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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • John Malone Wants You, To Recapitalize Him [View article]
    I do understand in some ways where you are coming from, though. There is the possibility that LMCA uses this to drive up both the price of the parent and the price of the tracker (in this case SIRI), allows SIRI to continue to buyback and thus increase LMCA (tracker) ownership percentage in SIRI and then retire it / fold it back into LMCA at a premium since it would be perceived that the whole / control is worth more than the part.

    IE let the market misprice the tracker relative to the whole and have the part pay up a premium to the whole to be folded back in (in this case for an eventual spin).

    So in part I can understand your concern surrounding this if this is why, and anyone investing in any of these portions should understand the possibilities and understand what is the appropriate relative valuations between each.

    Kinda like owning SIRI vs. owning LMCA but with one additional level of confusion.

    It's not for everyone, but it isn't some blanket "bad" thing.

    I'd rather own SIRI anyways, but I do think there is value to be realized in the split and unlock.
    Nov 14, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Malone Wants You, To Recapitalize Him [View article]
    " I don't like this idea of "tracking stocks," where you pretend to own something but, in fact, don't own anything."

    But you do own something. You own a portion of the ownership of a portion.

    When you have a company like LMCA which really isn't a "company" but more like a... well company I guess which holds large stakes in other companies, sometimes the sum of the parts gets erroneously discounted by the market.

    This can happen for a multitude of reasons such as those wanting X but not wanting / seeing value in Y.

    Thus if I want SIRI I just buy into SIRI and don't care to own LMCA because I see little to no value in its stake in other companies, or I don't understand their value, or I don't want exposure to them, etc etc.

    So the break into tracking stocks allows LMCA to split its holdings apart from one another for trading purposes.

    You do OWN something. You now own X% of the original LMCA's % ownership of Y instead of X% of LMCA's ownership of A, B, C, D, E....

    These are not "games." When you do not understand something it is foolish to blow it off as some "game."

    Take time to educate yourself (and I am not trying to be insulting here, I do not know another way to say this) before you generate some opinion.

    Especially before you just throw out an article like this which you can't really back up with knowledge or facts... just not liking something because you do not understand it is not good "support" for your thesis.
    Nov 14, 2015. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Malone Wants You, To Recapitalize Him [View article]
    "They are being killed by podcasting and Internet streaming. My personal view"

    What in the world are you talking about? Do you do any research before generating an "opinion" or do you just fire one out there off the cuff?
    Nov 13, 2015. 03:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Malone Wants You, To Recapitalize Him [View article]
    Kinda crazy talk. If "he" has most of the equity and you expect the move to benefit "him" then it is reasonable to assume anyone holding the equity will benefit in kind with "him."

    Sooo... how is that a bad thing for those who hold with him?
    Nov 13, 2015. 11:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Malone Wants You, To Recapitalize Him [View article]
    Sounds like the author just doesn't like John Malone...

    Sounds like a bunch of biased opinion to me, with really nothing in the article to back up the assumptions.

    Perhaps the author would like to go with a long term short in Liberty?
    Nov 13, 2015. 10:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OK, I'll Say It: Sirius XM Had A Great Quarter [View article]
    It shouldn't affect SIRI as it really has nothing to do with SIRI at the moment.
    Nov 12, 2015. 10:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    "Now Faulkner and CN will say see Muscle is back"

    Told you he'd be back, lol.
    Oct 30, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    There you go. But I think those selling here are selling themselves short and giving up on what should be a good 25% move from $4 over the coming months.

    SIRI just broke a bunch of levels of resistance. Not 4.18 yet but that one is simply an intra day hit. The more important 4.12 was trumped today on the closing chart closing at 4.13.

    That's not to say there won't be trading opportunities for people and that's not to say $4 will not be revisited but things have generally changed now from sell or short $4 to long or cover $4.

    Strength doesn't always show in volume. There's a closing price break. A long term RSI break. The 20 day MA closed today higher than it has in like 9 years. Same for the 50 day MA.

    Holding for so darn long then ejecting might turn out to be good in the very near term but like I said, good gains should be around the corner.
    Oct 29, 2015. 09:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    Regardless of whether or not you agree with his opinions CN is the last remaining writer with good in depth knowledge of the company.

    Be nice.
    Oct 28, 2015. 12:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    That stuff (GME) isn't aimed at passengers. It's just aimed at people. Don't care if it's the dash that provides it.

    CVS has nothing to do with games.

    "They must."

    Oct 28, 2015. 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    I don't read much of that stuff no. Probably the narcissist in me. I am very dismissive of stuff I read as it is often loaded with opinion (typically stated as if it is fact).

    I don't understand how you want SIRI to provide "games"? Through the internet? What games? How much are they going to spend on these things? Will the kids play them or will the kids play whatever today's angry birds or candy crush or farmville is? Seriously... if it's through the net the kids pick from "everything" and honestly I DO NOT want SIRI to spend cash trying to develop games. I'd be out of the stock very quickly. I realize this is just one of your ideas and that's fine but I just don't see the need for SIRI to expand and cater to an active user vs. the passive listening driver.

    And no that's not narrow minded. Period. The passengers all have a HUGE amount of competition for their eyes and ears since they are able to focus on the content and not just "listen" to the content. They can read or play games or whatever else you can do with a phone, tablet, or laptop / notebook. You want SIRI to try to chase the passenger who doesn't pay the bill or make the decision to subscribe? That's foolish. Period.

    But it's all opinion. Not fact. Talking about what SIRI should or should not do isn't really what I care to spend my time on because my opinions of how the company should be run do not matter in the least beyond whether or not I wish to continue to remain an investor. I don't work for the company and have no capacity to make change.

    I think SIRI would do well to not chase passengers or cater to them. It would be expensive and there is far too much competition. It's why I don't think SIRI cares much about chasing subs outside of the car itself. There's a guy on here who thinks SIRI is losing out by not producing table top radios. He's mentioned it hundreds of times. They made one and stopped, for good reason. It wasn't worth it to do so.
    Oct 27, 2015. 10:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    No it doesn't raise the price. Buybacks reduce cash and / or add debt. It's zero sum. The benefit is realized over time if the company outperforms the cost of the buyback.
    Oct 27, 2015. 10:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pandora Fell 35% On Friday And Might Fall Even More [View article]
    Or driving it off a bridge.
    Oct 27, 2015. 05:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    Yeah sorry much of that was typed in haste.

    SIRI doesn't have the same technical (psychological) issues as the other tickers listed. People are still "as soon as it gets over $4 I am selling" mode with SIRI for one absurd reason after the other... and I say absurd referring to those who have not sold the multiple chances that they have had over the last 2 years and instead waited for the company to catch up to the share price to unload... Thanks for holding, I guess... ? :P

    Anyways those people all have to be churned through. SIRI did NOT surprise so there should not be a rapid rise given the environment. It's pretty much doing what it should though I'll be honest I expected this a quarter ago after Q2 not at Q3 but eh... I'll take it.

    There really isn't enough volume in SIRI, even with the increased volume, to pierce what resistance is at $4 considering option $4 option calls and expected trading against them assuming most are hedges vs. short. It's a slow bore if anything.

    I know you expected the $4 calls to be exercised and you should get it near or on op-ex to lighten that position.

    $4.50 still presents long opportunity for you assuming you wish to hold and write $5's against it for Jan '17. Looking at about 25 cents premium on them if the price is $4.50, or if you want to write $4.50's against you could probably get $.40 in that case when it comes time to make a decision in January.

    Again that assumes the SP is $4.50 or around there at the time. I find the most likely scenario for the SP to be around $4.25 at Jan op ex. though in which case I wouldn't write any calls at that time... wait for the Q4 call then decide. If the stock moves from $4.25 then there's very little in the way right up to $5 per share, a psychological level offering probably a good early year write for a covered call at the $5 strike.

    Cash flow / sub stuff should come 2017.

    I don't think SIRI will hit $5.50 in 3 months, no. That's a bet I'd take the other side of in a heartbeat. There are no upcoming reasons for it to go there and there is not enough time from a technical standpoint. I simply see that as the upper limit of where the price could have possibly gone within reason but it's too late now. SIRI would have had to move in Q2 and even then it would have been a stretch.

    I'm long Jan 2016 $2.50 $3 and $3.50 (highest concentration at the moment is in the $3 strike, then $3.50 then a small number of $2.50's). Also long 100 each of Jan 2017 $3 and $3.50 which were my last purchases. Any from here on go to 2017 as 2016 is too soon, and I may roll the positions up and out from 2016 to 2017 ($3, $3.50, $4).

    I also have a speculative buy at November 20th $4 strike for 8 cents that I grabbed on Friday. 500 contracts we'll see how it plays out. Yes this goes against my "never buy calls out of the money" thing but at such small premium and given my expectations after the call I figured that value presented a good 50% upside at least.

    I am not sure yet if I wish to resume shorting vs. the long calls or simply hold them to expiration. It's a very tricky area and small news bits (for instance howard stern re-upping) could ignite new interest in the stock at a sensitive level and send it roaring because of traders jumping in on a technical break. I think being greedy here is warranted.
    Oct 27, 2015. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Content With Sirius Despite Strong Results [View article]
    I disagree. The stock has shown strength since earnings though not breakout strength, which is fine... there are still plenty willing to sell at or near $4 as has been the case for a long time now. Granted... back in 2013 this was at the high area of valuation for SIRI and here today it is near the bottom.

    SIRI has very little street interest. That's fine. The longer the company is able to buy below $4.25 the better, and the lower the average purchase of the entire buyback the better, eventually.

    Long term issue. It's not some short term flip in and out (though that can be successfully done, too).

    I will say that the short $4 play is very likely coming to an end if it hasn't closed already. The overhang of 100,000 $4 calls for January and another massive lot for December and November are still there.... your short calls against your holdings are very likely being used as insurance for some trader flipping your shares around and trying to make money that way.

    It is very very unlikely that we see a large movement of those $4 calls beyond January. $4.50 or even $5 may become the strike that is used.

    Watching options can be very important in understanding how a stock may move and how many shares must be absorbed BEFORE the stock can move. If it's going to break out you'd want to see a slow burn on above average volume with little pullback opportunity to cover any short. The high volume should come above $4.12 to $4.18 +/- 5 cents and may very well come 2 to 4 weeks after an event sets buying in motion because there are so many for whom sell or short $4 has worked for for years now.

    Right now I'd say $4 itself is a cover area.

    Keep an eye on LMCA / K as well. Each has returned to relative parity with SIRI and may in fact break out first, though each has to move another 10% or so.

    I could get highly detailed with all this but I do better the more I detach from conversations on SIRI unfortunately.

    Your $4 calls will get exercised, I would think, but I doubt your $4.50's will be taken for more than $4.50 + premium you pulled.

    Still see upper end of SIRI valuation approaching $5.50 for Jan 2016, low valuation should be around $4.25 (thus SIRI is scraping that bottom area now and has been for quite some time.)

    Anyways I'm blabbing on here but the whole mess may be stuck between $4 and $4.25, roughly, until January op ex. Maybe. Where the stock is today and how it has performed in spite of certain other issues (technical for some, relative for others such as the LMCA / SIRI relationship and open option positions) show that the call was well received by most (for those who even bothered to pay attention... the market still has SIRI apathy, which is fine by me!)
    Oct 27, 2015. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment