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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    You get them down the line, long term, when the return exceeds the cost.

    Not before.

    Share buybacks are a long term issue. I have said this over and over and over and over and over again.

    If I buy something today for $1 I don't realize gain until that thing is worth more than $1.

    If I bear interest cost on that $1 I don't realize gain until that thing is worth more than $1 + compounded interest +inflation.

    If I buy with cash I don't realize gain until that thing is worth more than $1 + inflation.

    There are other issues that go into this such as tax benefit on interest cost vs. cash cost.

    Once this is all calculated and borne out over YEARS then you will have your answer.

    Any and all investors in Sirius XM should run the numbers on this, weigh vs. expectations of company performance, number of shares repurchased, cost in cash and debt, and expected number of years to target and figure whether or not they wish to hold through the period or sell and repurchase (or not) later on.

    Or instead of doing that they can simply post on message boards asking if anyone else has done this work, despite the fact that at least one individual has communicated the answer in multiple comments and articles.
    Jul 19, 2015. 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    No. Why in the world would Sirius XM or the car companies pay to install Sirius XM equipment in vehicles intended for sale outside of North America?

    That wouldn't make one shred of sense. None.

    Used vehicles that are exported post North America sale may have satellite radio but it would be absolutely, completely and utterly useless outside of Sirius XM's coverage area.
    Jul 19, 2015. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Also considering your comments above, WHY do you continue to hold SIRI?

    Your expectations are for the stock to be 3.65- below $4 by year's end, another offer from Malone so he can ... leverage to pursue his "cable dreams."

    Yet you own the stock.

    Why? What benefit do you see by holding, considering that you see absolutely no share price appreciation for the next 6 months (and a higher probability that the share price will be LOWER) followed by another LMCA offer followed by the company being essentially robbed of its cash / borrowing capacity?

    Yet you hold the stock.

    Why? Something doesn't compute.
    Jul 18, 2015. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    It has not missed more metrics than it has hit.

    Headlines are not indicative of what the expectations were by "analysts" and which of their expectations were met and which ones were missed. Generally headlines will focus on EPS or revenue only (keep it dumb for the audience).

    Total up the analyst estimates for those who follow the company, match them up to what the company reports.

    Sirius XM does not "miss" more than they hit or beat. This is certainly the case with the more important numbers... what the company guides vs. what they hit.
    Jul 18, 2015. 04:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    "Sirius has a history of missing more key metrics then meeting them, and that is also a problem."

    Don't make things up.
    Jul 18, 2015. 12:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    It's not.

    Trust me, funds are not sitting there salivating at the thought of buying a whole bunch of SIRI the moment it hits $5 per share.

    They're not.
    Jul 17, 2015. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Where what you say DOES make sense is when you are dealing with leverage through options. For instance for the past 5 days I have been trading AAPL options here :

    http://bit.ly/1Sq8skq

    Lot of stuff to weed through and don't mind the Midas guy on there... he's a local troublemaker, but anyways...

    If I can buy an AAPL $127 option for 80 cents, I only have to spend $80 for a contract that underlies 100 shares. Those 100 shares would cost me $12,750 (roughly at the time of the trade). This is a way for someone who doesn't want to front a large amount of money a way to use the leverage afforded by the option to gain large amounts on small movements in the share price. Thus the option moves quickly while the share price of the stock (more expensive) moves slowly.

    Buying 300 contracts at $0.80 cost me $24,000. To buy the same amount of shares underlying the contracts (30,000) would have cost me $3,825,000 (Eh, a bit much for me... hell a bit much for every single trader I know... ). $24,000 would have bought 188 shares of AAPL.

    The stock only moved about a dollar today, so that $24,000 put into SHARES would have yielded profit of $188... negligible, not particularly worth it right?

    But the option in question held until close was worth $1.58 (unfortunately I sold at $1.45), for a profit if held until close of $23,400.

    This is not to suggest that someone with just a little bit of money to invest and especially someone "new" to the market should even get into options, but what you are describing with low priced stocks vs. high priced stocks is actually what happens when using options for leverage.

    That said it is EXTREMELY HIGH RISK and one little blip on the day, one piece of bad news, one trend reversal or fail on support and someone in options could lose EVERYTHING without a properly set stop loss. AAPL falling a dollar today would have almost completely wiped out the holder of those same options.
    Jul 16, 2015. 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Yes it is. And I know you say you will leave the subject alone but this is so very important to understand here and I am not sure you are getting it...

    Let's say I have $2000 to invest. I can choose SIRI at $3.50 or GAGA (made up stock) at $35 per share.

    To your point I can buy MORE shares of SIRI.

    SIRI 2000 / 3.5 = 570 shares with $5 left over

    GAGA 2000 / 35 = 57 shares with $5 left over

    Now each stock appreciates by 50%

    SIRI is now $5.25
    GAGA is now $52.50

    Final value for the investor :

    SIRI 570 * $5.25 +$5 = $2997.5
    GAGA 57 * $52.50 +$5 = $2997.5

    There is NO advantage or disadvantage to a lower or higher priced stock. NONE. ZERO.

    This is in part why I have labeled the comments saying SIRI should do a reverse split "dumb" and similarly the comments that say "the only problem with SIRI is how many shares it has outstanding" as "dumb."

    But that gets into more discussion and explanation.

    I want to be clear I am being difficult with you on this because it is such a basic concept and you have been commenting for so long now. I know you are not a new investor and I think it would benefit you to get rid of this mentality...
    Jul 16, 2015. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    I don't follow the technicals that much (as in I look at them in a more general sense). Not a fan of taking horizontal distance and using it as a projection. Stuff can drag a long time on low volume and not have as much effect as a quick drop and pop on high volume.

    Bottom to top + top. Keep it simple. That's about $1.20 added to $4.18 = $5.38 target but again, margin of error.

    Yes the retreat on the previous C+H was about 66% I think... this one about 33%.
    Jul 16, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    We'll find out in the quarterly report.
    Jul 16, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    If you do not have enough to buy a share of a $35 stock you PROBABLY shouldn't be buying 10 shares of a $3.50 stock.

    The trade fees alone in and out would amount to about a half to two thirds of your $35.

    If you're buying 100 shares of SIRI or 10 shares of a $35 stock it DOES NOT MATTER which one goes up 66%... you make the SAME on each.

    Same with 1,000 and 100, or 10,000 $3.50 and 1,000 $35 or 10 shares of a $3,500 stock or ONE share of a $35,000 stock... if each goes up 66% every single investor made the exact same amount based on how much they invested.

    Most accounts need $2,000 to open (has been awhile since I opened mine but this is what it was years ago). If you have $2,000 you can buy 99.X% of stocks out there.

    This is the most basic question that they used to give on those IOWA tests when I was a kid. I would look at the question asking which weighed more and wonder who... who in the world would guess that the same weight of gold weighs more than the same weight of the feathers....
    Jul 16, 2015. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    The same exact amount.

    BAFFLING that this idea that a 66% return from $35 yields less than a %66 return from $3.50 even EXISTS.

    66% is 66%... I can't fathom why some do not understand such basic math, ESPECIALLY if you are in the market.

    What weighs more 2,000lbs of feathers or 2,000lbs of gold?

    Good lord.
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:23 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    The problem with throwing things at the wall is commenters (as far as I know) don't work for SIRI in the capacity to make their suggestions on what they think SIRI should do and have them carry any weight with the company.

    While this might be a good idea... I am not sure what one does with it other than dream ?

    Not trying to be insulting ... hopefully you get what I am saying here :)
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Yet that is what people have invested in. SIRI has never been any of those companies you listed, so anyone who has purchased SIRI expecting it to become them likely has a few screws loose.
    Jul 15, 2015. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Sirius XM On The Back Of Strong June Auto Sales [View article]
    Michael I think you're following along with SIRI quite well.

    I'd caution you to not get wrapped up too much in auto sales and that good months will translate into better stock prices. Obviously auto sales have shown steady improvement but SIRI's share price performance has not matched auto sales increases. Part of this is due to the fact that new car sales are becoming less important (than used car sales) over time. Look at new car sales as building out the installed base of receivers available. They could slow and it wouldn't matter... too much.

    Take a look at my article from today if you get a chance and let me know what you think about the C+H potential here. You have nailed the key support in your graphic above. Be mindful of where it COULD go IF that support were to break for any reason (SIRI specific or macro weakness) as well as projections if the current pullback is to be broken.

    I see minor resistance at $4 before the Q2 call, and if broken a rapid rise much like when $2.40 was broken years ago in the same formation. Thoughts?

    Thanks.
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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