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Squeeky Wheel  

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  • McDonald's Owners Seize Control [View article]
    Oct 28, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Owners Seize Control [View article]
    I'm of the opinion that WBA/RAD will go through. Question will be how many stores WBA will have to sell off and who will buy them.
    Oct 28, 2015. 01:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Fed's Dudley expects rate hike this year [View news story]
    I just mean that all the voters just barely preferred no change. They were all very close to a hike. So with a little bit better data they will all switch. It's unlikely you'll see a 5-4 split or something. When one changes her mind, all the men will too.
    Sep 29, 2015. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Fed's Dudley expects rate hike this year [View news story]
    It was a tipping point. 9 voters were 48% in favour of hike. Slightly better data and they would have been 9 voters 52% in favour of hike. So the committee could easily swing from mostly dove to mostly hike.
    Sep 28, 2015. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IRS cracks down on hedge fund tax maneuver [View news story]
    Yes. It was obviously questionable to start with (all do short term trades inside a box and call that box a contract and so make them long term trades!). And the IRS has said for a long time that they don't sound kosher. So don't be surprised when the IRS says 'nope, not kosher'.
    Jul 10, 2015. 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IRS cracks down on hedge fund tax maneuver [View news story]
    IRS has said this practice is illegal since 2010:

    So retroactive to 2011 is actually lenient. In general, creating a contract with no economic impact and only tax impact is unlikely to been seen by the IRS as a real change in the nature of the income.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Odd-Lot Outlet [View instapost]
    I recommend you find a cheaper broker.
    May 11, 2015. 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear, Greed, And Market Tops [View article]
    Very nice work. I got the impression that CNN creates a 1-100 for each component and then averages them.
    Apr 22, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lennar's Rally Could Come To An End [View article]
    Real wage growth has been stagnant for a long time. Nominal wage growth has been pitiful for 7 years. I had think wage growth is going to get any worse in the next few months. So whatever effect wages have, is already in the 2014 numbers.
    Apr 22, 2015. 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia to buy Alcatel-Lucent for $16.6B [View news story]
    If Nokia-pre is 30bn + Alu-pre 12bn = Nok-Alu market value of 42bn.
    If Nok-Alu has 5.1bn shares, then Nok-Alu is $8.24 per share, and Alu-pre is $4.32 per share.

    If Alu-pre is 16Bn then Nok-Alu is 46bn. Nok-Alu would be $9 and Alu-pre is $4.95 per share.

    So the question is how much is Nok-Alu worth?
    It's interesting that Nok will keep it's cash pile this way. Which means more mergers, or big investment.
    Apr 15, 2015. 04:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenwich Boat Show [View instapost]
    ugly boat you picked for the photo.

    Singapore Yacht Show is 23rd April.
    Apr 10, 2015. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk Turkey [View instapost]
    Going in 3 weeks. Considerably cheaper tours are available.

    Hotels, tour guides, agencies, balloons are all charged in Euro (what a pity). Thus there is some currency discount and a path for total lira implosion.
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ALJ Regional Holdings - Upside In King Vs. Burwell [View article]
    The King case strikes me as insane. States can outsource medical care (to private hospitals), outsource call centres (hopefully to Faneuil), outsource accounting, outsource drug production, outsource drug sales (hopefully to WBA), etc etc. Why not outsource the website (to
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bargain Hunting In Thailand  [View instapost]
    My last trip to Phuket gave some anecdotal evidence that the military is doing a good job. The beaches were cleaned up, some of the corruption rings had been broken, they had hotlines set up to deal with local problems (imagine that, a government fixing the people's problems). Much of the "junta fear" seems gone by now though.
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will DHS Partially Shut Down On Or Before March 2 Due To Lack Of Funding?  [View instapost]
    Republican president sets up DHS, then Republican congress doesn't want to pay for it. Seems childish. Allocating responsibility without the resources also seems childish. I expect Republicans will take the brunt of the blame, eventually give in, then the voters will forget the entire incident.

    I suspect small or transient market effect.
    Feb 24, 2015. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment