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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    Feelin....

    If you look at the chart in the article you can see the delta. There was a bigger gap in weeks 8 and 9.
    Oct 11, 2013. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals - Belviq Ad Gets More Creative [View article]
    Zoe....

    There is no limit, though if you no longer have indications it would make sense to stop
    Oct 11, 2013. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals - Belviq Ad Gets More Creative [View article]
    Max...

    There always has been, and always will be "manipulation". I put the words in quotes because what many call manipulation is not actually anything other than supply and demand.

    A gang mentality on the upside or downside is not necessarily manipulation.

    In my opinion this equity has not lost and not won. We have a non-profitable company with a billion dollar market cap. It can be debated whether the cap should be half a billion or $1.5 billion. Both sides in the argument would have strong cases
    Oct 11, 2013. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals - Belviq Ad Gets More Creative [View article]
    Vito...

    In many instances doctors are only exposed to Eisai, and do not even really get exposed to the much smaller arena. Eisai has decent horsepower, though it is at the bottom end of the top 25 big pharma companies.

    Big issues are doctors, cost, and insurance. These will take time to come into play.
    Oct 11, 2013. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    Joe...

    Congratulations on your progress. Keep it up.

    Not sure if this equity has bottomed out, but the behavior today could look like a bottom formed. There is a quarterly call coming up, do that has its own wrinkles
    Oct 11, 2013. 08:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    Larry,

    I have covered this in the past, but will speak to it again.

    Neither company gets all of the sales data. They must extrapolate to arrive at an estimate. In addition, if a person buys a two or three month script in a single transaction, it is counted as 1 instead of 2 or 3. In contrast, the 15 day free trials are counted as 1 instead of .5. Considering his, and observing the delta experienced with other drugs, I came to a conclusion that adjusting IMS up by 30% and symphony up by 20% will get me into the right neighborhood of actual sales.
    Oct 11, 2013. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    Vito....

    I thought that I had explained this to you in pretty good detail last week, thus I am quite surprised that you are asking this again.

    What I explained to you several times last week was that IMS and symphony would rather not have exacting numbers published on a weekly basis. The reason for this is that these companies spend a lot of money collecting the data, and they also sell the data.

    In working with these companies in a professional relationship, I respect their desires to protect their product.

    I also explained to you last week that you could get most of the information you are seeking by simply referencing the articles in this series. The grand totals are there, and some simple math gets you the answer. Done of the earlier articles also have exact numbers.

    There are also several places to obtain the numbers via a twitter search or google search. In fact, many articles in this series also have the numbers that you are seeking in the comments section.

    It is my hope, now that this has been explained to you again that you will understand that no matter how often you ask, I can not oblige you in the manner you desire.

    This stock has many active followers that have been tracking the sales figures since the beginning. The information you want is readily available. I am sorry that I can not supply you the answer
    Oct 11, 2013. 08:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    Feelin...

    Symphony and IMS apply their own data sets and derive their own formulas for deviations.
    Oct 11, 2013. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    A a....

    Several of those are off. You have a mix of IMS and symphony
    Oct 11, 2013. 04:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Lands Partner For ED Drug [View article]
    Jay bird....

    First week in August sales were 9331
    Then 10019
    Then 9982
    Then 9800
    Then 9789
    Then 10181
    Then 10819
    Then 10480
    Then 10762

    Sales have been pretty flat.

    Belviq is not beloved to me. They have had sales flat as well.

    The sector needs to improve a great deal.

    I am sorry if me considering the numbers above as essentially flat is something that you disagree with.
    Oct 11, 2013. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals - Belviq Ad Gets More Creative [View article]
    Salicin...
    I was may saying that these holidays will make or break the drug. Arriving at that conclusion is silly. Just pointing out that there will likely be 4 dip weeks in the remainder of the year, so an inflection point may well be early next year
    Oct 11, 2013. 07:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media Scores $500 Million Payday [View article]
    Blue....

    I still cover things on siriusbuzz and siriusbuzz premium. Dividends are possible.
    Oct 10, 2013. 05:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media Scores $500 Million Payday [View article]
    Sirius nation....

    In the short term it is a buy. 3 to 5 years is a bit of a stretch to think about. What will Liberty do? What will the penetration be on the connected car? If Sirius XM keeps pace with technology, they can stay on top
    Oct 10, 2013. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media Scores $500 Million Payday [View article]
    Hansa.....

    In theory it could be good for Sirius XM shareholders...very good
    Oct 10, 2013. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Force To Double? [View article]
    wis joe....

    Sales force to double in December

    Scripts over the last 4 weeks were down 13% (holiday), up 22% (week after holiday), plus 2% and plus 2%.

    Last weeks scripts were up 2% not 25%

    500K scripts in 41 weeks in not really on the table. 16 weeks in we are at 63,000. You are essentially expecting 437,000 scripts in the next 25 weeks. That would be an average of 17,500 per week in the next 25 weeks.

    There are reasons to be long, but the process is going to be slow to see appreciation.
    Oct 9, 2013. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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