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  • Apple Beats Or Misses? I Don't Care [View article]
    See my article http://seekingalpha.co...

    Same idea, different strikes, better potential profit but lower probability and lower downside protection.
    Jan 23, 2012. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Netflix's Volatility [View article]
    Not sure what happened, I didn't follow it minute by minute. I'm showing almost breakeven right now. IV should jump tomorrow, but I don't know if it will offset the negative theta. If the stock goes down 3-4 points more, we should see a nice gain.

    BTW, if you bought just the strangle (95/110), you would be down ~10% by now.
    Jan 23, 2012. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Netflix's Volatility [View article]
    Which expiration you are talking? I didn't see any sudden change in my weeklies.
    Jan 23, 2012. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Tech Giants Earnings [View article]
    Just to remind you that HOG trade has to be closed today before the close if you don't want to hold through earnings.
    Jan 23, 2012. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Tech Giants Earnings [View article]
    Yes I am.
    Jan 23, 2012. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whatever You Do, Don't Do This Before Apple's Earnings [View article]
    Henry,

    If your comment wasn't sarcastic, I apologize. I have no problem to admit I was wrong if I was wrong. I probably should have mentioned that those were "expert" predictions, not mine, to prevent any confusion.
    Jan 23, 2012. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Options Underestimated The Risk, Again [View article]
    This is an excellent question, and I have no answer. But look at my AAPL and AMZN articles - they show that for those stocks, the options are actually overpriced. And for NFLX, they are under-priced, even more than in GOOG case.

    Markets are not sufficient, like many academics like us to think. And this is a good thing, because it gives us a chance to make some money.
    Jan 22, 2012. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whatever You Do, Don't Do This Before Apple's Earnings [View article]
    slichvguy,

    I absolutely agree with what you are saying. Alexander Elder wrote that 90% of the success in trading is psychology, and I agree. But even with the right psychology and attitude, if you don't have the right tools and knowledge, you have no chance. Most of the people don't even reach the stage when psychology plays a role. If someone has no clue about risk management and position sizing, no psychology will help.

    That said, you are absolutely correct by saying that even with the proper knowledge, experience and tools, many people will still fail. But even to reach that stage takes years, and most traders will not be ready to spend those years to get there. They give up before or keep trying with the same old tools. I was there, blindly following subscription services and failing time after time. I was there, blaming for my failures the markets, the subscription services, the market makers etc. Till I realized that it's me I have to blame. It's me that was lacking the right knowledge AND attitude.

    Just out of curiosity - how have you reached the conclusion that "Your nature is so obviously different"? Seeing someone reaching that conclusion just by reading my articles is both flattering and intriguing. I'm really curious because many times I ask myself if I do have the "right stuff".
    Jan 22, 2012. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Buy Netflix's Volatility [View article]
    ATM straddle costs around $15 now. Most of it is IV. IV will crash for all options after earnings. The straddle will require a 15% move just to break even
    Jan 22, 2012. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Options Underestimated The Risk, Again [View article]
    rbvk,

    You are absolutely correct in your observation.

    Please note that straddle results just show that the GOOG options on average are underpriced. I'm not recommending the straddle trade - as I mentioned, the risk is too high. Instead, I would consider one of the RIC trades I described.
    Jan 22, 2012. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whatever You Do, Don't Do This Before Apple's Earnings [View article]
    slichvguy,

    I don't consider myself a financial genius. I don't have any formal financial education or background. I just decided few years ago that I'm ready to spend some time and effort and learn how options work. Not everyone can do it because not everyone is READY to do it. Most people seek the fastest path. It simply doesn't work that way. If you are ready to accept the fact that this requires time, effort and learning curve, the results eventually will come. But if you just go the simplest path, but straight options and "hope" for the best, you will fail, just like most option traders fail.
    Jan 22, 2012. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whatever You Do, Don't Do This Before Apple's Earnings [View article]
    blubberx,

    The problem is that if the stock doesn't move much between now and May earnings, the trade will lose big time due to negative theta before it gets a chance to benefit from IV increase.
    Jan 22, 2012. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Conservative Options Strategy For Directional Traders [View article]
    By Bullish Debit Spread I assume you mean executing the same trade with calls instead of puts, correct?

    There is no difference. The P/L graph is the same. You can get 22 cents credit and risk 78 cents or pay 78 cents debit with potential 22 cents gain.

    I like the credit spread for two reasons.
    First, OTM options are usually more liquid than ITM, so you might get better execution. Second, with OTM options there is no assignment risk. You just let the options expirae for a full profit.
    Jan 21, 2012. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Safer Way To Bet On Apple Earnings [View article]
    The dividend has no material impact on option prices. The strikes will be adjusted, that's all.
    Jan 21, 2012. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Google Straddle Ahead Of Earnings? [View article]
    Eisotrader,

    Like I mentioned, I don't like the risk/reward. You risk $470 to make $30 and go 10% OTM. GOOG moved more than 10% two times out of ten in the last 10 cycles.

    Not sure if GOOG is a good candidate to do it. As the table shows (confirmed in this cycle), GOOG options are actually underpriced before earnings. AAPL, BIDU or AMZN might be better candidates
    Jan 21, 2012. 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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