Seeking Alpha

Spencer Osborne

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Spencer Osborne's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Grasp Implications Of Orexigen [View article]
    aren....

    I observed the issue on Monday when it happened. After another day without ads, and trying to see if it was a tachnical issue with iSpot, I broke the news and wrote about it for my members the following day. Two days later, when the ads were still not running, I covered it in an instablog here on SA:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    This type of news is something an investor will want to know, but in and of itself (36 hours to 48 hours in) was not really a syndicated article type of event. It is the type of insight I give members. At the 3 day mark, I put it out in an instablog for non-members.

    There could be many reasons for it. I cover them in the instablog linked above.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Grasp Implications Of Orexigen [View article]
    aren....

    I have at times considered an investment in Orex. It never hit my target buy in price. I may consider it again. There will be a lull prior to marketing in Europe. I assess it frequently, but am in no hurry jump in. I do far better in other sectors. My exposure in pharma right now is probably about 15%, and that is about where I am comfortable at the moment.

    I write about ARNA because I know it well, can gauge it well, and like to write.

    Arena does not have a large base. It is probably 5% of the base that SiriusXM had. If I want a large base I can write about Apple, Rambus, Samsung, etc.

    I do not really monitor the numbers of followers or readers. It is not really a driver for me.

    Subscribers....I do not have a bunch of subscribers. Retail investors, as a whole are cheap (not all, but the vast majority). I learned that long ago. Writing, and every aspect involved with it makes a very, very, very modest revenue stream. So much so that it is essentially inconsequential to me.

    Simply stated, I like to write. It keeps me on my toes, and forces me to be very objective in how I look at investments. It has made me a better and more critical investor...even in companies that I invest in and very rarely write about.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Grasp Implications Of Orexigen [View article]
    Robert...

    http://bit.ly/16AfDWx

    That will give you some data
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Grasp Implications Of Orexigen [View article]
    CER...

    Of the three companies, Arena has the most robust pipeline. Getting through trials is what needs to happen. In concept, if sales of belviq were what the company had expected, cash would not be an issue. Instead, we have to consider cash needs and those possible implications over the next 12 months.

    There will be a lot to watch in the first half of 2015
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Grasp Implications Of Orexigen [View article]
    Pax...

    Depends who you ask. There are some that say that the rat tumors is the big hang up. I tend to agree with you that the heart data would go a long way in shifting the opinion.

    The assessment on Belviq was that the risk vs. reward ratio was not good enough. CHMP cited:

    "Based on the review of the data and the company’s response to the CHMP lists of questions, at the time of the withdrawal the CHMP had some concerns and was of the provisional opinion that Belviq could not have been approved for weight control in obese and overweight patients. Although a modest benefit in terms of weight loss was seen in the main studies, the Committee was concerned about the potential risk of tumours, particularly with long-term use, based on the results of laboratory tests. The CHMP also had other safety concerns, including the potential risk of psychiatric disorders (such as depression) and valvulopathy (problems with the heart valves), which were seen in some patients during the studies. Therefore, at the time of the withdrawal, the CHMP was of the opinion that the benefits of Belviq did not outweigh its risks."
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus Investors Need To Grasp Implications Of Orexigen [View article]
    Jakes....

    There is a lot to play out yet. What I am saying is that if you are invested in this sector, you need to pay attention to these things. I have been of the opinion that early 2015 is critical in terms of my investment in Arena.

    Lets look at this for a moment (strictly weight loss):

    Vivus has been pretty flat, and that lack of growth is now more pronounced with a new player on the market. Vivus has costs for studies to absorb, and may need capital at some point

    Arena has been growing, but has had a flat Q4. Arena has cash, but will be getting down to $100 million by mid 2015 and will likely need capital because sales are not delivering cash at the levels needed to drive the pipeline.

    Orex has a good cash stockpile and just gained approval in Eurpoe, where it has all rights. That makes Contrave more valuable if a deal is cut, which brings in a tidy sum. The revenues will still be slim from US sales, but they have the Europe carrot to satisfy the street.

    I have outlined my projections for 2015 already. If they are not tracking to those, then I will consider my selling options. Bear in mind, if they lower the price, then I will have to shift my model. I am looking for $34 million in Belviq revenue for 2015.

    I assess my moves at very regular intervals. Right now I am in. I will let people know when I am considering getting out.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrave Wins Approval Recommendation In Europe [View article]
    Jakes.....

    It is not about morals. My opinion about drugs is rather simple. I avoid them if at all possible because I prefer more natural solutions to things.

    I have not stated that europeans are healthier. They do however take steps to avoid certain products that are known to create problems. These are simple steps that could be taken here if our governing bodies ever stopped for a moment to think.

    I have long felt that Contrave might hit the sweet spot with Europe. Again, the components are well understood by medicine and science in terms of what they do and what risks are present.

    From a business standpoint Orex just scored a massive victory.

    How many times have you heard someone say "Belviq is safe"?

    What makes it safe? Do you think these people would call it safe?

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Among the three, Belviq seems to have demonstrated the "safest" profile. However, it is the one that is least understood as well and that is a risk.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrave Wins Approval Recommendation In Europe [View article]
    skalvi...

    I do not see EU approving Belviq Europe in 2015. I think that had they had the answers that would lead to approval, we would have seen them by now.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Tries To Lead Obesity Space With Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Jakes....

    I bring it up when people start to go down the path that you went down in this thread. My opinion on prescription drugs is simply my opinion.

    SiriusXM has a Catholic channel as well. A momorn channel, and even a general christian channel. Stern is a small segment of what that company offers. Do I turn off my cable or not invest in Time Warner or Cox because they have some show on the air that carries content I do not like?

    I am not bringing morality into this discussion. I am bringing levity to it.

    You brought up the black box hogwash (and yes, that is what it is). I simply stated that all of these drugs have disastrous side effect possibilities. None of them are something that I would consider.

    The safest drug is the one that carries the best risk vs. reward ratio for the individual patient. It could be any one of them....or none of them.

    What happens when people start reporting depression from any drug?
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrave Wins Approval Recommendation In Europe [View article]
    Jakes....

    They assessed risk vs. reward on all three. At this stage only Contrave passed muster.

    If you look at Europe a bit more closely, you will see that it is not the EU that is crazy, but rather the US.

    Did you know that Johnson's baby shampoo that is sold in the United States could not be sold in Europe? There was a different formula for Europe which removes the cheaper carcinogens that are in the U.S. product.

    The make-up[ industry has entirely different formulations for europe. In many ways Europe is light years ahead of the U.S. on these fronts. Read this and you will be stunned!

    http://bit.ly/16A1icF

    The opinion of Europe was that Belviq had "modest efficacy". Think of efficacy as the "reward". If you have a low reward, then you better have a very low risk. They did not pass muster on that front. Bear in mind that there is a lot about Belviq that is not understood yet. That in and of itself is a risk. The components of Contrave are already approved in Europe and well understood.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Television Ads Have Stopped [View instapost]
    of course, that is after I tell my members...LOL...but the delay will not be long
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Tries To Lead Obesity Space With Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Readers....

    More "confusion"

    This "news" is not really new news. The CVS Caremark PDL was done back in October. It will likely be at least 6 months before the PDL is updated. Being the sole drug on the PDL does not mean that it is the only drug with coverage options.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Tries To Lead Obesity Space With Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Value....

    I think there is a lack of "sympathy" when it comes to weight.

    There is a general thought that a person should be able to control their intake of food and get enough exercise to resolve the issue. There is a method of "cure" for most obesity that is no cost to an insurance company. PROPER diet and PROPER exercise.

    This mentality is very present:

    "If people do not care enough about themselves to do what it takes to maintain a healthy weight, then why should insurance companies care enough to pay."

    There is also a soft cost vs. hard cost analysis that happens.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Television Ads Have Stopped [View instapost]
    One....

    LOL...

    I will certainly let people know. When I see them resume I will put a quick comment up here on this instablog.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrave Sales Continue To Impress [View article]
    Investing....

    That was the tough step. Now the European Committee needs to put on its stamp of approval (somewhat of a formality). That is expected in early 2015. I have an article submitted....should be out soon
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
7,665 Comments
5,992 Likes