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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    You can't go by options for price prediction. It's based on current volatility and price... really doesn't have anything to do with expectations of future news or company moves. They will price higher around volatile events such as earnings but other than that it's a pretty standard formula.
    Sep 15 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    I figure they have been using it.
    Sep 14 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    Crunching Faulkner.
    Sep 13 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    I will say these Sept $3's have been horribly boring to hold. CB on them is $0.5925 (thanks E*Trade for finally giving me 25c price on option contracts and 50 free trades!), and here we are with them being worth $60 each... either they go to $72 this week or they go to $50. Guess we'll find out :P
    Sep 13 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    Yeah but unless you are long the stock ahead of time it's quite risky to enter into a buy / write on anything around a news event. You still have to get the direction correct, although a buy / write is certainly safer than a straight buy, that's for sure.

    SIRI premiums are horrible because there is so little volatility and really low action in options vs. the stock itself (likely due to share price being so low). I know at times I have held the majority of the open position on some of the strikes... and I'm certainly not that big a player.

    I am somewhat concerned about my 9/20 $3.00's for SIRI. 50 day chart, this week will trace that large drop from 3.45 to 3.35 closing price on the 50 day MA. Basically the price can drop 10 cents this week and touch that 50 day moving average and still maintain current trajectory (a very healthy pullback and a very strong buy from a technical standpoint if it does). I wouldn't be surprised if the share price goes to 3.50 for expiration to put those 40,000 open calls out of business by Friday. Thankfully my position is tiny... I only have 50 of those calls, but I still don't want to lose on them :) Saving grace, somewhat, is Meyer speaking on Tuesday. Though I expect he'll say the same things as usual they may grab more debt Monday and that would be a positive sign. Another saving grace is the various indexes are all where I would consider to be reasonable bounce points. They've either consolidated sideways / time or in conjunction with simple price pullback. SIRI has matched QQQ and done the time consolidation thing and closed right on trend support as of Friday's close.

    Blah blah blah :P who knows. Gimme 4 bucks, or better yet give me $4.18 in the next 4 months and I'm a happy camper. Anything more and I will be thrilled, though time is certainly making me less confident on a move higher than last year's highs. Those damn converts on Dec 1st....
    Sep 13 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    Well this does tie to the overall market as well. Option premiums all around have been low for a long time. Result of a long narrow channel grind. That'll change someday...

    Buy writes and spreads are almost always best done after a sharp drop ( like the end of last year, earlier this year, etc). People can kinda forget it here. I wouldn't even bother doing a 2016 buy write or spread right now. Wait for the next pullback, assuming you're happy with the company performance.
    Sep 12 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    Option premiums have been poor for a long time now. The ones I bought last year I think I paid a penny or two over value for two strikes under price. This year it was a bit more but they had longer to go.

    One of the reasons I haven't been too eager to go with a spread vs. straight long call.
    Sep 12 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    "Would it be wrong to state that $5 at any time between now and January is a price where you would consider Sirius over-valued?"

    $5 then would be beyond value yes so it would be beyond value now. Same as 4.18 last year. It's just where I believe the stock could reach. I think there is a much better chance of *around* $4.25 or my mid point, in January, vs. $5 sell point at this point (point point point...)
    Sep 11 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    Keep in mind that my target is where I see the stock potentially at at the high mark by that time, and a point where I would consider selling. It's a sell target.

    I have low targets for min values (for instance around 3 this year, give or take a few percent) where I would go in heavily, and did.

    Figure mid range is fair value, and I don't think CN and I differ too much in our opinion of where the company is fairly valued. He says right about here... I might be closer to 4 right now, and 4.25 in Jan with min / max 3.50 / 5.

    It's good to have lower bounds especially if using options in order to choose a strike with lower risk and (generally) less premium paid for time. Spreads, which I prefer (much like CN's covered calls, but with options both long and short) can be highly profitable if you can nail the top / bottom of a range. A good strategy for a spread is to pick your high and low, and in the case of SIRI shift down a strike (or two) and go long the lower, and short the higher. In my opinion the 2.50 / 4 spread offered very good return for low risk. Not so much anymore with only a few months to go and the 4's running too cheap.
    Sep 11 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    It will get moving when the last concerned guy has sold :)
    Sep 9 11:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Looks Like A Classic Value Play [View article]
    I'm not ignoring it for evaluation purposes. I am arguing that the interest expense is a benefit because of the "big picture" surrounding that interest expense, even if one can single it out as a cost and weigh it on "P/E"

    To be clear, I'm not attempting to defend a point, as there is no need to defend it.
    Sep 1 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Looks Like A Classic Value Play [View article]
    If I'm reminding you of that then you are not understanding what I am writing. Especially since you follow by comparing SIRI / the argument to bubble stocks in the late 90's which were losing money. I hesitate just before calling such a comparison "stupid" because you may in fact believe the comparison to be valid and I would prefer not to insult, directly.

    Ignoring interest expense is not bizarre as that money is borrowed vs. future cash flow in order to buy back and retire shares today. It's offset by the tax savings and prolonging of NOL usage. Appreciation of the asset purchased (shares) vs. depreciation of interest expense with tax deduction taken into account will result in a gain or loss. It's a multitude of moving parts and you'd do well if you wish to follow SIRI with any seriousness, to study and understand LMCA, its history, and how this all works together. I can see that it WOULD appear bizarre, though, if you are looking at these numbers in a vacuum and not understanding the longer term picture.

    SIRI, if it is doing things right, should post EPS of 0.01 or 0.02 per quarter for a long time to come, and P/E might actually go up over time. This would be healthy.

    The good thing, honestly, is that many people do not really understand how this all plays together, or what it means for the future. They go "uhhh... P/E!" and leave it at that. To those I suggest avoiding the stock, or even shorting it if they feel so inclined. Act on that conviction.
    Sep 1 03:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Looks Like A Classic Value Play [View article]
    "Doesn't a PE ratio matter anymore?"

    Did it ever? Not trying to be rude but P/E is used almost exclusively by those new to the market who don't know any better... or don't want to dig any deeper than the most superficial ratio available.

    In SIRI's case I explained some things here :

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 1 01:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Expect Significant Short Increase At Next Release [View article]
    Plenty to work through between $3.63 to $3.80 or so. Continued slow grind towards $4 *area* leading into Q3 call.

    Just watch the 50 day for support as a general rule. Might not hit it, though between now and Q3. Time to buy was at / under it right after the Q2 call when people were listening to the calls of "sell sell sell!" No meaningful pullback since.
    Aug 31 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Expect Significant Short Increase At Next Release [View article]
    Thx Bald guy!
    Aug 30 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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