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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    Thought that was Spaceballs :P
    Dec 25, 2014. 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    Too much :P lol

    Yeah premiums were pretty crazy EOY last year. Even the $3.50's are down considerably.

    Premiums on the $2.50s are a few pennies here. Almost makes sense for me to roll forward now and take a hit of a few cents on the larger lot. Even the $3's look attractive long side for 1 year of time.

    It's what happens when the stock goes a whole year and consolidates, I guess.
    Dec 25, 2014. 03:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    Take analyst targets as points where they would change opinion, not as "this is where the stock is definitely going to go." I think people make that mistake far too often... assuming an analyst's target is where they think the stock will be for sure in 12 months exactly...

    I think one can be less careful with 2015 than with 2014.

    I still would not suggest ATM or OTM options except with fun money. Heck even my $3's are a very small position and those were ITM / ATM at purchase.

    AAPL was attractive at $400. I wouldn't be a buyer of AAPL here from an investment standpoint. Trade, sure.

    I can't fathom why you can't do spreads. They are the same class as a covered call. If you can go long a call then there is no reason they should keep you from writing a strike higher up against it. It's actually more conservative with lower risk... If they won't let you do an ITM spread but will let you do a straight OTM call buy then I'd find another platform.

    I wouldn't expect them to let you do a cash covered put write if they won't let you enter a spread.

    Only dip I see from here is to fill the little gap a few pennies below on an intra day basis. Got my buy set $3.42... figure it comes before the end of the year.
    Dec 25, 2014. 12:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    Jan 2015 was $5 area (more specifically $4.85) sell target. Same as $4.25 for Jan 2014. It's the target at which I would change my position and sell out from hold and add under the 50 day MA.

    SIRI has hit my "sell" point, roughly, twice in the last 5 years. $2.40 in 2011 and $4.18 in 2013. Anyone and everyone should have easily been able to sell at $4.17 in Oct of 2014 if they chose, especially considering $4.25 for Jan 2014 was an entire quarter away.

    Likewise SIRI has hit my strong buy areas 7X (other than the obvious 2/2009) 12/2009, 8/2010, 10/2011, 2-7/2012 4,10,12/2014.

    I'm not sure anyone is interested in my targets :) Not many sold in 2013 near $4.18. Most were happy to sell out in 2014 for far less. (and still more are "just waiting for it to hit $3.60 again so I can sell out...") Next time it gets to where I would consider selling I would expect the same :)
    Dec 25, 2014. 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    Hey, Merry Christmas.... too much egg nog I see...! :P

    Selling Jan '16 $4's might be a good idea on dips for puts. Hold the cash or do a buy / write on SIRI selling the $3.50 calls against.

    SIRI over $3.50 you get your long shares called away and buy SIRI for $4. Not a problem because you net about $1 per on the call write and put write.

    SIRI under $3.50 down to $2.50 you can sell the shares and end up buying SIRI for $4... probably worst case scenario here. You end up exact same position at $2.50 as someone who simply bought long at $3.50 and held.

    Below $2.50 hurts. If you're concerned about that buy some $2.50 puts for a nickle with the proceeds.

    SIRI over $4 you get your shares called off for the $3.50 you paid, and you keep the $1 per share and run with about 30%, and you don't get put any stock so you're all in cash at the end.

    This is just top of my head stuff ... options can be a bit confusing and while I haven't had a lot of egg nog I have eaten my fill of lobster and shrimp this evening and may be rambling a bit ;) Best RVR for 2015 looks to me to be a $3 / $4 call spread from current pricing. Double at $4, loss under $3.50 full loss at $3. Such a tight position is not for the faint of heart, though. $2.50 / $4 is probably a better bet for most though I am not looking for under $3 in 2015... if it grinds around I think it does $3.60 to $4.20 area (and find that to be the most likely). I certainly do not see it getting to my sell area around $5.50.

    If you buy at the money or out of the money options again I am not talking to you anymore :P ATM OR OTM ARE SELL ONLY IF YOU INTEND TO HOLD THE POSITION FOR A LONG TIME .... they are BUY only for a VERY short term trade. Never pay for time and sit on it. Ever.
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    "I know he really didn't mean it."

    I meant it, although for those like myself I did not, and it was tongue in cheek :) I wouldn't advocate any long term holder sell unless the share price were to approach any of my targets (thus $2.40+ in 2011 or $4+ in 2013 were hit).

    Plain and simple the more who sell the more shares SIRI can buy back and the cheaper SIRI gets them, thus my forced reinvestment is buying back lower. I would not be as comfortable if SIRI had dragged along, say, $4 to $4.60 this year instead of $3 to $3.60. SIRI paying 33% more for shares and thus getting 25% fewer shares for the same money would not be as beneficial down the road and would border on overpaying, in my opinion.

    I don't have a choice where SIRI buys back. I want to make sure SIRI is buying back where I would be comfortable adding to position, and they have done so on average. All's good with me :) And please, keep that selling coming (though cool it for a few weeks here... eh? ;) )
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    Likewise when are you going to explain your call years ago to short SIRI under $1.87? :) Something about you were a convertible bond holder and your buddies that also held them were going to bring it under that? Or all that talk about channel stuffing and the auto market being about to implode? Or something about Greece and the euro zone going to start World War 3 and that that would kill off SIRI? Or something about the only way anyone is buying cars is with high risk junk loans that were about to be closed off?

    Heck, anyone sitting short waiting for those bond holders to tank the stock out is probably out of luck now that the bonds have run their course. What did you do with the tens or hundreds of millions or whatever you claimed to own?

    What happened to being a Duke University student with the computer hacker friend?

    What happened to any of the stories? =/

    Feel free to enlighten us :) And Merry Christmas!
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    A druid? When's the last time you burned a wicker man? =/
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    If you expect a better year for SIRI and not so much for the rest of the portfolio ... I am curious why you seek to lighten up on SIRI ? Are you lightening "less" than from the rest of the portfolio?

    Don't get me wrong... like I said I want people to sell their shares :) I'm just trying to understand the thought process... it's the psychology of the market I am more interested in than anything.
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Christmas List For Sirius XM [View article]
    GV is thinking like Liberty, and that's the only thing that makes sense. It's about them, not anyone else.

    LMCA is not going to pay a dividend, no matter how many wish it or want it. There are a plethora of stocks available out there which pay a dividend and are appropriate for those who wish to invest in a company which does so.

    Investing in SIRI (investing, that is, buying into the "Story" or whatever you want to call it) should come with the expectation that you are in this for the ride with LMCA, and that your expectations should align with what is best for LMCA.

    That means no dividend. None. Period. End of story. You are not getting it. And it is a huge waste of time to think about one, how much you want one, whether or not it is "better" for the company to pay one, etc. It's also a huge waste of time to continually post about how you really want one, how you know one isn't coming but you still really want one, etc.

    SIRI could drag for another entire year. Long term? Beneficial to do so. Short term? Could be painful, especially for those who dream of some pitiful 5 cent dividend or who expect SIRI to pump its own stock.

    You do not talk up what you are in the market for.

    I don't mean to sound "mean" when I post this stuff but I have been saying these things for a long time... yet for some reason people still post about how they should have gotten a dividend or how they think dividends are better or whatever... It's like buying chocolate ice cream when you HAD THE CHOICE ORIGINALLY to buy vanilla and then complaining that it doesn't taste like vanilla.

    Buy a dividend stock...
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    Just limit sell the bid. Market orders are scary (though with SIRI not so much). E*Trade often gets me fractionals above / below on limit bid sales and limit ask buys.

    Remember "the broker" is just a computer.
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    Ohhh... was thinking of my Facebook profile pic that I switched to an end of season Christmas Tree fire back in early December last year...
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    It would have to pass $3.50 to guarantee the sale. Your $3.50 is put up for sale against all others at $3.50. You have to sell the bid to guarantee it sells.
    Dec 22, 2014. 06:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    Did I make my profile pic here the burning tree last year? =/ Can't remember... lol
    Dec 22, 2014. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Santa Claus Rally Needed To Propel Stock Gain For The Year [View article]
    If you hold 5% in a mirror it is 2%

    Well it's %2 but kinda sorta works...
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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