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Spencer Osborne

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  • For Arena, Belviq Refills Are Becoming Key [View article]

    Exactly how many people do you think have "lost all the weight they want to" in the past 15 weeks? Really.

    SP500 always finds something to complain about because SP500 is more focused on me than trying to really assess the issue.

    As I stated, there are thousands of things that "could happen", but the vast majority do not really move the needle.

    I know....I know....I diod not consider that Susie up the street wanted to lose 50 punds, was on her way to that but money got tight, so stopped, then hit a big lottery ticket so started again, but then got into a car accident and lost her left arm (aand the 40 pounds it weighed), so stopped, but then put weight back on so sytarted again......You see the point.

    What I have set up is a parameter for tracking that is based on what is the most common situation....refill every month. That data (as imperfect as it is) when used consistently, can supply an investor with information that helps gauge traction as it relates to the equity.

    If you do not like it....don't use it. Then again, you may have been one that was jumping up and down all excited when the script sales improved (as most expected) after the holiday week.

    Best wishes
    Sep 28, 2013. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Arena, Belviq Refills Are Becoming Key [View article]

    I agree that TRX is the bigger driver. It it why....up until this point....I have not really focused much on refills.

    The big issue is Q's launch was not good by any stretch of the imagination. Belviq has fared better, but it is still not saying much.

    The exponential type growth we saw in Q in June was a direct result of the retail chain becoming available to Qsymia for the first time. When that happened I predicted it would pek out and that is exactly what transpired.
    Sep 28, 2013. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]

    As I have said many times....The detractors are a few dozen message board buddies. They just happen to be a very vocal bunch
    Sep 28, 2013. 01:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]

    I have never "mentioned" that I write for write for shorts. I have mentioned that many of my articles are geared toward more active traders. An active trader does not have to be short
    Sep 28, 2013. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Arena, Belviq Refills Are Becoming Key [View article]

    Why is it that you always want to find something wrong with anything I write.

    Of course this is an inexact science. We all understand that. Some people will take 1 pill a day instead of two. Some people will refill at a pharmacy that is not collected in the data. Some people will convince a doc to write new scripts to phony names. There are a million things that could happen. That being said, none of them likely make a material change in the what is presented here....and what is presented here is tracking the same criteria week in and week out. What we are doing here is seeking trending on identical criteria measured against itself. If the trending is good, we see it reflected. If it is bad, we see it reflected. By doing what you are doing, you might as well throw out all data and not have a clue about scripts unless the company tells you the number.
    Sep 28, 2013. 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]

    For insurers it is all about the dollars. With something like weight loss, they need to measure the time value of money. Is not covering today going to cost us more in the long run vs what they are able to do with having the cash today. It will take some time for insurers to fully embrace the long term dollar benefits.

    In my opinion something that would really help the process would be a diagnostic. If there was a diagnostic that could predict responders it would be a big plus. Insuring a $100 diagnostic is cheaper than insuring three months of pills.
    Sep 27, 2013. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]
    Day trader...

    Thank you for the kind words. These weekly updates are designed to give a reader the pulse of sales. I am glad you enjoy them
    Sep 27, 2013. 01:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]

    It is an interesting dynamic. There is big potential growth, but getting it to become reality is the big challenge. If it becomes apparent that the prescription weigh-loss market has potential other players will become involved. That is why I covered the Victoza advertisement earlier this week. Seeing other players interested in this game means that these other players also see potential.

    As an investor, I want to see success of the sector....not just for Belviq. If we have a compelling sector, then growth within it is possible, and the better candidates can lead the pack.

    By the way...I think Obamacare will be doomed, and never be what was envisioned. Too much red tape...too many loopholes...and bad for the economy as it is current constituted.
    Sep 27, 2013. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]

    At least you are watching the right team. Bruins!!!!

    More compound type growth will develop. It will simply take a bit longer to happen.
    Sep 27, 2013. 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]

    For clarity...

    This series (weekly scripts) is designed and meant to simply present the nubers vs. projections for the purpose of tracking. I offer a little opinion in these pieces, but the desire here is to simply keep this as a "pure" tracking series.

    You will see an article on refill rates that gets into much more detail forthcoming (as I promised a couple of weeks ago)

    I am sorry that a you do not like or appreciate a simple ongoing presentation of the data. Those that follow the equity closely may find it boring. However, that group is just a few percent of the overall audience. There are thousands that love to get the weekly data points and simply make their own investment assessment. You need to bear that in mind.
    Sep 27, 2013. 11:29 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]

    In my opinion the DTC alone is not enough to drive the hockey stick. The other component that is needed is insurance coverage. I do believe that television ads are quite compelling to consumers and that Belviq will benefit. The impact would be much better if we had insurance coverage more on board.
    Sep 27, 2013. 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales - Pacing Along Modestly [View article]

    You certainly do not have to appreciate the work. You are entitled to that. A few items to note.

    The Eisai $150 projection was made On June 7th. That is not 6 months ago, but rater 3.75 months ago and on launch day....not prior.

    The $200 million by March 31, 2014 was made May 15th (if my memory serves me correctly). That that 4.5 months ago, and just 3 weeks prior to launch.

    I believe that it is important to grasp and understand projections made by management and compare the progress to those expectations. After all, we rely on management to give us the current story, and where they feel the company is headed. At this point management has given us no new projection at all.

    I have never stated that the forecast is irrelevant. I believe it is very relevant. The reason that this equity is down where it is is because the sales pace is not what everyone thought it would be. The only way to create equity appreciation is to get the sales pace back on track.

    You have asked several times now that I contact Arena or Eisai. I have told you several times now that I have done so. I do not understand what it is about my response that is befuddling you. I have also told you that these company's are not giving out any projections. Again, I don't understand why you continue to request that I get access to information that no one else has, and these companies are not ready to provide. If that is troubling for you, then I would suggest that you speak to them yourself.
    Sep 27, 2013. 11:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deeper Research: Victoza TV Ad Highlights Arena's Belviq's Opportunity [View instapost]

    The issue is gross sales and "blockbuster" status. Blockbuster is $1 billion of sales in a year. It is the same for every drug out there, regardless of the hurdles that face the drug.

    Early on "blockbuster" was assigned to both Qsym,ia and Belviq. Qsymia's launch failed to reach that status, and thus far Belviq is demonstrating that it will not get there in the near term.

    Viagra did face the challenge of no insurance coverage like Belviq and Qsymia.

    Some perspective.

    Viagra made its debut on April 10, 1998. In its first 3 months there were 2.7 million prescriptions filled. The sales figure was $411 million.

    At the 3 month mark for Belviq prescriptions are estimated at about 43,000. Gross sales (to consumers) are estimated at $7.6 million

    Script levels for Viagra are ahead of Belviq by a factor of 63

    Gross sales are ahead by a factor of over 50
    Sep 26, 2013. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novo Nordisk Advertising Weight Loss - A Future Peek At Arena Or Vivus? [View article]

    So you expect me to sit back and simply accept personal attacks? You are doing the attacking, and you are well off the mark in much of what you are saying.

    I am setting the record straight. That's it.

    The personal attacks do not come from me. They are aimed at me..

    You have now joined in that practice and have been proven wrong Why not let it rest?

    Did you correct your foolish post about the deletion of a comment that was never deleted?
    Sep 26, 2013. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novo Nordisk Advertising Weight Loss - A Future Peek At Arena Or Vivus? [View article]

    You are once again putting yourself in a position of jumping to conclusions.

    360 of the 899 articles I have published on Seeking Alpha I received no compensation at all for.

    I started writing articles for publication on SA in 2007. I continued through June of 2009. I did not submit any articles for two years. In May of 2011, I started writing for SA again. Over the past 28 months I have published 539 articles.

    Your assessment of the compensation is grossly over exaggerated.

    The personal attacks are from nonsensical readers...Perhaps you should simply not read the comments.

    Now you assert that my motivation is to generate controversy and build page views by comments???? Really????

    Please take a moment to look at the last few articles on Pandora that I wrote. Please note the number of comments by me on those. Look at these examples:

    You see, when people jump to grossly inaccurate conclusions (much like what you have exhibited in your last few posts), I will defend myself and set the record straight. It seems to be a symptom of Arena investors more than any other equity.

    I have spoken to people at Arena and Eisai. They do not want to offer up anything. They treat everyone on the street the same way. I am not supposed to parrot the sell side sales pitch....we get that (sometimes) from Arena and Eisai.

    Have you ever once offered up the risk side of the equation, or is your version of analysis based on hopes, dreams, and positive outlook only?

    If you would like to take this off line, I am perfectly will to do so. PM me here on SA and I will give you my phone number.
    Sep 26, 2013. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment