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Stanley Barton

 
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  • Derby Extra: Updating The Angles On Our Horse Racing Investments [View article]
    Thesavvyinvestor

    I have loved horse racing longer than the stock market...which is five decades. I took the Delta Queen paddle-wheeler from Cincinnati to Louisville for the Derby a few years ago. The only major US track I have not been to during racing season is Saratoga and I think I may go this summer.

    To appreciate the sport, it helps to understand the factors that go into handicapping, and in the computer age it is easier than in the past. Unfortunately, my grandsons do not have the patience to wait 25 minutes or more between races...they are used to instant action of video games. It requires a lot of thought and analysis to pick both stocks and horses, and it is lost on many in the general public in both cases...to their detriment.

    Thanks for reading my article.

    Stan
    May 4 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    A Trautman

    Thanks for reading my article. I should mention that I own call options on PZG. I think it has legitimate resources, although the report of a billion in cash flow from San Miguel is based on resources, none of which meet the requirements to be called "reserves" as explained in this article. It also uses $29 silver, which is $5 more than the current price. It will also will take $500MM to start mining and processing these resources. Therefore, the current market value of the company is $240MM and so the present value is actually maybe triple that in theory. PZG in very rough numbers is running through about $16MM a year ($12MM in exploration and $4MM in overhead). It has $16MM in current assets. I think PZG can continue to sell assets to get cash but it needs to be acquired in the next two years or this company will be a fire sale.

    I think there is not much likelihood that they will be acquired this year, as all the miners are treading water until prices improve. However, I do think that 2014 could be the year for both price acceleration in silver and acquisition activity. I am using the Jan 15 calls at $.35 per contract. My thought is that by then PZG will be acquired on good terms or sold off for peanuts. At any rate, I can only lose $.35 and possibly gain 10 times that in an acquisition.

    This is a very speculative company, but in the right economic environment it could be one of the more desirable targets for acquisition. It is my only silver explorer investment and it is quite small.

    Hope that helps.

    Stan
    Apr 29 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    You can go to this site and read the various articles, whose headlines indicate the subject of share consolidation. Essentially it is an 8 for 1 reverse split, intended to help the stock qualify for more institutional investors that avoid "penny" stocks.

    http://yhoo.it/10Agt1H

    It is hard to say if this will help the stock price or not. Frequently, in these cases, the stock price drops a little immediately after the consolidation and then rebounds higher.
    Apr 24 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    SeeTheTrees

    1. I am not sure of the 15:1 ratio, as the ratio was distorted for years by the 1979 attempt of the Hunt Bros. to corner the silver market, sending it to $95 per once. However, in the past 2 years silver has declined 15% more than gold, so I would say that silver could improve 15% more than gold, based on that perspective.

    2. In my opinion, gold enjoys more speculative play as a hedge against paper money collapse, inflation and world doom. Also, I think countries buy more gold,. as it is accepted more widely and is more easily stored and delivered. Personally, I think silver is less likely to become a bubble, as about half is used in industrial use, as opposed to gold.

    3. If you do not trust managements, the ETF is one way to play silver. I personally prefer to take the risk on silver mining companies as they are more leveraged and likely to get better appreciation with a silver rebound, and maybe even pay a dividend. Of course, I have a hoard of scrap sterling silver hollowware accumulated over the years on Ebay and garage sales at an average price of about $6 per ounce. I store it in pacific cloth with my wife's out of season clothes and shoes at a storage facility. Something like that may be the best way to assure that you own the silver you pay for.

    Thanks for reading my article.

    Stan
    Apr 22 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    dwallam

    Attached is the company presentation indicating the "Total" cash costs per ounce at the La Negra mine as $6.43 and the Shafter mine as $10.00:

    http://bit.ly/178l4qJ

    If we use the method described in the article the 2012 all inclusive cash cost should be about $20. If we use the cash flow method, the cash costs would be about $17. You can take the time to calculate with more precision by getting the info from the company website. The cost should be better in 2013 as the company had substantial costs associated with the Shafter start up.

    Hope this helps.

    Stan
    Apr 19 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    Rmuthup

    When most miners report the cost of production, they basically are reporting only labor, material and equipment to get the ounces out of the ground and processed, not including their land costs, exploration costs, taxes, general, administrative and sales costs, etc. In many cases this is single-digit or even negative. The costs mentioned for miners in the article include all those costs. Having said that, the Shafter cost should be pretty low, as the grade of silver is comparatively high and the land was purchased basically at a distress sale, with much equipment in place from previous owners.

    Hope this helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    dwdallam

    I think that there are 3 primary reasons for the sell off:

    1. All small miners have sold off - see GLDX ETF chart
    2. The company announced an 8 for 1 reverse stock split, which did not sit well with investors.
    3. The production that began last December in the Shafter mine in Texas has been snake-bitten by equipment problems, labor issues, management changes, etc. That is why I want to visit that mine to see for myself if issues are resolved.

    Even at current production levels, I think this one is cheap.

    Hope that helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    cssmith

    Thank you for the kind words.

    I am not immune to the romance of silver investing, even though your assessment of the miners is probably accurate. I do not think that the silver price will drop past $22 or so. Anything under that could generate a rebound. Endeavor Silver stops selling the metal when the price gets too low, and others may decide to join in if prices are substantially below a profit level. They only have so many ounces to sell, so it does not make sense to give away the ounces at below break-even if they think a rebound is in sight.

    Of course, anything is possible, and that is just my gut feel. I have submitted to SA an article with a more thorough analysis of the likely bottom for gold and I am assuming that silver will follow along in the short-term. Maybe they will approve the article.

    Hope that helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    dwdallam

    If they produce a positive NI 43-101 report, it may be the last positive thing that they do. The market may bid up shares on the news, but I think the old philosophy of "sell on news" applies in this case.

    The company is probably hoping for a buyout more than actually going into production. If they cannot get financing to build out production facilities and no buyout, they have about $1MM to burn, which could be gone pretty quickly....and then they are broke. It costs a lot to do the drilling and hire a firm to produce the reserve analysis. El Tigre issued an optimistic report that did not meet securities rules for disclosure, possibly gambling that they could get enough interest in the company to sell some shares for cash.

    The tailings contain 2 or 3 ounces per ton, while other Mexican miners like Excellon Resources or Aurcana may have 10 - 20 ounces per ton and production equipment in place. I just prefer producers over explorers. Maybe a smaller payoff, but less risk.

    Hope that helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    DrBill

    I agree and actually bought a little more also, just to round up my lot per the reverse split. I think the concern over the split is ridiculous, as it does not change any fundamentals. I also think there is some frustration that the Shafter mine in Texas is getting a slow production start, and I am planning a trip there to see for myself if there are issues that I am not aware of. I am patient, and just as soon see them produce the silver after a bounce back in price anyway. The Mexican mine is reliable and studies seem to indicate that it is getting better I will produce an article after my visit to Shafter.

    Thanks for reading my article.

    Stan
    Apr 17 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
    dwdallam

    Thanks for reading my article.

    I think that banks are not loaning to non-producing miners in the amounts necessary to allow them to buy equipment and start-up costs to go into production. El Tigre needs $5MM and was recently called on the carpet for not making proper disclosures...a red flag for lenders. I think that if they have enough cash to complete a NI 43-101 it is likely that they can prove profit potential, but it is a longshot that they actually will ever go into production. That is why I would consider selling El Tigre when they produce the NI 43-101, if that happens.

    Hope this helps,

    Stan
    Apr 17 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
    jxio8423

    I am not an expert on medical technology, but I became interested in this area as my wife was looking for a non-invasive way to tighten some saggy skin under her chin. We looked into options and SLTM's Thermage radio-frequency system seemed to be preferred to the laser light treatments by her friends. We actually found another treatment that was very similar, and it was apparently considered better than the SLTM Thermage for faces and Thermage was superior for body areas, according to on-line reviews. I cannot say this is true, other than our dermatologist seemed to agree with all the above, and he offered several treatments. However, I think the original and most recognized is the Thermage brand, and marketing material for the other treatment compared it to Thermage. In fact, one competitor indicated that their treatment was especially effective when combined with Fraxel treatment, another SLTM brand. Having said that, I think the distinguishing factor may not be the technology itself as much as the superior brand recognition. Better technology may be available, but the SLTM head-start in getting its equipment into doctor offices provides some insulation.

    Many companies that deal with patents and development cost amortization, acquisitions and other factors that generate somewhat subjective evaluations can have big one-time fluctuations as those values are reassessed each quarter or year. That is why I said that the better method of evaluation is to look at the cash flow. The fact that about half of revenue is from recurring sales of disposables and maintenance provides a more reliable base for the cash flow generation. Having said that, I also have less comfort level with non-GAAP reporting. I also am not very impressed with the current cash flow and earnings, as much as the expectations that SLTM can increase those now that they seem to be solidly in positive cash flow mode.

    Hope this helps.

    Stan
    Apr 11 01:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
    Berloe,

    You are correct, and the crackdown on costs is not likely to affect the cosmetic area as much as some. However, I think that a general crackdown on healthcare costs could create collateral damage,. Those policies that actually pay some on these procedures may drop that coverage before other services in an effort to control premium increases. At any rate, I have been watching this stock and it seems to react to news about health cost controls like others, regardless of the real effect on it.

    Stan
    Mar 27 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    I noticed the typo on the ticker after the article was published.
    Mar 27 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
    Robert,

    Thanks for the insightful comment. It is likely that the demand will be there as a lot of people get older at the same time, but it is a good point that someone must pay for the services, medicines and devices. That opens the political debate. When I was an undergraduate at Southern Methodist University, a very conservative, Christian-based school, the Economics prof asked the students if they encountered a sick, poor person laying on the sidewalk, what would they do? The majority said they would step over him or go to the other side of the street...bums are responsible for their own problems.

    The reality, at least for now, is that basic services are provided and paid by some government entity when a poor person goes to the emergency room. However, some of the latest drugs are so pricey that it is naive toi think that just because a medical solution exists that people will have the money to take advantage of that. Cosmetic services such as those by SLTM are mostly optional, and the market is the middle-upper income sector. However, you have a point that if a family is paying through the nose for basic services, it is bound to eat into the budget for optional services.

    DHRM is in a different situation, as the Peoples Republic of China is very much controlling healthcare in that country, and DHRM is focusing on working with the government to make sure that their products are the easiest option for consumers.

    Thanks for the comment, and perhaps this is a concept that will open other investment alternatives.

    Stan
    Mar 27 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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