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Stanley Barton

 
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  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    I am long KNDI, but I have sold call options as I expect it to drop to $15 or so to "fill the gap" technically. I think the long-term opportunity is great, if Chinese consumers actually start buying the cars. I do not know exactly why virtually the only car sales are to the car-share program...maybe someone can enlighten me on that. Is there some restriction that I am not seeing? Also, it appears that the sales in June dropped from about 1500 in April and May to about 1000 in June. The stock needs to accelerate growth to justify valuation and it looks like the car-share sales may have peaked, and consumer sales must pick up the slack. Nonetheless, after the gap is filled, I am buying more...that's the launching pad.
    Aug 14 11:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Invest In Argentina? [View article]
    Best way to play Argentina is with AGRO, a vertically integrated farm/food/ethanol play. Very undervalued land holdings and less likely to suffer from currency/economy issues.
    Aug 14 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: Concerns Over Recent 10-Q Have No Merit [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I am still long Kandi as a long-term investment, but took the opportunity last week to take some profits.

    Frankly, I was stunned by the market reaction to the sales growth. It was already public knowledge that the company had sold about 3200 cars in the first two months of the quarter, so the 4100 number represents a drop back to only 900 or so in the third month of the quarter. This is an unexplained decline, and possibly a sign of things to come. I thought the smart money would immediately recognize that and punish the stock. I was pleasantly surprised when it went ballistic, although it did the same thing last winter and then collapsed. The Carshare deal is good for now; however, the company needs to be able to establish strong sales directly with Chinese consumers to meet my long-term goals, and for now it appears there is little indication that KNDI is gaining traction in that area.

    With the subsidies, I think eventually KNDI will get the consumers, but it will take time. I was very pleased to see that they actually did collect the subsidy money...one never knows in the Chinese market, and it was one of the risk factors I was concerned about when adding this one to client portfolios.
    Jul 24 12:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iteris: Accounting Delay Offers Compelling Entry Point [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    I got a ticket for running a stop light...caught on camera. So I decided to look for technology stocks in the traffic technology niche. I started with ISNS and found ITI in my investigation. I like it better, because it is turning a profit and growing revenue. Long-term, I think ITI has a big market in traffic that is barely scratched, and smaller markets in weather detection, ag, etc.

    No debt, double-digit growth, big and untapped markets, market cap below book and revs...well, the accounting issue will eventually be resolved, but these factors look pretty solid for years to come.

    Just my opinion, but this is likely to either get discovered by the market one day and go ballistic, or it will be dead money for awhile. At any rate, the downside does not look very scary at this beaten-down price.
    Jul 23 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chariot Oil Is A Rising Star [View article]
    Thanks for introducing me to this interesting opportunity.

    However...I think that the proceeds of the farm out of Morocco will be more like $15MM not $20MM, as the 3D costs included in the $33MM 2014 expenditures report are $13MM and the previous year reports add about $2MM.

    Also...I would be very surprised to see the "upside trigger" of a 2P reserve estimate in the next 14 months. This is nowhere on the company's own published timeline, which goes out to 2016. I am no expert on such things, but I do not think they can call reserves "proven" or "probable" without any drilling to back that up, and no drilling is likely in 2014.

    I do agree that there may be potential here, but maybe not much to trigger the market until later.
    Jul 12 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crawford & Company: Making The Most Of Natural Disasters [View article]
    Nice earnings report for SLP today. Looks like Asian customers providing better kick than I expected, and 91% software renewals bodes well for 3.5% dividend.
    Jul 3 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crawford & Company: Making The Most Of Natural Disasters [View article]
    Goalkick9

    I saw today SLP sold some licenses for simulation software to the US Environmental Protection Agency...that means that approval for non-drugs can be fast-tracked using the SLP software. Solid company, solid dividend, just not well discovered. Revenue grew by 11% without one special order, which bumped it to 20% growth, last quarter. I am considering adding this one to or Diversified Dividend portfolio.

    Thanks for reading,

    Stan
    Jul 2 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Disasters Aren't The Only Threats To Universal Insurance Holdings [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    I am long both UVE and HCI and think that both are undervalued in today's market by several standards. For example, both have single digit PE's, and double-digit EPS growth projections. The sales to book a little over 2 is hardly what I consider "pricey." It should be noted that revenue figures are net of reinsurance premiums. The concern I have always had about HCI is that its reinsurance was thin compared to UVE. The market undervalues these companies because of the hurricane threat, but the reinsurance policies of these two greatly reduce that concern for me. As for revenue declining, UVE wrote 48% more policies in the latest quarter year over year, although it has the goal of reducing exposure in Florida and expanding in less disaster-prone states. The result is lower average premium, but less risk and future reduction in reinsurance costs. Incidentally, I also hold CRD.A (Crawford & Company) in my portfolios, as it stands to benefit from hurricanes and other disasters.

    Regarding the investment portfolio, my original investment in UVE was because the financial growth and stability of this one's operations were disguised by huge investment losses resulting from the management going all-in on precious metal stocks at their peak. While I doubted the intelligence and gambler-mentality of the management for this decision, I suspected that once these investment losses were turned around, the quarterly comps would show huge improvements, which is happening.

    In summary, the low valuation, stock buy-backs, tailwinds from improved investment portfolio, reduction in risk exposure, probable dividend hikes and buy out potential make UVE a reasonable and conservative investment candidate in my estimation.
    Jun 22 10:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: Didn't We See This Movie Already In 1999-2000? [View article]
    Good combination of common sense and creative writing style.

    I thoroughly enjoyed reading your article.

    Mind if I borrow some of your picturesque phrases ("cash bonfire," veneer of puffery," etc.) that may come in handy in describing the IPO wave that is about to inundate the market?
    Jun 21 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Might Be The Cheapest Investment In Apparel [View article]
    Actually CHKE is the cheapest...single digit PE with yesterdays earnings announcement and double digit growth.
    Jun 11 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Sale Bargain: NetSol Technologies [View article]
    thaze

    I read the report, and it is disappointing considering that I expected this quarter to start showing ASCENT revenues. It appears that the demand for this product is not there. Could be a temporary delay, as the emerging markets and auto leasing have slowed, but at any rate, it is bad for NTWK, given its investment in the new version. Unless in the report on May 12 there is more palpable news about the pipeline than in this report, I assume that NTWK will need to try to go back to pushing the legacy products...the report pretty much indicates this. As for the stock, I am expecting it to drop, but if the company announced two new contracts in the same month for ASCENT it could take off. Given the market attitude about these little tech stocks, there are better places to put money right now.

    Stan
    May 8 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cherokee, Inc.: On The Royalty Growth Path [View article]
    galacianova

    I've been bogged down on special projects. I have had to work on a huge report for a real estate developer client, and it has taken all my free time. I got this article on Cherokee out, as I felt like there was a timeliness issue. Thanks for the reminder...actually that upddate is always my most popular article, so I need to get that done. I have not been trading out of anything in the dividend portfolio lately, as I am in it for the long-term and stocks are fundamentally OK.

    Stan
    May 1 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cherokee, Inc.: On The Royalty Growth Path [View article]
    CT Programmer

    I cannot speak for the analyst. I do know that sometimes an analyst will update projections for one year and subsequent years will reflect a non-updated number. Also, when the company has an acquisition, there are one-time costs associated with that deal, and I think it is likely that there will be a major acquisition in the next year or two. However, I am expecting about 7 - 12% growth in subsequent years, if there are no major acquisitions. This is based on the growth factors indicated in the article.

    I use the GAAP earnings to be more conservative, that is the difference.

    Thanks for reading my article.

    Stan
    Apr 30 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Sale Bargain: NetSol Technologies [View article]
    njaved

    No news from NTWK, and a lot is riding on the next earnings announcement. I was not overwhelmed by the last one, but I did not expect much either. They have had enough time to market their new version, and, as I mentioned, the first quarter of the calendar year is a good time for new and renewal software licenses. I am holding this one, but not buying more right now. I still think that the management would not be gambling on so many new hires and other growth initiatives if they did not have good visibility into the prospects for ASCENT software.

    Hope this helps,

    Stan
    Apr 24 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wendy's Remodeling Program Is A Worthwhile Investment [View article]
    If you like Wendy's you should love MHGU, a Wendy's franchisee with about 120 restaurants. It is building and remodeling locations, with a subsidy from Wendy's and sells for about 12 times trailing earnings, with guidance for 50% revenue and income growth. It trades pretty thinly, but one day the value will come through. It is the cheapest publicly-traded restaurant stock.
    Apr 18 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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189 Comments
145 Likes