Seeking Alpha

Spencer Osborne

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Spencer Osborne's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia [View article]
    Pax....

    Cheers. In the past, the numbers would be down for the entire second half of the year. Belviq is standing up to the seasonality better than Qsymia thus far.

    Rhode Island! I spend a great deal of time there, as it is right around the corner from me.
    Aug 15 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    Novel....

    Doctors are already prescribing it.

    I really do not care about which is more effective as much as I care about which can be monetized the best. I am invested in a company and invested to see my portfolio appreciate.

    I can deal with it very nicely.

    My big question on Bel Phen is how they monetize it. That should be your big question as well. I suggest that you model it.
    Aug 15 03:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    z....

    Since launch there have been 988 adverse events reported on Qsymia. During that time the results are as follows

    Q4 of 2012 - 2
    Q1 of 2013 - 12
    Q2 of 2013 - 10
    Q3 of 2013 - 11
    Q4 of 2014 - 954

    As i stated in my article, "It should also be understood that an adverse event may take months to show itself. What I am presenting here is a ratio of reported adverse events in a given period vs. the reported scripts sold in the same period." You can take exception to the methodology in a classy manner, or one that is juvenile, sophomoric, and lacking class. You did not choose the classy manner. Despite your manner, I have taken the time to collect the data as if you had requested it in a decent and respectful way.

    The number of scripts in the given period was about 380,000. Bear in mind, 124,000 of that came in Q4 of 2013.

    Thus....We have 988 adverse events in 380,000 scripts. That would bring the levels down to 0.26% over the entire period. The bigger question is this. What drove Qsymia to see such a large increase in the reporting of adverse events? The next natural question is this. Qsymia was, in theory, designed to be a extended use drug....meaning that people could be on it indefinitely. Is there something about this drug that brings about adverse events a year into using it?

    Try to have a good day. Try to be a bit kinder. Try not to get lost in the details.
    Aug 15 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    Z.....

    I have looked at them since inception.

    This past quarter saw the number of adverse events go up substantially for Qsymia in particular. In q3 there were about a dozen. In q4 there were 954.

    Something is happening at a given point.

    If you would like these numbers since inception you could simply ask.

    Instead, you come with insults. That tells us what we need to know about your character.

    The bottom line is that something with regard to Qsymia happened at the tone year mark that was much different than we had seen in previous quarters. Tell you what....I will give you your numbers in the next hour or so....despite your calling names...there is a higher road you know.
    Aug 15 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    counterpoint.....

    1. As yet there have been no reported adverse events relating to prolactin. A listed possible side effect is different than an FDA reported adverse event.

    2. Why on earth would I break down all possible adverse reactions. People can read the labels. If some become very prevalent, it may be worth a discussion and perhaps even an article....but not at this stage

    3. The dose of Belviq is typically twice per day, but the patient and doctor will arrive at the frequency of use. There have been reports of people taking it only once per day and seeing success. Is once per day better....yep. Is twice per dat the end of the world? nope.

    4. Serotonin is a listed possible issue. In Q4 serotonin Syndrome was listed 4 or 5 times. You can see the adverse events for Belviq here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    5. Belviq is more expensive. I coverered the Duke University Study almost a month and a half ago when it was first published. Most people did not pick up on it tiol weeks later when it was on television see below:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    6. Contrave is perceived to be in the middle of Qsymia and Belviq in both safety and efficacy.

    Hope all of this helps.
    Aug 15 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    LB.....

    How am I downplaying Arena's positive?

    I simply deal with data and try to have a very realistic opinion. I do not wave pom-poms and get all giddy about things.
    Aug 15 01:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    msapp....

    I would not consider pregnancy an adverse event in the context of FDA adverse events. Further, any weight loss drug should be avoided when someone is attempting to get, or already is pregnant.

    There is a difference between side effects and reported adverse events.

    There is no magic pill here. One drug or the other may be appropriate for a specific patient for any number of reasons.

    If your concern is memory, concentration, etc, then Belviq is not immune to these types of effects in some people as well.

    http://bit.ly/1qcI5jr
    Aug 15 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    Vito....

    the term "Phentermine" came up 76 times. There were probably between 400,000 and 500,000 scripts in that quarter.
    Aug 15 11:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    Readers,

    I took the time to query out the adverse events for Belviq. I published it on my Instablog

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 15 11:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    Vito....

    If I get some extra time I may go through that. It can be a very long process.
    Aug 15 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    sb....

    No position in Orex
    Aug 15 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Data: Good News For One Anti-Obesity Company, Not So Good For Another [View article]
    Sp500....

    Oh my God! Do we really need to go down the path of this type of minutia? Really? No....Really!

    1. One drug may be 100 times more effective than the other. The results depend on the patient.

    2. I was speaking in very general terms. The perception is that Qsymia is more effective. Deal with it. There is a perception that Belviq is safer. Deal with it.

    When will the over-passionate investors look at the meat and potato's of an article rather than looking at some innocuous segment that really is meaningless in terms of the point being made
    Aug 15 09:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    webmind....

    Think about this.

    Yahoo made and makes money by giving placement to companies like SA, Motley Fool, The Street, etc. Yahoo did not dump SA. Why would the company give up on a lucrative and easy revenue stream. SA made the decision to end its relationship with Yahoo.
    Aug 13 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Inks Deal For Afrezza - Can Still See Stormy Days Ahead [View article]
    Mr....

    It is a tricky thing. Mannkind, with an approved drug, a partner, and an anticipated launch will be shifting from a pure spec play that enjoys higher valuations to one that now has a fundamental competent that deals with more reality.

    Pipeline carries potential value and definite cost. Valuation of a pipline is speculative valuations. At this stage it needs to be quite conservative. Technology can carry potential value, but in many ways it is speculative by nature just like the pipeline
    Aug 13 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Inks Deal For Afrezza - Can Still See Stormy Days Ahead [View article]
    MR....

    Not sure who you are addressing your comment to. If it was me, please note that I was speaking of net sales and not gross sales and was speaking in very general terms. I agree with what you are saying in terms of net not equalling profit.

    Whether a PE multiple of 30 is appropriate is a matter of debate I am sure. Some would argue that 20 is appropriate.

    What I was attempting to do was get the other poster to a point of realistic thinking a step at a time. You shortened the process. Thank You

    Here we are at a $3 billion market cap with no earnings.

    Your $140 million multiplied by a PE of 20 brings us to $2.8 billion....Where the equity currently sits. In concept, anything above the current levels is taking future earnings (which could take 2 to 3 years to get into the $1 billion in net sales range)

    I fully agree that expectations need to be carefully managed. This is a critical time for shareholders. I would venture to say that many have pie in the sky expectations right now. That is unfortunate. At this stage it can easily be argued that this equity is over-valued. The argument that it is undervalued is simply not as strong and is reliant on speculation that big numbers will come quickly.

    Aug 12 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
6,862 Comments
5,293 Likes