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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Joseph....

    If you are expecting 5% growth, then sales will be at $225 million. This, that is slightly above your high end $200 million with a 10% adjustment up to get to $220 million

    Your low end is $175 million. A 10% adjustment down is $158 million.

    You have given yourself a range of $158 million to $220 million. You certainly built in plenty of cushion....$62 million worth.

    Now he fully you can see that 5% growth us above your expectations. This is why it is always worth while to model expectations.

    Now if we can clarify a few things. You stated that you expect television ads to increase sales 9x faster. Do your projections of $158 million to $220 million include this 9x factor? Do you understand what the weekly script number would need to be to get to the high end of your expectation? What do you think the street is expecting?
    Mar 29, 2014. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Reaper....

    The company put out info on that this week. Adding a new indication to the label will be a positive
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Hh....

    Thank you for the comment. The growth is going to take time. The sooner that the street and all investors understand reasonable expectations, the better.

    The situation with Qsymia is something that arena and orexigen investors should understand and grasp. With a modest marketing and sales force, Qsymia peaked at about 11k scripts per week. The products are all about equal...some are safer, some are more effective. The difference may be getting awareness up. Ads and more reps can help that.

    Yes, ads are to bring consumers to the product. In particular with pharma. Pharma ads are totally geared toward consumers and getting consumers to identify with a particular brand.
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Jos.

    I have my sources...it will be 186 Eisai reps and 414 through quintiles. I stated that they would be from quintiles in the article. My source is better than quintiles.

    If you do not want to substantiate your "5% growth for quite some time" statement, that is fine. I know that it is hard to say a percentage on one hand but not have the sales number jive on the other. 5% week
    Y growth this year adds up to $225 million. You say you expect 5%,but that you do not expect $225 million. Not very logical, but them again, a lot of people shift their targets to reflect their desires rather than apply logic
    Mar 29, 2014. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Joseph....

    There is no music playing, so why do you dance.

    What are your 2014 gross sales expectations?

    Come on, you are a lawyer. I think you understand the direct question/direct answer concept.
    Mar 29, 2014. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Joseph.....

    It is very interesting that you say that the market coming to the product is a silly comment. Do you understand what advertising is about? Pharma ads are typically designed to get the market to come to the product. Have you heard, "ask your doctor about xyz" or "ask your doctor if xyz is right for you"

    People "need" to deal with obesity, but that does not mean they "need" Belviq, Qsymia, Contrave, or phentermine. Eating right and getting 30 minutes of exercise can go a long way to treating many people.

    It looks like your are saying that you are expecting gross sales to be at least $225 million this year. You do not come out and say it, but that is what the math works out to. We are now 3 months in with sales at about $22 million. Thus, it would appear that you are expecting $200 million in sales in the next 9 months at a minimum. Like I said before, you will likely be very, very disappointed. The current pace has them missing your expectations by about $75 million. That is in the neighborhood of 375,000 scripts. Think about that.

    By the way, I am not bring a Monday-morning quarterback. I put my expectations out well in advance in a crystal clear manner...not "I expect 5% growth for a long time"

    What are your 2014 gross sales expectations?
    Mar 29, 2014. 12:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Joseph...

    The market for Budweiser is massive as well. Bigger than the obesity market. that does not mean that the market comes to the product.

    I represented the obesity market as 100 million. It is the size and scope of the market that eisai has stated time and time again.

    The potential market for phentermine is the same as for Qsymia or Belviq. That drug gets about 130k weekly scripts and has been at that level for quite some time. Additionally it is much much cheaper than B or Q.

    How long do you anticipate 5% week over week growth? What level makes you happy? If you are seeking 5% weekly growth for the rest of the year, you will likely be very, very disappointed.
    Mar 28, 2014. 09:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    gazoo...

    He asked if it had been previously published. I answered his question. Pretty simple
    Mar 28, 2014. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Brian...

    It is an issue of the willingness of people to lose weight. There are many solutions for weight loss that are not being utilized today. These prescription products in and of themselves are just a part of a solution.

    Make Belviq a $50 out of pocket drug and the uptake would improve in dramatic fashion.

    The time may come where these drugs are more widely used, but then again, progress will happen and other products may be on the market as well. The window here is open, but they gotta ramp it up to take and control the market.
    Mar 28, 2014. 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Brian...

    Eisai puts the target market at 100 million. Let's not forget that many are on SSRIs and how the label is worded. Potential market is big...getting that market is another story.
    Mar 28, 2014. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    jake....

    Readers of my site saw it yesterday.
    Mar 28, 2014. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Tgallo...

    Not to belittle your experience. Congratulations again by the way. You likely have a different motivator than your friends. You are invested. Willpower of the wallet can impact how people perceive and use a product. You have the additional motivation of having success tied to you financially. That is not to say that Belviq does not work, it is simply to say that part of your motivation to see Belviq work is tied to your finances perhapse. The average person is not invested, and does not have that motivation.

    How many people do you see on this drug that are also invested and say that it does not work?

    Example...if you are invested in TJX, you may shop there instead of another store because it benefits you. You may even tell people that you get great deals there. The chances of you doing that if not invested is much smaller.

    Try to look at this from the perspective of the average person.

    The numbers point to modest awareness, modest growth, modest refills, etc. by saying modest, I am not being negative. It is pacing along like something that simply takes time to build.

    Think about it. 80,000 healthcare professionals. 8,000 scripts per week. That is 0.1 script per professional per week. Yet there are some doctors that are invested that a count for 12 scripts per week.

    I understand your enthusiasm. I would recommend trying to understand the average joe
    Mar 28, 2014. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Brian...

    Potential market in the U.S. Is about 100 million people out of 300 million plus. That is not really at 50%.
    Mar 28, 2014. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Binary...

    The recent sales data has been impacted by a few things. Efficacy, generics, etc. the point however was looking at ad impacts. You will note that in that context I did not even bring up the sales dr off.
    Mar 28, 2014. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Yale....

    I have outlined ad impact with victoza and now Aricept. Aricept was an Eisai blockbuster, and often used by Arena management to outline the potential that Eisai brings to the table.

    The 9x that has been communicated to me several times over the past week is very selective and subjective at best. The real world does not increase 9x because pf ads.
    Mar 28, 2014. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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