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Squeeky Wheel  

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  • Odd-Lot Outlet [View instapost]
    I recommend you find a cheaper broker.
    May 11, 2015. 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear, Greed, And Market Tops [View article]
    Very nice work. I got the impression that CNN creates a 1-100 for each component and then averages them.
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lennar's Rally Could Come To An End [View article]
    Real wage growth has been stagnant for a long time. Nominal wage growth has been pitiful for 7 years. I had think wage growth is going to get any worse in the next few months. So whatever effect wages have, is already in the 2014 numbers.
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia to buy Alcatel-Lucent for $16.6B [View news story]
    If Nokia-pre is 30bn + Alu-pre 12bn = Nok-Alu market value of 42bn.
    If Nok-Alu has 5.1bn shares, then Nok-Alu is $8.24 per share, and Alu-pre is $4.32 per share.

    If Alu-pre is 16Bn then Nok-Alu is 46bn. Nok-Alu would be $9 and Alu-pre is $4.95 per share.

    So the question is how much is Nok-Alu worth?
    It's interesting that Nok will keep it's cash pile this way. Which means more mergers, or big investment.
    Apr 15, 2015. 04:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenwich Boat Show [View instapost]
    ugly boat you picked for the photo.

    Singapore Yacht Show is 23rd April.
    Apr 10, 2015. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk Turkey [View instapost]
    Going in 3 weeks. Considerably cheaper tours are available.

    Hotels, tour guides, agencies, balloons are all charged in Euro (what a pity). Thus there is some currency discount and a path for total lira implosion.
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ALJ Regional Holdings - Upside In King Vs. Burwell [View article]
    The King case strikes me as insane. States can outsource medical care (to private hospitals), outsource call centres (hopefully to Faneuil), outsource accounting, outsource drug production, outsource drug sales (hopefully to WBA), etc etc. Why not outsource the website (to
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bargain Hunting In Thailand  [View instapost]
    My last trip to Phuket gave some anecdotal evidence that the military is doing a good job. The beaches were cleaned up, some of the corruption rings had been broken, they had hotlines set up to deal with local problems (imagine that, a government fixing the people's problems). Much of the "junta fear" seems gone by now though.
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will DHS Partially Shut Down On Or Before March 2 Due To Lack Of Funding?  [View instapost]
    Republican president sets up DHS, then Republican congress doesn't want to pay for it. Seems childish. Allocating responsibility without the resources also seems childish. I expect Republicans will take the brunt of the blame, eventually give in, then the voters will forget the entire incident.

    I suspect small or transient market effect.
    Feb 24, 2015. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Supreme Court Disallow Subsidies On Health Insurance Purchased Via The Federal Exchange? [View instapost]
    It seems rather odd that a state who hired a Delaware company to write code for its exchange is allowed a subsidy, but another state who hired a DC company (the Feds) to write code for its exchange should not be allowed a subsidy.

    Why should we as a society demand every state to hire programmers to replicate the same system 50 times, rather than pool into one system available to 50 states? It would clearly be good for programmers, but it's still dumb.

    Subsidies should not be determined by who the admin and check writer for the computer system is. They should be for all or none.
    Jan 27, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monarch Is As Cheap As Cement And As Boring As A Cement Plant In Kansas [View instapost]
    I asked again today:

    IB: Customers who held less than 600 shares of MCEM now own the contra security MCEM.CSH in which there is no eta on payment date yet. Not sure when or how much they will receive.
    SW: that's not particularly comforting. Is there a definite payment without eta or no definite payment?
    IB: the payment appears to be definite but the timing of the payment there is no time line for it.
    SW: Hopefully not "forever"
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Details Emerge On Why Seadrill Cut Its Dividend [View article]
    A raise would be higher EPS.

    More dividends is like buying my gf more crab dinners - nothing to show for it later. Borrowing to pay for crab dinners is fine (bringing forward future income) as long as there is enough future income to pay for it. Of course when the future comes, either there are no more dinners (already spent) or income needs to be higher.
    Jan 11, 2015. 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monarch Is As Cheap As Cement And As Boring As A Cement Plant In Kansas [View instapost]
    SW: What's the status for MCEM cash out?
    IB: Our corporate action group says they are just waiting for the DTC to pay it out.
    IB: No estimated timeframe.
    Jan 6, 2015. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Year's Irresolution [View instapost]
    I fully intend to destroy the environment by flying more.

    I intend to run my boat-enginge more and since it leaks oil, populate the ocean.

    I may be incentivised to add to the overcrowding in this city by adding to the population (depending on your counting that might be closer to 2016 or by my indecision closer to 2017).

    I will be virtuous and let you have the treadmill with a view as I will not be joining a gym.

    I should finally be able to exploit my efforts to work less while earning more, starting in a few months.

    I will improve the economy in Europe by purchasing an expensive hole in the water. I will then improve ship revenues by putting a perfectly good boat on top of another boat to move it across the oceans.

    I will not be dieting. My gf bought me a popcorn maker and it would be rude not to use it.

    I will not stop smoking. I full intended to juggle fire more often.

    I will not be nicer to my neighbours - I may even shut down their illegal 2am restaurant noises.

    I won't be kinder to animals. That dog is clearly pampered enough as it is and should work harder instead of using me as a cushion.

    I will not be gentler to children - those students should have the bar raised, not lowered. And I will employ them to work on meaningless research instead of employing myself. That might even force them to learn something.

    2015 looks to be an irreverent year.
    Jan 5, 2015. 03:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LendingClub: Overvalued And Not Disruptive [View article]
    Some errors:
    * As pointed out, LC's competition is Prospect et al. and eventually the European variants. LC is younger than Prospect yet grows faster, so LC probably executes at least "well".
    * LC's notes due default more than investment grade bonds, but hey, they are totally transparent, down to the typos in loan applications. LC also provides good stats on returns (2008 was *not* a good time to invest in LC notes!). As long as LC can balance rates with defaults, it should be fine.
    * Liquidity is not too bad. Matija puts it well.
    * I'm not sure why higher Treasury rates would make individuals default on LC loans. LC loans are not variable rate, so the current borrowers will not be hit by rising rates. Credit card rates are not so highly correlated to Treasury rates (credit risk is more important). Higher Treasury rates should mean better economy, so lower default rates (see chart in article).
    * LC notes are not securitisation. Each note is a pay through of exactly one loan. The payment structure is not bundled. More importantly, they are not tiered, so the effect of correlation is easier to think about and less painful than for CDOs. (And of course these are non-collateral …)
    * The battle for institutional investors will not be uphill, it's been won. The prospectus is clear that on order of 50% of invested funds are institutional and that segment is growing much much faster than the retail side. If there's a worry here it's that the retail side will die and LC will lose its sexy p2p branding.
    * Barriers to entry are probably higher than is obvious - every state has different rules for lending and even LC hasn't satisfied them all. Getting to scale is also hard, so the first to get there has a big advantage (ask Google).
    * Regulation already exists and LC has been working with the regulators for a long time already. Putting John Mack and Larry Summers on the board probably helped out here. If they can get Bernake that would be some sort of regulatory triple-crown. It's true that LC's advantage is *not* being regulated as a bank. But as long as they don't invest deposits, they should keep that advantage. Of course that also limits the loan origination. Perhaps they will set up a partner bank to feed it customers?
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment