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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Arena And Vivus - Looking At Prescriptions [View article]
    du11ke....

    Thank you for the kind words. There is a lot in this piece to digest. Hopefully the points came across. Cheers
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus - Looking At Prescriptions [View article]
    ksea....

    I agree. The weight loss industry is huge. I was responding to a comment that stated that Belviq does not compete with phentermine. Discussing all the other items would have been diluting the salient point that Belviq is in very direct competition with phen.
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus - Looking At Prescriptions [View article]
    jreiter...

    This article was written yesterday. It would appear that the issue you are referring to became a hot topic this morning. I would highly suggest that you comprehend that Q and B both have double counts in the first month. It is something I have written about in the past.

    This hot topic of the day is essentially a non-issue. Boil it down to the dollars and you will see why.
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus - Looking At Prescriptions [View article]
    Feelin.....

    I have written about 20 comments on the subject today between this and my other article that was published this morning. It is actually getting tiresome. Please read those, but I will say this.

    The message board posters are running around jumping up and down, ranting, and raving about something they have not really given 10 minutes of thought to or 5 minutes of research.

    The issue is virtually identical with Qsymia and Belviq. A ton of scripts are done twice in the first month. The free trial and then the regular treatment thereafter.

    In addition.....REMEMBER.... and symphony are counting SALES. If a patient tries either drug free and has a bad reaction to it they will not get the continued treatment. Thus, the second script would NEVER be counted. Having the double count (for Q and B) means that the patient is responding....that is a good thing.

    Moral of the story.....over-passionate investors often do not take the time trying to understand the dynamics....they simply want to be the "hero of the message board" by coming up with some tid-bit that is meaningless in the grander scheme of things.
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus - Looking At Prescriptions [View article]
    imis.....

    You want to get lost in the woods.

    These drugs suppress appetite. That is the primary method by which they give the result of weight loss.

    B and Q must compete with phen. End of story.
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus - Looking At Prescriptions [View article]
    gmb....

    in theory, treatment with phen is 3 months. Time release allows the drug to be used on a routine basis. That is one component.
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus - Looking At Prescriptions [View article]
    Gazoo.....

    Thank you for the comment.

    I find it amazing when people say that Belviq does not compete with phen. Phen has 6 million people taking it. These people that argue this must carry the feeling that the 6 million phen users are not in the potential market or should even be considered for Belviq.

    It is among the most short sighted arguments I see in this sector, and seems to be unique to very passionate Arena investors. Passion is okay, but not when it fogs clear thought about the segment.
    Aug 7, 2013. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Day For Vivus - Is The Future Brighter? [View article]
    binary.....

    There will be about 30 people running around trying to analyze this 7 ways to sunday, and in the end it does not matter.

    I personally know of someone that got a script for 15 days and then a second script for the refill. In the first month they were counted as 2 sales.

    If you boil this down to TRX, it is essentially the same. From a total revenue perspective, I do not care about NRX. It is meaningless. I care about how many scripts sold (new or old)

    Now, that is not to say there is not value in understanding refills. Refills give an indication of the rate of adoption. That is important because it allows us to gauge the likelihood of a patient staying on the drug.

    Boil it down to dollars. That is what matters. If you do that you will see how insignificant this entire debate is.....especially considering that the impact is essentially identical between the two companies.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And Vivus - Looking At Prescriptions [View article]
    SP500....

    All three achieve weight loss primarily by appetite suppression.

    The time release is a MAJOR factor of differentiation. It allows the treatment to be indefinite.

    Belviq absolutely has to compete with phen.

    If you walk into a store and see coke, pepsi, and Store brand cola, you can not tell me that coke has to compete with the store brand, but that pepsi does not.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Day For Vivus - Is The Future Brighter? [View article]
    Red....

    As each month passes this issue becomes less and less relevant. If you boil it down to the dollars this is evident.

    This issue seems to be today's "red herring" that the "kids" got way too excited about. Boil it down to dollars, which is where the rubber meets the road, and it is a meaningless issue.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Day For Vivus - Is The Future Brighter? [View article]
    tgallo....

    Vivus needs traction in sales. That is well known. The issue here is potential and whether or not, as investors, we believe that the potential is real.

    On the scripts....

    It would appear that this is the subject du jour today, and it is clear that many are not taking the step to look at the dollars. I am seeing some want to "cut the Q scripts in half". This same issue is happening with BOTH companies. In their lust to slam one or the other, the over-passionate investors are focused on the wrong thing. It is sad to see.

    Smart investors break it down to dollars and see the real issue at hand.

    IMS counts any trial....be it 14 days free of Qsymia, or 15 days free of Belviq as a unique script. Essentially, as a general rule, anyone participating in the free trial (and stays on one of these products after) is going to generate 2 scripts in the first month.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Day For Vivus - Is The Future Brighter? [View article]
    imis.....

    I am not downplaying it. The fact of the matter is that ANY woman that is trying to start a family does not want to be on EITHER of these drugs. BOTH can cause birth defects. BOTH carry warnings to that.

    Are you aware that BOTH drugs are category X when it comes to the FDA?

    Category X
    Studies in animals or humans have demonstrated fetal abnormalities and/or there is positive evidence of human fetal risk based on adverse reaction data from investigational or marketing experience, and the risks involved in use of the drug in pregnant women clearly outweigh potential benefits.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Day For Vivus - Is The Future Brighter? [View article]
    Red....

    Agree....The Qsymia free trial is essentially the titration dose. It is a pretty safe assumption that most people would take advantage of getting that free.

    Bottom line is that the free/tiitration dose for Q and the 15 days free for Belviq are causing 2 scripts to be counted in the first month as a general rule.

    I chalk this up to over-passionate investors trying to find red herrings, where there really aren't any. As I stated, one only needs to look at the dollars to see this.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Day For Vivus - Is The Future Brighter? [View article]
    ims....

    Doctors have to look at many things. You have mentioned one. This is a topic that seems to be brought up by investors quite often, yet it is essentially meaningless in the course of discussion. It has now grown its own life and people walk around mis-informed about the subject. Your comment is a case in point.

    You state

    "Women of childbearing age have to be on birth control AND prove it." with an emphasis on "proving it"

    Here is the reality.

    http://bit.ly/14yoENM

    I realize that you are likely an Arena investor and want to see the company do well. I am in that same boat. However, pregnancy on either of these meds carries risks.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Day For Vivus - Is The Future Brighter? [View article]
    SP500....

    see comment below.
    Aug 7, 2013. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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