Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Spencer Osborne  

View Spencer Osborne's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    yossi....

    The script number for the week ending January 10th will be reported on the 17th.

    I do not see the first week of the new year being compelling for script numbers to get traction.
    Dec 17, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    arenanomics....

    I do cover Contrave, but not to the extent I cover Arena. I have a few articles already up you may be interested in
    Dec 17, 2013. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    arena....

    Last weeks script article was not accepted for publication byu Seeking Alpha. It was posted in my Instablog section. You can get notifications of instablogs by following me on SA (if I am not mistaken).

    The link to the instablog is:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    You can also access all instablog posts by clicking on my icon and following the lik to my instablog.

    Catalyst timing is pretty much a guessing game at this point, though I believ that the scripts will start to show traction on the data reported January 17th
    Dec 17, 2013. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    yossi....

    I agree that they need to shift gears and get television ads up. I think it is better to happen sooner rather than later.

    I think that the script report beginning the third week in January (sales for the week ending the 10th) will be the beginnings of a sign of traction
    Dec 17, 2013. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    yossi....

    What we need to consider is that if someone is not a responder to Belviq, then why should they simply not try phen?

    If Belviq costs you $150 and does not work, would you try phen alone at about $15 or try Belviq combined with Phen at $165?

    This is the issue.

    If Belviq works, that bis great.

    If it does not, then some other path may be the way to go....perhaps phen alone, then bnelviq with phen.
    Dec 17, 2013. 03:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    NS....

    There is no schedule at all, and very few hints as to when this may happen. Most drug companies wait 6 months at a minimum before any television ads. My thinking is that Eisai will want to move forward rather quickly if possible. They added sales force, and they likely want to see sales escalate when weight loss is at its peak in the annual cycle....thus, that would be sooner rather than later in my opinion.
    Dec 17, 2013. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    Yossi....

    The point is that the concept of the combo is sound....I get that...what we need to see, as investors, is how the company can make money from it.

    I think if they can combine the two into a pill they have potential to do well with it. If it a separate script for phen, it does not make Arena very much money...
    Dec 17, 2013. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    yossi....

    If a doc writes a script for Belviq, and a script for Phen, then neither Arena nor Eisai will profit from it.

    Yes, there is good potential in the combo, but we need to see how it will be implemented from a business standpoint.

    Not to be a wiseguy, but Belviq in combination with 10 miles on a treadmill has awesome results, yet Arena will not profit from the treadmill.

    I have brought this up before as an example.

    If we assume that the "safest approach" for the patient is the best way to go about this, and that Belviq is safer than phen or Qsymia....

    step 1 - Try diet and exercise - if that does not work move to step 2

    step 2 - Try Belviq - if that does not work, move to step 3

    step 3 - try phen alone (it is cheaper, and if belviq did not work why take a more expensive combo if phen alone will deliver results) If that does not work go to step 4

    step 4 - Try Belviq plus phen - if that does not work go to step 5

    step 5 - try Qsymia

    I understand that phen should be cycled. I also know that time release phen is available on the market already, which can help address the cycling issue.

    I know that the appetite suppression has a synergistic effect in mice/rats in studies. I get that. I get the potential. From an investors standpoint, I am interested in how the combination will work to generate money for the company. Do they offer a combo drug in one pill? Are there differing doses? What is the patient profile?
    Dec 17, 2013. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    dotcom....

    Thank You for the kind words. I try to simply keep a realistic approach
    Dec 17, 2013. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq At The 6 Month Mark [View article]
    Yossi....

    The PPS is not only about script numbers, BUT....If Belviq does not sell and generate revenue, then the PPS will suffer greatly.

    The PPS could well pop with the advent of a television ad. It will require followthrough in sales to keep the PPS up.

    The apps will be a positive, but they also take time.

    I am not sure what the timing is on the EU, or what you consider soon.

    Adding countries can be a positive. I discussed that in this and previous posts

    Lorc/Phen can carry an impact....a lot depends on how they market it, and if they can profit from it.

    Cheers
    Dec 17, 2013. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales During The Holiday Week [View article]
    Dear Spencer,
    Sp500....

    Got an interesting email that seems you and Reza have some confusion happening, and rather than ask the source, you hop on a message board with a wild assumption

    I will address yours first. you say:

    "What did it for me was when he stated about 5-6 weeks back that it would take 10% week over week growth to get investors excited about Belviq. I ran those numbers. At 10% WEEKLY growth, in 3 years Eisai would have to start marketing Belviq to distant solar systems because the population of planet earth would not be able to consume enough pills to keep up with those numbers."

    I am not sure that there is a person other than you, that took what I stated to mean that scripts would go up 10% in perpetuity. The point being made is that seeing scripts move up 10% week over week would be enough to stop a slide in the immediate stock price. Earlier on, when Eisai and Arena were putting out $150 million and $200 million numbers, the week over week growth that could have put the brakes on the stock slide was 20%. As time passed, and Arena called its initial numbers hopeful aspirations, the expectations became more realistic. More realistic expectations mean that the week over week growth required to settle the stock down a bit lessened. Thus, a report of 10% week over week growth was about what it would take to stop the slide. Subsequent to that comment, the company reported, and expectations are now even more real. At this point, 5% to 8% is something that can maintain! and 10% can let it move up. Pretty simple concept if you think about it.

    As for Reza, he now is saying that Arena makes up 2.5% of my portfolio because I sold half in January. He is either being intentionally coy, lying, or simply did not do some easy research. I have stated several times that when I bought Arena it was about 10% of my portfolio. I sold half. I have stated several times that Arena now makes up about 4% to 5% of my portfolio. Bear in mind, that I have had some of my equities do extremely well. Reza is pulling 2.5% out of thin air. Then again, you have gone down the naive path of saying that I have very few shares as well. Oh...he (Reza) was looking for his lies.....

    he said I am friends with Adam F. I am not. Never met him.

    He said that I was trying to kiss up to him....never did.

    He said that my email exchange with him was for the purpose of a blog. Nope...that is a lie. The only reason the email exchange was published was because he grossly misrepresented the context of the exchange by running to a message board saying I was trying to kiss up to him.

    SP500...you seem to at least be somewhat reasonable. If I seem a bit snide, you now know why.
    Dec 16, 2013. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Officially Files FDA Application For Contrave [View article]
    Yossi.....

    Safety is a relative term. The fact of the matter is that there is a lot we do not know about Belviq. We do not even know how it works, so deeming it safer is really saying that we do not know of any issues as yet. Now....I do feel it has a superior safety profile on what is known, as do many.

    Your statement was that Qsymia was not safe for women that may become pregnant. That is not really true. It is not safe for a pregnant woman. Think about it for a moment.

    A nun may become pregnant, yet does not have any sexual relations at all. It is an extreme example, but makes the point.
    Dec 14, 2013. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Officially Files FDA Application For Contrave [View article]
    Yossi...

    I realize all of this. This is why I say that the REMS is a joke. Heck....many doctors do not follow scripting guidelines.
    Dec 13, 2013. 10:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Officially Files FDA Application For Contrave [View article]
    Yossi...

    I am well aware what the guidelines are for phen. I am also well aware that many do not follow these guidelines. It is simply a matter of following the sector, speaking to doctors, patients, etc.

    Most already know my opinion of most drugs. I do not like prescription drugs as a general rule. Nor at all possible, none enter my body.
    Dec 13, 2013. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Officially Files FDA Application For Contrave [View article]
    Yossi....

    Do you realize how many people do not cycle phen?

    Belphen still needs a viable business plan that allows arena to get revenue. A doctor scripting phen on the side does not help Belviq much.

    I am not saying there is no potential there, but is is likely not what many retail investors think it will be.....experience tells us that. Just 3 months ago a prolific arena investor (and detractor of mine) was saying sales were on a pace for $30.
    Dec 13, 2013. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
8,244 Comments
6,743 Likes