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  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    dwallam

    Attached is the company presentation indicating the "Total" cash costs per ounce at the La Negra mine as $6.43 and the Shafter mine as $10.00:

    http://bit.ly/178l4qJ

    If we use the method described in the article the 2012 all inclusive cash cost should be about $20. If we use the cash flow method, the cash costs would be about $17. You can take the time to calculate with more precision by getting the info from the company website. The cost should be better in 2013 as the company had substantial costs associated with the Shafter start up.

    Hope this helps.

    Stan
    Apr 19 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    Rmuthup

    When most miners report the cost of production, they basically are reporting only labor, material and equipment to get the ounces out of the ground and processed, not including their land costs, exploration costs, taxes, general, administrative and sales costs, etc. In many cases this is single-digit or even negative. The costs mentioned for miners in the article include all those costs. Having said that, the Shafter cost should be pretty low, as the grade of silver is comparatively high and the land was purchased basically at a distress sale, with much equipment in place from previous owners.

    Hope this helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    dwdallam

    I think that there are 3 primary reasons for the sell off:

    1. All small miners have sold off - see GLDX ETF chart
    2. The company announced an 8 for 1 reverse stock split, which did not sit well with investors.
    3. The production that began last December in the Shafter mine in Texas has been snake-bitten by equipment problems, labor issues, management changes, etc. That is why I want to visit that mine to see for myself if issues are resolved.

    Even at current production levels, I think this one is cheap.

    Hope that helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    cssmith

    Thank you for the kind words.

    I am not immune to the romance of silver investing, even though your assessment of the miners is probably accurate. I do not think that the silver price will drop past $22 or so. Anything under that could generate a rebound. Endeavor Silver stops selling the metal when the price gets too low, and others may decide to join in if prices are substantially below a profit level. They only have so many ounces to sell, so it does not make sense to give away the ounces at below break-even if they think a rebound is in sight.

    Of course, anything is possible, and that is just my gut feel. I have submitted to SA an article with a more thorough analysis of the likely bottom for gold and I am assuming that silver will follow along in the short-term. Maybe they will approve the article.

    Hope that helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    dwdallam

    If they produce a positive NI 43-101 report, it may be the last positive thing that they do. The market may bid up shares on the news, but I think the old philosophy of "sell on news" applies in this case.

    The company is probably hoping for a buyout more than actually going into production. If they cannot get financing to build out production facilities and no buyout, they have about $1MM to burn, which could be gone pretty quickly....and then they are broke. It costs a lot to do the drilling and hire a firm to produce the reserve analysis. El Tigre issued an optimistic report that did not meet securities rules for disclosure, possibly gambling that they could get enough interest in the company to sell some shares for cash.

    The tailings contain 2 or 3 ounces per ton, while other Mexican miners like Excellon Resources or Aurcana may have 10 - 20 ounces per ton and production equipment in place. I just prefer producers over explorers. Maybe a smaller payoff, but less risk.

    Hope that helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    DrBill

    I agree and actually bought a little more also, just to round up my lot per the reverse split. I think the concern over the split is ridiculous, as it does not change any fundamentals. I also think there is some frustration that the Shafter mine in Texas is getting a slow production start, and I am planning a trip there to see for myself if there are issues that I am not aware of. I am patient, and just as soon see them produce the silver after a bounce back in price anyway. The Mexican mine is reliable and studies seem to indicate that it is getting better I will produce an article after my visit to Shafter.

    Thanks for reading my article.

    Stan
    Apr 17 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    dwdallam

    Thanks for reading my article.

    I think that banks are not loaning to non-producing miners in the amounts necessary to allow them to buy equipment and start-up costs to go into production. El Tigre needs $5MM and was recently called on the carpet for not making proper disclosures...a red flag for lenders. I think that if they have enough cash to complete a NI 43-101 it is likely that they can prove profit potential, but it is a longshot that they actually will ever go into production. That is why I would consider selling El Tigre when they produce the NI 43-101, if that happens.

    Hope this helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
    jxio8423

    I am not an expert on medical technology, but I became interested in this area as my wife was looking for a non-invasive way to tighten some saggy skin under her chin. We looked into options and SLTM's Thermage radio-frequency system seemed to be preferred to the laser light treatments by her friends. We actually found another treatment that was very similar, and it was apparently considered better than the SLTM Thermage for faces and Thermage was superior for body areas, according to on-line reviews. I cannot say this is true, other than our dermatologist seemed to agree with all the above, and he offered several treatments. However, I think the original and most recognized is the Thermage brand, and marketing material for the other treatment compared it to Thermage. In fact, one competitor indicated that their treatment was especially effective when combined with Fraxel treatment, another SLTM brand. Having said that, I think the distinguishing factor may not be the technology itself as much as the superior brand recognition. Better technology may be available, but the SLTM head-start in getting its equipment into doctor offices provides some insulation.

    Many companies that deal with patents and development cost amortization, acquisitions and other factors that generate somewhat subjective evaluations can have big one-time fluctuations as those values are reassessed each quarter or year. That is why I said that the better method of evaluation is to look at the cash flow. The fact that about half of revenue is from recurring sales of disposables and maintenance provides a more reliable base for the cash flow generation. Having said that, I also have less comfort level with non-GAAP reporting. I also am not very impressed with the current cash flow and earnings, as much as the expectations that SLTM can increase those now that they seem to be solidly in positive cash flow mode.

    Hope this helps.

    Stan
    Apr 11 01:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
    Berloe,

    You are correct, and the crackdown on costs is not likely to affect the cosmetic area as much as some. However, I think that a general crackdown on healthcare costs could create collateral damage,. Those policies that actually pay some on these procedures may drop that coverage before other services in an effort to control premium increases. At any rate, I have been watching this stock and it seems to react to news about health cost controls like others, regardless of the real effect on it.

    Stan
    Mar 27 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    I noticed the typo on the ticker after the article was published.
    Mar 27 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
    Robert,

    Thanks for the insightful comment. It is likely that the demand will be there as a lot of people get older at the same time, but it is a good point that someone must pay for the services, medicines and devices. That opens the political debate. When I was an undergraduate at Southern Methodist University, a very conservative, Christian-based school, the Economics prof asked the students if they encountered a sick, poor person laying on the sidewalk, what would they do? The majority said they would step over him or go to the other side of the street...bums are responsible for their own problems.

    The reality, at least for now, is that basic services are provided and paid by some government entity when a poor person goes to the emergency room. However, some of the latest drugs are so pricey that it is naive toi think that just because a medical solution exists that people will have the money to take advantage of that. Cosmetic services such as those by SLTM are mostly optional, and the market is the middle-upper income sector. However, you have a point that if a family is paying through the nose for basic services, it is bound to eat into the budget for optional services.

    DHRM is in a different situation, as the Peoples Republic of China is very much controlling healthcare in that country, and DHRM is focusing on working with the government to make sure that their products are the easiest option for consumers.

    Thanks for the comment, and perhaps this is a concept that will open other investment alternatives.

    Stan
    Mar 27 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advice For The Lovelorn Investor: 2 Stocks That Cherish Shareholders [View article]
    Karl,

    The 2012 earnings report was about as expected. The distribution agreement for the alcohol testing equipment is a positive, but I do not expect a huge impact from this. However, it does support my expectation that PMD will continue to look for ways to expand and grow.

    For me, the dividend is the main attraction, and if it is sustainable. The idea of the article is that the company is concerned about keeping its commitment to shareholders, and that maintaining and increasing the dividend is a priority is indicative of that attitude. Having said that, I do believe the current yield is safe, but I do not think that PMD will increase the dividend until the costs of the new technology and its success are clearly determined.

    From a technical point of view, the stock reacted a little negatively to the start up cost impact in the 4th quarter, so the "cup and handle" set up did not materialize. The stock is sitting on its 200-day moving average, where it typically has rebounded. With a 5% dividend yield, I do not expect it to drop much further unless the general market collapses.

    For the long term, I continue to think that drug testing has some opportunities for growth, as mentioned in the article.

    Hope that helps,

    Stan
    Mar 24 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSI Industries: An Overlooked Industrial Stock For Growth And Income [View article]
    TakeFive

    I agree...not a good idea to try to "catch a falling knife" they say. However, WSCI gapped up from $5 on June 20, 2012 and the recent drop filled in that gap. That is often the point that represents solid support. The market in general is ripe for a drop, but long-term I do not mind getting the dividend yield while waiting....not many alternatives right now. I added at $5.05 as I am short on industrials in the diversified portfolio.

    Stan
    Mar 21 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSI Industries: An Overlooked Industrial Stock For Growth And Income [View article]
    Karl,

    The drop in income was expected, but the market reaction was not. The company had warned that the energy business was soft and I mentioned in the article that the latest report should be the "trough" in the earnings reports. However, the guidance is for only slow improvement, and it looks like some traders are impatient. As for me, the current yield is 3%, and I expect the company to aggressively pursue other large customers, given that the manufacturing capacity is coming on-line. Any progress on that front would cause a pop, in my opinion. In the meantime, I think the yield justifies holding. With many micro-caps selling close to highs with big PE's, WSCI may be the best kind of opportunity to get value and income, which was the original thesis....it only looks better now.

    Hope this helps,

    Stan
    Mar 20 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sandstorm Gold Plunge: Warning Or Opportunity? [View article]
    CoolSoupy

    This may be a restriction of your broker. The trade described is an actual trade in our non-IRA account. IRA accounts require full stock value.

    Thanks for reading my article.

    Stan
    Mar 5 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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