Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Spencer Osborne  

View Spencer Osborne's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Arena Misses On Earnings [View article]
    Jim....

    One advantage I have is about a decade of dissecting subscriber data with Sirius XM. Believe it or not there is a lot of similarities between the subscription business and the prescription business. I have learned how to assess the numbers and take in little bits of information to assess the numbers.

    In the call did you hear them mention $116 per bottle net? Do a little math and we arrive at about 77k scripts, which is IMS.

    Now, I am going to go on a limb here and say what I have suspected for a while. I would surmise that either IMS is dead on, or that Arena and Eisai use IMS data to do the workings of their contract (something I have suspected for about 6 months now). I believe it is the latter.

    Given that, it would appear prudent to do what I have done and use IMS for revenue, and in fact any projection. I will still adjust IMS upward 10% to capture the fluff factor that I feel is appropriate. I will still include Symphony data in my charts, but reality is that neither Arena nor Eisai is using Symphony, so why should we. I realize that because the symphony number is higher some like it better, but it should be crystal clear now that as far as Belviq goes, IMS is going to be the yardstick.

    My sincere hope is that investors come to this realization sooner rather than later. As long as retail investors are over estimating and vocal about it, the big boys can play games. I can tell you this....divide this quarters numbers by symphony's un-adjusted 95,000 scripts and the revenue per bottle will look ugly.
    May 12, 2014. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings [View article]
    Dax....

    I agree. It is one of the "negatives" of an ad campaign. You get more freebies that will never convert to paying patients. The hope is to attract enough quality patients to offset the non-quality ones.

    What analysts are starting to pay attention to is the refill number. This year started off with refills at 1,147. Seventeen weeks later that number is at 1,698. Refills are growing 2.66% per week. Granted, that some refills are counted in new scripts, but the progress is much more modest than the front end.

    The lack of transparency on that question is,in my opinion, a mistake. The drug has been on the market 11 months. They can frame the answer and avoid looking like they are playing hide and go seek. They did not. That bring focus to the issue
    May 12, 2014. 10:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings [View article]
    One....

    Mexico still could be several months away. What investors should understand is that approval is not a walk in the park. The application was pulled in Europe and the Swiss said it would not be approved. This means that US sales need to drive this stock in 2014 and the early part of 2015
    May 12, 2014. 09:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings [View article]
    Steel.....

    Thank you for the kind words. The way I write is oft thankless, so it is always nice when someone says they appreciate it.
    May 12, 2014. 09:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings [View article]
    Yerma.....

    "It's still early"

    Been there....seen many companies pull this line out. The reason they do is almost never because it is too early. We are almost a year in now. They have the data, but likely realize that it is not as attractive as they would like it to be.
    May 12, 2014. 09:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings [View article]
    JD...

    A reasonable investor might make a phone call before jumping to the conclusion to adjust. I made the call looong ago. What I know is that I have what I feel is a very good handle on how to assess weekly scripts vs. revenue.

    Interestingly, at the end of Q4 the company commented that inventory was low. Q1 traction was light, especially in the beginning of the quarter.
    May 12, 2014. 09:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Misses On Earnings [View article]
    Brian...

    IMS and symphony report total and new rx. The difference between the two is refills. It is not perfect, because a second script will generate a new script counted instead of a refill, but traction can still be monitored. Further, eisai can have data that we do not have. As a schedule IV drug, it is monitored.
    May 12, 2014. 08:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Script Sales, New Reps, Broader Insurance Coverage [View article]
    yossi....

    "BTW, Symphony TRx went UP 24% last two weeks (11.3% per week on average);"

    Or you could say up 24% in the last 3 weeks for an average of 8%

    Or you could say up 10% in the last 4 weeks for an average of 2.5%

    Or you could say up 9% in the last 5 weeks for an average of 1.8%

    Or you could say up 15% in the last 6 weeks for an average of 2.5%

    Or you could say up 15% in the last 7 weeks for an average of 2.14%

    Or you could say up 21% in the last 8 weeks for an average of 2.65%

    Or you could say up 20% in the last 9 weeks for an average of 2.22%

    Or you could say up 30% in the last 10 weeks for an average of 3%

    Or you could say up 42% in the last 11 weeks for an average of 3.8%

    Or you could say up 42% in the last 12 weeks for an average of 3.5%

    It seems to me that you seek out any possible way (often) to put as positive a spin on information as you can. If IMS is higher than Symphony on a percentage basis you quote IMS. If Symphony is higher you quote Symphony. If a three week look gives the best light you present that. If it is two weeks, or 5 weeks, that is what you present.

    To each his own. If one has to jump through the hoops that you do to make yourself feel good about the situation, then typically it means that it is not as good as you really wish it was.
    May 12, 2014. 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMS Health Vs. Symphony Health - Counting Scripts [View instapost]
    umudda....

    My belief is that the "real number" is somewhere between the two services.
    May 12, 2014. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Script Sales, New Reps, Broader Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Lance.....

    Both Belviq and phentermine suppress the appetite. If you are getting the needed results with Belviq alone, why add phentermine? If Belviq is not producing the results you need, why jump to a combo of a pill that does not work with one you have not tried yet?

    In my opinion, if Belviq does not work, the next logical step is phentermine. If phentermine does not work, then perhaps bel/phen is a logical step, but perhaps something like Qsymia, or Contrave (if approved) may be logical steps.

    Because both bel and phen suppress appetite, you may not see any real benefit from the combo.

    Now, if we consider a product like the one being developed by zafgen with beloranib (if approved) it could be interesting. The zafgen product targets fat and fat production...not appetite.

    The bottom line is whether bel/phen can be monetized to a level that is meaningful to the stock. As yet, neither arena nor Eisai have given any color on that.
    May 11, 2014. 10:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Script Sales, New Reps, Broader Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Lance....

    TMW stands for "three mile walk". It works substantially better.
    May 11, 2014. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Script Sales, New Reps, Broader Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Grand view....

    The graphs are a grossly absurd and skewed graphical representation of sales and the short position which are manipulated to portray a desired effect rather than a realistic one. This is not about playing nice, it is about the simple reality. Any Reasonable person that simply wants to show the sales trajectory would NEVER, I repeat NEVER do it in the manner in which Yossi has done it.

    The only way to accurately characterizes his graphs is to call them what they are. A gross manipulation of the data to skew the image of progress vs. reality.
    May 11, 2014. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Script Sales, New Reps, Broader Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Eng.....

    Diet season is usually January 1 through June 1. If you look at the quarterly reports for weight watchers (as an example) and look at the revenues for each quarter you will see that from June 1 to December 1 is the downtrend of the cycle. There are many interesting things to learn in this sector. For example, weight watchers does their television ads Monday through Friday, and rarely on the weekends. There is a reason for that, I suspect it was learned through years of experience. I think that weight watchers not only understands the market on an annual, and seasonal basis, but also on a monthly and weekly basis.
    May 11, 2014. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Discloses Competitive Threat [View article]
    gm2B....

    My BMW vs. Chevy comment was not in relation to generic Qsymia....a single pill taken once per day, but to people taking the generic components in term of up to 4 pills up to twice a day.

    Now, if we have brand name Q vs generic Q...Both 1 pill once per day, I agree that the masses will go to the generic.....That is exactly why I have said that a generic Q will impact the sector as a whole
    May 11, 2014. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq And Phentermine [View instapost]
    yossi....

    Excuse me, but what exactly makes you feel that there is no responders/non-responders issue? I think that you are imagining things.

    Why would Lorc/Phen bring a vanity market and Bel alone would not?

    The important question....HOW IS IT MONETIZED

    If it were such a great and important aspect, then why are there not many people already doing it. There is nothing stopping a doctor from scripting the combo already.
    May 11, 2014. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
8,864 Comments
7,454 Likes