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  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Thank you for your advise. I did - more than 100 articles actually. And accumulated over 2500 followers. That's 25 followers per article. Compare it to other contributors. But my specialty is options, and SA discontinued the options category. Since I don't like to write just to gain page views, I don't write anymore.
    May 25, 2015. 11:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    When you have thousands of readers, maybe you should take what you write more seriously? You know very well that many readers take SA articles at face value. This is just a reality.
    May 25, 2015. 09:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    And what makes his opinion more valid than others, except for the fact that he owns few million shares? And if he sees something that he doesn't like, do you believe he will tell you before selling?

    In fact, if someone else was doing what Icahn is doing, he would be probably used by the SEC.
    May 25, 2015. 09:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    I'm not asking you to agree with me, but this is my opinion.

    As for my judgement - I don't see how it is related. But since you mentioned it - I'm not telling my subscribers or anyone else to rely on my judgement. My goal is to teach people to trade options and learn to make their own decisions. That's it. I'm not an investment adviser, I don't tell people what to do and I don't pretend to know things that I don't know.
    May 25, 2015. 08:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Agree. But charts are not the only tuning I'm looking at. What would make me cautious if I owned the stock is the sentiment. When people start throwing those ridiculous price targets with such level of certainty, it screams caution. When everyone is so bullish, who is left to buy?

    I'm not saying to sell the stock or short it. I'm saying that nobody can predict where the stock will be a month or a year from now. There are too many unknowns in the stock market. You can say "I believe the stock is undervalued and should trade higher" but when so many people pretend to KNOW that the stock will be $240 (or whatever ridiculous target) a year from now, it screams caution.

    I usually don't make predictions. But if I were forced to make one, this is my prediction:

    Assuming there is no severe market correction, I would bet that AAPL will be higher a year from now. But I would also bet with 99% of certainty that it will NOT reach $240 a year from now.
    May 25, 2015. 07:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Well said.
    May 25, 2015. 07:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    WWDC is a classic case of "buy the rumor sell the news". The price is usually slightly higher heading to the event, and then somewhere mid day it starts to decline.

    I was buying put bear spreads a day before the event every year. Works like switch watch. This is what I call putting probabilities in your favor.
    May 25, 2015. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Why it reminds me 2012 once again, when everyone was so sure the stock is going to $1,000 by the year end? Instead, it went to $390.
    May 25, 2015. 05:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Good approach - but you are not making foolish short term predictions.
    May 25, 2015. 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Weight On Dividends [View article]
    Owned or averaged down - they still lost very substantial amounts of money. The rest is semantics.

    What is important is the fact that a lot of people owned C just for the dividend yield, and didn't sell or averaged down because the yield became even higher as the stock price declined. And this is the main danger of dividend investing - you become blinded by the yield and ignore the stock price.
    May 25, 2015. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    "The entire market is a guess :-)"

    No it's not. It's a game of probabilities. And probability of AAPL reaching $140 by the end of May is now less than 2% - yet you insist to write article after article telling us the opposite.
    May 25, 2015. 05:06 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Congrats, Richard! You found a winning formula:

    1. Write an article based on ridiculous, meaningless and provocative short term prediction.
    2. Since this is AAPL, the article will attract 200-300 comments (half of them even more ridiculous and meaningless than the article itself) and few thousands page views.
    3. Repeat the process each week.

    If your prediction is false, repeat the process next month, with a new target date. Options traders call it rolling losing trades to hide losses.

    Just for your information, the weekly 140 calls have delta of 1.97, which means 1.97% chance that the stock will reach your $140 target by Friday.
    May 25, 2015. 05:01 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140 By End Of May: It's A Mathematical Problem [View article]
    "The 130 puts only have a higher return if it stays below 135. Above 135 and owning stock wins." - not if you consider return on margin. The puts require only 2.5k margin, so maximum return on margin is 20%. And if you think AAPL will be above 135 in 3 months, you can sell 135 puts at $7.5, representing 30% return on margin.
    May 25, 2015. 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Weight On Dividends [View article]
    mjs_28s,

    I agree with everything you are saying - and yet I believe that "millions owned C and other financial stocks till the second half of 2008" is a correct statement - otherwise those stocks would crash much earlier, after the fist signs of the bubble.
    May 25, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140 By End Of May: It's A Mathematical Problem [View article]
    I have a great respect for Reel Ken. I think he is one of the best SA contributors. His articles are always informative, actionable and not trying to make any foolish predictions.

    I also read his article about AAPL and the calendars - http://seekingalpha.co.... Please note what he says: "as an AAPL Bull, I wouldn't engage in an ATM Calendar Spread on AAPL." And he is absolutely right at this point. But you can be an AAPL Bull (or bear) in the long term, but still think that the stock will consolidate in the short term.

    You can also use slightly higher strike if you are bullish in the short term. Or diagonal spread. The possibilities are endless with options. With stocks, you can only go long or short. With options, you can structure your strategy and the trade based on your short or long term belief. And the beauty is that if you structure the trade correctly, you can be slightly wrong and still make money.

    I believe you will have a hard time to argue that with the right strategies, you can get MUCH higher returns with less risk with options than with the stock. The most trivial example is replacing the stock with naked puts. a 3 months 130 put is around $5 today. You keep the whole premium if AAPL stays above 130 in 3 months. And if it goes below 130, then you are assigned the stock, effectively buying it at 5% discount. Much higher return with much lower risk. Yet most people still consider options to be risky.
    May 25, 2015. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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