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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena - New Patent Extends Belviq Exclusivity And Adds Long-Term Value [View article]
    dax....

    Method of treatment patents can be a bit more broad and a hotly debated topic.

    BNy example, the method of treatment of administering 10 mg pills twice a day of a specific medicine can be patented. Should taking two pills a day with 10 ounces of water need to be patented? Or orange juice, apple juice, etc. I am being overly simplistic, but you get the idea.

    The U.S allows such patents to have teeth. Europe on the other hand, does not really stand up for some of the ridiculousness that ensues with such patents.

    There is more strength in having such patents, but that strength is not really absolute.

    Composition of matter patents are a principal cornerstone of what can get patented. These are often seen as strong.

    In my opinion the new patent adds strength, and perhaps extends exclusivity with certain and specfic parameters
    Apr 8, 2015. 01:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Gets Above A Buck - Can It Stay There? [View article]
    Antonioaz....

    Thank you for the kind words.
    Apr 8, 2015. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Gets Above A Buck - Can It Stay There? [View article]
    auto....

    By looking at the comments, I think perhaps your were responding to something jay said. It appears that hi comments may be gone. If your comment is to me, please let me know your concern and I would be happy to discuss opinions with you
    Apr 8, 2015. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Scripts See Modest Gain, Competitors Are In The Wings [View article]
    g....

    samples in had were still minimal and did not really impact numbers in a material way. About 35,000 samples handed out over about 5 months is not material to the script numbers or the comparison of them. I would be shocked if more than 5% or 10% of the free samples converted to paying customers. the data and the numbers simply do not show a big impact in any perspective. I crunch these numbers every week and look at these things from several perspectives. If there was a material difference it would have shown through by now. Simply stated, the samples stopped because they were a failure. They were a failure because there was not enough conversions to justify continuing the program. We all wish this reality was different, but it was/is not.

    I saw, all to often, people using the samples as a crutch and excuse for script numbers. I saw people assuming several thousand samples per week. Some people reached out to me in email about the subject. when I walked them through the financials, they could see that they had allowed themselves to believe something because they wanted to believe it. In simple terms, the data on samples is all there in the financials.

    Reality is freebies were about 1,000 per week. Getting 50 to 100 new customers out of each week would have made the program a mild success and been enough to justify continuation. The samples cost $500,000. It would take 6,667 paying scripts to offset that cost. If 75 new patients (7.5% of the samples) became paying patients and stayed on the drug for 3 months that would have been 7,875 scripts. This would be above the 6,667 that represents breaking even. If Eisai were getting that, the program would have continued. This is a quick "napkin sketch" of the situation, but gives you an idea as to the realities with samples.

    Apr 7, 2015. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip In Weight Loss Season - Company Cutting Costs [View article]
    phemale....

    big thumbs....small phone screen and a response to a mental moron (counter) that deserves very, very, very, very little of my time.
    Apr 7, 2015. 08:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Inks Deal That May Make Selling Anti-Obesity Device Easier [View article]
    Jay....

    If you took some time to do just a little bit of research you would know the answer. Then again, we al already know that you do not really take the time needed to do any research.

    I went long in ETRM as a highly speculative play that could pay some reward.

    My intent was to play the pop on the approval, sell part of the stake to cover initial investment, and sit on "free" shares to see what happens.

    Unfortunately, for me, the approval pop was very fast and alas...i was in meetings. I missed my opportunity to sell the pop as planned.

    At that point I made a decision to see if the launch could provide the pop I was looking for, or if the launch would go well enough to keep me holding my shares longer term.

    I am real on the stock...not negative. there is a very distinct difference.

    Reality is that the company needs to step up to the plate in several respects. the announcement today was a step in the right direction, but woefully short of being what is needed to keep this equity up at levels that allow it to remain in compliance with listing rules.

    The simple reality is this.

    ETRM is a company with very limited resources that is trying to launch a medical device.

    The company likely will need cash at some point in the near term. That cash can come from any number of sources, but the most realistic is dilution. The danger of dilution is that the correction in stock price could pull it out of NASDAQ compliance. The ONLY way to avoid this is to get a big revenue stream happening quickly. The reality is that a device like ETRM's Maestro is not a "quick adoption" device. In other words, it will not "go viral'.

    The company needs to set the expectation bar with reality so that naive people like you do not have "to the moon" expectations. These naive investors are the biggest danger to ETRM being taken seriously with the street 9no matter what their potential may be). the company seems fearful to speak to real expectations. This is likely because they do not want to see the stock price suffer. Ultimately, when companies do this, they get to the raw truth eventually, causing a lot more pain in the process.

    ETRM is not a story in 2015. 2015 is a foundation year, laying the groundwork for the business. 2016 will be the year that determines where this equity will go in the future. They need rapid success with insurance to have any real shot at delivering on equity appreciation. That success needs to happen between now and the end of Q1 2016. If this company does not show demonstrated progress in that time period, the options get fewere and further between.

    These are the realities of ETRM. I do not have many losing propositions in the market very often. I was ahead of the game with this equity but missed my strategic play because the approval pop evaporated faster than a hot knife running through a stick of butter.

    I am now simply a long keeping an eye for the company doing the right things, or looking to see if I think a tax loss will deliver a better situation. Either way, it is not a major portion of my portfolio, so the situation does not really impact me in a material way in either direction.

    If I keep being placed in the position of educating you, I will need your social security number so that I can claim you as a dependednt on my takes.

    Are you man enough to step up to the plate yet, or are you still that little boy that throws rocks and then hides behind the keyboard in momma's basement?

    Apr 7, 2015. 08:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Scripts See Modest Gain, Competitors Are In The Wings [View article]
    G....
    Samples is severely overblown by many investors. If you look at the financials you will see how insignificant the numbers are and were. Belviq still has 15 days free and always has. Contrave has the smallest SAmple program and is sparingly using it.

    Use $17.50 as cost of goods sold and you will see the 30 day samples that never hit the script counts.

    The 15 day scripts that Belviq has is counted in script numbers. Two free trials equals one bottle with ims. Symphony counts each 15 day trial as a script.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Inks Deal That May Make Selling Anti-Obesity Device Easier [View article]
    Jay...

    If you read and comprehend you will note that I have stated that I did not think delisting would happen. I did say it is important not to get a delisting notification. I stressed that the company needed to give an update to stop the bleeding and get into compliance. Look what happened. They gave an update.

    Now....follow along...

    The company still needs to frame the expectations. They have not yet done this. Thus, they remain in danger of running afoul of listing requirements again.

    Think a moment.

    There is still a need for capital. If that happns via dilution, the stock could take a hit.

    You really need to think more deeply. We all want the company to do well. We also should all know that there are challenges
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Inks Deal That May Make Selling Anti-Obesity Device Easier [View article]
    Jay....

    I have no need to cover. I am not short. You need professional help. You said a few weeks ago I was "bashing it lower so I could buy more". Now this week you say I am short.

    Life is good....I agree
    Apr 7, 2015. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Scripts See Modest Gain, Competitors Are In The Wings [View article]
    Not......

    The performance of pills is likely about the same when you take averages and real world dynamics
    Apr 7, 2015. 07:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip In Weight Loss Season - Company Cutting Costs [View article]
    User....

    Sales of weight loss drugs have a season. It runs from January to the end of September. The best trajectory in that period is in late June.

    While obesity as a condition or disease has no season, weight loss does
    Apr 7, 2015. 06:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Scripts See Modest Gain, Competitors Are In The Wings [View article]
    Sharp....

    Bel Phen is here. If you are waiting for a combo pill, you are not likely to get it.
    Apr 7, 2015. 06:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Inks Deal That May Make Selling Anti-Obesity Device Easier [View article]
    Jay.....

    I would be foolish to be short an equity when my disclosure says I sm long. That is a fast way into an orange jumpsuit making little rocks out of big ones. I am long.

    The 9/11 date is not made up at all. My comments and yours show this quite clearly

    The few weeks is about what it would take for even the most naive person to finally realize that their thought process that thousands of procedures would happen in 6 months is utterly wrong. If you do not see that to be the situation in a few more weeks then you are a bigger basket case than anyone could have imagined.

    Certainly you can hold out until 9/11 to see you are dead wrong, but as each day passes the inevitable truth will be one more and more obvious. Every reader here knows that I am speaking the truth and you are full of bull excrement. Most readers simply feel sorry for you. Ever notice that you are alone in your belief? Take a look.
    Apr 6, 2015. 11:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Scripts See Modest Rise - Is Something More Needed? [View article]
    Moz...

    I am playing it s bit by ear with regard to my over core positions.

    I am waiting a bit to see if Eisai finally steps up to the plate and dies a serious ramp on marketing efforts. If I am not seeing it, I will ease out of my over core ARNA shares over the next several weeks. I also watch the technicals, so am not in s hurry.

    OREX nail okay is EU partner now. In a few months this story will revert to the revenue story, the balance sheet, and the position for potential buyout. The revenue story will take precedence over all speculative things. They need to show good potential with revenue to make these other issues possibilities.
    Apr 6, 2015. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Dip In Weight Loss Season - Company Cutting Costs [View article]
    Long....

    Appreciate the comment, but you will not have an impact on mature. His moniker here is a pure oxymoron. There is some level of irony in everything.
    Apr 6, 2015. 08:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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