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Stefan Sidahmed  

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  • Apple Fiscal Q1: Eye-Popping Results To Come [View article]
    Why did you assume a net margin? Once you have GM, Apple provides the rest of the numbers OpEx, OIE and tax rate.

    ($70.1M x 39%) = $27.34M
    - $5.5M opex
    + $0.325 OIE
    = 22.164
    x (1 - 26.5% tax rate)
    = $16.3M net profit, which is a net margin of 23.2% and $2.76/share.

    Thanks.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Will Be Apple's Year: Raising Price Target To $174 [View article]
    Alex - A 45% GM is going to be quite a hurdle. Yes, ASP will be up, but these phones are more expensive to build than prior phones. I would be interested in more detail on how Apple will get to 45%. I would be very pleased with 40% or 41%.

    Thanks for the article.
    Jan 1, 2015. 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: iPhone Sales May Top $50 Billion [View article]
    Great analysis. Thank you.

    What are you projecting for iPhone gross margins for the current quarter?
    Dec 22, 2014. 07:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The iPhone Mini Save Apple? [View article]
    Didn't know Apple needed saving.
    Feb 19, 2013. 09:25 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All-Season ETF Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    What do you think about using a levered bond ETF to get the leverage some are asking about? They have decay issues, but no matter how you do it, leverage is not free, even for Dalio.
    Jan 8, 2013. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
    You make some good points, but I have one comment on what I see missing in this article: More analysis on smart phone and table potential addressable market over the next few years and what you think/predict Apple's piece of that market will be.

    WRT innovation: The iPhone was launched in 2007, the iPad in 2010. How often does Apple need to invent/re-invent a market? The media expects it every year.

    Recent price action: Don't forget about the macro. Apple's stock does not exist in a vacuum. Fiscal cliff effects?
    Nov 9, 2012. 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Sandbagging More Than You Think [View article]
    I used to track DR in painful detail because it was creating such a huge distortion during the subscription accounting days. Thanks for bringing this issue back up and adding deferred tax to the discussion.

    A good place to look for this effect is the SOCF in the operations section. Deferred income tax increased by 4.4B and net DR increased by 2.8B. Of course, with DR, there are deferred COGS, so the 2.8B does not flow straight to the income line.
    Oct 30, 2012. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    Like dm33 said, started out good, but went down the road of cliches. As a long time Apple investor and bull, I am taking pause here to be open minded and re-evaluate about where the company is going and its future. We should all do that from time to time.

    Stay away from the pitfalls of Apple critics like:
    "too far too fast"
    "its too big"
    "nothing lasts forever"
    Comparing GDP to Market cap - don't think so. GDP to Apple revenues would make more sense.

    These types of approaches are why the critics get skewered.

    I thought your idea of an earnings bubble vice valuation bubble is something to think about, especially with Apple guiding so low on gross margins.

    Anyway, thanks for some (not all) interesting thoughts.
    Oct 28, 2012. 01:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's a new Apple (AAPL) rumor: Tech analyst Paul Mueller claims "at least three people close to Apple" have told him there are next-gen iPad prototypes featuring widescreen (16:9 aspect ratio) displays. Many Android tablets sport widescreen displays, which lend themselves well to multimedia viewing, but the iPad has stuck with a 4:3 aspect ratio, which works better for reading and other portrait-mode activities. Judging by market share trends, consumers aren't complaining. [View news story]
    I'm sure Apple has prototypes for many products that never see the production line.
    Sep 26, 2012. 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Finally Time To Take Profits On Apple? [View article]
    "Apple is a great company that has been a fantastic investment but investors would be wise to be cautious as the rebound from earnings was fueled by a collection of stale rumors relating to the New iPhone, iPad Mini and iTV. These rumors have been circulating for months, so why did the stock pop this past month following its disappointing earnings?"

    Answer: Apple rallies on stale news and rumors. I just does.
    Aug 21, 2012. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Estimates For Q3-12 [View article]
    Well thought out. I expect $12 to $13, plus/minus. Point estimates are difficult to defend because you know it will, to some degree, be wrong.

    Thanks for sharing. Good analysis.
    Jul 18, 2012. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
    Travis,

    Great article. And, in light of the overload of Apple articles, it is unique.

    Thanks, Stefan
    Jun 6, 2012. 08:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Position In The 2012 Mobile Market [View article]
    "Gene Munster yesterday slapped a $975 target on the stock..."

    Gene is usually optimistically conservative, so this is a not an insignificant endorsement.
    May 22, 2012. 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Unlikely To Report Less Than $64 In EPS In FY2012: A Look At Recent History [View article]
    ... and reduce the CY12 EPS range you projected.
    May 15, 2012. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Unlikely To Report Less Than $64 In EPS In FY2012: A Look At Recent History [View article]
    Tyler,

    I think the model/pattern may have slightly shifted with the launch of the iPhone 4S at the beginning of CY11 Q4 and demand still running strong into CY12 Q1.

    Have you considered this? It may slightly increase Q1's contribution to CY12 EPS.

    Thanks for the article,
    Stefan
    May 14, 2012. 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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