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  • Apple's iPhone 6 Market Impacts [View article]
    The simple truth is that Apple makes great products, but it's no longer a market leader like it was 3-4 years ago. It's playing catch up. It might be hard to admit for all Apple fanboys, but it's a truth.

    Here is a good and objective analysis:

    A lot of similarities between the current situation and Sept 2012, when the stock was at the all time highs as Apple released a new LARGER iPhone, and a new SMALLER iPAd. There is a good chance we can see $90 or lower before the next leg higher.
    Sep 10, 2014. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    I'm sorry that you see it that way.

    A simple question: wouldn't you be glad not to have to worry about market direction, valuations, market timing etc.? Isn't it a dream of every investor - to be able to make money in all markets?
    Aug 7, 2014. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Okay, got it. Learning something new every day (English is not my native language).

    reading all the comments, I'm so glad that I don't have to deal with guessing the direction, timing the market, evaluating companies, relying on 3% dividend etc.
    Aug 7, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Diversification does work, but not traditional diversification of stocks/bonds/commoditi... etc.

    Refer to this article to see how REAL diversification looks like.

    And no, I'm not selling my book for a simple reason that I don't have a book.
    Aug 6, 2014. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    "One option is to asset allocate to a fund like Vanguard Wellsley which is roughly 2/3 bonds, 1/3 stocks"

    If your investment adviser has you in a small-cap fund, a mid-cap fund, a large-cap fund, a foreign investment fund, a commodity fund, a bond fund, and a high dividend fund such as a REIT or pipeline, and tells you that you’re adequately diversified, find a new investment adviser. In a market crash, ALL of those asset classes will get hammered.

    Sure, on a week to week basis in a bull market you are diversified and relatively protected against company and sector risk. But you are horribly exposed to market risk, and the vast majorities of investment advisers either simply do not understand this or believe that “that’s just the way things are.” However no investor should accept that answer.
    Aug 6, 2014. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    "There were a lot of people who invested regularly and periodically in the stock market in 1922 through 1929. I seriously doubt they lost 90% of what they put in. Those who started years earlier had a good cost basis going in."

    Actually I believe that most did lose 90% of their money.

    What most people forget is that gains and losses are not symmetric. If you gain 50% one year and lose 50% a year after, you are NOT back to even. Why? Because most people use compounding - isn't this the whole point of smart investing? So if you started with 100k, made 50% and then lost 50%, you now have 75k. If you lose 50%, it takes now to make 100% to get back to even.

    This is why capital preservation is more important than gains or missed opportunity. This is something that many options traders also don't understand - they try to maximize the gains while the goal should be to limit the losses.
    Aug 6, 2014. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Well, thanks for your advise, but I'm doing fine. After selling all my stocks 6 years ago, I started trading exclusively options, with non-directional strategies. Don't have to try and guess the direction. Don't have to evaluate stocks. Averaging 50-80% per year on regular basis, year after year, without taking any directional risk. In August 2011 when everyone else was losing their shirt, I made 40% in one month due to increasing volatility.

    Some people seek 2-3% per year from dividends, I make this almost every week. No market timing, no crystal ball.
    Aug 4, 2014. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers And Seeking Alpha [View article]
    Frankly, I don't understand why articles by short sellers are even an issue. Bad research or stock manipulation can apply to both long and short articles. The issue should be poor articles, no matter if they advocate long or short ideas. And unfortunately, there are too many poor articles on SA.
    Aug 2, 2014. 12:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Sure.. the stocks always recover, don't they? Well.. they do.. except for those that don't. Didn't we hear the same song in 2008 on stocks like Citigroup? I still remember all the pundits advising to double down at $30.. then on $20, all the way to under $1. After all, how low can it go? And we still have the dividend. We all know what happened with the stock and the dividend.

    No, wait.. this time it's different!!!!
    Aug 1, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    And how do you know that 8-9% drop is not the beginning of something much bigger?

    You see, here is the problem with predictions: most of them are pretty much useless. And this is what most of the 700+ comments are about: predictions.

    Of course everyone is saying today that they sold just before the markets tanked in 2008. Well, I wasn't that lucky. I lost a lot of money in 2008, and I promised myself: never again. Those who believe that 2008 was a one time event are fooling themselves.
    Aug 1, 2014. 09:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Earnings Plays [View article]
    This is a good analysis. The strategy should produce good results in the long term, but I would still not do it naked. By buying cheap hedge, you 1) reduce your margin; 2) reduce the possibility of catastrophic loss.
    Jul 31, 2014. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    SA editors have the tendency to describe the reality in pink colors.

    No matter how you present it, this is a VERY BAD NEWS to SA contributors. It might save SA money, but SA contributors will get significantly less because huge portion of the traffic came from Yahoo.
    Jul 26, 2014. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    I'm surprised that everyone is talking about 2 alternatives only: sell or hold. There is a much better alternative. It's called hedging. In fact, I believe you should be hedged all the time. It can be done with little or no cost. Please take a look -

    You can enjoy of almost full appreciation of your portfolio and still be fully hedged if the markets tank.
    Jul 26, 2014. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Here is the problem:

    After 5 years of markets going up in almost a straight line, people get a short term memory loss. Some think it will continue forever. Well, I have news for you: 2008 WILL happen again. It's not matter of IF but WHEN. Why? Because it does every 6-8 years. It might be hard to time, but those who believe the markets will continue higher for much longer simply haven't been around enough time.

    btw, there are many ways to be prepared without selling one single share. It's called hedging with options, and it can be done with almost no cost.
    Jul 25, 2014. 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    I'm reading all the arguments about the taxes and the dividends, and it makes me laugh very loud.

    Tax should be among the last arguments in your investment decisions. If you have to pay tax, that's a good thing - it means you made a profit. What is better: to sell and pay the tax, or to hold and lose all the gains if it pulls back?

    As for the dividends - well, dividends really helped those who held citigroup or other financial stocks in 2008. If your stock loses 30-50%, is 4% dividend really relevant? And if this happens, there is a good chance that dividend will be cut anyway. And even if not - not fool yourself that "it's only a paper loss". A loss is a loss. For some stocks it might take generations to recover.

    Timing the markets is a difficult task, and there are many arguments against it. Taxes and dividends are NOT among those arguments.
    Jul 25, 2014. 04:20 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment