Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Spencer Osborne  

View Spencer Osborne's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Vivus - Qsymia Sales Will Likely Hit Problematic Point [View article]

    There have indeed been problems for quite some time. The new issue is that if it loses too much market share, it may get even worse and may make recovery even more difficult.

    Nothing will happen with anything healthcare until after the election next fall, and even then, things will move slowly
    Nov 25, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Set New Record- Still Not Enough To Satisfy The Street [View article]

    We will agree to disagree. I do not see This drug being anywhere close to blockbuster in 2016
    Nov 25, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus - Qsymia Sales Will Likely Hit Problematic Point [View article]

    There is no spinning the bottle. I present the WHOLE financial picture. You are the spinner in this conversation.

    What does Arena have to do with a Vivus discussion? Nothing. You are simply a frustrated Vivus investor that wants to cast blame anywhere possible other than where it belongs. Arena has investors that do the same thing.

    I have been wrong on arena for years now? Nope. I called the sales levels with uncanny accuracy and do it before the pitch is thrown, not after. The revie shows it. You are making piss poor assumptions on some preconceived notions that you likely got from other message board trolls living in Grandmas basement.

    Both companies will be standing in 6 months to a year. Both will likely be treading water to a large extent and both will have excuse makers such as yourself falling for whatever carrot managements put in front of them.
    Nov 24, 2015. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus - Qsymia Sales Will Likely Hit Problematic Point [View article]

    I will answer for you....

    Stendra/Spedra Supply Revenue

    "For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2015, we recognized $10.1 million and $26 . 7 million in supply revenue"

    Royalty Revenue

    "For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2015, w e recognized $0.9 million and $1.2 million, respectively, in net royalty revenue on net sales reported by our commercialization partners"

    Cost of Goods Sold

    "For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2015, cost of goods sold related to Qsymia was $2. 3 million and $6.4 million, respectively, and cost of goods sold rel ated to STENDRA or SPEDRA was $9.4 million and $25.1 million"

    What happens when you take the delta between the revenue and the cost to gain that revenue?

    For the first 9 months of the year all revenue was $27.9 million

    The cost of the goods was $25.1 million.

    Stendra, in 2015, is on the plus side by about $2.8 million before we consider R&D and administrative costs.

    That is the reality at this point.

    You love to tout the revenue as something great and fail to consider the cost side. How does your spin look when put to the test of real numbers that are all fully considered?
    Nov 24, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus - Qsymia Sales Will Likely Hit Problematic Point [View article]

    I am not splitting hairs. The reality is what it is. Vivus desperately wanated a partner and was never able to land one. That is a VERY material aspect of any conversation.

    Tryiong to say, "Vivus beats the other in revenue" and leaving it at just that statement, in isolation, is SPIN.

    "ARNA has a partner and even with the up front money ARNA's revenue is dismal at best, just a fraction of VVUS over all revenue."

    Arena amortizes the revenue over the term of the deal. Typically about a couple of million per quarter. That is revenue that they get regardless of how well or how bad sales are.

    Qsymia revenue was $14 million, but marketing costs were $11 million. The net was $3 million. I see overpassionate investors that love to spin things, yet try their hardest to avoid the real issues and real numbers.

    Let's flesh out a few things.

    1. Do you agree with Vivus management that finding a partner for Qsymia is preferred over having to go it alone?

    2. Do you agree that sales are way more flat than needed?

    3. Do you think that sales are likely to increase or decrease with less marketing?

    "ARNA is blowing thru cash and they have much less cash than VVUS."

    A bit of spin. Vivus also has "much more debt" than Arena. In fact, Vivus owes $300 million in debt and has $284 million in cash. How does that work in the long term? In contrast, Arena has no debt and about $180 million in cash.

    "Although VVUS did receive up front cash from Stendra and Spedra partners, they are making more off of the Stendra and Spedra (Avanafil) than ARNA is making from Belviq sales."

    Again, you are being quite selective. You may want to consider things like cost of goods sold. Looking at revenue alone is folley. Bt example, Arena books money that Eisai reimburses for trial costs as revenue. Essentially, they pay out money and when it is paid back it looks like revenue. Please, you really, really, really, really, really need to look at the whole equation.

    "You cannot be taken serious when you write about ARNA. The Company is and has been a huge joke and tremendous flop."

    You have apparently not been reading what I write about Arena and instead base your opinion on preconceived notions derived from some worthless message board out there.

    Tell you what, if you want a meaningful conversation, that is great. If you want to try to toss spin into the situation, I will simply expose it.

    The entire sector is sucking wind. That is what I write. I not only believe it...I know it. You Vivus spinners, and Arena spinners are all cut from the same cloth.

    Let's look at Stendra last Q.

    Be so kind as to give me the cost of good sold on Stendra, the supply revenue, and the royalty revenue.
    Nov 24, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Drop- Company Deploying New Strategy [View article]

    "Spencer - first off the meeting should have happened as it did."

    I disagree in many ways.

    1. The meeting should never have been agreed to because there was no quantification of what type of standing the group had, what the membership was, if the group was organized, whether those that attended had the authority or power to speak on behalf of others, etc.

    2. What is the group? who is the group? what is the agenda of the group? Is the group united? Is someone simply implying that the group is united? What "laundry" was the group holding over the head of management? What "laundry was being held over the board? Were all members of the group aware of a possible derivative suit? Frankly, this group lacked (and still lacks) any semblance of what a true group would have.

    3. Management should have insisted on knowing much more prior to agreeing to a meeting.

    4. The group, by conducting itself the way it did, and management, by taking this meeting, put every shareholder at severe risk from class action suits that various "ambulance chasers" are trying to assemble as I type.

    I could go on, but wont. Frankly, I think this group is massively counter-productive unless it establishes its mission, states it, and allows all shareholders to understand what its intentions are. Right now, as currently constituted, this group is the "Nazi SS" of Arena shareholders and is out seeking support despite a total lack of a publicized platform.

    "It wasn't a fiasco at all and we achieved our main objective."

    An objective was never laid out. Did the derivative suit happen? If not, why?

    Sorry, but it was an unmitigated fiasco for 99.5% of shareholders.
    Nov 24, 2015. 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus - Qsymia Sales Will Likely Hit Problematic Point [View article]

    "Spencer, your argument makes Zero sense."

    You are entitled to your opinion. The stock price shows that my stance is spot on. Since the measuring stick is what the stock does, I feel my stance is sound.

    "VVUS has not had marketing support since it was launched"

    Not true. They have repeatedly cut back reps. The only way you can cut back marketing costs is if some existed to start with. Your statement does not jive with the financials, whichj show pretty big numbers for marketing.

    "and has beaten both ARNA and OREX in total revenue year over year."

    You are just looking at one very narrow part of the equation. How many hundreds of millions did Vivus get in advance for a partnership? How many tens of millions? They have no partner, and got no up-front money. The others did. How much do Arena and Orex pay for marketing? None. How much does Vivus pay? A ton. There is a reason that Vivus wanted desperately to sign a partner. It would get them up front money and would take having to spend on marketing out of the equation. Do you disagree with management and think that Vivus should not seek a partner?

    "ARNA has been the most complete flop of all three companies."

    It is easy to type words, but not as easy to back them up. How do you arrive at that opinion?

    "You first said you made a play for ARNA because of Belviq, then you changed that and said your play in ARNA is now for the smoking cessation, since that argument has failed miserably, you are now saying your play in ARNA is for the pipe line of drugs."

    Does the concept of progression elude you? I invested in Arena just after approval primarily to play the anti-obesity space but also because of pipeline. I sold half of my stock at a good profit when the sales numbers were nowhere near the guidance. That sale is a reflection of trimming shares because the projections are not what was anticipated.

    I sold the remaining half in 2014 to for tax purposes with the intent of buying back in after the wash rule expired. Eisai made some statements about how it would market the drug that I felt were bullish. When I bought back in, i bought to levels back to (actually slightly larger) my original position. I went back up in stake to primarily to play the 2015 anti-obesity season.

    In March I saw that Eisai was not holding to what it stated. I sold 33% of my position because the anti-obesity sector was not tracking to what I liked. That left me with shares that were tied to smoking AND pipeline. I trimmed again after the Q2 call because smoking was delayed. In the Q3 call, when smoking was shelved, I trimmed shares associated with that and am now left with a pure pipeline play.

    This is rather simple. It is progression. I am sorry if my very transparent disclosures went over your head the first few times. Hopefully you are grasping the idea now.

    "If ARNA has lost more money Quarter over Quarter and has had to raise cash twice in two years just to stay afloat."

    I have spoken to dilution and Arena many times. It is a big concern of mine and why I limit my exposure in the company to something very modest.

    "I am not saying VVUS is going to sky rocket any time soon, but if I had to open my window and throw money out at a passer by, I would aim for VVUS over ARNA any day of the week."

    You are certainly entitled to your opinion. Personally, aside from very modest plays in the sector, I put money elsewhere. You like Vivus more than Arena. Great. Any reason why?
    Nov 24, 2015. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus - Qsymia Sales Will Likely Hit Problematic Point [View article]

    There is not a requirement that a person be invested in a comosny to cover it. Vivus is in a sector I cover. I quite often write or discuss companies that I am not invested in. Do you read the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, etc. do you think those writers are all invested in a comosny that they write about?

    Ok. Now that we have that out if the there anything related to the article, sector, or company that you wish to discuss. Do you agree with points I made or disagree? Why? This would be a much more compelling discussion if we discussed things that matter.
    Nov 23, 2015. 08:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Sales Drop- Company Deploying New Strategy [View article]

    Hiring an IR firm was probably wise. The firm hired is young. I do not see this as a key driver for much. It would be much more exciting if the announced the hiring of a company that helps with strategic planning and M&A.

    Ironically, had they had such a firm a few months ago that fiasco of a meeting would never have taken place. I know you are a part of that group, but that meeting should have never happened as it was constituted.
    Nov 23, 2015. 07:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus - Qsymia Sales Will Likely Hit Problematic Point [View article]

    There is no conflict of interest
    Nov 23, 2015. 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zafgen Beats The Street, Preserves Cash - Is It Still An Attractive Play? [View article]

    The days to cover the short position is less than 2. I do not see this as being something that would drive a squeeze.

    Typically, a meaningful squeeze happens when days to cover approaches 10.

    Short Interest is abou 2.9 million shares.
    Nov 23, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    You are confused. You simply do not have a high enough level of reading comprehension to converse in this space.

    The investment thesis was to play the FDA approval and sell the pop.

    The FDA approval happened and the pop happened.

    On the day of these events I was in meetings related to a multi million dollar development deal. I missed the pop because I was making a bunch more money elsewhere. This has been widely discussed, and frankly widely understood by all readers with a reading level above the third grade.

    Now, stop being a troll and stop wasting bandwidth.
    Nov 22, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orexigen: Contrave Sales Set New Record- Still Not Enough To Satisfy The Street [View article]
    The sahib......

    "2016 will be a blockbuster year for Orex"

    Blockbuster is $1 billion in gross sales in 1 year. Do you really think that the are going to do $1 billion next year?
    Nov 21, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    You are a troll. and you know you are not correct.

    This very equity is a prime example. The play was FDA approval. The pop was a quick double.
    Nov 21, 2015. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enteromedics - Looking At The Numbers [View article]

    kindly refer to the link below. Refer to #7
    Nov 20, 2015. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment