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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Vivus Gains Insurance Traction With Qsymia [View article]
    Jakes....

    For the most part, the covered lives will be very similar for both companies. This piece of news, and strategy from Vivus, is a bit different in that it takes the concept of improving the insurance dynamic a step further. It is good news for the sector as a whole, and a good victory for Vivus in getting a jump in what is essentially free marketing help.
    Jan 14, 2014. 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    Sean....

    There is no easy answer. It depends on how a spin happens and what happens in between. If it was a pure spin, you would you could see the SIRIO symbol come back onto the market as a pure SDARS play.

    However, what If Liberty were to make a play at Live Nation and carry that under the SIRI holdco. Then Siri could be an owner of Live Nation and Liberty would still be a parent. If that were to happen, and then SiriusXM spun out, then the spin might include something like that.
    Jan 14, 2014. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charter Wants Time Warner Shareholders To Decide [View article]
    vapor....

    Yes it did. For a brief moment. It was way overbought at that point and quickly gave it all back.

    By realistic valuations the equity could see a spike as high as $4.50 in 2014, but it will not stay up there. The next quarterly call will show some growing pains in the company. It is not that SIRI is doing bad, but it is beginning to mature in the growth curve
    Jan 14, 2014. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    Sean...

    Long ago I sold half of my SIRI and bought Liberty. That allowed me to benefit from the Starz spin. I think that Liberty holds the most cards in this, and thus will benefit most. Just my opinion.

    We need to be careful about saying "load with debt"

    Yes, Liberty has indeed levered companies and spun them. Starz is an example. It has done well.

    There is a difference between smart debt and debt as an anchor. I would not say that Liberty has created anchors.
    Jan 14, 2014. 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    odie....

    The voting rights, IMO, have nothing to do with that. The SIRI stake in the C shares is 39%. He would have the votes he needs. Further, why would anyone in their right mind that is invested in Liberty (be it currently or after the SIRI deal) vote against the acquisition of TWC. Getting TWC is a great deal
    Jan 14, 2014. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    sour...

    I am not trying to be a jerk here, but what does your vote in SIRI currently get you? Nothing. SIRI goes in the direction of what Liberty wants because Liberty controls the vote.

    You had no say in the deal that gave Liberty 40% of the company.

    You had no say in Liberty going over 50%.

    You had no say in the agreement to buy back $500 million from the Liberty stake (currently stands at $160 million).

    You have no say in whether the additional $340 million gets bought.

    Sirius XM already has substantial debt. The potential debt load may go up 15% to 25% or so at the max end (IMO). Do you consider the current debt as stolen from shareholders?

    If your goal is to make money now, and not in 5 years, I do not understand your ire. The max on SIRI this year is about $4.50. Without this deal it was at $3.60 and teetering on a dip.

    Again, I am not trying to be a jerk.

    If i might use an analogy.

    You bought a Mercedes and expect a Mercedes. You are now being delivered a BMW. Does that mean that the BMW is bad? It could actually be better. Instead of throwing out the concept, why not take a good look at the BMW before rendering a decision.
    Jan 14, 2014. 11:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    Cambrian....

    "The original deal terms were insufficient to generate a majority of existing SIRI shareholders approving the transaction. If the acquirer wants to persuade SIRI shareholders that the 'C' shares they will receive will generate future value for them, he has not yet made that case."

    I would not be so sure about this. Yes, there is a vocal super-super-super-supe... minority, but institutions will control this vote. As yet, we have no real assessment into what the minority as a whole is thinking.

    One bit of advise I would offer is not to assess the situation by listening to the loud voices of a very small group when you need a much bigger group to get the job done.

    If you go to a Ralph Nader lobby event, you would swear that he has the votes to become president. In the end, he has a very small percentage of what he would need.

    I am not saying that those that do not like the deal are wrong in not liking it...I am saying that the PRUDENT thing to do is understand what the bigger group is doing.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    sirius....

    The company can likely handle 4.5x without too much impact. The key is whether or not they can keep growing EBITDA.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    iceman....

    The company is not worth $5.50 at this point, and may not be worth that kind of money for two years. That is simply reality.

    A cash deal makes little sense from a tax perspective.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    Leib....

    AMEN
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    siri2014....

    Look at valuation.

    The current guidance on EBITDA is $1.38 billion. At a multiple of 22 (the high end of the multiple scale SIRI trades in), you get into the neighborhood of $4.50 per share.

    Siri can trade beyond that, but typically 22 is the max on this equity. What can move it higher is either EBITDA outperforming significantly, or share buybacks that happen over time.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    Ted....

    The high price target on Sirius XM right now is $5.80. I am not sure where you got $8 from. The median target is $4.50.

    Your position would not be a loss, as you would still have stock. This is not an offer that pay's you cash and it is done. It is paying you stock, which can then appreciate or decline.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    crab...

    Sirius XM trades on decent volume every day. The buyback's are actually very likely to be on hold at this point. Liberty requested that Sirius stop buying Liberty shares, and while the company is not obliged to do it, they likely are. If SIRI is buying open market shares, they are increasing Liberty's ownership.

    It is just my opinion, but I would say that buybacks are currently on hold.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    LaFiere...

    Agero is as much about a defensive move as it was about being ready for the connected car space. You commented about Agero on the last article and seem hung up on it for some reason. It is a very small piece of the overall pie.

    You can read more here:

    http://bit.ly/1dsIvBl

    Sirius XM's telematics efforts have not gained traction. The Agero deal gives the company some leverage. However, the connected car space is expanding very quickly and Sirius XM (even with Agero) is not the only solution in town.

    By the way, Malone does already work with Pandora. Live Nation and Pandora have a few deals in place and it has been working quite well.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Liberty Media Dips Sirius XM Investors Rant [View article]
    SXM....

    Levering the company to a 7x or 8x level is not likely in the cards. Liberty has spoken that levering if to about 4.5x is doable, while Sirius XM tends to say somewhere between 3 and 3.5 is the sweet spot.
    Jan 14, 2014. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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