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Spencer Osborne

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  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Bio....

    Blockbuster is $1 billion in 1 year. The pace for 2014 is looking to be $150 million. This is not at all likely to be blockbuster in 2015.
    Apr 7 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Os good....

    Internet and magazines have been in play for months now.

    If you want to see if such things make a drug a household name, ask the first 10 people you see if they have heard of victoza. They have had ads for a while. Likely all 10 people will not know what it is.

    Ads are great, but they are simply a part of a long term process...not a three month process
    Apr 7 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Max....

    That has been my opinion for a long time..

    Step 1 - PROPER diet and PROPER exercise. I bold proper because the road is littered with people that "say" the did proper, but did not even come close.

    That is wh I have long said that a doctor scripting a pill for someone that is 30 pounds overweight is not really being responsible....nor is the patient. In that situation both are being lazy (in my opinion).
    Apr 6 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Heft has been going on for years. They have been "cracking down" for years.
    Apr 6 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Sandman....

    What I am saying is that the numbers I have been using all along gave not been modified. The data is exactly as it has been.
    Apr 5 11:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Sp500....

    In some ways, the raw figures are meaningless. It has been proven out over time that the adjustments I made in the beginning were correct. It has also proven out that the lower adjustments after each quarter were the correct thing to do. The goal here is to assess as close as possible to actual sales. IMS and symphony will get better at that over time. That means the upward adjustment should be less as time passes. That is all that I did, and the numbers prove out.

    I do not do what I do to make things look one way or the other. I do what I do to assess the sales as correctly as possible. Too many people want it to look pretty even if it is not.
    Apr 5 11:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Os good...

    It is simply not very likely. Too many people are expecting too much.
    Apr 5 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    shana...

    Actually it is about 25k per week for the $150 million pace
    Apr 5 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    HS...

    The Bel/Phen study timeline is not really on the table. More importantlt, and something many people do not consider, is how Arena can profit from Bel/Phen.

    Why pay $250 for a month of a Bel/Phen combo pill when you can spend $150 a month for Bel and $25 a month for a separate phen tablet?

    It is not about whether Bel/Phen will work...it is about how Eisai and Arena can make money from it.
    Apr 5 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Sandman...

    I do not know the budget, but I do know that it needs to fit within the parameters that make business sense for Eisai. By example, if we are looking at $150 million in gross sales, the add budget may be several million, but not necessarily tens of millions.
    Apr 5 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    david....

    In my opinion television ads would be much less of a catalyst for short covering than something like an approval in another country. Television ads are fine, but I am not expecting it to change the dynamics of the equity overnight.

    Also, many short positions are simply hedge plays.
    Apr 5 04:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    PAC....

    Hopefully the third time is the charm....no modification made to data nor chart. Simply removed the projection line for march 31
    Apr 4 10:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Find...

    No modification to the chart
    Apr 4 05:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Sp500...

    I have not changed my chart at all. Not in the slightest. The only thing I did was remove the $60 million sales line (which sales came short of). The adjusted numbers are still exactly the same.
    Apr 4 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    osgood...

    The next numbers are for 4-4, then 4-11, then 4-18.

    Reasonably speaking getting from the current Symphony level of about 9,100 to 11,500 in three weeks is a bit of a stretch. Getting to 13,000 is a big stretch.
    Apr 4 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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