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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]
    Arena watch.....

    Am I being to hopeful in thinking that you might bring some original and intelligent thought to the table?

    Sep 3, 2015. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]
    Arena watch.....

    Run along then.

    Are you coward yossi?
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]
    Arena watch.....

    Little birdie just told me you are either the cowardly yossi, or you are poaching your information from the cowardly yossi.

    If you are the cowardly yossi, why not step up and admit it. If you are not the cowardly yossi, you are stealing from him and pawning off his thoughts as your own.

    The excitement in Arena world never ends.
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]
    Arena watch....

    "Spencer failed to mention that while in animal models you need similar dosages of 334 and 1063 to get similar results, ARNA is able to check DOUBLE dose of 334 in Phase II"

    Arena has already checked dosages and that can continue in phase 2. The mg's may not matter. What matters is whether the drug works, and how well. Think of it like a shot of vodka, a glass of wine, and a beer will all bring the same level of BAC. Simply stated, does a .5 mg dose of the receptos product do the same as a 1 mg dose of 334. Jumping to your conclusion could be folley. We simply do not know yet.

    "Spencer failed to mention that APD334 seems better and safer than Ozanimod (RPC1063)!"

    We do not know this yet. We will know more after phase 2

    "APD334 affects S1P1 but not S1P3 (so no Bradycardia), Ozanimod (RPC1063) is about the same but also has higher affinity to S1P5 which also reduce Lymphocyte count but NOT the sub-group we want to reduce!"

    who exactlyt is "we"

    half life......are you suggesting that 334 will be a pill you tke in the moning on monday and then in the evening on Tuesday, then in the morning on thursday (tongue in cheek)? half life can be material, but may well not be as material as you believe

    "Spencer didn't understand that CELG did NOT have all the data while deciding to buy RCPT since ARNA did NOT have detailed results of Phase Ib at that time!"

    hmmmmm....weren't results announced in January? Didn't Receptos deal get announced in August? Do you really think that Arena would not have courted Celgene? Really?

    So between January and August you think that Celgene would have not taken the step to look at 334? You think that the 334 data simply was not available to Arena to show Celgene? Is this really what you think? And now somehow ALL OF THE ATTRIBUTES YOU SAY 334 BEATS RECEPTOS WITH have all come to light in the last 3 weeks?

    Come on dude. Find a stronger position than that.....because your position is WEAK!
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    Arena only foots 10% of the CVOT bill.

    Off label has ALWAYS been able to happen. It is not driving the use.

    You hanging your hopes on these third party clinical trials is about the same as a person hanging hopes on the useless Treat and Reduce Obesity Act of 2015.

    Before you jump into attack mode.....

    The bill is useless because it does nothing to address the core issues of obesity.

    The bill is useless because if passed, would only impact a small segment of the population, which will not really correct the problem.

    The bill is useless because if passed it would not go into effect for 2 years.

    The bill is useless because it was not drafted as a real bill, but rather "feel-good" legislation that makes constituents think that their senator or representative is doing something.

    The bill is useless because it has no real teeth or bite.

    Sector investors supporting this bill because they think it will sell pills are fooling themselves.

    The odds of passage stand at about 4%, and even then, it is not a bill a party will dare touch prior to the election because of the potential cost implications to Social security.
    Sep 3, 2015. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    You need to step into a world that the rest of us call reality. You have been living in a fantasy world for far to long.

    In your heart of hearts do you think that any of the mayo or duke studies are enough to bring about label change it add an indication?

    Be honest for once. Set aside your emotional attachment for once.

    What do pharma companies do in working with these university type studies? Typically they supply the drug.

    Sharon....think more deeply.....think more critically....think with your head and not your heart.
    Sep 3, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    I am well aware of the dynamics.

    You want people to believe that a new indication is on its way because third parties are doing studies.

    Reality is that additional indications for belviq are on a holding pattern because arena and Eisai have paused the programs that they are responsible for.

    Let me put this simply.

    the studies you are referring to are hit tied to adding an indication for belviq. That is reality.

    You can try to shift the discussion all you want, but the reality still exists.

    Let's review your incorrect thesis.

    "There is no reason arena and Eisai should spend limited resources on smoking cessation because the government is doing it for them"

    What I pointed out to you is that these studies will do nothing to advance a new indication on the label for belviq.

    What I pointed out U.S. Reality.

    Mayo, the government or anyone can do any study they want, but that does not bring about a new indication being added. Those trials, designs, and studies need to be done by Arena and Eisai.

    Is there anything wrong with such studies? No. Is there anything wrong with a person making the insinuation that these will advance a lable change? Yes
    Sep 3, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    Thank you for having a reasonable approach to things.

    Kudos to you for having a level of sanity that seems rare with regard to the anti obesity medication stocks
    Sep 3, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    Time frame is interesting, and it is easy to lose track of time. The last time arena was below $2 was 3.5 years ago. I do not think we see $5 by the end of this year
    Sep 3, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    While I would hope that Sharon would be up front and real, it is rather apparent she is not.

    One mayo clinic study is not even open for recruitment yet and is a 5 year study with an end date in 2020. In her opinion this could "lead to" a phase 3 study. When exactly will that happen Sharon?

    Another study (with 20 people) is completed and used belviq not for smoking cessation, but to control weight gain after another drug was used

    These are the realities. Any person can go to the clinical trials website and look at trial design, etc.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    You are being obtuse. That's fine. Allow me to clarify for readers.

    Arena and Eisai need to do their own phase 3 trials to bring about a label change. Outside party studies do not allow label modifications to happen.

    Sharon, it appears, would rather investors believe that smoking cessation as an indication is progressing. At this stage it is not.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    811 is further away than Sharon let's on. I suspect she knows this, but wants to paint a pretty picture.

    Big time has a serious issue with his numbers. I suspect he knows this, but wants to offer up a bullish agenda.

    Read my response on cash and cash burn. I use REAL numbers and REALISTIC assumptions. Arena will get an ongoing concern notice if their cash goes below $100 million. That is reality. They want to always have at least $100 million in the bank. From an investors standpoint you need to sort of pretend it does not exist.

    Arena itself has guided to between $55 and $65 million in research expenses over the next 6 months. Now add on overhead and admin costs. Account for some modest belviq revenue and you will quickly see the reality. This company will need cash in the next 12 months.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    Some of these people are simply so in love with the stock that they do not see the Forrest through the trees.

    Unless a person waves Pom-poms these people hate.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]
    Big time.....

    I think you need to crunch some numbers

    Arena started the year with $163 million.

    In January, with $163 million in cash, the company diluted and raised $100 million.

    Thus put cash at $263 million.

    At the end of March the cash was at $241million. That is a burn of $22 million in q1.

    At the end of q2 cash was $216 million. That is a burn of $25 million in q2.

    The company has indicated that it will spend $110 million on research this year. Through q2 they have spent $46 million. This implies that $64 million will be spent in q3 and q4.

    Now let's be real.

    If the company diluted when it was down to $163 million in cash, when do you think another need for cash will arise?

    If they burn $50 million in the next two quarters, they will finish 2015 with $166 million. If they do nothing and go through q1 of 2016 and burn another $25 million, the cash will be at $141 million. If they do nothing, and go through q2 of 2016, the cash will be at $116 million by June of next year.

    Last time they raised cash at $163 million and the pipeline was less mature.

    They will need cash in the next 12 months. In a perfect world they borrow and take on some debt rather than dilute.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - A Deeper Look At APD-334 [View article]

    Perhaps you are naive to how things work.

    Data read outs of a trial can not be tabulated until the last patient in the trial completes. Typically it takes a few months to tabulate the data, verify the data, review everything and publish it.

    Thus, if the last patient were to enroll in the 22 week trial today, they would not complete until Februaray of 2016. Ad do here months to process all data, and you get to May of 2016 at the earliest. That assumes that the last patient enrolled today.

    The trial is STILL RECRUITING.

    Your assumption that a readout on 811 will hold off the need for cash because the results will be out early enough is a pretty risky assumption to make.

    Realistically, we do not get a readout until q3 of next year, and perhaps it will be late in Q3.

    The last time I spoke of a cash need the over passionate arena retail investors said I was full of hot air. Not only did the dilution happen, but it happened in the window I projected.

    The difference between me and you is that I look at things realistically and you look at things the way you want them to be.
    Sep 3, 2015. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment