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  • Michael Kors Needs To Be More Like Coach, Believe It Or Not [View article]
    agnesRED, glad we have you here. You certainly understand business well. Investing is not about just look at a few numbers (growth numbers, P/E, P/S, ROE, buybacks, dividend, etc.) Investing is about understanding business direction. From my past experience, even those high valuation stocks, as long as their growth is sustainable, their stocks can outperform for years.

    I am sure many "value" investors who have advocated buying KORS since last year would have never invested in KORS when it was just IPO'ed. The stock used to enjoy PE in the north of 60. These investors may never buy it. In the end, smart investors are those who understand 60 is not too expensive for a stock that will grow 50% for a few years.
    May 22, 2015. 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Needs To Be More Like Coach, Believe It Or Not [View article]
    GODO, great comment. Unfortunately, the existing KORS shareholders who bought shares because they thought they paid a low multiple have to bear the cost of investing in a company whose management is destroying shareholder value to enrich themselves.

    I fortunately never feel KORS is cheap enough for a good investment.
    May 20, 2015. 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just another 10% pop for Shake Shack [View news story]
    This stock teaches many inexperienced shorts when it is a good time to short a overvalued stock. Valuation alone seldom triggers a substantial sell-off. Always, the best sell-off has to combine both high valuation and a fundamental shock.
    May 20, 2015. 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Needs To Be More Like Coach, Believe It Or Not [View article]
    GODO, thank you for your comment. You have to find the management's motivation of creating a separate company to deal with China. Management knows Far East Holding will create higher ROE over time, so they decided not to share the high return with minority shareholders. I am sure one day they will buy Far East Holding back, but at what price? At the time, KORS will have to pay a high premium for the company, which is owned by the KORS CEO and a few other "smart" businessmen (so they will use minority shareholders' money to enrich themselves again). Basically, current KORS' minority shareholders won't get any extra return from China at all. (Because KORS will surely have to pay a fair (premium) price to buy back Far East Holding in the future. )

    I hope you could understand how this works. Most retail investors don't understand this. Just look at the stock performance after the management announced the selfish Far East Holding plan last year. Many institution investors gradually sold their shares after that announcement. That's why the stock is in a gradual decline trend line.
    May 20, 2015. 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro tops $52 as CEO presents, talks up software [View news story]
    Joe, I start to feel the analysts just try to help a few buyers (including me) to get the shares at low price. Once GPRO bottomed at around $38, most analysts start to make a 180 degree turn. The sentiment has since improved steadily.
    May 19, 2015. 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Control4: Was The Q1 Report An Advance Obituary? [View article]
    I would say "dead company walking". It probably will walk for a long-time though. These marginal profitable tech companies can survive for a while before they ultimately obsolete.
    May 19, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors Needs To Be More Like Coach, Believe It Or Not [View article]
    I can't believe an article is entirely based on false information. KORS of course has stock buyback in place.

    If an investor believe a stock's performance is determined by capital allocation, the investor needs to seriously reassess his/her investing philosophy.

    KORS' problem is a straight fundamental problem. Comps growth is declining fast. Future market is limited due to no access to China. The company sells its China license to a company funded by the current KORS CEO. How sneaky is this practice! The CEO sold inflated KORS shares to fund a company that has higher growth potential so he has more money to make. The management is effectively robbing the KORS shareholders.
    May 19, 2015. 08:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro higher on Oppenheimer upgrade [View news story]
    This analyst has to learn forward looking. He has to realize that one of the reasons why GPRO has big potential is its "serious lacking in hardware/software interface". I would be very worried if GPRO already had as good hardware/software integration as Apple does but only had $3 billion sales a year. It is what GPRO lacks now makes it better in the future.
    May 18, 2015. 10:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro May Take Its Investors For A Roller-Coaster Ride [View article]
    Blue Eyes, welcome to the GPRO world. You are right that GPRO's main competitive advantage is marketing and brand.

    I just disagree that Sony is big competitor. Sony's force in the electronic world has long gone. The company spreads to many many small segments and none of them (maybe except for Playstation) is dominant. In the business world, you always like to have competitors who are not focused even though they are bigger. At the end, they almost never allocate enough resources to compete with those standalone leaders.
    May 15, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Control4 launches $20M buyback program [View news story]
    A breakeven early stage business needs to use share buyback to pump up shares. It shows how desperate management is.
    May 13, 2015. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jefferies Might Be Right About Skullcandy [View article]
    Not yet. Too early. It will take at least a few months for SKUL to regain momentum. It will find bottom somewhere between $7 and $8, but will probably go sideline for a few months. Again, I don't see sentiment could reverse so quickly.
    May 12, 2015. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jefferies Might Be Right About Skullcandy [View article]
    The near 30% decline post earnings is a combination of GM compression and rich valuation. I have made good money twice on SKUL. First, from $6 to $10. Second, from $7.5 to $10.8. I have never too emotional with SKUL. Yes, it has a great management team. But no one should argue that SKUL is not operating in a good business. (it is not too bad either.) So, SKUL is unlikely to maintain high valuation too long. Those who dream about a rise from $5 to $15 have to be realistic that this business is very hard to maintain a fast profitable growth. I am not saying it will not get $15 in the future. Rather, it is a low odd probability. It is also likely to take years to get there.

    Rising from $5 to $15 in 5 years implies about a 25% CAGR, which is not that great for individual stock performance.
    May 11, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro May Take Its Investors For A Roller-Coaster Ride [View article]
    Once gain, Samuel, even though you live somewhere in Asia (maybe Southeast Asia), you absolutely know little about East Asia consumers. As someone who has invested lots of stock with East Asia exposure, I can comfortably say you are completely wrong. What you said about Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese consumers is just third party stereotype.

    Japanese tend to support their own brands? You must not realize how bad they want American cell phones, American/European handbags, etc. You may also didn't how many Chinese save their one/two-month salaries just for an iPhone.

    If I have to summarize East Asia consumers, I would say many of them tend to buy luxury stuff as long as they could pay for them with two-month salaries. The perception of luxury or high-end is the key for them. They care less about specs than the luxury appeal. This is the reason that makes East Asia a top region for affordable luxury brands.

    Also, you have to realize that both China and Japan have huge population. 5% of them buy GoPro is a big deal.
    May 11, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Projections Point To An Overvalued Stock Despite The Tasty London Burger [View article]
    Sophocles, the short sellers who don't listen to us get burned. They are probably the force pushing to the stock to new high right now. Short selling is about Timing, Timing, and Timing. Valuation nerd is not going to make money from there.
    May 5, 2015. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro May Take Its Investors For A Roller-Coaster Ride [View article]
    I don't know which part of Asia you are in, but Asian consumers (China, Japan, South Korea, etc.) have repeatedly shown their willingness to pay premium price for high end (perceived high end) products. It doesn't matter if it is handbags, electronics, or alcohols. Asia is the second biggest market. Maybe your part of Asia behaves a little differently, but it doesn't matter. China, Japan, and South Korea and the biggest Asian markets.

    GPRO spent lots of money and time to make it to be a perceived high end brand. I am sure it will have a big market in Asia.
    May 5, 2015. 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment