Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Spencer Osborne  

View Spencer Osborne's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Youngevity Reports Earnings - I Still Like The Coffee Segment [View article]

    It is just in the last year that they went vertical in coffee. They now own plantations, processing, etc.
    Nov 19, 2015. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    Try not to put words into my mouth. It makes the discussion take much longer
    Nov 19, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    Read what the company has said this year. They fully accepted that the launch was not what was expected.

    My position is that the severe challenges this comosny faces will be crystal clear by q2 of 2016

    You think that the market cap will be 6 times higher by then? Good luck
    Nov 19, 2015. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    Considering that they are going to do a reverse split, you better be right.

    Company will not be $1.20 in the next three months when you adjust as if the split never happened.
    Nov 19, 2015. 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    In a word yes. The board agreed by the way. Bonuses restructured and CEO gone
    Nov 19, 2015. 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Youngevity Reports Earnings - I Still Like The Coffee Segment [View article]

    I think a certain point needs to be brought into a bit more focus

    Poster 11898251 essentially asserted that The volume of coffee sold did not rise.

    A little simple math will allow us to arrive at a logical conclusion.

    A year ago coffee was selling for $2.05 per pound. The company did $6.3 million in revenue

    Ths year coffee is at $1.13. The company did $4.3 million in revenue.

    A few assumptions can be drawn from that and unfortunately for poster 11898251, none of them help his agenda.

    The price of coffee went down 45%

    Revenue went down 32%

    The delta could mean that more pounds of coffee were sold. Poster 11898251 does not like that

    The data could mean the retail coffee sales (which have better margins). I suspect poster 11898251 will not like that either.

    The data could mean that Ygyi was able to command prices that are much better than everyone in the business. He won't like that either

    For readers the lesson is this. When people try to spin things it can be easily exposed. Stick to facts, data, and a realistic thought process and people can not spin their way out of it.
    Nov 18, 2015. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Youngevity Reports Earnings - I Still Like The Coffee Segment [View article]

    The market can be a frustrating place. This company is not without its challenges. Personally i see the direct selling showing stability while the coffee division ramps up. I like the coffee aspect. When any commodity gets to rock bottom prices I like to look within that space. Who is positioning themselves to benefit from prices moving up? There is opportunity at those times.
    Nov 18, 2015. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Youngevity Reports Earnings - I Still Like The Coffee Segment [View article]

    "They barely turned a profit even when bean prices were high"

    It is only in the past year that the company went vertical in its coffee division. This encompassed buying plantaitions, acquiring rights, getting a drying and processing operation up and running, etc. I would not expect a division that is just beginning these things to be a big profit maker.

    "In fact, historically, the coffee division has always been in the red."

    Not true. I think you need to go back through the financials. You will find a quarter where it was not in the red.

    "Your analysis is way, way off base."

    You are entitled to your opinion. I will trust my analysis more-so than some anonymous guy that calls himself "11898251"

    "You can't extrapolate pounds sold based on revenue reported"

    Actually anything can be extrapolated. What I did was provide a very oversimplified example of the business. I did that so that the basic point could be easily seen by even the most novice investors. Apparently I did not simplify it enough. If your assertion is that the pounds of coffee went down from last year to this year, then your assertion is flat out wrong.

    "If YGYI actually reported an increase in pounds sold that would be one thing, but they didn't."

    They did not have to report it. It is demonstrated in the numbers in a most basic sense. I think that the point you are trying to argue falls very flat.

    "It's pure speculation."

    No, it is not pure speculation. It is an educated analysis of the markets and the numbers. The company discloses that the price in the commodity impacted the numbers. Is your assertion that the commodity price was not the impact? If you are going to argue that, then you must be assuming that they commanded a much better price per pound on coffee than everyone else. This is pretty simple and is not the "wild speculation" that you attempt to portray.

    The company stated, " The coffee business revenue was lower by over $2 million substantially due to price decreases of the green coffee in the commodities market."

    Your spin holds no water. We know commodity prices have been nearly cut in half. We know that revenue from coffee went down about 33%. Do you see how one can use some simple logic to arrive at increased pounds?

    "As for management, they have failed to deliver shareholder value (and significant profits) for years, while running this pyramid scheme and hawking deceptively advertised snakeoil products like Tangy Tangerine (their main revenue driver). "

    You have an opinion. You seem to have exposed that you have an axe to grind with direct selling. Perhaps that mentality has jaded you in such a manner that it has carried over into other aspects of assessing things.

    "They are completely undeserving of even the faintest praise."

    Again, your opinion. You can afford to say these things because you hide under a veil of anonymity (or at least you may think you do). I suspect the rhetoric you are saying here would not be the same if you put your name to it.

    So here is where we are.

    1. We established that growth phases bring about potential profits and can be challenging to current numbers.

    2. We established that commodity prices fluctuate

    3. We established that pounds of coffee moved had to have increased by some simple math

    4. We have established that you need to look at the financials again in assessing whether the coffee division has ever turned a profit.

    5. We have established that you seem to not like direct selling.

    6. We have established that you consider certain things "snake oil"

    7. We have established that you throw around words like pyramid scheme and perhaps do not understand the definition of such.

    8. We have established that your anonymity (or at least your perception that you are anonymous) gives you false courage.

    9. We have established that your comment history shows that you have some sort of axe to grind.

    So, here we are.

    Do you think that expansion in a sector when prices of the commodity are at rock bottom will allow the benefit oof bigger growth as commodity prices move up?

    Do you think that seeing positive traction in sales on the retail channel is a good sign or a bad sign?

    Do you think it is good or bad that companies like Dunkin are using YGYI beans?

    We can have a meaningful dialogue if you can set aside your preconceived notions and look at things in a rational manner. Otherwise, this will be like having a conversation with a dog sitter that gets the bulk of their daily intellectual conversation in the form of barks and yelps.
    Nov 18, 2015. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Youngevity Reports Earnings - I Still Like The Coffee Segment [View article]

    Thank you for the kind words. I try to keep things in the realm of reality. No hype, no bash, just a real persons look at something.

    With coffee prices at an all time low, interesting plays are out there. This, in my opinion, is an interesting play.
    Nov 18, 2015. 02:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    The critical thing in weight loss is a change in lifestyle and keeping active enough. None of these treatments will carry a lasting result if the patient is not dedicated to making some severe lifestyle changes.

    The biggest hurdle is lifestyle change, and proponents of any of these weight loss products actually hinder the process more than help it. Below is a comment I see very often from folks invested in any or all of these companies:

    "Diet and Exercise do not work"

    That type of statement is not only flat out wrong, it is also hampering progress even when taking these pills or using these devices

    PROPER DIET and PROPER EXERCISE work very well for most. The problem is that we carry a mentality that drinking a diet coke, a jr. burger and a small fry is proper diet and we get to many thinking walking 2 flights of stairs is proper exercise level.

    There are some people that are somewhat predisposed to higher weight. There are many more that are at higher weight because of their choices in diet, etc. The core issue is getting onto a healthy diet with a proper amount of food intake.

    Nov 18, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]
    Worthless Pennies.....

    I have reviewed it and know that dynamic. If the payment turns out top be shares, the impact is essentially the same. The bond holder winds up with this company in its hands. I was trying to avoid such semantics. If the company can not repay this note, it is essentially worthless and will wind up being in the hands of the debt holder anyway. The ONLY way the average shareholder has a prayer in this is cash. The lack of cash, and paying instead with shares means that the train has derailed.

    Can ETRM be on the block for a sale? Yes That being said, the leverage position of management in this situation is about as poor as it gets. This cash situation and a disastrous launch have put this company in a very, very, very difficult place.
    Nov 18, 2015. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    Whether or not I am invested into a company does not dictate whether or not i write about it.

    As it happens, I have been covering the anti-obesity space for a few years. When you cover a space you cover many companies.

    I cover Arena, Vivus, Orexigen, Novo Nordisk (just entered the sector), Rhythm (not even a public company yet), Zafgen (no drug on the marklet yet and in trials).

    Perhaps your question (or anger) should be directed elsewhere. You have the likes of Kevin Porter who just a year ago touted ETRM (at a much higher price) on articles about Vivus, Arena, and Orexigen.

    When you commented on my last article, I posed some questions to you. Perhaps you missed them, or perhaps you are trying to ignore them. I will ask again and see if I have any better luck.

    Heather, how many procedures do you think are needed to fund operations?

    Heather, how many procedures are needed to service the debt?

    Heather, how many procedures are needed to pay the $25 million in principal 24 months from now?

    Heather, what happens if the company is unable to pay off the bonds 24 months from now?

    Heather, what happens to shareholders if the bonds can not be paid off?

    Heather, how much revenue do you think is good in Q4 of this year?

    Heather, how much revenue do you think is good in Q1 of 2016?

    Heather, how much revenue do you think will be good in Q2 of 2016?

    Heather, do you feel that the street will be able to gauge the likelihood of the ability to pay off these bonds by the numbers reported in Q2 of 2016?

    These are serious questions that smart investors want to discuss. If you would like to discuss such things, there are many here, including myself, that would embrace it. If you are here to do a drive-by shooting because you are mad, then please save us all some time and simply avoid such things.
    Nov 18, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    "Everyone's thrust should be taken and understood."

    I agree

    "To agree or disagree is an option I will never give away."

    I agree and will add to it. I will never stomach insinuations that I am engaging in criminal activity by "timing" articles to manipulate or by not being honest and disclosing my interests.

    I have no issue discussing dynamics of a company, data, numbers, etc. There are opposing views on just about anything. I get it. I have a very big issue when untrue and unfounded assertions get cast in my direction. I think in many ways that the anonymity provided to many let's them make statements that simply should not be made.

    Further compounding things is when people that do not like a stance find any reason to scream that I should not write.

    If I have shares and am critical, people say that I must only have a couple of shares.

    If I have shares and am positive, people say that I am only positive because I have shares.

    If I do not have shares and am critical people say I must be working for hedge funds

    If I do not have shares and am positive people say I must be working for hedge funds.

    Meanwhile, my position or non-position in a company does not dictate what I write. There are times to be critical and there are times to be positive. I do not let my investment status dictate what I write.
    Nov 18, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    Reverse splits are typically not viewed in a good light. More often than not they are a move of desperation by a company and the issues that brought about the need to have a reverse split are not solved by enacting it.
    In most cases, after a reverse split, the price per share of the equity depreciates again.

    The technology does have some potential value. The problem is that it is in the hands of a team that can not really bring it to reality. Every move that current management makes is borne out of poor leverage. The company has poor leverage because it can not afford to bring the technology to the forefront. Compounding the issue is time working against them. There is now a balloon device on the market and the market continues to move.

    One issue is that investors need to invest in this company in order to invest in the device.

    An opposite example of this would be Corona Beer. It is widely thought of as skunk beer, but it flies off of the shelves because the company behind it is doing the right things.

    I support veterans in many ways because I am a veteran myself.

    My stance on this device has been consistent. It has a niche. The weight loss provided is not vastly superior to pills and very inferior to full gastric surgical procedures.

    AACE guidelines show the treatment path, and while Vbloc is not yet listed in it, we can place it in there with what we know. The system moves along these lines

    Step 1 - Proper diet and exercise
    Step 2 - Stringent lifestyle modification
    Step 3 - Pills or injections (a patient may need to try 5 different meds)
    Step 4 - Device therapy such as vbloc or balloon
    step 5 - surgery

    My issue is that vbloc is in a niche and getting to the point where a doctor will use this option is lengthy. Essentially it is relegated to those that are left after pills do not work.
    Nov 18, 2015. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    "Because others read these posts. Some of them are shorter term then I."

    So you are saying that you are insinuating that I am engaging in criminal activity (purposefully trying to manipulate an equity) because others read these posts?

    You agreed with my numbers and assumptions yet find the timing of the article a question mark? WOW!
    Nov 18, 2015. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment