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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM: Shorts Play Into Liberty's Hands, Again [View article]
    There is no guarantee that in a couple year's time if / when an RMT is done that both sides will make out equally.

    There's little benefit to worrying about who will do better at that time, though, because you could simply buy the stock of whoever you feel will do better shortly before the RMT (instead of buying years before and hoping both stocks trade in parity up to that point.)
    Jan 28, 2013. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Wise words.
    Jan 27, 2013. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Shorts Play Into Liberty's Hands, Again [View article]
    If the shorts were looking for the RMT to flood the market with shares... maybe 2 ? years out, they would not be shorting here.

    I think it's very important for people NOT to assume this is a long term play by shorts, but simply (for the most part) technical swing trading that happens to have been bought by Liberty and likely will continue to be bought by SIRI under Liberty's direction.

    Shorts may not even cover en masse. Depends where they shorted, and how far the price is above the short point. Lots of things come into play here. Part of (in my opinion) what caused shorts to cover so much in early August was the fact that the price bounced the 100 day moving average AND that MA turned up... it was all systems go at that point from a technical level and covering there was a smart move. In two to three weeks that 100 day MA is going to clip the $2.90 point, at which time you may find shorts again cover.

    Watching technicals there are points that scream "SELL THIS" or "SHORT THIS" for SIRI, and while not unwise to sell from a technical standpoint, a look into the fundamental story of SIRI begs extreme caution selling at those levels for the time being.

    Also consider some shorting can be part of rather complex strategies with options.

    In short... (no pun intended) I see no reason a short would short here for the LONG TERM hoping the price will roll over in a couple years at a much higher point. If that is your sentiment then you short right before the RMT, at the high price. Then again, if you do that you better be right thinking everyone receiving those SIRI shares is going to dump them...

    Part of this is why I get so frustrated with all the talk about what happens during or after an RMT and the boogeyman scenarios down the line that MAY happen. It's so far off, and really is of absolutely no concern right now. To focus on them now clouds one's view of the present. I'm concerned with the time in between now and the RMT. I'm concerned with how SIRI performs and what SIRI does while Liberty guides it here in the next couple of years. Different strokes for different folks, I know, and some may wish to explore all the little avenues and possibilities at that time, but for right now those little avenues and possibilities will not affect the stock at all.

    I'm rambling :)

    Anyways. Wanted to point out to readers that I wrote an article on AAPL as well.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    99% of stuff I write is on SIRI but I've decided to expand a bit for this year and not limit myself to SIRI only. For what it is worth I see a possible very lucrative quick trade in APPL here on a bounce or a bottoming out. I may play it myself with some short term call options around $425 right at the money, and look for a pop to $500. Risky bet for sure, but could pay off in spades. It's a matter of set it and forget it (thanks Ron Popeil!). Might mean I sell some SIRI ... but also might mean I come back in with 6X the cash to buy more if my sentiment and timing is correct. Wish me luck!
    Jan 27, 2013. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    As long as the Lion brushes its teeth first, I'm all good.

    SIRI at $2.92.... may be awhile or may not come for a very long time. That's 50 day MA territory right now and the price just bounced the 20, and we're leading into the Feb call with good expectations. Will take a bear retrace to hit that $2.92 soon, and a big bear market to pull it past later.... though I suspect buybacks wouldn't let it get there. Big buying on Friday despite low volume.

    Good to see ya in here :)
    Jan 27, 2013. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    What product do you expect and for what reason?
    Jan 26, 2013. 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    I bet those expire worthless next year and you get to keep the premium :) good play!
    Jan 26, 2013. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Perhaps... could go lower :) But somewhere it's gonna flip. I think $400 is safe enough for a mid to long term play... short term "guess" on the bounce point though could find someone roasted out in short order (weekly or monthly options, for instance).
    Jan 26, 2013. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Thanks a bunch F16flyer :)
    Jan 26, 2013. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Thanks for the link rain :)
    Jan 26, 2013. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Shorts Play Into Liberty's Hands, Again [View article]
    No I wanted to start trading a bit and will probably work up to trading 30% in calls. I just figured it'd bounce the 20 so decided to go with this trade here. If it tops out a bit I'll sell, rebuy, etc. One of the reasons I used options well in the money, triple exposure for pennies of time premium.
    Jan 26, 2013. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Shorts Play Into Liberty's Hands, Again [View article]
    Calls will be traded out if / when I feel the stock is a bit extended again. I'll use them to trade.
    Jan 26, 2013. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    I wouldn't doubt it goes on. I've been offered at times incentives to write for / about certain stocks since I started writing for SA (not from SA but from outside contacts / sources). Typically they are stocks I have never ever heard of, though... and my article history should show that I have written 99% of my content for SIRI only.

    I'm sure some will take the incentives but I think most simply write about their own personal opinions. For many... it's not about being right or wrong, but rather hearing themselves talk. (that could be said about myself to some extent too... I'm just offering my opinion, take it or leave it)

    For me, writing about AAPL was just something I wanted to do for awhile now. I have two articles I wrote but never submitted last year advocating selling / overbought in the 600's. I thought I'd just wait until I felt it was about to bottom / go up instead and write more on the bullish side to keep away from the bloodbath in the comments. Doesn't much matter apparently... this was more than I expected here, but at least I braced myself for it ;)

    And for what it's worth, I'm an average retail investor myself :)
    Jan 26, 2013. 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Hey thanks for reading! :)
    Jan 26, 2013. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Thanks Tom!
    Jan 26, 2013. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Can I "like" this twice?
    Jan 26, 2013. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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