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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    no new ad. Its the same one
    Aug 23, 2015. 06:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    You really love to spin. I gotta hand that to you.


    Net sales of Belviq last quarter were $12 million. Arena got 31.5%.
    Net sales of Contrave last quarter were $16 million. Orexigen got 20%

    Arena pays to manufacture and package Belviq.
    Orexigen supplies Contrave and Orexigen packages and distributes.

    Reveniue from sales last quarter between the two (Arena and Orexigen was in the same neighborhood)

    Bel-Phen has gone no-where. The only people hanging their hat on that are the ones that look for golden buckets at the end of rainbows.

    Last quarter belviq was about $21 per script. Contrave was $18. Please define a significant margin? yes, the wholesale side drives this, but belviq wholesales numbers are trending down while Contrave is trending up. The numbers do not lie. Ask yourself why Belviq sold more pills, but net sales were lower than Contrave.

    If you think the delta between $18 and 21% is a "significant margin" at about 19% above, what do you call takedas margin over Eisai?

    little bit of math.

    Contrave - $16 million in net sales on the sale of 172,000 scripts = $93.02 net per script/

    Belviq - $12.1 million in net sales on sale of 182,000 scripts = 66.49 per script.

    Gee, Takeda mus outsell Eisai by a "massively huge margin" because the delta there is over 40% as compared to 19% being characterized as "significant"

    You are correct, script numbers are not revenue, but you need to realize that no revenue happens if there are no script numbers
    Aug 23, 2015. 06:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Will Pace Lower Than Last Year [View article]

    I have heard about such things. Personally, I do not think that the efforts will be a success. I feel that it may be the right time in the near future for Jack to retain a chairman role and pass the torch of CEO, but that time may not be here for another 18 months or so.
    Aug 23, 2015. 06:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Dip Again. We Have Seen The Peak In 2015 [View article]

    Shareholder activism can be a good thing, but can also be a bad thing. It is not an easy path. There is a specific process to nominating board members, and that is lengthy. Unless a group can represent at least 5% of the shares (better yet, 10%), the odds of accomplishing much of anything are very, very, very small. This means needing to attract big institutional shareholders. The odds of big institutional shareholders wanting message board posters (even if they are intelligen) to represent their interest is very, very, very minimal.

    I would say that the odds of seeing an Activist group nomination even getting on the ballot are about 99.9% against. The odds of that person going onto the board are 99.9% against.

    Jack may very well be already thinking of slowing down and moving to a chairman role. That plan was set in motion years ago when he was slated to slow down his role.

    I know a person that took on the role of being an activist. He lost his wife, saw his business erode, and spent countless hours at this. It became all consuming. If you were to ask him today if all of that time and effort were worth it, he would say no. The idea was noble, but the reality is that noble ideas are just that....noble. Reality is far different.

    Ask yourself this.

    We're shareholders supportive ge when Eisai was announced as a partner? Yes
    We're shareholders supportive of the notion that sales would be $150 million to $200 million in the first year? Yes
    We're shareholders supportive of 150 reps? Yes
    We're shareholders supportive when reps were 300? Yes
    We're shareholders supportive when it was 450 reps and a print campsign started? Yes
    We're shareholders supportive when it became 600 reps and a TV ad campsign started! Yes

    It was not until it was clear tha sales were low despite all of this that shareholders started complaining. The complaining is in hindsight for mist of these activists.
    What path will a new CEO take that is already not bring considered by the current CEO?

    Amazingly, within this very sector,new have what transpired with Vivus yo look at. A total takeover and board shake up. What did that fo for Vivus? Not much.

    An activist that fails to look at all facets with the identical eye is an activist that can be far more destructive than constrictive.

    I would go into more depth, but am sure I will be attacked for even the little I have written here.
    Aug 22, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Slower-Than-Needed Qsymia Sales Do Not Offer Hope [View article]

    I think you were dropped on your head. Go back and look at my opinion on vivus from a couple of years ago. It is all there in black and white. Please don't tell you blindly believe message board mantra out there.

    Grow up
    Aug 20, 2015. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics Delisting Process Starts - What Investors Need To Consider [View article]

    Extensions are only granted if a plan is in place to correct compliance. Typically the reverse split is that plan
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics Delisting Process Starts - What Investors Need To Consider [View article]

    For you did not read, you have no place making such a comment.

    Do you have something relevant to say?

    Run along, or be relevant.
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Mishap For Netflix [View article]

    Can you read? I had no position of any sort in Netflix and never had one.

    I am a bit miffed about the hostility you exhibit four years later. The equity lagged after this piece, and the advise of the wait until after the quarter to asses.
    Aug 18, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Dip Again. We Have Seen The Peak In 2015 [View article]
    10 bagger.....

    While there are those that are indeed lazy, the bigger issue is that their thinking is not correct. People do not understand proper portions, and have trained themselves to think that if they walk the stairs that they are getting exercise. They also do not understand the dynamics of losing weight and keeping it off. They see a pill help them shed pounds for three months and then stop losing weight. After three months the work required to lose weight gets harder, not easier. Some convince themselves that these pills are magic and they simply lose weight by taking them. When they hit a wall, they think the pill no longer works.

    The reality is that even 5% weight loss is beneficial, and these pills can actually help maintain that weight loss.

    It is a matter of education about proper diet and exercise, discipline, and people having the ability to admit to themselves that they are not doing things properly. These days, being overweight is the new norm. The lack of social and peer pressure to address weight, the motivation is all but gone.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Dip Again. We Have Seen The Peak In 2015 [View article]

    The consumer awareness aspect has two parts.

    Part 1 - a lack of awareness just like you explained

    part 2 - a lack of awareness that losing the weight and keeping it off by continuing to take the drug is what is best. There are many that drop 5%, plateau, and then stop taking the drug because they feel it no longer works. The lack of awareness should be a critical aspect of any consumer or doctor campsign.

    I think what we see is that Belviq works well for 25% of the people. Works okay for the next 25%, and does not really work for the last half.
    Aug 17, 2015. 05:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen- Contrave Sales Win The Week But Still Flatter Than Needed [View article]

    Orexigen does manufacture. Takeda packages and distributes.

    Takeda sYs orexigen a percentage of net sales. Last quarter net sales were $16 million. Orexigen got $3.1 million of that There were 172,000 scripts sold last quarter.

    In essence, orexigen traded higher royalty on an ongoing basis for lump sums of about $150 million up front and upon launch.
    Aug 17, 2015. 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen- Contrave Sales Win The Week But Still Flatter Than Needed [View article]

    Arena makes Belviq and sells at specified minimum prices.

    Takeda buys Contrave from orexigen. Takeda lack ages Contrave. Thus afjustment was made in 2013. Takeda may elect to manufacture.
    Aug 17, 2015. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation Opportunity [View article]

    What email was not allowed? Are you suggesting that I have any control over comments and emails? I do not.

    Go find black helicopters!
    Aug 15, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation Opportunity [View article]

    trials are expensive to run, but lets be real here. The cost of the trial is not really a concern of Arena, and is more of a concern from Eisai.

    The bel=phen trial is a virtual NO-GO and always has been. Every indication and assumption has always been that if the FDA wants a huge trial to test with phen in an actual combo pill, that it would not happen. This is why they small trial they did was simply co-administered with phen. Bel-phen gets weight loss to high dose Qsymia levels, but not much more. We already know that efficacy in these neighborhoods is simply not wowing consumers.

    The concept here was that these pills would be long term use. The reality is that the average person stays on for just three months, see's a plateau, and comes off of the pill.

    More cash needed is pretty much a foregone conclusion. This company keeps the balance no lower than about $100 million and burns $25 million per quarter. More cash is in the next 12 months of so from the end of Q2.

    Can the cash be from a partnership? Sure, but is that likely between now and then? Not really. If an early partner wanted 334 they would have done the deal already and Arena would not be footing the bill for the trial. Thus, it is more likely a partner will not be landed until after that data is collected and trial closed.
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation Opportunity [View article]

    The stock went from an overvalued spec lay, which would carry higher short interest and liver institutional ownership to a company measured by the results of sales.

    Are you one of the people that felt that there were 60 million "trapped shorts?

    It is quite interesting that you select the timeline you do. Most of the shift in the short interest and institutional ownership happened over the past 12 to 15 months. Look at the stock price in that window. Look at the sales numbers.

    Do you think 911 was an inside job?

    Do you think we never went to the moon?

    Is the market "played". Yes. Do smart investors understand this and consider it? Yes. What do naive investors do? Sit back and say that all of the problems are manipulation.
    Aug 14, 2015. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment