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  • Ambarella - Momentum In Stock Outpaces Operational Improvements For This Well-Led Company [View article]
    Weird...author likes SODA with similar growth rates and $.30/per share in cash flow at $53, but is cautious about AMBA with$.73 in cash flow and $25 per share.

    AMBA net income would be about $2 per share without R & D expense, as the company is ramping up to introduce more industry-best products, and SODA is a one-gadget wonder.

    Oh well...good luck to all, but I know which horse I would bet on.
    Dec 9 05:54 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breaking Down Abstral Sales For Galena Biopharma [View article]
    Thanks for the article,

    However, I think we are all just guessing at the Abstral number right now. Nonetheless, I will take a wild stab, based on the 5% market share comment.

    GALE has indicated they consider the market share to be $400M annually, so I think that 5% equals $20MM or about $1.6MM per month. Here is my wild guess at gross sales:

    September $1.3MM (annnounced)
    October 1.4MM
    November 1.5MM
    December 1.6MM (5% market share)

    This is $4.5MM for the quarter, but GALE reports NET revenue (after discounts, royalty, etc.) so I am thinking about 70% of GROSS is about $3MM, or high end of company projection for the quarter.

    However, using this logic and extrapolating, GALE would exit 2014 with a market share of 18% and $27MM in net revenues. At 70% margin (per September sales data), the cash flow is $19mm for 2014, or about a half year of cash burn. I think this is conservative, as margins normally increase with volume and discounts are reduced after market share is taken. This also means that GALE would be cash flow positive in Q1 2015. If Neuvax and all other initiatives were totally cancelled, GALE would be earning about $.50 per share in 2015 on Abstral alone.

    Just my thoughts.
    Feb 23 07:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella: 5 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month [View article]
    Just announced blowout earnings and institutional ownership is up 6%. Look at how many shares the insiders are holding on to...
    Dec 19 06:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Disasters Aren't The Only Threats To Universal Insurance Holdings [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    I am long both UVE and HCI and think that both are undervalued in today's market by several standards. For example, both have single digit PE's, and double-digit EPS growth projections. The sales to book a little over 2 is hardly what I consider "pricey." It should be noted that revenue figures are net of reinsurance premiums. The concern I have always had about HCI is that its reinsurance was thin compared to UVE. The market undervalues these companies because of the hurricane threat, but the reinsurance policies of these two greatly reduce that concern for me. As for revenue declining, UVE wrote 48% more policies in the latest quarter year over year, although it has the goal of reducing exposure in Florida and expanding in less disaster-prone states. The result is lower average premium, but less risk and future reduction in reinsurance costs. Incidentally, I also hold CRD.A (Crawford & Company) in my portfolios, as it stands to benefit from hurricanes and other disasters.

    Regarding the investment portfolio, my original investment in UVE was because the financial growth and stability of this one's operations were disguised by huge investment losses resulting from the management going all-in on precious metal stocks at their peak. While I doubted the intelligence and gambler-mentality of the management for this decision, I suspected that once these investment losses were turned around, the quarterly comps would show huge improvements, which is happening.

    In summary, the low valuation, stock buy-backs, tailwinds from improved investment portfolio, reduction in risk exposure, probable dividend hikes and buy out potential make UVE a reasonable and conservative investment candidate in my estimation.
    Jun 22 10:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Old School Look At The Zero Interest Rate, And Its Influence On Stock Investing [View article]
    debrasev

    Thanks for the comments. Money managers receive a % fee based on the amount they "manage" in a portfolio. If they just leave things in cash, clients may think they are not earning their keep. If they have no ideas, they can dump money into treasury bonds and call it an investment. Intent is to park the money and if the interest rates never change it is fairly risk-less short-term.
    Mar 17 02:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Affair With Silver ... And Where It Goes From Here [View article]
    Dak,
    Thanks for the kind words.

    I have somehow become semi-fanatic. I actually have investigated the purchase of 82 acres of wasteland in the Big Bend country of Texas near the Shafter Mine. Actually, the land has an old adobe mine store and storage building on it, as well as creek frontage. My idea is to establish a store with sandwiches, snacks and beer for the miners. The only currency accepted would be physical silver. I am thinking they can pay in advance and a one-ounce token would buy them 3 days of goods: a cup of coffee and a donut, a box lunch for the mine and one beer after work each day. If they want something more they can pay for a tab at the store. We would probably have pool tables, video games and music for after hours, as well as dinner specials. I could work with Aurcana to make the tokens and give them to miners as safety awards, bonuses, etc. The Shafer Mine Store and Honky-tonk, LLC may need partners that would receive distributions in pure silver.

    My wife, a current resident of a high-rise suite in large cosmopolitan city, is not too keen on the idea.

    Thanks for your comments
    Feb 15 03:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wendy's Remodeling Program Is A Worthwhile Investment [View article]
    If you like Wendy's you should love MHGU, a Wendy's franchisee with about 120 restaurants. It is building and remodeling locations, with a subsidy from Wendy's and sells for about 12 times trailing earnings, with guidance for 50% revenue and income growth. It trades pretty thinly, but one day the value will come through. It is the cheapest publicly-traded restaurant stock.
    Apr 18 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella Looks Like A Short [View article]
    Lightened up after Google announcement...an unexpected blip.

    Noticed when momentum started bringing it back SA started pumping this article. Momentum is too powerful in this one...right or wrong, it will not stay down.

    FURTHERMORE..at upcoming earnings day...30% revenue growth, PE 25, about $5 per share in cash, no debt.

    PE would be about 15 actually if AMBA did not plow so much cash back into R&D to stay ahead of competition. The reference to competition is to placate shareholders who may prefer not so much R&D...gotta think a squeeze is inevitable.

    Just my opinion.
    Feb 5 03:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Sale Bargain: NetSol Technologies [View article]
    trackxyj

    Thanks for reading the article and for your comments. Actually, I agree that NetSol has probably outgrown the auditor, which specializes in smaller companies and has a Pakistan background. Like I said, the company culture is relationships, which is a virtue when operating in developing markets, and the management is being true to form with sticking with a small auditor, right or wrong. As for the short sellers implication that there is some collusion because the principal of the auditor and NTWK management both belong to a Pakistan development council...well, kind of like saying there is something fishy because two companies both belong to the Chamber of Commerce.
    Dec 30 11:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Self-Evident Truth About Healthcare REIT Valuations [View article]
    Factoid,

    Thank you for a very informative and enlightening analysis. I own several of these, and I will offer some contrarian points for consideration.

    First, I believe the property type weightings are from asset value data (balance sheet) rather than revenue (income statement) from each asset type, although FAD starts with revenue. I think you will find that certain asset types contribute higher profit margins and a higher percentage of revenue, commensurate with risk.

    My personal opinion is that Senior Housing, currently the subject of a Congressional Committee concerned that many seniors are being priced out of the market by high rents, is quite vulnerable to pricing pressures, either from government intervention, but more so from low-cost, subsidized competition. The high valuations make the sector susceptible to a steeper fall...just my opinion. In conference calls, hospital CEOs articulate that the visibility of their rates is pretty clear now, after some years of concern after Obamacare first became law. The visibility for Senior Housing rates is less clear to me until this issue is resolved and solutions, if any, defined.

    I could quibble with the comment that loan income is a negative, especially when the majority of the loans outstanding are variable rate arrangements, as is the case with MPW, that will contribute higher income in a rising rate environment.

    Speaking of MPW, according to the tables, it has the highest current FAD growth, lowest price to FAD and the highest distribution yield of all the listed stocks, which apparently conflicts with the thesis that higher FAD growth deserves higher valuation. According to this analysis, MPW should be a screaming BUY. I do not think that MPW is being penalized so much for its loans or hospital business, as much as recent issuance of more shares (at a much higher price than today's, incidentally). I think that MPW is a bit of an aberration, as this one skews the analysis by a short-term oversold situation, and you are probably wise in excluding it from the comps.

    "For example; why does HR, with zero dividend growth over the last several years, sell at the highest current of 2013 price/FFO valuation and a below sector average yield? Why does OHI, which has out-performed the sector for several years when it comes to dividend growth, sell at the lowest 2013 price/FFO valuation and a well above sector average yield?"

    The subject of dividend growth is not as black and white as many think. Since they must distribute most of their income, when excess funds accumulate, REITs can either raise the distribution or issue more shares and keep the payout stable, or a combination. For instance, the MPW management strategy has been to utilize high funds growth to regularly issue more shares to obtain financing for accretive growth acquisitions, while maintaining coverage for a large but stagnant distribution. Income investors and traders do not like this, but high-margin business expansion can be a good thing in the long run. I think this may answer your question why some of the stocks with poor dividend growth are still valued generously.
    I do understand that you recognized up front that there were several factors that could modify the valuations. Having said that, I believe that your thesis makes good sense and accurately sheds light on some misunderstood valuations.
    Sep 8 02:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Mid-Year Precious Metals Update And What's Next [View article]
    Joe

    Thanks for the comment.

    FCX announces quarterly results on Thursday. Analysts almost unanimously rate FCX a BUY. This is despite the fact that they dropped their average earnings estimates from about $.95 to $.84, without changing their BUY rating. I think this is because FCX is fundamentally a great long-term buy, and they want to set the bar low so that FCX can clear it. For that reason, FCX may get a pop from the earnings report, but if FCX cannot clear the bar, the analysts ratings will start dropping and the stock will go with it.

    I myself am going to wait for the earnings to see how this goes, and I also want to listen to the conference call for clues about Indonesia and other operations. I like the Bernard Baruch philosophy about guessing where bottoms are in stocks, "you take the bottom 10% and the top 10%, and I'll take the 80% in between."
    Jul 16 03:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    I am long KNDI, but I have sold call options as I expect it to drop to $15 or so to "fill the gap" technically. I think the long-term opportunity is great, if Chinese consumers actually start buying the cars. I do not know exactly why virtually the only car sales are to the car-share program...maybe someone can enlighten me on that. Is there some restriction that I am not seeing? Also, it appears that the sales in June dropped from about 1500 in April and May to about 1000 in June. The stock needs to accelerate growth to justify valuation and it looks like the car-share sales may have peaked, and consumer sales must pick up the slack. Nonetheless, after the gap is filled, I am buying more...that's the launching pad.
    Aug 14 11:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: Concerns Over Recent 10-Q Have No Merit [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I am still long Kandi as a long-term investment, but took the opportunity last week to take some profits.

    Frankly, I was stunned by the market reaction to the sales growth. It was already public knowledge that the company had sold about 3200 cars in the first two months of the quarter, so the 4100 number represents a drop back to only 900 or so in the third month of the quarter. This is an unexplained decline, and possibly a sign of things to come. I thought the smart money would immediately recognize that and punish the stock. I was pleasantly surprised when it went ballistic, although it did the same thing last winter and then collapsed. The Carshare deal is good for now; however, the company needs to be able to establish strong sales directly with Chinese consumers to meet my long-term goals, and for now it appears there is little indication that KNDI is gaining traction in that area.

    With the subsidies, I think eventually KNDI will get the consumers, but it will take time. I was very pleased to see that they actually did collect the subsidy money...one never knows in the Chinese market, and it was one of the risk factors I was concerned about when adding this one to client portfolios.
    Jul 24 12:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Debt Ceiling Is Not Lehman [View article]
    c18024

    Actually, I agree with the premise of the article that the differences between the politics-induced "crisis" is different than a real crisis.

    I also think that the comment about Cruz was out of place.

    However, regarding your comment about compromise, it is a fact that the GOP for 5 years have had a policy of opposing everything proposed by Obama, simply because it is Obama...they are against immigration and infrastructure bills, both which clearly would help the economy. I am against big government, but some things only government can accomplish. I also would make more money in the market if the no-sayers would get out of the way of constructive ideas.

    It appears that the Republicans prefer to slow growth to further their own political aspirations. Now they want to talk about compromise, when the reality is that they want to renegotiate an election that they lost. The way to eliminate laws is by legislative action, if you can get majority support, not by causing as much damage as possible until you get your way. The reality is they cannot get majority support for their policies. Despite the rhetoric that Obama is bad for business, I notice that each time the Republicans are thwarted in their attempts to change the way democracy works, the stock market goes up. I think that the financial markets would be very disturbed if, in fact, the president chose to "negotiate" under these circumstances, as the true nature of democracy will have been undermined and uncertainty with the new paradigm will create a flood to the exits. Just my opinion.
    Oct 5 03:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Triples And A Double; What's The Next Home Run? [View article]
    Good info.

    In video processing a better long-term value is AMBA, but PXLW looks like a good trading stock.

    Same goes for CAMP as a better long-term alternative to GSAT.

    Just my opinion.
    Sep 29 10:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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