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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    I am not on anyone's payroll. If you have the courage to stand behind your assertion, put money where your mouth is.

    Pick an amount, but let's make sure it is worth while. Put up anything between $100,000 and $1 million.

    I will fly you to Boston. I will put you up in a hotel. I will give you full access to computer records, cell records, bank accounts, tax returns, investment accounts, etc. you can go through whatever you like. Once you see that I am not on the payroll of anyone, you give me the $100,000 to $1 million.

    If you believe what you assert, you have a chance to make some good money.b if you do not believe what you assert, you lose some good money.

    Do you have the courage to stand behind you assertions, or are you going to slink away as an anonymous poster that likes to do drive by shootings?
    Oct 10, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Icahn Gets $170 Million Worth Of Bonds - What's Next [View article]

    Let me be real simple.

    1. I do not drink mangosteen juice on a regular basis. In fact, I have not had any in over a year.

    2. I have DECADES of experience in the market. I see things happen again, and again, and again.

    3. Buying up debt at a discount is predatory. It is actually very simple to see. Buying equity is far more friendly t those already in the equity. Think of it this way. Icahn is the big fish that this company owes money to. He is not the person that originally bought the debt.

    Let's use the movies to illustrate the point.

    Suzy owes the bank money on her house. The bank can call the note any time. Guido the mafia man steps in and buys suzy's note from the bank. Guido then calls up Suzy and says money is due next week. Big Suzy does not pay, he takes the house.

    Get it?

    Icahn owning debt does not make him long. It makes him a debt holder. Why us this concept so difficult for overpassionste longs to grasp?

    I have given you links to other companies Icahn has bought debt in. It is an espadrilles Google search as well.

    You blinded yourself into seeing a positive for three years now. They dangle a carrot and you bite it. Each and every time they yank the carrot away. You have been fooled all the way from $15 to $1. Now you are inventing your own carrots. Wow.

    An Icahn protege lost his shirt on vivus. You turn that into a carrot.

    Icahn bought equity in another company sending that stock up. You turn that into a carrot.

    Icahn has a very profitable and simple play just owning the debt.

    What does it tell you when current bond holders sell out at $0.68 on the dollar?
    Oct 10, 2015. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    The vigilante investors have now given the ambulance chasers some meat to chew on. That is not good. Never is. Think about the a moment.

    1. I suspect tha a deivative suit was already threatened and already in the works.

    2. A "group" forms but lacks true organization, does not have goals outlined and lacks any true form where shares are committed.

    3. The group outlines a bunch of dirty laundry in its quest to bring change.

    4. "Members" of the unorganized group run to message boards and to institutions with their "concerns" and share the laundry list of "mistakes".

    5. The board, threatened with a derivative suit pushes back

    6. The group gets a meeting with management. The fact that this happened was very problematic. I sold one third of my position on that news.

    7. The meeting results are kept secret.

    8. A few weeks later the hard, covering its own butt, dismisses Jack.

    Do you see why the ambulance chasers are here? This "group" got what it thought it wanted. Now they will see that it does not really change much. Guess what happens. Some "members" become the leaders in the class action.

    Best thing that can happen now is to get bought out, and toss all of the "stuff" to the curb. Shareholders will be the odd man out, and complain how Wall Street is manipulated. Meanwhile they will not even realize all if the problems they brought on themselves.

    Phen works the same way, but us far cheaper, and far better understood.

    Zafgen actually has something pretty compelling coming down the path.
    Oct 10, 2015. 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Icahn Gets $170 Million Worth Of Bonds - What's Next [View article]

    First, I was not saying he was going to short. I have mental midgets come up with all kinds of things. Things like the short position in this equity is something other than ordinary. I made a rather simple and sarcastic remark hat Icahn could go short. The fact that you were unable to read into the sarcasm demonstrates that you Jack the intellect to even carry on a rTionsl discussion. Read up a doc e back after you educate yourself for another 10 or 15 years.

    You say Icahn is long. At this stage we do not know. Again. You need to EDUCATE yourself. Look at Icahn plays when he buys debt. He often flips it.

    Carlo.....I get that ou, in your deepest and most desparate way, WANT him to be long. It does not make it so.

    Icahn us in the for Icahn. He is not in it because Carlo and many others are under water.

    Stop drinking moron juice, learn to read sarcasm, and learn more about how Icahn makes his play. If he bought the equity, he would be long. He bought the debt. He is a predator that may or may not allow underwater longs to get some scraps
    Oct 10, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Icahn Gets $170 Million Worth Of Bonds - What's Next [View article]

    I am impressed (not) that these comments seem to go over your head.

    Carlo.....what is the typical strategy of a convert bond holder?

    The typical strategy is to short the underlying equity.

    Why do that? Because it brings cash back right away and you will already have the shares to cover with an 11th hour conversion.

    So. Now we have established that Byers of converts typically short the underlying equity in an amount of shares equal to those tied to a conversion.

    I simply stated that Icahn himself could do exactly that. A reader felt that there were odd things happening with the shorts. I stated that if you look at the data there s nothing out of the ordinary happening. Then simp,y made the observation that Icahn can do a very simple play that he has done before.

    Buy the convert debt, short the underlying equity, collect his interest, and wit for this to play its course.

    He also buts debt and then resells it.

    Please, stop drinking the moron juice and think about reality.

    I wonder if when you made that comment you sat back and smiled feeling like you were a good person
    Oct 10, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    Arena, and by extension Jack, had virtually no say in what transpired with Belvq after the partnership was signed.

    Management has been involved in shifting gears.

    Chasing legislation that will Not see the light of day would have been a massive and colossal waste of time. Even if the current legislation were to pass ( by a miracle upon a miricale wrapped up in a miracle) it would not take effect for TWO YEARS.

    The big issue with these drugs is not legislation and not cost. It us that they do not work in the manner that consumers want. This is why the average person is only on them for three months. After three months weight loss flattens out, people see no progress, and they stop. I gave interviewed countless doctors and patients on the subject.

    A coordinated effort was discussed at one point. Nit fell through.

    I would have been supportive of an organized and system end change. Instead, we had a group of vigilante investors airing any laundry they could and now have the situation we are in.

    The bottom line is that these drugs do not sell because they peak after 3 months.
    Oct 10, 2015. 12:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    Not much. Sales will be down. No study results pending other than XR.
    Oct 9, 2015. 09:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    You need to read the contract.

    Belviq' in essence, belongs to Eisai.

    Eisai control marketing. Eisai controls price. Eisai controls study decisions beyond phase 2.

    Jack had no say in price
    Oct 9, 2015. 09:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Starting End Of Year Weakness- What Is The Impact For Investors? [View article]

    Numbers usually come out Friday. If I have time I do the write up on Friday. If not, it is usually Monday.

    Seals for Contrave were up a bit. Still below peak sales. They will be pretty flat to down in October. November and ad ember are usually down
    Oct 9, 2015. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Icahn Gets $170 Million Worth Of Bonds - What's Next [View article]

    I am not being arrogant. I am being prudent. There is a MASSIVE difference between when Icahn buys an equity and when Icahn buys debt.

    Icahn has NOTHING to do with Vivus at this stage. He is a "banker" right now. Nothing more, nothing less. He can become an activist, and I have stated I believe he will use his leverage to exert his will. That will could be something that does not benefit current shareholders much. Heck, he often buts debt and then flips it.

    Why on earth would it take conspiracy to BK vivus?

    Vivus has huge debt, huge cost commitments for a CVOT study and precipus little revenue. No conspiracy needed. If the company can not get a loan, and can not pay its debt, then BK is the only option.

    You seem to feel that it has best in class drugs. The market does not agree. In obesity, Contrave is cleaning house. In ED, Stendra is barely known. Good drugs? Yes. Best in class? I doubt it. There are other anti obesity dugs coming down the path that are better than anything on the market today.

    Of all readers you seem to be the most confused that Icahn buying debt is much different than Icshn buying equity. You also seem to be overly concerned about my investments. Very strange. my investments in this sector are very modest yet some seem to obsess about them.

    This sector has been piss poor. Vivus has been the worst performer. Those are facts.
    Oct 8, 2015. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Icahn Gets $170 Million Worth Of Bonds - What's Next [View article]

    Have you ever heard of a forward purchase contract? With the equity at a buck he could have tied up tons of shares from any of the institutions at prices as low as $1.50

    Pull the short interest. Nothing out of the ordinary.

    Qsymia is about to pass belviq in scripts. Do you think that is good? Really. That is like a snail passing a slug in a race that has rabbit in it. Who gives a rats posterior if sales are 5 times lower than they need to be?

    Just look at revenue? Do you always assess just one side of the equation? You have to look at cost as well. Heck, if you want to get down and dirty, look at the payments of partners, up front and milestones.

    Denner has been involved as the share price has plummeted.

    Look, if you want to wave Pom-poms that is perfectly fine. It does not impact me at all. Personally, I would suggest that you look at all sides.
    Oct 8, 2015. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Icahn Gets $170 Million Worth Of Bonds - What's Next [View article]

    This will play out long after the election. Icahn is in many plays right now. This is just one of them
    Oct 8, 2015. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    Many I let go. I do however defend myself staunchly when people:

    A) misrepresent me or things I have said
    B) misrepresent my trades
    C) insinuate that I am somehow on the take
    D) insinuate I have a position other than what I do have and disclosed
    E) assume I let my investment influence what I write
    F) accuse me of any fraudulent, unethical, or illegal activities.
    G) accuse me of being someone other than I am
    H) accuse me of posting anywhere on message boards.
    Oct 8, 2015. 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena CEO Retires- What It Means For The Equity [View article]

    Welcome to a taste of my (just maybe) you can have an appreciation for what I go through every day and why I can get a bit defensive.

    Honest discussion and critical opinion have no place in the minds of some.

    Zay... While I have not seen walshers investment statements, I can say that it is a pretty safe assumption that he is long the equity.
    Oct 8, 2015. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Icahn Gets $170 Million Worth Of Bonds - What's Next [View article]

    Huh? Look at the volume. This stock could be bought and sold at a whim. He could also use forward purchase contracts to control price.

    Denner is not a big factor. Those that are betting on hope come up with anything to make that hope look plausible.

    Arna is not my pet. I have a very modest position in it.

    Shorts... Nothing out of the ordinary. Shorts are part of the market. With regard to vivus, a high short position should be expected because of the convert bonds. Read my previous articles on it.

    If you stop a moment and think about it, Icahn can now go short 11.2 million shares at any time with relative safety because he now holds a bunch of converts. If h wanted he could yo-yo a short trade for a few years.
    Oct 8, 2015. 06:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment