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  • A Review Of 2012 'Expert' Predictions [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Jaxx.

    If I bought CSCO or MSFT 20 years ago (and didn't sell) I would be probably a very rich man today.

    The problem is hindsight is always 20/20. Can you identify today the next GOOG or AAPL?
    Jan 4, 2012. 10:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Investment Strategy For 2012 [View article]
    My normal profit target is 25-40%. In calm markets, most of the time it is not achievable and the strangles end up between a small loss to a small gain (10-15%). But during those times, the condors more than compensate. During volatile markets, it is not unusual to have 30-50% winners. In August I had four doubles in the strangle plays due to the big move in both IV and the stock price. Of course this is not typical and will not happen often. My overall return on strangles is around 10% gain per trade (including losers).
    Jan 4, 2012. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Pre-Earnings Volatility Spike On Monsanto, Mosaic And Apollo [View article]
    Yes, the timing was bad.

    Still strange - 11% loss in one day? The IV did not spike but still was slightly higher today, and theta is around -5%.
    Jan 4, 2012. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Sideways Markets - An Options Strategy (Part 1) [View article]
    I'm going to open a Feb. trade in the next few days and have another article about those trades.
    Jan 4, 2012. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Pre-Earnings Volatility Spike On Monsanto, Mosaic And Apollo [View article]
    I opened the trade on Friday Dec. 30 just before the close. It was clear that IV was low and will rise, I regret for not following my instincts and opening APOL as well. Opened at 2.30, closed at 2.65. I think gains came from both gamma and vega.

    When did Rudi open?
    Jan 4, 2012. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Pre-Earnings Volatility Spike On Monsanto, Mosaic And Apollo [View article]
    Interim summary:

    MON trade closed for 15% gain. The stock moved 3% from my purchase and IV moved just 3-5%.

    MOS trade closed for 7% loss. The stock was unchanged, IV jumped about 12%. Considering large negative theta of the weekly options and relatively small jump in IV, this is an acceptable result. Even 2-3% move in the stock would produce decent gain, probably in 20-25% range, so no move with 7% loss is very reasonable.
    Jan 4, 2012. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Investment Strategy For 2012 [View article]
    That's nice Jim.

    So just out of curiosity, which strikes do you have and how much the strangle was up on today's move?
    Jan 4, 2012. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Google Before Earnings [View article]
    I will have to check, but looks like you took the strikes with lower deltas. I could also go further OTM and the trade would be cheaper.
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Investment Strategy For 2012 [View article]
    Thanks mcm and welcome to my articles.

    I'm using Interactive Brokers Canada, they require only one side.
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Pre-Earnings Volatility Spike On Monsanto, Mosaic And Apollo [View article]
    Zornra,

    I tried to hold through earnings couple of times based on the same logic, but it didn't work well. Unless you expect a serious move, I would sell.

    I'm actually up about 9% on MON 67.5/72.5 and down 5-7% on MOS 52.5. I'm waiting till the last half hour.
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Trade AutoZone Before Earnings [View article]
    Hello denariig,

    There is a very good explanation here - http://bit.ly/ArvUx8

    You are basically buying a strangle (320/340 in our case) and selling further OTM strangle (310/350) to reduce the cost. The maximum gain is realized if the stock is above the short call strike (350) or below the short put strike (310) and is equal to $10. Since we don't wait till expiration but sell before earnings, realistically you can expect the whole trade to be worth about $5-6 if the stock moves 2-4%.
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Google Before Earnings [View article]
    Which strikes?
    Jan 4, 2012. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Google Before Earnings [View article]
    Hi Victor,

    I'm always looking at percentage move, not points move. If GOOG moves around 5%, the trade should gain 25-30%, depending on the time remaining, assuming IV remains unchanged. Check how much currently worth the condor with strikes 30 points lower and you will see what I'm talking about.
    Jan 4, 2012. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Google Before Earnings [View article]
    Yes all options will increase but the spread will become wider since more expensive options will gain more. With the overall trade having +12 vega, it should compensate the negative theta.

    What do you mean by "graph the options volatility with price"?
    Jan 4, 2012. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Investment Strategy For 2012 [View article]
    IV increase. Read my original thesis here - http://seekingalpha.co...

    Just trades that I shared here on SA in the last couple of weeks:
    AZO trade: +20%
    FDX: +27%
    RIMM: +5%

    My past trades include some 50-100% winners, with average return of ~10% for those trades.

    Commissions eat about 1-1.5% of the gains.
    Jan 4, 2012. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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