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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    What has changed that would make you lighten up at $4 that did not have you lightening up last year? Or is this for a trade? Do you feel the company has less potential from $4 in 2015 than it had from similar pricing in 2013?
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    She apparently took all the market could afford :P it may not have had anything to do with being willing... you can't give more than you have...
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    You have a chance that they will be assigned, but I find it more likely that the SP heads into op ex between $3.50 and $4.

    What's needed is a surprise bit of good news... subs coming in way above guidance, some kind of positive upward revision. Any good news released by the company should be clear that there is some reason for the share price to be moved up.... LMCA selling back, new range required to pull a higher volume of shares, LMCA needs LMCA or LMCK up... move up the stock for another swap offer in an area that valuation looks attractive (even though it's still a "swap" people are stupid and will look at the cash value of the offer....)... etc.

    Good news doesn't HAVE to come out and guidance can be kept low... so any good news would be a deliberate move, in my opinion.

    We'll see. 2015 should still be a rapid pace buyback year with additional debt usage now that they have room to borrow a good amount more.
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    From the Pitbull song :

    "Jack and Jill went up the hill, each with a buck and a quarter. Jill came back with $2.50..."

    She must have had a good trading day.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1wQExcW

    Pitbull is a master. Who would have thought anyone could turn :

    http://bit.ly/1wQEz4A

    Into a marketable product. Good job sir.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    I wrote over on Spencer's site that I figured it would retest the $3.60's area back in October when it was around $3.1#.

    Expected one of two things... either a break of that area and a ramp up into the end of the year or a more healthy shallower pull back, probably the the mid $3.30's (there was a gap at 3.38 figured a buy around there would offer reasonable entry for those that missed the deeper pullback on ... Ebola? or whatever the reason was explained as back then...). It went down to 3.30 (unless you count the 3.2696 or whatever single out of range machine trade).

    It's just following the rest of the market... generally. $3.50 this week has a HUGE number of options outstanding on both the call and put side and that will cause gravity at $3.50. Options are exited by buying or shorting to cover the other end, and that means above $3.50 call holders will short, and below $3.50 put holders will buy to close the position. This has the effect of pushing the share price towards a close near $3.50 for Friday. After that it can move with a bit more freedom until Jan op ex... which doesn't have the density of options that Dec 20 does at 3.50.

    Also when I say "gravity" you need to be close to an object, in this case a large option position, for its gravity to come into effect. The Jan $2 puts which have a large number outstanding would not likely effect the current price because the price is unlikely to go under $2 by then... thus the holders of the options will not buy to cover and instead take the loss. The CALLS do have gravity. Largest position is Jan $4, and much of the positioning in Jan is in spreads with a $4 cap. Thus do not expect over $4 by Jan 17th ... it's really too far at the moment anyways without risking being hugely overbought. Then again I am of the opinion SIRI is well below value even here.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    Anyone who says differently is just trying not to hurt your feelings!
    Dec 12, 2014. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Sirius XM Changed Churn? Should You Care? [View article]
    "What is holding the stock price from going up?"

    Willingness of individuals to sell at these prices and patience of those running the buyback in order to do it properly. Read what you wrote... it's typical sentiment and day by day more and more sell out.

    At some point there will be no more individuals willing to sell. Could be tomorrow could be another year.
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Sirius XM Changed Churn? Should You Care? [View article]
    he has a point !
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    Also since, LMCA is down by 10% from the offer date. That is what you would have received 3 of and 1 of the LBRDA which is up about 8%. You'd still be down just about the same as SIRI is from the date of offer. During the last month there have been points where SIRI has outperformed relative to the offer had it gone through (assuming things traded the exact same which obviously they have not... but people are making similar assumptions so why the hell not right? ;) )
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    Am I missing something regarding performance of LBRDA and LMCA since the spin? LBRDA has net +$4 or so and the LMCA share portion is net out -$6 for a decline of $2 per or approx 1.5%

    SIRI since is exactly flat. So LMCA / LBRDA combo since spin has underperformed SIRI by 1.5%. Had SIRI holders taken the "offer" they would have less today.

    "I think Sirius investors lost a lot in turning that away. Broadband has been performing pretty good post-spinout. We could have been in on that in the ground floor."

    I am really not understanding this. You can buy it for less today than the spin valuation? Sell SIRI and buy 3 LMCA for each LBRDA and get 1.5% more and be in after the ground floor has been laid here? Probably be pretty easy tomorrow to sell / buy ?
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    Point here is that you are just a little guy... at any point nearly all retail investors in SIRI can sell their entire stake without moving the bid / ask more than 1 penny. Nobody missed out on the broadband spin... they could simply sell SIRI and buy LMCA and get the broadband spin. Nobody needs an equity swap to do this...
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    Umm... you could have sold SIRI and bought LMCA?
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Settles Suit With Attorneys General; What Are The Implications? [View article]
    "Obviously, from a current financial perspective, rejecting the offer was a poor decision."

    Was it? I see this often stated. What would $100 worth of SIRI be worth today if the equity swap had gone through and that $100 owned LMCA or LMCK or whatever they decided to use?

    Or is this statement based on simple share price equivalent of the offer at the time related to share price equivalent today?

    ANYONE could have sold their shares to market for the cash value of the offer. It has been above and below the cash value of the offer as well, since the offer was made.

    Was the deal "bad" when the price was above the offer? Better when the share price was near $3? What about when it deviated from LMCA along the way several times, where LMCA dropped more than SIRI? Would have been a horrible idea, in hindsight, to take an equity swap then.

    Anyways... I don't understand the statement that rejecting the offer was a poor decision. I actually respect Maffei quite a bit but when he said similar nonsense some time ago I couldn't help but wonder if he was 1) stupid or 2) pretending to be stupid.

    But that's ok :) Retail, I think, generally looks at this as a cash buyout offer (where the statement would make more sense) and may very well be happy to sell out as it approaches it. Siri can buy those shares.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing America's 3 Largest Radio Broadcasting Companies [View article]
    I am astonished there is only one comment here after about 24 hours...

    Perhaps the "space" has little to no interest. While the SIRI only articles have been getting less and less attention (as has P... other than the defensive posters riding the stock down), it's atypical to see an article that includes either go with only a single post on it.

    I actually don't disagree with you that CMLS looks attractive here (though this is simply from a chart perspective. For a trade buying around here and selling the 200 day MA looks good. The explosive 300% rise last year on breaking the 8 year downtrend went right to resistance and got rejected pretty hard.

    I just wonder how good of an "investment" it is in what is somewhat of a dying industry. While radio is still "big" it may be eventually whittled down as streaming becomes more popular. Granted this is a multi year... perhaps a decade or more slow burn type of thing, but it will get there. Do you buy CMLS for a multi year hold, or even a 12 month hold? Not so sure I would do that.

    One could argue that P looks attractive, then, considering the whole streaming gets more popular idea... but that is dependent on fleshing out of coast to coast data and no matter how much people WANT that it is not going to happen anytime soon. Data will remain cost prohibitive for several years and longer than that for seamless reception while driving in most areas. I lose data at several points between Manchester NH and Boston, MA down route 93, and this is a heavily populated run. I also had no data the other day in Lexington, Concord, Bedford, Carlisle (various points)... It's no good if you only get your service on the highway, but the 15 minutes getting to the highway is cutting in and out. (It's maddening, really).

    Perhaps I am biased but from a business standpoint SIRI is growing and makes money and is shrinking the share count and currently has the best technology. P can grow but can't monetize (and growth has pretty much hit a brick wall with P anyways) and terrestrial radio is turning to more and more commercials to fill lower income rates per ad... which should push more and more listeners away.

    For a trade I'd go long CMLS... investment SIRI... and for a short... I still think P suffers considerably over time here... especially as royalties tick up, and up, and up, from their sweetheart deal they have enjoyed (but bled money on... regardless) over the years.
    Dec 9, 2014. 03:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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