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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]

    I felt it was pretty clearly stated. Here it is again...

    "Near term catalysts include television ads, which I feel will generate an "excitement push" for the equity, and any approvals in other countries. Belviq has long standing applications pending in Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, and a more recent application in Brazil. If approval in another country happens, the sales pace will accelerate faster."

    Note the second sentence. It starts with the word "IF"

    Try to read more slowly. It helps with comprhension and context
    Apr 4, 2014. 04:32 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Refills - Week 20 [View article]

    Thank you for taking the time to share your opinion that is quite wrong.

    1. I own far more shares than 5

    2. A contributor does not need to have any shares in an equity to write about it.

    Thank you for the comment and being the example of the lowest common denominator of our society.

    Nov 5, 2013. 08:39 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Script Sales Start Recovery As Television Ads Hit Air [View article]

    The insider sales were exercising and planned sales of options. None of these sales resulted in a decrease of ownership. See my comments on the article you referenced
    Apr 25, 2014. 05:15 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Prescription Data - Week 23 [View article]

    I want to thank all of those who took the time to wish my bride and me well on our wedding and honeymoon. The wedding was amazing and the honeymoon was outstanding. Thank You and Cheers!
    Nov 25, 2013. 01:51 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Prescription Sales OK - CEO Sales Are Not [View article]

    1. We are all aware that it was a planned sale.

    2. Jack Lief makes a very good salary.
    Jul 7, 2014. 04:49 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Investors Await Strong Sales Data [View article]

    I do know that the ad was filed on the 23rd and today. I covered that on my website.

    Your assessment of smart investors not caring about sales data is an interesting opinion. In my opinion sales is of paramount importance to this company. I say as much in the article. To fluff off sales as not being important is to say that the recurring revenue those sales will generate is not important. In my opinion smart and savvy investors monitor sales closely.

    Is arena about to take off? If sales come in in good numbers it certainly can. If sales do not, it could be a much longer and slower build. These are dynamics I cover on my website.

    You can say that you (and a small group of message board posters have outlived my writing, but you are in a very very small minority. The vast majority appreciate them. In 2013 I pegged the top and the bottom on this equity.

    I follow the WSJ, Barron's, Forbes, etc. every investor should monitor these things.

    Jan 24, 2014. 04:13 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals: 4 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month [View article]
    I always find it interesting when people discuss sales by company executives. There are many reasons why an insider may sell an equity. There is one reason they buy.

    In the case of Belcher

    This person had 68,728 shares prior to this transaction and 68,728 shares after the transaction. Thus, the interest of this person remained exactly the same. The sale may have nothing to do with a sentiment about performance of the company. This person has stock valued at $412,000 in this company. Perhaps this is a person that does not want to put all their proverbial eggs into one basket. Exercising options and selling them off immediately is pretty common. In particular when the person already carries a substantial interest in the company.

    Had 35,000 shares prior to transaction and 35,000 shares after it

    Had 18,728 prior to the transaction and 18,728 subsequent to it

    Had 82,876 before the transaction and the same amount after.

    The point here is that these exercises and sales kept each of these individuals at the same position they were already at.

    Apr 25, 2014. 02:58 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Script Sales Close Out Quarter On Positive Note [View article]

    I have heard the same thing on television ads.

    The mix on reps will be 186 Eisai full time and 414 Quintiles reps. Currently there are 214 Quintiles reps and 186 Eisai reps
    Apr 4, 2014. 03:17 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen - Contrave Scripts Up, Equity Down, Approval In Europe Still Not Announced [View article]

    Oh My!

    1. There are not 20 plus lawsuits. Just because a law firm "initiates an investigation does not mean that there is a lawsuit. If you get a pacer account and look up the Orexigen you will note that there are 3 lawsuits.

    2. Black box warnings are on ALL antidepressants since 2004. Antidepressants get this warning no matter what.

    Bock, please find something else to do.
    Mar 21, 2015. 10:44 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Stock Rises With Expected Jump In Belviq Sales [View article]

    It is not a bear is a realism side. My writing is only seen as bearish by those that are "uber-bulls"
    Jul 18, 2014. 03:03 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sees Growth Continue With Belviq [View article]

    Let's consider a few things.


    - We know that between Launch and December 31st that 157,000 bottles of Belviq shipped.

    - We know that the initial stock-up of inventory was 50,000 bottles.

    - We know that IMS and Symphony only track sales, and not inventory.

    - We know that unadjusted IMS for the end of the year was at about 105,000 if you stop counting at December 27th, and about 109,000 if you stop at January 3rd.

    - We know that unadjusted Symphony was at 124,000 and 128,000 respectively (depending on where you stop

    Now, understanding these facts above, let's make some prudent assumptioins.

    1. Is it reasonable to think that there was inventory on the shelves that was not captured by IMS or Symphony in their data? YES

    2. Is it reasonable to think that the inventory could be as low as 30,000 and as high as 50,000? YES

    3. Is it reasonable to use 40,000 as an inventory estimate? YES

    4. Is it reasonable to take the 157,000 shipped and deduct the reasonable inventory to arrive at an estimate of actual sales? YES

    Thus, if we take the bottles shipped number of 157,000 and deduct 40,000 for inventory, we arrive at 117,000.

    If you adjust IMS up by 10% you get pretty close to what we have established using known facts and reasonable assumptions. If you look at Symphony, it is actually above the reasonable numbers I just laid out.

    If a person wanted to say Symphony is the accurate one, then you would have to assume that Eisai let inventory levels drop to 30,000. Is that reasonable as well? Certainly

    So, I adjust IMS up by 10% and I leave Symphony alone. When the next quarterly report comes out, we will have another data point to refine with.

    So, given the information I just laid out for you (which it seems you have not taken the time to really assess), do you still consider a 10% adjustment as a lowball? it actually pretty well thought out?

    You see, some people like to spend all of their time looking for a boogey-man that is not there. They get so obsessed with looking for a boogey-man that they set aside any and all reasonable thought.
    Mar 7, 2014. 04:27 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Completes 4th Week Of Sales [View article]

    Last Evening I did a radio interview with Belviq patient Ellie Wenker. She is a wonderful person that is courageous enough to put her trials and tribulations out there for the word to see. She is having results with Belviq, and the show is a good example of the potential in this drug, as well as in people. You can listen to the show via the link below:
    Jul 12, 2013. 01:24 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Investors Should Watch New Pricing Of Belviq Closely [View article]

    As you are likely aware, I cover Arena more closely than the others.

    Specific to adverse events....

    1. The data is raw. It takes hours to comb through in order to correlate the adverse events to the number that were reported. I simply do not have the time, or inclination to spend additional hours on culling though Qsymia. I did give the number of events for Qsymia, as getting the amount of events is not as time consuming.

    2. I clearly state, and if you follow this sector you would be aware, that FDA adverse events carry a 6 month lag. The latest data was for Q2 of 2014. Please follow along on this.....Q2 is for April, May, and June of 2014. Seeing that Contrave did not launch until October, there would be no data to report on. The first Contrave data is still 9 months away.

    If you would like to donate your time to correlate the Qsymia data to the specific adverse events, then I will gladly publish it. It is likely about a 6 hour process. I do not have the time to do it, but did take the time to do the ratio's (if you look).

    I made no real comment on the data, nor the adverse events. You could say. "Thank You" and assess the data, or you could complain. You made a choice to complain.
    Jan 9, 2015. 12:54 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Trends - A Realistic Look [View article]

    You can have that opinion, but look at my weekly tracking to see that sales levels are right in line with what I laid out at the beginning of the year. You say I do not know squat. My track record shows that you are wrong
    Sep 5, 2014. 05:27 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sees Belviq Sales Climb Despite Seasonality [View article]

    I am long the stock. I have never been anything but long the stock. Full and honest disclosure is something I take seriously.

    I have a wife and two children. Do you really think that I would risk my freedom by being anything other than honest about my disclosure as well as any all all financial interests?

    I will tell you what. I am perfectly will to open up every aspect of my accounts, computer files, phone records etc. I will put up $250k that backs up exactly what I say. You can go through every aspect to any depth you want. If you find that I am short this equity, or that my disclosures are not accurate, you get $250 k. However, if I have indeed been truthful in the fact that I am long and have never been short, and my financial interests are not what I have disclosed, you give me $250k.

    I am a full veteran. I have honor and integrity. I am a family man and work by a moral compass that most do not posses. The fact that you are cowardly enough to raise such accusations against me in an anonymous fashion speaks volumes. The fact that you are likely unwilling to back up your cowardly words is also quite telling.

    As to your comment. I have no control over what comments get posted or deleted. I will say that your comment was posted, and my response was posted. Whether either of our comments stay up is not my call.

    You can step up to the plate, or be a coward. The ball is in your court. I will forward this exact message in a private message to you do there will be no doubt about whether or not you saw it.
    Jul 25, 2014. 10:42 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment