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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    oldur...

    Smoking cessation can be an interesting component. It will take time to get it on the lable. The cost is still a challenge. Chantix had a high price-tag and did well...then the heart problems and lawsuits. $800 million worth. It has put a dent on all anti-smoking meds.
    Mar 17, 2014. 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    lou....

    The markets are all up today. I think you are far to focused on an SEC regulation that is not really focused on by anyone else. You are aware that there is nothing terribly new at the SEC I hope.

    SEC Website has a spotlight section. You may want to let them know that they should spotlight your thoughts.

    Spotlight» http://www.sec.gov
    Financial Reporting and Audit Task Force
    Market Structure Data and Analysis
    Microcap Fraud
    Money Market Funds
    Implementation of Dodd-Frank Act
    Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act
    Investor Advisory Committee
    Financial Crisis Enforcement Actions
    Enforcement Cooperation Program
    Insider Trading
    Ponzi Schemes
    Foreign Corrupt Practices Act
    Mar 17, 2014. 03:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Etheral...

    A model is built to establish a trend. Everyone understands that the sales flow does not track a smooth line.

    You say the data is bad. By what measure do you arrive at that conclusion?

    Is it just because you do not like it?

    Is it because you want the projections to be something different than what they are?

    Do you think that the data IMS and Symphony provide is bad?

    Do you think adjusting that data to reflect what is happening is bad?

    Do you think that the 157,000 bottles Arena shipped between launch and December 31st is bad?


    The data has portrayed the sales pace pretty closely as time has passed. You say that is bad. Okay, you are free to feel that way.

    So, lets review a few items....

    1. Eisai states that the wholesale price of Belviq is $199.50. I use $199.50 as my wholesale price in the determination of gross sales. You feel that $199.50 is bad even though that is the number that has been established for the gross sale of a bottle. You can use whatever number you would like. I will stick to the $199.50.

    2. If we have a sale to a consumer, it will be a gross sale and a net sale. Pretty simple concept.

    3. Gross sales is the overall sales of the product. Net sales is gross sales less certain costs.

    4. Scripts to bottles is part of thye reason for an adjustment. I realize that you may not understand that, but think about it a little bit. Some sales will be for 15 days (half a bottle). Some sales will be for 60 days (two bottles). Some sales will be for 90 days (three bottles). Likely there needs to be a slight adjustment upward to account for sales that are more than one bottle.

    You are just an angry person. You are angry because Eisai told you sales would be a couple of hundred million. You do not want to blame yourself for believeing that, so you will express your anger onto someone else. Ironically, you express your anger at the person that was more accurate in what the sales would be. It is okay. If you transferring your anger to me helps you "feel" better, than I am glad that I could assist.
    Mar 17, 2014. 03:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Jakes...

    Television ads are fine, but I think (much like the pre-launch hype) people are putting too much faith into something.

    I get emails and comments that ads will make sales skyrocket. It is yet another example of people being so "in love" with the equity that they invested in that they do not look at things objectively.

    When I said (at launch and in response to the Coates comment on sales) that Belviq sales would be lucky to be at $100 by Christmas, I was booed and told that I was low-balling. The sales came in at $30 million.

    When I said that we would be lucky to see weekly IMS sales break 7,000 by the end of the year, I was booed. It still has not happened.

    When I said that cumulative sales should be between $50 and $60 million by March 31st, I was booed and told that I was low-balling. Now, when it is clear that sales will be between $45 and $50 million, those that accused me of low-balling now say I was setting a bar too high.

    Now I show a path to a minimum of $100 million and a great shot at $150 million for 2014. People are already saying that I am setting a bar high and others that I am low-balling

    I get accused last week of putting out the article after the close. In theory because the numbers were good. This week, when the numbers are flat, SA did not publish the piece until Monday. I do not control when SA publishes articles. Ironiaclly, those that lay out such outlandish things fail to grasp that the numbers and data are available to my readers first (prior to SA). Last week they were published during the market session. This week on just after close.

    On television ads.

    I think we can all agree that the Victoza ad is a good one (not specific to weight loss, but does mention it and the company is seeking weight loss on its label)

    Q2 2012 - 437,000 units
    Q3 2012 - 516,000 units (18% growth)
    Q4 2012 - 553,000 units (7% growth)
    Q1 2013 - 607,000 units (9% growth)
    Q2 2013 - 620,000 units (2% growth)
    Q3 2013 - 616,000 units (-1% growth) ads start
    Q4 2013 - 639,000 units (4% growth) ads continue

    As you can see, we are now entering 6 months of television ads and sales have not yet rocketed up. Television ads are a process
    Mar 17, 2014. 01:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Jakes....

    People can want a lot of things.

    Again

    The purpose here is to track the sales and get to an idea of what revenue will be. In order to accomplish that, we need to make some assumptions.

    People want sales to be tremendous. Wanting does not get us anywhere.
    Mar 17, 2014. 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Etheral....

    1. It is understood that sales do not move in a smooth fashion.

    2. If you took a few minutes to analyze the data presented you would see that I actually call for week over week growth to DECREASE as a percentage as time passes. Look at the data for $100 million and $150 million. You will see that the week over week growth on a percentage basis goes DOWN with each quarter. Perhaps you should have considered this before making your comment.

    3. These charts are used to convert to sales figures. It is a pretty simple concept

    4. I take it that you have registered similar complaints with analyst firms out there, and with Eisai (look at slide 24 on the link below)

    http://bit.ly/1fCZ5Kb
    Mar 17, 2014. 12:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Imis....

    There is no negative bent. The drug works for some and does not work for others. The clinical trials spelled that out pretty clearly.

    I have heard of some with good results, and I have heard of some that have not had good results.

    Reviews on websites are not really a measure that would define a drug. With arena having a very passionate investor base, I would take just 130 reviews with a grain (if not a shaker) of salt. That is not to say that genuine reviews do not exist there.
    Mar 17, 2014. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Newgate....

    Traders do like Arena.
    Mar 17, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Wie....

    Approval in a country lasts as long as that nation keeps a drug approved.
    Mar 17, 2014. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Jeffry....

    Okay....I am game....What adjustment do you feel is appropriate? Remember, you say that my estimates (which have tracked the revenue quite well over the first nine months) are "WAAAY to low". What adjustment would you like to see? Please remember, that these estimates are used to project revenue and sales.
    Mar 17, 2014. 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    Tune....

    1. Someone from Eisai did not supposedly put out numbers. The CEO of Eisai Japan put out $200 million in May of 2012 for a sales target by March 31, 2014. It was in a quarterly call to Eisai investors and not supposed.

    2. This chart is not tracking that $200 million, nor the $150 million put out there by Eisai's Coates. It is tracking about $58 million. That is about $90 million less than Coates, and $140 million less than the Eisai CEO.

    3. The sales are what they are. That is what the charts show. I place them against a backdrop of expectations levels. What sales are you expecting by March 31st? What sales levels are you projecting for 2014? I will gladly make a chart for you on how sales to date trackj against your expectations.
    Mar 17, 2014. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    lou....

    "As we head toward the end of the first quarter"

    That would be a collective of everyone invested. The first quarter runs from January 1 through March 31. "We" are now in mid March...Thus, "We" are collectively heading to the end of the quarter. I would have thought this as obvious, but I guess some need to catch up. Glad I could help you understand who "we" is.

    "By looking at past and current sales figures, we as investors can try to estimate future revenue and understand how sales stand versus the expectations of the street"

    It was clear to most, but I want you to feel like you understand as well. In this case the "we" is comprised of those invested in the equity. The sentence stated as much, but I guess you need it simplified a bit. I am glad I could help.

    "What we want to begin to assess now is how things look for 2014 as well."

    Because the meaning of "we" had escaped you early on, I can see where the use in this sentence may have confused you. The "we" here is again referring to investors.

    "What we have here is the closing out of the early projections on sales for March 31st, which have a certain modest working against a backdrop of overall 2014 sales which are showing decent potential."

    Again, the "we" refers to investors.

    "One factor we do need to look at is that competitor Vivus (VVUS) seems to have stalled at the 11,000 mark in weekly sales."

    Again, the "we" refers to the collective of investors.

    I hope this helps you, but just in case it does not, please see the link below.

    http://bit.ly/1cQxD0T


    Mar 17, 2014. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    David....

    Let's no overestimate the impact of television ads.

    Victoza launched an ad campaign in Q3 of last year. Unit sales of Victoza.

    Q2 - 262k before ad
    Q3 - 275k ad released
    Q4 - 301k ad still playing

    There is indeed growth, but how much is attributable to the ad?

    Television ads take time to bring in consumers. Expecting 30% to 40% pops in sales in the first month is not what I would say is typical. I would say that expecting that kind of traction is a set-up for failure. Ads are simply one arm of a much bigger strategy.
    Mar 17, 2014. 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    lou....

    I think that the impact on Arena will be similar to the impact on other equities. The short market is not vanishing.
    Mar 17, 2014. 10:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Down With Overall Market - Sales Data No Help [View article]
    NoFatso....

    I think that Contrave can have a similar trajectory to Arena with the drawback of being third to market, but the benefit of having more insurance coverage than Arena and Vivus did in their launches.
    Mar 17, 2014. 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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