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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena's Smoking Cessation Opportunity [View article]

    Thanks for catching that. I did pull the transcript, and clearly either someone mis-spoke, or the transcriber made an error. I have clarified the quote.

    I do not believe there are problems with the XR version. Further, a study could have been developed with XR as part of it.

    From the Q1 call:

    "We recently announced the completion of two registration of clinical trials of our once-daily extended release formulation of lorcaserin, which is planned to be marketed under the brand name, BELVIQ XR in the US after approval. We are working with Eisai to complete a new drug application for BELVIQ XR and plan to submit it to the FDA later this year."

    Unless we get a "researching the U.S. market" type update on the next call, I think they are on track to submit in the next several months
    Aug 12, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation Opportunity [View article]

    1. You reported something months ago. I was covering the smoking cessation aspect of this drug well over a year ago. Further, the shift in Eisai strategy only happened in the last few months. Lastly, the statement about delaying the trial did not happen until a little over a week ago.

    2. Rain on an up day? I wrote this article YESTERDAY EVENING.....long before we knew whether today would be an "up day". Think about this with LOGIC for just a few seconds, and you will come to the realization that your "theory" is simply off base.

    3. The size of my long position does not matter. Never has. Further, the number of shares I own is meaningless in terms of my "commitment" unless measured against my overall wealth. I have disclosed that Arena makes up about 5% of my portfolio.

    4. This article is not negative unless you are not comprehending what you are reading.

    5. My having an investment in the equity does not change what I write or cover. By example, I did not own the equity in the Fall of last year, but still covered the space.

    6. You can doubt whatever you desire. That does not make your thoughts true, relevant, or even intelligent.

    7. Try to have a good day. Look for some reading comprehension classes on line, and lastly, do not allow me to occupy so much of your thought process. I am flattered that you dedicate so much gray matter to me, but feel that perhaps you should put your brain to work in other areas.

    Hope this helps
    Aug 12, 2015. 04:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Smoking Cessation Opportunity [View article]


    APD334 has nothing to do with smoking cessation.
    Aug 12, 2015. 03:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics Now Faces De-Listing Process - What Investors Need To Consider [View article]

    Thank you for the kind words. In all of my writing I simply try to keep things real. It is not always what people want to hear, but it is likely what people need to hear.
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After An EPS Beat And A Revenue Miss, Arena Is A Wait And See Stock [View article]

    Refer to the earnings call transcript. It is available here on Seeking Alpha. Essentially they said they do not expect to have the study filled until mid next year.

    The way trials work is this.

    The trial is designed and trial centers are selected. They enroll patients on an ongoing basis. They collect data on an ongoing basis. When all data is collected it is assessed and tabulated.

    Let's assume that a trial need 10 participants and would last a year. If they got patients at a rate of 1 per year, the trial would not finish until 10 years from now, even though the first person completed it in year one.

    This trial has 120 locations and 240 patients. The company has said that it anticipates full enrollment by mid 2016. The trial is 12 weeks. If we assume the last patient enrolls in June of 2016, they would finish in August. Thus leaves September, October, November, and December to assess, tabulate, and deliver results by year end of 2016.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics Now Faces De-Listing Process - What Investors Need To Consider [View article]

    The company will likely have no recourse, and will need to conduct it well before late 2016. NASDAQ does not allow time to extend that long unless there are some compelling reasons.
    Aug 11, 2015. 12:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics Now Faces De-Listing Process - What Investors Need To Consider [View article]

    Some quick notes.

    1. There seems to be a shift from surgeons "certified" to surgeons "trained". It may be nothing, or it may be something quite big. It is a certified surgeon that has one or two (not 5 as you state) supervised surgeries.

    "EnteroMedics' bariatric center selection, training and certification process follows a defined protocol that includes rigorous center qualification criteria and didactic and surgical training. Once the center criteria are met, the Company's field staff trains the surgeon and staff on vBloc Therapy, theory of operation, and program implementation. This is followed by procedure and system operation training and one or two supervised surgeries, after which the surgeon is certified."

    While I hesitate to call the training a ruber stamp, I find it curios that on march 31st the number of centers was 15 and surgeons trained was 19. The process is said by the company to be a "rigorous" process that lasts 2 to 3 months.

    How is it that On April 1st the company was at this state " of the end of the first quarter of 2015, supporting the company's goal of training 20-25 vBloc Therapy centers and physicians by the end of 2015."

    yet, just 4 months later we have We have 51 centers certified and 77 surgeons trained to implant our vBloc Therapy. Is there enough staff to certify and tran these numbers in the timeframe given? Or is the certification a rubber stamp of sorts? Clearly your assessment that 385 procedures having been done is way off the mark. By the companies own words, the training of a doctor and the certification of a doctor are two different things.

    At this stage, investors should be asking the following:

    1. What are the criteia for certifying a center?
    2. What is the criteria for VAC at a center?
    3. Why are only half of the certified centers complete with VAC?
    4. What training does a doctor get? Does training involve participation with actual surgeries, video, or what?
    5. What is the difference between a trained doctor and a certified doctor?

    Why do I cover the delisting? Because I get scads of people asking questions. Yes, those that understand it may not find an article covering it as very revealing. However, there are many that are still very confused and want to understand it better.

    New analysis.....

    - difference between "trained and certified"
    - There is no way that 385 procedures have been done given the numbers in the financials.
    - What exactly is the "certification process" for a center
    - why are half not fully developed in VAC process?
    Aug 11, 2015. 12:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics Now Faces De-Listing Process - What Investors Need To Consider [View article]

    I am sorry for your circumstance. I am not a certified financial advisor, and thus can not offer individual advise on such matters. I would encourage you to speak to a certified person that can assess your entire situation. Even if I were a CFA, I would need a lot more information to assess what you are asking. They will typically look at your overall worth, portfolio, age, etc. and help you determine what types of investing is right for you. Many things come into play. The brokerage firm you invest with may have someone that can help out with your individual question.

    From an overall perspective, I see this as a highly speculative stock that has many challenges ahead.
    Aug 11, 2015. 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics Now Faces De-Listing Process - What Investors Need To Consider [View article]

    Insider buys at this stage and at just $23k each will not really amount to a vote of confidence.

    The dilution deal was a disaster. They raised half of the money they wanted to raise, and that is widely known now. Digging their way out of this will not be easy, and will only happen if sales ramp up. Treating the number of procedures like it is a state secret was another disaster. If the numbers were impressive, you can bet your bottom dollar that they would tout it.

    Aug 11, 2015. 10:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Dip - Other Countries Critical In Driving Stock Price [View article]

    I think that they are likely to do some print activities and think they should. Television will be another matter.

    Takeda seems to get more bang for the buck than Eisai in general.

    Takeda had net sales of $16 million on script sales of 172,000 in Q2.
    Eisai had net sales of $12 million on script sales of 183,000 in Q2
    Aug 11, 2015. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After An EPS Beat And A Revenue Miss, Arena Is A Wait And See Stock [View article]

    The trial won't be full until mid next year and data will not be available until late 2016. Did you listen to the quarterly call?
    Aug 11, 2015. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Dip - Other Countries Critical In Driving Stock Price [View article]

    I would not characterize it as fruitless. There is some correlation between advertising level and moves in scripts. Whether it bears enough fruit is the question. Eisai does a lot of middle of the night ads and advertises on channels that are not as popular. What Takeda has the benefit of is seeing what Eisai did and trying something a bit different. Takeda seems to have a better net sales number per bottle than Eisai, so they perhaps have more wiggle room as well
    Aug 11, 2015. 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Trend - Investors Need Caution [View article]

    The combo with phen has always been a nuance that will likely never happen. Studies will be to costly. Was it worth posing a question to the FDA? Yes. Personally, I think that the company simply does not want to say that they are not really chasing it.

    The smoking issue is, in my opinion, a catastrophe. The study already done showed good promise. There was discussion of a quick follow through. Assessing the market???? In my opinion that answer was unmitigated BS. The market is known. Something else is causing the pause. Smoking is their closest second indication and they are pausing it. They should have been wrapping up this study by now. Instead, they will not start up until next year.

    The quote about talking to multiple parties.....I find it typical. Arena could attribute the exact same quote to every quarter it has had in the lady decade. It is no more special than Sony records saying they are talking to many musicians.
    Aug 10, 2015. 10:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Trend - Investors Need Caution [View article]

    The reality is that an actual combo pill Is not likely and never has been. The study costs are a big hurdle. Further, the combo pill would not change the sales dynamics much. Yes, some say it would, but reality speaks volumes
    Aug 10, 2015. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Slower-Than-Needed Qsymia Sales Do Not Offer Hope [View article]

    The insanity is the fact that you went from an assumption of 115 million people to 15 million people and do not consider that a very, very, very, very, very, very gross miscalculation on your part. Let's review what you said:

    "By providing 115 million beneficiaries with low cost Obesity Drug coverage it will jump start sales, not to mention the private sector will be forced to respond with similar coverage."

    I do not know how much more CLEAR I CAN BE.

    The Treat and Reduce Obesity Act will not put a meaningful dent into how these drugs sell. Because you do not seem to have a handle on how these drugs are selling and why these sales are so challenged, you can not comprehend why this bogus legislation will not deliver sales.

    FACT - People only stay on these drugs for about 3 months
    FACT - Free meal plans are already available
    FACT - Free council ling is already available
    FACT - These branded pills can be had for about $15 per month for the financially less fortunate.

    Despite these FACTS, sales suck. What makes you think that legislation that mandates something that is already in place will change things???? Is it because management said so? If so, go look at management saying sales wouyld be good, that they will find a partner, that insurance would catch on, etc. etc. etc.

    The legislation sucks because it does not address core issues. The legislation, even if it passes, will not impact sales because it does not address the reason sales already suck.


    If this drug can not sell in an open market, what is it about a free market that will change these dynamics.
    Aug 10, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment