Seeking Alpha

Spencer Osborne

 
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  • Weighing Options On Arena [View instapost]
    Sedric....

    I sleep fine at night....LOL.

    I put much more on private than I do on SA. I like it that way.
    Aug 10 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Tig.....

    I am not saying that you are stupid. In fact, you have asked meaningful questions that many here do not take the time to think about in a deeper manner. Kind of like the people foolish enough to say that Qsymia scripts should be cut in half. These people do not think critically enough. You are thinking along the critical lines and that should be commended.
    Aug 10 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Script Data - Thoughts [View instapost]
    jakes....

    Nope....not at this stage. I like other companies better right now.
    Aug 10 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Dax....

    I do not know what types of coverage there was and whether fen was covered.

    What I do know is that the current humedica study was designed to assess the fact that new obesity treatments were headed to msrket
    Aug 10 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Tig.....

    I think you are missing the point.

    Even though we know thT the data collection has its flaws with regard to refills, it is consistent in how it is collected. Because it is consistent we can track changes.

    A reason that I track refills for members of my website and not here is because too many people get hung up looking at the wrong things here.

    As I have said, and will say again....I AM FULLY AWARE of the flaws in the data. It is not worth my time, effort, or energy to go about my methodology of assessing refills on this site. I do take the time to do it on my site. In fact, I typically cover refills on Mondays, advertising on Wednesdays, and scripts on Fridays.
    Aug 10 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Dax....

    It is a different time.

    Money was flowing better then than it is now. People were much more lose with their money than they are now.

    "Go ahead and buy that novelty....you can invest in a dot com and get more money"

    In addition, the amount of weight people carry that is deemed "acceptable" has gone up over time. We get bombarded with communications telling us to be more accepting of people the way they are.

    People simply have a different mindset today with regard to many things.

    There seems to be less disposable income these days. You house and you cars often take up over half of household income when you consider these items themselves and operating them.

    It is what it is. While not scientific, I have queried several people that are a bit overweight about the concept of a pill ( not specific) that would allow the lists of 20 to 30 pounds when used with proper diet and exercise. They are intrigued. I tell them that it helps control appetite. I then ask them what they would pay per month. Most people I know (these people make good money and are upper-middle class) reply with a number at less than $50. The fact of the matter is that many feel that their extra pounds are not really severe...even at 30 pounds overweight.
    Aug 10 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Yitzi....

    Entry, exit, etc are not typical for each investor.

    That being said, I feel arena is near a bottom. Personally arena is a very small portion of my portfolio, so my safety factor on my overall portfolio is higher than someone that sinks half their money or more into an equity. In my opinion the price target on this is $8 in a year with a high side of $10. That is about a double. There are other equities that will perform much better than that and with a higher degree of safety.
    Aug 10 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Tig.....

    As I stated....li am well aware of that dynamic. In fact, I use it my refill analysis published weekly on my website. What I am saying is that, despite this imperfection, we can still track changes. As an example I will cite the severe over-reporting that we see with Symphony numbers. Despite the imperfection, we can still see and track changes.
    Aug 10 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Sedric....

    I agree that phen is a 12 week cycle. That being said, most are well aware that people do not follow that guideline. Setting that aside, the seasonality of phen peaks in June and tapers from there downward through december
    Aug 10 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Jakes...

    Just for clarity....I do not have a position in IMS.

    IMS has a ton of data.
    Aug 9 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    West.....

    I will take a stab.

    Companies that show up on yahoo (seeking alpha motley fool, etc) had to pay yahoo to get their material posted there.

    Seeking alpha made a business decision based on traffic obtained from yahoo vs. overall traffic to the site. Over time seeking alpha has grown in awareness and is becoming a destination site of its own.

    It simply reached a stage where the value if the traffic from yahoo was diminishing while at the same time yahoo wanted more money. Instead of paying yahoo, seeking alpha has made the determination that it will focus that money to contributors.

    It has long been known that the quality of reader from yahoo finance is well below the quality of readers from other sources or direct readers. The quality of yahoo readers has gone down over time. That is not to say that every reader from yahoo is of poor quality, but does reflect the fact that yahoo provides a lot of "junk" readers.

    The decision that seeking alpha made was a very sound business decision. They no longer want to okay for junk, and by doing. This have immediately improved the overall perception of seeking alpha as a serious investors platform.
    Aug 9 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Tig.....

    Is your assumption that the person is filling each script is is filling three months in your example? If that is the case, indeed the person would be counted as a new script 4 times and never have a refill. However, given that Belviq, if covered by insurance, has the lowest levels of coverage, I do not see people often buying a 30 day supply and shelling out $600 in one transaction. More likely they will buy it month to month and take advantage if the discount program offered by Eisai. Further, until it is established that the drug will actually work for someone, it makes little sense to buy three months worth.

    In my opinion IMS does a very good job about getting to a 1 script equals 1 bottle by scrubbing the data better. They can not remove the dynamic of a refill being counted as a new script, but they at least get close to 1 script equalling 1 bottle.

    Even with the imperfections in the refill vs. new script dynamic, the method is consistent. Therefore we can still track changes.

    It appears that either refills are lower than expected, or that people are not averaging a long period of time on the pill. The reasons why are an important factor we want to assess. Is it efficacy that is too good, efficacy that is bad, cost, or, or something else?
    Aug 9 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Jakes....

    Both were hedge fund owned. The Areniacs LOVED to accuse IMS of nefarious things because IMS was owned by a hedge fund. The funny thing is that BOTH were owned by hedge funds.

    I do not have a stake in IMS, but it does have a compelling business.

    Regarding Symphony.....Simply stated, they have sales at a number that simply is not possible given that far fewer bottles have been shipped than they report in sales. As I have said in the past, I think they do not account for the half bottles (free scripts) well.
    Aug 9 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Scripts Flat For Arena [View article]
    sb....

    From current levels, the 10,800 scrips would grow to 17,600 in 52 weeks.

    The revenue to Arena would be $24 million.

    Arena needs more than $24 million a year to finance the operations and pipeline
    Aug 9 01:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]
    Sedric....

    phentermine
    Aug 9 01:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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