An Old School Look At The Zero Interest Rate, And Its Influence On Stock Investing [View article]
debrasev
Thanks for the comments. Money managers receive a % fee based on the amount they "manage" in a portfolio. If they just leave things in cash, clients may think they are not earning their keep. If they have no ideas, they can dump money into treasury bonds and call it an investment. Intent is to park the money and if the interest rates never change it is fairly risk-less short-term.
My Affair With Silver ... And Where It Goes From Here [View article]
Dak, Thanks for the kind words.
I have somehow become semi-fanatic. I actually have investigated the purchase of 82 acres of wasteland in the Big Bend country of Texas near the Shafter Mine. Actually, the land has an old adobe mine store and storage building on it, as well as creek frontage. My idea is to establish a store with sandwiches, snacks and beer for the miners. The only currency accepted would be physical silver. I am thinking they can pay in advance and a one-ounce token would buy them 3 days of goods: a cup of coffee and a donut, a box lunch for the mine and one beer after work each day. If they want something more they can pay for a tab at the store. We would probably have pool tables, video games and music for after hours, as well as dinner specials. I could work with Aurcana to make the tokens and give them to miners as safety awards, bonuses, etc. The Shafer Mine Store and Honky-tonk, LLC may need partners that would receive distributions in pure silver.
My wife, a current resident of a high-rise suite in large cosmopolitan city, is not too keen on the idea.
Our Mid-Year Precious Metals Update And What's Next [View article]
Joe
Thanks for the comment.
FCX announces quarterly results on Thursday. Analysts almost unanimously rate FCX a BUY. This is despite the fact that they dropped their average earnings estimates from about $.95 to $.84, without changing their BUY rating. I think this is because FCX is fundamentally a great long-term buy, and they want to set the bar low so that FCX can clear it. For that reason, FCX may get a pop from the earnings report, but if FCX cannot clear the bar, the analysts ratings will start dropping and the stock will go with it.
I myself am going to wait for the earnings to see how this goes, and I also want to listen to the conference call for clues about Indonesia and other operations. I like the Bernard Baruch philosophy about guessing where bottoms are in stocks, "you take the bottom 10% and the top 10%, and I'll take the 80% in between."
Weighing The Week Ahead: What Lies Beyond The Cliff? [View article]
I am glad to see someone else who sees through the CNBC "Rise Above" campaign as propaganda for the far right. This move to grab all the disenchanted Fox viewers with Obama bashing under a supposedly noble slogan is worse than "Fair and Balanced." It represents the contamination of a decent financial network with blatant sensationalist manipulation of some who are depending on CNBC for reliable reporting. Might read my article on Yahoo:
High Heels And The Price Of Tea In China: A Caution For U.S. Consumers [View article]
I was in my early 30's back then and everything was a learning experience. As it happened, I made a bullish call on the market in my newsletter in August 1982 when the Dow was in the 800's and everything has gone up since. I think we did OK on Caressa, but I do not remember the details.
The "tipsheet" business was different back then because I had to pick the stock, write the newsletter, "paste it up," send it to printer for typeset and printing, fold, envelop and mail so the subscriber would get it on the 15th of each month. I had to pick the stocks a week ahead of that and do my best to make sure that they were good investments for at least a month. There were no internet alerts to let us take advantage of every blip in the chart. I was born too soon, I guess. Today it looks a bit easier.
The Sandstorm Gold Plunge: Warning Or Opportunity? [View article]
Thank you for the comment.
In the past two years it has been helpful to us to monitor AUQ as a representative of specifically small to mid-size Canadian miners. We mostly deal with those size firms. GDX is a better representation of larger global miners. "Benchmark" probably was not the correct word.
Having said that, you are correct that watching any single company will at times distort the action due to company-specific situations.
The Final Nails In The Dot-Com Coffin: Facebook And Apple [View article]
the rick,
Thanks for the comment and for reading my article.
I am sure I do not "get it" completely when it comes to technology, but do not be so sure that the elders in the market do not understand investing. I published a tip sheet before the internet and personal computers existed. It was in the Hulbert top 10, partly because of selections in options, which move very fast, then and now. I still play options, but selling them instead of buying them.
The difference between then and now is that I had a great advantage because I had to prepare manually point-and-figure charts for timing and thumb through Moody's volumes at the library to get fundamental information and news. If I worked harder than others at my DD and analysis, I could get an advantage, even though I had to "paste up" my newsletter, take it to the printer and send it by mail, which involved anticipating what the market would look like four or five days in the future as I wrote the newsletter. Nowadays, I could not get that advantage because in an hour on the internet any mediocre analyst can get info which is basically common knowledge. When everyone has the information, it is really not worth having for investment purposes.
I agree that the internet has provided a couple decades of great growth for the US, and our innovation has always pulled the US economy out of the doldrums. I am sure that will continue to happen...I just wish I could foresee what that innovation will be.
Copper May Outshine Gold In 2012: 4 Stocks To Benefit [View article]
Thank you for your comments.
I did not try to include all the good stocks in the article...just something for every level. My criteria for metal stock selection starts with a company producing some cash flow (the more the merrier) and has some aspect that can give it an appreciation pop. In the case of Orveda, the pop could come from a variety of events: turning a first-time profit, better results in Bolivia, buy-out potential, for instance. It is a bit of a contrarian pick as it has been a disappointment and I usually do not try to "catch a falling knife," but it seems that the value metrics give it a good safety net at the current depressed level.
Copper May Outshine Gold In 2012: 4 Stocks To Benefit [View article]
I actually include the links so I don't have to rewrite my position on gold, all the details of Revett investment rationale and explain the factors that keep gold stocks down. If they generate page views that is nice, but the income from these articles equals about 1/2 hour of pay from my day job...I do not write them for the money.
I like gold long-term, but short-term I think that gold needs to consolidate some.
Copper May Outshine Gold In 2012: 4 Stocks To Benefit [View article]
russellb73
We cannot buy them all. I decided to include only one large copper producer and from nearly every valuation method (PE, Book, Dividend, Sales, etc.) FCX compares better than SCCO. I am concerned that SCCO had a price supported by its big dividend, and when that was cut it is searching for its valuation level. For instance, it sells for 5 times its book value. Finally, I decided that the technical situation, as mentioned in the article, for FCX may make it more likely to move up faster.
Good luck and certainly if copper prices move up it is logical that SCCO will also.
Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
I am now holding a small position in RVM and I plan on holding for the long term. I do think that the latest announcement of additional structural damage at the Troy mine is very serious. Management is even shading the PR to open the door to possibly abandoning the mine. I do not think that will happen, but the layoffs probably mean no revenue this year and that likely means dead money investing in RVM this year.
Having said that, the company has some cash and potentially valuable properties. The silver is not going anywhere, so I can see RVM back around $5 in a few years. I would rather have a little spare money sitting in RVM than low interest money market or bonds during that period. Long-term, I think that silver will rebound, so the present price looks like good value from that perspective.
Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
Philip,
I did catch most of the RVM conference call. I must say it was not very encouraging. Basically, they put off providing any specifics about the Troy mine situation until a report they will issue at the end of the month. The fact that they are still "evaluating" tells me that the mine closure may extend longer than the current quarter. On the upside, RVM has not laid off anyone, and they responded that the problems were related to "logistics" of moving material, which presumably is better than a problem that would affect the resources. I guess we will have to wait until the end of the month, but I suspect that the report then will address delays in getting the mine open.
Rock Creek was not discussed, other than to say they are continuing their plan to develop that property. I think that everyone assumed that the Rock Creek progress depends first on the cash flow from the Troy mine, so that mine was the focus of the call.
I am holding RVM at this very beaten down price, but I think I am going to wait for the month-end report to decide what to do regarding this company.
Thanks for the insightful comment. It is likely that the demand will be there as a lot of people get older at the same time, but it is a good point that someone must pay for the services, medicines and devices. That opens the political debate. When I was an undergraduate at Southern Methodist University, a very conservative, Christian-based school, the Economics prof asked the students if they encountered a sick, poor person laying on the sidewalk, what would they do? The majority said they would step over him or go to the other side of the street...bums are responsible for their own problems.
The reality, at least for now, is that basic services are provided and paid by some government entity when a poor person goes to the emergency room. However, some of the latest drugs are so pricey that it is naive toi think that just because a medical solution exists that people will have the money to take advantage of that. Cosmetic services such as those by SLTM are mostly optional, and the market is the middle-upper income sector. However, you have a point that if a family is paying through the nose for basic services, it is bound to eat into the budget for optional services.
DHRM is in a different situation, as the Peoples Republic of China is very much controlling healthcare in that country, and DHRM is focusing on working with the government to make sure that their products are the easiest option for consumers.
Thanks for the comment, and perhaps this is a concept that will open other investment alternatives.
An Old School Look At The Zero Interest Rate, And Its Influence On Stock Investing [View article]
Thanks for the comments. Money managers receive a % fee based on the amount they "manage" in a portfolio. If they just leave things in cash, clients may think they are not earning their keep. If they have no ideas, they can dump money into treasury bonds and call it an investment. Intent is to park the money and if the interest rates never change it is fairly risk-less short-term.
My Affair With Silver ... And Where It Goes From Here [View article]
Thanks for the kind words.
I have somehow become semi-fanatic. I actually have investigated the purchase of 82 acres of wasteland in the Big Bend country of Texas near the Shafter Mine. Actually, the land has an old adobe mine store and storage building on it, as well as creek frontage. My idea is to establish a store with sandwiches, snacks and beer for the miners. The only currency accepted would be physical silver. I am thinking they can pay in advance and a one-ounce token would buy them 3 days of goods: a cup of coffee and a donut, a box lunch for the mine and one beer after work each day. If they want something more they can pay for a tab at the store. We would probably have pool tables, video games and music for after hours, as well as dinner specials. I could work with Aurcana to make the tokens and give them to miners as safety awards, bonuses, etc. The Shafer Mine Store and Honky-tonk, LLC may need partners that would receive distributions in pure silver.
My wife, a current resident of a high-rise suite in large cosmopolitan city, is not too keen on the idea.
Thanks for your comments
Our Mid-Year Precious Metals Update And What's Next [View article]
Thanks for the comment.
FCX announces quarterly results on Thursday. Analysts almost unanimously rate FCX a BUY. This is despite the fact that they dropped their average earnings estimates from about $.95 to $.84, without changing their BUY rating. I think this is because FCX is fundamentally a great long-term buy, and they want to set the bar low so that FCX can clear it. For that reason, FCX may get a pop from the earnings report, but if FCX cannot clear the bar, the analysts ratings will start dropping and the stock will go with it.
I myself am going to wait for the earnings to see how this goes, and I also want to listen to the conference call for clues about Indonesia and other operations. I like the Bernard Baruch philosophy about guessing where bottoms are in stocks, "you take the bottom 10% and the top 10%, and I'll take the 80% in between."
Weighing The Week Ahead: What Lies Beyond The Cliff? [View article]
http://yhoo.it/Ugw7qd
Why Nobody Is Talking About Social Security [View article]
I hear you, brother.
I was actually surprised in the chart of solutions prepared by the Congressional Budget Office that there was no mention of eliminating abuses.
Stan
High Heels And The Price Of Tea In China: A Caution For U.S. Consumers [View article]
The "tipsheet" business was different back then because I had to pick the stock, write the newsletter, "paste it up," send it to printer for typeset and printing, fold, envelop and mail so the subscriber would get it on the 15th of each month. I had to pick the stocks a week ahead of that and do my best to make sure that they were good investments for at least a month. There were no internet alerts to let us take advantage of every blip in the chart. I was born too soon, I guess. Today it looks a bit easier.
The Sandstorm Gold Plunge: Warning Or Opportunity? [View article]
In the past two years it has been helpful to us to monitor AUQ as a representative of specifically small to mid-size Canadian miners. We mostly deal with those size firms. GDX is a better representation of larger global miners. "Benchmark" probably was not the correct word.
Having said that, you are correct that watching any single company will at times distort the action due to company-specific situations.
Thanks for reading my article.
A Fresh Look At Energy Royalty Trusts In The Bargain Bin [View article]
Thanks for the pick. I will investigate this one. I like the dividend and the diversification of properties.
Incidentally, their office is 6 blocks from mine...maybe I will pay a neighborly visit.
The Final Nails In The Dot-Com Coffin: Facebook And Apple [View article]
Thanks for the comment and for reading my article.
I am sure I do not "get it" completely when it comes to technology, but do not be so sure that the elders in the market do not understand investing. I published a tip sheet before the internet and personal computers existed. It was in the Hulbert top 10, partly because of selections in options, which move very fast, then and now. I still play options, but selling them instead of buying them.
The difference between then and now is that I had a great advantage because I had to prepare manually point-and-figure charts for timing and thumb through Moody's volumes at the library to get fundamental information and news. If I worked harder than others at my DD and analysis, I could get an advantage, even though I had to "paste up" my newsletter, take it to the printer and send it by mail, which involved anticipating what the market would look like four or five days in the future as I wrote the newsletter. Nowadays, I could not get that advantage because in an hour on the internet any mediocre analyst can get info which is basically common knowledge. When everyone has the information, it is really not worth having for investment purposes.
I agree that the internet has provided a couple decades of great growth for the US, and our innovation has always pulled the US economy out of the doldrums. I am sure that will continue to happen...I just wish I could foresee what that innovation will be.
Copper May Outshine Gold In 2012: 4 Stocks To Benefit [View article]
I did not try to include all the good stocks in the article...just something for every level. My criteria for metal stock selection starts with a company producing some cash flow (the more the merrier) and has some aspect that can give it an appreciation pop. In the case of Orveda, the pop could come from a variety of events: turning a first-time profit, better results in Bolivia, buy-out potential, for instance. It is a bit of a contrarian pick as it has been a disappointment and I usually do not try to "catch a falling knife," but it seems that the value metrics give it a good safety net at the current depressed level.
Copper May Outshine Gold In 2012: 4 Stocks To Benefit [View article]
I like gold long-term, but short-term I think that gold needs to consolidate some.
Thanks for the comment.
Copper May Outshine Gold In 2012: 4 Stocks To Benefit [View article]
We cannot buy them all. I decided to include only one large copper producer and from nearly every valuation method (PE, Book, Dividend, Sales, etc.) FCX compares better than SCCO. I am concerned that SCCO had a price supported by its big dividend, and when that was cut it is searching for its valuation level. For instance, it sells for 5 times its book value. Finally, I decided that the technical situation, as mentioned in the article, for FCX may make it more likely to move up faster.
Good luck and certainly if copper prices move up it is logical that SCCO will also.
Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
Having said that, the company has some cash and potentially valuable properties. The silver is not going anywhere, so I can see RVM back around $5 in a few years. I would rather have a little spare money sitting in RVM than low interest money market or bonds during that period. Long-term, I think that silver will rebound, so the present price looks like good value from that perspective.
Stan
Beware The Trap Door Under Miners' Silver Reserves [View article]
I did catch most of the RVM conference call. I must say it was not very encouraging. Basically, they put off providing any specifics about the Troy mine situation until a report they will issue at the end of the month. The fact that they are still "evaluating" tells me that the mine closure may extend longer than the current quarter. On the upside, RVM has not laid off anyone, and they responded that the problems were related to "logistics" of moving material, which presumably is better than a problem that would affect the resources. I guess we will have to wait until the end of the month, but I suspect that the report then will address delays in getting the mine open.
Rock Creek was not discussed, other than to say they are continuing their plan to develop that property. I think that everyone assumed that the Rock Creek progress depends first on the cash flow from the Troy mine, so that mine was the focus of the call.
I am holding RVM at this very beaten down price, but I think I am going to wait for the month-end report to decide what to do regarding this company.
Hope this helps,
Stan
$2 Med Stocks With Macro Tailwinds [View article]
Thanks for the insightful comment. It is likely that the demand will be there as a lot of people get older at the same time, but it is a good point that someone must pay for the services, medicines and devices. That opens the political debate. When I was an undergraduate at Southern Methodist University, a very conservative, Christian-based school, the Economics prof asked the students if they encountered a sick, poor person laying on the sidewalk, what would they do? The majority said they would step over him or go to the other side of the street...bums are responsible for their own problems.
The reality, at least for now, is that basic services are provided and paid by some government entity when a poor person goes to the emergency room. However, some of the latest drugs are so pricey that it is naive toi think that just because a medical solution exists that people will have the money to take advantage of that. Cosmetic services such as those by SLTM are mostly optional, and the market is the middle-upper income sector. However, you have a point that if a family is paying through the nose for basic services, it is bound to eat into the budget for optional services.
DHRM is in a different situation, as the Peoples Republic of China is very much controlling healthcare in that country, and DHRM is focusing on working with the government to make sure that their products are the easiest option for consumers.
Thanks for the comment, and perhaps this is a concept that will open other investment alternatives.
Stan