Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
I have a current fair value estimation of $2.75 based on a number of factors. Depending on how long the Liberty thing takes, and how SIRI performs financially, that could go to $3 or $3.25 but $3.25 is my "high" estimate and I can't raise to that until or unless they raise financial guidance.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Wellington holds the top position at a bit over 200 million shares. Bondholders of the convertibles hold closer to the 300 million needed for the deal here.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
dmd, it's likely something that has been hashed out over time... months, and not something which they just fired off on a Tuesday. Consider Liberty likely paid a premium, or fee for these shares, also. The fact that they paid $2.15 per share doesn't mean they really paid $2.15 per share... they may have paid $2.15 plus 10 cents per as a fee, or 1 cent per, or 20 cents per... we don't know yet until that number comes out.
I think some analysts have assumed this was to happen. Though it's a huge "maybe" until it happens and much of their estimations are based upon SIRI doing as SIRI does.
Backroom deals can happen because Joe has 300 million shares and John wants 300 million shares so he says hey Joe, I'll buy those shares, and Joe says "ok." There is nothing that says John can't buy from Joe and has to go out and yell to the public "Sell me your shares!" and drive the price up for himself. It's legal... it's a forward contract. They didn't take delivery and they didn't have to disclose it while it was in the works.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
I don't think Mel can be blamed here. His hands have been tied, and he did not enter into the XM nonsense that got us to 5 cents to begin with (those convertibles). Mel did as well as he could up to this point.
That's assuming there was not some nefarious behind the scenes thing here... which I am not convinced that there was not :) But it makes me no money to speculate on the past.
Sirius XM has a Liberty choke hold and has had a Liberty choke hold until Liberty gets their control... Liberty will not choke themselves.
Plenty of upside left to the stock :) John Malone certainly thinks there is over and above $2.15.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Gate, this deal could have been agreed upon previously when the share price was lower. I don't expect much deviation from $2.15 until this is all taken care of on paper (as in Liberty secures the rest) which could be 2 weeks or 2 months or more out... hard to say. I think they'll want to get everything straightened away before SIRI puts the 3.4 Billion write (from the NOLs) on their balance sheet in Q2 as they indicated they were likely to do.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
I don't mean a floor as in SIRI PPS will never go under $2.15. I mean it's a floor where I consider anything at or below it, a strong buy for my longer term, or EOY to 12 months out. I already considered these prices strong buys. Malone merely gave me confirmation of that.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Short term the share price may float around $2.15 yes, but I expect whatever is being done will be done within the next couple months. I'm considering longer, end of year to 12 months out, term for this here.
I don't expect a tender offer for the other 5% either.
Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
I think Liberty buying back shares is exactly what will happen with the cash going forward. I benefit, you benefit, Liberty benefits... everyone wins there. If Liberty owns 51%, institutions own 20%, and retail owns 29%, then for every dollar that is bought back, liberty gets 51 cents, institutions get 20, and retail splits up the other 29.
The effect is equal and fair across all on a per share basis, though, and should push the share price up.
Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
Wifi is nice and if you have a mobile hotspot you can piggyback it into the phone through bluetooth and get some added features... on demand type of stuff.
2.0 allows for this and as the 2.0 radios are put into cars, it'll simply offer on demand piggybacked off your data, and use the satellite feed as well for the majority of how people will listen. Win win.
Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
Neal I have an article due out soon that explains my perspective (though it's kinda a consolidation of all my comments last night here and there). I see $2.15 as a floor now... strong buy at $2.15 and anything less. If the bonds out there somehow come into play and cause a sharp drop here anytime in the future, it'll cause "steal" pricing and should be watched for.
I think SIRI will use their NOLs and Liberty expects that. I also think Liberty is going to secure the rest of the shares they need before the end of the second quarter. Yes, it should move the share price up.
Synergies add value, as well as the simple fact that there is a single entity in control.
I'm pretty darn calm on this... expected Liberty's back door deal, expected them to move sooner rather than later for many reasons, fundamental and technical. While I was 'hoping' for a tender offer of some sort I never based my investing decision on any pop in Liberty. I invested in Sirius XM based on Sirius XM and the expectation that Liberty would take over soon. Happy that it appears to be happening now... one less "maybe."
Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
http://bit.ly/waG5Ai
On this page here, top institutional holders.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
I think some analysts have assumed this was to happen. Though it's a huge "maybe" until it happens and much of their estimations are based upon SIRI doing as SIRI does.
Backroom deals can happen because Joe has 300 million shares and John wants 300 million shares so he says hey Joe, I'll buy those shares, and Joe says "ok." There is nothing that says John can't buy from Joe and has to go out and yell to the public "Sell me your shares!" and drive the price up for himself. It's legal... it's a forward contract. They didn't take delivery and they didn't have to disclose it while it was in the works.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
That's assuming there was not some nefarious behind the scenes thing here... which I am not convinced that there was not :) But it makes me no money to speculate on the past.
Sirius XM has a Liberty choke hold and has had a Liberty choke hold until Liberty gets their control... Liberty will not choke themselves.
Plenty of upside left to the stock :) John Malone certainly thinks there is over and above $2.15.
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
Liberty Created A Floor For Sirius XM At $2.15 [View article]
I don't expect a tender offer for the other 5% either.
Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
The effect is equal and fair across all on a per share basis, though, and should push the share price up.
Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
2.0 allows for this and as the 2.0 radios are put into cars, it'll simply offer on demand piggybacked off your data, and use the satellite feed as well for the majority of how people will listen. Win win.
Buckle Up, Sirius Fans: This Is A Go! [View article]
I think SIRI will use their NOLs and Liberty expects that. I also think Liberty is going to secure the rest of the shares they need before the end of the second quarter. Yes, it should move the share price up.
Synergies add value, as well as the simple fact that there is a single entity in control.
I'm pretty darn calm on this... expected Liberty's back door deal, expected them to move sooner rather than later for many reasons, fundamental and technical. While I was 'hoping' for a tender offer of some sort I never based my investing decision on any pop in Liberty. I invested in Sirius XM based on Sirius XM and the expectation that Liberty would take over soon. Happy that it appears to be happening now... one less "maybe."