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Spencer Osborne

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  • Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]

    Sirius XM can figure out its own take rate, but that does not mean anything. I am a huge satellite radiuo fan but also a big user of Slacker and now Aha as well.

    Sirius XM has no way to identify the take rate of other services, just as other services have no way to independently identify the take rate of Sirius XM
    Mar 14 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]

    It appears that 90210 and Blue Waters may indeed be one in the same. Very interesting for readers to know, and very careless and embarassing for 90210/BlueWaters
    Mar 14 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]

    I would have simply asked if the company is anticipating a lower take rate due to the reality of connected cars, and what the possible strategies will be to keep the take rate at current levels.
    Mar 14 10:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]

    Those that are subscribers to Sirius XM...Like you and me are probably very much the same. People are creatures of habbit. If you like Sirius XM, then that will likely be the only thing you use. In fact, there are probably only 6 stations that you listen to with regularity within the SiriusXM service.

    Just as you or I would say that the only thing we typically do is listen to Sirius XM, there are some that will stay faithful to their terrestrial statiions, and others that will say Pandora is the choice
    Mar 14 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]

    I realize you love to label me as a closet bear, but what about the above do you disagree with? Come on 90210....get some guts and do some actual dialogue
    Mar 14 09:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]

    I use data all of the time. I happen to have an unlimited plan, but it is a very rare occasion (twice in the last three years) that I have gone over 2GB (the most common data plan limit for smartphone users).

    I realize that satellite radio fans LOVE to tout the data plan costs, but every ounce of data out there just points to data costs associated with music streaming simply not being an issue.

    Think about it.....67 million people use Pandora each month. If the data costs were so overwhelming for these people then you would see ranting and raving about it everywhere. You do not.

    Simply stated, the data plan cost argument posed by some satellite radio fans is all hogwash. It always has been.
    Mar 14 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]
    The interesting thing is this.

    1. Frear has no way to know what the "Take Rate" is on the use of Pandora or Aha in a connected car. There are several reasons for this, the first being that Frear has ZERO access to the data. His answer to the question should have been that he has no way to know the take rate of other services.

    2. How would it be possible for Sirius XM to know if a user with a Verizon phone is syncing up their phone to a Toyota Entune car audio system and streaming Pandora, Slacker, or Aha. For that matter he would not even know if such a user is streaming Sirius XM IP stuff in their car.

    3. The ONLY thing Sirius XM knows is if someone is streaming its own service and whether that streaming is happening on a PC or a mobile platform. By example, If I am streaming SiriusXM IP through my car they will know I am streaming, but not know if I am in my car or jogging in Central Park, or simply sitting in my living room listening over the phone.

    4. There can be conclusions drawn that the take rate on Sirius XM is better than the take rate on Pandora One (the premium Pandora) because Pandora does supply subscriber information for Pandora One. But then again, the conclusion would simply be an assumption.

    5. The question asked by the analyst was not really a good one in that take rate is a subscription based metric and many offerings in the car do not offer subscriptions as a core business model.

    6. Think about it. What is the take rate on AM and FM? Does that even make sense to ask? Is it 100% because all of the cars have it? If you turn on the FM radio once are you part of a "take rate"?
    Mar 14 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]

    "With the ability to stream Internet audio, which is often free, think twice before paying for a satellite-radio receiver and subscription, unless there's specific Sirius XM content you want and/or you live where data reception is spotty. HD radio programming is free but can suffer from annoying echoes and stutters in reception." Ummm, got contradictions???

    Frankie....There is no contradiction here. HD radio is not IP radio. It is a terrestrial product delivered over the air in a digital format. They say if you want specific content or get spotty cell reception that Sirius XM may be a good choice.

    The data plan costs are not as material as some would like to believe. The average Pandora listener tunes in for 21 hours a month. That will not hit data limits.

    Loading apps is easy and once complete the operation of a Pandora is the same as the use for Sirius XM or AM/FM, etc.
    Mar 14 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Shifts To More Bullish Stance [View article]

    I made the distinction because I would not really call all of the side effects something safe, nor would most people.

    Construction work is considered dangerous, but relative to crab fishing in the bearing sea it is safe.
    Mar 13 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Shifts To More Bullish Stance [View article]

    Why do I use that? Because I weigh 172 pounds, and at that weight, would qualify for use of the drug if I have a comrbid condition. I do not look overweight, but ideally should be at about 160 to 165. The problem is that many retail investors are using people like me in their assessment of the market.

    The average american man weighs about 190 pounds. The average woman weighs about 164 pounds

    But a 5'-7" man weighing 175 pounds is in the overweight category and with a comorbid condition, qualifies for the drug. Take a 5'-7" man and have him weigh 185 pounds and he is obese and qualifies without a comorbid condition.

    I agree losing 5% of body weight has great health advantages.
    Mar 13 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Shifts To More Bullish Stance [View article]

    Perhaps 20 pounds is a reasonable cut off.

    If i were a doctor and someone was asking about these pills I would test their determination by asking them to do the diet and exercise for a month to see the results. They should be able to drop at least 5 of the 20 with just that, and perhaps that would give them the confidence to go it without a pill that carries side effects.

    However, I fully realize that many doctors will not do that. As an investor it is what I am relying on to deliver profits. I am investing on a drug with great potential that will be requested to patients that do not rely need it by doctors who do not want to be bothered by the debate with a patient.
    Mar 13 07:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Shifts To More Bullish Stance [View article]

    It was used as an extreme example designed for those that are so blinded by their love affair with one equity or the other that they lose any chance of being rational.

    It was not intended to say in a literal way that these drugs will make one lose appendages or one of the scenes.

    It was designed to be shocking. One guy here feels that the side effect of Belviq is simply a headache. It goes well beyond that. Another group think that women of child bearing age can not take Qsymia even if they have no interest in starting a family and use contraception. These people are thinking like the herds on message boards instead of for themselves.

    Think about it Gazzoo...I am using you because I know you think above this fray:

    Gazoo - Doc, I want to lose 15 pounds but am not able to get the weight off. I heard about a pill that may help.

    Dr. Spencer - Well Gazoo...You are overweight and borderline obese according to the charts. Have you been exercising? Tell me about your eating habbits.

    Gazoo - I have a gym membership, but never have the time to get there. I have a few videos, but they are more advanced than I want. I do walk a lot at work. I do not really have time to cook, or make my lunches so I order take-out a lot and grab a subway sandwich for lunch. Sometimes I eat a salad.

    Dr. Spencer - Well, these drugs require you to maintain a proper diet and exercise while taking the pill. You can probably expect to lose 7% of your body weight in 3 months. Let's see, you weigh 175 pounds, so you will lose about 12 pounds in 12 weeks. You should consider walking to work a few times a week, cutting down on eating out, and not using dressing on your salads. Here is some information about eating and exercising right.

    Gazoo - You mean I will only lose 12 pounds in three months?

    Dr. Spencer - That is about average. You could lose more. Remember, you also need to eat right and exercise.

    Gazoo - What does do the pills cost? What do they do?

    Dr. Spencer - The pills will likely cost you about $100 to $150 per month out of pocket. You could join a gym for much less by the way. They help overweight people control their appetite and assist in working with components of the body so that you can better burn fat.

    Gazoo - Are there any side effects? Is it safe?

    Dr. Spencer - Well...Nausea, Diarrhea, Constipation, Dry mouth, Vomiting, Fatigue, Upper respiratory tract infection, Nasopharyngitis, Urinary tract infection, Back pain, Musculoskeletal, Headache, Dizziness, Cough, Oropharyngeal pain, Sinus congestion, Rash, Toothache, Peripheral edema, Seasonal allergy, Gastroenteritis, Hypoglycemia, Worsening of diabetes mellitus, Decreased appetite, Muscle spasms, Anxiety, Insomnia, Stress, Depression, and Hypertension were all elevated in the test group vs. the placebo group during trials, but it is FDA approved, so therefore it is safe.

    Gazoo - So I have to pay $150 per month, exercise, diet, and may be more stressed, depressed, get toothaches, nausea, bathroom issues and everything else headaches to lose 12 pounds? And you call that safe?

    Dr. Osborne - I would suggest using these diet guidelines here and spending $100 per month on the gym. Use the other $50 to treat yourself to a grilled chicken subway sandwich twice a week each month and drink water instead of the soda. The FDA has approved it. In your case I do not think any of these pills are appropriate. If you were 225 pounds we would weigh those side effects against the issue of a much more elevated weight and perhaps you would then be appropriate.

    Gazoo - Wow!

    For readers.....

    There is little doubt that the potential market is substantial. There is also little doubt that there will be plenty of irresponsible doctors out there that would put Gazoo on one of these drugs without batting an eye. However, if you really break down the market to those that truly have a need for one of these drugs, it is not as big as we like to think. As an investor ask yourself this. Would you take one of these drugs to lose 10 pounds? 15 pounds? 20 pounds?
    Mar 12 10:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Shifts To More Bullish Stance [View article]

    I understand you are frustrated. I would be to if I attempted to call someone out only to be shot down quickly.

    I was giving an example of a group of people that could easily short the equity with minimal risk. That is just one example and represents about 7% of the short position (if that strategy has been employed) As I stated there are many strategic trades such as saddles that could be employed regarding this or any equity.

    The number of "trapped" people is likely far less than most believe.

    Try not to be so instantly reactive and think a bit before posting.
    Mar 12 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Shifts To More Bullish Stance [View article]

    None of the drugs have desirable side effects. The context of what I stated, and you chose to leave out is :"Safety is a relative term."

    My emotions are clear. I am not in the camp that says "Belviq is and always will be the best and everything else will kill you"

    Each drug has its own set of positives and negatives.

    Safety is indeed a relative term. The safe treatment is proper diet and proper exercise. All of these drugs do not appear safe relative to proper diet and exercise.
    Mar 12 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Shifts To More Bullish Stance [View article]
    Safety is a relative term. Would you like to lose a hand or a foot? Would you rather be blind or deaf?
    Mar 12 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment