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Stanley Barton  

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  • Wendy's Remodeling Program Is A Worthwhile Investment [View article]
    If you like Wendy's you should love MHGU, a Wendy's franchisee with about 120 restaurants. It is building and remodeling locations, with a subsidy from Wendy's and sells for about 12 times trailing earnings, with guidance for 50% revenue and income growth. It trades pretty thinly, but one day the value will come through. It is the cheapest publicly-traded restaurant stock.
    Apr 18, 2014. 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Invest In Restaurant Tablet Transformations With NTN Buzztime [View article]
    Annual report indicates about twice as many terminations as installations in 2013...that is one reason for decreasing revenue. Also, looks like company capitalizes R & D costs...label it as "investments." If expensed, the loss would be about $2 million, not the reported $.4 million. May be the next big thing...but have my doubts that they are winning the battle over competition.

    What is better about the BEOND than competitors' product?

    I like pure play aspect, and short-term maybe they can make the next earnings report show real revenue and profit growth on BWW installations. Guess I better go to BWW and check out the tablet.
    Apr 3, 2014. 04:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Glimpse At Our Small Cap Biotechnology Portfolio [View article]

    Thanks for reading the article.

    I have been blessed to have had interesting opportunities in my investing career. I am not sure that going forward the old-school approach is going to be as successful, as talking heads on television seem to convince the investing public of many ideas that counter simple economics. Nonetheless, as Darrell Royal (Legendary U. of Texas coach) used to say..."you gotta dance with the one that brung ya."

    Best of luck

    Mar 15, 2014. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breaking Down Abstral Sales For Galena Biopharma [View article]
    Thanks for the article,

    However, I think we are all just guessing at the Abstral number right now. Nonetheless, I will take a wild stab, based on the 5% market share comment.

    GALE has indicated they consider the market share to be $400M annually, so I think that 5% equals $20MM or about $1.6MM per month. Here is my wild guess at gross sales:

    September $1.3MM (annnounced)
    October 1.4MM
    November 1.5MM
    December 1.6MM (5% market share)

    This is $4.5MM for the quarter, but GALE reports NET revenue (after discounts, royalty, etc.) so I am thinking about 70% of GROSS is about $3MM, or high end of company projection for the quarter.

    However, using this logic and extrapolating, GALE would exit 2014 with a market share of 18% and $27MM in net revenues. At 70% margin (per September sales data), the cash flow is $19mm for 2014, or about a half year of cash burn. I think this is conservative, as margins normally increase with volume and discounts are reduced after market share is taken. This also means that GALE would be cash flow positive in Q1 2015. If Neuvax and all other initiatives were totally cancelled, GALE would be earning about $.50 per share in 2015 on Abstral alone.

    Just my thoughts.
    Feb 23, 2014. 07:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Glimpse At Our Small Cap Biotechnology Portfolio [View article]
    Charles M.

    Every time a stock drops drastically, like DVAX after the FDA letter, a number of law firms launch "investigations" and sometimes actually pursue a case. Having been the plaintiff in some of these class-action cases, I can tell you that the shareholder rarely gets anything out of these, as the suits are either dropped or settled with the lawyers getting the settlement funds. I am not a lawyer, nor have I reviewed the cases, but from my experience, my guess is that these may cost DVAX $1-2MM to manage and settle. Not a huge issue, considering DVAX spends about $12MM on R&D each quarter. As a layman, I think it may be difficult for the law firms to prove that DVAX should have known that the FDA would not approve the submission, since it was a very close vote on safety and overwhelming approval of efficacy...but I guess it is a possibility. I think the clinical results and takeover possibilities will drive the stock price more than the lawsuits.

    Thanks for reading the article.

    Feb 17, 2014. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella Looks Like A Short [View article]

    Today GoPro announced plans for a public offering. Big capital influx to GoPro = expanded product offerings and aggressive marketing of cameras = exponential increases in business for AMBA.

    The squeeze is on
    Feb 7, 2014. 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15% Bump As Truett-Hurst Swings Into Profitability [View article]
    Thanks for the update.

    I was pleasantly surprised to see the strong sales growth. Frankly, I bought in some time ago because I considered THST to be "hidden value stock." Today it sells at $6 and has more than $3/share in cash, more than $2/share of wine in the cellar, and the 26 acres in Sonoma Valley on the books at only about $100k per acre. There is a $3.2MM (<$0.46 per share) mortgage on the land, that is due in 2022. Other debt is insignificant.

    I am happy to start looking at this one as a "Defensive" growth stock.
    Feb 7, 2014. 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella Looks Like A Short [View article]
    Lightened up after Google unexpected blip.

    Noticed when momentum started bringing it back SA started pumping this article. Momentum is too powerful in this one...right or wrong, it will not stay down. upcoming earnings day...30% revenue growth, PE 25, about $5 per share in cash, no debt.

    PE would be about 15 actually if AMBA did not plow so much cash back into R&D to stay ahead of competition. The reference to competition is to placate shareholders who may prefer not so much R&D...gotta think a squeeze is inevitable.

    Just my opinion.
    Feb 5, 2014. 03:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elecsys: A Compelling Micro Cap Strategically Positioned For Growth In The Internet Of Things [View article]
    My preference in the sector is MIXT. About the same price as ESYS, but more than twice as much cash flow per share, better balance sheet (about $2.82 per share in cash and only $ .24 per share in debt, while ESYS only has $ .13 in cash, but $ .71 in debt). ESYS for now has higher revenue growth (19% vs 11%, but most of MIXT is RECURRING revenue to build on in the future with high margins, since the sales costs have already been expended.

    Both look undervalued compared to the market.
    Jan 29, 2014. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Glimpse At Our Small Cap Biotechnology Portfolio [View article]

    Biocon Limited, the largest biotech distributor in India and Asia (market cap of 93B) mentioned yesterday in its quarterly report that there "has seen very enthusiastic uptake of Cytosorb filters, a novel therapy for sepsis that we had launched last quarter." Probably the reason for the jump today. Not typical for a giant international to mention such a small company product in its quarterly report. The link:

    Jan 22, 2014. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Glimpse At Our Small Cap Biotechnology Portfolio [View article]

    The price began jumping after the letter from the CEO on January 15. This article probably contributed some yesterday. Today's action is extreme...maybe a short squeeze. We are holding, since we are in for the long-term, but at this point I think a new investor might want to wait for this to settle back. CTSO still has 50% from here to meet the Zach's target of $.50 for this year, but it may take some months to get there.

    Glad your on board, and I hope that the CEO Chan was on track with his comments about the product getting traction and having to "ramp up" production.

    Jan 22, 2014. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Glimpse At Our Small Cap Biotechnology Portfolio [View article]

    Thanks for reading my article.

    Politics aside, it is always a consideration that reimbursement for treatments will be fair for new drugs or treatments. In that regard, I think it is fair to say that generic drugs, such as IG products, should continue to be preferred. Also, relatively cheap treatments by CTSO should not have problems with reimbursement, especially since more often than not this is an ICU treatment. DVAX is in the Hep B vaccine business, and preventive medicine is also favored under the Affordable Care Act. Cardica makes medical instruments that are less invasive and suitable for robotic surgery, so that should work with lower cost initiatives of the ACA, although subject to added medical instrument tax treatment. I am not sure about the final cost or reimbursement for GALE and CYTX, since these are new technologies and it is difficult to know how they will be reimbursed.

    Hope this helps,

    Jan 22, 2014. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Glimpse At Our Small Cap Biotechnology Portfolio [View article]

    IG has doubled in a few months, and is due for some consolidation. I think that if the FDA approvals do not start coming through in the next few months it will probably settle lower. However, we are holding...if they get two or three new drug approvals in a short time we would be chasing this one. I think eventually that will happen.

    Thanks for reading.

    Jan 21, 2014. 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fleetcor Is A Better Investment Than Visa And MasterCard [View article]
    The Walmart connection is well known and the Amex competition has not stopped double digit growth in GDO revenues, even though it has been around for more than a year. AMEX is losing that war, because GDOT has more options for consumers. That said, AMEX is still doing really well, which should indicate good earnings for GDOT on Jan. 30.

    One of these prepaid cards will be in bed with WMT so ask yourself, would you rather it be the one you own or a different one? GDOT is in Kroger, Walgreen, etc. and in last earnings report indicated its exposure to WMT is decreasing each month.

    Congrats on good move in traditional card stocks today.
    Jan 17, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fleetcor Is A Better Investment Than Visa And MasterCard [View article]
    Thanks for the article, but I can't get on board. If I am going into a card investment it is GreenDot (GDOT) as valuation is better than those mentioned here. For instance, GDOT is about $24 per share with $3 in cash flow, as opposed to FLT with $110 per share and cash flow of $3.80. FLT growth consensus is higher and all have competition problems, but at least GDOT has a technology moat.

    Just my opinion.
    Jan 15, 2014. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment