Scripts Flat For Arena
    Mon, Aug. 4 ARNA 57 Comments

    Summary

    • Flat scripts demonstrate seasonality and the fact that Eisai is offsetting it.
    • Refills becoming point of focus.
    • Quarter over quarter growth is softening.
  • One-Time Stock Sale Boosts Arena To Profit
    Mon, Aug. 4 ARNA 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Sale of Taigen stock delivered $33 million and a profitable quarter.
    • Belviq prescriptions up nicely, but average revenue per bottle is lower.
    • Free trials offer front-end potential. Can the company convert free trials to paying patients?
  • Possible Delay In Orexigen Approval Process In Europe
    Thu, Jul. 31 OREX 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Competitors Belviq and Qsymia have not had success in Europe.
    • Orexigen proposes 30 day extension on Europe application.
    • Orexigen still positive on prospects in Europe.
  • Arena Conference Call Sets Stage For Near Term Equity Movement
    Mon, Jul. 28 ARNA 77 Comments

    Summary

    • Anticipate a miss on EPS and Revenue.
    • Street needs concrete path for confidence.
    • Arena will focus on positives.
  • Arena Sees Belviq Sales Climb Despite Seasonality
    Fri, Jul. 25 ARNA 66 Comments

    Summary

    • Belviq sales buck seasonality trend with reps and advertising.
    • Quarterly call should keep investors cautious.
    • Inflection point to higher sales should begin to show in the next several weeks.
  • Arena Stock Rises With Expected Jump In Belviq Sales
    Fri, Jul. 18 ARNA 93 Comments

    Summary

    • Near-term reaction to sales data as expected.
    • Belviq sales flat over 6 reporting periods.
    • Belviq sales need to show a clear inflection upward for the street to show appreciation.
    • Seasonality is real. The key is how Belviq minimizes its impacts.
  • Arena Gives Pipeline Exposure - Is The Company Partner Shopping?
    Wed, Jul. 16 ARNA 43 Comments

    Summary

    • The pain med market is big.
    • The drug candidate is in Phase 1 studies.
    • Sales of anti-obesity pill Belviq can drive pipeline development.
  • Arena Stock Holds On Expected Dip In Sales - Bottom May Be In
    Fri, Jul. 11 ARNA 47 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales Dip was less than Memorial Day dip.
    • Marketing Push can help combat seasonality.
    • Investors need to think about the full year situation.
  • Arena Prescription Sales OK - CEO Sales Are Not
    Mon, Jul. 7 ARNA 73 Comments

    Summary

    • CEO sells over 200,000 shares and discloses on eve of holiday weekend.
    • Belviq sales fare best in the sector.
    • Seasonality is becoming an issue.
    • Advertising increases 93%.
  • Arena Needs To Hold Eisai Accountable For Re-Launch Of Belviq
    Tue, Jul. 1 ARNA 95 Comments

    Summary

    • Television ads need to hit prime time.
    • 200 new sales reps join the 400 already in place with re-launch.
    • Arena need to hold Eisai accountable.
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Flat Again
    Fri, Jun. 27 ARNA 63 Comments

    Summary

    • Seasonality seems to be real.
    • A lot hinges on the Eisai re-launch.
    • Equity could see downward pressure in the near term.
    • The July 4th holiday will impact sales numbers two weeks from now.
  • Belviq Sales Flat - Is Seasonality Coming Into Play?
    Fri, Jun. 20 ARNA 134 Comments

    Summary

    • Week-over-week sales are down slightly.
    • Quarter-over-quarter sales remain strong.
    • Inflection point needed for stock to appreciate.