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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Orexigen Soars: Good News Is Heart Data, Bad News Is Data May Be Compromised [View article]
    Oof.....

    It was a good move in terms of patents, and getting the word out about positives. If trial discontinues, they save cost with the cat already out of the bag. If the trial continues, they simply move along. They may get beat up a bit for it, but it seems that the near term positives could outweigh negatives
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Soars: Good News Is Heart Data, Bad News Is Data May Be Compromised [View article]
    ruf...

    Meeting is mid march. There were a few members that wanted to discuss the matter at the stand up meeting. CHMP had 29 positive votes and 2 negative. One could surmise that one of the negatives wanted a stand up meeting. In all likelihood, a decision is rendered this month
    Mar 4, 2015. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Soars: Good News Is Heart Data, Bad News Is Data May Be Compromised [View article]
    Scientist....

    The FDA could take exception to what transpired and perhaps levy a penalty of sorts.

    If the trial is deemed tainted, the data gathered may not be acceptable for peer review journals, etc.

    Europe may look at this issue as an indication that Orexigen is fast and loose.

    We already know that a new trial was already demanded and agreed to by Orexigen, but now the current trial may carry little or no value
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Dip - Better Sales, Not Excuses Are Needed [View article]
    jakes....

    The argument about the short side of the market is perhaps the biggest overblown argument ever put out there. Shorts were not slaughtered on this move because it is overblown and the equity will retrace. This is the same as longs not being slaughtered when a stock takes a hit. They simply wait out the noise.

    The fact is that the most intelligent traders in the market are usually the players that bet the short side.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings: Investors Need To Look Deeper [View article]
    jakes....

    Refile in Europe by March 31 2016.

    Smoking trial is after that.

    Smoking trial starts in about July of 2015. Trial takes a year. Results take a month or two to tabulate. That brings us to August or September of 2016 when they can file for approval in the US (assuming good results in trial). Another 6 months to get approval. Smoking approval in US is in February or march of 2017 at the earliest.

    Contrave heart data is very positive. It is something other anti-obesity drugs have lacked. The data can not go on the label, but the word is out.

    Stock move was overblown, as are many big pops or big drops. I anticipate that it will pull back
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings: Investors Need To Look Deeper [View article]
    Cali....

    Correct.

    In 2014 I was using about $110 net per bottle.

    In 2015 they lowered the price to $75. I went with that until we got more flavor. We now got that flavor in the form of a range. I will model based on a net number of $90.
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Scripts Dip With Sector [View article]
    Looking at weekly numbers allows projection of longer term items
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings: Investors Need To Look Deeper [View article]
    Sharon.....

    The company did the same type of "guidance" last year. Everyone ran with it. Suddenly this year it becomes a stretch? Interesting.

    The fact is that the company guided that the majority of revenue will be derived from arenas share of net sales.

    Do you agree that the company guided to $19 million in other revenue?

    Do you agree that the company guided to Belviq revenue being the majority of revenue?

    Do you agree that Belviq revenue of $19,000,001 would mean that it would represent the majority of revenue?

    Do you agree that I stated that the guidance is therefore "greater than $19 million"?

    Do you agree that I stated that the guidance for total revenue was "$38 million or more"?

    Do you agree that I stated, "While the company did set $19 million as a base without providing a ceiling, the very fact that they would go as low as $19 million is not exuding confidence in the sales figures."

    Sharon, these types of things that critical thinkers look at.

    Are you pleased that they did not give a specific number? Do you find it comforting that they can not guide to sales after almost two years on the market? Are you pleased that we still do not get flavor on refill rates?

    Sharon, here is a simple question.

    What do you believe revenue from U.S sales of Belviq will be in 2015? I would almost be willing to bet that you will avoid not only that critical question, but also every other question I posed to you. You seem the type that never wants to commit to a number because it opens the possibility of having to be a critical thinker
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Dip - Better Sales, Not Excuses Are Needed [View article]
    A....

    It is one of my speculative plays. I like the smoking cessation aspect of Belviq and see potential there. If there is a shift in how people think about obesity, the market should reward companies involved. Right now arena makes up about 10% of my folio. I may trim down to 5% in the weeks ahead depending on sales traction and price action
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings: Investors Need To Look Deeper [View article]
    M.....

    Trimming my position does not mean I will stop covering the equity or the sector.

    Pipeline is still at least two yeas out. Certainly it is interesting, but it does not make up a large portion of valuation estimates of any analysts
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings: Investors Need To Look Deeper [View article]
    Sharon....

    If they state that other revenue will be $19 million and that Belviq revenue will be the majority of their revenue tun hey did indeed give a baseline for guidance on Belviq sales. Hat baseline is "greater than $19 million".

    A basebf $19 Million is not very glowing.

    Can they do $19 million? They better. The street is looking for $35 million from the U.s. Alone.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Dip - Better Sales, Not Excuses Are Needed [View article]
    dax....

    I put a piece up on my site already. Check it out. I am looking at modeling about $90 net per bottle now ($28.35). That lowers required scripts to about 1.235 million. That being said, pace is still below my 1 million line....thus drastic improvement is needed.

    South Korea will deliver about 15% to 20% of the U.S. market, but needs time to develop.

    Analysts are looking at pipe to find some reason for justifying valuations. Pipe is 2 years away. odds are that at least 2 of the 4 pipe items will fall by the wayside. Further, analysts are trying to gauge whether any cash from a deal will be on the table. As things sit now, another 10% dilution is in the cards 12 to 18 months from now unless there is a stark shift.

    They should have done 1 dilution at 20% this last go around. The cash situation leave a lot to be desired.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Dip - Better Sales, Not Excuses Are Needed [View article]
    a....

    I think that the share price is having trouble because script sales have been having trouble. Revenue is not going to be there if things do not change quickly
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Dip - Better Sales, Not Excuses Are Needed [View article]
    Gowie....

    The concept of the lower price was that sales and refills would increase. essentially, the idea was to increase volume to offset the drop in cost.

    There is a certain amount of revenue that is needed if arena is going to operate in a manner that brings investors to the table.

    If the street lowers expectations again, then we are looking at a pretty bad situation and looking at a reality that belviq sales will not attain levels that trigger bonuses, etc.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus - Flat Qsymia Scripts Point To Needed Shift [View article]
    mrr.....

    There are two sides to that coin. Vivus owns 100% of the cost of post approval clinical trials.
    Mar 2, 2015. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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