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Spencer Osborne

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  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    Sedric...

    I felt it was pretty clearly stated. Here it is again...

    "Near term catalysts include television ads, which I feel will generate an "excitement push" for the equity, and any approvals in other countries. Belviq has long standing applications pending in Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, and a more recent application in Brazil. If approval in another country happens, the sales pace will accelerate faster."

    Note the second sentence. It starts with the word "IF"

    Try to read more slowly. It helps with comprhension and context
    Apr 4 04:32 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Refills - Week 20 [View article]
    Davin....

    Thank you for taking the time to share your opinion that is quite wrong.

    1. I own far more shares than 5

    2. A contributor does not need to have any shares in an equity to write about it.

    Thank you for the comment and being the example of the lowest common denominator of our society.

    Cheers
    Nov 5 08:39 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Prescription Data - Week 23 [View article]
    Readers...

    I want to thank all of those who took the time to wish my bride and me well on our wedding and honeymoon. The wedding was amazing and the honeymoon was outstanding. Thank You and Cheers!
    Nov 25 01:51 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Investors Await Strong Sales Data [View article]
    Shrimper....

    I do know that the ad was filed on the 23rd and today. I covered that on my website.

    Your assessment of smart investors not caring about sales data is an interesting opinion. In my opinion sales is of paramount importance to this company. I say as much in the article. To fluff off sales as not being important is to say that the recurring revenue those sales will generate is not important. In my opinion smart and savvy investors monitor sales closely.

    Is arena about to take off? If sales come in in good numbers it certainly can. If sales do not, it could be a much longer and slower build. These are dynamics I cover on my website.

    You can say that you (and a small group of message board posters have outlived my writing, but you are in a very very small minority. The vast majority appreciate them. In 2013 I pegged the top and the bottom on this equity.

    I follow the WSJ, Barron's, Forbes, etc. every investor should monitor these things.

    Cheers
    Jan 24 04:13 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]
    JD...

    I have heard the same thing on television ads.

    The mix on reps will be 186 Eisai full time and 414 Quintiles reps. Currently there are 214 Quintiles reps and 186 Eisai reps
    Apr 4 03:17 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sees Growth Continue With Belviq [View article]
    highstandard....

    Let's consider a few things.

    FACTS

    - We know that between Launch and December 31st that 157,000 bottles of Belviq shipped.

    - We know that the initial stock-up of inventory was 50,000 bottles.

    - We know that IMS and Symphony only track sales, and not inventory.

    - We know that unadjusted IMS for the end of the year was at about 105,000 if you stop counting at December 27th, and about 109,000 if you stop at January 3rd.

    - We know that unadjusted Symphony was at 124,000 and 128,000 respectively (depending on where you stop

    Now, understanding these facts above, let's make some prudent assumptioins.

    1. Is it reasonable to think that there was inventory on the shelves that was not captured by IMS or Symphony in their data? YES

    2. Is it reasonable to think that the inventory could be as low as 30,000 and as high as 50,000? YES

    3. Is it reasonable to use 40,000 as an inventory estimate? YES

    4. Is it reasonable to take the 157,000 shipped and deduct the reasonable inventory to arrive at an estimate of actual sales? YES

    Thus, if we take the bottles shipped number of 157,000 and deduct 40,000 for inventory, we arrive at 117,000.

    If you adjust IMS up by 10% you get pretty close to what we have established using known facts and reasonable assumptions. If you look at Symphony, it is actually above the reasonable numbers I just laid out.

    If a person wanted to say Symphony is the accurate one, then you would have to assume that Eisai let inventory levels drop to 30,000. Is that reasonable as well? Certainly

    So, I adjust IMS up by 10% and I leave Symphony alone. When the next quarterly report comes out, we will have another data point to refine with.

    So, given the information I just laid out for you (which it seems you have not taken the time to really assess), do you still consider a 10% adjustment as a lowball? OR....is it actually pretty well thought out?

    You see, some people like to spend all of their time looking for a boogey-man that is not there. They get so obsessed with looking for a boogey-man that they set aside any and all reasonable thought.
    Mar 7 04:27 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Pass 4,000 On IMS [View article]
    Eteral...

    1. This series is designed to remain consistent with the data numbers and a little bit of opinion added. This is not supposed to be sexy or do anything other than put out the numbers.

    2. I am not touting a $12 price target. Analysts had that number assigned and had similar projections. This simply tracks the actual sales vs. the path that it would take to get to the $12 price target that these analysts have. As I state, the concept is a theory. Now, one of those analysts has a $10 target and just today the other remained at $12. I am assessing, as stated, how to reflect this now that we are seeing more spread.

    3. How am I putting up unrealistic expectations? The company put out the $150 million. The analysts put out the $12 target. What I am doing is painting a picture of what it would take to get to those objectives. If you find it unrealistic, then you should take exception to the company or the analysts. For months I laid out what I considered a reasonable path, and got slammed for "lowballing". As it turns out, my expectations were realistic.

    Hope you have a great weekend
    Oct 4 01:51 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Completes 4th Week Of Sales [View article]
    Readers....

    Last Evening I did a radio interview with Belviq patient Ellie Wenker. She is a wonderful person that is courageous enough to put her trials and tribulations out there for the word to see. She is having results with Belviq, and the show is a good example of the potential in this drug, as well as in people. You can listen to the show via the link below:

    http://bit.ly/1drsruK
    Jul 12 01:24 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Investors Await Strong Sales Data [View article]
    Brian....

    I do like arena. I am invested in it. That does not mean that I need to wave Pom-poms. As a writer covering the sector, I do not have that luxury. I simply cover things objectively and realistically. The Pom poms are fine on message boards, but that is about it.

    Arena is doing okay. There is still a lot to do.
    Jan 24 04:25 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Scripts Showing Traction - Vivus As Well [View article]
    jakes....

    They were decent. If the week over week was closer to 30%, the traction in the equity could sustain. I discussed the potential for a rest in the equity on my website over the last 2 or three days.

    We need to see 10% numbers going forward to see the equity appreciate. Otherwise, the speculation play shifts to the second half of the year and we see the typical roller coaster.

    I know you appreciate what I am saying. I also know there is a class of readers that will slam me for it. I simply try to tell it like it is
    Jan 17 02:05 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Reaches Critical Point On Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Jakes....

    I found out at about 8:00 AM Eastern. I submitted at about 9:00 AM Eastern. I do not control when they publish.

    On ACA....

    I feel it is a travesty because it has a very HUGE impact on small business. Small business typically considered a company with fewer than 500 employees. Small companies simply can not afford the changes in many cases.

    I used to buy my own insurance. The plan I bought cost me about $12k a year. The "new" plan was set to be about $25k a year. In order to stay at about $12k, my out of pocket expense (co-pays and deductibles and pharma coverage) would have been substantial. Essentially the lesson would be to not get sick. The middle class in this country has footed a huge bill for many things...adding insurance to the list is the straw that will break the back.

    ACA can work if we get rid of all of the waste and abuse in other subsidies. Abuse is rampant.

    There is a mentality of entitlement that has creeped into society. What used to be a safety net for people in rough times (until they get back on their feet) has now become a way of life. People used to try to get off of the freebies as fast as possible. Now people find any way they can to obtain the freebies. That type of abuse hurts the ones that really need the help.
    Feb 10 12:38 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Reaches Critical Point On Insurance Coverage [View article]
    Feelin.....

    I hear this a lot. A doctor will decide the best course of action, and which drug is appropriate. The LAST thing we want (as a society) is to give insurance companies the control to "push" one product over another. Now....as an investor, it is good to have a drug you are invested in be a drug that is "pushed", but that is a moral question that each individual person needs to assess for themselves.

    For example, a doctor may find that a patient taking an SSRI should not go on Belviq. In that case, Qsymia may well be the safest approach. In addition, Belviq is still new. New means unknowns. The data on the ingredients for Qsymia (and Contrave for that matter) are well known, well studied, and well understood. Even though Belviq appears to have a safer profile in many respects, the "unknown" factor is something that a good doctor will consider when assessing what drug is the right drug for a patient.

    The moral of the story...

    None of these drugs is "The Right Way To Go" for every person.

    My Opinion:

    - The first step is PROPER diet and PROPER exercise WITHOUT using a drug. I bold the word proper, because many say or think they eat right and exercise right, but do not. Taking a flight of stairs instead of an elevator does not qualify as PROPER exercise. Eating a Salad with gobbs of dressing is not a PROPER diet. Weight Watchers actually has VERY GOOD programs to educate people.

    - If that fails, a drug may be a good addition to kick start a healthier life. A doctor needs to assess the patient as well as any meds being taken. The doctor needs to discuss risks, side effects, etc. Cost does come into play as well for many people. The right drug is arrived at AFTER these assessments are made

    - In my opinion, once the lifestyle changes are achieved and the person has the ability to do things right, they should seek to find a way off of the drug and maintain without a pill.

    The GOOD doctors I know and speak to pretty much follow what is listed above. Investors want to push a product because it benefits them financially.
    Feb 10 10:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Scripts Showing Traction - Vivus As Well [View article]
    Logic...

    I am long the stock, but do not write based on that. My well defined history in what I have written demonstrates that I am pretty objective with what and how i write. I resent your insinuations.

    I agree that this equity has seen a run of late and could top out here in the near term. I have been discussing that for three days now on my site.

    Impressing me is getting to about $33 million in three months. These numbers do not get us there. That is why I speak to 10% weekly growth in the near term as being important.
    Jan 17 02:32 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Receives Good News From FDA [View article]
    ruf....

    It was not meant to be an exact statement.

    If we want exacting, I guess we could say 165 days...which would be 23.57 weeks....or 5.5 months using a 30 day month.

    Please forgive me for being too general even after mentioning the June 10th date.
    Jan 7 02:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies Ahead For Arena Pharmaceuticals? [View article]
    Max.....

    I do not know why you wrote this comment to me. I have nothing at all to do with this article.

    Cheers and happy new year
    Jan 2 09:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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