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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    Disclosure update.

    The morning run did not hit my $2.80 sell target to trim my shares. I am revising my order to $2.75.

    Upon completion of this sale, I will have the number of shares I desire to hold as a core position for the pipeline and possible smoking cessation play.

    In effect, I will have sold 33% of my position at a profit, 33% for a loss, and sit on a paper loss with the remaining 33%. Cost basis is $3.95
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    To my knowledge it was not Jim that was going to have the meeting.

    I get a lot of communications from a lot of people. Sometimes it is hard to determine what is the real informations d what is imagined by people without all of the information.

    I have not spoken to the "source" person, whom I believe was the person scheduled to carry out this meeting, to know all of the details. It is exactly why I am reserved in my opinion.

    A while back I was asked for my take how changing board members, etc. happens. I answered in saying that there is a process that needs to happen that is in the bylaws of the any companies charter. I also said it is a long process.

    the group seems to have an agenda of shaking up management and impacting the makeup of management and or the board. When a group goes public with that agenda and then indicates that it has a meeting, it leVes the impression to onlookers that the meeting is discussing the agenda of the group. That impression could be very wrong.

    Much like the impression mr. Yessir has about my trading history. He presents a portion of the information, knowing that others will make an assumption different than what is real. He is a dishonest person that lacks integrity. It is a cowardly maneuver. The same can be said for mr. Roof.

    The bottom line is that this group has now created a dynamic where they bring clouds onto the horizon and those that would look for information are left wondering.

    My hope is that such a meeting did not transpire. Not because it should or shouldn't transpire, but rather that the process was flawed.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]
    Interesting that there has been no word about this alleged meeting with Jack Lief. This activist group wanted to recruit members, touted a meeting with Jack that was to happen yesterday, and now no word at all.

    Hopefully Jack did not take the meeting. If he took the meeting and there is silence from all sides, then that is very problematic.

    If the meeting was cancelled or not held, why would this group leave everyone wondering. This creates uncertainty. If the meeting was not held, this group should have made that known.

    If there was a meeting, and there is now silence, that leaves just as much speculation and doubt. Was something discussed that Is Not public information? Why the silence after being so public about the meeting prior to it happening?

    Interesting times
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]
    Additional disclosure....

    As stated above, my sell order (to trim holdings to an appropriate level given the delay in smoking cessation) at $2.80 did not fill on Monday. The sell order did not fill today. Thus, as I pen this I still hold the same position as when I wrote this piece. I will try to play a morning run again tomorrow....if it happens.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Wins Another Sales Week - Don't Bank On Impressive Numbers [View article]

    I went long orex with a modest position for a specific play. That play was EU approval and an announcement of a partner for EU. That strategy has been fully disclosed.

    The EU approval happened. The stock rose. The partnership did not. Then the 50% data came out and the stock went down.

    Seeing that it is still early in the year, and the modest bet I placed, I decided to hold the paper loss until later in the year to see if there would be some recovery.

    I do not let my investment dictate my reporting. I report on facts, reality, and my opinion based on those things.

    Would you rather have honest analysis or someone blowing smoke because they have a position?
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Youngevity International: Is This Company Brewing Upside Potential? [View article]

    I have listened to the call. I have also followed that up with direct questions to the company. The quote on the call is as follows:

    "I'm proud to say that, we passed those test very well and our Nicaraguan coffee is now being sold to Dunkin Donuts. I think we have mentioned that. Dunkin Donuts is obviously a very large purchaser of green coffee. Our coffee is now at Mother Parker. Our coffee is now being sold in McDonalds and also Tim Hortons in Canada which was recently acquired by Burger King."

    Just because you imagine that they would make a big deal and issue PR's does not mean that no such deal exists. In fact, your assumption is so far off base that it borders on being ludicrous. Do you really think the company would make statements if they were not true?

    You made an assumption of 450 acres and seem to have stopped there.

    They control over 1,000 acres and can process more. In essence, they have a very scalable coffee business model that gas come into fruition over the past year. They will process their own beans as well as beans from others as well.

    Nicaragua does about 25 million pounds. Youngevity does about 2.5 million pounds. Production per acre is likely higher than you think.

    The bottom line is this. You have now learned that this company is selling coffee to the big players. You have learned that they can process more than their own beans. You have learned that the costs of this project are essentially in the past now.

    We can debate about pounds per acre all day, but it does not really accomplish much. What is happening is that the coffee business is growing and capable of handling some serious volume.
    Aug 25, 2015. 01:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Youngevity International: Is This Company Brewing Upside Potential? [View article]

    If you listen to the last conference call you will hear about Dunkin and McD's. Tim Hortons is a customer as well.

    The plantation owned is 460 acres. They manage 1,000 acres.

    For comparison look at Hawaii. There are about 8,000 acres of plantation there and about 800 farms. that is an average of 10 acres per farm. Owning a 450 acre coffee plantation is not something to sneeze at. Controlling 1,000 cores is nothing to sneeze at. An acre can generate 1,500 pounds of coffee. Hawaii between 8 million and 9 million pounds a year.

    Coffee is a tough market. All markets are tough. Placing itself in a good position is what it is about. I think the numbers in the next 4 quarters from the coffee business will surprise you. There is a distinct difference between commercial coffee and specialty coffee.

    Anyway, take a listen to the call to learn about Dunkin and mcdonalds
    Aug 25, 2015. 12:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    Got a bit of info on something supposedly attributed to you...

    "Spencer just sold very near the bottom. This is the third tag on the same trend line that is defined as the 11/2013 lows, the January 2015 lows and... this is the third time we are on this line... EXACTLY.

    If anything, this would be the time to buy.

    Personally, I am more inclined than ever to label Spencer as a shill for the shorts."

    Jim did you just insinuate that I am a shill for shorts?

    1. Such activity is highly ileagal. You should be very careful before making statements that someone is involved in activities such as that. Serious allegations like this should not be bandied about lightly.

    2. I will make it crystal clear. I do not work for longs and I do not work for shorts. What I write is not directed by anyone.

    now, would you like it if I went in boards about photography and to several clients and started to say that I am highly inclined to think that Jim Roof has been caught up in a child porn ring? I think not.

    You should really stop and think before you speak Jim.
    Aug 24, 2015. 07:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    I reset my position in the fall of last year to a cost basis of 3.95 or so.

    I can be patient with what I will have left. I will continue to assess
    Aug 24, 2015. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    My $2.80 sell of part of my position did not clear today. I have a pending sell order in. As I stated in my article, I have been looking to trim down shares because if the delay in the smoking trial. From a technical standpoint, 2.80 was important and is important. I will not sell at the open tomorrow, but will try to see if I can get my order filled on the usual morning run. Bin my opinion, $2.50 is not out of the question, and if broken another leg down must be considered. I intend to hold, as stated, some shares for the pipeline but will monitor the market as time passes.

    My last sale was back in March at $4.51. I sold about a third of my position. My cost basis is $3.95.

    My intent is to cut my current holdings by 50% and monitor. This will give me 33% of the shares that I held as 2015 started. One third made a $0.56 profit. One third will be at a bit over $1.00 loss, and one third will be held to see how the pipe plays out.
    Aug 24, 2015. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    You certainly do not need to bother to read if you so desire.

    You do not like the weekly sales updates. That is fine. Many people do like them. That is fine as well.

    Simple solution for you. Check in once a month.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    I stated right after the call, when the delay was placed on smoking cessation, that I intend to trim my position. I trimmed about a third of my position, at a profit, on the spike back in March. My intent is to trim the remainder by half and see what transpires in the months ahead. I am at about break even, so it is not like there is a massive loss on paper
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    From what I know, Jim is not the person having the meeting.

    What we know

    1. A group of shareholders has gathered and apparently arrived at a unified opinion that Jack needs to go.

    2. This group conducted a call, or tried to set up a call, in the last week to discuss their thoughts.

    3. A member of that group has arranged a meeting with Jack that in theory will happen today

    4. Word of thus meeting has gotten out with many people making the assumption that Jack has agreed to a meeting with a spokesperson for this group and assuming that the group agenda will be the subject matter.

    5. Members of this group have been highly critical of Jack and want him to step down. Many communications,in private, have been made. Many communications, in public, have been expressed, not necessarily by the member having the meeting, but by those reading these communications

    What we do not know

    1. Why Jack would agree to a meeting with an activist group that has quasi-publicly spelled out its platform, but not formalized it to a point that people fully grasp the goals and agenda?

    2. Whether or not the full board is aware of this meeting

    3. Under what guise this meeting was agreed to by Jack. Is he aware that members of this group are calling for him to step down?

    4. How institutional shareholders with substantial positions will react to such a meeting, because it will certainly become a topic of discussion.

    The problems here are many.

    There is a process for shareholders to bring about a change in leadership. That process involves getting an issue on the ballot for a shareholder vote. Short circuiting that process is not progress and can be very problematic.
    Instead of management carrying the message, thus group or person will likely deliver their interpretation of the dialogue of such a meeting. If such communication contains innuendo, the thought that information that is not public could have been discussed.

    Reality is that this may be a "courtesy" meeting that will not deliver any satisfaction to the group, yet gives that group the "power" to say that they were heard, and management is aware of this groups concerns. Management, by agreeing to this meeting, exposes the company to possible issues. Think about it. A group us unhappy with the current direction and feels that Jack is not meeting his fiduciary responsibility to shareholders. They express their concerns to management in a meeting that is only between Jack and one person. If copious notes are not generated, thus group has power to disimminate the story in a manner they see fit. The company is then painted into a corner in which it may need to respond. It then becomes a story of management either blowing off a group or management bowing down to a very small group. Neither is good.

    If I were Jack, and had the knowledge of what the groups opinion was, I would refer that group to the process that is spelled out.

    One only needs to look as far as first Manhattan and Vivus to see how the process is supposed to work, and how arduous that process is. There is no shortcut.

    This makes me believe that such a meeting is not what many readers feel it is.

    Dangerous situation in my opinion.

    The mentality here is predictable.

    If you poll passionate readers about the Consimer Reports piece, you will see the pathway to the danger. The consumer report piece was given light because passionate shareholders took up arms for a fight that did not need to happen. When I covered the piece, I made some simple statements. I stated that shareholders should be cautious about ruffling feathers because it would just make consumer reports reiterate its position. As it happens, the doctors in that report carry an opinion that many doctors carry. There was no conspiracy. These doctors had the same opinion about Qsymia and Contrave, and that opinion is well engrained in medicine. To this day, passionate arena nvestors slam me for covering the consumer reports. Rational investors read my coverage of that for what it really was. Ironically, had they heeded my advise, they would not have had CR report twice on its opinion. The non-issue of the CR fiasco became a mantra for over passionate shareholders.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    I know it happens all of the time. Nth at being said, it is usually not well known. My understanding is that one person will be meeting and ma ny know it. Are notes to the meeting going to be distributed? Do investors get an "interpretation" of the meeting from the attending person?

    What we have now is investors expecting things based on a lot of hyperbole.

    Investors may not get context, but rather a quote like, "Jack said thus, that, and the other thing"

    You are talking about people that said Jack promised to increase shareholder value in a conference call. Now these folks will have Jack quoted in a formal meeting.

    I fully expect Jack to blow smoke. I fully expect that the result of blowing smoke will be ire on the part of the group.

    This meeting will create frustrated shareholders that feel they have no voice and are not being heard and turn them into frustrated shareholders that know they were heard and are still ignored.

    Possible class actions arise from such dynamics. I can already picture the level of speculation, word smithing, and purple prose that will transpire.

    Think about this. Are you aware of under what guise this meeting was agreed to? Is Jack fully aware? Is the board aware?
    Aug 24, 2015. 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    Against my better judgement, I will delve deeper...

    If a meeting exists, I am stunned that jack or the board would have accepted it. There us little good that can come from such a meeting, and there are many negatives that can arise. If such a meeting were to take place, I can see just cause for a class action lawsuit forming as this unfolds.

    I have to wonder if Jack is fully aware of the actions of this group, some of the opinions expressed by members of the group, and the communications that have been penned by its membership. In my opinion, if Jack was fully aware, and actually gave this group a meeting, I would be highly disappointed in him.

    The end result of what this group is looking for is likely a decent path, but if arenas board were to take such a meeting I. Would find it as a massive vote of dis-confidence in the management.

    As a public company, Jack taking such a meeting is opening the door to massive exposure. Such a meeting gives an institution huge leverage moving forward To drive an agenda thT this activist group may not want to see.

    This group is not well enough established to command such a meeting, and members can be far more harmful after they spend an hour getting smoke blown up their posteriors.

    Real meetings along These lines come after the group has shown at least 5% of the shareholder base in support of the group. Anything lower than that is not material, amd if a meeting is granted simple lip service by management to saythat they "listened".

    In my opinion, a shake up in management would be a good move. Hats off to a group if they help that process along. Hats thrown away if this group actually serves to facilitate a class action lawsuit on a scale that could harm this company.

    Publicizing this "meeting" shows that the group is intent on exerting its will. The moment thus "meeting" became public knowledge is the moment that this management appears tally out of control.

    Think about it. If you were Blackrock and management accepted a meeting about company direction from a group representing less than one tenth if one perscemtbof the shares would you be happy?
    This group may actually be counterproductive to their own desires I with all of this,

    If such a meeting actually takes place, I will be selling half my shares as quickly as possible, because management should have never agreed to such a meeting.
    Aug 23, 2015. 10:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment