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  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Here are some of the third party smartphone reviews:

    http://bit.ly/1iNzy8y (iphone ranked #4)
    http://cnet.co/VgZ3hi (iphone ranked #5)
    http://bit.ly/1iNzy8B (iphone ranked #1)
    http://bit.ly/1iNzy8E (iphone ranked #1)

    Consumer Reports ranks the iPhone #4, after Samsung Galaxy, LG and HTC.

    So iPhone is one of the best phones, the best according to some reviewers, but definitely not years ahead of the competitors. Apple is losing its market share to competitors, and there is a good reason for this.
    Dec 8 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Most of the people upgrade to a new smart phone (no matter which one) after 3 years for two reasons:

    1. They can do very cheaply due to subsidized rates.
    2. They don't have much choice because most of those phone are not designed to last more than 3 years. For example, if your battery drains, it might cost you similar price to change the battery and to upgrade to a new phone. btw, this is one of the reasons why Apple charges you $80 for a new battery that should cost no more than $20.

    It has been a whole since I posted comments on Apple article, but I see that nothing has changed. People who say that Apple products are perfect and everyone else is junk and the stock price is going to double within a year, are heroes. Everyone else is the enemy of the state.

    I warned several times during 2012 that AAPL price is in a bubble. I presented few way to trade the stock, most of those trades made 20-50% in a short period of time. Some people listened, others bought the stock at $700 just to watch it going below $400.

    I have no idea where the stock will be a year from now. But unlike many others, I don't pretend to know. I'm using non-directional options strategies on AAPL and other stocks that produce 50-60% annual return year after year. If you want to buy AAPL at $560, $600 or $700, by all means, do it. If you are ready to buy an overpriced product that offers no real advantage over competition, be my guest.

    P.S. your personal attack on Canadians is shameless. I reported you to SA stuff.
    Dec 8 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    I consider US and Canada very similar in many areas, including consumers mentality. Most people in Canada change their phones every 3 years, like in US. And no, I don't use blackberry. My wife has one from her work and hates it.

    Please don't twist my words. I never said Apple does bad products. They make good products, the only problem is that today they are not better than the competitions, but they continue to charge more.
    Dec 8 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Richard, do you know someone who holds his iPhone (or any other smart phone) for more than 3 years? I don't. Apple is not alone here - most products today are not made to last more than 2-3 years. After 3 years, they allow you to upgrade your phone for $100-150. Who do you think pays the difference between $100 and the full price of $700? Santa Claus? No, it's you and me, by paying more each month.

    If I didn't like Apple, I wouldn't buy their products. The difference is that I don't blindly consider their products the best only because of the barnd. 3-4 years ago, the iPhone was the best in any review - today it's not. It is still ONE of the best products, but many other products are similar or better in some areas, and iPhone does not justify to be priced higher than the competitors anymore.
    Dec 7 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    This is exactly my point - they make them last only 2-3 years on purpose to force you into an upgrade. Not everywhere the upgrade is free, and I can get a similar product for $100-150 cheaper, there is no reason for me to continue using iPhone. And if the upgrade is free, is it REALLY free? Or they get their money from you in other ways?

    Apple is making money exactly on the mentality of people like you who think that $700 product is not supposed to last more than 3 years. This mentality can hold only in the US, rest of the world have much smarter consumers, and it will not last for long in US either.

    The current iPhone has no significant upgrades compared to iPhone 4, and for most people there is no real reason to upgrade.
    Dec 7 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    There is a reason why the stock PE is so low. Do you think you know something that millions of other investors don't?

    I started using Apple products 3 years ago. My iPhone is 2.5 years old, it was working fine till now, but since couple weeks ago, the battery drains after 2 hours (without any use). It is almost like they make those products last for 2-3 years only on purpose in order to force you to upgrade.

    My 6 months old iPad is now having trouble with WiFi if the router is on another floor. It was fine when I bought it and other products work fine, so it's not the router.

    To me, the bottom line is simple: Apple used to make products that are superior to the competition, but this is not the case anymore. However, they continue charging Lexus prices for GM/Ford like products.

    I'm in Canada, and Rogers is charging $230 for the iPhone with 2 years contract and $100 for most other smartphones. I can tell you that my next phone will NOT Apple, and I'm sure there are a LOT of customers applying the same logic.
    Dec 7 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    The 10% increase prior to China Mobile deal was pure insider trading.

    The stock is going to $700?? Why not to $1000? Some people just learned nothing after the $700 bubble burst by 40%+.

    AAPL is now a "normal" stock with 10-15% annual growth best case. The days of 50-100% growth in sales, profits and stock price are history now.
    Dec 6 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Third Quarter Earnings May Put You To Sleep [View article]
    apacheman, this is so true. I remember I had few articles calling for some caution when the stock was around $600-650 - I was almost declared an enemy of the state. When the stock was at $705, all Apple fanboys were so sure it is going to $1,000 in no time.
    Jul 16 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Third Quarter Earnings May Put You To Sleep [View article]
    This is true for a long straddle, not short. The July week4 430 straddle is currently trading at 23.50 which implies 5.3% move. The stock has a history of 9-12% moves. Can you see what happens if it moves 10% which is $43? The straddle will be worth around $45, that's almost 100% loss on credit (less if you calculate return on margin, but still significant).
    Jul 15 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Third Quarter Earnings May Put You To Sleep [View article]
    So you are willing to risk losing 50-100% for the potential to make 5-10%? Doesn't sound like a good risk/reward to me.
    Jul 15 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Third Quarter Earnings May Put You To Sleep [View article]
    I definitely wouldn't do a short straddle. The straddle is priced at $24 which implies 5.6% move. AAPL has a history of much bigger moves, the risk is too high. Plus with naked options, your margin is pretty high (around 9k), so even if the stock moves only 2-3%, the return on margin is likely to be only 5-10%.
    Jul 14 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]
    The simple truth is that every company is worth how much the market is willing to pay for it. Period. That means that today, AAPL is worth $460 ($453 as I type this). Tomorrow it might be worth more. Or less. Anyone telling you that he knows that AAPL will be worth more a year from now is simply misleading you. AAPL is the most followed stock in the world, what makes you think that you know something that others don't to predict how much it will be worth in the future?

    The market will do what the market has to do.
    Feb 20 10:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From The Fight Of The Greeks [View article]
    I usually use indexes for ICs. Doing IC with low priced stocks like CSCO will be very commissions consuming. In general, you can do IC before earnings if you think that options are overpriced, but you need to be aware that those are much riskier trades.
    Feb 11 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
    Apple were way ahead of competition couple years ago. Today they are playing catchup. Competitors are selling phones at equal or better quality at lower prices. How long can they fool people to buy a $700 iPhone 5 which is only marginally better than a $450 iPhone 4?
    Jan 23 06:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
    I hear that AAPL is a buying opportunity all the way down from $600. Didn't they say the same thing about RIMM couple years ago? Or AMZN back in 2000-2001?
    Jan 23 06:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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