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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Gross Sales Vs. Net Sales For Arena [View instapost]

    Thank you for the kind words.

    Feb 4, 2014. 11:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    Yes, it has been discussed by Arena in the past, and most of the language is in the contract, which I have published. The first milestone comes at $250 million in NET sales. That means about $500 million in GROSS sales.

    I have stated in the past that there are 5 milestone payments. The first two are attainable, the middle one depends on if this drug can approach Blockbuster status. The last two are there, and if attained, then belviq is selling like Viagra and Eisai does not mind sharing the wealth
    Feb 4, 2014. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media's Quest For Sirius XM Rests In Evercore's Hands [View article]

    Thank god you get the deal. I am stunned by how many do not get it. I am even more stunned that many think they deserve a premium for future value twice!

    Personally, I have known for quite some time that Liberty would make a move at some point. If someone has been invested since Liberty first came on the scene, they are naive to think that this type of eventuality was not in the cards.

    These lawsuits are a dime a dozen. I could spend 5 minutes in a room with any of these firms and poke thousands of holes in their investigation. The smart firms hire people that understand the equity, and the workings of the company. I have consulted to many groups about satellite radio, but will not consult with these opportunistic firms that can't even show a basic understanding of the deal and the company. I was part of what brought down one class action suit against Sirius XM, and exposed a serial plaintiff that later removed himself from the case. I did a six part series Ruf law and serial plaintiff Greg Brockeell.

    Needless to day, if any of these firms, most of which are costing SIRI shareholders money in needless defense costs, want to move forward, they better thnk twice before using a serial plaintiff. They better also make sure that their lead plaintiff has standing and can stand u to scrutiny. I will expose it in as bright a light as possible if something is not clean. That also goes for SiriusXM and Liberty. To date, since the announcement, these companies have done things by the book. I am a shareholder in both companies. I have a pacer account, and resources at my disposal.
    Feb 4, 2014. 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    Weather can have an impact, but the clock still ticks on the quarter. There is a difference between shopping for a car and shopping for your prescription. Car sales were down 3% year over year. January is traditionally the weakest month for auto sales, where in contrast it is the strongest for weight loss. By the way....I track auto sales monthly for another investment.
    Feb 4, 2014. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    E.W. is Ellie....You can not get much more real than her.

    You stated.
    "In most cases that cost is offset by savings on food and medicines like Insulin. Sometimes substantially or entirely offset"

    Social aspects are quite common among obese. They do not go out with people because they do not feel good about themselves. Read Ellies story and you will see what i mean.
    Feb 4, 2014. 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media's Quest For Sirius XM Rests In Evercore's Hands [View article]

    Errors are made....

    Just like suing a company for something that has not even happened yet.

    You are suing SiriusXM telling them that the independent board needs to act in the best interest of shareholders.....Well.... think that they know that. If you lacked the confidence in them, you should not have invested in the company to start with. I can tell you this....this law firms knowledge of this company is blatantly lacking in my opinion. Perhaps I will swing by their offices and see exactly how little they know about this company.

    Lets's see....

    Your firm states, "Under the terms of the proposal, Liberty would acquire each Sirius XM share for 0.0760 of a new share of Liberty Media Series C common stock, valued at approximately $3.68, a paltry premium of less than three percent wrought through Liberty’s domination of SiriusXM as the Company’s majority stockholder"

    1. SiriusXM shares are not being acquired by Liberty as your firm states. This is a stock swap. SIRI shares would cease to exist. The SIRI shares would be converted to series C Liberty shares at a ratio of 0.076 shares of series C per SIRI share.

    2. The proposed stock swap happened to represent a premium of about 3% on the day the announcement was made. This is a ratio deal. If Liberty stock goes up tomorrow by $10, then the "premium" (as theoretical in nature as it is) would be much higher. The price is not the driving factor of this deal. The ownership stake in Liberty is the driving factor. If this investigating firm can not grasp this simple concept, how good do you think they will be at representing shareholders?

    Your firm states, "Sirius XM’s shares traded above the offer price as recently as December 9, 2013, less than one month prior to the announcement of the Liberty offer, and traded above $4.00 per share in mid-October 2013"

    1. Where SIRI traded at at a few points in time is not at all material. The value of SIRI shares will be based on average prices, not on peaks or valleys. The 100 day ema is at about $3.70. The 100 day EMA is at about $3.50. A brief run or dip in a stock can happen on even false news. That does not create or erode real value. The firm is being a sensationalist with quoting highs. Do you know the lows in October? $3.70. Do you know the lows in December? $3.42. Do you know where the stock closed on December 9th? $3.70.

    Your firm states, " The mean analyst price target on the investment website Yahoo! Finance was $4.60, while the median target was $4.50 and the high price target was $5.80, more than $2 above the offer price. The value of the Company’s shares has increased over 15% in the past year."

    1. Are you kidding me? Looking at analyst targets on Yahoo without reading the reports? That is what it appears to be here. Is this firm even aware of when these price targets were issued, and what the assumptions are?

    2. This deal is based on current value of SIRI and current value of LMCA. Tell these guys to go apples to apples if they are going to try to play in this game. Let's see, (going by the yahoo source) analysts have a mean price target of $176.50 and a high price target of $220 on LMCA. That is a 22% upside from the close on January 2. The SIRI upside to the mean from the close on the same day was 30%. Now consider what LMCA would be at with SIRI under its wing. The $5.80 price target was by Maxim and is based on 20x FCF. Does your firm know what that means? Do they know the timeframe that Tinker was looking at? Somehow I doubt it.

    Your firm states, "Block & Leviton’s investigation seeks to determine whether SiriusXM’s Directors breached their fiduciary duties by failing to maximize shareholder value in the proposed acquisition by Liberty and the fairness by which the Sirius XM Directors considered and approved the transaction."

    1. The transaction has not been approved.

    2. The independent directors are doing their DD now. How can they have breached their responsibility when they are still assessing the information?

    Those jumping on at this point are opportunists. Case Closed
    Feb 4, 2014. 05:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Investors Look To Eisai Quarterly Report [View article]

    Arena is in a transition from a company all about potential to one that needs to get fundamentally sound. It is not an easy transition, and many companies fail in trying to ever get to this point. It is easy for a company without a marketed prodfuct to trade high on speculation.

    Of course there will be weekly fluctuations. We all understand that. What we want to see, and what the street wants to see, is a pathway to good residual income. We want to see $30 million in sales in Q1, $40 million in Q2, $50 million in Q3, and $60 million in Q4. That would be $180 million in sales this year. That would put net sales at about $80 million. That would get Arena about $25 million.

    In pharma, $25 million is not a ton of money. This is why seeing sales increase is so important. If the street does not see residuals on their way to big quarters, this equity will suffer because of it. The performance so far is about 20% of what Eisai projected. Think about that.
    Feb 4, 2014. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    It is not that I have a feeling one way or the other. He is a very capable scientist, and that may be enough to get the job done. I think he did a good job getting the company to where it is. I think he let a lot of control out of his grasp with the Eisai deal. At this moment, the success of Arena rests mostly with Eisai, and a lot less to Arena. I am not saying he is a puppet, but he does not really control the course of the company as much as a CEO might want to.
    Feb 4, 2014. 02:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Investors Look To Eisai Quarterly Report [View article]

    I do not depress the stock price....the market does. Weekly sales are what will drive the stock at this point. It is pretty simple. Belviq is the only meaningful potential for recurring revenue right now.

    The big picture is what exactly????? Does it not include Belviq, or are we throwing that out of the window. The pipeline is potential, but there is a long way to go on that.

    How exactly do I fuel the shorts? Sorry, but I am reporting sales and outlining reasonable expectations.

    I have stated many times that Arena is somewhere in the neighborhood of 5% of my portfolio....i have not run the calculations lately.
    Feb 4, 2014. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media's Quest For Sirius XM Rests In Evercore's Hands [View article]

    I think a deal gets done. It will be a stock swap based on the current value of the equities in play (LMCA and SIRI). There will be a bunch of people that will convert the deal to a share price and conclude that the new deal is worse than the old....meanwhile, it may actiually be better. I think that SIRI will seek .080 shares of LMCC for each share of SIRI
    Feb 4, 2014. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    I think that you are well off base with that comment. I am good friends with E.W., and she will tell you that this is not the case. I realize that as an investor you "WANT" this to be the case, but it is not reality.

    You continually fail to acknowledge that getting more healthy brings about cost as well. Eating right is often MORE expensive. I can get a value meal at McDonalds for $5 bucks. Gym memberships cost money. New wardrobes cost money. Being more social costs money.

    Many insulin drugs are covered by insurance. That means they cost a lot less. Further, not everyone trying to lose weight is on insulin.

    I have shown you time and time again these things. I will tell you what. Bring me 10 names of people that have claim to have the costs offset, with documentation to demonstrate it, and I will write an article about it.

    IMIS....The average person does not agree with you at all. Look at the comments from Eisai during their call. Refill rates are a lot lower if the person is paying out of pocket. Do you know the reason for this?
    Feb 4, 2014. 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    95% of the readers are very happy with the articles written. There is a vocal group of detractors that will never say a nice word...such is life.

    I am glad that you appreciate the work. It is always great to hear a positive word.
    Feb 4, 2014. 12:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    Thank You for the kind words.

    Feb 4, 2014. 12:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    We are discussing GROSS Sales....not NET Sales.

    Gross sales were established LONG AGO at $199.50 per bottle. That is the WHOLSALE COST.

    There is a VERY DISTINCT difference between Gross and net.

    There is not a person in the discussion that is saying that NET sales is at $199.50.

    Yes, discounts, shipping, spoilage, and many other items are deducted from the gross to arrive at a net figure....and Yes, Arena is paid off of the NET. However, it is IMPOSSIBLE to get to the NET figure without first having the GROSS figure.
    Feb 4, 2014. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deeper Look At Arena Anti-Obesity Sales [View article]

    You are quite welcome. Thank you for taking the time to acknowledge it....many do not. A kind word in what is usually a sea of negativity is a good thing.
    Feb 4, 2014. 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment