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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena And Shareholder Activism [View instapost]

    I have had some interesting communications about this subject, many of which simply attempt to attack me for my thoughts. I will adress some of the more common statements and/or questions.

    1. This piece was published as an Instablog by my choice. Instablogs do not generate a penny of income for me. 1,000,000 people could rread this instablog and I will not get a single penny of compensation from it. If your assertion is that I "wrote this for clicks and money", then your assertion is DEAD WRONG.

    2. I write only under my real name, Spencer Osborne. I have not used a pen name in years. When I did, that name was Tyler Savery. When I transitioned from a pen name to my real name years ago, I did it very publicly and made no secret of it.

    3. I do not post on any message boards. If I were to post somewhere, I do so under my own name. Anyone asserting that I post on a message board is lying. It is really that simple.

    4. I do not write at the request or behest of any person or entity.

    Pretty simple stuff, but there are some real loony people out there that make all kinds of wild assumptions and statements.
    Oct 8, 2015. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Icahn Affirms Offer To Buy Vivus Debt - Will Enough Bondholders Accept? [View article]

    You seem awfully concerned about my holdings. Whatever Vivus, Arena, and Orexigen do will not change my lifestyle at all. I have a very modest investment in Arena and a very, very, very, modest investment in Orexigen.
    Oct 8, 2015. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Shareholder Activism [View instapost]

    I simply saw a good chance of it happening because I have been following the markets for quite some time.
    Oct 8, 2015. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Shareholder Activism [View instapost]

    Saying that the drug is safe is a matter of opinion. There are some that would argue that point with you. One only needs to look at the FDA adverse events data to see that.

    The FDA approve unsafe things all if the time. Often it is simp,y a measure of risk vs reward. The FDA said okay, but Europevdid not. Typically Europe s more stringent in safety.

    The reason I brought up consumer reports here was not because of what they said. It was an example of how retail shareholders, thinking they are defending the company, actually make things much worse. It happens quite a bit.
    Oct 8, 2015. 08:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Shareholder Activism [View instapost]

    I had no way to know that some firm was going to come out with that. I have stated in several places that I see lawsuits because of this.
    Oct 8, 2015. 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    The 2013 version had the same number of supporters and ultimately stalled at that point

    If you take some time to really discuss this with your legislator in a frank manner, that person will essentially tell you that this type of bill is a non-starter. It is essentially designed to be a nonstarter. The fact that implementation comes 2 years after passage tells the story.

    If you call your legislator and act as though you want it to pass you will get a bunch of feel good speak.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    There is nothing wrong with hope properly placed.

    We could hope that the pope will walk on water, but it ain't gonna happen, therefore, misplaced hope only serves to bring about disappointment.

    I have give the odds of this bill passing.

    Your hope is that it will pass. The odds of that are about 3%.
    Oct 7, 2015. 09:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    You continue to bet on hope on this.

    What are you excited about? It takes 218 votes to pass Congress. Meanwhile, the govtracks prognosis of passage has gone down from 4% to 3%.
    Oct 7, 2015. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena-Belviq Sales Dip Closer To Qsymia Than Is Comfortable [View article]

    Please. Time is a commodity, and I really feel that it is being severely wasted on this discussion.

    1. I know the prices a pharmacy will quote. I also am well aware of what insurance covers, and the DISCOUNT CARD that brings the prices in line. Your insistence on looking at the "retail number" is foolish. Please deal in REALITY. I have given you the REAL numbers.

    2. Where the rubber hits the road is what is actually being paid. You need to apply discounts and insurance.

    3. I do not drink the company Kool Aide. I am HIGHLY CRITICAL of these companies. I have never been invested in Vivus because I understand that consumers are not willing to do what is needed to lose the weight they need to lose. It is not a function of cost

    4. The time release component allows the use of the drug for a long period of time. In contrast, the phentermine label says STOP after 3 months

    Your accusation of price gouging is BOGUS. These companies are not setting prices at gouging numbers. They are not even able to get back the hundreds of millions they invested to get the clinical studies done.

    Please, stop and think of what price gouging is. I suspect that you do not even know the definition:

    "Price gouging is a pejorative term referring to when a seller spikes the prices of goods, services or commodities to a level much higher than is considered reasonable or fair, and is considered exploitative, potentially to an unethical extent"

    These companies spent SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS tyo get to a point of FDA approval. They will spend $200 to $300 million more on post approval requirements. Let's keep it simple and call the cost $750 million to $1 Billion.

    They are getting between $50 and $100 per month for scripts.

    Isd it reasonable that a price point be sat that allows a company to recoup its investment? Yes.

    At a $100 price point it will take 7,500,000 scripts to recoup that money, and we are not even talking about any prifit. It took Vivus 3 years to get to 1,000,000 scripts. Do you think that asking a company that put $750 million into studies to wait 21 years to recoup its money is reasonable?

    Please. Stop the nonsense.

    Oct 7, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena-Belviq Sales Dip Closer To Qsymia Than Is Comfortable [View article]

    Look, you clearly want to try to make a point. You clearly want to make that point without all of the information. You are clearly off of your rocker with an assessment of price gouging

    Drugs have a retail price, a price with insurance, and discounts.

    These drugs can be had by many for about $75 with discounts, insurance, etc.

    Will some people pay $265. Perhaps. They may not want to take the trouble to go on line and get the discount card. The average cost per script last quarter was about $96. About 37% of that money came from insurance. That means consumers paid about $59 per script on average.

    Those are the numbers. They are filed with the government each quarter.

    Here is what happened.

    You ran down a path based on very little information and your own bad assumptions. You did not look for any data and instead wanted to lynch a company for gouging because it is a news headline.

    I demonstrated to you that the combo, which happens to have a time release component that you do not get with the generic of both scripts separately, had substantial pre-approval costs for trials and substantial post approval trial costs. I have now demonstrated to you that the average cost to consumers is nowhere near what you are putting forth and is actually much closer to what I outlined.

    I have followed these companies and these drugs for years now. I crunch the numbers all the time. You seem to have walked into the room, fresh off of seeing a Hillary Clinton ad, and spewed forth a bunch of statements based on piss poor research.

    Now, you could say, "wow....I was not aware of these things, thanks for setting the record straight".....OR....You could have some more Kool-Aide. Choice is yours.

    My apologies if I sound terse, but sometimes doing basic homework for others is a tiring task.
    Oct 7, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena-Belviq Sales Dip Closer To Qsymia Than Is Comfortable [View article]

    Several hundred million in clinical trials to get to approval. A few hundred million more in post approval commitments.

    Price is about $50 to $100 per month.

    The issue is not price poin. It is that consumers are not willing to lose weight over time. They want instant.

    Phen lane is $15 to $25. He same for toprimate.

    You sYing that price gouging is happening on qsymia is utter BS. Sorry to be so blunt, but you are miles off of the reservation.
    Oct 7, 2015. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    Not sure who you are asking.

    My two cents.

    Company needs to maintain a cash balance of $100 million or it will get a going concern notice from auditors. That means that BK is no imminent, but a need for cash will present itself in the next 9 months or so.

    That cash can come via debt, dilution, partnership, a sale and leaseback of Swiss facilities, an early partnership, or the need can be delayed by some stringent cost cutting.
    Oct 6, 2015. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena-Belviq Sales Dip Closer To Qsymia Than Is Comfortable [View article]

    Interesting comment.

    Have you considered the extensive study that went into the combo? The company took a big risk in expense to combine two products and demonstrate that they work safely. These products are not terribly expensive.

    Doctors can certainly script separately. In doing. Do they may discourage future development and study.

    Qsymia has been on the market for three years and profits are nowhere in sight compared to the expense to get it approved. Vivus has lost a butt load of money in this.n to say gouging us happening with this is a far stretch in my opinion.

    Combing existing products may not seem new or novel. If you really feel that way, might I suggest you never, ever, never use a camera on your cell phone. Instead buy a camera and a simple cell phone. It is a lot cheaper. Those cell phone companies that combine cameras and phones are gouging you.

    I am being a bit sarcastic, but you see the point.
    Oct 6, 2015. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Starting End Of Year Weakness- What Is The Impact For Investors? [View article]

    Thank you for the kind words. It will be a tough near term unless they develop some news on an EU partner.
    Oct 6, 2015. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    This is why i stated that silence past the end of October could be troublesome
    Oct 6, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment