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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    binary....

    I am telling you what is on the Belviq label. Is this a surprise to you? I am asking this seriously, because the l;abel has been published for months.
    Jun 10 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Jacob....

    But everyone considers the market to be about 66% of the population. In reality hal;f of that pool is likely not a very good candidate for the drug.

    33% of the market is between 5 and 15 pounds overweight. I would submit and suggest that most of these people would be best served simply getting stricter on diet and exercise as a solution rather than take either drug. In theory, they have to do the diet and exercise to take the drug anyway. In essence, 66% of the population ranges from underweight to 15 pounds overweight. I think any doctor worth his salt would try to avoid scripting either product to this pool of people. A 180 pound man can burn almost 300 calories with just 1 hour of moderate walking (just 3 mph). Calorie intake should likely be between 1,500 and 2,000 per day.
    Jun 10 10:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    binary....

    The categories are below. Top is in the worst category and Belviq in the second to worst. This is a reason that when the big message board pregnancy debate come up I call it schoolyard ranting. NEITHER is good for a woman considering starting a family

    Category A - Adequate and well-controlled studies have failed to demonstrate a risk to the fetus in the first trimester of pregnancy (and there is no evidence of risk in later trimesters).

    Category B - Animal reproduction studies have failed to demonstrate a risk to the fetus and there are no adequate and well-controlled studies in pregnant women.

    Category C - Animal reproduction studies have shown an adverse effect on the fetus and there are no adequate and well-controlled studies in humans, but potential benefits may warrant use of the drug in pregnant women despite potential risks.

    Category D - There is positive evidence of human fetal risk based on adverse reaction data from investigational or marketing experience or studies in humans, but potential benefits may warrant use of the drug in pregnant women despite potential risks.

    Category X - Studies in animals or humans have demonstrated fetal abnormalities and/or there is positive evidence of human fetal risk based on adverse reaction data from investigational or marketing experience, and the risks involved in use of the drug in pregnant women clearly outweigh potential benefits.

    Category N - FDA has not classified the drug.
    Jun 10 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    binary...

    In rat studies, offspring suffered from low birth weight that persisted into adulthood. What proof would you like? From the FDA Label:

    "BELVIQ is contraindicated during pregnancy, because weight loss offers no potential benefit to a pregnant woman and may result in fetal harm. Maternal exposure to lorcaserin in late pregnancy in rats resulted in lower body weight in offspring which persisted to adulthood. If this drug is used during pregnancy, or if the patient becomes pregnant while taking this drug, the patient should be apprised of the potential hazard of maternal weight loss to the fetus."

    I am having trouble with what more proof you want? Do you agree that this FDA warning is a birth defect?

    Belviq is category X. That states, "Studies in animals or humans have demonstrated fetal abnormalities and/or there is positive evidence of human fetal risk based on adverse reaction data from investigational or marketing experience, and the risks involved in use of the drug in pregnant women clearly outweigh potential benefits."

    Were you not aware of this? I ask because I see many people that think Belviq is "safe" because someone on some message board has repeated it time and time again. This is why I always state that safety is a relative term
    Jun 10 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    binary....

    Neither drug should be taken by women who are trying to get preggers. BOTH "can" cause birth defects.
    Jun 10 08:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Vito....

    It is probably very cheap. Last quarter the cost of goods sold was $473,000. Cost of manufacturing services was $1,645,000.

    If we were to believe that the initial supply was $12 million of product at $200 per bottle, that would mean 60,000 bottles. That would equate to 3 bottles per initial targeted doctor. From a cost of goods sold standpoint (assuming that the only goods "sold" is belviq tabs)you are looking at about $8 ($7.88) per bottle.
    Jun 10 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Vito....

    In all fairness, a doctor would need to look at not just side effects, but other meds a patient is taking, etc. prior to making any decision regarding which script a patient should take.

    The proper med is the one that will work best for the patient, and in the best case no med at all, but rather some stern guidance on diet and exercise.
    Jun 10 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Jawed....

    I saw the reasonable risk article. While he did use a lower price point, he also used a very good recurring patient rate. Personally, I think his most conservative model is still aggressive....but that is simply my opinion.

    I consider good to be getting to $250 million in annual revenue. We need to crawl before we walk and run
    Jun 10 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    IMS.....

    Yes and no.

    I will use myself as an example. I have a BMI of 27. If I lose 10 pounds I would have a BMI of 25. If I had hypertension, I would (at this moment) be in the pool of people Belviq is intended to treat.

    Would you recommend that I take this drug? Or....would you recommend that I should be more careful about my diet and do a bit more walking? Personally I would never take either of the drugs on the market, but then again, I do not let my physical health get to unacceptable levels.

    Now, in co trust, so eons that is 40 pounds overweight is very likely to be more at risk from the weight than the side effects would cause. They would be a decent candidate.

    Indeed, there are no silver bullets
    Jun 10 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Sofa...

    Have you read the labeling for Belviq? Do you really think that the side effects are not serious? My statement was not an indictment of the drug. It is simply stating the obvious. All script drugs have serious side effects.

    Why is it that you seem to exist only in attack mode? Why is it that you do not want to talk about the on tent of the article but instead seem focused on me.

    I am long. My position in arena is appropriate for my portfolio. I did not bet my house on it, nor did I throw a few pennies at it. An investment of 16,000 shares is meaningful to you perhaps, but meaningless to someone else.in other words, a 16,000 share take is nothing to someone worth $10 million, but substantial to someone worth $200,000. Even if I were to toss out a number to you, it does not tell you anything. Mr. Allen of Microsoft held tons of shaman pharmaceuticals shares, but relative to his worth his millions of shares were a drop in the bucket. My investment in Arena is appropriate for me. I will not go in the poor house if it fails. I will have my same lifestyle. If it takes off I can improve some things.
    Jun 10 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Sparxe.....

    As a drug Belviq is novel. A fact well understood by everyone.

    How do you see the marketing of Belviq as state of the art? The strategies being deployed are done all of the time.

    The price to manufacture has nothing to do with the revenue split. The company cut a deal to sell the product at 31% to 36% of the net. A huge part of the business is recovering all the expense that went into developing the drug
    Jun 10 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Binary....

    In fairness to mn, the drug is very expensive and the side effects are serious. The efficacy can be debated until the cows come home. Mn could be a short, or could be invested in another equity that competes. We do not know.
    Jun 10 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Shar.....

    Co-pay is what a patient pays out of pocket toward a script. By example, you could have a co-pay of $35 and insurance covers the rest. These costs do not come out of the percentage that arena and Eisai split (I think that is what you are asking). Any discounts will come out of the split
    Jun 10 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    RNn.....

    Yes, the price is expensive. There will be a lot learned over the few months. Insurance is critical, and the amount of companies covering the drug will be a major consideration in dictating pricing.

    I agree that the side effects are serious. They are serious or many drugs. Personally I avoid using scripted meds if at all possible. That being said, the side effects of obesity are serious as well. For some, the benefit of losing weight offsets the s.ide effects of the drug.

    The effectiveness can be debated with both sides having compelling arguments. I would never argue that 5% or 10% is minimal. Each patient has a unique circumstance.
    Jun 10 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Buster....

    I agree that promotions are a factor. I would have liked to see the company maximize revenue for early adopters, but I understand why they are doing what they are.

    From an investors standpoint, understanding the revenue side it critical. It will gain importance with each passing quarter. That is why a savvy investor is considering these dynamics now. The script numbers will be the first driver. The revenue equation is the second step. Being a step ahead is what it's all about
    Jun 10 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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