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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    George...

    What is the best news? This is a weekly article that tracks script sales. Do you think script sales being down 1% week over week is great news? At this time of year do you think that is great news? Sales are sucking wind. I tell it like it is.

    A pipeline means potential reward and guaranteed cost. Thus....it could be a good thing, or it could be an expensive thing. Arenas pipe is still two years and more away. Phase 2 success is important and not guaranteed. If you are looking for near term appreciation in the stock, it is Belviq sales that will drive it or see it flounder. If you are a long term investor, sit back, hope the pipe pans out and play it that way. I like to invest in companies that give handsome reward on a regular basis and carry less risk. I speculate in companies that have potential and risk. Arena is a speculative okay at this juncture. Anyone in the weight loss sector is speculative.

    Vivus can pop on Stendra. Orexigen can pop on an EU partner and when it passes Belviq in U.S. Sales in the next 8 weeks or do. Arena can pop on something like Eisai selling off rights. Any pops in these equities will be short lived.

    With arena, I am in positive territory. With orexigen I am in negative territory. I am not looking for either to make a massive run soon. It will likely be a long summer.
    May 21, 2015. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Win The Week, But Is It Enough? [View article]
    Counter....

    You are stalking again....stop stalking
    May 21, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Flattening - Europe Needed To Spur Numbers [View article]
    Counter...

    You are stalking again. Stop stalking
    May 21, 2015. 01:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Win The Week, But Is It Enough? [View article]
    R....

    It could certainly be done, but the value of it is not significant. The bottom line is that sales need to increase
    May 21, 2015. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    George...

    Whether you like to hear it or not, combo drugs are new.

    As to safety. It does not always trump all. The safest method for weight loss is proper eating and proper exercise. Putting any of these drugs into the equation is less safe than taking care of the issue naturally. Is Belviq safest for a person taking SSRI's? the label would indicate it is not.

    The safest of these is a relative term. The safest option is the one that a doctor and patient determine based on medical knowledge, medical history, health, other drugs a person is taking, etc.

    The perception is that Belviq is safest and least effective
    The perception is that Contrave is second safest and second in efficacy
    The perception is that Qsymia is least safe and most effective.

    Investors in each of these companies love to tout the high point. Arena investors will preach safety. Qsymia investors will preach efficacy. Contrave investors will tout a middle ground.
    May 21, 2015. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus' Stendra To Get A Re-Launch [View article]
    User....

    Phen is cheap and well understood.
    May 21, 2015. 07:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Flattening - Europe Needed To Spur Numbers [View article]
    Pl....

    Phen does about 170,000 scripts a week and is much less expensive
    May 21, 2015. 12:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Flattening - Europe Needed To Spur Numbers [View article]
    Long....

    I covered that in a previous article. Perhaps....if you did a little research prior to making your comment you would not be trying to remove your foot from your mouth right now.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I do not think that doctors will have a reluctance to script. I am 1,000,000% sure that there are immature Arna and Vivus investors that will want to believe that. They seem to "want" things to be real that are not.

    Should doctors be reluctant to script Belviq because of tumors? Should doctors be reluctant to script Qsymia because of REMS? Let's be real. Doctors will script the drug that is appropriate for the patient. I do not really care which it is. In my opinion doctors will script these drugs to often. Proper diet and exercise is the healthy way to lose weight. A pill is not a solution. It can help give a bit of a push, but unless someone eats right and gets proper amounts of exercise, these drugs will all fail them. We also see doctors that script these drugs like crazy because they have a substantial investment. These doctors will go to great lengths to pump up the stock in immoral and unethical ways. These doctors are the scourge of the earth.

    Orexigen gave leverage to Takeda. It will be resolved in arbitration. Could cost the company a decent chunk of change divided over 7 years.

    Now, kindly read the article where I discussed these matters and then be a big enough person to come back and apologize. That would earn you points in my book.

    Cheers
    May 20, 2015. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Win The Week, But Is It Enough? [View article]
    Mr.....

    I do not think it will go anywhere in the near term. Obamacare has screwed up this nation and healthcare to such an extent that no new healthcare initiative will take hold until after the election and a decision on the fate of Obamacare is handled.

    I do not think legislating is a good solution at all
    May 20, 2015. 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Flattening - Europe Needed To Spur Numbers [View article]
    Tail....

    I am always transparent about my investments. Being transparent allows some to misrepresent them, but those people are typically the ones with lesser intellect and very severe character flaws.

    My orex investment was a play on EU approval and possible catalysts of EU partnerships. I made a small play on it and do not have any real worries. That play is upside down at the moment, so now I will await the aeU partnership and assess what the pop is. A few weeks back my gut was telling me to sell it off because I was dissatisfied with the lack of news on EU front. Should have listened to my gut but didn't. Such is life

    Thank you for the comment.....cheers
    May 20, 2015. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Win The Week, But Is It Enough? [View article]
    Mei.....

    I like your enthusiasm, but the sector sucks at this juncture. The WORST of the bunch is QSYMIA. It's sales suck more than the others. There is no debating this. It is a document fact. Celebrate third place? Not me. First place in this sector is not good enough. Third place is nothing at all to be celebrating.

    I love your repeated attempts to spin, but spinning only results in someone like me pointing out the flaws.

    You love to look at revenue. Blow look at cost. Belviq and Contrave spend NOTHING to market their drugs. Vivus spends multiple millions, and can not muster a campaign big enough to make a material difference.

    If you want to dance this dance, you need to stop the spin. Qsymia sell the least out of all theses products. Vivus spends more than its competitors. Qsymia sales have been essentially fist for a year.

    I will put it plainly again

    Belviq sake = what a vacuum cleaner does (suck)
    Contrave sakes = what a vacuum cleaner does (suck)
    Qsymia sales = what two vacuum cleaners do (sucks even more)
    May 20, 2015. 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    George...

    The news is the news. The data are the data.
    May 20, 2015. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    Mm.....

    I usually have these pieces out on Friday or Monday. I traveled out west Friday, and returned back to the east coast Monday. Wrote this Tuesday. Sometimes my schedule simply does not allow for getting a piece written. My priority over the weekend was to enjoy time with family. I had several requests for my articles to be submitted
    May 20, 2015. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    Rick....

    Sound thinking in my opinion.
    May 20, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    Bock.....

    I have offered my opinion on short interest many times. In the case of Arena the short side has never really been out of what I would consider normal. I do nit really consider any short interest number as being a driver unless the days to cover goes over 10. Short side interest is often driven by specific parameters and trading methods. By example, a short position is off used in straddle type trades or simply as a hedge. With the action in the stock price being what it has been, the gradual unwinding of these types of trades is expected, and is indeed what has transpired. Institutional ownership has traditionally hovered around 50%. The latest institutionsl report will include 21 million shares that went to institutions when arena diluted. We need to see how that washes out in the next reporting cycle.

    Simply stated, and in my opinion, neither the short interest if the institutionsl activity are big drivers of anything so this stage. You can certainly disagree with my opinion and I respect that you have a differing opinion. My opinion is that some investors focus way to much on these things when despite the moves, the equity is still suffering and in a pattern that these short and institutionsl dynamics have not changed.
    May 20, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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