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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Win The Week, But Is It Enough? [View article]
    Mei.....

    I like your enthusiasm, but the sector sucks at this juncture. The WORST of the bunch is QSYMIA. It's sales suck more than the others. There is no debating this. It is a document fact. Celebrate third place? Not me. First place in this sector is not good enough. Third place is nothing at all to be celebrating.

    I love your repeated attempts to spin, but spinning only results in someone like me pointing out the flaws.

    You love to look at revenue. Blow look at cost. Belviq and Contrave spend NOTHING to market their drugs. Vivus spends multiple millions, and can not muster a campaign big enough to make a material difference.

    If you want to dance this dance, you need to stop the spin. Qsymia sell the least out of all theses products. Vivus spends more than its competitors. Qsymia sales have been essentially fist for a year.

    I will put it plainly again

    Belviq sake = what a vacuum cleaner does (suck)
    Contrave sakes = what a vacuum cleaner does (suck)
    Qsymia sales = what two vacuum cleaners do (sucks even more)
    May 20, 2015. 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    George...

    The news is the news. The data are the data.
    May 20, 2015. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    Mm.....

    I usually have these pieces out on Friday or Monday. I traveled out west Friday, and returned back to the east coast Monday. Wrote this Tuesday. Sometimes my schedule simply does not allow for getting a piece written. My priority over the weekend was to enjoy time with family. I had several requests for my articles to be submitted
    May 20, 2015. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    Rick....

    Sound thinking in my opinion.
    May 20, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    Bock.....

    I have offered my opinion on short interest many times. In the case of Arena the short side has never really been out of what I would consider normal. I do nit really consider any short interest number as being a driver unless the days to cover goes over 10. Short side interest is often driven by specific parameters and trading methods. By example, a short position is off used in straddle type trades or simply as a hedge. With the action in the stock price being what it has been, the gradual unwinding of these types of trades is expected, and is indeed what has transpired. Institutional ownership has traditionally hovered around 50%. The latest institutionsl report will include 21 million shares that went to institutions when arena diluted. We need to see how that washes out in the next reporting cycle.

    Simply stated, and in my opinion, neither the short interest if the institutionsl activity are big drivers of anything so this stage. You can certainly disagree with my opinion and I respect that you have a differing opinion. My opinion is that some investors focus way to much on these things when despite the moves, the equity is still suffering and in a pattern that these short and institutionsl dynamics have not changed.
    May 20, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    Crazy...

    A spike in holdings by tutes should have been expected given the fact that there was a dilution of 21 million shares in the quarter that went to institutions.

    If you do not like weekly sales tracking you can certainly ignore these reports. For every person, like yourself, that dislikes them, there are 100 that like them.

    Not everyone plans to hold shares for decades. If that is your plan, perhaps your commenting on action that is geared to a much shorter term is ridiculous.
    May 20, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    Jim,

    I was just using that to make a point. Seems that many investors always want something to cling onto. It is the "yea, but" mentality. Sales are bad....yea but sales reps were cut,or yea but there was a holiday, etc.
    May 20, 2015. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Qsymia Sales Win The Week, But Is It Enough? [View article]
    Gino....

    Charts reflect all data
    May 20, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    hit....

    okay. Should I mention that they significantly increased prime time television ads as well?

    The sales are the sales.

    Eisai has re-jiggered the recipe quite a few times now. The major factor seems to be that these drugs are simply not being widely accepted.
    May 20, 2015. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Flattening Out - Is It Sector Saturation? [View article]
    got....

    It is doing fine. Do you also want to know about my other investments, or are you simply trying to be snide?

    I made a very small speculative investment in Orexigen to play the European approval and the potential announcements of partnerships and/or launches in Europe. The approval is in, and the Europe story is slow going at this stage. I have no real worries, but thank you for your concerns
    May 20, 2015. 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Crash May Be Overdone But I Am Not A Buyer On This Event [View article]
    Y.....

    I think it is great that you can still dream after 3 years of having Vivus walk all over your dreams.

    At the end of 2015 Qsymia will be further behind than it ever has been
    May 17, 2015. 02:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Crash May Be Overdone But I Am Not A Buyer On This Event [View article]
    Plc.....

    A quick note... With every one of these weight loss drugs the majority of weight loss happens in the first 12 to 16 weeks

    The study was designed to assess CVOT events in an as treated situation. If after 12 weeks, a person has not lost 5%, they should come off of the drug
    May 16, 2015. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Crash May Be Overdone But I Am Not A Buyer On This Event [View article]
    Tail....

    My opinion is that the impact of that 25% data was not a major factor in the sales trajectory of the launch. I think we will not see a material shift to the downside. In my opinion, Contrave will take a market leadership role within about 8 weeks unless Eisai steps up its game on belviq
    May 15, 2015. 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Crash May Be Overdone But I Am Not A Buyer On This Event [View article]
    Plc......

    The thought of forbidden knowledge and responsibility depends on what lens you look at it from. What the FDA may consider forbidden may actually be material information that requires filing with the SEC. There is an overall issue at play here, and there is an ongoing problem that many companies will face.

    At the point it was learned that more people knew than should have known, and that the light study was in question, why hide the material information? It was already apparent that the light study materials would not be allowed to be used. This issue is actually much older than most realize. this again gets into the realm of what lens you look at the issue through.

    The committee can seek remedy if they do desire.

    They did know, and we're quite clear, that the data could change. If you read the filings you will see this in very simple terms.

    The design of the trial was developed in conjunction with the FDA. If you feel that the study was flawed from the start, then you are essentially saying Nissan and the FDA are clueless. This argument is among the weakest I have seen people present.

    Pulling Contrave is not a viable option. Vivus has had Qsymia on the market for almost three years now and has not even started their study. In addition, with ANDA's, are post marketing requirements even a reasonable path? Why should an Actavis or Teva be able to waltz in, without having paid for clinical trials, and with no responsibility on post marketing trials be able to just start making one of these drugs?

    Takeda has a point. That being said, they also have utilized the early data. Kind of hard to say on one hand that orexigen should foot the bill when on the other, Takeda uses the data?

    The new patent has been issued.
    May 15, 2015. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Crash May Be Overdone But I Am Not A Buyer On This Event [View article]
    chris....

    You would then have to believe that the 25% that increased the script count in a material may. I do not think that was the case. I think we will see Orexigen pass Belviq in scripts in late June or early July.
    May 14, 2015. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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