What Personalized Radio Will Mean To Sirius XM [View article]
uncharted....
Forgive me for being very blunt here.
The use of the term Pandorka is sophomoric, childish, and takes away from any point you try to make. It demonstrates the "nanny nanny boo boo" or "my dad can beat up your dad" behavior and mentality.
Comparing SIRI to these is not pointless from a consumer standpoint. Whether or not Panora makes or loses money is not the relevant iusse. I do not care if they make or lose money, as I am not invested in Pandora. Pandora does however have a substantial following (66 million active users) and that means that people are listening to Sirius XM less because of it. To ignore that is folley. Sirius XM certainly understands the need to create a better IP platform (even it is does not generate revenue). You would be well served to grasp that notion.
Vivus Gets Expected European Rejection [View article]
Reality....
There are many drugs that get used for purposes that are not intended. That language is pretty boilerplate.
Bellviq is intended for use in obese patients with set conditions, one of which happens to be type 2 diabetes.
"The drug is approved for use in adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or greater (obese), or adults with a BMI of 27 or greater (overweight) and who have at least one weight-related condition such as high blood pressure (hypertension), type 2 diabetes, or high cholesterol (dyslipidemia)"
Are you aware of what diabetes is and the statistics surrounding it?
More likely than not someone with type 2 diabetes is also obese. A treatment that can help obesity while at the same time get Type 2 diabetes under control is a good thing.
It seems as if you are so desperate to find something bad in things that you do not conduct any realistic research and jump to conclusions. I suspect that you are a regular on message boards that carry on with mindless banter about one vs. the other.
It was just a couple of weeks ago that you were on a rampage that the DEA would "have to give Belviq schedule 2 and that all 2C drugs must be schedule 2" Upon myself and others pointing out a few things to you, you have backed off of that message board rant and now are at schedule 3.
I do not see doom for EU approval. I see the company of having a decent shot at getting it.
I realize that you want, hope, and desire for Belviq to fail, but YOUR wants, hopes, and desires, do not dictate the FDA, the DEA, or the EU.
Sirius XM: Still Not Time To Get Back In [View article]
The poor comment comment was directed at regarding solutions.
"why would anyone even think of buying shares of this stock?"
Why do people buy or sell any stock? Because they feel there is a potential to make money. Some do not care about fundementals and some do not care about technicals, but most care about making money. A stock such as SIRI, which is heavily traded provides a marketplace to make money.
"This is an article that typifies useless technical babble and nobody really cares what YOUR price target is."
This comment serves what purpose exactly? It is GROSSLY inaccurate as there are many who use technical analysis as part of their overall strategy. The GREATEST minds in the markets use technical information. You may not care about what the authors price target is, but many likely do. It is a valuable piece of information that helps delve into why the author has the opinion he does. YOUR opinion on this matter may well be considered drivel by some.
"2.75/share when their largest shareholder has placed a "value" of 2.15/share?"
Totally sophomoric statement. Malone has a goal to obtain shares as cheaply as possible up until the time he has what he needs. Then he wants it to go as high as possible. Only a FOOL would make the statement you did. It shows a total lack of understanding of the Liberty Media dynamic
"so your convictions are weak, and what are you suggesting? Buy sell or hold? That is what makes a viable article, nobody cares wht you would do."
Can you not read? There is NOTHING in the authors statement that projects weak conviction. This is the stock market. An investor can like what a company does, and like the long term prospects, but not like the price an equity is currently trading at. By your naive rationale John Malone has weak convictions, as does Buffet, Cohen and others. In case you did not comprehend what the author wrote, he was saying that he is waiting for the right opportunity to buy into the equity. Certainly he will give updates when that time approaches. Meanwhile, readers have the benefit of knowing a thought process as it is happening.
"Now this statement is a classic. To whose benefit has this wonderful performance been for? Shareholders? nope. Mel? nope. YOU? nope since you do not have shares long or short. Liberty media? YEP, BINGO. They have been the only ones to have gained some value as they persue complete control for THEIR shareholders, not SIRI shareholders, as evidenced by the simple fact that they have single handedly kept a lid on the share price and when they do take over will have all of that positive momentum in their own balance sheet....too bad you cannot see this from your lofty perch."
Your response here is classic. Many investors that have been following this equity have seen reward by thinking forward a year or two ago. Somehow though, you discount all of that! Will Liberty benefit? Certainly. Have they "single handedly kept the share price down? Nope. Sirius XM on Liberty's balance sheet? The most likely situation is a Reverse Morris Trust. That puts it in shareholder hands
"what precisely are you waiting for? Cows to come home? Further price deterioration to look for a "pop"? A long term entry point? Your failure to elucidate could be one major reason you have no following here."
So you have the total roadmap to the markets that considers everything? PLEASE. There are many moving parts. Macro considerations, Micro considerations, the overall economy, jobs reports, consumer confidence, the Liberty media situation and many other things.
"You do a complete diservice to investors with an article like this when the writing is on the wall and is as plain as the nose on your face. When you realize this, you will evolve as an investor."
Your comments and drivel are the disservice here. You say the writing is on the wall......what exactly is that writing? Are you not now speaking in the generalities that you insult this author for doing? You need to take some time to reflect. When you do that you can grow as a person. Once you accomplish that you can think about being a better investor
Sirius XM Investors Eyeing Move By Liberty May Be Blindsided [View article]
Stephen....
First thank you for the kind words here.
Second, I am receiving a smattering of emails stating that you are accusing me of copying your article somewhere else on the net.
Third, until you linked to it here, and I got a few emails, I did not even see your article.
I have been covering Sirius XM for quite some time, and have covered the Liberty stake with several articles much prior to you taking up writing here at Seeking Alpha.
I have stated in articles and on a radio show several times the various courses of action Liberty could take, inclusive of having a deal in place that would get them the shares they needed to get to at least the 49.9% stake. In fact, a week and a half ago I mentioned the very concept of Liberty not having to file with the SEC on the radio and stated that I was planning on doing a piece on it. Perhaps I shared too much on the radio show and could turn course and accuse you of hijacking my ideas for articles, but that is unprofessional, and I do not believe that you did that.
The fact is that I wrote about the lack of a need for an SEC filing a week and a half ago and was surprised that no one was discussing this. That is exactly what I expressed on the radio show. My article has been in the works since then in one form or another. After a long weekend I polished it up and Seeking Alpha published it today. It is not a copy of your work, but rather an extension of my own.
I would like to think that there is a semblance of professionalism that exists in this community, but alas, wishful thinking gets us nowhere.
Did it ever occur to you that as events transpire that many people will cover the same subject? Will it surprise you to see several articles about auto sales in the next few days?
Do I arrive at the opinion that a lot of what you wrote in your piece could be sourced from work that I already published? No. Do I accuse you of copying my work? No.
It is sad to think that you are starting off your time at Seeking Alpha by being two-faced and throwing out untrue allegations on a site that has done more damage to the SIRI community than any other. Given where you associate, it should come as no surprise. Your mentor once accused me of "stealing" an article from him prior to him even publishing it. Of course that was nonsense, but it certainly served to get his "membership" in a tizzy. He then accused me of stealing the idea of a auto website from him. Only problem with that.....he registered his domain months after I registered mine. I had been talking about an auto website for a couple of years.
Belviq's Sales Will Disappoint: Demographics Matter [View article]
Smit....
I would not char active this piece as garbage. It takes a step beyond the investment strategy of the most vocal longs that say the company "will do great", "will be a blockbuster", "has a ton of potential", "has massive pent up demand", etc. all without ever quantifying any of these statements. The main reason these vocal advocates lack specificity is because they always want to have an "out". They do not want to be in a position of being critical of the company. Look at what happened with Europe. The vocal group was expecting approval to be a walk in the park, and many vocal advocates were saying that Europe would perhaps be more important than the U.S. because Qsymia was not approved there. These same people were very quick to now praise Arena management for pulling its application in order to avoid a rejection. It is amazing that people will find an excuse for anything in order to fit their perfect investment picture.
In your comment you state in bold that there are "TONS OF REASONS" to like an investment in Arena yet you do not list any of them that really matter, and the list you do supply has many holes.
1. Vivus went alone, but keeps ll of the money. Arena has a sales force in Eisai, but only gets 33% of the NET. If the drugs were priced the same, Arena needs to sell 3 times as much Belviq to garner a similar financial result.
2. Qsymia can not be scripted in a generic form because there is no generic Qsymia. The components of Qsymia can be, and in fact are scripted already. That does not make the generic solution equal. More pills doing it with the generic path, and the lack of time release to ease side effects and increase efficacy. In addition, there is less liability to a doctor when scripting an FDA approved drug being used on label.
3. Both drugs are dangerous. Neither drug is a solution for everyone. There is room for more than one drug in the market.
Certainly the more vocal longs do not represent everyone. I have stated time and time again that it is street expectations that need to be met or exceeded in order for price appreciation to happen. I outlined my figures for the first 3 months in terms that are good (40k), great (75k), and outstanding (over 100k). I have been attacked for lowballing. That is interesting that people will line up to attack my numbers but lack the courage to put their own on the table.
There is potential with Arena, and in my mind it is worth placing a bet on. However, you need to invest remembering that the street sets the expectations. This means pulling money off of the table at the right times, and betting again when the odds for investors improve.
I was slammed for saying that the DEA news would deliver a price of $8.50 and that would serve as the base. At the time I made that statement Europe was still in the pipeline. I do believe that $8.50 can still be the baseline, but that may be levered back to $8 depending on what transpires over the next few weeks.
Arena Short Interest As Launch Of Belviq Approaches [View article]
Longinus....
The current focus on Arena is all around the launch of Belviq. The pipeline will become more of a focus and more important over time, but there is a lot riding on Belviq.
I have covered the Europe process quite a few times already, and it will become a focus again in the coming weeks. According to the company a possible decision in Eurpoe is still months away.
This is not a soft bash. Just because I do not wave pom-poms in the air as it relates to an equity does not make things a soft bash or a bash. Investors should look at any equity with a critical eye. We hear and see the pom-pom waving from other sources and the company.
Satellite Radio 2.0 and On Demand = Some Sirius Price Appreciation Ahead [View article]
sirifair....
An important item to note about the royalty charge is the way they marketed it. It was a "pass-through", and appeared nowhere in the pricing of packages. Thus the $12.95 did not turn into $14.90. Sirius XM was able to sell the service and the consumer was given the royalty fee almost as an afterthought. Structuring it this way made it almost invisible to consumers (almost treated as if it were a tax).
This new increase will not have the benefit of being invisible. The company needs to move carefully. Things like people having Sirius and XM and not being able to get the family plan rate on the second receiver are things that consumers are frustrated with (myself included). Sirius XM needs to be careful, and needs to make any increase a perceived value to consumers.
The Arena Conspiracy And DEA Scheduling [View article]
Gaucho......
The markets carry aspects of manipulation. I think everyone knows this.....yet you never, never, never, never , never hear anyone complain when the stock is moving up on theoretical manipulation. Why is that?
People only cry foul when it benefits them. Thus they are just as guilty as those they accuse of manipulating
You say it is worthless. That is your opinion. There are a couple of comments above that saw value in the article.
You say you are certain that I am making a lot of money. I am certain you are quite wrong. Of course that depends on what one insiders a lot of money, but it the money is actually quite modest.
This article was new news, and is not about out or fear. The problem might be that you have simply preconditioned yourself with falsehoods and now can not see beyond that.
Vivus Gets Expected European Rejection [View article]
bwyatt....
You have an opinion, and that is quite fine.
1. What is it about Qsymia that makes you arrive at the conclusion that it is a flawed drug? Certainly we should get you at the FDA as soon as possible to address issues such as "flawed" drugs getting approval.
2. You feel that the Vivus prospects in Europe may be non-existent. By what reasoning? The company is appealing the decision and will work within parameters to try to gain approval. There was a point in time when you could not buy Red Bull in Europe. The company kept going to bat, and sales were approved.
3. Qsymia to complete oblivion??? Based on what? Having different drugs on the market is a good thing. Qsymnia will not work for everyone, nor will Belviq. Did the creation of Zoloft send Prozac into oblivion? No....Because some people react better to one drug than another.
Look, I get the passion people have for one company or the other. It needs to be grounded in reality though. The Ford vs Chevy or Coke vs. Pepsi debate is all well and good, but in the end the reality is Ford and Chevy both make good trucks and Coke and Pepsi both make good cola.
I am long ARNA, but that does not mean that I can not appreciate the strides and products Vivus has.
Arena Falls, Pulls Anti-Obesity Application In Europe [View article]
Sparx.
1. A blockbuster is a drug that is doing $1 billion annually. The class of drugs that obtain that level is no easy to get into. It could get there, but more likely than not it will take a lot longer than most rose colored glasses wearing retail longs think.
2. The baked in price of approval was likely about 50 cents to a dollar above what was the current trading level. The fact that we saw the equity drop like it did tells you that there was already the anticipation of approval in the price.
3. I do not know when the DEA will finalize scheduling. That is the exact point about the "will be" investors
4. AACE opinions are great. They are just that though....opinions. Just because AACE says something does not mean they are accurate in their opinion. Look at the varied opinions of autism organizations. They differ, yet they all claim to want to find a cure. Belviq, Qsymia, and Contrave are potential solutions, but none of them will be the best solution. Things always get improved upon
5. There will be any number of companies that can come along to be the sector winner. I am not foolish enough to pretend that Belviq will be the winner for the next decade. It could, but odds are against that. I am long ARNA because I am invested to make money. ARNA presented that opportunity, and I see enough potential to warrant me keeping the shares I have. I did sell half of my position a while back at $10.50 for a 40% gain. I took that money and invested into another company that has since doubled. I like that play, but am comfortable in the reasons I kept half of my ARNA. My secret is that I refuse to fall in love with a company. It is not worth it because not a single company out there cares about whether or not I make money.
6. Vivus is trading at $13 because that is the going price for a share of vivus. The company has a market cap of just $1.3 billion. That is not anything huge by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, arena has enjoyed a market cp higher than vivus for quite some time. In my opinion vivus has a decent valuation here. Going higher is possible, as us another dip.
7. How on earth could I have any impact on the share price of arena. I don't. What will hold back arena from $30? The fact that there is NOTHING at this point tat even comes close to justifying a $30 price. Do you really think that arena is worth $10 billion at this point?
8. Perhaps you should talk to your wife a bit more. Certainly arena can be bought out, but it will not happen at $30. Your wife will explain that to you. Arena can have its day, but $30 is well off into the future. Remember, the biggest benefactor of U.S. sales is Eisai, not Arena.
Arena Faces A Convergence Of DEA And European Decisions [View article]
My god!
This side effect debate is nothing more than fodder for message boards.
BOTH drugs have very undesirable side effects.
NEITHER drug is a catch all solution for everyone.
If people were that concerned with side effects they would avoid most prescription drugs like the plague.. Both drugs have side effects lists longer than your arm!
The key for patients is finding what that patient can best tolerate and the weight of the benefits vs. the side effects.
The Arena Conspiracy And DEA Scheduling [View article]
Day trader.....
There are some things you probably do not see.
I get a ton of emails from people actually requesting that I join the campaign to every agency imaginable. Perhaps it is just a handful of people using various email addresses, but the communications differ enough to at least make it appear that these are "concerned" investors.
My opinion is that these people are being duped7 ways to Sunday.
They were first duped when they were told arena would be the storied stock of 2012 and that the drug and/or buyouts would send this to $50. They became convinced that anything less than a continues move upward meant that they were on the wrong side of manipulation.
They were duped again into "fighting" the manipulation that does not really exist.
Will Arena's Third Trip Above $9 Be The Charm? [View article]
What Personalized Radio Will Mean To Sirius XM [View article]
Forgive me for being very blunt here.
The use of the term Pandorka is sophomoric, childish, and takes away from any point you try to make. It demonstrates the "nanny nanny boo boo" or "my dad can beat up your dad" behavior and mentality.
Comparing SIRI to these is not pointless from a consumer standpoint. Whether or not Panora makes or loses money is not the relevant iusse. I do not care if they make or lose money, as I am not invested in Pandora. Pandora does however have a substantial following (66 million active users) and that means that people are listening to Sirius XM less because of it. To ignore that is folley. Sirius XM certainly understands the need to create a better IP platform (even it is does not generate revenue). You would be well served to grasp that notion.
Vivus Gets Expected European Rejection [View article]
There are many drugs that get used for purposes that are not intended. That language is pretty boilerplate.
Bellviq is intended for use in obese patients with set conditions, one of which happens to be type 2 diabetes.
"The drug is approved for use in adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or greater (obese), or adults with a BMI of 27 or greater (overweight) and who have at least one weight-related condition such as high blood pressure (hypertension), type 2 diabetes, or high cholesterol (dyslipidemia)"
Are you aware of what diabetes is and the statistics surrounding it?
. http://ti.me/UexrOp
http://bit.ly/T2X8Lo
More likely than not someone with type 2 diabetes is also obese. A treatment that can help obesity while at the same time get Type 2 diabetes under control is a good thing.
It seems as if you are so desperate to find something bad in things that you do not conduct any realistic research and jump to conclusions. I suspect that you are a regular on message boards that carry on with mindless banter about one vs. the other.
It was just a couple of weeks ago that you were on a rampage that the DEA would "have to give Belviq schedule 2 and that all 2C drugs must be schedule 2" Upon myself and others pointing out a few things to you, you have backed off of that message board rant and now are at schedule 3.
I do not see doom for EU approval. I see the company of having a decent shot at getting it.
I realize that you want, hope, and desire for Belviq to fail, but YOUR wants, hopes, and desires, do not dictate the FDA, the DEA, or the EU.
Sirius XM: Still Not Time To Get Back In [View article]
"why would anyone even think of buying shares of this stock?"
Why do people buy or sell any stock? Because they feel there is a potential to make money. Some do not care about fundementals and some do not care about technicals, but most care about making money. A stock such as SIRI, which is heavily traded provides a marketplace to make money.
"This is an article that typifies useless technical babble and nobody really cares what YOUR price target is."
This comment serves what purpose exactly? It is GROSSLY inaccurate as there are many who use technical analysis as part of their overall strategy. The GREATEST minds in the markets use technical information. You may not care about what the authors price target is, but many likely do. It is a valuable piece of information that helps delve into why the author has the opinion he does. YOUR opinion on this matter may well be considered drivel by some.
"2.75/share when their largest shareholder has placed a "value" of 2.15/share?"
Totally sophomoric statement. Malone has a goal to obtain shares as cheaply as possible up until the time he has what he needs. Then he wants it to go as high as possible. Only a FOOL would make the statement you did. It shows a total lack of understanding of the Liberty Media dynamic
"so your convictions are weak, and what are you suggesting? Buy sell or hold? That is what makes a viable article, nobody cares wht you would do."
Can you not read? There is NOTHING in the authors statement that projects weak conviction. This is the stock market. An investor can like what a company does, and like the long term prospects, but not like the price an equity is currently trading at. By your naive rationale John Malone has weak convictions, as does Buffet, Cohen and others. In case you did not comprehend what the author wrote, he was saying that he is waiting for the right opportunity to buy into the equity. Certainly he will give updates when that time approaches. Meanwhile, readers have the benefit of knowing a thought process as it is happening.
"Now this statement is a classic. To whose benefit has this wonderful performance been for? Shareholders? nope. Mel? nope. YOU? nope since you do not have shares long or short. Liberty media? YEP, BINGO. They have been the only ones to have gained some value as they persue complete control for THEIR shareholders, not SIRI shareholders, as evidenced by the simple fact that they have single handedly kept a lid on the share price and when they do take over will have all of that positive momentum in their own balance sheet....too bad you cannot see this from your lofty perch."
Your response here is classic. Many investors that have been following this equity have seen reward by thinking forward a year or two ago. Somehow though, you discount all of that! Will Liberty benefit? Certainly. Have they "single handedly kept the share price down? Nope. Sirius XM on Liberty's balance sheet? The most likely situation is a Reverse Morris Trust. That puts it in shareholder hands
"what precisely are you waiting for? Cows to come home? Further price deterioration to look for a "pop"? A long term entry point? Your failure to elucidate could be one major reason you have no following here."
So you have the total roadmap to the markets that considers everything? PLEASE. There are many moving parts. Macro considerations, Micro considerations, the overall economy, jobs reports, consumer confidence, the Liberty media situation and many other things.
"You do a complete diservice to investors with an article like this when the writing is on the wall and is as plain as the nose on your face. When you realize this, you will evolve as an investor."
Your comments and drivel are the disservice here. You say the writing is on the wall......what exactly is that writing? Are you not now speaking in the generalities that you insult this author for doing? You need to take some time to reflect. When you do that you can grow as a person. Once you accomplish that you can think about being a better investor
Sirius XM Investors Eyeing Move By Liberty May Be Blindsided [View article]
First thank you for the kind words here.
Second, I am receiving a smattering of emails stating that you are accusing me of copying your article somewhere else on the net.
Third, until you linked to it here, and I got a few emails, I did not even see your article.
I have been covering Sirius XM for quite some time, and have covered the Liberty stake with several articles much prior to you taking up writing here at Seeking Alpha.
I have stated in articles and on a radio show several times the various courses of action Liberty could take, inclusive of having a deal in place that would get them the shares they needed to get to at least the 49.9% stake. In fact, a week and a half ago I mentioned the very concept of Liberty not having to file with the SEC on the radio and stated that I was planning on doing a piece on it. Perhaps I shared too much on the radio show and could turn course and accuse you of hijacking my ideas for articles, but that is unprofessional, and I do not believe that you did that.
The fact is that I wrote about the lack of a need for an SEC filing a week and a half ago and was surprised that no one was discussing this. That is exactly what I expressed on the radio show. My article has been in the works since then in one form or another. After a long weekend I polished it up and Seeking Alpha published it today. It is not a copy of your work, but rather an extension of my own.
I would like to think that there is a semblance of professionalism that exists in this community, but alas, wishful thinking gets us nowhere.
Did it ever occur to you that as events transpire that many people will cover the same subject? Will it surprise you to see several articles about auto sales in the next few days?
Do I arrive at the opinion that a lot of what you wrote in your piece could be sourced from work that I already published? No. Do I accuse you of copying my work? No.
It is sad to think that you are starting off your time at Seeking Alpha by being two-faced and throwing out untrue allegations on a site that has done more damage to the SIRI community than any other. Given where you associate, it should come as no surprise. Your mentor once accused me of "stealing" an article from him prior to him even publishing it. Of course that was nonsense, but it certainly served to get his "membership" in a tizzy. He then accused me of stealing the idea of a auto website from him. Only problem with that.....he registered his domain months after I registered mine. I had been talking about an auto website for a couple of years.
Very sad. Very sad indeed
Belviq's Sales Will Disappoint: Demographics Matter [View article]
I would not char active this piece as garbage. It takes a step beyond the investment strategy of the most vocal longs that say the company "will do great", "will be a blockbuster", "has a ton of potential", "has massive pent up demand", etc. all without ever quantifying any of these statements. The main reason these vocal advocates lack specificity is because they always want to have an "out". They do not want to be in a position of being critical of the company. Look at what happened with Europe. The vocal group was expecting approval to be a walk in the park, and many vocal advocates were saying that Europe would perhaps be more important than the U.S. because Qsymia was not approved there. These same people were very quick to now praise Arena management for pulling its application in order to avoid a rejection. It is amazing that people will find an excuse for anything in order to fit their perfect investment picture.
In your comment you state in bold that there are "TONS OF REASONS" to like an investment in Arena yet you do not list any of them that really matter, and the list you do supply has many holes.
1. Vivus went alone, but keeps ll of the money. Arena has a sales force in Eisai, but only gets 33% of the NET. If the drugs were priced the same, Arena needs to sell 3 times as much Belviq to garner a similar financial result.
2. Qsymia can not be scripted in a generic form because there is no generic Qsymia. The components of Qsymia can be, and in fact are scripted already. That does not make the generic solution equal. More pills doing it with the generic path, and the lack of time release to ease side effects and increase efficacy. In addition, there is less liability to a doctor when scripting an FDA approved drug being used on label.
3. Both drugs are dangerous. Neither drug is a solution for everyone. There is room for more than one drug in the market.
Certainly the more vocal longs do not represent everyone. I have stated time and time again that it is street expectations that need to be met or exceeded in order for price appreciation to happen. I outlined my figures for the first 3 months in terms that are good (40k), great (75k), and outstanding (over 100k). I have been attacked for lowballing. That is interesting that people will line up to attack my numbers but lack the courage to put their own on the table.
There is potential with Arena, and in my mind it is worth placing a bet on. However, you need to invest remembering that the street sets the expectations. This means pulling money off of the table at the right times, and betting again when the odds for investors improve.
I was slammed for saying that the DEA news would deliver a price of $8.50 and that would serve as the base. At the time I made that statement Europe was still in the pipeline. I do believe that $8.50 can still be the baseline, but that may be levered back to $8 depending on what transpires over the next few weeks.
Arena Short Interest As Launch Of Belviq Approaches [View article]
The current focus on Arena is all around the launch of Belviq. The pipeline will become more of a focus and more important over time, but there is a lot riding on Belviq.
I have covered the Europe process quite a few times already, and it will become a focus again in the coming weeks. According to the company a possible decision in Eurpoe is still months away.
This is not a soft bash. Just because I do not wave pom-poms in the air as it relates to an equity does not make things a soft bash or a bash. Investors should look at any equity with a critical eye. We hear and see the pom-pom waving from other sources and the company.
Thanks for the comment
Should Investors Worry About Arena's Short Interest? [View article]
I am not sure where your angst and ire come from
1. I am not advising that anyone short the equity. This article was simply about the short position that currently exists.
2. I am not concerned bout the 6.5 days to cover in either a positive or negative way. In fact, I state asmuch in the article. Please read again.
3. I have stated that the next catalyst is DEA scheduling. In my opinion that announcement can send the stock toward $11
I think overall you missed the entire point of the article
Satellite Radio 2.0 and On Demand = Some Sirius Price Appreciation Ahead [View article]
An important item to note about the royalty charge is the way they marketed it. It was a "pass-through", and appeared nowhere in the pricing of packages. Thus the $12.95 did not turn into $14.90. Sirius XM was able to sell the service and the consumer was given the royalty fee almost as an afterthought. Structuring it this way made it almost invisible to consumers (almost treated as if it were a tax).
This new increase will not have the benefit of being invisible. The company needs to move carefully. Things like people having Sirius and XM and not being able to get the family plan rate on the second receiver are things that consumers are frustrated with (myself included). Sirius XM needs to be careful, and needs to make any increase a perceived value to consumers.
The Arena Conspiracy And DEA Scheduling [View article]
The markets carry aspects of manipulation. I think everyone knows this.....yet you never, never, never, never , never hear anyone complain when the stock is moving up on theoretical manipulation. Why is that?
People only cry foul when it benefits them. Thus they are just as guilty as those they accuse of manipulating
Arena Insider Sells Shares - Worry? [View article]
You say it is worthless. That is your opinion. There are a couple of comments above that saw value in the article.
You say you are certain that I am making a lot of money. I am certain you are quite wrong. Of course that depends on what one insiders a lot of money, but it the money is actually quite modest.
This article was new news, and is not about out or fear. The problem might be that you have simply preconditioned yourself with falsehoods and now can not see beyond that.
Vivus Gets Expected European Rejection [View article]
You have an opinion, and that is quite fine.
1. What is it about Qsymia that makes you arrive at the conclusion that it is a flawed drug? Certainly we should get you at the FDA as soon as possible to address issues such as "flawed" drugs getting approval.
2. You feel that the Vivus prospects in Europe may be non-existent. By what reasoning? The company is appealing the decision and will work within parameters to try to gain approval. There was a point in time when you could not buy Red Bull in Europe. The company kept going to bat, and sales were approved.
3. Qsymia to complete oblivion??? Based on what? Having different drugs on the market is a good thing. Qsymnia will not work for everyone, nor will Belviq. Did the creation of Zoloft send Prozac into oblivion? No....Because some people react better to one drug than another.
Look, I get the passion people have for one company or the other. It needs to be grounded in reality though. The Ford vs Chevy or Coke vs. Pepsi debate is all well and good, but in the end the reality is Ford and Chevy both make good trucks and Coke and Pepsi both make good cola.
I am long ARNA, but that does not mean that I can not appreciate the strides and products Vivus has.
Arena Falls, Pulls Anti-Obesity Application In Europe [View article]
1. A blockbuster is a drug that is doing $1 billion annually. The class of drugs that obtain that level is no easy to get into. It could get there, but more likely than not it will take a lot longer than most rose colored glasses wearing retail longs think.
2. The baked in price of approval was likely about 50 cents to a dollar above what was the current trading level. The fact that we saw the equity drop like it did tells you that there was already the anticipation of approval in the price.
3. I do not know when the DEA will finalize scheduling. That is the exact point about the "will be" investors
4. AACE opinions are great. They are just that though....opinions. Just because AACE says something does not mean they are accurate in their opinion. Look at the varied opinions of autism organizations. They differ, yet they all claim to want to find a cure. Belviq, Qsymia, and Contrave are potential solutions, but none of them will be the best solution. Things always get improved upon
5. There will be any number of companies that can come along to be the sector winner. I am not foolish enough to pretend that Belviq will be the winner for the next decade. It could, but odds are against that. I am long ARNA because I am invested to make money. ARNA presented that opportunity, and I see enough potential to warrant me keeping the shares I have. I did sell half of my position a while back at $10.50 for a 40% gain. I took that money and invested into another company that has since doubled. I like that play, but am comfortable in the reasons I kept half of my ARNA. My secret is that I refuse to fall in love with a company. It is not worth it because not a single company out there cares about whether or not I make money.
6. Vivus is trading at $13 because that is the going price for a share of vivus. The company has a market cap of just $1.3 billion. That is not anything huge by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, arena has enjoyed a market cp higher than vivus for quite some time. In my opinion vivus has a decent valuation here. Going higher is possible, as us another dip.
7. How on earth could I have any impact on the share price of arena. I don't. What will hold back arena from $30? The fact that there is NOTHING at this point tat even comes close to justifying a $30 price. Do you really think that arena is worth $10 billion at this point?
8. Perhaps you should talk to your wife a bit more. Certainly arena can be bought out, but it will not happen at $30. Your wife will explain that to you. Arena can have its day, but $30 is well off into the future. Remember, the biggest benefactor of U.S. sales is Eisai, not Arena.
Arena Faces A Convergence Of DEA And European Decisions [View article]
This side effect debate is nothing more than fodder for message boards.
BOTH drugs have very undesirable side effects.
NEITHER drug is a catch all solution for everyone.
If people were that concerned with side effects they would avoid most prescription drugs like the plague.. Both drugs have side effects lists longer than your arm!
The key for patients is finding what that patient can best tolerate and the weight of the benefits vs. the side effects.
The Arena Conspiracy And DEA Scheduling [View article]
There are some things you probably do not see.
I get a ton of emails from people actually requesting that I join the campaign to every agency imaginable. Perhaps it is just a handful of people using various email addresses, but the communications differ enough to at least make it appear that these are "concerned" investors.
My opinion is that these people are being duped7 ways to Sunday.
They were first duped when they were told arena would be the storied stock of 2012 and that the drug and/or buyouts would send this to $50. They became convinced that anything less than a continues move upward meant that they were on the wrong side of manipulation.
They were duped again into "fighting" the manipulation that does not really exist.