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Stan Holland

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  • Linc Energy - Nearly A 'Sure Thing'? [View article]
    While I like to think that oil and gas in well within my circle of competence, I know that coal is outside my circle of competence. Coal as a commodity has been crushed in the last few years, but I can't help from being intrigued by a Linc Energy press release from 5-Sep-2008 (a dramatic period of time in the financial markets) where Linc Energy agreed to sell its Teresa coal exploration permits for AU$ 1.5 billion. The sale subsequently fell through and another buyer has not appeared, but this is an interesting data point that suggests that the coal assets may be worth at least its current enterprise value (if coal prices were ever to rebound) and that all the other assets are free.

    Does anyone have an estimation of what the conventional coal assets are currently worth?
    Oct 19, 2014. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linc Energy - Nearly A 'Sure Thing'? [View article]


    I also own a few shares in Linc Energy and after reading the annual report, I made the following notes/conclusions while ignoring the current drop in oil prices (temporary in my opinion):

    1.Proved PV10 for Gulf Coast = $417MM

    2.The Umiat field in Alaska has a 2P PV10 value of $2.465 billion, but page 12 of the 2013 annual report states that “Wood Mackenzie has estimated the sale value of Umiat as between $100 and $200 million in its current undeveloped state.” Page 13 of the 2014 annual report states that “the initial development of Umiat could include the drilling of up to 70 wells.” I believe that the one well drilled last winter did not significantly alter the $100 - $200 million estimated value of Umiat.

    3.The value of the Wyoming oil and gas assets in their current undeveloped state is de minimus.

    4.NEC conventional coal assets are difficult for me to value in today’s environment, but probably worth substantially less than the $400 million value advertised last year.

    5.UCG - I will not hazard a guess as the value of UCG, but it is worth noting that the company invested over $200 million over the last ten years.

    6.Face value of debts is $620 million

    7.$145 million USD for sale of Carmichael/Adani royalty

    8.591 million shares outstanding (divide by 10 to arrive at equivalent number of LNCGY shares)

    9.Enterprise value ~$850 million

    While I do not think that the underlying assets make Linc Energy a ‘Sure Thing’, I do believe that the current exploration program in the Arckaringa Basin make for an asymmetric high risk/high reward speculation. Linc Energy has three conventional leads that each might contain 18 to 22 billion barrels of oil (Gustavson best estimate - unrisked). Additionally, Linc Energy has three more conventional leads that each might contain 1.4 to 7.6 billion barrels of oil (Gustavson best estimate - unrisked) plus a bunch of smaller leads. At least one conventional target will be intersected with open hole testing if moveable hydrocarbons are detected. I wonder which conventional target they plan to intersect.

    Oct 18, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI: Potential 33% Upside After EPL Acquisition [View article]

    Listen to the June 10, 2014 Enercom presentation at the 20:00 mark.

    CEO states that EXXI's strength was more of an engineering shop and EPL was more of a GeoScience oriented company. EXXI got everybody they wanted on the professional staff except maybe three people and when you look at EPL's top ten management EXXI took five.

    Jul 20, 2014. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HRT Participacoes Has An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Profile - Part 2 [View article]
    The idea of extending the underutilized Urucu-Manaus pipeline to Petrobras' Jurua field and Rosneft's/HRT's fields has been revived.
    Jul 19, 2014. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linc Energy - Nearly A 'Sure Thing'? [View article]

    The net present value HAS been estimated for the Gulf Coast and Wyoming oil fields.

    As of Sep-2013 the proven PV-10 for the Gulf Coast = $601MM

    The 3P PV10 for Wyoming = $1.1 billion. Virtually all of the Wyoming reserves are in the possible category. Oil volumes have been classified as "possible" under SPE-PRMS guidelines because of several factors including the fact that there is no current productions in the fields under the planned CO2 recovery and no pilots have been implemented to prove the process. However, the historical waterflood performance is a predictor of sweep efficiency and subsequent CO2 flooding is low risk.

    Jul 18, 2014. 06:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If There Is Such A Thing As A Free Lunch In The Markets, Stans Energy's Favorable Settlement Comes Close [View article]

    Thank you for the interesting idea. The concern that I have is timing. My understanding is that the next step for Stans Energy is to obtain an Ontario court order. It seems to me that Stans Energy would follow a similar timeline as the Turkish company, Sistem, you reference in your article. Timeline for Sistem is as follows:

    9-Sep-2009 - final binding ruling by Arbitration Court

    5-Jan-2011 - The Ontario courts granted an Order recognizing and enforcing the award in Ontario and ordering the Kyrgyz Republic to pay Sistem in accordance with the arbitration award.

    After numerous motions based on jurisdictional issues and substantive issues...

    15-Apr-2014 - Ontario courts ruled that the Kyrgyz Republic had an "equitable or other interest" in shares of Centerra Gold held by Kyrgysaltyn and that such shares could be seized in Ontario to satisfy an international arbitration award made against the Kyrgyz Republic.

    The timeline was extracted from the following press release:

    Do you have any reason to believe that the process would go faster this time?

    Stan Holland
    Jul 13, 2014. 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vaalco Energy: 7 Reasons Why The Company Should Acquire Harvest Natural's Dussafu Block In Gabon [View article]
    Thank you for writing this excellent article FT!

    No doubt that the Dussafu block is on Vaalco's radar. All of the partners on both blocks joined forces to shoot the overlapping Central Dussafu 3D that is shown in your first image. I would be shocked if Vaalco has not visited the data room. I judge Vaalco's stock to be somewhat overvalued and an overvalued stock is excellent currency to use in an acquisition. Perhaps Vaalco could make a joint bid with one of their current partners too. Seems like there could be some synergies with sizing FPSO's between the two blocks. The most important thing is what is in the data room and unfortunately outside passive minority investors like ourselves can never really know that.
    Apr 13, 2014. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvest Natural Resources: A Risky Financial Conundrum With Some Trading Potential [View article]
    Thank you for writing your articles. Welcome to Seeking Alpha as a contributor! I look forward to reading future articles from you.
    Feb 12, 2014. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Alberta Oilsands Inc. [View article]
    Thank you for writing this article. If you count the money owed by the Alberta government, then this stock is a Benjamin Graham net-net trading at less than 2/3rds of NCAV. I am long.
    Dec 31, 2013. 05:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linc Energy Might Be A Positive Black Swan [View article]
    Yes, you are correct. Linc Energy retains a significant royalty ($2 per tonne (indexed to CPI) over the first 20 years of production) for the Carmichael Coal tenement sold to Adani Mining.

    "The Adani Group remains on target to start overburden removal operations at the Carmichael coal project in third Quarter of 2014 with exports to occur in first Quarter 2017. The ramp up to full production (60 Mtpa) is expected by 2023."
    Dec 30, 2013. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linc Energy Might Be A Positive Black Swan [View article]
    I am not the best person to ask about ASX listing verses SGX listing, but here is a 4-Oct-2013 video of CEO Peter Bond claiming the benefits.

    It seems to me that the ~$50 million capital raise was accomplished because of the switch.
    Dec 30, 2013. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HRT Participacoes Has An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Profile - Part 4 [View article]
    The following linked article is a bit dated, but I believe the underlining argument is still valid:

    Southeastern Asset Management has sold all of their shares, and I have sold the majority of my shares, but I still hold a few for the reasons stated in the linked article and for lack of opportunities.

    I seem to be genetically attracted to homerun stocks so if anyone has any suggestions, please let me know.
    Dec 14, 2013. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vaalco Energy Offers An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Opportunity [View article]
    The November 26th, 2013 presentation gives more color on the "humongous" Ombundi Lead in the Kwanza Basin. Potential = 100-400-760 MMbls. This potential is depicted in the cartoon as being spread across three horizons. This makes the high 760 MMbls scenario very unlikely as all three horizons would have to be successful AND all three would have to be at the high end of their possible outcomes. Still very high impact potential for the company, but the risked high case is probably less than one half of the one billion barrels that I dreamed about in my article. The potential will most likely be revised after the 3D seismic is processed.
    Dec 7, 2013. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources - Two Options To Eliminate Debt And Potentially Triple Its Share Price [View article]

    In order to buy the entire company, a buyer would have to offer a premium to the $3.3 billon enterprise value ($1.1 billion market cap plus the $2.2 billion in net debt).
    Nov 27, 2013. 06:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At 40% Of Net Asset Value, Lightstream Will Be Bought Out [View article]
    Thanks for the article MLP. I am having trouble with your calculation of enterprise value. By my calculation there is $2.2B in net debt and over $1B in market cap, even at yesterday's 52 week low.
    Nov 22, 2013. 08:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment