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Spencer Osborne
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Spencer Osborne is founder of Satellite Standard Group [SSG], and a partner of Sirius Buzz (http://siriusbuzz.com/). Sirius Buzz covers the satellite radio industry as well as companies that do business in this sector. Sirius Buzz provides information and opinion to readers with an interest in... More
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  • Dear Coward Yossi

    Dear Coward Yossi,

    I understand that people fear many things. That is perfeectly human. You however lie, misrepresent, and simply act like the cowardly scurge of the earth.

    Here is what you (a now verified cowardly LOSER wrote:

    Dear Carl,

    Spencer makes sense regarding OREX? Regarding ARNA? Regarding both? Regarding VVUS?

    Spencer makes sense when he buys? When he sells? When he Trims?

    Spencer makes sense when he buy, then sell, then buy again, then trim, then threats to trim again?

    Spencer makes sense when he sells cheap and then buy when pps is higher?

    Carl, first you need to promote strongly and then you'll know if you'll make enough money.

    First you need to fund another BelPhen, BelSmoke, and BelMet studies and then you'll know if you'll make enough money.

    Eisai knows they've made mistakes, and they have enough money to make the right things now.

    Takeda is making enough money to promote Contrave strongly?

    Carl, are you impressed because he wrote:

    "Simply stated, I have more orex than I intend to hold"?

    Are you impressed because he wrote:

    "Investors need to understand revenue dynamics"?

    Are you impressed because he wrote:

    "the health issues associated with obesity do not have a season, but the reality is that weight loss products have a season"?

    Wow, something you didn't know Carl?

    He could really see deep into the future IYO?

    My buys and sells are well documented, and they have been explained to you in DETAIL in an email exchange with you. Despite your knowledge that every one of my trades made perfect financial sense, you insinuate something different. You are a COWARD of the highest order for doing that. Your COWARDICE brings shame upon your parents, as well as your entire family. If they knew the lengths ypu went to to lie and cast false assertions, your own family would flog you. GROW UP.

    My Orex position. I invested more than I intend to hold to play the EU approval and European partner. Again, I made this crystal clear, but your lowlife lies and spins try to paint a different picture.

    Yossi.....you are indeed a COWARD

    Tags: ARNA
    Mar 28 7:55 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Belviq SaMples

    This seems to be the topic Du Jour this weekend. If you look at the financials you will see what was spent on samples. you can also see inventory levels at Arena and inventory levels at Eisai. The sample program is the latest excuse that over passionate investors like to use for a reason that sales are not pacing to expectations.

    before getting into numbers, think about this for a moment. What are the samples for? How do samples work?

    When you go to Costco or Sam's club and walk down the aisle, you see people handing out samples. you also see people taking those samples. Do you think that everyone that tries the sample of Totino's Pizza Rolls goes running down to the frozen food aisle to grab a bag? No. Likely only about 5% of those that try the samples buy the product.

    In October of Q4 of 2014 Eisai paid $500,000 for samples. Eisai pays Arena their cost on these. How much do you think a bottle of Belviq costs? $1? $10? $15? $20? If you take some time to go through financials of quarters past, you can arrive at a decent estimation. The number is likely between $13 per bottle and $18 per bottle. My calculations have arrived at $13 to $18 per bottle depending on the quarter and the assumptions made. To keep it simple, let's use $15.00 per bottle.

    $500,000 divided by $15.00 = 33,333 samples. In the past I have been very generous and stated that sample could be 40k to 50k when speaking to those that think 10,000 sample a week were happening despite the fact that the math does not really add up.

    The reality is that most of the samples do not "take away scripts". Most of the samples are given to those that may not be likely to convert to the drug anyway.

    If you read this and INSIST that samples are leaching away scripts, what will you say when the Q1 report comes out and the math demonstrates AGAIN that the sample program is simply not that large.

    You are better off ceasing from providing excuses and facing the reality of looking at revenue. The only reason scripts matter is to assess revenue.

    Tags: ARNA
    Mar 28 7:13 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Obesity Market - Market Share

    Looking at the sales trajectory of 2015 between Belviq, Contrave, and Qsymia we now have seen a shift of when Contrave may pass Belviq. With the March 13th sales numbers that day was May of 2016. Now, with the March 20th sales numbers, the pass happens in December of 2015.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: ARNA, OREX
    Mar 27 3:58 PM | Link | Comment!
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