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Spencer Osborne  

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  • EnteroMedics - Do Not Expect Delisting [View article]

    The average is about 10% over trial period. The weight loss levels out
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics - Do Not Expect Delisting [View article]

    I do not discuss the number of shares I own. It only serves to become a lightening rod.

    I never buy into a company simply to say I am long. If I buy in, I buy in for the purpose of a profitable trade. I consider this equity highly speculative, so my stake is sized appropriately in that light.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Gains Market Share With Contrave Again [View article]

    The Merck connection is intriguing. I think that we hear something quite soon
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Assessing Belviq In South Korea [View article]

    WOW!!!!! I think I need to restart my computer. A person that actually offers up discussion points that relate to the article and are not deflection to another issue. I made your post an "Authors Pick".

    I think that the vanity market will have to be a driver early on. It takes a while to get insurance on the national plan there.

    I hope they can get a better performance from Ildong than eisai
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics - Do Not Expect Delisting [View article]

    Your point is that you look foolish with the comment you made. Glad to see you agree that you looked foolish. You finally got something correct!

    i understand more about this than you could ever hope to in 7 lifetimes.

    You can not even put your projections into words.
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics - Do Not Expect Delisting [View article]

    Two to three minutes after article is published you have this comment. Now read the article and see just how foolish the comment you made is.
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Gains Market Share With Contrave Again [View article]

    Look at vivus debt....look at vivus obligation for $200 million CVOT study
    Mar 30, 2015. 05:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Gains Market Share With Contrave Again [View article]

    Actavis is beating up on a very weak Vivus because it is a pretty easy fight. Vivus lacks financial strength

    Going after Orexigen is not as easy of a fight, because they would be chasing Takeda as well.

    Certainly Takeda does not have to pay to help defend. Takeda has every right to say, "ahhhh forget about the hundred million dollars we put into this drug....let Actavis have it"

    Takeda is a partner with skin in the game
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flatter Than Needed - Q1 Revenue Miss Likely [View article]

    In searching the comments above, I do not really see a valid question. Was it this post?

    "@almolyd - good Q. I'm not sure why you posed a valid question to SO and no response and yet the negative banter he gets barraged with gets priority in terms of his attention over stuff like this. See my Q posed to SO above to know what I'm saying. Where's there's smoke there's fire. Some is fishy I must say. Clarification around motives and interest is needed and should and most likely will be had. I'll leave it at that."

    I answered the question of what is next.

    Is it this one?

    "Dude why attack. Where's the integrity in getting attacked in an article over and over and attacking back over and over. The guy has a valid point. If you weren't doing this mainly for clicks why respond to what you perceive as attacks every time. Man it gets old. I think you enjoy the attention and negative banter. Your replies to them are generally much longer vs responses to intellectual questions.
    Can you adequately respond to this with intellect and reasoning as to why you take credence in what is perceived as being bashed and bashing back. Thx"

    I do not think I said anyone bashes.

    I respond to pretty much every comment that poses a question. Sometimes they come and I miss a few. I eventually get to them.
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flatter Than Needed - Q1 Revenue Miss Likely [View article]

    You do not poke holes. You speak in generalities.

    You, with figments in your imagination, think you proved something. You did not.

    I did not ask you to prov the FDA would lay down a hammer. I asked you when you thought it would happen and what you thought they would do. You avoided a timeline and said it could be "anything shy of pulling the drug"

    Saying " laying down the hammer" mpliesvsevere action yet you do not want to quantify. You are assuming something. Be specific on what it is and when you feel it will happen.

    You say, "you know it's coming and coming hard"

    What is "it" in your opinion and when is "it coming" in your opinion?

    Funding for arena.....

    You call it speculation when it is really simple math. The company themselves state they will bring in a baseline of $36 million and will spend at least $120 million. They have $200 million ($20 million of which belongs to Eisai). Companies doing clinical trials have to keep a balance and have a cushion. For arena that number is about $100 million. A little math and deduction (not speculation) is all that is needed here.

    So here we are. If this is going to advance you need to participate.

    1. What do you feel the severe penalty for orexigen will be?
    2. What timeframe will this heavy hammer that hits hard come down?
    3. Do you agree that arena has a bit over $200 million in cash?
    4. Do you agree that the company has guided to a base revenue of about $36 million or so?
    5. Do you agree that arena guided to spending north if $120 million?
    6. Do you agree that the company needs to maintain a cash balance of about $100 million to keep clinical trials going and avoid a "going concern" notice from its accounting firm?
    7. Do you agree that $20 million of the cash ine longs to Eisai?
    8. Do you believe that the smoking trial will not start enrolling until q3?
    9. Do you believe that Eisai alread owns the smoking indication in all territories under agreement for Belviq?
    10. Do you agree that Ildong owns South Korea rights already for smoking in South Korea if that is the first additional indication for Belviq?
    11. Do you agree that CY and Teva already have rights?
    12. If smoking is already tied up pretty much everywhere, where will these new partners you speak if come from? There are not many counties left where Belviq is not partnered.
    13. Do you agree that cash will be needed from some source in 12 to 18 months?
    14. If you do not agree with that timeframe as a need for cash, what is the timeframe you see? Do not use generalities. Be specific. Cash flow is easy to look at.
    15. A need for cash does not automatically mean dilution. It could happen with added revenue, a loan, or cutting costs.
    16. You say sales can increase. By how much would they need to increase to stave off a need for cash from other methods? Certainly sales can increase. They need to increase by a factor of 5 to do the trick. What do you think will drive that?

    These are pretty simple questions. You say I "speculate", but I do smart speculation with numbers to show my work. You speculate with huge generalities and fear getting specific.

    Lastly......again.....I do not write for a living. It is pretty much a hobby to me. The monies received writing are a very, very,, very small percentage of my income. Clicks do not really matter to me.
    Mar 30, 2015. 07:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Gains Market Share With Contrave Again [View article]

    I did not say the patents themselves were stronger. Have a deep pocket partner offers strength. Vivus, without a partner is easier to challenge
    Mar 30, 2015. 07:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flatter Than Needed - Q1 Revenue Miss Likely [View article]

    What question?
    Mar 30, 2015. 07:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flatter Than Needed - Q1 Revenue Miss Likely [View article]

    By the way....south korea...

    IlDong says $27 million in sales this year.

    Net sales will be less than that.

    Arena will get 35% of net sales

    If net sales are half, arena gets 35% of $13.5 million. That would be $4.7 million.

    The Ildong projection back in 2012 was about $27 million.

    Now, having made an initial projection in 2012, and having seen the struggles since then, do you think that Ildong will hit its estimates?

    I maintain my projection of $2 million to $3million to arena on its cut of net sakes
    Mar 29, 2015. 10:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flatter Than Needed - Q1 Revenue Miss Likely [View article]

    1. I am already in the motley network. I simply do not write there.

    2. I make my projections early each year for the year. Last year I outlined sales quite early and sales tracked to what I outlined. Go look.

    3. My projection on South Korea was made long ago. S Korea revenue from sales of Belviq to arena will be $2 million to $3 million.

    Cash need in 12 to 18 months.....

    You jumped, once again, to an irrational conclusion based on figments of your imagination. Bi said cash will be needed in 12 to 18 months. You made an assumption that I am claiming dilution. I have covered this issue in the past. Once again, your lack of research into what I have stated has bitten you in the posterior.

    Cash will be needed. It can come from a loan (unlikely in my opinion), a partnership deal, or dilution.b arena has indicated a few times that it does not want to partner anything in the pipeline until after phase 2 trials are complete. None of these phase 2 trials will happen in the next 12 to 18 months. Thus, a partnership deal in the timeframe where the company needs cash is unlikely. They could partner early, but would leave money in the table if they did.

    Dilution is the most likely situation. I do not think it is evil. In fact, I would rather that they raised $200 million last time. The problem is that the street was not eager to buy up $100 million. How do I know this? Because the option on additional shares was not bought the last time around.

    Now, do you have something meaningful to discuss?

    We can close your wasteful discussion about my need for money. I do not need it.

    We can close the wasteful discussion about the FDA and Contrave. You refuse to be specific.

    We can close the wasteful discussion about motley fool. No XM already in their network and do not submit articles there.

    We can close the wasteful discussion about clicks. Repeat clicks do not matter.

    We can close the wasteful discussion about safety and efficacy. It is established that these can not and should not be considered in a vacuum.

    This leaves us with the revenue that you refuse to get specific on. Unless you get specific, there is not much to discuss.

    What I have pretty much demonstrated here is that any discussion with you is wasteful because you do not want to get down to brass tacks, avoid any specifics, and want to shift the discussion from things that matter to just about anything else. That being said, the discussion is quite useful to some readers in that they can see the generalities debate in a very transparent manner.

    Mar 29, 2015. 09:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flatter Than Needed - Q1 Revenue Miss Likely [View article]

    You continue to avoid the questions.

    You have your opinion on the FDA. We know your opinion. It would appear that discussion on that point is moot because you do not want to quantify your stance.

    You say additional funding is an unknown. WHAT? If you take an hour and look at what they have for cash, what they project to spend, and what the revenue projects to you will see that cash is needed somewhere in the next 12 to 18 months. It is simple math.

    You say I can not get revenue right. YOU ARE WRONG. Look at my projectins ever since the launch of Belviq. I have pegged the revenue story with uncanny accuracy. You can choose to pretend that I did not, but you would be putting your head into the sand.

    You say the conversation is dragging out for clicks.....Laughable. As far as I am aware the unique click happens ONCE. you can then click to your hearts content after that and it means NOTHING. Further, the meager revenue that writing brings is simply not worth chasing. If I wanted to make money on this and it was my motivation, I would go to Motley and get more.

    Your assessment that I need the money is also off base. Childish as well. Writing is a hobby for me. I make a living elsewhere.

    You have not put a couple of dollars in my bank account. You may believe you have, but I have already demonstrated that your assumption are not worth the brain energy used to produce them.

    I will write about whatever I want. You have no need to read what I write, nor to comment.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment