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Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Arena's Smoking Cessation, Nash, Combination Belviq-Phentermine, Free Belviq Samples [View article]
    Brian....

    http://yhoo.it/Q54HWg;_ylt=AkcgheDLh8Gm9MlZ...

    You are posting very bad misinformation everywhere. I was just forwarded the link above.

    You are saying that belviq works twice as well as Chantix. You have been called out for this misinformation a few times now.

    You arrived at this conclusion based on a mathmatecal error on your part.

    Chantix Placebo had a quit rate of 18%
    Chatix arm had a quit rate of 44%
    Chantix was 144% better than its placebo

    Belviq pacebo had a quit rate of 5.6%
    belviq arm had a quit rate of 15.3%
    belviq performed 173% better than its pacebo.

    173% is not twice as good as 144%

    I hate to spam my own article, but this shows it well

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I would suggest that if you want to maintain your credibility that you make corrective statements. Otherwise those that would want to manipulate this equity can shred your posts to shreds.
    Nov 24, 2014. 08:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation, Nash, Combination Belviq-Phentermine, Free Belviq Samples [View article]
    Joseph....

    You are the one out of your league. Believe me, with each passing moment you look more and more the fool.

    The data is cumulative.

    Lets start at 469.....

    They air a prime time ad.....OF COURSE IT IS A NEW RECORD. It is now 470

    Guess what Joseph.....when they ad another one, it will be a record again....It will be at 471

    If they air 12 prime time ads tonight should we celebrate a "new record" or would it be better to proclaim it an "all time high"

    Do you see the lunacy here? You just took another record breath.....now another....now another....now another....now another. hey guess what, with each word you read you get to a new record for the number of words you read!

    Look at your links!

    469 ads on 11/4

    526 ads on 11/16 - wow, who would have thought that each time they air a prime time ad the tally goes up? hint....between when you posted the number on 11/4 and when you posted the link on 11/16 there were 57 prime time ads aired. Oh my, that is an average of a bit less than 5 per day.

    Now when they were at 532 that was 10 hours after your 526 post....Wow, they aired 6 more ads.

    Okay Joseph.....You can jump up and down and do jumping lacks with each successive prime time ad. We should get about 10 records tonight.

    You simply are so wrapped up in your thought process that you can not see straight.

    The point is this. The ad has run for about 210 days and by your method of keeping track we have set 540 new "records". Yep.....Yawn
    Nov 24, 2014. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation, Nash, Combination Belviq-Phentermine, Free Belviq Samples [View article]
    joseph....

    I have no difficulty at all wrapping my head around the bigger picture.

    The bigger picture is what it means to sales. Belviq and phentermine will not add to sales the way belviq as a smoking cessation product will. heck, the belviq plus phentermine study demonstrated that phentermine will cause more weight loss than Belviq in the first 12 weeks.

    I think that 1 million to 1.2 million bottles of belviq will sell in 2015. I think less than 10% of that number will come as a result of the belviq plus phentermine use.

    Smoking as an indication on the label opens up an entire new market.

    If you disagree so strongly, put your numbers on the table. What will sales be next year. How much do you attribute to Belviq plus phentermine? Come on Joseph....get to the BIG PICTURE.....Put yourself on the line.

    You want big picture???? I outlined the 2014 sales at the BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. Sales are tracking EXACTLY where I outlined. That is BIG PICTURE. Your estimates?????????
    Nov 24, 2014. 07:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation, Nash, Combination Belviq-Phentermine, Free Belviq Samples [View article]
    Josepeph....

    I am not trying to outsmart the data. I am pointing out that you do not understand the data....OR....you are trying to make it appear more than what it is by using the term "record".

    Simple example.

    the breath you just took set a new record high for you in the number of breaths taken.....breathe again and you set another record....breathe again and yet another record is set....breathe again and a record once again. everyone jump on board! Joseph is setting records by the second.

    Why not just admit that you are reading the data wrong and move on?

    Let's review what you stated:

    "Arna's partner Eisai is the only FDA-approved weight loss drug being promoted directly to consumers on TV. On November 23, 2014, iSpot shows Eisai is stepping up marketing, with a record 7,652 national airings and 540 prime time airings."

    so, what is the record here?

    Look at your posts:

    "TV Ads Primetime Up to 448 now. It will be interesting to see after election advertising stops."

    "First day after election campaign airings stop BELVIQ primetime airings are at all time highs 469"

    "TV Ads Primetime Up to 473"

    "TV Ads Now 481 Primetime"

    "BELVIQ Primetime Airings 486 and National Airings 7,176"

    "BELVIQ Primetime Airings 496 which is up 10 from last reporting"

    "BELVIQ PRIMETIME TV AIRINGS SPIKING AT 507 AND NATIONAL AIRINGS AT 7,265 AS EXPECTED AFTER MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND AHEAD OF WEIGHT LOSS SEASON"

    "BELVIQ PRIMETIME AIRINGS AT ALL TIME HIGH OF 520"

    "PRIMETIME AIRINGS NOW 525"

    "BELVIQ PRIMETIME AIRINGS NOW 526"

    "BELVIQ PRIMETIME AIRINGS NOW 532"

    "BELVIQ PRIMETIME AIRINGS STILL HUMMING AT 531"

    "BELVIQ FACEBOOK HAS 1663 MEMBERS AND GROWING AND PRIMETIME TV AIRINGS SUSTAINED AT 532"

    "NATIONAL AIRINGS 7652 AND PRIMETIME AIRINGS NOW 540"

    http://bit.ly/1v6p73q;FilterType=

    It would appear that you did not think that the airings were cumulative.

    You use terms like "all time high" and "spiking", "humming", "sustaining" and "record"

    Is that all spin designed to trick the reader into thinking that things are great? As I said, the ad numbers are cumulative. By your thinking, we will see about another 50 "records" today in total airings and about 10 "records" on the prime time numbers.

    It is simply very very odd to get all excited about another ad running. There are often 50 or 60 run per day.

    You give the impression that things are "stepping up" when the real story is that advertising has stepped down from the peak 6 weeks ago.

    It is either that you did not understand the data or you are spinning excitement into something that is really not worth of getting excited about.
    Nov 24, 2014. 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation, Nash, Combination Belviq-Phentermine, Free Belviq Samples [View article]
    Joseph....

    Yes. It is cumulative. If the ad airs 45 times toady, do we say that it set a new record 45 times? All of the data is cumulative...including the prime time number. This is why I say that your use of the term record is very, very odd. If an ad runs at 8:00 PM tonight it will go up 1. I track EVERY HOUR OF EVERY DAY. Trust me,

    The bottom line is....As usual you are demonstrating that the data is beyond your grasp....lol Sorry to be flippant, but clearly you are not reading the data correctly. Hint, the numbers are cumulative.

    There is a scene in Modern Family where Dylan is at the ranch and says, "I've never been this far away from home" He then takes a step and says, "now I've never been this far" That is what you are doing with your "records".

    http://bit.ly/1r4WyVE


    If you have an account with iSpot and have not dug into it, then that is YOUR shortcoming.

    By the way, ads have run over 9,000 times. The REAL data gives regional information as well. There have been 740 total prime time ads run.
    Nov 24, 2014. 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation, Nash, Combination Belviq-Phentermine, Free Belviq Samples [View article]
    Brian.....

    "Works twice as well as Chantix with no weight gain"

    This is not even close to being a factual statement based on the data we have. You should really check how you do your math (and I am no fan of Chantix).
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air [View article]
    Foghorn....

    In no way am I trying to belittle your success. I think it is great. I just want to offer some clarity on the fact that weight loss in general brings about many health improvements. Whether Belviq, another product, or no product, getting healthy is what its all about
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air [View article]
    dax....

    LOL...

    I always get a little nervous when people over-emphasize some things.

    About 5 months ago I listened to presentations at an investor conference. I heard Vivus present, then Orexigen, then Arena. A three presented "diabetes" and "pre-diabetes" information. The most "impressive" numbers were Qsymia, then Orexigen, then Arena, in that order.

    Thus, when I hear an investor go down that path, I always respond with an element of caution. I would venture to say that there are more than a few Arena investors that have no idea that these other drugs can have very similar (if not better) attributes when it comes to these things. In my opinion the same may well hold true with the newly touted favorite subject of NASH.

    This sounds snide, but any weight loss can improve A1C scores, NASH scores, Joint pain, bone breaks, blood pressure, sleep, etc., etc., etc.

    example of qsymia

    http://bit.ly/1pYRbmw
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air [View article]
    dax...

    All of these weight loss drugs have shown positive diabetes results. Then again, losing weight by any means can help these numbers. I do not think you will see Belviq marketed as a diabetes drug, nor do I think you will see Contrave or Qsymia. I do think you will see all three speak to the benefits on diabetes numbers.

    Victoza and Invokana use in their ads that they are not weight loss drugs, but may help a person lose weight. I think that we could see a similar strategy with these drugs. They are not diabetes drugs, but can help your numbers. I brought up the concept in a Victoza piece last year and an Invokana piece this year.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air [View article]
    dax....

    Are you referring to this:

    "It does happen that Belviq seems to have the fewest (or mildest) side effects, which is very positive for the concept of Belviq as a weight loss product."
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation, Nash, Combination Belviq-Phentermine, Free Belviq Samples [View article]
    Joseph....

    Blockbuster is $1 billion in 1 year. Chantix never achieved that (Pfizer SEC filings show that to be the case). It would have reached blockbuster if the negatives did not happen. It achieved its peak just prior to the negatives, which impacted sales.

    It is no secret that I find the concept of Belviq for smoking cessation to be far and away more compelling than the phentermine study and I have felt that way for quite some time.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air [View article]
    dax....

    I think that the crystal ball will get more clear as a bit of time passes. Can't wait to see the design of the next study.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air [View article]
    foghorn....

    Congratulations on your great results.

    There is some anecdotal evidence that Belviq itself can help things like A1C levels. We do need to remember that simply losing weight (by any method) can improve these numbers. In contrast, both Contrave and Qsymia offer compelling results on the numbers as well. I do not mean to belittle the benefits. Losing weight has MASSIVE benefits across the board. We see it with NASH. The point I am making is that there are people taking Qsymia with stories similar to yours. There are people taking no drug at all with similar stories. The same is true with phentermine.

    Investors need to be careful not to assume that improving these numbers is unique to Belviq. Belviq is one of several vehicles that can improve a persons numbers. It does happen that Belviq seems to have the fewest (or mildest) side effects, which is very positive for the concept of Belviq as a weight loss product.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation, Nash, Combination Belviq-Phentermine, Free Belviq Samples [View article]
    Joseph.....

    A picture does not mean you understand what you are looking at. You may very well understand it, in which case your use of the term record is very odd. You state:

    "Arna's partner Eisai is the only FDA-approved weight loss drug being promoted directly to consumers on TV. On November 23, 2014, iSpot shows Eisai is stepping up marketing, with a record 7,652 national airings and 540 prime time airings"

    The New England Patriots have played 831 regular season games. Next week they will play game 832....a new record. The week after that they will play game number 833...a new record. The week after that they will play game number 834...a new record. With each passing moment you establish a new record in the number of breaths you have taken since being born.

    Do you see dynamic here. Will you characterize a "record" happening with each passing hour? A new record can be set 50 times a day.

    The fact is that advertising has stepped down from its peak (I wish that this was not the case, but it is). They are advertising....that is good. Let's not characterize the current situation as a "record" when the pace over the last 6 weeks has been 40% of what they were doing at peak.

    Eisai did step up its advertising in September. Since then, they have throttled back on their advertising.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq And Smoking Cessation - Clearing The Air [View article]
    bellina....

    I think that a major issue was the slower than anticipated launch. I do not want to say that Eisai simply thought that they could "mail-it-in", but I think they were anticipating revenues that were substantially stronger than what we saw.

    What happens when revenues do not meet expectations?

    Everyone looks at things more closely and everyone needs to tighten their belt. That means figuring out what to spend money on. It means that the path to profits must come more slowly.

    Jack is not the most polished speaker, but in the end this drug is in the hands of Eisai. The management and marketing of Belviq is the torch that Eisai needs to hoist and run with. Arena is essentially powerless to compel Eisai to move any different than they are moving.
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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