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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip But Gain A Bit In Market Share [View article]
    Rt1.....

    I have a limited amount of time to cover things and need to budget that time carefully. Further, I do not get the script numbers of Stendra with a level of consistency that allows for similar coverage
    Jun 11, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales And Market Share Dip, Projections Well Off Of Goals [View article]
    Sedric......

    The script data can give a decent indication, and at this juncture the indication is that people are not staying on the drug long enough.

    Whether a person finishes a script or not does not really matter in the quest to find out how long the average person stays on. It is not like they can return the unused portion. For thye purposes of investment, the bottle, once bought, is a month.

    Another factor in this is people that take 1 pill a day instead of 2. With that happening, the 60 count bottle lasts 2 months. That was not the intent of the model, but it is happening.
    Jun 10, 2015. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Sales Dip With Holiday But Grab A Bit Of Market Share [View article]
    J.....

    Companies do not always put an ASM on line, or even offer a transcript.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales And Market Share Dip, Projections Well Off Of Goals [View article]
    Readers.....

    After several emails from what must be overly passionate Arena investors filled with excuses about the refill rate because Belviq is a scheduled drug, I refer these readers to a press release in early January of this year.

    http://bit.ly/1MBsJlD

    Please note that at the time 275,000 people had tried Belviq, there had been 575,000 scripts sold. That means that the average person was on the drug for 2 months.

    For those that think refills can not be tracked.....

    IMS offers many statistics on drugs, and can tell if a person is a refill or is new to the brand. A person with a new script that is actually a refill is something IMS tracks and Arena and Eisai can calculate.

    The bottom line is that Belviq is not sticky enough
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales And Market Share Dip, Projections Well Off Of Goals [View article]
    Mei....

    again. The issue with qsymia is the utterly flat sales trajectory that is an ANCHOR on the equity.

    Over the p[ast 12 weeks Belviq has seen a negative trajectory.

    I have stated many times that sales in this sector SUCK and that the sales of Qsymia suck the most. What part of the concept are you having trouble comprehending?

    You seem to love to pick metrics that fit into your dream world that all is okay with Qsymia sales. LOOK at the lat year of sales! what do you see?

    Why is it that you have so much trouble simply admitting that sales suck and are way behind where they need to be?
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales And Market Share Dip, Projections Well Off Of Goals [View article]
    Mourad....

    I would have no way to know if the FDA will include vaping on the label. The drug is not being tested to reduce vaping, but is tested for cigarettes.
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip But Gain A Bit In Market Share [View article]
    Mace....

    Market share referenced is US.

    South Korea has seen about 22,000 to 23,000 scripts between mid February and the end if may.

    The bottom line is this.

    Belviq sales in the U.S. = what a vacuum cleaner does (suck)
    Contrave sales in the U.S. = what a vacuum cleaner does (suck)
    Qsymia sakes in the U.S. = what 3 vacuum cleaners do (suck a lot)

    Belviq's recent trend is bad
    Contraves recent trend is okay
    Qsymias trend is bad
    Jun 7, 2015. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip But Gain A Bit In Market Share [View article]
    Mace.....

    A partner paying $100 million up front and absorbing costs is by far and away the best path. This is the path that the CEO of Vivus is STILL desperate to obtain. Some Vivus investors, because management has failed to get a partner, want to fool themselves into thinking that not having a partner is better. The key words in what I just said are " fool themselves".
    Jun 7, 2015. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Sales Dip With Holiday But Grab A Bit Of Market Share [View article]
    Tail...

    This issue.....specifically in this sector....goes well beyond.

    The FDA is requiring substantial post marketing studies. Asking the original product to conduct thos e trials while allowing a generic to market is not ethical, right, and does not meet the intent.

    It could be that a court allows genetic to happen, but .....in my opinion, a court will not step on FDA toes. The post marketing trial may fall onto a generic as well. Is offering generic Contrave ir Qsymia worth while ur actavis has to conduct a $200 million CVOT trial? In my opinion this is how the FDA will be allowed to continue keeping these drugs out of generic status. The last thing the FDA wants is companies stepping away from combos that may be beneficial because no one wants to do the studies required fr approval
    Jun 7, 2015. 10:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Sales Dip With Holiday But Grab A Bit Of Market Share [View article]
    Chris....

    In my opinion, in this sector, the only benefit of symphony numbers is knowing how many consumers were exposed to the drug. I agree, I
    The symphony numbers demonstrate that many freebies do not refill.
    Jun 7, 2015. 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip But Gain A Bit In Market Share [View article]
    Me I....


    You can play with yourself all you want.

    Sales of units is critical in the early development of a sector.

    Qsymia is a money loser for Vivus.

    Belviq is a money maker for arena
    Contrave is a money maker for orexigen.

    It's that simple

    Flat sales of Qsymia for a year mean revenue growth is unlikely.
    Jun 6, 2015. 07:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip But Gain A Bit In Market Share [View article]
    Mei....

    You FORGOT to put cost
    Jun 6, 2015. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales And Market Share Dip, Projections Well Off Of Goals [View article]
    Rt1....

    I am well aware of what Stendra is. Typo
    Jun 6, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Sales Dip With Holiday But Grab A Bit Of Market Share [View article]
    J.....

    1. My very very very very very very modest stake in orexigen is not going to change my lifestyle if it goes up 10 fold or goes bankrupt.

    2. I have no SA subscriptions, nor am I really chasing getting them.

    3. I call things the way I see them. I am correct way more often than not.
    Jun 6, 2015. 01:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Sales Dip With Holiday But Grab A Bit Of Market Share [View article]
    J.....

    Please do a little rears u and deal in REALITY.cut the BS.

    The FDA carries a 30 month hold. Yes, a court can overturn it and make it LONGER or SHORTER if the parties act like AHOLES. The parties will not act like AHOLES, and the suit will take at least 30 months to play out. That is reality. Deal with it.
    Jun 6, 2015. 01:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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