Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
Don't be confused Kevin. I will explain it slowly: Kim Klaiman is my real name. SteadyOptions is the name of my subscription service.
It is really not complicated, just try to concentrate.
Looking forward for the article. You didn't mention which Saturday and which year.
P.S. posting trades next day proves NOTHING. The only way is posting entry and exit in real time. I can always find dozens of trades which would work perfectly in hindsight.
Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
Welsh is one of the SA readers who like us was asking some tough questions. He posted few comments on Kevin's famous GOOG article - http://seekingalpha.co.... However, this was a year ago and this was the only time he posted anything on Kevin's articles, but apparently Kevin still remembers him.. good memory I must say. I'm pretty sure Welsh doesn't even remember who is Kevin.. But Welsh is an attorney and I'm sure he will know how to handle this issue.
Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
Just got an email from Kevin:
"You, my friend, have been treading on some very serious territory lately. While I know you are a complete sham, I have for the most part kept that to myself. Now it is personal. I know you have your "pals" posting all the time. Here's the kicker: it comes back to your IP address? I am filing a lawsuit against you, Welsh, and everyone who has orchestrated it. Try me. You must think I'm find this funny? Do you think I'm kidding? No, it is beyond that."
What a miserable joke.. Welsh I think didn't visit SA for months.. "orchestrated it"? I think that this is really paranoid.
On a separate note, I would be very careful to pay $159 per month to someone with absolutely no track record, but that's just me..
Dow Jones Industrial Average About To Plunge? [View article]
The simple truth is that nobody can predict future returns of the stock market, not in the short term and not in the long term. All the analysis that you read is pretty much worthless. There are too many factors involved, and if anyone could make any predictions with decent level of consistency (even 60%), he would be retired to a private island and not bother writing for Seeking Alpha.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
Please give me one simple example where I misquoted you. Didn't you say that you make 24% per week? Didn't you invite me to San Diego and guaranteed to make me 6k on 25k capital? Didn't you say that GOOG trade will work "like a charm"?
Every single quote that I gave was taken from your article or comment.
And there are still questions waiting for your response. And there will be much more in my review of your book on Amazon. But I highly doubt we will get real answers.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
I must say that for someone who claims to make 24% every week, he is wasting a lot of time to write those $9.80 books. I'm wondering why he is doing it if he can make those kinds of returns from trading..
A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade [View article]
How do you know that he keeps himself in business? How do you know that he is even profitable? Because he says so? He is on SA for 1.5 years, we have not seen one single trade that he shared in REAL TIME. Each trade that he shared, even when it lost money, his answer was "you don't know how much I paid and for how much I sold". In some cases he claimed to make money on trades which were not profitable for one single day.
A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade [View article]
napoleon,
The irony is that I actually like Kevin's articles. I agree with his philosophy that you should trade earnings only non-directionally. Unfortunately, this is where our agreement ends.
Take this article for example. He says "This trade is extremely low risk.. and should be an easy winner."
This is the same mistake he made with GOOG when he wrote ""he trade recommendation I am writing about will work like a charm." and the trade lost 100%.
Those trades can do well few quarters when the stock moves, but will lose 80-100% when they don't. So correct definition for this trade is "high probability, high risk". Definitely not low risk.
btw, in case of C, it is not even high probability. The trade require a 4.5% move to breakeven, and in the lat 10 quarters, the stock moved more than 4.5% only 2 times. 6 times it moved less than 2% which would result a huge loss (100% in some cases).
And yes, I know I did nothing wrong, except for trying to show the absurd of some of Kevin's claims. btw, downloaded his new book, going to post a review on Amazon soon.
Will Google Be Generous To Us Once Again? [View article]
Recently I'm using less the RIC strategy due to low IV, high slippage and commissions. Last quarter I did a double calendar on GOOG which produced a 26% gain. I didn't trade ICs for a while - the IV is simply too low and the credits do not justify the risk.
A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade [View article]
B50,
Selling IC before earnings when IV of the individual stocks is high might be a good idea in the long term. However, you need to be prepared to take occasional 100% losses if the stock moves more that the options imply. The risk/reward depends on the strikes - the further you go OTM, the lower is your potential profit but you also have higher probability of success. The key is position sizing - you need to remember that you risk 100% even if that 100% loss will not happen very often.
A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade [View article]
Got another threat email from Kevin. This time he is threatening to sue me for "breaking the interfering with commerce law".
napoleon, I think no matter what you say and no matter how strong the evidence is, there always will be people that will ignore the facts. Saying that making 24% a week (1,200% a year) is not hard is like saying that you can easily lose 50 pounds per week with a diet. Yet many people are so desperate in their search for the holy grail that they will believe it.
Of course it is obvious now that we are not going to see a single live trade from Kevin, so for me, to continue asking him to do so is a waste of time. Whoever wants to believe those claims and waste 6k on his training is welcome to do it, it is really not my business.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
I don't want answers anymore. I suggest you take a look at the following article - http://seekingalpha.co... especially the comments section. I started with asking some legitimate questions, at some point when he realized that he doesn't have good answers, he just concluded the discussion by writing "You are a very, very sick man. The medicine is not working."
Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
Kim Klaiman is my real name.
SteadyOptions is the name of my subscription service.
It is really not complicated, just try to concentrate.
Looking forward for the article. You didn't mention which Saturday and which year.
P.S. posting trades next day proves NOTHING. The only way is posting entry and exit in real time. I can always find dozens of trades which would work perfectly in hindsight.
Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
Website Is Officially Up And Running - WWW. KEVINMOBRIEN.COM [View instapost]
"You, my friend, have been treading on some very serious territory lately. While I know you are a complete sham, I have for the most part kept that to myself. Now it is personal. I know you have your "pals" posting all the time. Here's the kicker: it comes back to your IP address? I am filing a lawsuit against you, Welsh, and everyone who has orchestrated it. Try me. You must think I'm find this funny? Do you think I'm kidding? No, it is beyond that."
What a miserable joke.. Welsh I think didn't visit SA for months.. "orchestrated it"? I think that this is really paranoid.
On a separate note, I would be very careful to pay $159 per month to someone with absolutely no track record, but that's just me..
New Book Published On Amazon.com [View instapost]
http://amzn.to/11Qdz6j
Dow Jones Industrial Average About To Plunge? [View article]
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
Every single quote that I gave was taken from your article or comment.
And there are still questions waiting for your response. And there will be much more in my review of your book on Amazon. But I highly doubt we will get real answers.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
I got another 3 emails from Kevin with more threats and insults. Honestly, I don't know why he is still here.
The problem is that he can delete his own comments on his instablog like he did with the previous instablog, so it won't really help to new readers.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade [View article]
A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade [View article]
The irony is that I actually like Kevin's articles. I agree with his philosophy that you should trade earnings only non-directionally. Unfortunately, this is where our agreement ends.
Take this article for example. He says "This trade is extremely low risk.. and should be an easy winner."
This is the same mistake he made with GOOG when he wrote ""he trade recommendation I am writing about will work like a charm." and the trade lost 100%.
Those trades can do well few quarters when the stock moves, but will lose 80-100% when they don't. So correct definition for this trade is "high probability, high risk". Definitely not low risk.
btw, in case of C, it is not even high probability. The trade require a 4.5% move to breakeven, and in the lat 10 quarters, the stock moved more than 4.5% only 2 times. 6 times it moved less than 2% which would result a huge loss (100% in some cases).
And yes, I know I did nothing wrong, except for trying to show the absurd of some of Kevin's claims. btw, downloaded his new book, going to post a review on Amazon soon.
Will Google Be Generous To Us Once Again? [View article]
A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade [View article]
Selling IC before earnings when IV of the individual stocks is high might be a good idea in the long term. However, you need to be prepared to take occasional 100% losses if the stock moves more that the options imply. The risk/reward depends on the strikes - the further you go OTM, the lower is your potential profit but you also have higher probability of success. The key is position sizing - you need to remember that you risk 100% even if that 100% loss will not happen very often.
A Low-Risk Citigroup Earnings Trade [View article]
napoleon, I think no matter what you say and no matter how strong the evidence is, there always will be people that will ignore the facts. Saying that making 24% a week (1,200% a year) is not hard is like saying that you can easily lose 50 pounds per week with a diet. Yet many people are so desperate in their search for the holy grail that they will believe it.
Of course it is obvious now that we are not going to see a single live trade from Kevin, so for me, to continue asking him to do so is a waste of time. Whoever wants to believe those claims and waste 6k on his training is welcome to do it, it is really not my business.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
especially the comments section. I started with asking some legitimate questions, at some point when he realized that he doesn't have good answers, he just concluded the discussion by writing "You are a very, very sick man. The medicine is not working."
Very professional..
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
Good luck.