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Spencer Osborne
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Spencer Osborne is founder of Satellite Standard Group [SSG], and a partner of Sirius Buzz (http://siriusbuzz.com/). Sirius Buzz covers the satellite radio industry as well as companies that do business in this sector. Sirius Buzz provides information and opinion to readers with an interest in... More
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  • Some Stuff

    When someone writes about equities, there will always be groups of people that disagree with what is written. Those that are long an equity will celebrate anyone that pumps up the stock, tells wonderful stories, or presents the positive story. If a writer has the nerve to offer critical analysis, he or she will never be "loved" by the longs in the crowd.

    What happens to a writer that dares to be real and objective? What happens to a writer that presents the good and the bad? They get attacked, and sometimes in ruthless fashion. Most attacks can simply be dismissed. There is a moron out there that runs around saying that I have a "mail-order wife" despite the fact that my wife was born in the United States, and her family has been in this country for GENERATIONS. That person is likely seen as a moron by any reader, but these things still happen.

    Others criticize in any way they can. They call me a moron, they say I am stupid, they say I am a basher, a pumper, or something else. These types of attacks are not kind, but are not really illegal either. They come with the territory. Often times, the more attacks there are, the more it points to the correctness of what I am writing. These attacks are typically conducted by anonymous message board posters and really pose no major issue.

    Then we have those that enter the category of Slander, libel, and deliberate character assassination. These people are not always anonymous. They prop themselves up over time, they lay out a resume of what they are and who they are. They identify themselves as DOCTORS, LAWYERS, BANKERS, etc.

    One Investors Village message board poster seems hell bent on insinuating that I am "Chaz". I am not. He/she seems to feel that I have a relationship with "Chaz". I do not. He/she seems to think that I somehow am involved in whatever "Chaz" is posting. I do not. It appears that this person seems to feel that if I am not "Chaz", that I am someone else on the message board.

    Let me make this perfectly clear. Further, think for a moment the risks I would be taking if what I am about to say is in any way untruthful. I would be a fool to post what I am about to post if it were not true:

    1. I do not post on any message boards.

    2. I do not direct anyone to post on any message boards.

    3. I do not give anyone information to post on message boards.

    4. I do not know who "Chaz" is and to the best of my knowledge, have never had dialogue with "Chaz". I say to the best of my knowledge because I have no idea if "Chaz" has ever commented on any of my articles under some other name.

    5. If I were to post on the Internet, or anywhere regarding equities that I cover, I would do so under my own name it make it crystal clear who I am.

    6. I believe that it is unethical for a writer to participate in message board postings. I believe it is even more unethical of a writer were to do so under a name that is different from the name they use when writing.

    Over the years, I have found that there exists a group of people that "bought the hype" and invested into an equity. As time passed, and the company did not live up to the hype, these people will live in denial and try to find anyone or anything else to blame. Hedge funds, competition, government red tape, the shorts, the options markets, and yes, even writers that cover the sector. Many of the entities that blame is cast upon are things that can not really be quantified or identified. Writers typically see the brunt because they have a name and thus are "easy targets".

    I really have no problem with criticism. Particularly if it is fair. I have no problem with someone disagreeing with me. I have no problem with spirited discussion and debate. I do take exception to those that will engage in slanderous and libelous behavior.

    It is kind of funny. Some will say i am biased because I own stock in a company. Others, at the same time will say that I do not really own shares, or only own a few shares so that I can "say I am long". Still others will say that I am bashing while I will simultaneously be accused of pumping. It is actually pretty amazing.

    In closing, people will say what they are going to say, and do what they are going to do. Some people will exist at a higher level of intellect and keep things where they should. the rest are just scum, and will usually be addressed in a manner that they have the best shot at comprehending.

    Cheers

    Tags: ARNA, VVUS, OREX
    May 10 5:57 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Belviq Adverse Events Q3 Of 2014

    The FDA has published the Q3 of 2014 data for adverse events relating to Belviq. There were 301 reports during the quarter on about 144,000 scripts written. Adverse event data typically runs about 6 months behind.

    The highest level of events for 1 person was 11. The average person had 2.1 adverse reactions. There were 156 different types of reactions reported. the most common reactions were:

    • 57 Reports of Fatigue
    • 54 Reports of Dizziness
    • 45 Reports of Headache
    • 36 Reports of the Drug Being Ineffective
    • 21 Reports of Nausea
    • 17 Reports of Weight Increasing
    • 13 Reports of Dry Mouth
    • 11 Reports of Constipation
    • 11 Reports of Somnolence
    • 10 Reports of Irritability
    • 10 Reports of Chills
    • 10 Reports of Back Pain

    In Q2 of 2014 there were 170 Adverse Events reported. Competitor Qsymia had 241 adverse events reported. Contrave data is not yet available.

    Tags: ARNA
    Apr 21 8:18 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Side Effects And Efficacy Of New Weight Loss Drugs

    This topic often arises when trying to discuss any of the drugs in this sector. Depending on what company an investor is in, often determines what spin will be applied. Arena investors love to tout safety. Vivus investors love to tout efficacy. Contrave investors love to tout that they are in the sweet spot between Belviq and Vivus. Meanwhile, Novo Investors are simply a pretty quite bunch invested in a massive big pharma company and not very worried about the debates such as this.

    That being said, I have taken the time to list all side effects over 2% according to the FDA label on Belviq, Contrave, Qsymia Low Dose, Qsymia Mid Dose, Qsymia High Dose, and Saxenda. I took the ratio of a side effect vs. the placebo to arrive at a number. That number was then assigned a rank from 1 to 6 with 1 being the best and 6 the worst. There were safety advantages and disadvantages to each drug.

    (click to enlarge) Chart Source - Spencer Osborne

    The result of this analysis of "safety" is that Belviq was the safest, followed by Contrave, Saxenda, Qsymia Low Dose, Qsymia Mid Dose, and lastly Qsymia High Dose. Be aware, this is simply an anecdotal assessment based on reported side effects included in the FDA label. There are various other safety concerns with each drug.

    Shifting to efficacy, we have yet another anecdotal look at the FDA results. Again, I used the ratio method of results vs. placebo. In looking at things in this manner, Qsymia is the most effective, while Saxenda in regular patients is the least effective. If you look at the data, you can see why Novo Nordisk is focusing on people that are overweight and have type 2 diabetes. Saxenda ranks quite high in that area, and is in fact the best in that category.

    (click to enlarge)

    Chart Source - Spencer Osborne

    Investors can debate these things until the cows come home, but remember this. You are in a stock. The goal is to see the stock do well. One of these drugs is likely to help someone. Each drug has its selling points and its pitfalls.

    Tags: ARNA, VVUS, OREX, NVO
    Apr 13 2:51 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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