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  • Update: St. Andrew Goldfields Reports In-Line 2014 Production [View article]
    I am trying to focus on producers. The current problem with exploration ventures such as ATAC is that there are lots of properties owned by companies that are on the edge of bankruptcy, and it is not exactly a sellers market when it comes to developmental gold properties. If one has a very long-term perspective and patience to wait for the payoff, eventually there may be profit to be made by buying these types of ventures. I personally am not big on Yukon properties as the actual mining is seasonal, and that means the property has to be extra-special to justify the mine/mill development expense. Probably not what you wanted to read, but just my opinion without doing extensive research on the company.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: St. Andrew Goldfields Reports In-Line 2014 Production [View article]
    All-in sustaining costs of $1060 could drop below $1000 with 94% mill recovery rates and toll milling revenue. Cash costs may drop below $750. Per November presentation, debt has been paid off...debt free and cash on hand for exploration. Bulk samples from Taylor this quarter and production plan launch in first half of 2015. Even without exploration, existing mineral resources enough for about a decade of production at current levels. STADF selling for less than 3X cash flow is a gift. At current depressed gold prices, $85MM miner should generate at least $250MM in free cash during the next decade. Best of all...properties are in ultra-friendly Canadian mining district. Needless to say...this and RIC are the only junior miners I am comfortable with right now.
    Jan 11, 2015. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amira Nature Foods' Gifts Keep On Coming [View article]
    Hard to tell the exact impact. The latest annual report provides some clues:

    43% of revenue from this region (EMEA)
    50% of revenue is "third party branded"
    35% of revenue from five largest customers

    This may indicate about $41MM from the 5 largest customers, so the contract seems to represent at least a $50MM increase from this customer...about a 10% bump in revenue if order is for delivery in 12 month period. Just a wild guess, but not insignificant.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amira Nature Foods Leaves A Big Present Under The Tree [View article]
    Shorts probably still have a profit and postponing closing the positions until January. My guess is they are hoping the "Santa Clause" rally will reverse in January, but I think they would be in trouble if they wait too long...the smart ones will close out on January 2. Technically, the stock also has a history of climbing into earnings. Expect analysts to start raising EPS targets pretty soon...the average price target is already $21...more than a 50% jump from today's price. Since ANFI was the top stock gainer it got on some lists...so analyst/newsletter coverage could increase also. Notice the after-hours spike yesterday. Market maker is trying to arrange block buys already. A serious squeeze is definitely a possibility. Just my opinion...
    Dec 27, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amira Nature Foods Leaves A Big Present Under The Tree [View article]
    I think we can see who is desperate here. It is probably true that the company made the announcement to reassure shareholders. However, it would have been irresponsible to watch the share price drop, largely on a "mistake" by some analysts in reporting that the company did not meet earnings expectations in recent quarter...which was retracted after the momentum was shifted to the downside. In my opinion, when it becomes clear to a company that there is a substantial change in the operations making their own guidance outdated, they should revise it accordingly.

    The recent quarter was cash flow negative because the company reduced trade payables by $30MM, or about $.83 per share. This is a function of increased paddy procurement and storage (premium basmati is aged 12-18 months). The aging process is why the big savings in lower rough rice costs are not yet fully reflected in earnings and cash flow. In other words, this is an investment in growth and capturing monopolistic market share through the supply chain. The company is also constructing a plant to more than double processing capacity. Investors should decide if the company should use cash to pay off debt, which is higher than optimal, or aggressively take advantage of market dynamics to insure future growth.
    
    Freight accounts for about $20MM in costs for the company ($.55 per share), and no one is factoring in the savings due to the drop in oil.

    Seems like there should be better short candidates than a stock with 25% growth, a single-digit PE, and positive tailwinds for cost of goods. JMHO
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amira Nature Foods Leaves A Big Present Under The Tree [View article]
    The shorts drove this down, but it is time for them to move on. This stock is complicated and misunderstood. In addition to the shorting, the drop in share price seems to be tied to the drop in commodity prices and strong dollar, as it sells rice, which has dropped drastically in price this year, mostly in foreign countries. The exchange rate is a minor headwind, but the drop in the commodity price of rice is a giant windfall. ANFI buys rice, processes it and sells it globally. Although YAHOO indicates that ANFI also sells "bulk commodities," that accounts for less than 1% of revenue. Not only is ANFI expanding markets, the cost of goods sold (rice) will be down 30%, now that they are working off the inventory that existed before. ANFI is a middleman, and the middleman wins when commodity prices drop. ANFI could make the bold announcement, because they should beat that guidance easily.
    Dec 25, 2014. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CareTust Shines Like A Small-Cap Diamond In The Rough [View article]
    Brad,

    Thanks for the info. Any thoughts on SNR, which was a recent spin-off from Newcastle in the same sector?
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aemetis: Rewards Outweigh Risks [View article]
    AMTX has developed technology for processing alternate feedstock and long-term that distinguishes it from other similar companies. I look at it as a tech company that is in the early stages of development. It is profitable so I agree the risk/reward equation is attractive at the current price.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Plunging Oil Prices Hurting The Market? [View article]
    The drastic drop in oil created margin calls for large speculators, causing sales of other investments, including stocks. The worst of this is over, IMHO.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Skystar Bio Pharmaceuticals Earnings - Boost In Q2 Revenue [View article]
    The cash balance is actually pretty good...nearly $2 per share for a $4.50 stock. The company has been in business for several years, so I am not too concerned about the reverse merger. It is a good time to go bottom fishing for Chinese small caps if you are hoping to grow your long term portfolio, and this one is in a business with macro tailwinds. The price has been beaten down, and if earnings to be announced soon come anywhere close to company guidance, the down side looks minimal compared to the potential pop. JMHO
    Nov 11, 2014. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally, This High-Yield Microcap Is Helping The FDA Cut Approval Time [View article]
    Goalkick9,

    Nice to hear from you. My other projects are going slow, but I am very busy watching client's money lately.

    I really like SLP and the recent acquisition will only make them a more valuable resource for their customers. They have good reputation with customers as evidenced by recurring revenue, so I think cross-selling will be easy for them. I also like that SLP announced the agreement with the FDA. Although it is small money, it says a lot about how well SLP is cementing their position with the regulatory agencies...the fact that now the FDA is coming to them to help develop how they use the SLP technology to make drug evaluation faster in a very specific area. This is just the beginning. As a long-term holding, SLP is building a moat that will not be easy for others to duplicate.

    As far as the short-term outlook, the market is brutal to small cap technology stocks, and SLP has not been immune. Technically, it seems to have strong support in its current level. The earnings report will likely have one-time costs for the acquisition that could detract from EPS, and a knee-jerk reaction might be to punish the stock if that happens. I am holding and looking to add if there is a drop to $5 or below. I think this could be a $10 stock next year. The dividend over 3% looks like a good reason to keep this as a core holding.

    Hope that helps/
    Oct 18, 2014. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • inTest: A Big Winner In A Semiconductor Capital Equipment Upcycle [View article]
    No argument about those trailing metrics. However, NVMI forward PE is lower, and 2014 growth estimates are 13% for NVMI versus 6.8% for INTT...seems a disconnect: lower PE and higher growth. Also, NVMI has higher growth because they stay on the leading edge, out-spending INTT on R&D by $9 to every $1 for INTT. In fact, if R&D were eliminated from the costs, NVMI pretax profit would be 122% higher, as opposed to INTT which would be 42% higher...making the PE difference even more glaring. Finally, NVMI consistently meets/exceeds earnings estimates, while INTT earnings have been lumpy. Like I said, probably both are good investments...personally I like NVMI better for the long-term.
    Sep 19, 2014. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • inTest: A Big Winner In A Semiconductor Capital Equipment Upcycle [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Looks like a good investment, although NVMI is better in almost every metric, and maintains eps and fcf growth despite huge R&D investments.
    Sep 18, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amira Nature Foods - Huge Run With More To Go? [View article]
    The commodity price of rough rice has fallen nearly 20% in the past month and this is very good for a rice processor like Amira. Cost of goods drops while retail prices are stable. That is why ANFI is building inventory right now...to assure low cost of goods for months to come.
    Sep 5, 2014. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen's Shares Aren't Too Appetizing At These Price Levels [View article]
    Wrong, wrong and, well, wrong...

    PLKI is taking market share from YUM, not the other way around.

    CMG is not a competitor in the fried chicken segment and has a PE history that would make it a sell two years ago, according to the authors logic.

    PLKI has a PE a little less than the industry average, despite higher same store growth and EPS growth than average.

    PLKI over the past two years has seen PE expansion much less than the PE expansion of the SP 500.

    PLKI is selling for less than it was a year ago, despite 15% growth and earnings beats.

    PLKI management is exceptional, accounting for the long history of innovation and profits. PE expansion is not an accident...growth in earnings and market perception has backing of years of over-performance....it is a better bet that that will continue.

    Just my opinion, there are better bubbles in the fast food industry, starting with CMG... the next new player could replicate the model, except saturation is already setting in.
    Aug 29, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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