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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Orexigen: Contrave Script Sales Dip. Why? [View article]
    Pac...

    Read again. Disclosure says I am long ARNA. It says this piece is about OREX
    Feb 7, 2015. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    Mark....

    I am an average person. I simply deal in reality.

    That reality at the moment is that I have presented data.

    The reality is that you do not like it.

    The reality is that you ran off at the mouth and made a statement you do not really have confidence in.

    the reality is that your confidence in your own words is so shaky that you will not back it up in any meaningful way.

    You said "the end" yet continue to post. You are welcomed to do that, but you will simply solidify that you do not believe your own words and lack the courage to stand behind them.

    Get a goods nights sleep. Tomorrow is another day. Perhaps you will have learned a little something and be a better person tomorrow.

    Cheers
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    Mark....

    Nope....You made yourself look like a fool and demonstrated to the world that you do not really believe in your own words. That's okay....we all like to be able to feel sorry for someone. You have given many readers the gift of having someone to feel sorry for. On behalf of all of these people we say thank you.

    Cheers
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    Mark....

    You may be a man, but you do not seem to want to man-up to your own words. That is fine. The word needs lesser people to do the menial things.

    Put your money where your mouth is. If you keep yapping you just look more and more foolish.

    My offer is simple. Put up $100k. I will fly you here, buy you dinner, and open up my files to you. If I have more than 2 shares you pay me $100K. If I have two shares or less I will pay you $100K.

    pretty simple. Are you an honorable enough person to back up what you say? If not, simply fade away. No one will think any less of you than we already do.
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    kehou....

    Free samples are not as big as some like to portray. You will see this rather clearly when Arena announces bottles shipped in Q4 and you compare it to scripts. I can just imagine all of these folks suddenly wanting to use IMS instead of Symphony at that point.

    Think about this for a moment. Free doctor 1 month Samples started in October. If these were being given in big numbers, we would see a spike in refills. Would you agree? Patient gets free month...likes results....gets refills. Here are refill percentages:

    October 03 - 7.81% - Freebies start
    October 10 - 7.71%
    October 17 - 7.74%
    October 24 - 7.81%
    October 31 - 7.67% - First refills off of freebies start
    November 07 - 7.44%
    November 14 - 7.74%
    November 21 - 7.54%
    November 28 - 6.88%
    December 05 - 8.07%
    December 12 - 7.72%
    December 19 - 7.10%
    December 26 - 6.18%
    January 02 - 7.56%
    January 09 - 9.05%
    January 16 - 8.12%
    January 23 - 7.65%
    January 30 - 7.38%

    As you can see, we have not seen a big boost in refills that we should if a large number of free samples were being utilized.

    I hate to be the one to tell you this, but some people will be told information from a salesman that is not really accurate. They will then pass that on to others because they feel others will want to hear it.

    RMBD has said that we will get 3.5 million scripts this year. He also has stated that his sales person indicated to him last summer that belviq was weeks away from passing phentermine in script count. Hopefilly you are aware that phentermine does 150,000 scripts a week.

    You should take what some people say with a grain of salt. Other should be taken with a shaker of salt. Others should be taken with the Great Salt Lake.
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    Sedric....

    Usually starts about now and runs decently through June
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    Mark.....

    So you are not man enough to stand behind your words. That is real grand of you. It also demonstrates that you do not have the courage of your convictions.

    So here is where we are.

    1. you are naive and belive message board mantra instead of doing a little research.

    2. You make an assumption that my sale was not savvy when in reality it was quite savy.

    3. you put out words that you do not even have the courage to believe.

    If $1 million is too much for you, put up $100k. I will fly you here, buy dinner, and show you transactions. Do you believe in your own words or not?

    Are you man enough to stand by your assertion? If not, end the conversation and sulk in the corner.
    Feb 6, 2015. 08:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    The decline is October. Sales should carry an upward track until then. Problem at the moment is that trajectory is too low
    Feb 6, 2015. 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    Mark....

    Interesting, but as with many people, you do not tell the whole story.

    I bought shares after approval at $7.32

    I sold half at $10.50.

    I was sitting on a paper loss with the remaining half. I happened to have a situation where utilixzing that loss was a sound strategy.

    I sold the balance of my shares at $3.80 with the intent of buying back in when the wash rule expired. I pre-announced my sale, and pre-announced that I intended to buy back in.

    The tax loss sales made sense from a financial perspective as long as I bought back in under $4.90

    I bought back in for my initial stake at an average of $4.23

    I then doubled that stake to carry an average of $3.85

    So....let's now define savvy.

    I had profits from other trades and a paper loss on this one. By doing what I did, I was able to offset some of my real gains with a real loss.

    Had I sat on my shares, I would be down on Arena and still sitting on a paper loss. By doing what I did, I am now in the green on Arena and lessened my tax liability.

    That is the WHOLE STORY.

    You can believe the message board mantra if you so desire, but the TRUTH is far different than what you presented.

    I am sorry if this makes you look foolish, but in the end, it is probably a good thing to finally see the light on.

    By the way....I have substantially more than 2 shares. If you are soooo confident that I have 2 shares, put your money where your mouth is. I will bet you $1 million that I have more than 2 shares. Are you a man or a fool?
    Feb 6, 2015. 07:43 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Partner May Need To Advertise More [View article]
    Arni

    If Contrave is dead, why is it selling scripts?

    "Can't u not comprehend"

    Can you not form a proper sentence?

    I told you long ago that sales in this sector are not where needed. have you comprehended that yet?
    Feb 6, 2015. 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Scripts Grow, But Pace Is Slower Than Needed [View article]
    Jim....

    I have explained to you why considering phentermine at this stage is essentially meaningless. Until such time that any of these new drugs get to a point of playing on the same ball-field as phentermine it is the newbies against each other.

    Phentermine shifts between 120k and 160k per week. This week it will look like share is up. In three weeks it will be different.

    What matters is that Belviq brings in $35 million this year. Right now it is pacing well below that. If sales do not increase substantially and do so quickly, 2015 will not be what is needed.

    I understand that some investors want to come up with any reason to feel good. What savvy investors do is understand what is needed and whether or not it is likely
    Feb 6, 2015. 06:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Approved In South Korea - Can It Change The Dynamics? [View article]
    Gallo....

    Patience is a part. Not really applicable in this case.
    Feb 5, 2015. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Approved In South Korea - Can It Change The Dynamics? [View article]
    gallo.....

    Part of investing is seeing things early.
    Feb 4, 2015. 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Approved In South Korea - Can It Change The Dynamics? [View article]
    Novel.....

    Why would south Korea open up all of asia? U.S approval has done nothing to open up all of the America's. Each country marches to their own tune.
    Feb 4, 2015. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Partner May Need To Advertise More [View article]
    Jim,

    I see the Jublia ad often. Heck, it was even advertised in the Super Bowl!

    Jublia was VRX's 28th largest product in Q3! and they advertise in a big way!

    Jublia was approved June 9th.

    By October they were doing 5,800 scripts per week in the U.S and 5,500 per month in Canada.

    The company initially guided to sales of $150 million in 2015 and $300 million in 2016 and stated in their Q3 call that they will beat these targets significantly.

    "We are off to a great start in both the US and Canada post the launch of Jublia in July. Jublia script trends in the US are currently at 5,831 scripts per week through the week ending October 10th. Canada monthly script trends are currently 5,462 scripts per month through the month end September, an impressive 18% market share after only three months. This performance increases our confidence in our ability to significantly exceed our estimates for Jublia of $150 million in 2015 and $300 million of revenue in 2016. We continue to believe that Jublia will likely become our largest product.

    We are investing in the growth of Jublia through a comprehensive marketing campaign and an expanded sales force. In the first half of the third quarter prior to the FDA review of our promotional materials, we were only able to sell Jublia using the package insert. In the second half of the third quarter, we began the roll-out of our print and digital campaigns to both divisions and consumers. Our results to date are prior to our planned TV advertising, which the FDA completed its review of last week. We plan to be on air by mid-November.

    Our initial sales plan have included a contract to primary care sales force. After assessing the effectiveness of the sales force at the end of Q3, we have decided to shift this brand to additional dermatology representatives and consumer advertising. Between the US and Canada, we have approximately 175 sales representatives consisting of both podiatry and dermatology representatives selling Jublia."
    Feb 4, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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