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Stanley Barton

 
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  • Two Crazy-Cheap $5 Stocks To Benefit From China's Initiatives For Its Middle Class [View article]
    GrowthGreek,

    Thanks for the suggestions for the Chinese market. I will add those to the list I am filtering. I know that there are mistakes and scams in this market, and it is good to distinguish between those. The short sellers are always a problem, even though often there is little reality to accusations. I look at any investment in these small Chinese companies as strictly a long-term proposition. In some cases, companies with some doubt overhang actually may be the better bargains, if you can get past the doubts. EVK has suffered some from an SEC sanction about a transaction between the company and a related party, which is probably a relatively insignificant and honest mistake. I am more concerned about smoke and mirror earnings and overvaluation of properties, etc. that some Chinese companies allow...investors really need to study what they are buying.

    I am still trying to figure out all the ramifications of the Chinese initiatives. One I just discovered is that the Chinese government will now require periodical testing of students' progress, instead of just annually. That will be a huge boon to XUE immediately, as their business has been very seasonal due to the once-a-year cramming. This will mean that tutoring needs will be identified quicker and more frequently.
    Nov 22 02:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally, This High-Yield Microcap Is Helping The FDA Cut Approval Time [View article]
    Goalkick9,

    The company pretty much advised that the profit would be muted this quarter. This is what I included in the article:

    "SLP has announced that its fiscal fourth quarter, ending in September 2013, will be its 46th profitable quarter in the last 48, but I suspect the salary expense will reduce that profit in this quarter and the next."

    Also in the conclusion:

    "From a timing point of view, it is possible that profits will suffer some until spring of 2014."

    I look at SLP as a long-term holding, with the expectation that in time their simulation software will be the standard for companies seeking approval from FDA, EPA and other agencies. That is a big deal, but not an overnight event. Also, the revenue that they do have is pretty stable with a high level of renewals. Actually, I had to decide for me and clients to wait for a couple earnings announcements that may be mundane, or go ahead and start collecting dividends and stake out our position. It trades pretty thinly and can get away pretty quickly, so I am happy with our stake. This time next year could find SLP as a double-digit stock, and I just don't see a lot of downside. In the meantime the yield is good.

    Just my opinion...

    Stan
    Nov 19 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally, This High-Yield Microcap Is Helping The FDA Cut Approval Time [View article]
    Douglas,

    I think the culture of the company is directed by the management, and the production of income for stockholders is part of that. Management salaries are pretty reasonable, but they do own 41% of the stock, so I think they rely on the dividends for income also. SLP also has a good cash horde and no debt if they want to kick start growth. Like I said, I do think growth acceleration will come, but at a steady and deliberate pace. I am mostly a long-term investor so that is all fine with me.

    Thanks for reading my article.

    Stan
    Nov 6 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally, This High-Yield Microcap Is Helping The FDA Cut Approval Time [View article]
    Goalkick

    Thanks. I have been buried with some consulting, and I have a few articles in the 90% stage, but really waiting for a few factors to play out to verify my thesis on these investments.

    I was involved in helping a huge investment bank with salvaging one of its "toxic assets" in 2008-2009. I am writing a novel, based on that experience...lots of intrigue and villains. Anyway, it has taken me from the SA articles.

    Stan
    Nov 6 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Microrecession Dead Cat Bounce? [View article]
    Besides the blatant political bias...the article is also has a faulty premise. A record number of companies are paying dividends, including irregular dividend amounts, rather than stable monthly payments. I would be shocked if there were not more dividend cuts.
    Oct 8 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Me Out To The Stock Game [View article]
    Awaken,

    You are absolutely correct. However, I think that mainstream Americans are under-invested in stocks according to historical standards, and ,with bond funds in 401k plans dropping due to rising interest rates, there is a likelihood of this money being diverted into the stock market. That will start the bubble and time to get out.
    Oct 6 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Debt Ceiling Is Not Lehman [View article]
    c18024

    Actually, I agree with the premise of the article that the differences between the politics-induced "crisis" is different than a real crisis.

    I also think that the comment about Cruz was out of place.

    However, regarding your comment about compromise, it is a fact that the GOP for 5 years have had a policy of opposing everything proposed by Obama, simply because it is Obama...they are against immigration and infrastructure bills, both which clearly would help the economy. I am against big government, but some things only government can accomplish. I also would make more money in the market if the no-sayers would get out of the way of constructive ideas.

    It appears that the Republicans prefer to slow growth to further their own political aspirations. Now they want to talk about compromise, when the reality is that they want to renegotiate an election that they lost. The way to eliminate laws is by legislative action, if you can get majority support, not by causing as much damage as possible until you get your way. The reality is they cannot get majority support for their policies. Despite the rhetoric that Obama is bad for business, I notice that each time the Republicans are thwarted in their attempts to change the way democracy works, the stock market goes up. I think that the financial markets would be very disturbed if, in fact, the president chose to "negotiate" under these circumstances, as the true nature of democracy will have been undermined and uncertainty with the new paradigm will create a flood to the exits. Just my opinion.
    Oct 5 03:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NetSol Technologies, Inc.: Is There Fire Behind That Smoke? [View article]
    Something that is not mentioned in the conversation is that NetSol is central to the auto leasing business, and, according to the CNBC Headline (9-3-2013): "Leasing at an all-time high. Average monthly lease payments are lower than purchase over life of a car." This is a shift associated with a cultural attitude of younger workers that is here to stay and NTWK is on the leading edge of that. Also, NTWK is growing double digits while some of its markets (Europe, Australia and Emerging Markets) have been in a lull. Can you imagine what is in store when those markets improve a little. That is why NTWK is adding 300 engineers to absorb future growth.

    Finally, now that the head of Congress has announced he will not stop the debt ceiling increase (October 17), I expect the markets to push higher until then. All the shorts should take their money and run before the squeeze hits.
    Oct 5 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NetSol Technologies, Inc.: Is There Fire Behind That Smoke? [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Personally I am loading up on cheap NTWK options at $10. Although a lot of companies play games with earnings reports, revenue and cash flow growth are hard to deny. The short squeeze should pay big time.
    Oct 4 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refreshing Our Best-Of-The-Best Dividend Portfolio [View article]
    I do not see any reason to change my opinion on RAS, and the drop in price looks like a buying opportunity for the long-term. Here is another SA article to review:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 2 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Triples And A Double; What's The Next Home Run? [View article]
    Good info.

    In video processing a better long-term value is AMBA, but PXLW looks like a good trading stock.

    Same goes for CAMP as a better long-term alternative to GSAT.

    Just my opinion.
    Sep 29 10:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CIBT Education Group Cashing In On Overseas Chinese Students [View article]
    I have owned this one for some years even though it has been dead money. Fact is, it has real value and the day will come when the stock price reflects that. Management is solid.

    Incidentally, the best of all is XUE...20% growth, no debt, $3.59 cash in the bank and stock price of $4.39! No brainer. Better Price to Earnings, Book and Sales than the others, also.
    Sep 29 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Oversold High Dividend Stock Goes Ex-Dividend This Week [View article]
    Thanks for the write up on MPW. Another article mentioning MPW was published on SA this weekend and the link is below. This article compares FAD (Funds Available for Distribution) for about a dozen Healthcare REITS. It is notable that in that analysis MPW ranks #1 in current FAD growth, #1 in lowest price to FAD valuation and #1 in highest yield. That is a best of breed trifecta in top growth, valuation and yield. It is probably undervalued as you purport.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 8 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Self-Evident Truth About Healthcare REIT Valuations [View article]
    galicianova,

    Healthcare REITs are very unloved right now, but for a long-term holding I am keeping MPW. I think it is more oversold than the others because of the public offering. Those institutional investors scooped up those shares at about 10% higher than current price less than a month ago. An article in SA today contends that it is undervalued:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Stan
    Sep 8 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Self-Evident Truth About Healthcare REIT Valuations [View article]
    Factoid,

    Thank you for a very informative and enlightening analysis. I own several of these, and I will offer some contrarian points for consideration.

    First, I believe the property type weightings are from asset value data (balance sheet) rather than revenue (income statement) from each asset type, although FAD starts with revenue. I think you will find that certain asset types contribute higher profit margins and a higher percentage of revenue, commensurate with risk.

    My personal opinion is that Senior Housing, currently the subject of a Congressional Committee concerned that many seniors are being priced out of the market by high rents, is quite vulnerable to pricing pressures, either from government intervention, but more so from low-cost, subsidized competition. The high valuations make the sector susceptible to a steeper fall...just my opinion. In conference calls, hospital CEOs articulate that the visibility of their rates is pretty clear now, after some years of concern after Obamacare first became law. The visibility for Senior Housing rates is less clear to me until this issue is resolved and solutions, if any, defined.

    I could quibble with the comment that loan income is a negative, especially when the majority of the loans outstanding are variable rate arrangements, as is the case with MPW, that will contribute higher income in a rising rate environment.

    Speaking of MPW, according to the tables, it has the highest current FAD growth, lowest price to FAD and the highest distribution yield of all the listed stocks, which apparently conflicts with the thesis that higher FAD growth deserves higher valuation. According to this analysis, MPW should be a screaming BUY. I do not think that MPW is being penalized so much for its loans or hospital business, as much as recent issuance of more shares (at a much higher price than today's, incidentally). I think that MPW is a bit of an aberration, as this one skews the analysis by a short-term oversold situation, and you are probably wise in excluding it from the comps.

    "For example; why does HR, with zero dividend growth over the last several years, sell at the highest current of 2013 price/FFO valuation and a below sector average yield? Why does OHI, which has out-performed the sector for several years when it comes to dividend growth, sell at the lowest 2013 price/FFO valuation and a well above sector average yield?"

    The subject of dividend growth is not as black and white as many think. Since they must distribute most of their income, when excess funds accumulate, REITs can either raise the distribution or issue more shares and keep the payout stable, or a combination. For instance, the MPW management strategy has been to utilize high funds growth to regularly issue more shares to obtain financing for accretive growth acquisitions, while maintaining coverage for a large but stagnant distribution. Income investors and traders do not like this, but high-margin business expansion can be a good thing in the long run. I think this may answer your question why some of the stocks with poor dividend growth are still valued generously.
    I do understand that you recognized up front that there were several factors that could modify the valuations. Having said that, I believe that your thesis makes good sense and accurately sheds light on some misunderstood valuations.
    Sep 8 02:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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