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  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Wizard,

    You still failed to show a single post where I recommended to short AAPL. You failed to show a single post where I said that I KNOW where the stock is going. Unlike what you are saying, I was right in 2012 when I warned against extreme sentiment and euphoria - the stock was down almost 50% from its highs. This is a fact that you cannot deny.

    But you are right. What do I know. You are financially independent investor who made millions from AAPL stock and is going to make more millions in the next 5-10 years. I'm just a simple guy who is running the highest ranked trading service.

    As for my credibility - thank you, but my track record speaks for itself. In less than 3 years, I built an options service ranked #1 for members satisfaction and consistently ranked among the top ten newsletters (out of 400+ newsletters) by Pro-Trading-Profits for performance. Hundreds of happy members, the most transparent track record.

    So at this point, we will just have to agree to disagree.

    I will continue trading options and making outstanding returns for myself and my members, you will continue buying AAPL stock, even at 52w highs.

    I will continue doing smart consuming (which to me means doing my homework and not jumping into ANY product at the launch date), you will continue blindly buying Apple products no matter what.

    We both know NOTHING about Apple and where its stock will be in 5-10 years - the only difference is that I fully admit it while you pretend to KNOW. I just don't need to in order to continue making money. Another difference between us is that you think that you are better than me because you are an "investor" and I am a "trader". Guess what? Wrong again. My proof is in my track record, open for everyone to see. Where is yours?
    Sep 20, 2014. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    You are absolutely right. But it also depends what you call "the long term". 10 years? 20? 30? Some people don't have that much time. If someone started in 2000, how long did it take just to get his money back?

    In my opinion, buy and hold without any hedges is not a smart move. You might got lucky if you started in 2003 or 2009, but you have no way to know in advance. This is why being hedged will pay off in the long term.
    Sep 20, 2014. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Wizard,

    You keep saying I'm bearish - when in fact, I really don't care which way the stock goes. Please show me one place when I told anyone to sell AAPL (or any other stock). My only claim is that behavior of many Apple fanboys is not rational, and there are dozens examples to support that claim. To me, no company deserves a cult behavior, and you prove me right again and again with your hysterical and irrational responses. But I guess you won't let the facts to confuse you.

    You said that I cost novices potential fortunes. The truth is that I helped HUNDREDS of traders to make thousands of dollars, via my articles on SA or my subscription service. I was #1 contributor in options category before SA discontinued options articles. I was getting dozens grateful emails every days from readers who made tons of money following my approach.

    All my trades are shared in real time and can be fully verified. I don't buy AAPL, but I don't short it either. But I never claimed that my style is the only one that can make money. Unlike you, I also never claimed that I "know" where the stock is going - while in fact, you have no idea.
    Sep 20, 2014. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    There is one simple difference between me and you (and rest of the Apple fanatics).

    Technology changes so quickly and is so unpredictable. We both have NO IDEA where AAPL stock (or any other stock) will be 5-10 years from now. But I fully admit that I don't know, while you pretend to know and even throw numbers (I have seen all kinds of crazy numbers).

    History repeats itself. Not always, but many times. Those who don't learn history will make the same mistakes over and over again.
    Sep 20, 2014. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    If I told you that I have, would you believe me? Probably not, so why bother?
    Sep 20, 2014. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    fritz68,

    It is interesting that you selected my AAPL trades from my SO track record, but ignored the trades I shared with SA reader in my articles:

    The Bull Credit spread from December 13, 2011 produced a 42% gain in 6 weeks.
    The Iron Condor from January 10, 2012 produced a 28% gain in 2 weeks.
    The Bear Call Spread combined with the weekly RICs from February 14, 2012 produced a 15% gain in 5 weeks.
    The Iron Condor from March 5, 2012 produced a 18% gain in one week.
    The Long Butterfly from March 19, 2012 produced a 35% gain in three days.

    There is no doubt that my AAPL trades in the last year or so were less successful than before. But they were part of well diversified options portfolio. The portfolio as a WHILE produced average annualized return of 121%, according to pro-trading-profits.

    It is always convenient to pull few isolated trades and ignore the big picture. But at least you had a chance to see my full track record, which I will see as a positive. And you had a chance to see that unlike other services, I don't hide my losses. ALL trades are in the track record for everyone to see.

    As for your comparison to buy and hold - why not to compare to those who bought on September 2012 and are barely breakeven by now?
    Sep 20, 2014. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    I'm wondering who is insulting whom? And no, I did not delete any of your comments. I'm just not sure what are those numbers and what you are trying to prove? Are those your trades? AAPL options? Do we have any reliable way to know that you actually made those trades? Are you willing to share your trades in real time, like I did when SA allowed options articles?
    Sep 20, 2014. 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Once again, you claim that I'm AAPL bear, which I'm not. Personally, I couldn't care less which way the stock is headed. I made tons of money with AAPL playing it with options, and will continue to do so. Just FYI, I own iPad and very happy with it. I owned iPhone and replaced it 6 months ago with HTC, and find it at at least equal quality as iPhone, at significantly cheaper price. But at my next upgrade, I'm open to consider all products, including iPhone, and will make my decision based on what is the best product at that time. This is the difference between smart consumer and Apple fanatic who will buy Apple product no matter what. The price could be higher, the competitor might be better at that time - the Apple fanatic will not care.

    You view the lines for the new iPhone as excitement, I view it as a cult. Apple might fix some small software bugs, what about hardware bugs? And why wait for them to fix it? meanwhile you are stuck with defective product. It happens to any product, iPhone is no different. What is so urgent that it cannot wait couple months and you need to spend hours in line or overpay double on eBay?
    Sep 19, 2014. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    I'm not sure why you say I was wrong. You probably didn't bother to read some of the links I provided. As mentioned, I never called to short AAPL. I warned against the euphoria and the extreme sentiment in 2012, and I was right. All I'm saying that the current sentiment reminds me 2012. Will the history repeat itself? I have no idea. The same way as you have no way to know where AAPL will be in the next 5-10 years - yet you sound so sure that it goes higher. It's almost like you can predict the future. And this is what scary.

    4 million iPhones pre-ordered in first 24 hours?? You might find it encouraging, I find it scary. Any rational person knows that any high tech product will have many bugs and defects in the first few batches. It's a well known fact. It's true for cars, electronics products, and smartphones are no different. No rational consumer will order any of those products in the first couple months of their production. Yet it seems that Apple fanboys ignore this simple consumer rule time after time. To me, this is a first sign of a bubble.
    Sep 19, 2014. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Record iPhone 6 Pre-Orders Versus No China In 2014 [View article]
    I have a simple question for all Apple fanboys.

    Any rational person knows that any high tech product will have many bugs and defects in the first few batches. It's a well known fact. It's true for cars, electronics products, and smartphones are no different. No rational consumer will order any of those products in the first couple months of their production. Yet it seems that Apple fanboys ignore this simple consumer rule time after time. What is it in the new iPhone that you cannot live without another couple months? Why people would pay on ebay double the retail price for iPhone 6 plus - http://bit.ly/YZ1Rco? Isn't it a bit of insane?
    Sep 19, 2014. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Willy and Wizard,

    Your comments just continue proving me right regarding the fanaticism and blindness of Apple fanboys.

    FYI:
    I was NEVER Apple bear. I NEVER called to short AAPL and never was short AAPL myself. All I'm saying is that the stock sentiment is now exactly like in 2012, and your comments prove it. In fact, if you look at some of my articles back in 2012, I warned against the exact same sentiment when the stock was at $650-700, and I was right.

    I'm not an Apple bull or bear. I don't care about the company fundamentals. I don't want to predict where the stock is going in the next month, year or 5 years. If I can predict where the stock won't go in the next month, this is good enough for me.

    But many of my readers profited from the non-directional AAPL trades that I shared - ALL of them made double digit gains. Here are few examples:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The Bull Credit spread from December 13, 2011 produced a 42% gain in 6 weeks.
    The Iron Condor from January 10, 2012 produced a 28% gain in 2 weeks.
    The Bear Call Spread combined with the weekly RICs from February 14, 2012 produced a 15% gain in 5 weeks.
    The Iron Condor from March 5, 2012 produced a 18% gain in one week.
    The Long Butterfly from March 19, 2012 produced a 35% gain in three days.

    So Willy, why would I be grumpy? I'm making triple digit gains with my non-directional stuff year after year without really caring which way AAPL or any other stock goes.


    Sep 19, 2014. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    You mist be 10 years old then.. because according to my memory, I remember at least 2 crashes in the last 14 years (2000 and 2008), both over 40%. Another one was in 1987 (30%).
    Sep 18, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    "OF COURSE you're going to find that most people who were buying and selling a lot underperformed. That's a given."

    That's true only if you buy when the market goes up and sell when the market goes down. There are many ways to trade a LOT and outperform by a LOT. But you need to understand what you are doing. And most people who trade a lot only THINK that they understand.

    But again, the fact remains. And those who "buy and hold" not necessarily get the 9%/year. It really depends when they started. Those who started in 2007, it will take years till they see an "average" return of 9%/year.
    Sep 18, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    No, hedges are for people who don't want to lose 40-50% of their account.

    If you lose 50%, you need 100% gain to get back to even. Many people forget this simple fact.

    If you bought 5 years ago, you are in a good shape. What if you bought 7 years ago (2007)? How about those who bought in March 2000?
    Sep 18, 2014. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    It doesn't matter how you call them, the fact remains. It's not that a small part unperformed, we are talking about AVERAGE equity fund investor.

    Many of them are not necessarily speculators. read the article to see the reasons for underperformance.
    Sep 18, 2014. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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