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Spencer Osborne

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  • What Arena's Belviq Television Ad Campaign Means For The Stock [View article]
    mr....

    That is how these things work. Currently they need to address the issues that are on the label. If they do not address it in the ad, they open themselves up to some litigation exposure that they do not want.
    Apr 14 10:20 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Arena's Belviq Television Ad Campaign Means For The Stock [View article]
    yerma...

    Thank you. That is the link provided in the first paragraph of the article
    Apr 14 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Mr...

    I am aware of that. I wrote about it last fall.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    One distinct difference is that Novo has applied to get weight loss added to its label. Another is that victoza is for diabetes. It is common, and there is a correlation (a substantial one) between diabetes and weight.

    At this point it is probably not very wise for Eisai to debut an ad for a weightloss drug and bring smoking cessation into the mix. It just does not carry a strong connection. The idea here is to advertise a weightloss drug.

    If you have diabetes your doctor is typically recommending loss of weight, and in fact weight is likely a contributing factor to the diabetic condition. There is no real connection between smoking and weight.

    There are many things Eisai can say in an ad legally. As an investor I want to see Eisai have a smart ad, not one that can cause disconnect.
    Apr 14 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Symphony numbers....pretty flat as well.
    Apr 13 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Os good....

    What is bearish or bullish? The framework of impact on an equity is created by performance vs. expectations.

    What we are seeing now is analysts come to sales in the neighborhood of $150 million. If that number becomes more and more common as a expectation, then getting there becomes less of an equity driving force.

    There is stock appreciation that will happen if the company continues to a pace of $150 million. If you are looking for this equity to go to $20 on 2014 sales of $150 million you will be disappointed. $150 million can establish a baseline of $10 from which to build.
    Apr 13 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Jakes,

    I do not expect smoking cessation to be brought up. I think it would be foolish for them to do it at this point. Quitting smoking is not really a side effect. They need to bring up awareness of the brand first.
    Apr 12 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Investor....

    Go talk to an Eisai rep and ask them what numbers their pay is based on.
    Apr 12 04:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Nikos....

    This is the exact reason that expectations need to be properly framed and approvals in other countries are needed.
    Apr 12 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Max....

    I think that there will be some near term upside pop with one catalyst happening. Sales do need to improve though.
    Apr 12 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Awe....

    Symphony numbers were not out when I wrote this. They often aren't. IMS has been the industry standard for quite some time. That is not to say that one is more right than the other. Both are in the same neighborhood.

    Symphony made a substantial adjustment to their methodology at this time last year. I lean to splitting the difference. I find it amazing how people want to embrace whichever one tells the better story for the week. Symphony was flat this week and IMS was up 2%.

    Eisai uses IMS by the way.
    Apr 11 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    readers...

    My apologies for a small error in charts above:

    Chart 6 (revenue)

    The revenue for last week should be $1,565,117. The revenue this week should be $1,577,846.

    I will try to get updated chart submitted
    Apr 11 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Up Modestly Heading Into Television Ads [View article]
    Thank You for the kind words. Cheers
    Apr 11 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    poro....

    Obesity is prevalent in 35% of the adult population

    Of that, 34% are men and 36% are women.

    On its face, that clearly shows that women of child bearing age are not 80% of the obesity market.

    68% of the female group is of child bearing age.

    To simplify...out of 100 people....

    35 will be obese

    Out of those 35, 18 will be women and 17 will be men.

    Out of the 18 that are women, 12 will be of child bearing age.

    Thus, about 33% of the obesity market are women of child bearing age.

    http://1.usa.gov/1kQdZRM
    Apr 11 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    osgood....

    Now tell me how much is allocated to television ads.

    You are aware that most marketing dollars are spent "detailing doctors" I hope
    Apr 8 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    super...

    I agree, but shouold a person 20 pouynds overweight take an obesity pill....OR....get on the stick, eat right, and do some exercise?
    Apr 7 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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