3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
Mike,
I don't know for how long you are following Kevin. He has been on SA since September 2011. I appreciate that fact that he commented on his articles and was usually very quick to answer questions. However, there is a pattern that repeats itself: once someone starts questioning him, he starts attacking him personally, or just disappears. Not sure what makes you think that it will be different this time.
Here are just few examples of his "gems": http://seekingalpha.co... - this is where he started the 20k portoflio and guaranteed in one of the comments "that by January 31, 2012 this portfolio account will be at 40k or more." One of the trades lost 60%+, and he just stopped tracking it.
http://seekingalpha.co... - this is where he presented the GOOG trade and promised that "he trade recommendation I am writing about will work like a charm." The trade lost 100%. He did not disclose any of the risks.
http://seekingalpha.co... - this where he said "One of the many drawbacks of a credit spread is that it will tie up so much capital." A complete nonsense and lack of understanding. Like I mentioned, what determines the risk/reward and the capital tied up is the strikes and not the credit or the debit. You can do the same trade with same strikes for a credit or a debit with same P/L graph.
Just read some of the comments on the articles I linked and you will see what I mean.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
I reported it to SA, not going to post it here. SA removed the last two blogs of Kevin - I mean, the WHOLE posts, including all comments. Not sure this is the solution I would wish for - after all, I think people have the right to see all the history, where he makes those ridiculous claims. But that's SA prerogative, and I respect that. He will probably continue making those claims on his website, but I hope people have enough common sense not to be sucked into it.
10 Rules For Trading Calendar Spreads [View article]
I wouldn't call it a double down. Unless the stock drops really sharply and quickly, the theta should offset some of the loss. Plus the IV will increase, offsetting some of the loss as well. But AAPL would not be a great candidate for this strategy in the last few months.
10 Rules For Trading Calendar Spreads [View article]
You are missing the high negative gamma. If the stock moves, the trade will lose money quickly, but it will also gain more if the stock stays in the range. So basically it's a high risk high reward trade.
The simple truth is that every company is worth how much the market is willing to pay for it. Period. That means that today, AAPL is worth $460 ($453 as I type this). Tomorrow it might be worth more. Or less. Anyone telling you that he knows that AAPL will be worth more a year from now is simply misleading you. AAPL is the most followed stock in the world, what makes you think that you know something that others don't to predict how much it will be worth in the future?
Profiting From The Fight Of The Greeks [View article]
I usually use indexes for ICs. Doing IC with low priced stocks like CSCO will be very commissions consuming. In general, you can do IC before earnings if you think that options are overpriced, but you need to be aware that those are much riskier trades.
The Gap And Abercrombie & Fitch Are Heading Into Earnings With Positive Momentum [View article]
Nick, ANF don't have the earnings date on their website. How do you know it's on Feb.13? Feb. monthly options collapsed today which may indicate that the earnings are after Feb. cycle. Do you have any reliable info regarding the date?
Dead Company Walking: 5 Reasons BlackBerry 10 Marks The End [View article]
I'm really amused to read all those "scientific" articles and analysis. They are worthless. All of them. Show me one person who predicted 4 years ago that RIMM will go from $130 to $6.. Show me one person who predicted 4 months ago that AAPL will go from $700 to $440..
The simple truth is that tech world is completely unpredictable. I would not be surprised to see BBRY going out of business 5 years from now, but I will also not be surprised to see their stock price equal to AAPL's.
Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
Apple were way ahead of competition couple years ago. Today they are playing catchup. Competitors are selling phones at equal or better quality at lower prices. How long can they fool people to buy a $700 iPhone 5 which is only marginally better than a $450 iPhone 4?
Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
I hear that AAPL is a buying opportunity all the way down from $600. Didn't they say the same thing about RIMM couple years ago? Or AMZN back in 2000-2001?
I guess you got your answer. With the stock up 5%+, the put would lose a 100% while the straddle has a chance to be a small winner if the stock rises another few points.
Statistically, GOOG straddles have better returns over time than AAPL, but both have very high risk of 50%+ loss if the stock moves less than the options imply.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
I don't know for how long you are following Kevin. He has been on SA since September 2011. I appreciate that fact that he commented on his articles and was usually very quick to answer questions. However, there is a pattern that repeats itself: once someone starts questioning him, he starts attacking him personally, or just disappears. Not sure what makes you think that it will be different this time.
Here are just few examples of his "gems":
http://seekingalpha.co... - this is where he started the 20k portoflio and guaranteed in one of the comments "that by January 31, 2012 this portfolio account will be at 40k or more." One of the trades lost 60%+, and he just stopped tracking it.
http://seekingalpha.co... - this is where he presented the GOOG trade and promised that "he trade recommendation I am writing about will work like a charm." The trade lost 100%. He did not disclose any of the risks.
http://seekingalpha.co... - this where he said "One of the many drawbacks of a credit spread is that it will tie up so much capital." A complete nonsense and lack of understanding. Like I mentioned, what determines the risk/reward and the capital tied up is the strikes and not the credit or the debit. You can do the same trade with same strikes for a credit or a debit with same P/L graph.
Just read some of the comments on the articles I linked and you will see what I mean.
3 Stocks Worth Buying Puts On In An Overbought Market [View instapost]
'Sell In May And Go Away' Might Come Early This Year [View article]
Or you can implement non-directional options strategies and not to worry about market direction.
10 Rules For Trading Calendar Spreads [View article]
10 Rules For Trading Calendar Spreads [View article]
10 Rules For Trading Calendar Spreads [View article]
Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]
The market will do what the market has to do.
Profiting From The Fight Of The Greeks [View article]
The Gap And Abercrombie & Fitch Are Heading Into Earnings With Positive Momentum [View article]
Dead Company Walking: 5 Reasons BlackBerry 10 Marks The End [View article]
The simple truth is that tech world is completely unpredictable. I would not be surprised to see BBRY going out of business 5 years from now, but I will also not be surprised to see their stock price equal to AAPL's.
Performance Reporting: The Myths And The Reality [View instapost]
Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
Google: Another Long Straddle [View article]
Google: Another Long Straddle [View article]