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Spencer Osborne

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  • Vivus Beats The Street - Still Has A Loss [View article]

    You really need to grow up
    Aug 8 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Bucks Seasonality With 3.6% Week Over Week Gain [View article]

    I see Contrave as direct competition to both drugs. I think the critical unknown right now is price point. I really want to see that so that I can assess things better.

    Approval in September could put it on the market by December 1 for a "soft launch". I would anticipate a big push in January. Of course, once approved, it could hit the streets by October.

    I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE the fact that the articles are not on Yahoo anymore! That place is the lowest common denominator when it comes to investing.
    Aug 8 01:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Beats The Street - Still Has A Loss [View article]

    If you put down the ax that you love to grind and go to the medicine cabinet and take a dose of reality, you would be able to assess the situation much better .

    "VVUS actually has had grown against the competitors (contrary to your hope)"

    I do not hope for anything really. I am a person that wants to see the entire segment see improvement. As to growth against competitors. I am not sure what you are trying to say with that....Yes, Vivus has grown...I think we all know this. The rate of growth of Vivus has been slower than its competitor....Now, that should be expected given absolute numbers.

    I think Vivus has grown revenue at a better clip than Arena, but we also need to consider the cost side of the equation

    "VVUS sales are up significantly"

    Vivus went from $9.1 in Qsymia sales to $11 million. That is a pretty good 21% quarter over quarter increase. I said as much.

    "ARNA ..flat at best"

    Arena had quarter over quarter revenue increase of 21%. You call that flat. Hmmmm.....You are sounding like those areniacs that love to claim "Vivus is dead" when Vivus's Qsymia is selling more scripts than Belviq.

    "VVUS has no advertising…and if they did watch out"

    I think you should refer to what Vivus says:

    "satellite media tour with 45.9 million impressions to date (June 17th)"
    "225 tv broadcats"

    Vivus has a better internet strategy than Eisai. I have stated it in the past. I would love to see Vivus advertise on television and have more print ads as well.
    Aug 8 01:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Beats The Street - Still Has A Loss [View article]

    yes, I saw that....I covered it here over a month ago:

    The script sales this quarter will likely see Arena surpass Vivus. At 1 month into the quarter Vivus is 3,000 scripts ahead, but the percentage growth each week is higher for Belviq than it is Qsymia. The data are the data. It is actually quite reasonable to think that 2 weeks (about the half way point) from now the IMS number for Belviq will surpass Qsymia. In Q2 Belviq had 110,000 and Vivus had 138,000. That gap will be gone this quarter in my opinion.

    As to efficacy..... I think that both drugs have their good points and bad. I think that the appropriate drug for the appropriate person is the best course. Neither drug will work for everyone.

    television ads fopr drugs all have a long list of side effects. This is nothing new. In fact, most consumers tune out the monotone list. The data I have seen indicates that the advertising has been compelling enough to bring about a dramatic increase in people trying the drug. I would like to see Vivus advertise as well.
    Aug 8 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Beats The Street - Still Has A Loss [View article]
    Mature one.....

    Do you really not understand the challenges? really.

    more competitors
    more competitor advertising
    more competitor reps visiting doctors.

    There are three for you.
    Aug 8 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Beats The Street - Still Has A Loss [View article]

    You really seem to have issues with my opinions. That is great. I served this country in part to protect such rights. You should however realize that waving pom-poms is not being a responsible writer.

    If you take a moment to read more slowly and try to comprehend, the challenges ahead are outlined in the paragraph above the summary.

    Belviq will likely surpass Qsymia in scripts this quarter and has added sales reps and increased advertising. Orexigen is about to gain approval and will dedicate 900 sales reps to the equation and most likely be able to give doctors free samples that can then be passed on to patients.

    You term this past quarter as impressive on all fronts. Relative to what?

    It is impressive that they are narrowing costs while increasing revenue, but the numbers we are seeing do not deliver a profit. Thus, they are not out of the woods yet. The fundamentals are showing improvement, but as yet not showing success.
    Aug 8 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many Free Belviq Scripts Are There? [View instapost]

    One big issue is that the street is trying to gauge the sector. Having an understanding of the insurance coverage, freebies, etc. allows the street to make better assumptions, model better, and keep expectations real.
    Aug 8 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Scripts Flat For Arena [View article]

    This is information that they should be giving a bity of flavor on. Between Vivus and Arena, Vivus is much more transparent with its numbers. I suspect that part of the issue with Arena giving numbers is that Belviq is now essentially Eisai's baby. This ties Arena's hands a bit, but they should be able to step up and give some indication.
    Aug 8 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Hits Expectations But That Is Not The Big News [View article]

    I have all of the exposure I care to have in the sector at the moment. I had a price target in mind to buy Orexigen, but it never hit that level. I have other plays that are safer and make more money faster. better to have my money work in those places rather than put more into this sector.
    Aug 7 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Hits Expectations But That Is Not The Big News [View article]
    For Sharon....

    You certainly have the ability to post here. I assure you that as long as your comments are within the terms of service that they will not be deleted, as SA would have no reason to delete them. Again, I do not delete your comments and do not have the ability to. Your continued insinuation that I control the comments in some manner is a gross lie at worst, or a very bad assumption on your part at best.

    I had to do some digging, but I was able to locate your comment about this piece:

    "Just my thoughts - It will be interesting to see what they price it at. The higher price of Belviq has not seemed to stop scripts from catching up with Qsymia that has been on the market for nine months longer. When he says 70% of covered lives have some sort of anti-obesity coverage that is just not true. ARNA stated 70% of those refilling their scripts have anti-obesity coverage. There is a big difference in those two statements. He also states the dedication of 900 reps but does not say there will be 900 dedicated reps. He is tricky fella."

    Now I would like to point out something. You made a very bad assumption regarding my comment about the 70% insurance. It may be that you did it purposefully tomake it appear that I am being dishonest, or it may be an honest mistake on your part. Because you claim that you did not read the piece, you likely did not understand the context.

    1. When I stated that about 70% of covered lives have some sort of obesity coverage I was not at all referring to the amount of Belviq scripts that renew are covered by insurance. Not at all. I was referring to the press releases from Eisai and statements from eisai, Vivus, and Arena regarding the level of insurance companies that offer an obesity benefit of some sort. This has been covered by eisia back in May:

    "In addition to creating greater awareness of BELVIQ among physicians and patients, Eisai continues to work toward expanded reimbursement coverage for BELVIQ from the payor community. According to Fingertip Formulary, the number of insured commercial lives in the United States with access to BELVIQ now exceeds 60 percent. The health plan beneficiary/patient will need to verify coverage with their insurance company."

    It has also been covered by Arena in the past. Eisai has also stated that it is targeting 70% by March 31st. I think that the basis for your intentional mislabeling or honest mistake (you will have to clarify that yourself) regarding what i said what I said relates to this statement from the Arena conference call where Arena management seems to bring apples and oranges into his answer about a question:

    "One thing that Eisai did mention is that the reimbursement landscape continues to improve, they’re greater than 60%, they reiterated their target on the call last night of achieving 70%, actually the current data is, if you exclude the free vouchers over 70% of the prescription filled have commercial pay insurance, (inaudible) insurance that’s very encouraging to us."

    This is an apples and oranges answer. The first part of the answer is referencing the overall percentage of covered lives that have an anti-obesity benefit. The second part of his answer relates to actual people using belviq.

    To be clear, I was speaking about covered lives....not the percentage of people that Arena sees taking Belviq that are insured. Your insinuation that I am being "tricky" is simply unfounded.

    2. Overall, insurance coverage for Belviq, Qsymia, and Contrave will be about the same. For the most part, once a company decides to cover anti-obesity, they cover both Belviq and Qsymia. If Contrave gains approval, it will be added to formularies in pretty short order.

    3. You do not have to read what I write, but if you are going to comment on it, you should ensure that you are in context. Your whole bad assumption on this article could have been avoided with a simple question. Heck, you could have even sent it in a private message so as not to appear to be a reader if you desire. Your choice to run with a bad assumption (something you have done quite often) is your choice. If you are going to attempt to drag my name through the mud, you should first have the courage ask a question, and next ensure that you are as informed as possible. Your actions win you a few internet friends from the asylum, but you will lack credibility when the obvious mistakes you make are pointed out.

    In closing....60% of covered lives was surpassed in late April or early May. If you go to fingertip formulary and do a little digging about insurance company market share you can gain a lot of insigt
    Aug 7 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Scripts Flat For Arena [View article]

    No worries.

    I have in the past spoken to Arena. I have also had communications to them go unanswered. More often than not I have found that they do not tend to give the transparency that they could. There are aspects of Arena that I cover on my website and not here on Seeking Alpha. as this is not my career, I am careful about how much time I dedicate to what is essentially a hobby that I enjoy. I have given thought to not doing the series on script numbers anymore, but I have many requests to continue. I would welcome being able to communicate with Arena more often. I think that the company is somewhat over-sensitive to the very passionate shareholders that would not appreciate the company speaking to me.
    Aug 7 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Hits Expectations But That Is Not The Big News [View article]
    A Little birdie has whispered in my ear.

    It appears that passionate Arena investor Sharon seems to be saying that I delete her comments:

    1. I do not delete comments. I do not approve comments. I see comments at the same time any reader does. I have no control over comments on Seeking Alpha

    2. Good ole Sharon has had a tendency to make comments that violate the terms of service here. I would assume that if her comments are deleted (or never posted) that they somehow violate the terms of service or are in poor conduct. Comment that insinuate that I have not fully disclosed my financial interests (i.e. the sophomoric comments that say I am a short but not disclosing it or that I work for hedge funds would be an example of a violation of the terms of service). Sharon does not seem to be able to help herself and seems incapable of a reasonable discussion. Instead, it would appear that she simply likes to pass her "judgement" on other forums. Pretty much every point she has ever tried to make is easily refuted with plain and simple facts.
    Aug 7 05:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Hits Expectations But That Is Not The Big News [View article]

    I think that overall the entrance of Contrave is a positive for the sector as it will increase awareness for doctors and increase pressure on insurance to offer better coverage.

    Specific to Arena and Belviq, I think that the positive could be offset by the very fact that Contrave will be allowed to be sampled at the doctors office. A lot also depends on the price point.

    If Contrave were to come in at a wholesale price of $125 it could carry dramatic impacts on the sector as a whole. I am most curious about the price point before I assess overall impacts.
    Aug 7 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Scripts Flat For Arena [View article]

    I think there are several issues at play:

    1. Doctors seem hesitant to script anti-obesity particular ones that have a lot of paperwork attached and cost a lot.

    2. Advertising in the middle of the night is, in my opinion, a waste of resources.

    3. Patients seem hesitant to try the drug.

    4. Insurance is not stepping up.

    The team is between a rock and a hard place. I think that Eisai could do more, but they have a responsibility to their shareholders to make money as well. there is not an unlimited budget.
    Aug 7 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Scripts Flat For Arena [View article]

    The wholesale cost is $200. Some places charge more so that they can actually make a few bucks.

    One big issue is that people think that having 70% of covered lives is great. It is progress, but a big component is missing. Medicare/medicaid. In addition, the tier of coverage is most often in the category that offers the least reimbursement.

    We need progress in the covered lives, but more importantly need progress in the tier of coverage.

    Lastly, even though some formularies may offer coverage, employers can customize their plan. There are many employers that still exclude obesity treatment.
    Aug 7 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment