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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Vivus: Slower-Than-Needed Qsymia Sales Do Not Offer Hope [View article]
    Rt1.....

    Have you read the act? It does not appear so. It proposes amendments to social security and Medicaid. The bill itself says that 15 million people would be impacted, but somehow you add 100 million people to that tally.

    Have you looked at how these drugs are scripted?

    Have you looked at refill rates?

    Please do that and then let me know why you think I do not call it a difference maker. That being said, the act is not likely to see the light if day, so I do not hinge an investment thesis on it.

    What is clear is that you are running around with a thought process based on bad or imagined data. Perhaps me asking the following question is more applicable.....Can you be serious? Are you really thinking that this act is something more than it is? Are you really going to take your stance even after reading the bill? R are you going to realize that your assumptions are off by a huge margin?

    I suspect that you need to revisit your thoughts on this bill
    Aug 10, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Reports Loss, Sales Slow, Stock Is Challenged [View article]
    Per.....

    FDA would require a full study on a diabetes indication. You should look at the history of the branded pills regarding that type of issue.
    Aug 10, 2015. 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Reports Loss, Sales Slow, Stock Is Challenged [View article]
    D......

    I feel that management is trying to keep its head above water but s not doing a good job of it. They should have addressed the number of implants and the listing issue. They should have set the stage for expectations with goals that outline what needs to happen and when. If they felt discussing the number of centers would do that, they really do not have their finger on the pulse of the street.
    Aug 10, 2015. 07:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Reports Loss, Sales Slow, Stock Is Challenged [View article]
    Pat...

    Chasing a new indication is a long way off. A device implanted off label is not the same a a doc scripting a pill off label. People seem to be placing their bets on hope rather than reality.
    Aug 9, 2015. 01:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Reports Loss, Sales Slow, Stock Is Challenged [View article]
    Per....

    I am quite familiar with all of what you wrote. If someone with diabetes loses weight, they will improve their numbers. It is natural.

    You use the term "diabetes us cured". Be careful with that. People do not use the term "cured" in association with diabetes. This is very well known to those that understand thus sector.
    Aug 9, 2015. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Reports Loss, Sales Slow, Stock Is Challenged [View article]
    Bariatric.....

    The efficacy of maestro, compared to pills (about the same), and to something like lap band (far more weight loss), then you will see the true niche aspect of this.
    Aug 8, 2015. 05:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EnteroMedics Reports Loss, Sales Slow, Stock Is Challenged [View article]
    Bariatric......

    One major issue with that assumption is the fact that The maestro device delivered about 10% to 12% weight loss. This is not effective enough to make people want the device. You can get almost 10-% from pills and avoid an implant altogether. You can get substantially more with a lap band. In my opinion maestro is a niche product and will remain there.

    Another thing is this. Just because a center gets certified and a surgeon trained, does not mean they will do surgeries. It is a tool in their chest, but whether they ever use it is another matter.

    If the numbers of implants, or patients getting ready for implants were impressive, management would have touted it. The fact that management essentially ran away from any such discussion illustrates that these numbers are not compelling.

    You seem to have fallen for the "slight of hand". You are focused on the number of doctors and centers. that is What they wanted you to focus on.
    Aug 8, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus: Slower-Than-Needed Qsymia Sales Do Not Offer Hope [View article]
    Rt1.....

    You, like jakes, think this will be the case. The reality is that these drugs are not selling well now. Refill rates show that the average person stays on these drugs for just 3 months. These drugs were designed to be long term, but they are not being used that way.

    The driver of Phentermine is that it is cheap, it works, and clinics script it.

    The act des not really change the dynamics that are troubling for the sector
    Aug 8, 2015. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After An EPS Beat And A Revenue Miss, Arena Is A Wait And See Stock [View article]
    Pac....

    You are hopefully not in the camp that falsely believes I was calling for a hockey stick I hope. If you believe that, you are believing a falsehood.
    Aug 7, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Surprises The Street With Partnership Deals - Stock Should Benefit [View article]
    Long.....

    I do not control when articles are published. I only control when I write them and submit them. The stock did pop on the news, but as stated, the realities are not so exciting at this point
    Aug 7, 2015. 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After An EPS Beat And A Revenue Miss, Arena Is A Wait And See Stock [View article]
    Sedric.....

    Clearly you had severe issues with reading comprehension that continued into adulthood. Or.....you are simply trying to be funny. I will give you the benefit if the doubt and assume you are trying to be funny.

    That being said.

    If you take some time and go back to what I wrote, you will see that I never promised a hockey stick. What I did say was that if the company had any hope if hitting their stated goals that the only way it would be achieved is if a hockey stick happened. I NEVER promised a hockey stick, nor did I say it would happen. There are many that seem to be severely susceptible to very bad message board mantras.
    Aug 7, 2015. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After An EPS Beat And A Revenue Miss, Arena Is A Wait And See Stock [View article]
    Stein.....

    Yes. The point I was trying to make was that you never see the complaining, moaning, calls to action, and screaming that "hedge funds" and Mm's are manipulating when a stock is going up. Many that are most vocal in their complaints only complain when the stock they are invested in goes down. Unfortunately many people blame all that is bad on the boogy man and oft fail to see that there are often fundamental reasons for the equity going down.

    Amazingly, there is a large pool of investors that think hedge funds are bad things, and that they always work against an equity. Hedge funds are simp,y investors. They go long, they go short, they play options. They seek profit. Saying something like, "those bastard hedge funds are holding this down" is demonstrating a total lack of the marketplace intellect. The same holds true for the market makers, which become boogy man number 2. Lastly we always have the dreaded dark pools.

    The other thing I find most curious is that people seem to fully believe what they are saying, yet continue to not figure out how to profit from it if indeed it is happening.b they are so wrapped up in things that they do not dare move onto another investment for fear of "missing the massive upside when the hedges finally let this run"

    It is amazing to see it happen.

    Specific to arena.
    June of 2013 sales estimates are $150 million in 7 months. Arena management calls that estimate conservative.

    Sales muss that target by a very wide margin

    Sales continue on a trajectory that shows very very slow uptake.

    These very facts alone justify a decline in stock, yet there are some that believe all of this decline us manipulation.
    Aug 7, 2015. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After An EPS Beat And A Revenue Miss, Arena Is A Wait And See Stock [View article]
    Walsher......

    The study will complete in 7 years. The company is absorbing $100 million more than they were previously. Big cost, but measurable at this stage.
    Aug 7, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After An EPS Beat And A Revenue Miss, Arena Is A Wait And See Stock [View article]
    Crazy.....

    Net sales of Contrave were $16 million. Net sales of Belviq were $12 million.

    Orexigen got a cloud lifted in a resolution to the Takeda deal. Orexigigen landed a partner for South Korea. Contrave sales are trending up. Belviq sakes are trending down. Orexigen had a good quarter and call. Arena had a bad quarter and call. Arena warned of delays as well.

    Block100 share trades in Any stock happen all of the time. This does not mean manipulation in the sense you are implying is happening. Market makers are tasked with facilitating a market and creating flow.

    Let me ask you this. Why is manipulation ALWAYS complained about to the downside, but NEVER complained about to the upside?
    Aug 7, 2015. 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After An EPS Beat And A Revenue Miss, Arena Is A Wait And See Stock [View article]
    Yitzi.......

    Pharma development companies always talk to big pharma. I do put much into the fact that they are doing what they should be doing.
    Aug 7, 2015. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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