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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena - Belviq Advertising Report For June [View article]
    wals....

    Why on earth ask another poster what I think?

    The reps Takeda dedicate to Contrave are also promoting other Takeda products in a complimentary way. That strategy has served Contrave well. It can be seen in the launch trajectory of Contrave.

    Eisai has now trimmed reps to a much smaller number, and allowed Belviq to be in the same marketing bag with an erectile dysfunction drug from Vivus. The ED drug is a much easier sell for reps, and probably gets top billing when a rep does get to see a doctor. Ironically, the current situation actually hurts Belviq, helps Vivus, and essentially means that the current reps are likely not very effective.

    The Eisai strategy was much better with dedicated reps.

    The overall problem in the sector is that people do not stay on these drugs for more than two or three months. As yet, none of these companies have developed a way to communicate how these drugs should be used to the three most important entities....DOCTORS...... The company that can get that done will grab the market.
    Jul 1, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Advertising Report For June [View article]
    Steve.....

    The stock will not really react to any individual article. I try to be objective, and do not let any investment I have influence what I write.
    Jul 1, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Advertising Report For June [View article]
    Carlo....

    In the weight loss sector, Vivus is the third horse in a three horse race. All three pills are in the same ballpark in terms of efficacy and safety, but Vivus has the least marketing push behind it, a REMS program, and will have trouble gaining approval outside the U.S. One of Qsymia's two ingredients is banned in Europe. Essentially Vivus does not have the stomach to spend what it takes to drive sales. With the margins on these pills, sales need to see a huge increase to get revenue to meaningful levels.

    Vivus does have some potential with Stendra, but as yet, it is not even known in the consumer realm. In my opinion the only reason to buy into Vivus is a Stendra play, and that will take some time to develop. Investing in Vivus for the anti-obesity play is betting that the third place finisher will make money. Then we have to consider that others are entering the space.
    Jul 1, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Advertising Report For June [View article]
    Carlo....

    The marketing of Qsymia is pretty much relegated to web activity and sales reps

    The marketing of Contrave is pretty much relegated to sales reps.

    Eisai has the most aggressive television campaign with belviq.

    Contrave enjoys the biggest sales rep force with 900 reps touting the product.

    Qsymia has the least amount of marketing, and it shows by the fact that its sales are the lowest.
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Advertising Report For June [View article]
    Movin....

    Thank you for the kind words. Sugar coating may help people feel good, but it is not helpful in the realm of understanding an investment. I am oft accused of being negative, but how much has there really been to be "positive" about with Belviq over the last couple of years?
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Advertising Report For June [View article]
    dax....

    No problem. Thank you for the kind words.

    Cheers
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Advertising Report For June [View article]
    jay....

    I write a weekly piece on scripts. Sometimes it is published Friday, sometimes Monday or Tuesday. I do a monthly piece on advertising. Today is July 1st, so the report on June is timely. I do not look at stock price when publishing these pieces. I also do not choose if/when they get published.

    Cheers
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Lead The Sector, But Need Improvement [View article]
    K.....

    Well aware of sales in South Korea. I discuss them in each arena article I write. IF sales in South Korea are 2,000 per week, it does not make up for sales being well below expectations in the United States. South Kore Sales were supposed to be the gravy on top of accelerating US sales. sales in the U.S. In the sector SUCK. They SUCK for all three pills. Why is it that people find the next excuse to justify an investment rather than simply dealing in reality.

    Arena pipeline us more than TWO YEARS away. I have investments that have gone up 6 to 10 fold in less time. Are you really an advocate of sinking a big chunk of your portfolio into an equity and waiting three years for it to pan out. Are you like many investors that have waited three years already and now have to wait three more?

    You should look up the Eisai fiscal year.

    Eisai said the first 7 months of sales would be $150 million. They were not

    Eisai said that the first 10 months of sales would be $200 million. They were not.

    Eisai said print ads would drive sales. They did not.

    Eisai said more reps would drive sales.b they did not.

    Eisai said that television ads would drive sales. They have not.

    Eisai said that they would increase ads. They have decreased them.

    Eisai says a lot. You need to take what they say with a whole shaker of salt.

    Sales in this sector suck. Belviq's trajectory in q2 is NEGATIVE. That is not a good thing.
    Jun 30, 2015. 07:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat- Quarter Over Quarter Will Not Impress [View article]
    Newgate.....

    Equites can easily move 5% or 10% on a whim.
    Jun 30, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat- Quarter Over Quarter Will Not Impress [View article]
    Sedric....

    My responses to counter are what the authorities are telling me to do in order to establish that the stalker is willfully and knowingy engaging in ilegal behavior. Cyber stalking cases can be difficult to prosecute if the perpetrator is wavy and utilizes proxy servers in communicating and making comments. I have been instructed to respond simply with the comment that the stalking us ilegal and that the person has been put on notice. My actions allow a successful prosecution of multiple IP addresses. While there is certainly aggravation in this, I am fully capable of defending my home and family if need be. I am highly trained in such matters and will not hesitate to utilize my rights. The worry comes in the form of a person taking the time to attempt communications with my minor children. School systems, bus drivers, etc. have all been informed of this matter and local police are fully in the loop. I deal with many jerks and have dealt with many jerks. This latest stalking gas approached a new level. My stalker appears to be a vey troubled individual that seems incapable of realizing how much trouble they are actually creating for themselves. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts will prosecute "John Doe" even in his absence from trial. The repeated and willful violations simply make that prosecution easier.

    I will not allow a stalker to impact my writing, nor my family. I will do everything in my power to see this through whatever channels necessary. Seeking alpha could remove this persons ability to post, which would put an end to the matter in terms of the exposure to other readers.

    At the current pace, there will be multiple IP addresses prosecuted with warrants issued. The commonwealth cross references IP addresses, and may subpeona ip addresses further.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat- Quarter Over Quarter Will Not Impress [View article]
    Sedric....

    Phase 1 is indeed early. Arena has a couple of candidates entering phase 2. Not heAvy promotion on them, but they do put it out there.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat- Quarter Over Quarter Will Not Impress [View article]
    Sedric....

    That's fine. Glad you know the numbers
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat- Quarter Over Quarter Will Not Impress [View article]
    Sedric....

    I take it that you looked at the numbers.
    Jun 29, 2015. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat- Quarter Over Quarter Will Not Impress [View article]
    Ik....

    You are certainly allowed to think management is dishonest. That does not mean that the market cap should be the $25 million you want to assign. The street is not likely to value arena that low. Saying that you think the pipeline will fail without giving a reason why is not really supporting your stance. Phase 1 trials in a couple if cases here have seen enough positive results to warrant phase 2 trials. The data is there to support progression. The data is not there to support ceasing these programs. Wall Street, for the most part, is willing to assign some value to pipeline. Some analysts assign at least fifty cents to the pipeline alone without considering cash, Belviq, etc.
    Jun 29, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Remain Flat- Quarter Over Quarter Will Not Impress [View article]
    Wals.....

    You have some lowlife scumbag sending threatening communications to your minor children and tell me what your response would be. Just because counter pretends to act like a good citizen here does not mega he is a good citizen. His behavior is for the consumption of people like you so that you will act just the way you have. Counters days doing his stalking are numbered. It may take the state a while, but it will happen. I do not post that response for clicks. I post my response to continue to build the case against a stalker. My apologies if you don't like it. I will defend my family, and especially my kids to the ends of the earth. You can simply ignore the posts. They do not provide "clicks" that mean anything to me. in fact, I do not really care about clicks. Writing is not how I make a living.

    I do not care if people disagree with me. Icarus disagrees with me and that is quite fine.

    Now, if you have a problem with me defending myself and my family against the ilegal activity of a stalker, who thinks he is slick enough to hide his real agenda in what appears to be reasonable comments, you can go pound sand. The state has informed me that I should give continued warning responses and that is what I will do.
    Jun 29, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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