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Stephen Aniston  

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  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Yup and periods of backwardation are only 5% of the time in the last 10 years. That includes 2008 and 2011. Even in 2008, there was backwardation for 3 month tops and that was pretty much the end of the world then. The world is far from it's end now. Until something like Lehman hits the newwires, there is nothing to worry about. Just so you understand the magnitude of Lehman - Lehman had 600 billion assets under management. Greece's gross national product is 240 billion. So Lehman could buy Greece twice over.
    May 26, 2015. 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Considers A More Seasoned Approach [View article]
    Never trust a bald psychopath.
    May 26, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    OB1981, just get out now and eat your losses. UVXY will not get back to where you bought it, not anytime soon. And after you get out, do not get back into UVXY ever again. If you want to short with leverage, do SPXL. Until the VIX Contango picture changes, UVXY will be heading straight down with no bottom in sight. VXX is bad enough, UVXY is plain bloody murder. Regime change in the VIX is a big deal and there is absolutely nothing that suggests a regime change at this point in time. You first need a 10% selloff followed by a lower high rebound to even consider that there might be a regime change in the VIX. At this point, you can't determine such an event for at least 2 months.

    Do yourself a favor and just get the f-- out.
    May 26, 2015. 10:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Any mechnanical trading system should have a stop loss of some sort based on the daily volatility of the stock traded. If a stock has daily vol of 1% on average, you should stop out at 3% or something like that. If it moves 3% a day, then maybe 10%. The point is once you get 3 bad days in a row, the system gotta cut your losses. So you can have your rules, but you always have to have a stop loss rule as well.
    May 25, 2015. 08:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon plans to launch Etsy rival [View news story]
    This is the same argument people made in 1999 when people said why would people possibly buy dog food from Amazon? Pets.com, period LOL

    Amazon is a shopping. You go, you search, you find, you buy. Anything can fit under that umbrella. And the sellers will go to where the sales are. If they get more traffic at Amazon, they will set up shop there.
    May 23, 2015. 11:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Backwardation is not a normal state for the VIX Futures Curve. In the past 10 years, it has happened for only 6 months during 2008 from Sept to Dec and during 2011 from August to October. So this is 6 months out of 120. In other words 95% of the time, the VIX Futures Curve is in contango formation. In fact, when the VIX Future Curve slides into backwardation, this is an excellent signal that the drawdown in the SPX has ended.

    For more detailed discussion, read here. I can't write the same firman twice :)
    http://bit.ly/1Bjkjc3
    May 23, 2015. 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    When contango is 10%, UVXY will lose about 1% a day with no change in the spot VIX. Daily roll loss is roughly 10% of contango. So if contango is 10%, then UVXY will lose 1% with no change in VIX. If contango is 5%, then the DAILY loss is 0.5%. Add commission fees and a daily loss of 1% as the contango curve is presently constructed, and this is a license to lose money. UVXY only makes money during epic drawdowns that are fast in speed and big in magnitude. If one of these components is weak - slow speed or small magnitude, UVXY loses money. Just don't bother. After doing this for 3 years now, I have made money 1 out of 5 times in UVXY and had to wait a long time for those 3-5 day periods. At the end, it was just a waste of time. There are better ways to make money if you want to gamble.
    May 23, 2015. 04:33 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Never buy UVXY and never buy VXX, unless you are day trader and you really know what you are doing. While UVXY and VXX can be traded for a gain, the periods when you can do that are few and requires a lot of patience and waiting. It's really not worth it. There have been only 6 months in total for the past 10 years when UVXY and VXX would've netted you good money and that was during the Lehman episode from Sep to Dec of 2008 and AAA downgrade from August to Oct in 2011. Outside of that VXX and UVXY are attrocious even when the market goes down. In 2007 when the market was slowly going down, VXX went down despite volatility slowly increasing. You really only make money on major spikes and timing those is a complete crapshoot. You're better off betting on horses. At present there is absolutely no chance for a VIX spike. Once VIX hits below 12, it will stay there for a couple of months before people get tired of complacency.
    May 22, 2015. 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    I can dance the contango!
    May 22, 2015. 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Buying UVXY here or anytime in the next 2-3 months is simply not very smart. We need at least a week of drawdown in the SPX followed by a weak bounce to a lower high to even consider a buy of UVXY. Right now contango and contango roll are murderous for UVXY. Do not touch with 10 foot pole. The vix contango analytics are such that a sudden drop in the SPX is simply not a realistic option right now. Regardless of what you think of stock valuations. I like most people out there think that stocks are too expensive. But the volatility picture suggests that a selloff is a remote possibility.
    May 22, 2015. 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason China Is Buying Up The World's Gold [View article]
    Who else is supposed to control the money in a country? This is like saying military people shouldn't run the military? By definition, bankers are the people who are in charge of the currency.
    May 15, 2015. 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason China Is Buying Up The World's Gold [View article]
    Fantastic article! Good work!
    May 13, 2015. 12:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dudley: Brace for turbulence when Fed hikes [View news story]
    The FED is essentially a slave to the SPX. There is absolutely no evidence to the contrary.
    May 12, 2015. 01:16 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would A Salesforce.com Acquisition Do To Oracle? [View article]
    Not when you pay big speaking fees to Hillary Clinton!
    May 8, 2015. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would A Salesforce.com Acquisition Do To Oracle? [View article]
    Anything to pump the price and keep the loyal following
    May 8, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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