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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Bud....

    Blockbuster = $1,billion in sales in 1 year
    May 27, 2014. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Stein....

    The issue with bel phen is not efficacy. The issue is what happens in reality.

    Investors get excited because they feel that Bel phen makes people lose more weight. Essentially both are appetite suppressants. This, the caloric intake is less because of the combo. That being said, the combo may really only be appropriate for severe cases.

    Let's say that Belviq curbs 200 calories itself, and phentermine curbs 200 calories, yet combined, the curb is 600 calories. If a proper diet is 1,500 calories, and a person is eating 2,000 calories without pills, then the combo would actually be taking a person below the standards for healthy eating. This is a very oversimplified example, but you see the point.

    Now, as separate pills, Belviq will sell a script, and phen will sell a script. Arena, and by extension arena investors, see now money from the phen half of the combo. It could work great, but the impact might be hard to really place a value on. Perhaps more Belviq will sell to a elect market, but is it going to be huge? For the combo to be huge, the vanity market needs to come into play. The problem here is that the scripts and doctors are so closely monitored that you would be harder pressed than in the phen fen days to see a huge vanity market.
    May 27, 2014. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Jakes....

    One unfortunate thing that I often see happen is that most retail investors do not ever get to see an analyst report. They get a bullet point and a price target. If they are long the stock and they like the price target, they run with it, not knowing the expectations.

    This is why I am staunch about people building a model and setting their expectations.
    May 27, 2014. 10:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Jakes....

    Better to understand what may happen ahead of time.
    May 27, 2014. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Stein....

    I think that Wei will need to adjust his model in a substantial way. Bel phen will not even be a 2014 story, though we may hear some results from studies.

    My biggest issue is how to monetize it.

    Insurance companies will cover one or the other, but not both. Unless they create a combo pill, it may not be the boost many longs hope for. Captain Morgans is a great spiced rum, but it dies not really help coke sell more soda in any meaningful fashion.

    My example....

    Bel / TMW is proven to be much more effective than bel alone. It has significant studies already, and the combo works better than either alone. We know that bel stands for Belviq, but what does TMW stand for? Three Mile Walk. Bel / TMW works great, but can Arena monetize it?
    May 27, 2014. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Bud....

    Pipelines can have value, but pipelines also cost money.

    Think of it like a kid being a junior in high school. He has potential, but the college education is not going to be cheap. There are tens of dozens of pharma companies with hundreds of pipeline drugs that have potential. It is great to discuss what the pipeline is, snd even get into the potential. However, much of Arena's pipeline is like a college freshman without a major picked out. The classes are all the same set that point. We do not know of we have a young lawyer, a young doctor, or an art history major that will move back home after graduation. How much pipeline is there?

    An example....Thomas Wei assigns about $11.50 out of his $12 taget to Belviq. The pipeline is not yet mature
    May 27, 2014. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Dax.....

    The current 2015 sits at $600 million gross sales in 2015. That would likely shift down by at least 40% in my opinion
    May 27, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Dank...

    I have never personally met him. Is he real? Yes. No comment on his reputation
    May 27, 2014. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Dank....

    Pipeline cost money to get to a marketable place. Why buy a company and pay to develop a pipeline when you can wIt and get it without the costs?
    May 27, 2014. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Dank.....

    At this point I do not think it is really on the table. If it is it will not likely be an offer that arena investors will appreciate
    May 27, 2014. 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena To Present At Jefferies Conference - Is It A Catalyst? [View article]
    Dax....

    I think that sales of $100 million in 2014 is baked in. I think that if sales can go to a pace of $150 million, then the equity can move to $10.

    Some interesting reading

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 27, 2014. 05:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Is The Subject Of A Buyout Rumor - Think First [View article]
    Chris...

    The question is what an offer might be. It is not whether if not such an offer would be accepted.

    The high teens for a current offer on arena is what is laughable. Arena is not worth $3 billion at this juncture. The company burns $140 million a year and has revenues of about $18 million. If you want high teens, you need to hope for a desperate big pharma player or 3 years.
    May 27, 2014. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Flat-To-Slightly Down [View article]
    Readers...

    Launch vs. Re-Launch

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 27, 2014. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Flat-To-Slightly Down [View article]
    Rod...

    Babs is the racist person from a couple of weeks ago that simply creates new ID's to cause as much disruption as possible.

    He/She/It is simply a mosquito. Gotta swat them every now and then.
    May 27, 2014. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Flat-To-Slightly Down [View article]
    Rod....

    I am aware that there is no generic equivalent to Belviq. In concept, there is no generic equivalent to Qsymia or Contrave (if approved) either. I fully understand that there are "approximate" equivalents.

    "no way am I going to write a $200 script instead of 2 generics that cost pennies."

    The interesting thing here is this comment.

    The Belviq script is also about $200. If the cost is an issue, why not simply write the generic phen/top combo that costs pennies? Perhaps that is one of the major reasons that these more expensive treatments are not seeing traction like the companies projected.

    I rested well this holiday weekend. I hope you did as well I am not yet a senior.

    In your practice what percentage of the scripts are phen? what percentage are Belviq? what percentage are phen/top? What percentage are Bel/phen? I understand that you will not script Qsymia and instead try to script a generic equivalent. That is your decision. You make money scripting and dispensing phen. I get it.

    From a pure investment standpoint I do not care about which one is which and how the medicine is delivered. I care about which one will make a better investment.
    May 27, 2014. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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