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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Orexigen - Stage Is Set For European Approval Decision On Anti-Obesity Drug [View article]
    Ras...

    I believe that orexigen will get a bit of a pass on sales revenue because people will look toward Europe to set the tone. This buys orexigen 6 months or so before the street places a critical eye on sales revenue. When that happens, if sales are not meeting expectations, the equity will have a difficult time. My opinion is that understanding the revenue story as soon as possible will keep savy investors a step ahead.

    Thank you for the kind words. Cheers
    Mar 15, 2015. 01:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus - Qsymia Scripts Pass 11,000 For First Time In 2015 [View article]
    rt1...

    I think it is actually some holdover in data from last week for the most part. However, even if that is the case, it did have a mini pop of sorts. perhaps reps got busy last week
    Mar 13, 2015. 09:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen - Stage Is Set For European Approval Decision On Anti-Obesity Drug [View article]
    mr.....

    The LIGHT Trial was never going to be finished prior to EU approval. CHMP has already recommended Mysimba for approval. IMO approval is very likely. The second CVOT, agreed to last fall, is post marketing
    Mar 13, 2015. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Remain More Modest Than Needed, But A Silver Lining Is Showing [View article]
    Jakes...

    Refills are seeing good increase in trajectory. Look at the gray line in the first chart.

    As for time....it is not alw as on our side.

    Rhythms product, zafgen, saxenda, invokana, farxiga, etc are all working on the weight market.

    If revenue from U.S sales this year is less than $25 million, it will be problematic for the stock
    Mar 13, 2015. 08:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen - Stage Is Set For European Approval Decision On Anti-Obesity Drug [View article]
    tail....

    The reasoning not given in specifics. Likely a risk vs. reward ratio. One of the negative votes asked for the stand up meeting. That meeting is on Monday.
    Mar 13, 2015. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News For Pfizer's Chantix May Be Good News For Arena's Belviq [View article]
    sts....

    There is really nothing for the SEC to investigate.

    Company executives and their bankers having information not available to the general public happen with every company on the planet. Knowing tyour company is not against the law.

    Insider information is possessed my millions of people. Acting on insider information is where criminal activity begins. Essentially, there is nothing for the SEC to look at in this matter. If the SEC wasted any time on this stuff, it would be a waste of taxpayer money.
    Mar 13, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen - Stage Is Set For European Approval Decision On Anti-Obesity Drug [View article]
    Science......

    I think that the up front for Europe is not worth as much as the up front for the United States.

    The market place is much different now. Based on how anti-obesity drugs have been selling, it is now pretty clear that the path is not easy.

    Let me use Arena and Belviq as an example. The deal for Europe AND the rest of the world netted a $60 million up front payment and an increase of $123 million in possible milestones. The original deal was $50 million up front and $1.37 billion in possible milestones. Approval meant another $90 million in that deal.

    If Contrave is already approved in Europe, there will not be approval money. Yes, launch money will add. I was simply speaking of up front money in the classic terms. Launch dollars would add to that. A lot depends on how many territories, royalties, etc.

    "Guaranteed" money for a partnership and launch would be more in the $75 million neighborhood

    The bottom line is that the anti-obesity market has been mediocre at best over the last two and a half years. That brings down the guaranteed dollars a bit
    Mar 13, 2015. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News For Pfizer's Chantix May Be Good News For Arena's Belviq [View article]
    sts....

    I have communicated with several doctors that script off label. It is not wide spread, but will continue to pick up. A second confirming smoking study that gets published would start that ball rolling better.
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen - Stage Is Set For European Approval Decision On Anti-Obesity Drug [View article]
    Science.....

    The deal with Takeda for the U.S. was $50 million up front and up to $1 billion. The $billion number have some milestones that are very hard to reach. I think Europe alone could bring in $30 million up front.

    I am not suprised that Orexigen is not co-promoting in the U.S. Especially at this stage. We are a couple of months away from seeing magazine type ads, and another few after that before television may enter the picture. Even when that happens, co-promotion is unlikely. Essentially, the company would only co-promote if Takeda as a partner is floundering. Cash on hand is needed for CVOT post marketing study.

    The Takeda experience in diabetes should be very helpful. I think it is a bit early to really assess the market on this. What we are seeing is diabetes meds being promoted for weight loss attributes, and weight loss meds being promoted for sugar control attributes. There is a morphing happening that makes gauging the sector more challenging.

    An outright sale is an interesting concept, but I am not sure that it will happen. Contrave has various protections but is not "novel". With the morphing of the sector that I mentioned, there may be other ways that potential suitors can reap reward from the space.
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News For Pfizer's Chantix May Be Good News For Arena's Belviq [View article]
    wals....

    "I fully expect that Arna will be partnering with different companies for their other indications."

    Just for clarity.....Belviq is partnered with Eisai for all indications on that drug in the regions Eisai covers. The same with Teva for israel, Ildong for S. Korea, and CY for Taiwan.

    Pipeline will indeed have other partners (at least it will be the most likely situation)
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen - Stage Is Set For European Approval Decision On Anti-Obesity Drug [View article]
    the....

    Countries can all present their own hurdles. Some rely heavily on whether something was approved in the U.S. or Europe or Japan. By example, Brazil and Switzerland work together on many things. Canada tends to be along the lines of Europe, and Mexico tends to be along the lines of the FDA. That being said, approval in the U.S. or Europe does not mean approval in other countries.

    Having the U.S and Europe under a drugs belt is a big deal, because these two regions are the "leaders" in the world of pharma.
    Mar 13, 2015. 10:56 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News For Pfizer's Chantix May Be Good News For Arena's Belviq [View article]
    wal....

    Jack is Jack. I think his skill set does not translate well with Wall Street, but I do not "blame him"

    Belviq is essentially the property of Eisai.

    When guidance is offered, it is only prudent to track against it. In the absense of guidance, it is prudent to track against analyst expectations. IMO Arena could do a better job of framing expectations. It is a big shortcomming with them.

    Script tracking is script tracking. The data are the data. There is no emotion attached to looking at the numbers being delivered vs. expectations. If you think that the article is leaning negative, it is because the numbers are not big enough to skew to positive. Smoking cessation has always been something I am bullish about.

    The pipeline is YEARS away. How long are you willing to wait? how long are you willing to let money trudge along?

    You say it will work out just fine in the long run. okay...lets see what you mean by that.

    Whats the price in December of 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020?

    What will drive the equity to these prices?
    Mar 13, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News For Pfizer's Chantix May Be Good News For Arena's Belviq [View article]
    Walser.....

    That is all well and good. How is it that you say I have my emotion attached to this equity though?

    My trades are not based upon emotion. They are based on sound trading concepts and actually absent emotion.

    What many seem to call "negative spin" is simply reality. There is not any spin involved. I get chastised because I have the courage to speak about reality. Many in the message board world do not dare speak of reality, nor will they put anything concrete onto the table.

    By example, spin is saying scripts are flat because of one excuse or another. Reality is assessing where expectations are compared to what scripts are doing and determining how it could impact the equity
    Mar 13, 2015. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News For Pfizer's Chantix May Be Good News For Arena's Belviq [View article]
    Walser....

    These are the ADVERSE EVENTS reported to the FDA.

    In case you were not aware, the FDA tracks reported ADVERSE EVENTS in a system called the "FDA ADVARSE EVENT REPORTING SYSTEM". I think that the name explains itself.

    My true colors are speaking the truth and dealing in reality.

    The data are the data.

    I agree that Belviq has demonstrated a "good" safety profile to date. Perhaps the difference between me and you is that I simply deal in the facts and if I have an opinion it is based upon those facts.

    If you would like to learn how to see the ADVERSE EVENTS data, let me know, and I will assist. Government websites can be a pain to wade through
    Mar 13, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News For Pfizer's Chantix May Be Good News For Arena's Belviq [View article]
    walsher.....

    You need to hold your emotions in check and understand that I do not keep my emotions in the game.

    Original Buy

    I first bought Arena at $7.32 after FDA approval.

    First Sale

    My first sales was for half of my shares at $10.50.

    Adding To The Remaining Half

    I added to my remaining half at about $6.02. This brought my average down from $7.32 to about $6.96.

    Tax Sale

    In October, I made a sale for tax purposes with the intent to buy back in after the 30 day wash rule expired. that sale was at $3.80. When I conducted that sale, the result of all investing activity in Arena up until that point was a break even proposition. That being said, if you consider the fact that I could turn a paper loss into a material loss to offset other gains, I was ahead of the curve in the tax columnn. when I made the tax sale at $3.80, the tax benefit break-even point to buy back in was about $4.90.

    Buy Back Of The Tax Sale Shares

    I bought back the shares from the tax sales on November 11th at $4.62. In essence, I was just under $0.30 to the good on the tax-sale break-even situation. Now, instead of owning shares at $6.96, I got a tax benefit and own the shares at $4.62

    Added Shares

    I added shares on November 19th at $4.22. This lowered my average cost and brought me slightly below the original number of shares I carried when I first invested in Arena.

    Added Shares

    I added shares on December 12th at $3.94. This brought my stake up to a level higher than it was on initial investment. It also brought my news cost basis down.

    Added Shares

    I added shares on December 15th at $3.79. My average cost basis was lowered again.

    Added Shares

    I added shares on December 26th at $3.46. My average cost basis was once again lowered.

    Added Shares

    I added shares on December 29th at $3.36. This brought my average cost to $3.95 and essentially has me just shy of twice my initial number of shares.

    In essence, I made a good profit on my initial sale, was able to take advantage of a tax loss this year, and now carry a stake bigger than what I initially had. Instead of sitting on a stake and being still not being in a profitable situation even with this run up, I am in a nice profitable situation now, have a tax advantage, and am in the drivers seat.

    I do not claim to be the best trader in the world, but I am savvy enough to understand how the game is played and how to position myself for success, or at least how to minimize risk. Those that were critical of my tax sale (people like good ole Yossi) can now see that the moment I bought back in on November 11th that it was a wise move. Adding shares and bringing the average down in subsequent buys was even smarter.

    There you have it. I hold almost twice as many shares and sit in a profitable position...not hoping that another dollar can be added and getting me to profits.

    UPDATE

    On March 11th I sold 25% of my position at $4.51. I still hold more shares today than I originally did (about 45% higher than initial number of shares bought after approval). My average cost basis on the shares sold was $3.95. The transaction netted a 14% profit.

    At this stage I am in a profitable position in Arena. My initial stake, sale, subsequent buy, and tax sale resulted in a break even situation. The Fall of 2014 buys which got me to a level nearly twice what I initially had is all in a profitable situation.

    Are you familiar with a core position and a trading position?
    Mar 13, 2015. 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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