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Stephen Faulkner

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  • Is It The Right Time To Buy Sirius XM? [View article]
    Unfortunately I can't press your "like" button for how many times I would have liked to press the "dislike" button on those spewing trader talk saying longs haven't made any money in the past few years, it was a mistake to be long, easy to make money elsewhere, blah blah blah :P
    Apr 18 05:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It The Right Time To Buy Sirius XM? [View article]
    "How about Siri do something right by their stockholders and start the buyback? I think after all the talk it's the "right time" to do that!"

    The right thing to do by their stockholders is to conduct the buyback in the best fashion for longer term return of capital. The wrong thing to do is run the buyback so people can flip in and out and try to play the pops and dips short term at the expense of the company running its own stock.

    I understand that you want them to start the buyback so you can go green and flip out of your recent purchase and chase something else, but that's not best for the company now is it?
    Apr 18 05:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It The Right Time To Buy Sirius XM? [View article]
    Well good thing you don't have to think about it Pete cuz you sold out back in 2012 for $2 or so, right? Spamming articles with comments of "dump it" "dump it before it goes to $1.50" "dump it before Obama gets your money"...

    If you had the money you'd buy AAPL hand over fist back when it was $700 a share too, right? I mean you did say that.

    "Liberty will kill itself and Sirius XM in less than a year" You said in 2012.

    The funny thing is if you look at your post history you make these comments AT THE BOTTOMS. You are the poster child for fear. You really want that AAPL at $700 a share and you HATE that SIRI at $1.80. You're always "sick" over stuff.

    The market needs people like you, because the guy that buys your SIRI from you and then sells it back to you higher has to make his money, and the guy who shorts you AAPL and buys it back from you lower has to make his money too.

    Not everyone has gotten sick here, and those who don't look at the day to day and run around like a worried little puppy aren't foolish or stupid or anything... they're likely doing quite well (despite some purchases, for a time being, being under water a bit). I can say this because I'm one of those people.

    Stay sick. But don't try to infect everyone else by spewing nonsense. It's a free country and you can do what you want, I guess, but you're not doing yourself (or anyone else) any favors.
    Apr 18 05:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It The Right Time To Buy Sirius XM? [View article]
    "A lot of us have seen siri rise from the dead, and always expected someday to see a major breakout."

    Anyone looking for a "major breakout" with SIRI is going to be disappointed. It might make good moves in short times (especially from oversold levels, 1.27, 1.80, etc) but a major breakout? What the heck would be the catalyst for such a thing? Please explain why you felt you would get a "major breakout" in SIRI.

    "I'd say over the last 2 years anyone holding this stock could have done much better elsewhere, but because too many of us tenaciously hold on and focus on this holding we are becoming extremely myopic. And that is not a good. x"

    45% return holding for 2 years. You're joking right? Anyone could have done much better elsewhere? Seriously. ARE YOU JOKING? You mention SCHM but that is up 41%.

    You come to the boards and run around suggesting people flit in and out with you. A little here, a little there... sell this buy that etc. All fine, but don't make stuff up. If you held SIRI for 2 years you have outperformed the market, even if you can cherry pick other time frames that it has not.

    "Are you also investing elsewhere? I believe an investment of over $60,000 would produce just as well or better and safer. Siri has gone up 5%ish over the last year while a no brain-er (and historically safe) ETF like SCHM is up 25%ish"

    Yeahhhh good idea. Sell what you feel is undervalued and buy SCHM. Sounds like jojopuppyfish is making the right move if he feels SIRI is undervalued.

    Have you sold your SIRI you bought above these levels, edward? Is there a reason you purchased SIRI within the last month vs. buying SCHM with those funds? Is there a reason you're attempting to discourage people from buying SIRI lower than your purchase price?

    If SIRI was $5 and had outperformed, would you suggest people buy it and sell SCHM? ;) If SIRI was $2 a share and had no appreciation in 2 years would you suggest people sell it?
    Apr 18 05:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    If they had 10 shares it would take a long time to put the same percentage dent in the outstanding quantity, because the shares would be more expensive.
    Apr 18 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    You're talking about quarterly / annual dividends but mentioned a 25 cent div and I wouldn't see SIRI firing out a quarterly or annual dividend of 25 cents, so assumed that would be a special dividend which would adjust options.

    I'd rather be in cash than pull 2.5 to 3.5%. Some young people might like that rate of return but it doesn't really interest me. I'm in a different position here though as I don't feel I *need* to make more... just that I *want* to make more and that I am in a position where I can take on significant risk.

    2.5 to 3.5% might be attractive in a few years I guess. Fire and forget, or buy a div stock and write OTM covereds, pull the div and go fishing. Will probably do the latter... just replace fishing with something else... I'm not a fisherman :)
    Apr 18 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    Yes, in Q3 when the paid nearly $3.70. Not so much in Q1 and Q2 when they paid less than $3.25. And yes, I think Sirius will overpay. I'm still waiting for the debt issuance to lever up so they can continue purchases.

    *if* in 5 years the share price is $10, will they have overpaid for the portion they bought around $3.70 in Q3 of 2013?

    Probably better to look at such a large buyback as an average and not pick apart the little pieces and hint that the whole batch is rotten based on short term movement in share price.
    Apr 18 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    "What really bothers me Stephen is the apparent manipulation of share price to accomodate LMC and SIRI. It bothers me that these situations occur and there's no apparent regulation that prevents it. It makes me wonder if my money is safe in the markets."

    Just expect and accept manipulation. :) Makes life much easier. We're not salmon. If humans try to swim upstream to spawn, well... we'd be extinct in a little over 100 years.

    "This stock is for the patient investor over a few years of holding going forward. You could be A patient if you're thinking of short-term gains."

    Yes.

    "Any time I have a bird in the hand, it usually decides to take a poop."

    Make sure to use plenty of soap.
    Apr 18 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    Probably good that they have not, since if they were buying post Q3 there would be a lot of purchases much higher than current share pricing. $3.14 is a lot more attractive than a lot of the share prices seen since the Q3 call.
    Apr 18 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    I don't subscribe to the notion that if companies tend to buy high, SIRI bought high. I realize you didn't say that but I would think one would be able to consider their own valuations of a company and its repurchase plan and decide whether or not the company is repurchasing high, low, mid... whatever. You keep saying that companies tend to buy high. Do you feel SIRI has bought high? Do you feel SIRI will buy high? That's all that matters. Not what other companies tend to do.

    ""Shareholder value can be enhanced by a buyback and over the longer term (not shorter, trader term) it should be reflected in share price."

    Or shareholder value can be destroyed."

    Right and the sun could explode, and bees could grow teeth and chew my face off. Anything can happen, at any time. (If the bee thing happens forget it... it's over for all of us).

    I did sell SIRI once (other than to go into options and the stuff surrounding expirations ) back in 2012. Thought it may trace down a bit more than it did and was a little concerned short term. More a technical thing than anything which is why I mentioned I'd repurchase at the sell point if I did not get my lower buy, since I expected good things after. I do scale position too. Earlier in the year on the expiration of my options I bought shares, then scaled into options when the price dropped a bit and scaled in fully when it was lower. Just bought a large position with borrowed money at $3.01 as well (shares) which are not intended to be held more than 2 years.

    But I don't really trade blocks around a core position. I remember when I joined that satwaves site years ago. Lot of trading talk, "dry powder", sell a little buy a little let a little out scale this and that. I'm unable to separate my long term forest view from the necessary short term tree view with SIRI. While I am fairly good with projections on resistance areas in price and setting a yearly target, I am not so good with guessing the short term fluctuations as my view is warped by my longer term visions and causes me to hesitate / second guess (which is a death sentence for a trader, in my opinion).

    I don't think $4.18 was reached due to a dislocation caused by the buyback, though I would agree the removal caused one (I know I know how can the removal cause one and the existance not cause one.... take too long to attempt to explain, and I am not sure I could explain well enough anyways).
    Apr 18 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    But it isn't complete, even if it is under contract. Bird in the hand thing.
    Apr 18 12:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    "I would have hoped that there would have been a statement about it earlier"

    You won't get many, if any, statements about stuff like that outta SIRI. Haven't had that kind of clarity for a very very long time.

    "I would be happy to dash an article off about the issue..."

    God no! ;) I read them all! No more! lol

    " Unfortunately, studies show the companies often time buybacks quite poorly, and I am referring to multi-year trends."

    We'll see after multi years pass on the buyback then! Not a few months when the first allocation isn't even complete. :P
    Apr 17 11:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    "I would prefer it if siris management had the same discipline and waited for the stock to go on sale."

    Well it appears it has, and better discipline even than the investor that purchased at higher levels (that includes you and I both! ;)
    Apr 17 11:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    Well I won't receive dividends on options. Yeah they are usually adjusted but if they are small they might not be, so I wouldn't receive benefit.

    The shares I just bought using a loan (everyone will tell me it's a stupid idea like the stuff I bought in 2009 on loan so I won't go into details....) are just shares though and not in a tax free account.

    Div stocks / reinvesting don't necessarily have good performance because of the dividend but more of the strategy (in my opinion) of choosing a mature company that offers more stability and less volatility and allows the dividend to compound on what is (usually) relatively lower share price appreciation. It's more because it is a disciplined and long term play where one doesn't run around like a chicken with their head cut off about the short term.
    Apr 17 11:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    But his approach should work long term. Might not short term. But that's why you take that approach, so you can add when you feel the share price is undervalued for your longer term.

    And if he's a permabull4life, one would hope it's long term... (cuz I don't wish anyone a short life :P ).

    Anyways... a rational approach often doesn't work in any stock's "land" on any given day. This is not something which is SIRI specific, and is why you have conflicting opinions from individuals all over the place, and why things like CNBC / blogs / "motley fool" etc exist... to capitalize on that madness.
    Apr 17 10:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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