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  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    There is a new Niederhoffer today - Karen the super trader.

    http://bit.ly/1Jdq13Z

    Same strategies. And Tom Sosnoff from tastytrade promoting her.
    Apr 30, 2015. 10:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Generally speaking, I believe that options tend to overprice the risk, so options sellers should have an edge over time. I like trading iron condors and calendars on indexes like RUT and SPX, with pretty good success. The key is risk management. Those trades have high probability of success, but it's absolutely critical to make sure that one big loss doesn't wipe out months of gains.

    The only time I buy options is straddles before earnings, to take advantage of increasing IV before earnings. You can read about it here - http://bit.ly/1bWyOgg
    Apr 29, 2015. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Drawbacks Of Apple's Cash Hoard Are Starting To Show [View article]
    In trading, "always" is not necessarily 100%. Last cycle was an exception, not the rule (6% move up).

    Trading is a game of probabilities. If a pattern happens even 51% of the time, what's the point to bet against it? In case of AAPL, the stock went down 7 out of 12 last cycles day after earnings. And when it went up, only twice it went up enough for the calls to make money. That's 83% probability against you.
    Apr 29, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    Yes. One of the strategies we implement is buying long term puts and financing them by selling short term puts at certain ratio. Take a look:

    http://bit.ly/1bVyLRV
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Drawbacks Of Apple's Cash Hoard Are Starting To Show [View article]
    AAPL has always been a classic case of "buy the rumor sell the news". Yet all Apple fanboys seems surprised each time it happens. And they continue buying calls ahead of earnings, while it has been proved again and again that buying AAPL options before earnings is, on average, a losing proposition. Amazing.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    One way not to worry about all that stuff is trading options.

    This is what one of our members posted today on our forum:

    "With earnings trading, I don't really watch the index and I don't care. I am only looking at my straddles and calendars. This has been a big change for me when I moved to exclusively trading earnings and nothing else and its really nice to not worry about everything that can go wrong in the market."

    If you still want to hold your long positions, there are many ways to hedge them with options, with minimal or no cost.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It's Different [View article]
    "The four most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different."

    "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it"
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Dow 30 Rebalance [View article]
    Good article Bill.

    Why they still insist to keep this absurd price weighting is really beyond me.
    Feb 25, 2015. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: In Need Of A Little Adult Supervision [View article]
    Right.. so is Mercedes, BWM, Audi, Lexus etc. for thousands of dollars less.

    And if you have $100M, I assume you will buy something like Rolls Royce.
    Feb 15, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: In Need Of A Little Adult Supervision [View article]
    Frankly, I have a hard time to understand who in his right mind would pay 80-100k for a car with less than 10 years history, unproven technology and limited driving range, when you can buy a Mercedes, the best car in the history, for tens of thousands less. It's definitely a nice car, and I would probably buy it if it was maybe 40-50k.
    Feb 15, 2015. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: In Need Of A Little Adult Supervision [View article]
    Most people trying to buy the dip, sell the top, make all kinds of evaluations, read balance sheets etc.

    We are making money on TSLA stock each cycle with non-directional options strategies.

    Last 6 cycles trades returns: +28%, +31%, +37%, +26%, +26%, +23%

    http://bit.ly/1A5gEQv
    Feb 13, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy 20 Year Backtest [View article]
    I backtested the strategy using OTM bull put spreads for SPY and TLT with deltas of ~35 of the short puts. It made money every year except 2008, and the loss in 2008 was less than using SPY only. I think it's a solid strategy. Of course no strategy will make money 100% of the time, but negative correlation between SPY and TLT was very consistent in the last 7 years.
    Jan 18, 2015. 10:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steady Options 2014 - Year In Review [View instapost]
    Thanks.
    Jan 6, 2015. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 6 Sweet Predictions For 2015 [View article]
    Nobody can be right all the time. I believe what he meant in his statement is that you should not base your investment decisions on your predictions. Predictions are good for entertainment purposes only. You can read my articles (the links in my previous comment) to see how worthless most predictions are, and how dangerous it could be to base any investment decisions on predictions, prices targets etc.
    Jan 1, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 6 Sweet Predictions For 2015 [View article]
    The simple truth is that most predictions are no more than a coin flip. I clearly showed it in some of my articles:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The biggest problem with predictions is that some of the less experienced investors might actually act on them. Of course most predictions will be correct - EVENTUALLY. But as we know, in the stock market timing is everything. If someone is predicting a stock market crash, at some point he will be right. Some of those who "predicted" the 2008 crash looked like geniuses - but most people forgot that they predicted a market crash for years.

    Will John Chambers retire from Cisco? Of course he will. Eventually. Will it happen in 2015? The chances are no better than 50/50.

    Yes, we all have opinions and predictions, but personally, I know that my predictions are worthless, so I never base my investment decisions on my (or anyone else's) predictions. To me, they are mostly for entertainment purposes (plus the analysts have to justify their fat salaries).

    Finally, I would suggest to give a little respect to Warren Buffett - although I suspect he doesn't really need your approval.
    Dec 31, 2014. 07:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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