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  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    I'm wondering who is insulting whom? And no, I did not delete any of your comments. I'm just not sure what are those numbers and what you are trying to prove? Are those your trades? AAPL options? Do we have any reliable way to know that you actually made those trades? Are you willing to share your trades in real time, like I did when SA allowed options articles?
    Sep 20, 2014. 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Once again, you claim that I'm AAPL bear, which I'm not. Personally, I couldn't care less which way the stock is headed. I made tons of money with AAPL playing it with options, and will continue to do so. Just FYI, I own iPad and very happy with it. I owned iPhone and replaced it 6 months ago with HTC, and find it at at least equal quality as iPhone, at significantly cheaper price. But at my next upgrade, I'm open to consider all products, including iPhone, and will make my decision based on what is the best product at that time. This is the difference between smart consumer and Apple fanatic who will buy Apple product no matter what. The price could be higher, the competitor might be better at that time - the Apple fanatic will not care.

    You view the lines for the new iPhone as excitement, I view it as a cult. Apple might fix some small software bugs, what about hardware bugs? And why wait for them to fix it? meanwhile you are stuck with defective product. It happens to any product, iPhone is no different. What is so urgent that it cannot wait couple months and you need to spend hours in line or overpay double on eBay?
    Sep 19, 2014. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    I'm not sure why you say I was wrong. You probably didn't bother to read some of the links I provided. As mentioned, I never called to short AAPL. I warned against the euphoria and the extreme sentiment in 2012, and I was right. All I'm saying that the current sentiment reminds me 2012. Will the history repeat itself? I have no idea. The same way as you have no way to know where AAPL will be in the next 5-10 years - yet you sound so sure that it goes higher. It's almost like you can predict the future. And this is what scary.

    4 million iPhones pre-ordered in first 24 hours?? You might find it encouraging, I find it scary. Any rational person knows that any high tech product will have many bugs and defects in the first few batches. It's a well known fact. It's true for cars, electronics products, and smartphones are no different. No rational consumer will order any of those products in the first couple months of their production. Yet it seems that Apple fanboys ignore this simple consumer rule time after time. To me, this is a first sign of a bubble.
    Sep 19, 2014. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Record iPhone 6 Pre-Orders Versus No China In 2014 [View article]
    I have a simple question for all Apple fanboys.

    Any rational person knows that any high tech product will have many bugs and defects in the first few batches. It's a well known fact. It's true for cars, electronics products, and smartphones are no different. No rational consumer will order any of those products in the first couple months of their production. Yet it seems that Apple fanboys ignore this simple consumer rule time after time. What is it in the new iPhone that you cannot live without another couple months? Why people would pay on ebay double the retail price for iPhone 6 plus - http://bit.ly/YZ1Rco? Isn't it a bit of insane?
    Sep 19, 2014. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Willy and Wizard,

    Your comments just continue proving me right regarding the fanaticism and blindness of Apple fanboys.

    FYI:
    I was NEVER Apple bear. I NEVER called to short AAPL and never was short AAPL myself. All I'm saying is that the stock sentiment is now exactly like in 2012, and your comments prove it. In fact, if you look at some of my articles back in 2012, I warned against the exact same sentiment when the stock was at $650-700, and I was right.

    I'm not an Apple bull or bear. I don't care about the company fundamentals. I don't want to predict where the stock is going in the next month, year or 5 years. If I can predict where the stock won't go in the next month, this is good enough for me.

    But many of my readers profited from the non-directional AAPL trades that I shared - ALL of them made double digit gains. Here are few examples:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The Bull Credit spread from December 13, 2011 produced a 42% gain in 6 weeks.
    The Iron Condor from January 10, 2012 produced a 28% gain in 2 weeks.
    The Bear Call Spread combined with the weekly RICs from February 14, 2012 produced a 15% gain in 5 weeks.
    The Iron Condor from March 5, 2012 produced a 18% gain in one week.
    The Long Butterfly from March 19, 2012 produced a 35% gain in three days.

    So Willy, why would I be grumpy? I'm making triple digit gains with my non-directional stuff year after year without really caring which way AAPL or any other stock goes.


    Sep 19, 2014. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    You mist be 10 years old then.. because according to my memory, I remember at least 2 crashes in the last 14 years (2000 and 2008), both over 40%. Another one was in 1987 (30%).
    Sep 18, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    "OF COURSE you're going to find that most people who were buying and selling a lot underperformed. That's a given."

    That's true only if you buy when the market goes up and sell when the market goes down. There are many ways to trade a LOT and outperform by a LOT. But you need to understand what you are doing. And most people who trade a lot only THINK that they understand.

    But again, the fact remains. And those who "buy and hold" not necessarily get the 9%/year. It really depends when they started. Those who started in 2007, it will take years till they see an "average" return of 9%/year.
    Sep 18, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    No, hedges are for people who don't want to lose 40-50% of their account.

    If you lose 50%, you need 100% gain to get back to even. Many people forget this simple fact.

    If you bought 5 years ago, you are in a good shape. What if you bought 7 years ago (2007)? How about those who bought in March 2000?
    Sep 18, 2014. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    It doesn't matter how you call them, the fact remains. It's not that a small part unperformed, we are talking about AVERAGE equity fund investor.

    Many of them are not necessarily speculators. read the article to see the reasons for underperformance.
    Sep 18, 2014. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Here is one source (there are many more):

    http://abt.cm/vtGT2W

    "For the twenty years ending 12/31/2013 the S&P 500 Index averaged 9.22% a year. A pretty attractive historical return. The average equity fund investor earned a market return of only 5.02%."

    I see it every day in my options service. Many people join after a hot streak and quit after few bad trades. Believe it or not, but I had few members quitting and re-joining 4-5 times, repeating the same pattern over and over again, always missing the most profitable months. Many of them cancel after just few weeks or 3-4 bad trades.

    This is a classic definition of "buy high sell low", and this is what most people do when it comes to the stock market.
    Sep 17, 2014. 08:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    This is hilarious:

    http://on.fb.me/1sqMtg3

    Dear iPhone 6 users: welcome to 2012!
    Sep 17, 2014. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Not, it's a concept of buying long term puts and paying for them by selling short term puts with specific ratio. Read the link.
    Sep 17, 2014. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Great article.

    After 5 years of bull market, many investors have a short term memory loss. They think it can go on forever. When they wake up, it's too late.

    Take a look how you can fully hedge your portfolio with minimal or no cost - http://bit.ly/1i9K990
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    When AAPL wasn't a bargain? Was it a bargain at $705 2 years ago? According to all Apple fanboys, it was going to $1,000 in no time.
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Welcome back Rocco! It's good to read your excellent articles again.

    As Dan Nathan wrote:

    "What I hate most about the stock right now is the sentiment. In my experience on Twitter, you are a total DICK if you talk negatively about Apple. Which is hilarious to me because I remember the last time this Apple stock pundit was the recipient of such venom (spoiler alert: Sept 2012). Many Apple investors are irrationally confident despite the risk that history may repeat itself again. My view very simply is that the news-flow is subsiding, the sentiment is peaking, and there is a possibility that the stock could actually go down from current levels."

    Comments in your article just confirm it. It was very balanced and realistic article, very far from bashing. But to Apple fanboys, if you don't write that the stock will double in the next couple years, you are a clueless dick.

    The four most dangerous words in investing are "this time it's different" - Sir John Templeton.
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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