Seeking Alpha

Spencer Osborne's  Instablog

Spencer Osborne
Send Message
Spencer Osborne is founder of Satellite Standard Group [SSG], and a partner of Sirius Buzz ( Sirius Buzz covers the satellite radio industry as well as companies that do business in this sector. Sirius Buzz provides information and opinion to readers with an interest in... More
My company:
SiriusBuzz Premium
My blog:
View Spencer Osborne's Instablogs on:
  • Yossi The Cowardly Liar Still At It

    Yossi, a poster from a board called Investors Village is once again demonstrating why he is a coward, and why he is a liar. Here is one of his latest:

    Could you mention just ONE name that

    1. Bought OREX for $6.90 (and it went down to $3.50 in just few months).

    2. This genius is also long ETRM!

    ETRM went down 82.32% during 2015.

    3. AND, last time he traded ARNA he LOST money!

    He sold ARNA and bought back for higher price.

    Why Yossi is a coward:

    Yossi loves to spin things, and refuses to place context around what he says. This is the mark of someone to afraid to post the truth. It is a cowardly move, and one designed to spin things in another direction from reality.

    Context of Orex trade:

    I bought Orexigen at $6.90 (a very small and insignificant investment) to play the European approval and a possible partnership announcement. I was CRYSTAL CLEAR in the reasoning for they purchase. The European approval did happen. The stock spiked as high as about $8.00 on approval. When a couple of weeks went buy without an announcement on a partner, I began to publicly express that I may trim my position. In the interim, the news regarding the Light study and the rift with Takeda came out. The stock went down. At that point I had a decision to make. I could simply sell out at break even, or let it ride to see how things played out. Given that the amount invested was minimal, and given that I had the balance of the year before figuring out if I wanted or needed a tax loss to offset gains, I held. At least half of my investment thesis was correct. I was indeed in a profitable position when the Light study data was released. Yossi is to cowardly to apply the true context of that trade.

    Context of the ETRM Trade

    I bought ETRM to play the FDA approval. Again, my thesis was made CRYSTAL CLEAR to everyone. My investment, again, was a modest play. Indeed, ETRM gained approval. The problem I had was that I was in meetings on the day of the approval, and missed a p[op that would have nearly been a double for me. By the time I got out of my meetings, the pop was gone. I had a decision to make, and given that the investment was not significant, decided to wait it out and see what happened. I have no rush to sell the stock, and simply held it to see if something plays out. My strategy is to assess my taxes as 2015 plays out and see what strategy will work best from there. Yossi, is a coward, because he refuses to put the trade in context. The thesis was sound, and had I not been in meetings, I would have had a 100% gain. I have ALWAYS considered ETRM HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, and still do.

    Yossi is a LIAR on my Arena trade. He states that my last trade in Arena was at a loss. This is a PURE LIE. My last trade in Arena was in early March for a profit. My cost basis in Arena is $3.95. I sold about half of my position in March at $4.51. This trade was made CRYSTAL CLEAR to all readers.

    The bottom liner is that Yossi is both a coward and a liar. He has no interest in truth or context. His interest is in spinning things, with the use of lies to help, in order to move his agenda.

    Tags: ARNA
    Aug 17 9:33 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Belviq To Pass 1,000,000 Script Mark With This Week's Data

    Unless there is a total derailment in scripts for Belviq, the drug will pass the 1,000,000 script mark (in the United States) with the data covering sales between August 1st and August 8th. The actual passing of 1,000,000 likely happened on August 5th or 6th.

    From launch through July 31st of 2014, script sales were at 993,190. Thus, going into August, the drug needed just under 7,000 scripts to reach 1,000,000 in sales. If we were to consider South Korea, the milestone was passed several weeks ago.

    Getting to 1,000,000 scripts took 113 weeks (2 years-2 months-one week). The average scripts per week is about 8,850.

    Tags: ARNA
    Aug 12 12:35 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Will The Treat And Reduce Obesity Act Help Vivus, Arena, And Orexigen

    I have seen this happen many times. Management of a company puts forth a carrot and investors, many who are looking for hope, grab that carrot and think that all will be right when this, that, or the other thing happens.

    In 2013 there was a bill to treat and reduce obesity. Investors in the sector saw this as an way to virtually guarantee success within the space. Many, because of their investment, jumped in with both feet in supporting this legislation. Ultimately, that bill was referred to committee, and there it has remained.

    Investors then found new hope with the Treat and Reduce Obesity Act of 2015. Like the first bill, it has been referred to committee, and like the first bill this is likely where it will remain.

    My stance on this bill is simple. It is feel good legislation that puts the government more inside the actions of people than the government should be. Are we as a people so used to ignoring our personal responsibilities that we must rely on Uncle Sam to tell us what we should be doing? My stance is no. We should not. The bill does very little to address, really address, the core issues surrounding obesity, and instead proposes that the government pay for pills.

    The bill speaks to the statistics of obesity, but falls well short of identifying why this is happening. Correcting the core issues is a solution. Scripting a pill, in many cases, will be simply a band-aid. Think of it this way. If a person has headaches every day, aspirin can help alleviate the pain. However, aspirin does not look to the core issues. What if the core issue is that the person needs eyeglasses?

    The Treat and Reduce Obesity Act is not really addressing core issues, but rather taking the stance that pills are the solution.

    I see many passionate investors in this space cling onto the act as if it will deliver something compelling to these stocks. My stance has always been simple. Why should I place any faith in legislation that will likely never see the light of day? If you research the issue, you will quickly see that this legislation will simply live out its existence in committee.

    GovTracks is a website dedicated to following legislation. According to GovTracks, this bill has a 4% chance of getting through the committee, and only a 2% chance of getting enacted. The odds are stacked against this from the beginning. Why invest on the hope that a long-shot event will happen?

    Investors grab the proverbial bait all of the time. A carrot such as this is a double edged sword. It is an opportunity for management of a company to give investors hope, and it is also an excuse as to why things may not be going well. All the while, the odds of passage were slim and the carrot should have never been put in front of investors in the first place.

    Tags: ARNA, OREX, VVUS
    Aug 12 12:18 PM | Link | 1 Comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.