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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Orexigen Launches Contrave - Watch For Traction [View article]
    ruf....

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Garnering EU approval would be a big boost. Not getting it will mean that this equity will need to trudge along in the US market and hope that iot can blaze a bigger trial than what Qsymia and Belviq did.

    Thanks for the link again (i had already posted it in my comment above)...Orex investors need to be aware of tomorrows activities.
    Oct 20 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Launches Contrave - Watch For Traction [View article]
    vito....

    2 pills in the morning and 2 pills in the evening.

    The fatty meal aspect is likely language that is simply designed to be cautious. The components of Contrave have been around for quite some time and are well understood. I would venture to say that people can eat a burger while on Contrave.
    Oct 20 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Launches Contrave - Watch For Traction [View article]
    Readers....

    Contrave is scheduled for possible oral explanation tomorrow morning at 9:00 AM

    http://bit.ly/1wry20E

    Contave is on the CHMP agenda

    Update : CHMP can ask for an oral explanation or the applicant can request to present.

    http://bit.ly/1wryUSM
    Oct 20 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    dax...

    It is a process where you need to sign up. If they rely on a doctor to tell the patient about all of this, then it may not get good traction.

    The best way to do it is to have simple literature with the sample that tells a consumer what to do, that they get a free wireless scale, etc.

    I am not sure yet whether completecare has a direct relationship with IMS, but they do track mail order scripts, so I would assume the answer is yes.
    Oct 20 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    dax....

    direct save puts the price at about $55 per month then $45 starting in month 3 if the patient has insurance. It puts the price at $70 and then $60 if they have no insurance.

    This makes it a lot cheaper than what Belviq and Qsymia are offering, though it is a mail order system to get these prices. It will be interesting to see how well adopted this strategy is.
    Oct 20 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    ariniac....

    "Cover now Spence and accept ur mistake!"

    Please refer to my disclosures above. I have no position in Arena at this time.

    In case you can not comprehend what that means, I will take the time to spell that out for you.

    The disclosures are there to outline any and all financial interests in a company being written about. That would include stock, options, long interest, short interest, or if I was being paid by Arena or any other party (other than Seeking Alpha) to write an article.

    As you can see from my disclosures, I have no stake in this equity in any form.

    Now, you can believe in little black helicopters involved in every conspiracy theory, but that does not mean that they exist.

    I have never had a short interest of any nature in this equity. In fact, I can not recall the last time I had a short interest in any equity over the past few years.

    My suggestion to you is that you set aside your belief of something that is simply not there and concentrate on better understanding investments.

    Cheers
    Oct 20 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    Dax...

    With the concept of $55 for insured ($45month 3 and beyond) and $70 for uninsured ($60 for month 3 and beyond) the price point is good. The problem is getting consumers to be aware. This can be solved by getting doctors on board and with good literature accompanying the samples. I have not seen that yet.

    It is not in the sweet spot that brings widespread adoption, but the loyalty program is very interesting.
    Oct 20 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    Jakes....

    The issue is a big issue and will not cure itself quickly. There is only so much that can be done to help the poor. We already have the highest number of people ever on food stamps. We, as a nation, need to get control of the waste. We have now shifted to every kid getting free school lunch and tied federal dollars to whether or not the policies of the current administrations programs are used.

    This administration is making me people poor. It is ths administration that has thrown million under the bus. We want the government to feed them, house them, give dollars to live on, pay for the dentist, pay for the doctor, and now pay for drugs at an inprecidended level. There is simply not enough dollars because thse that used to help the most, the middle class, are now being downgraded to poor. The system is fraught with abuse, and instead of fixing things, we are making the class of people that need assistance even bigger.

    From an investment side, it would be great to see belviq covered in the very narrow world of an investment in Arena. However, investors should be prepared to gain a small reward on an investment in exchange for being more poor overall.

    My opinion on making belviq more affordable is to see a 10mg solution once per day. It cuts the price in half, and for many is what is being done anyway.

    I may not be invested in ARNA at the moment, but am watching for a re-entry point after November 10. I am basing my decision on price at the time, and projected growth. If the medi stuff happens, it will certainly help, but the overall solution is much bigger
    Oct 20 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    Jakes....

    We need to push to abolish the social agenda of the ACA and obama policies. pushing for the government to pay is short sighted in my opinion. We need to get the government out of everyone's business.

    If there was any semblance of a middle class, getting belviq into the hands of the poor would not be SCH wn issue. The problem is that do msny that used to be middle class are now poor.
    Oct 19 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    jakes.

    Yes....these are a big factor....but even getting these will not change the overall economy in a way that builds any type of confidence.

    ACA will first cripple private insurance before then moving on to further destroy the economy further by having the government cover. The goal of this socialist agenda is to devastate the middle class and make everyone poor. The best thing that can happen is seeing the democrats lose control of both the house and senate. The Obama agenda MUST be handcuffed because this country can not afford two more years of this socialist agenda running unchecked.

    This country used to rely on small business to drive the engine of the middle class. The socialists we currently have in power have destroyed small business. We now have the fewest number of jobs since 1978 under Carter. Obama and his agenda have been killing this economy in more ways than many imagine. He is, simply stated, the worst president in my lifetime....an honor that I always thought Carter would hold.
    Oct 19 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    Seems we have the usual symphony vs. IMS debate happening once again.

    Now....think a minute.

    Arena knows EXACTLY how many bottles it ships to Eisai. This number will never be adjusted, because it is a known number.

    It is IMPOSSIBLE to sell more bottles than what have been shipped from arena to Eisai.

    This, any number of script sales reported by an agency MUST be no greater than the bottles shipped.

    So how do we explain a reporting agency having a script count higher than what is possible?

    1. A bad assumption mDe in the formula used to estimate the non-reporting pharmacies (Wal mart)

    2. Counting the 15 day free trial as a script (turns 1 bottle into two scripts)

    Now, mr. stevens says that the revenue per script is not less if you use symphony. This is again not possible. Last quarter was $3.9 million in revenue. If you divide that by a higher number (symphony), the revenue per bottle is lower.

    Quarter after quarter the IMS number jive with what Eisai and arena present.

    End of discussion.
    Oct 18 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    Mr....

    I am giving the impression that it is sll ARNA? Really? Really?i

    Look at the charts dude. If you are confused by them, then you are alone on an island.
    Oct 18 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    Mr....

    I see what you are trying to do, but confusing the matter does not really accomplish much.

    The fact that arena gets 31.5 % of net sales is the point you are trying to make. Why not just make that point rather than make it a puzzle that confuses readers?
    Oct 17 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    Arn.....

    I sold half of my stake at $10.50.

    Now, is it smart to sit on a paper loss an gain no advantage, or to take advantage of that and then get back in at about the same price.

    Wash sake rules are 30 days. I wrote a very positive piece on smoking cessation early this week. This piece simply covers the data.

    I am not in a loss position because I sold half at $10.50. There is nothing to "lessen"
    Oct 17 07:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Dip: What To Watch For Ahead [View article]
    vito...

    There are more wackos invested in Arena than pretty much any other equity out there it seems.

    I tend to respond to pretty much every comment or a large amount of them.

    People that want more information and a civil place can see my work on my website.

    I will always defend myself against those that make accusations that equate to felonies.
    Oct 17 04:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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