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  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    "I have learned two things over the years, never let a large gain become a small gain, and never let any gain become a loss. Trailing stops allow me to do both."

    Well said. Another thing I learned over the years is not to fight the market. If the market says a stock is worth $130, it is what it's worth, no matter what Icahn or anyone else is saying.
    May 26, 2015. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    The difference is that people listen to Icahn. So yes, he is a pump and dumper because he would not come with those ridiculous targets (and I'm sure he is aware how ridiculous they are) if he didn't own few million shares.
    May 26, 2015. 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    You haven't figured it out by now, after each article got 300-400 comments, and this one is well on its way to get to the same numbers? Hint: each comment brings few dozens extra page views.
    May 26, 2015. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Is Wrong, Apple Is Not Worth $240 Today [View article]
    Currently the options market doesn't even have 240 strikes. The highest strike is 195, and June 2016 195 calls price 8% probability that the stock will be there by June 2016. So you can understand how absurd the Icahn's target is.
    May 26, 2015. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140 By End Of May: It's A Mathematical Problem [View article]
    The exact margin will probably vary between brokers, but in any case it is significantly lower than buying the stock.

    "if the stock follows the Icahn price of 200+" - currently the options market doesn't even have 240 strikes. The highest strike is 195, and June 2016 195 calls price 8% probability that the stock will be there by June 2016. So you can understand how absurd the Icahn's target is.

    "I don't let the tax tail wag the investment dog." - very well said. People worry too much about taxes and let it impact their investment decisions. If I have to pay tax, that means I made a profit. Isn't it a good thing?
    May 26, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    To be more precise:

    1 standard deviation move is between 128.05 and 132.85, with the stock currently at 130.40. But with increased market volatility, all bets are off.

    Probability of closing at 140 or higher is currently 0.25%.
    May 26, 2015. 11:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Those attacks are not personal. They just express my opinion about the articles.

    Maybe if more people contacted SA and tell them they are interested to read about options, they would revert their decision.
    May 26, 2015. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Retired One,

    This would be a very difficult task. As a non-directional trader, I prefer to look where the stock will NOT be rather where it WILL be. It gives me better flexibility to structure my trades. But 4 trading days is too short time horizon anyway.

    Look at today as an example. The markets selling out hard, and AAPL is not immune, down almost 1%. So what are all those "predictions" worth? To me, they have ZERO value.

    Of course you might be better if you are referring to longer time period (1-2 years), but even then, so many things could happen! What if we get a general market correction of 15-20% (or more)? Will AAPL be immune? I highly doubt it.
    May 26, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Thank you for your advise. I did - more than 100 articles actually. And accumulated over 2500 followers. That's 25 followers per article. Compare it to other contributors. But my specialty is options, and SA discontinued the options category. Since I don't like to write just to gain page views, I don't write anymore.
    May 25, 2015. 11:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    When you have thousands of readers, maybe you should take what you write more seriously? You know very well that many readers take SA articles at face value. This is just a reality.
    May 25, 2015. 09:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    And what makes his opinion more valid than others, except for the fact that he owns few million shares? And if he sees something that he doesn't like, do you believe he will tell you before selling?

    In fact, if someone else was doing what Icahn is doing, he would be probably used by the SEC.
    May 25, 2015. 09:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    I'm not asking you to agree with me, but this is my opinion.

    As for my judgement - I don't see how it is related. But since you mentioned it - I'm not telling my subscribers or anyone else to rely on my judgement. My goal is to teach people to trade options and learn to make their own decisions. That's it. I'm not an investment adviser, I don't tell people what to do and I don't pretend to know things that I don't know.
    May 25, 2015. 08:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Agree. But charts are not the only tuning I'm looking at. What would make me cautious if I owned the stock is the sentiment. When people start throwing those ridiculous price targets with such level of certainty, it screams caution. When everyone is so bullish, who is left to buy?

    I'm not saying to sell the stock or short it. I'm saying that nobody can predict where the stock will be a month or a year from now. There are too many unknowns in the stock market. You can say "I believe the stock is undervalued and should trade higher" but when so many people pretend to KNOW that the stock will be $240 (or whatever ridiculous target) a year from now, it screams caution.

    I usually don't make predictions. But if I were forced to make one, this is my prediction:

    Assuming there is no severe market correction, I would bet that AAPL will be higher a year from now. But I would also bet with 99% of certainty that it will NOT reach $240 a year from now.
    May 25, 2015. 07:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    Well said.
    May 25, 2015. 07:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    WWDC is a classic case of "buy the rumor sell the news". The price is usually slightly higher heading to the event, and then somewhere mid day it starts to decline.

    I was buying put bear spreads a day before the event every year. Works like switch watch. This is what I call putting probabilities in your favor.
    May 25, 2015. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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