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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena: Belviq Sales Show Modest Gain - Time To Assess 2015 Expectations? [View article]
    Caution flag is yellow
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Show Modest Gain - Time To Assess 2015 Expectations? [View article]
    Ether all.....

    Last week it stated quite clearly that the pace seen last weekend needed to be maintained. It was not.

    Read last weeks piece and tell me how you interpret it to be gold falling from heaven.

    Last week I presented the facts. Ths week I presented the facts.
    Feb 23, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Show Modest Gain - Time To Assess 2015 Expectations? [View article]
    Counter....
    What the stock was in 2000 is not Germaine to the discussion. What is topical is the $35 million that the street wants to see in BELVIQ revenue in 2015, and whether or not that number can be hit. The year 2000 is meaningless
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Show Modest Gain - Time To Assess 2015 Expectations? [View article]
    Sb.....

    It may seem fantastic, but it is well shy of what is needed. Thus, it is not really fantastic. The street is looking for $35 million in BELVIQ revenue. The current pace is $20 to $25 million. Therein lies the problem.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Show Modest Gain - Time To Assess 2015 Expectations? [View article]
    Josh....

    In addition....

    I checked your comments. You "questioning my motives" was brought up on someone else's article. How is it you can accuse me of not answering you when the comments on this article are the first ones directed to me. Why would you pose a question to me on someone else's article.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Show Modest Gain - Time To Assess 2015 Expectations? [View article]
    Josh....

    1. I do not write for a living. I fit it in as best I can.

    2. Typically I write a piece within 24 hours of getting the data.

    3. The data is not always available on Friday.

    4. I do not use symphony. If you want to understand why, look at my instablogs. Several of them cover the reason why.

    5. I do not control when SA publishes a piece.

    6. I have no alterior motive. There are some that like to think that there is a motive, but my history of 2 years covering this stock shows that I cover it in a very consistent manner.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Show Modest Gain - Time To Assess 2015 Expectations? [View article]
    Josh....

    I report every week. Last week, IMS numbers were not available until Tuesday. I use IMS because it ties back to revenue. If you look, you will see that on Wednesday my article was published.


    http://seekingalpha.co...

    It would appear that you "conveniently" left out the fact that I have indeed covered every week. The only exceptions would be if I was on a vacation. Are you "conveniently" leaving out all the facts?

    I am not trying to be a wise guy. When I get the data, I publish it. Each week. If you look at my article history you will see that your assumption that I leave out good weeks is well off base
    Feb 23, 2015. 01:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Scripts Spike - Maintaining This Trajectory Important [View article]
    vito.....

    To say diet and exercise do not work is contributing to a substantial lie.

    PROPER DIET and PROPER EXERCISE do work.

    A doctor typically tells people what is needed, but people do not listen. Eating a McChicken instead of a big mac is not proper diet, and walking three flights of stairs instead of riding the elevator is not proper exercise.

    yes, these pills reduce appetite, and thus work to an extent. However, if people do not get PROPER in diet and exercise, they will plateau. Going from a 5,000 caloie diet to a 4,000 calorie diet will deliver weight loss, but will not get someone to desired weight levels.
    Feb 21, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen's Contrave Sales Recover - Investors Should Look To Europe [View article]
    EIS.....

    How do you look at refills? Are you looking at it in a manner that removes the noise? remember, front end growth that is at a higher trajectory will make refills look low. Might I suggest taking the Refills of the current week as a percentage of the TRx from 4, 8, and 12 weeks ago. If one does this, you remove noise. In doing this you will see that Contrave is slighly below the averages presented by Belviq at a similar place in its own launch.

    "Belviq reaches new high script volume"

    Interesting choice there. Were you aware that Contrave reached a new high?

    Personally, I think that Belviq carries the most mild side effect profile, but also demonstrates the most modest weigh loss.
    Feb 21, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Scripts Spike - Maintaining This Trajectory Important [View article]
    While it is flattering that you allow so much of your life to be Influenced by my actions, I can assure you that the flattery is nit reciprocated. I do appreciate the free rent in your head though.
    Feb 20, 2015. 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Scripts Spike - Maintaining This Trajectory Important [View article]
    Jakes...

    Indeed there is less stigma with extra pounds than there used to be.

    The price hurdle was big. This has been demonstrated in scientific studies. I wrote about it 2 years ago. The Contrave launch proved that price was a factor.

    There are people that simply peak in their weight loss and lose faith. They are not the core market that these drugs are designed for. There are those with success as well.

    People will spend $50 a month with relative ease
    Feb 20, 2015. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Scripts Spike - Maintaining This Trajectory Important [View article]
    Jakes....

    New price is just 3 weeks old. Refills will just now be showing through.

    Ads have actually slowed down in the past couple of weeks. I track the ads daily and write up a piece on advertising once a month.

    Peak weightloss season is March, April, and may. In mud June sale level off.

    Yes, price was an issue. Average person was on belviq for 2 months.

    I chart TRX NRx and refills. I track the comps of these. I look for trends and whether performance is working. Last week each of about a dozen indicators I track were up. The caution flag can come in, but sales need to go up by 4 figures a week moving forward.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen's Contrave Sales Recover - Investors Should Look To Europe [View article]
    Vito...

    Contrave is between $45 and $70

    Belviq is $75 for many...up to $150 if you qualify for Medicaid.

    Qsymia is about $100 to $120
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen's Contrave Sales Recover - Investors Should Look To Europe [View article]
    Mojo....

    The European market is a bit smaller than the U.S. market. That is why it means nearly double. Addressable market are those that qualify for the drug according to its label.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen's Contrave Sales Recover - Investors Should Look To Europe [View article]
    Investing....

    Meeting in March.

    There were only two countries against Contrave with CHMP and 31 for. In my opinion the "protesters" will amount to mild noise and will not get another 15 countries to switch to a "no" stance.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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