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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Orexigen Falls After Approval - Why? [View article]
    kevin....

    I am not trying to downplay the equity.

    The fact of the matter is that the anti-obesity space is still trying to figure itself out.

    179k did surgery in 2013. Would they try a pill first? would they try an injection first.....then we have the path that insurance will force on people thanks to the travesty that is Obamacare. It is still early. Lets start by getting rid of Obamacare....that would solve a wealth of problems in and of itself.
    Sep 15 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Falls After Approval - Why? [View article]
    Kevin....

    Yes, it fits between the two. Will enough people want this type of solution? This is not an easy market.
    Sep 15 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Falls After Approval - Why? [View article]
    Kevin...

    As some readers know, I am not a big fan of any prescription drug. That being said, the warning on Contrave was expected, because it already exists on a component of Contrave. The "positive" is that the components of Contrave are well understood because they have been on the market so long.

    ETRM is interesting, but has its own set of drawbacks.

    The best choice is a solution that works well for the patient. My opinion is that getting the patient to eat right and exercise right would be the "ultimate solution". The world is not perfect though
    Sep 15 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Falls After Approval - Why? [View article]
    Readers....

    Insiders buy shares

    http://bit.ly/1oQW0fe

    http://bit.ly/1oQW2Ua
    Sep 15 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Falls After Approval - Why? [View article]
    yitzi....

    You can have a very selective memory if you so desire. Let's review:

    1. Belviq is on a pace for $100 million in 2014. It is not there yet. When the CEO sold, the equity broke down. $6 fell off the table when that happened.

    2. I did call the $6.00 area a bottom. I had no idea that the CEO would sell over $1 million worth of stock at what was the most inopportune time. No one did. You CONVENIENTLY leave out my comments after that happened.

    3. I called Orexigen a buy at a price near $5. Please see the links.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    "At this point, Orexigen longs may not appreciate what I have to say. I anticipated a run-up into approval, but also anticipate a fall back once the decision is made. If approved (which I see as very likely), a small run will continue, but as excitement wears off, it will settle down. If rejected (which I do not think is likely) a sell-off will be immediate. This is one of those occasions where a judicious use of stops may be warranted. Using stops wisely can allow you to maximize the gains of the run without sacrificing too much. Just be careful where you set them.

    The fact of the matter is that Orexigen will go from excitement of approval to having to show sales that demonstrate that the drug will have traction. That takes time. Over the past two years, the prescription anti-obesity space has not set the world on fire in terms of sales. Betting that Orexigen will change that attitude overnight is not really a sound bet in my opinion."

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    "All in all, it is now time to monitor the stock price of Orexigen, reset the game clock, and look for yet another run-up a few months from now. Traders will steer this equity for a week or so. It is my suspicion that the equity could test down by that $5 range again in the next 6 weeks or so and begin a new run up into what should be an FDA approval in September. Orexigen is anticipating some action in July from Europe with the 180-Day questions. We should get a little flavor on chances in Europe at that point. Stay Tuned!"

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    "Orexigen has been trading down ever since the June delay in the FDA approval process. The stock had reached as high as $6.80 leading into the anticipated June decision but has fallen to $5.25 on the delay. As the September 11th FDA decision date approaches, I anticipate that the equity will begin to gain some traction. If approval is finally received, the stock could see some very interesting trading in the subsequent days. Unlike the more substantial run-ups that Vivus and Arena saw upon approval, I anticipate the Orexigen run to be more modest. The slower than anticipated sales of Qsymia and Belviq have tempered expectations."

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    "In my opinion the equity will have a run-up into the news of possible approval and like Vivus and Arena, see a sell-off after the decision. If approved, the street will be looking for sales numbers that are stronger than the modest pace that Qsymia and Belviq saw with their respective launches. I think that the street will play Orexigen more conservatively than it played the competitors. In the near term Orexigen is likely more suited for speculative active traders. Stay Tuned!"

    Yes, you have a right to a selective memory in your own world, but please do not apply it to mine.
    Sep 15 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track [View article]
    PAC....

    Pace is at $10 million to arena now. It will be more by years end, but not where it needs to be
    Sep 13 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track [View article]
    Counter....

    Doctors and consumers do not seem to be on board as yet. The issue is cost. Until there is a solution at a price point that consumers are willing to pay out of pocket, this will be a very long road.
    Sep 13 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track [View article]
    Sedric.....

    The $200 million that the Eisai Japan CEO guided to at the annual meeting in May of 2013 and the $150 million that the Eisai USA CEO spoke about in June of 2013 were gross sales numbers
    Sep 13 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Shift [View article]
    Jim.....

    $250 to $400 million as a range for next year? Kind of a wide gap

    Next year will be about $200 to $250.

    Bonus plan is a 2017 event...even the most bullish analyst has that
    Sep 12 09:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track [View article]
    Jim....

    Let's crystal use this

    You would rather say that Arena is misrepresenting the bottles shipped quarter after quarter than figure out that the symphony number is the one that needs adjustment.

    You would rather say that Arena us misrepresenting the average revenue per bottle than acknowledge that it is the symphony number that needs to be adjusted.

    You would rather believe that arena should revile several SEC documents thsn acknowledge that it us likely the symphony number that needs to be adjusted.

    Of course, you will shape your stance depending on the conversation. In other words you want the revenue per bottle reported by arena applied to the higher symphony number. That is how over passionate investors think. Let's remember, you are calling for the stick price o be between $16 and $17 in the next 12 to 16 months.

    Have you ever taken the time to model your projections? I don't think you have.
    Sep 12 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track [View article]
    sb....

    Look at half bottles (the freebies).
    Sep 12 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track [View article]
    Jim....

    NOPE....

    You can believe what you want because you lWANT it to be, but the things you WANT have simply had a propensity to be quite off the mark.

    I understand about 100 times more about the distribution that you could ever hope to understand.

    It is IMPOSSIBLE for the sales to be higher than the bottles shipped. Get used to it.

    I speak to people at Symphony as well. Your sources likely simply HUMOR you because you are so obtuse.

    I have not said that their numbers are fraudulent. That is your imagination. I have pointed out where the likely discrepancy is. Half bottles accounted for differently.
    Sep 12 07:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales See Holiday Dip - Still On Track [View article]
    Counter...

    The track is $100 million in gross sales. It is highlighted in the charts above. Yes, the sales are still on track to meet or slightly exceed guidance.
    Sep 12 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Shift [View article]
    kidmet....

    The PPS is really not material. It is the market cap. There will be a certain drag or lift effect on the sector which will keep these equities tied together to a certain extent, but that will ease off in the next 12 to 24 months
    Sep 12 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Shift [View article]
    MN....

    The MNF ads that have aired thus far have been regional. That still gets good coverage, but is not national coverage. The charts above include both regional and national. A large percentage of the prime time spots are regional in nature
    Sep 12 01:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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