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Stephen Aniston

 
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  • The Bond Market Explained For CNBC [View article]
    Pretty much. All you have to do is look at the Najarian guy to get a clue.
    May 28 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do We Need A Catalyst For The Next Big Drop In Gold? [View article]
    As if I ordered this story:
    Pomboy: QE impact on economy is underestimated and the slower nominal growth since the taper announcement will cause the Fed to reverse course on the taper
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    This is the thing I keep pointing out to people but nobody is listening to me because everybody is fixated on SPX at 1900 and ignoring the hard facts. The hard facts are 0% growth in Q1 and probably 1% growth in Q2. The taper is hurting the economy - we will be at 1.5% GDP growth this year. Not what the Fed or anybody else is expecting. The funny thing is that if the Fed reverses course both stock and bond and gold markets will go up because inflation is now finally in the 2%+ range the Fed wants it to be.
    May 24 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do We Need A Catalyst For The Next Big Drop In Gold? [View article]
    If banks own the metals warehouses and are market makers, there possibly can't be information gleaned from warehouse workflow in order to set up positioning in the market?!? LOL

    Anybody who thinks that the metals markets are not manipulated, probably should not trade them. They are manipulated and you have to factor that manipulation into your trading. Any metal can perform unreasonably in a month's time. Over the long term, the long term demand and supply smooth things out. But generally, if you see a short term move that doesn't make sense, take the other side and you can put some extra cash in your pocket.
    May 24 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do We Need A Catalyst For The Next Big Drop In Gold? [View article]
    I completely agree Charles. Except that the gold market moves ahead of changes in policy. Gold rose before QE infinity was announced and fell before taper was announced. It moves 6 months to a year before official policy announcement. Announcements are developed over time, there is a lot of people working on these announcements. These people talk to people in the markets. Remember "Sell the News".

    Right now, the Fed is in taper and then raise interest rates mode. The fall of gold down to 33% from the top reflects the discounting of this Fed policy. The next Fed policy is additional easing and that's why I am bullish on gold.

    By the way, isn't Europe going to announce additional easing. That should be supportive of gold, no? May be expectations for additional policy easing in Japan and Europe in the next few months is what is keeping gold from establishing a new low. Just a thought.
    May 24 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stalking The Mysteriously Elusive Correction Beast [View article]
    The market has practically no short interest.
    May 24 05:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penny stock trade booms [View news story]
    Thanks for the tip!
    May 23 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Gold Stocks And ETFs Save Us In The Coming Market Crash? [View article]
    Not so sure about that. During the last correction in August of 2011, gold went up 20% from Aug 1 to Sep 1st and reached an all time high. In that same time period, the SPY lost 19%.

    In 2008 bear market, gold went down in the first 3 months but recovered in the next 3 very quickly and was at par by the time the March 2009 bottom came. So if you had money in gold and held throughout the life of the correction you still had your money at the bottom of the correction to plow into equities.
    May 23 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Weak New Home Sales Report: Short The Bounce In The Homebuilder Stocks [View article]
    Thank you. Finally some objectivity. Could the financial media be more disingenious. I was watching the parade on WSJ and CNBC today and I wanted to throw up.
    May 23 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stalking The Mysteriously Elusive Correction Beast [View article]
    I am not sure. This may make a marginal top like Kevin has been saying. Usually continuation rallies break resistance with a bang. On April 8th, 2013 SPY broke the all time record with a 10 point rally and then rallied 10 more points the next day. This push today was a little weak. We'll see.

    I personally put two shorts in today - shorted tech and financials. Q2 is going to be 1-2% quarter. I have not seen a single actual number that makes this a 3% quarter. If you look at the survey data, things couldn't be better. But despite PMI in 55s for April, industrial production was down from March and retail sales were down as well or barely positive. So people are trying to talk themselves or the retail investors into a strong growth story which I simply don't see actual evidence of. Company earnings grew only 2% on a y/y basis (expectation for 8%). So right now the P/E is getting extended. May be because the yield is lower at 2.5%. It doesn't make sense to me. I am not one to go long at a new high.
    May 23 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stalking The Mysteriously Elusive Correction Beast [View article]
    I am still waiting for a close above 1900. Let's see what happens today.
    May 23 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stalking The Mysteriously Elusive Correction Beast [View article]
    The market response to the housing data today is so funny. "New Home sales are up from March!!!" Well it's spring after all. What everybody seems to omit is this:

    "Compared with a year earlier, sales of new homes were down 4.2%."
    May 23 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New homes sales gain in April; March revised upward [View news story]
    Compared with a year earlier, sales of new homes were down 4.2%.

    So what exactly are we celebrating?
    May 23 02:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do We Need A Catalyst For The Next Big Drop In Gold? [View article]
    @charles - Avi does not have personal spin on fundamentals because guess what? He is not a person. He is a superhuman being. A god! And so are you charles. Tough guy that never makes a mistake. Which is hard to do when you can look back at a chart LOL

    Gold recovered first in 2008 and recovered within 6 months of the fall. The stock markets took 5 years to recover. Gold acted as a hedge to the markets with a 6 month period of time because #1 they fell less and #2 they recovered quickly. You had your money back in 6 months in March 2009. You could've then put those money at the bottom of the markets. Is that not factual?

    If you expect another liquidity crisis in 2014 like 2008, tell me, which company is the Lehman Brothers of 2014? Which is the big bank/investment house that is going to go bankrupt with 600 billion in liabilities? Tell me what is going to make people put all their money in cash this time around?

    A market corrects 20% all the time. Doesn't have to be a liquidity crisis. What happened during the last 15% correction? Gold went up 20% while the SP500 went down 19%. Look it up - August 1st 2011 to September 1st 2011. Your normal correction, money moving from one place to another. It may just happen again, despite what you two demigods think.
    May 23 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do We Need A Catalyst For The Next Big Drop In Gold? [View article]
    Isn't it different this time? As far as I remember interest rates were north of 5% in 2008, gold had been in a bull market since 2001. As far as I can tell now, interest rates are at 0% and gold is down 30% over the past 2 and half years years since 2011. It is indeed different, no?

    It clearly looks like your followers want to have 20/20 hindsight. Rehashing the past, learning the lessons... that are not applicable to the future. People can read what they like. Britney Spears is the most popular artist by twitter followers. I doubt anybody will say that she is the best musician though. So your point is?

    I am still searching for actual analysis.

    As far as I can tell, you are saying that gold is in a secular bear market and therefore short the lower highs and cover the lower lows? So that happened between June 2013 and December 2013 with a new marginal low. You were right to make that call then, if you indeed did.

    But the question today is where is your new lower low since December 2013?

    Gold is not going to go down from 150 dollars in 2 weeks. Who exactly is going to liquidate gold now in bulk? John Paulson already did that in 2013. If you are hoping for that to happen again, good luck. Money is leaving stocks and going into safe havens, one of which is gold. That's why forecast for the past 2 months has been wrong and gold has been stuck in a range instead of trending down.

    Yet again I give you a dollar of analysis for your 2 cents of ego thumping. Most people click on your articles for the comment section. You articles are place for people to discuss gold. Don't flatter yourself too much.
    May 23 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stalking The Mysteriously Elusive Correction Beast [View article]
    At present, there is no buying in the market. The only thing going on is mutual fund managers are selling off small caps to buy big caps. Most small caps are follow are down significantly on the year and big caps are up marginally (0-5%). So the line drive that the SPY is hitting right now is because there is small demand for big caps from the money allocated to small caps. This is evidence by remarkably weak volume on the SP 500. So if most mutual funds that have to be fully invested are moving from high-beta to low-beta and bonds, what happens once that move is completed?
    May 23 07:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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