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Stan Holland  

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  • Linc Energy Might Be A Positive Black Swan [View article]
    Yes, you are correct. Linc Energy retains a significant royalty ($2 per tonne (indexed to CPI) over the first 20 years of production) for the Carmichael Coal tenement sold to Adani Mining.

    "The Adani Group remains on target to start overburden removal operations at the Carmichael coal project in third Quarter of 2014 with exports to occur in first Quarter 2017. The ramp up to full production (60 Mtpa) is expected by 2023."
    Dec 30, 2013. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linc Energy Might Be A Positive Black Swan [View article]
    I am not the best person to ask about ASX listing verses SGX listing, but here is a 4-Oct-2013 video of CEO Peter Bond claiming the benefits.

    It seems to me that the ~$50 million capital raise was accomplished because of the switch.
    Dec 30, 2013. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HRT Participacoes Has An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Profile - Part 4 [View article]
    The following linked article is a bit dated, but I believe the underlining argument is still valid:

    Southeastern Asset Management has sold all of their shares, and I have sold the majority of my shares, but I still hold a few for the reasons stated in the linked article and for lack of opportunities.

    I seem to be genetically attracted to homerun stocks so if anyone has any suggestions, please let me know.
    Dec 14, 2013. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vaalco Energy Offers An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Opportunity [View article]
    The November 26th, 2013 presentation gives more color on the "humongous" Ombundi Lead in the Kwanza Basin. Potential = 100-400-760 MMbls. This potential is depicted in the cartoon as being spread across three horizons. This makes the high 760 MMbls scenario very unlikely as all three horizons would have to be successful AND all three would have to be at the high end of their possible outcomes. Still very high impact potential for the company, but the risked high case is probably less than one half of the one billion barrels that I dreamed about in my article. The potential will most likely be revised after the 3D seismic is processed.
    Dec 7, 2013. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources - Two Options To Eliminate Debt And Potentially Triple Its Share Price [View article]

    In order to buy the entire company, a buyer would have to offer a premium to the $3.3 billon enterprise value ($1.1 billion market cap plus the $2.2 billion in net debt).
    Nov 27, 2013. 06:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At 40% Of Net Asset Value, Lightstream Will Be Bought Out [View article]
    Thanks for the article MLP. I am having trouble with your calculation of enterprise value. By my calculation there is $2.2B in net debt and over $1B in market cap, even at yesterday's 52 week low.
    Nov 22, 2013. 08:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Portfolio - Q3 2013 Update [View article]

    Long case here.
    Nov 15, 2013. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Canadian Oil Bargains - An Update [View article]
    I like the idea of EV/boepd/netbacks, but I am having trouble reconciling your numbers with Strategic Oil's numbers. Specifically, I see EV/boepd/netbacks = 72,600/3924/29.92 = $2,427. What am I missing?
    Sep 21, 2013. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HRT Participacoes Has An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Profile - Part 2 [View article]
    After the conclusion of the gas monetization study, it doesn't appear that the natural gas in the Solimoes has much present value.
    Sep 2, 2013. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HRT Participacoes Has An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Profile - Part 4 [View article]

    I am still long and haven't sold any shares. In part 2 (link in main article) I made the case how downside risk MIGHT be mitigated, but there is a lot risk here. Do not bet more than you can afford to lose. -Stan
    Aug 26, 2013. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrominerales: This Beaten Down Stock Is About To Regain Upward Momentum [View article]
    Good article VD. I believe that the downside risk is low at the current share price and that potential upside thru exploration and heavy oil blocks is large. Investing is about probabilities and I believe that this is a good stock to own in a diversified portfolio.

    Disclosure: I am long PMGLF
    Aug 26, 2013. 08:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seven Billion Reasons To Own Bankers Petroleum [View article]

    Please correct me if I am wrong, but my interpretation of Slide 11 of their latest presentation is that primary recovery to date in their core area is 7% and their reserves are based on 17% recovery factor. Possible upside in their core area thru water flooding and/or polymer flooding.

    In the southern and periphery area the primary recovery to date is 3% and their reserves are based on 11% recover factor. Possible upside thru primary (I assume they mean that the recovery factor may be similar to their core area), water flooding, and/or polymer flooding.

    Water flooding, when it works, typically yields recovery factors similar to the primary recovery. No guarantee that upside will happen, but with the stock trading at approx half of the 2P PV10 value, the upside is free.

    Aug 18, 2013. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone-XL Pipeline: Delayed So Long It No Longer Matters? [View article]
    Chesapeake is converting their trucks over. I just saw one of their new compressed natural gas pickups on the highway last week. It is my understanding that these are actually bi-fuel trucks (the article below seems to indicate this too).
    Aug 7, 2013. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HRT Participacoes Has An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Profile - Part 4 [View article]

    Great stuff. There is a big difference between modeling/predicting source rock and actually finding it like Chariot did on the neighboring block. Mello has said one of the biggest risks was that because the structures were so large that the source rocks might not be prolific enough to fully charge them. With world class source rocks verified on the neighboring block, I believe that the probabilties have increased, especially for the high end of the range.

    Also, in my opinion, I don't believe that Chariot would describe primarily gas bearing source rocks as world class so I believe that the has verses oil risk has also decreased.

    We will know in about two months.

    Aug 5, 2013. 07:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HRT Participacoes Has An Asymmetric Risk/Reward Profile - Part 4 [View article]
    According to the latest Chariot Oil & Gas Fact Sheet:

    "Kabeljou well on the Nimrod prospect drilled 3Q 2012. World class source rock encountered, no commercial hydrocarbons found."

    I believe that this is new information is new. The existence of world class source rock on the neighboring block increases the odds that I calculated for Moosehead substantially.
    Aug 4, 2013. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment