What do you think about using a levered bond ETF to get the leverage some are asking about? They have decay issues, but no matter how you do it, leverage is not free, even for Dalio.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
You make some good points, but I have one comment on what I see missing in this article: More analysis on smart phone and table potential addressable market over the next few years and what you think/predict Apple's piece of that market will be.
WRT innovation: The iPhone was launched in 2007, the iPad in 2010. How often does Apple need to invent/re-invent a market? The media expects it every year.
Recent price action: Don't forget about the macro. Apple's stock does not exist in a vacuum. Fiscal cliff effects?
Apple Is Sandbagging More Than You Think [View article]
I used to track DR in painful detail because it was creating such a huge distortion during the subscription accounting days. Thanks for bringing this issue back up and adding deferred tax to the discussion.
A good place to look for this effect is the SOCF in the operations section. Deferred income tax increased by 4.4B and net DR increased by 2.8B. Of course, with DR, there are deferred COGS, so the 2.8B does not flow straight to the income line.
Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
Like dm33 said, started out good, but went down the road of cliches. As a long time Apple investor and bull, I am taking pause here to be open minded and re-evaluate about where the company is going and its future. We should all do that from time to time.
Stay away from the pitfalls of Apple critics like: "too far too fast" "its too big" "nothing lasts forever" Comparing GDP to Market cap - don't think so. GDP to Apple revenues would make more sense.
These types of approaches are why the critics get skewered.
I thought your idea of an earnings bubble vice valuation bubble is something to think about, especially with Apple guiding so low on gross margins.
Anyway, thanks for some (not all) interesting thoughts.
Here's a new Apple (AAPL) rumor: Tech analyst Paul Mueller claims "at least three people close to Apple" have told him there are next-gen iPad prototypes featuring widescreen (16:9 aspect ratio) displays. Many Android tablets sport widescreen displays, which lend themselves well to multimedia viewing, but the iPad has stuck with a 4:3 aspect ratio, which works better for reading and other portrait-mode activities. Judging by market share trends, consumers aren't complaining. [View news story]
I'm sure Apple has prototypes for many products that never see the production line.
Is It Finally Time To Take Profits On Apple? [View article]
"Apple is a great company that has been a fantastic investment but investors would be wise to be cautious as the rebound from earnings was fueled by a collection of stale rumors relating to the New iPhone, iPad Mini and iTV. These rumors have been circulating for months, so why did the stock pop this past month following its disappointing earnings?"
Answer: Apple rallies on stale news and rumors. I just does.
Apple Unlikely To Report Less Than $64 In EPS In FY2012: A Look At Recent History [View article]
Tyler,
I think the model/pattern may have slightly shifted with the launch of the iPhone 4S at the beginning of CY11 Q4 and demand still running strong into CY12 Q1.
Have you considered this? It may slightly increase Q1's contribution to CY12 EPS.
Using Friday's Options Activity To Prepare For Monday's Market [View article]
With FY13 EPS in the $70s or $80 range, I like the 630 LEAP call. With reasonably low risk will break even, but likely will more than double your money.
Q2 2012 Predictions Based On Apple Guidance History And Actual Growth [View article]
For your next article, I suggest you run a correllation analsyis of how much they beat revenue guidance vs how much they beat their EPS guidance. I suspect they won't be as correlated as you might expect due to deviations from GM and Tax guidance, although tax guidance has tighted up alot starting about 6 quarters ago.
If you can nail the revenue number and the iPhone mix, the rest should fall into place.
Q2 2012 Predictions Based On Apple Guidance History And Actual Growth [View article]
When it comes to using AAPL guidance to predict actual outcomes, I prefer to use this method only on Revenue. EPS has too much noise built into it. As this quarter shows, the iPhone mix was much larger than expected and it caused GM to be way over guidance. They used to have huge guidance errors on tax rate, which also caused the same effect.
Thanks for the comments on my article. To my point, I nailed Revenue, but was way off on EPS.
Will The iPhone Mini Save Apple? [View article]
All-Weather ETF Portfolio [View article]
What do you think about using a levered bond ETF to get the leverage some are asking about? They have decay issues, but no matter how you do it, leverage is not free, even for Dalio.
The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
WRT innovation: The iPhone was launched in 2007, the iPad in 2010. How often does Apple need to invent/re-invent a market? The media expects it every year.
Recent price action: Don't forget about the macro. Apple's stock does not exist in a vacuum. Fiscal cliff effects?
Apple Is Sandbagging More Than You Think [View article]
A good place to look for this effect is the SOCF in the operations section. Deferred income tax increased by 4.4B and net DR increased by 2.8B. Of course, with DR, there are deferred COGS, so the 2.8B does not flow straight to the income line.
Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
Stay away from the pitfalls of Apple critics like:
"too far too fast"
"its too big"
"nothing lasts forever"
Comparing GDP to Market cap - don't think so. GDP to Apple revenues would make more sense.
These types of approaches are why the critics get skewered.
I thought your idea of an earnings bubble vice valuation bubble is something to think about, especially with Apple guiding so low on gross margins.
Anyway, thanks for some (not all) interesting thoughts.
Here's a new Apple (AAPL) rumor: Tech analyst Paul Mueller claims "at least three people close to Apple" have told him there are next-gen iPad prototypes featuring widescreen (16:9 aspect ratio) displays. Many Android tablets sport widescreen displays, which lend themselves well to multimedia viewing, but the iPad has stuck with a 4:3 aspect ratio, which works better for reading and other portrait-mode activities. Judging by market share trends, consumers aren't complaining. [View news story]
Is It Finally Time To Take Profits On Apple? [View article]
Answer: Apple rallies on stale news and rumors. I just does.
Apple Earnings Estimates For Q3-12 [View article]
Thanks for sharing. Good analysis.
An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
Great article. And, in light of the overload of Apple articles, it is unique.
Thanks, Stefan
Apple's Position In The 2012 Mobile Market [View article]
Gene is usually optimistically conservative, so this is a not an insignificant endorsement.
Apple Unlikely To Report Less Than $64 In EPS In FY2012: A Look At Recent History [View article]
Apple Unlikely To Report Less Than $64 In EPS In FY2012: A Look At Recent History [View article]
I think the model/pattern may have slightly shifted with the launch of the iPhone 4S at the beginning of CY11 Q4 and demand still running strong into CY12 Q1.
Have you considered this? It may slightly increase Q1's contribution to CY12 EPS.
Thanks for the article,
Stefan
Using Friday's Options Activity To Prepare For Monday's Market [View article]
Q2 2012 Predictions Based On Apple Guidance History And Actual Growth [View article]
If you can nail the revenue number and the iPhone mix, the rest should fall into place.
Q2 2012 Predictions Based On Apple Guidance History And Actual Growth [View article]
Thanks for the comments on my article. To my point, I nailed Revenue, but was way off on EPS.
Nice analysis.
Stefan