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  • Market Timing Report: 10-20% Correction Due To Extreme Sentiment And Leverage [View article]
    Covered calls and naked puts is basically the same strategy (same risk profile). They are both directional (bullish). They give you a slight protection if the stock declines, but only to some degree. Your loss will be smaller than just holding the stock, but if the stock goes down 20-30%, you still lose money.

    Non-directional strategies include straddles, strangles, calendars, iron condors, butterflies etc.
    Oct 12, 2014. 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: 10-20% Correction Due To Extreme Sentiment And Leverage [View article]
    TechEnthusiast,

    There are many non-directional strategies. Some of them are long volatility (straddles, calendars), others are short volatility (iron condors). Using a mix of those strategies allows you not to be too dependent on the where volatility goes.

    Take a look at our track record to see how those strategies performed in the last 3 years - http://bit.ly/MXsvon.

    Michael,

    What you say is true in general - the problem is that during bear markets like 2000 or 2008, there is nowhere to hide. No stock was immune in 2008. So you need to be ready to big drawdowns during bear markets, or hedge, or sell at pre-set stop loss points.
    Oct 12, 2014. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: 10-20% Correction Due To Extreme Sentiment And Leverage [View article]
    The simple truth is that there is NO WAY to predict with any degree of accuracy what the markers will do. There are only 3 ways to be profitable in the markets:

    1. Concentrate on the long term, ignore any short term fluctuations, buy the dips. Not a bad strategy, but be ready to experience 40-50% drawdowns to your portfolio every 6-8 years.

    2. Be long and hedged all the time.

    3. Implement non-directional options strategies.

    To me, everything else is simply waste of time. Any kind of prediction is 50/50 at the best.
    Oct 12, 2014. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Won't Be Buying Alibaba Anytime Soon [View article]
    Good article RS.

    Personally I don't touch ANYTHING related to China. Just cannot trust them.
    Oct 7, 2014. 01:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SteadyOptions 2014 Half Year Report: 95.3% ROI [View instapost]
    Just looked at your website. The way you trade - no wonder you think it is ABSOLUTELY IMMPOSSIBLE to make money with options.

    Here are just few of the gems on your website:

    1. You claim to be right 55% of the time. What you don't mention is the fact that if you are wrong and the stock moves in the opposite direction, your loss is probably close to 100%.

    2. You claim for average risk:reward of 1:1.20, but I don't see how this is possible.

    3. With possible losses of 100%, how much can you allocate per trade, without risking ruining your account if 4-5 straight losers happen (and please don't tell me this is not possible)?

    4. Speaking of commissions - I find it ironical that you mention impact of commissions on my returns while you trade mostly cheap spreads of 0.50-0.70 (0.29 in case of INTC). For INTC, commissions will eat 10% of the trade value, while in my case, it is only 1% on average.

    5. The returns and breakevens on your charts are completely irrelevant because they ignore the post earnings IV changes.

    6. You mention that "one can expect to make annual returns of +20-30%", but provide absolutely no explanation how you reached those numbers. What is your average return per trade? How many trades per month? What is the allocation?

    My trading is SO different from yours. I don't hold through earnings in 99% of my trades, so my maximum loss is usually limited to 10-15%, and I can allocate 10-12% per trade. I provide all the necessary information, full performance statistics, allocation guidelines etc.
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SteadyOptions 2014 Half Year Report: 95.3% ROI [View instapost]
    Facts:

    1. You assumed in your post that 7% is an average winner, while in fact this is an average return including losers.

    2. You assumed that those are theoretical returns ("when you add tricky, merciless market maker") while in fact those are real fills.

    3. I provided you with numbers why "this thing" can and does work. Each trade is posted on the forum in REAL TIME with my screenshots of real fills. Those are not theoretical trades.

    4. Yes, commissions reduce the returns SIGNIFICANTLY, by about 2-3% per month. It is clearly stated here - http://bit.ly/UTZ1At. But the returns are still significant even after commissions. I challenge you to find holes in my performance reporting, instead of throwing baseless accusations.

    The proof is in the numbers and reviews:
    1. Our service is ranked #1 on members satisfaction, out of 700+ newsletters.
    2. The demand was so strong that I had to close it to new members - http://bit.ly/1C4chFI.
    3. Do you believe if members didn't make money, they would stay?
    But I guess you won't let the facts to confuse you..
    Oct 5, 2014. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Dear Wizard,

    We trade/invest in different ways. My proof is my public track record. 107% average annual return in the last 3 years (including commissions), verified by independent third party. Where is yours? Start posting your trades in real time like I do, and then we can talking and comparing returns.

    That's right, to be successful in my style, I don't have to know anything about the fundamentals of the companies I trade. Only options Greeks and price patterns.

    But you know what is the difference between us? I never said that my style is the only right one (despite the fact that we are consistently ranked among the top ten newsletters). You on the other hand call everyone who doesn't agree with your opinion a moron. So who lives in denial?

    Yes, I sell subscriptions, what's wrong with that? By insulting my way of living, you now insulting the whole industry of investment advisers, hedge fund managers, mutual fund managers etc. Now ignorant and arrogant is this?
    Oct 3, 2014. 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Willy,

    Keeping insulting people only because they have an opinion different from yours doesn't make you less hollow than the people you insult.

    As for your comment about companies killing people - I don't see how this is relevant. But based on this argument, people should sell half of the companies in the S&P. Oil companies are poisoning the environment. Tobacco companies cause lung cancer. Financial companies caused dozens suicides in 2008 sub-prime crisis. Auto-companies kill people on roads. Should I continue?

    Is Apple any better? Aren't they abusing thousands of workers in China?
    Oct 3, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SteadyOptions 2014 Half Year Report: 95.3% ROI [View instapost]
    Well, I assume I'm not going to get any response or apology from you. Very easy to throw a bunch of baseless accusation without checking the basic facts and then just disappear.

    Which is probably not surprising, considering that you have your own website, and your only purpose was to bash a competitor.
    Oct 2, 2014. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Investors Be Worried By Recent Developments? [View article]
    Apple has nothing to worry about. There are enough fanboys who will buy ANY Apple product, no matter what. They will buy it even if it doesn't work. Then they will say "it's not a bug, it's a feature". Apple PR did an excellent job over the years to dismiss all the problems they had. Any other company having such issues would probably go out of business.
    Sep 28, 2014. 02:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SteadyOptions 2014 Half Year Report: 95.3% ROI [View instapost]
    Dear calendaroptions,

    Please note the disclaimer:
    "Please note that those results are based on real fills, not hypothetical performance, and exclude commissions, so your actual results will be lower."

    I don't think that many services (if any) have a similar disclaimer. I'm also trying to set realistic expectations - see my article http://bit.ly/1rlmnjn

    7% was the average return, not average winner. It included winners and losers.

    Now, lets do a quick math:

    The average spread was around $3. To trade it, you need 4 transactions (two to open and two to close). If you trade with IB (which is what we recommend), you will pay around $3 (0.75*4) which is 1% of the trade value. So 7% return becomes 6% return. Add another 1% because some trades require adjustments, you get around 5%.

    Allocate 10% per trade, 84 trades = 5%*0.1*84=42%. Still not bad in 6 months.

    "Oh, and I forgot: one would probably end up a NET LOSER when you add tricky, merciless market maker on algo-steroids spreads!" - once again, the performance is based on real fills, not mid or theoretical prices.

    Skepticism is always good, but you should check the facts (and maybe ask for clarification) before posting baseless accusations. Our members make very good money with the service. In fact, the demand was so strong that I had to close the service to new members. People who don't make money don't stay.
    Sep 27, 2014. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Short Interest Jumps 44% [View article]
    The bending issue continues the "tradition" of Apple iPhones: basically EVERY iPhone had some kind of issue (battery, antenna etc.) According to the same tradition, Apple's first reaction is to say "it's not a bug, it's a feature". Of course at some point they will have to recongnize the problem and fix it.

    Which proves two things:
    1. Like with any other product (car, TV etc.) you should NEVER buy a new model in the first couple months of the release.
    2. Apple fanboys will continue to ignore this basic consumer rule and jump on all Apple products in the first day/week of its release. They will also continue to defend Apple and say that "this is a non-issue".
    Sep 27, 2014. 04:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    purpleboarder,

    You still don't get it? To GP/Willy, people like you and me who don't agree with their blind and unconditional bullish view on Apple - we are almost traitors. Enemies of the state. Nothing that we say matters. I'm a fraud because I'm not Apple fanboy.
    Sep 26, 2014. 03:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Just tells you how meaningless is the $2 dividend for a stock that can move $7 in matter of hours.
    Sep 22, 2014. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Apple just lost the global smartphone war to Google - http://linkd.in/1C51tXU

    A Close, Disturbing Look at a New York iPhone 6 Line (Video) - http://on.recode.net/1...

    Apple fanboys, you really need a wakeup call.
    Sep 22, 2014. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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