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Spencer Osborne

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  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    osgood....

    There is plenty of information out there that neither Arena, nor Eisai have spoken to. Heck, Arena has a slew of patents that they have in various stages of application and approval that they do not put out a PR on.
    Mar 31 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    new....

    I think that the price is appropriate considering the longer term goals. Rebates can take care of the consumer acceptance without giving up too much for what the company wants to get from insurance companies.
    Mar 31 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Zino...

    Aricept launched in January 1997.
    Mar 31 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Jim....

    I have stated many times that consumer awareness needs to be bigger. That still does not change the fact that people are only willing to pay certain amounts of money for a drug. Insurance is the biggest key.

    There are many investors that are looking for fast and dramatic impact. Heck, JD is expecting ads to bring on sales 9x faster with ads.

    Jim. Might I suggest that you take a look at what pharma spends its money on. Detailing doctors is the biggest part of the pie. If DTC was the big driver to profits, then we would see DTC campaigns taking up much more of the budget than they do. I hope that you understands this.

    Now let's look at $125 million in sales and what that means to Arena.

    $125,000,000 in gross sales.....Net sales is about 55% of gross....Arena gets 31.5% of Net

    That would mean that $125 million in gross sales would equate to $68,750,000. That would but the Arena Share at $21.6 million

    As to the concept of scripts vs. bottles. I do get the concept. I account for it. I have explained this to you many times now.

    As to distribution. I do understand how it works....very well.
    Mar 31 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    User....

    I do not delete anything. I have no control over comments here
    Mar 31 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Yerma....

    Perhaps I could have worded better.

    Lorc/phen will likely have a smaller market then lorc alone.

    The reason is that it may take patients out of the mix from prescriptions for one thing. If you can take Belviq, but not phen, you will not be able to use lot phen.

    Further, if Belviq alone does not work, so a doctor wants to combine with phen, why would a person simply not see of phen alone works before trying the combo?

    Think about this

    You go to the doctor and try Belviq. It does not work for you, yet cost you $150. The doctor brings up the combo. Your cost would now be $175. Or, you simply try phen at a cost of $25.
    Mar 31 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Super....

    There is a lot of other things in the mix, such as approvals, arrival of competitors, etc.

    Setting that aside, $150 million in sales can set a foundation at $10 from which to build on. That means a price target of $12 is pretty reasonable
    Mar 31 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    New....

    There are advantages to safety. There are advantages to efficacy...there are advantages to cost...there are advantages to which ones should and should not be taken with other drugs.

    By example....if you are on an SSRI, which is a doctor likely to script?
    Mar 31 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Jakes...

    I have it on good authority that we will heal something on a day that ends with the letter "y".

    Seriously though...I would think that we could hear something any time now. That being said, it could take another 6 months. It is simply something we need to be ready for.
    Mar 30 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Joseph...

    I use 100 million...Eisai uses about 100 million.

    Stating who qualifies is quite subjective. Look at the SSRI issue.

    Certainly a person on SSRI's can take the drug.....however, the label has some very specific warnings against using Belviq when on an SSRI.

    Now, how many of the 100 million are also on SSRI'S?

    About 12% of the population over age 12 take them. 23% of women between 40 and 59 take them.

    Point being...it is not as simple as saying that any overweight person is a Belviq, Qsymia, or Contrave candidate.
    Mar 30 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    New...

    Pricing is a tough game when insurance is involved. Eisai has the right track at the moment. Set the price high and offer rebates. Those that have trouble with the price can get a rebate.

    The goal is to get insurance to cover most of the cost. Setting a lower bar now will make it harder to get insurance to pay more later.
    Mar 30 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    yossi...

    Lorc/Phen is available now...as in today.

    We do not yet know if the company is going to market a combo pill.

    Lorc/Phen does not increase the potential market. In fact, it can be reasonably argued that it decreases the potential market.

    What matters is sales that translate into revenue for Arena and those invested in Arena. Will lorc/phen increase sales? Will it increase cost? Will it help the bottom line?

    I would love for the Lorc/Phen cheer-leaders to put out some numbers on sales expectations as it relates to sales, revenue, and cost. They wont though
    Mar 30 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Super....

    400 reps now....600 by July 1
    Mar 30 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    Os good....

    "Cash on hand is worth $30....peers trade at 20 to 30"

    Didn't I suggest that you provide some examples of these peers a week ago? Didn't you nit provide that? Why do you not substantiate your claim?

    The reason is that you cant
    Mar 30 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Scripts, Ads, Sales Reps [View article]
    New....

    I believe that the company should charge whatever it can. Price is tricky right now. If the price is lowered prior to getting insurance to cover, then it is difficult to go back the other way.

    The percentage of people that will buy a drug at $50 out of pocket or less is much greater than there that will pay $100 or more. I covered this in past articles.

    Belviq is "expensive", but right now (until they can get to insurance levels they need to), it is appropriate to maintain the high price
    Mar 30 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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