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Stanley Barton  

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  • Update: Amira Nature Foods Leaves A Big Present Under The Tree [View article]
    The shorts drove this down, but it is time for them to move on. This stock is complicated and misunderstood. In addition to the shorting, the drop in share price seems to be tied to the drop in commodity prices and strong dollar, as it sells rice, which has dropped drastically in price this year, mostly in foreign countries. The exchange rate is a minor headwind, but the drop in the commodity price of rice is a giant windfall. ANFI buys rice, processes it and sells it globally. Although YAHOO indicates that ANFI also sells "bulk commodities," that accounts for less than 1% of revenue. Not only is ANFI expanding markets, the cost of goods sold (rice) will be down 30%, now that they are working off the inventory that existed before. ANFI is a middleman, and the middleman wins when commodity prices drop. ANFI could make the bold announcement, because they should beat that guidance easily.
    Dec 25, 2014. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CareTust Shines Like A Small-Cap Diamond In The Rough [View article]

    Thanks for the info. Any thoughts on SNR, which was a recent spin-off from Newcastle in the same sector?
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aemetis: Rewards Outweigh Risks [View article]
    AMTX has developed technology for processing alternate feedstock and long-term that distinguishes it from other similar companies. I look at it as a tech company that is in the early stages of development. It is profitable so I agree the risk/reward equation is attractive at the current price.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Plunging Oil Prices Hurting The Market? [View article]
    The drastic drop in oil created margin calls for large speculators, causing sales of other investments, including stocks. The worst of this is over, IMHO.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Skystar Bio Pharmaceuticals Earnings - Boost In Q2 Revenue [View article]
    The cash balance is actually pretty good...nearly $2 per share for a $4.50 stock. The company has been in business for several years, so I am not too concerned about the reverse merger. It is a good time to go bottom fishing for Chinese small caps if you are hoping to grow your long term portfolio, and this one is in a business with macro tailwinds. The price has been beaten down, and if earnings to be announced soon come anywhere close to company guidance, the down side looks minimal compared to the potential pop. JMHO
    Nov 11, 2014. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally, This High-Yield Microcap Is Helping The FDA Cut Approval Time [View article]

    Nice to hear from you. My other projects are going slow, but I am very busy watching client's money lately.

    I really like SLP and the recent acquisition will only make them a more valuable resource for their customers. They have good reputation with customers as evidenced by recurring revenue, so I think cross-selling will be easy for them. I also like that SLP announced the agreement with the FDA. Although it is small money, it says a lot about how well SLP is cementing their position with the regulatory agencies...the fact that now the FDA is coming to them to help develop how they use the SLP technology to make drug evaluation faster in a very specific area. This is just the beginning. As a long-term holding, SLP is building a moat that will not be easy for others to duplicate.

    As far as the short-term outlook, the market is brutal to small cap technology stocks, and SLP has not been immune. Technically, it seems to have strong support in its current level. The earnings report will likely have one-time costs for the acquisition that could detract from EPS, and a knee-jerk reaction might be to punish the stock if that happens. I am holding and looking to add if there is a drop to $5 or below. I think this could be a $10 stock next year. The dividend over 3% looks like a good reason to keep this as a core holding.

    Hope that helps/
    Oct 18, 2014. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • inTest: A Big Winner In A Semiconductor Capital Equipment Upcycle [View article]
    No argument about those trailing metrics. However, NVMI forward PE is lower, and 2014 growth estimates are 13% for NVMI versus 6.8% for INTT...seems a disconnect: lower PE and higher growth. Also, NVMI has higher growth because they stay on the leading edge, out-spending INTT on R&D by $9 to every $1 for INTT. In fact, if R&D were eliminated from the costs, NVMI pretax profit would be 122% higher, as opposed to INTT which would be 42% higher...making the PE difference even more glaring. Finally, NVMI consistently meets/exceeds earnings estimates, while INTT earnings have been lumpy. Like I said, probably both are good investments...personally I like NVMI better for the long-term.
    Sep 19, 2014. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • inTest: A Big Winner In A Semiconductor Capital Equipment Upcycle [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Looks like a good investment, although NVMI is better in almost every metric, and maintains eps and fcf growth despite huge R&D investments.
    Sep 18, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amira Nature Foods - Huge Run With More To Go? [View article]
    The commodity price of rough rice has fallen nearly 20% in the past month and this is very good for a rice processor like Amira. Cost of goods drops while retail prices are stable. That is why ANFI is building inventory right assure low cost of goods for months to come.
    Sep 5, 2014. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen's Shares Aren't Too Appetizing At These Price Levels [View article]
    Wrong, wrong and, well, wrong...

    PLKI is taking market share from YUM, not the other way around.

    CMG is not a competitor in the fried chicken segment and has a PE history that would make it a sell two years ago, according to the authors logic.

    PLKI has a PE a little less than the industry average, despite higher same store growth and EPS growth than average.

    PLKI over the past two years has seen PE expansion much less than the PE expansion of the SP 500.

    PLKI is selling for less than it was a year ago, despite 15% growth and earnings beats.

    PLKI management is exceptional, accounting for the long history of innovation and profits. PE expansion is not an accident...growth in earnings and market perception has backing of years of is a better bet that that will continue.

    Just my opinion, there are better bubbles in the fast food industry, starting with CMG... the next new player could replicate the model, except saturation is already setting in.
    Aug 29, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Skystar Bio Pharmaceuticals Earnings - Boost In Q2 Revenue [View article]

    I like the business, but can't get past the fact that Accounts Receivable have jumped by about $8MM in 2014 so far, while net income is only about $3MM. Deeper in the 10k we find negative cash flow from operations. I know they have cash to burn, but does this not concern you?
    Aug 26, 2014. 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    I am long KNDI, but I have sold call options as I expect it to drop to $15 or so to "fill the gap" technically. I think the long-term opportunity is great, if Chinese consumers actually start buying the cars. I do not know exactly why virtually the only car sales are to the car-share program...maybe someone can enlighten me on that. Is there some restriction that I am not seeing? Also, it appears that the sales in June dropped from about 1500 in April and May to about 1000 in June. The stock needs to accelerate growth to justify valuation and it looks like the car-share sales may have peaked, and consumer sales must pick up the slack. Nonetheless, after the gap is filled, I am buying more...that's the launching pad.
    Aug 14, 2014. 11:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now The Time To Invest In Argentina? [View article]
    Best way to play Argentina is with AGRO, a vertically integrated farm/food/ethanol play. Very undervalued land holdings and less likely to suffer from currency/economy issues.
    Aug 14, 2014. 10:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: Concerns Over Recent 10-Q Have No Merit [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I am still long Kandi as a long-term investment, but took the opportunity last week to take some profits.

    Frankly, I was stunned by the market reaction to the sales growth. It was already public knowledge that the company had sold about 3200 cars in the first two months of the quarter, so the 4100 number represents a drop back to only 900 or so in the third month of the quarter. This is an unexplained decline, and possibly a sign of things to come. I thought the smart money would immediately recognize that and punish the stock. I was pleasantly surprised when it went ballistic, although it did the same thing last winter and then collapsed. The Carshare deal is good for now; however, the company needs to be able to establish strong sales directly with Chinese consumers to meet my long-term goals, and for now it appears there is little indication that KNDI is gaining traction in that area.

    With the subsidies, I think eventually KNDI will get the consumers, but it will take time. I was very pleased to see that they actually did collect the subsidy never knows in the Chinese market, and it was one of the risk factors I was concerned about when adding this one to client portfolios.
    Jul 24, 2014. 12:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iteris: Accounting Delay Offers Compelling Entry Point [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    I got a ticket for running a stop light...caught on camera. So I decided to look for technology stocks in the traffic technology niche. I started with ISNS and found ITI in my investigation. I like it better, because it is turning a profit and growing revenue. Long-term, I think ITI has a big market in traffic that is barely scratched, and smaller markets in weather detection, ag, etc.

    No debt, double-digit growth, big and untapped markets, market cap below book and revs...well, the accounting issue will eventually be resolved, but these factors look pretty solid for years to come.

    Just my opinion, but this is likely to either get discovered by the market one day and go ballistic, or it will be dead money for awhile. At any rate, the downside does not look very scary at this beaten-down price.
    Jul 23, 2014. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment