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Spencer Osborne  

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  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Pop, Equity Response Muted [View article]
    dc....

    I will try to include it in next weeks report.
    Apr 25, 2015. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Scripts Pop, Recover From Previous Dip [View article]
    nai....

    Contrave is growing FASTER than Belviq.

    The market is essentially growing with the new drugs. phentermine sales have been pretty steady for YEARS. Please do not fool yourself into thinking that because Belviq is growing that market leadership is not important. By your measure, Qsymia growing at less than 75 scripts a week over the past year is good. It is not.
    Apr 25, 2015. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Side Effects And Efficacy Of New Weight Loss Drugs [View instapost]
    I have nothing against belviq, but I see MORE SPIN from Arena longs than any other of these drug investments. Here is some CLASSIC SPIN put out by a contributor to SA.


    "MORE people lost at least 5% on Belviq than they did on Contrave after one year."

    Spin in the sense that the autor never considers the ratio vs. PLACEBO. Read above in the article and this is easy to see.

    "For every ONE person who quits Belviq due to adverse side effects, more than TEN will lose at least 5%."

    This is TOTAL BULLSH*T. More than half of those that take Belviq lose less than 10%. It is in the trial data. For every 100 people that try belviq, 47 will lose 5%. About 25% drop due to side effects. The statement made by this person is GROSS SPIN. If he is trying to pump up Arena, he is only going to hurt it by posting such obvious BS.

    "For every ONE person who quits Contrave due to side effects... about TWO will lose at least 5%."

    More utter BS. There are more people that have adverse events with Contrave, but the thought process behind this statement is GROSSLY FLAWED for the same reasons as in the comment above. Look at the clinical trials and you will see this.

    The shame in these types of misinformation campaigns is that the people impacted by them are the MOST NAIVE. People with the ability to think beyond a 9th grade level see through this type of spin. Those people will DISCOUNT Arena as investment because of its ability to attract snake oil salesman that hawk these kinds of BS interpretations of reality. This guy THINKS he is helping the cause but in reality is a SEVERE DETRIMENT to it.
    Apr 25, 2015. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Pop, Equity Response Muted [View article]
    dcx.....

    Contrave is seeing good refill rates in comparison to the other drugs. I have covered this in the past, and track it each week. It is better than what Vivus and Belviq have been seeing.
    Apr 25, 2015. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Pop, Equity Response Muted [View article]
    dc...

    Average patient duration is 2 to 3 months
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Pop, Equity Response Muted [View article]
    timing.....

    The first quarter of the lunch included channel stuffing to bring the invenorty up to what was needed. Orexigens revenue per bottle will likely be well under $26 per bottle
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Pop, Equity Response Muted [View article]
    short slayer....

    Run along. If you do not like the articles.....do not read them.

    I do not really want to dedicate the time or energy to providing you with the pacifier you want only to know that you will complain about it.
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Faces Generic Challenge For Anti-Obesity Drug [View article]
    tigba.....

    NOPE.

    On both occasions that you leveled such an accusation, there was more than one article written. It is highly likely that this is a case of USER ERROR in that you mistakenly believe that a comment of yours has disappeared because when you go to look for your comment, you go to a DIFFERENT ARTICLE. Will you run out and proclaim that your comment was never deleted? probably not. You love to SMEAR, and hat to admit in a matter that is just as public that you were wrong.

    The Vivus case is in TRIAL COURT with a proposed schedule that will not begin until September of 2016
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Pop, Equity Response Muted [View article]
    Short....

    My investment has nothing to do with what I write. You can certainly have an opinion on how I best can serve my readership, but more likely than not it is a very, very, very wrong opinion. I serve my readers in the best way I see fit. Plain and simple. I do not let whether or not I own the stock influence what I write. Pjs in and simple.

    You say a trend line is conjecture.n I say you do not have the foggiest idea what you are talking about. Data are data. The more quickly your head can absorb that concept the better off you will be. Data are not conjecture.

    How do you expect me to know who bough or sold shares within a session? I am not on the trading floor. Do you report to me when you buy or sell?

    Script tracking is just that. Script tracking. It is a small component if the stock. If you do not appreciate it....move along. Pay someone to give you the analysis you seek. You want me to spend the time doing what you ask for? I will do it. Kindly cut me a check for $4,000 a week. I do not write for a living. I write as more of a hobby. If you like it...great...if not, simply close your mouth and walk away.you have expressed your desire for something more. Go out and find it. I quoted you my price to supply what you are looking for.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Pop, Equity Response Muted [View article]
    short....

    Data are data. If you argue with the data you will be wrong. Let's stop a moment and THINK.

    The article published WEDNESDAY was for data from 4/10/15. You simply need to input data and establish a trend line. When a new data point comes in the trend line will shift. When there are data from other companies, the points can shift even further. the new data points are from 4/17/15.

    I am helping you here, because CLEARLY you are not comprehending some simple mathematical concepts. If belviq scripts were 13,000 on 4/17, then the crossover point would be even sooner. It is really not that complex.

    Take YOUR dabblings and RUN ALONG. Once you learn some basic math, perhaps we can carry on a meaningful dialogue

    Example....If belviq scripts were
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Investors Can Get Litigation Insight From Vivus [View article]
    short....

    You need to define what you believe exponentially is, and place a time-frame on it.

    When you speak of a few bucks, I do not consider that exponential. Not even close.
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Scripts Down: Competition, Or Lack Of Commitment From Partner Eisai? [View article]
    max....

    A few things:

    1. Are you aware that the Prix Galien Nomination is a "pay to play" thing? You pay money to nominate yourself. Thus, being nominated simply means you ponied up the dollars to be nominated. Winning the award is what would be meaningful. If you are assigning value to the fact that Eisai/Arena paid to nominate themselves for an award, you are being fooled.

    2. Pipelines have value as potential. They also have HARD COSTS to bring to fruition. 4 drugs in the pipeline.....let's say $2 billion to bring to a point of application. Where is that money.

    3. Oft times a company will get better valuation with no products on the market. Arena, with a product on the market, is going to be judged on the success of that product.

    4. The argument about shorts is essentially MEANINGLESS and this has been shown to be the case time after time. Some investors just like to have a boogey man to blame and "shorts " is the easy thing to say.
    Apr 24, 2015. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Investors Can Get Litigation Insight From Vivus [View article]
    Chris....

    There is a very severe tendency for people invested in these equities to be overly passionate about the company they invested in and overly critical of the ones they are not invested in. Typically you will see very general statements that are not really backed up with thought, data, or reasoned sense. Often these statements are parroted from innocuous statements made on some message board or another. After seeing the same statement made time and time again, people begin to believe that there is truth to them or the statement is gospel.

    What I just stated is probably a better explanation than you will see otherwise. Cheers
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Investors Can Get Litigation Insight From Vivus [View article]
    short....

    A few points:

    1. When Takeda partnered up in 2010 the thoughts of everyone were that anti-obesity drugs were going to be huge, massive, over the moon, and ginormous. The reality has been much different. Yes, I am sure Takeda did a lot of DD. So did Eisai when they invested in Arena's offering. Eisai thought first year sales would be $200 million and it was up from there. the reality of the market has proven to be much more modest. If you can do about $1 billion in 3 years, it is perhaps worth absorbing the generic risk.

    2. Please define exponentially and offer up your timeframe on this happening.

    3. Leading in sales in the U.S. is not weeks away, but rather months.
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen Investors Can Get Litigation Insight From Vivus [View article]
    By the way, logic man.....

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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