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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Ray I would suggest if you are not interested in the short term day to day stuff that you stop looking at and commenting on the short term day to day stuff...
    Oct 2 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alvin And The Chipmunks Take A Bite Out Of Sirius XM [View article]
    FUN looks rough to me... That's a good recent bounce but it has a lot to prove from a technical perspective. I don't know anything about the company just looking at the chart. Hard overhead resistance at 49 or so and some resistance also just above 48. Weekly chart 20 about to cross under 50. Supported at 100 MA on weekly. 50 Weekly is about to turn down as well. 100 day MA just crossed under the 200. Everything else firmly down (and the 200 is now turned down as well).

    IMO rough week ahead. I don't expect oil prices to go much lower and if the stock is heavily fuel dependent then I don't see it being boosted by lower fuel pricing. Dollar is about as strong as I think it is going to get in the short term. I'm new to all that stuff though. If I was to put some money on one side or the other I would put it on the bearish side for FUN.

    That stock had a very nice run from OCT '11 until JUL '14 though. I don't know how long you have been in it but even with the turn down from JUL I certainly would have no complaints if I owned it :)
    Sep 28 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alvin And The Chipmunks Take A Bite Out Of Sirius XM [View article]
    "Was it an AAPL article?"

    Yes. A good one too, I would say. For a guy that couldn't care less about Apple / the company / the business. It was more of a technical issue and a general feeling that Apple was worth more than the point I felt it would reach before it would turn around and go higher.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Now had I followed my own advice (as usual) I'd have made a killing...

    The next two highest at about $350 are :

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    and

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    SIRI articles always did best right after a bounce at the lowest points.

    Regarding the Turtles thing... the stock began to decline with the market before the news. While people may have sold because of this news, the major contributor I would argue is the almost mirror image pullback in .. well.. almost everything else. Certainly the Turtles aren't pulling the entire market's strings. But looking at SIRI in a vacuum it may look that way.

    I wrote this elsewhere on 9/22 :

    "LMCA investors get a 100/200 cross tomorrow or within next few days. SIRI should follow, and SIRI could comfortably touch the 200 and still be healthy (3.44 or so). Similar move like tracing the 100 just before it turned up... 19 cent drop. 200 turns up in a few days. 19 cent drop from 3.65 is 3.46... close enough. Might throw a big chunk of cash at it if it goes there and I'm watching at the time."

    Basically I did not see the 50 as defending the price on this move. Unfortunately I was not watching (see the whole busy at work thing above) but I did have a limit order on some calls and added to the 200 I bought at 17 cents for 10/18 and brought my CB down to 12 cents. One of the good things about projecting correctly in advance is a limit order while you are away can be effective. Now I'm in it for more than I wanted to be but I'm comfortable with that. (I think... ;) ) It's small money anyways either way.

    We'll see if the dollar lets out some of its strength next week. Fill your tanks over the weekend... buy your winter oil, etc. Just my opinion :)
    Sep 27 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alvin And The Chipmunks Take A Bite Out Of Sirius XM [View article]
    And turtles around the world stuck their heads outta their shells for that one.
    Sep 26 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alvin And The Chipmunks Take A Bite Out Of Sirius XM [View article]
    Often I see such comments by people who talk about how they bought at X and sold a few cents above and made a profit (never see anyone say they took a loss... lol). If they want to see what "they" look like, I suggest those people find the nearest mirror and gaze longingly into their own reflection (if they have one... stock vampires...!)
    Sep 26 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alvin And The Chipmunks Take A Bite Out Of Sirius XM [View article]
    My highest paid is about $400, it's based on a penny a view at 40,000 views. They have flat payments for "small cap" stuff ... $500? I think... $2500 for some? Can't remember... not something I cared about or would bother with as it'd probably take a couple days of research to write one of those and, well... there goes the value of the $500 to $2500.

    Right now they flat pay $35 plus views, but are no longer on the yahoo feed, which essentially cut views in half. So while the $35 flat is good for those who wrote about stuff that isn't all that heavily followed or popular, it was another cut to those who wrote often.

    Honestly, not much to write about anyways. I can provide my opinion of "who cares" on this Turtles thing I guess but why bother taking the time to type it all out :) I don't think it's a big deal. Don't think it's making SIRI interesting, or that people should stay tuned or whatever. It'll be in court for years...
    Sep 26 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alvin And The Chipmunks Take A Bite Out Of Sirius XM [View article]
    It's a few things that keep me from writing.

    One is change in compensation. It's worth less and honestly today my time is worth much more than in 2012 so less for more doesn't compute really. When articles were worth 100 to 150 per it was "ok" right before they removed pay for mobile clicks and started to push hard to get everyone to use mobile ... but now it's like 50 ? or so an article, maybe 75. Not worth an hour to write one let alone hours to play around in comments.

    Busier at work. Considerably. Whoever says the economy is not improving is not working with the rich, cuz they are spending hand over fist... especially building and remodeling homes, and that's good for me.

    I am less tolerant / increasingly frustrated with questions and comments about every penny that SIRI moves. "They" are keeping the price down (who is "they?"), manipulation comments, doom and gloom stuff, whining, etc. People can't believe that SIRI is 3.51 today. But it was 3.58 last week... how can this be? What is going on? What do they know? The Turtles are going to be a death knell for the company ... is it time to sell out? Is this the final blow? See the pay issues above... need 500 to 1000 an article to deal with this kinda stuff.

    So I kinda just write when interested and have some time to kill. Will still comment and such here and there... and will answer questions, but be forewarned if you are all worried, sick over the stock, talking ghosts and goblins, my advice will be to sell... every time, regardless of what I am doing. Better to suck up weak returns on safe fixed income, in my opinion, than shave years off one's life pining away over the day to day moves in the market :P

    Let the strength of the dollar get let out a bit. It just had a significant gain the last couple months. You can see it most quickly in oil prices (yay cheap gas). There are a lot of things that work together here... best for some to learn about them or hire someone to do it for them that has decades of experience (which I do not).
    Sep 26 09:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Expect Significant Short Increase At Next Release [View article]
    Or the right way, depending on your expectations. I was looking for 3.44 on the trace this week. 3.45 close enough.

    I've just gone to suggesting anyone with concerns or panic on pullbacks sell out. So when I get the emails and messages it's easier to suggest selling and attempting to play around with something else. Far easier than suggesting someone hold and stop looking at it every day... cuz the guy sending me a message of worry is sending me that message of worry because they can't help but look at it every day. :)

    I wouldn't expect the market to go up while the dollar index has risen so quickly. Each has moved against the other in kind, which is about right. Sure does cheapen the oil , though. Not bad for gas prices, and good for companies like ours which maintain a fleet and are wholly domestic. :) Life is good :)
    Sep 26 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    What do you mean "what it means?" I think you would do much better to worry about investing and following the company and your expectations of fair value than worrying about every single day's price activity and whether or not some mysterious men are pulling little strings and guiding the share price. Such activity exists in some form in every stock.

    If you feel the share price does not represent the true value of the company I would suggest buying more. If you feel the stock market is full of manipulation I would suggest using other means to grow your wealth.
    Sep 23 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    Discussions about manipulation conspiracies are generally unproductive.
    Sep 23 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Why do you feel Liberty owning majority has placed the damper? Share price went to 2.40 in 2011 and then experienced trouble, yet LMCA did not own. It didn't exceed again until late 2012.

    There's a relative value for the stock that is ignored by most. I am constantly amazed by comments suggesting SIRI is some extraordinary stock that deserves to be at $X per share. There's no value above a certain number and there is very good value to be had below a certain number... in my opinion those being $5 EOY (actually $4.85 or around there) and $3.50 (actually right about $3.63, where we float now). Anything between is fair game. Last year it was around $4.25 and $3.

    Stocks move relative to buying and selling activity and that is governed, in large part, by sentiment and trend. Right now SIRI is consolidating after a significant move... regardless of where anyone who is bullish THINKS the stock SHOULD be (because a current holder's opinion DOES NOT MATTER as they are not an active market participant unless they are selling)... the price is at it is because there are enough sellers to satisfy the number of and pace of the buyers.

    I could go into a lot of technical details why there is nothing unhealthy about the share price or the share price movement here, but I am not so sure how helpful that would be. Others may see differently and "technicals" I have found, are often a matter of opinion and individuals often cater them to their own bias (at times, myself included).

    Some points to look at. The peak of the 200 day before the downturn was $3.65. The 100 day will cross over the 200 day in the next 2 weeks (bullish). The 50 day slope up is 0.5 cents a day... VERY VERY typical of SIRI in a bullish trend. Bollinger bands are very tight / about as tight as they get. It's a recipe for a strong move up, in my opinion, and shorter term I would say this is good for the next 2 weeks. In the meantime it would be of no concern (and even possibly a good thing) for the price to trace down to and touch the 50 day briefly. That may be needed to bring the traders back in, step up the volume, and break $3.65

    $5 falls within my "healthy share price" range within the next 730 days, yes. It's top end valuation for the next 150 or so. This can change depending on how the company executes over time, but it's doing fine as of today.

    12-24 months? Fed interest rates? Overall market? Dunno. Sounds like you're focusing on a lot of short to mid term stuff and not focusing enough on SIRI and your opinion of the company itself, unless you're trying to scalp a pullback and exit / re-enter at a lower price. Best of luck if you try :)
    Sep 20 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    It will take people buying and holding. It will take people not being frustrated by share price in light of their opinion of the company. It will take investing, instead of trading. It will take patience, instead of looking elsewhere and saying damn... that BABA IPO... I gotta get in on that...

    If you believe there is massive shorting (not sure I understand this idea since short interest has been declining? where are you coming up with this?) or that the stock is "setting up ... for another sell off" then it may be best to sell and exit? It is very likely that others feel the same and are happy to sell and you will find good company.

    I'm not trying to be difficult here but I see the same comments over and over, and the same complaints... on articles, in my inbox, etc. I just tell people to sell. It's way easier because then I see less complaints, and receive less worried messages :) You keep posting this same message every few weeks on little pull backs... worried, program selling, shorting blah blah blah blah blah blah. Sell. Please :) Stop the pain you are putting yourself through watching every tiny little movement this stock makes and trying to hyper analyze every penny and trying to guess where it will be tomorrow and the next day etc. You will be doing yourself (and others) a favor! :)
    Sep 19 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    The heck ya want me to write about? :P I can't force one... and it's pretty boring out there :)
    Sep 17 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    You can't go by options for price prediction. It's based on current volatility and price... really doesn't have anything to do with expectations of future news or company moves. They will price higher around volatile events such as earnings but other than that it's a pretty standard formula.
    Sep 15 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Strong New Car Sales Rate A Long-Term Positive Or Short-Term Blip For Sirius XM? [View article]
    I figure they have been using it.
    Sep 14 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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