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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    Dave I like your hair cut.
    Dec 5, 2014. 08:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    "As someone else said, the only people making $ on this stock over the last year (since the offer and despite nice fundamental growth) is the SIRI Execs who are buying stock, via options at pennies on the dollar, and slamming them into the market... despite the price being significantly lower than the takeover offer, in-spite of the buyback. Also, in-spite of strong car sales and a stock market that has been doing great."

    Again I am not being mean (I am going to stop saying that after this post although I am still not "being mean" :P ) but this type of talk does nothing to help anything.

    I can point you to traders who buy and flip in and out and have made money on SIRI over the last year. I am "green" on SIRI this year as I have added twice at lower points. That completely invalidates the idea that the ONLY people making money on this stock over the last year are executives.

    Do you know when those options were granted? And they did this last year and the year before, as well. It's part of their compensation and in buying into the stock it is expected that one is to be aware of these options (as they are issued or pre-existing). The company discloses this. There should be no hostility towards the executives of the company you bought into collecting on their compensation. If one disagrees with the pay packages it may be best to not buy the stock or to sell the stock? Individuals also are able to buy the stock at time of issuance of the option and sell the stock at the same time an exec sells the option and takes profits. Those individuals would profit in kind... There should be absolutely no animosity here.

    "So, where would this stock be if there was no buyback?
    Logically, it would be even lower."

    Logically one can not make such a conclusion, so no it's not logical. I can SEE how you would think that such a line of thinking IS logical but it is not. The company would have a different structure here if it had not been buying back shares. More shares out, less debt, more cash. You are not thinking about all the things that go into a share price. The EV should be SIMILAR here without a buyback and thus present a similar share price... though perception may be different. Price could be more or less. Who knows?

    I think you will find good company amongst sellers after Jan 1st. There may very well be more who are frustrated and looking to exit but unwilling to sell now as they want to defer taxes until next year.

    Not sure buying LMCA would make much sense, though.... the market cap of LMCA is made up and tied to the valuation of SIRI. If you don't feel SIRI will appreciate, then it is unreasonable to expect that LMCA will do much better...

    Good luck to you as well :)
    Dec 5, 2014. 08:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    "Rough day with this stock, makes "dead money" seem like a blessing."

    Does it? I know people are accusing me of being mean here so let me clear up that I am again being direct when I say the following :

    "The only reason you'd want it to trade any higher during a buyback is if you intend to sell, are looking to trade and are biased long / positioned for SP increase, or are margined against your holdings (or hold some sort of options that run the risk of going OTM).

    Other than that there is no reason at all to want the share price higher for anyone who is long and looking to hold. Why anyone would want a company they hold to pay more for shares and retire less is beyond me... (again unless they are looking to sell, then I can completely understand the sentiment.)"

    SEC filings were not posted today. Where do you see this? What makes you believe that someone exercised options and sold them today? If that is the reason, why didn't exercised options last week push the price down in such a fashion? Is your assumption more options were exercise and sold here?

    You don't want to sell for taxes? Would you sell higher despite even more taxes there? If you're paying taxes you have sold for a gain... are you currently short term holdings on SIRI vs. long and need to wait? How can you possibly assume that insiders are not concerned about taxes? Perhaps they are not because they realize that taxes are inevitable and simply part of the process?

    Why are you in SIRI if "the Executive Team at SIRI are nothing more than LMCA puppets."? This should have been known since 2009. There has never been any question about this. LMCA held 40% and despite not holding control, certain "rules" of the agreement had them with veto power so... they had control. Anyone buying since 2009 or holding after LMCA went to control should have understood this when doing their research before going long, or keeping up with the company while being long. Less hostility towards LMCA. Without them it is likely SIRI would not be where it is today.

    LMCA may be the better play. It's all in how you believe future developments will take place. Make sure you understand LMCA before buying it is all I suggest. It's much more complicated to understand LMCA than it is to understand SIRI by itself.

    Why did you have to check LMCA's composition to tell you their percentage of SIRI and then have to make deductions based on that as to whether they have sold into the buyback? Any SIRI investor should be well aware of when LMCA has sold into the buyback and the fact that they have not sold into the buyback since. There has been a lot of information about this and the filings have been clear.

    If you feel there's more going on (the market is full of "more going on") I'd suggest not looking at the share price every day. I do get the feeling you'd like to sell out, though, and I can certainly understand that if that is the case careful monitoring of the day to day movements may be needed in order to find the best exit point. That would have been a recent top area in the $3.60's a few days ago, and will be again if the share price approaches that again. You'll find company there in selling from traders who just bought today's dip and want to flip their shares out for a few pennies. If it breaks that area similarly traders will buy a break... so you have to ask yourself if the company has exhausted this range enough to where it needs to move the buyback up to get the volume necessary to skim enough shares.

    If you're long and looking to invest in the company and the company is buying back shares, down days should be cheered... I feel like I am alone in saying this but oh well :P
    Dec 5, 2014. 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Sirius XM Is Still A Good Bet [View article]
    Delivery method matters when you have a monopoly on the delivery method.
    Dec 5, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    It's not the result of the bonds. Has nothing to do with the price long term.

    Won't get a bunch of positive news in the middle of buybacks.
    Dec 5, 2014. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Retail Holders Now Own Less Than 15% [View article]
    Look at it less as "the market is saying" and more as simply that there are enough willing sellers to fill the buy orders. People sell for all sorts of reasons... and a lot of people (As evidenced by comments all over the place) have a lot of confusion over so many matters. That and time will beat many out of their shares. Time can be had by playing certain games as described in some of my recent articles and working in conjunction with traders who have no interest in the actual value of the stock (either up or down) outside of technical targets.

    I have people who were looking for $5 last year sell out this year near $3 a few months later... not because they felt SIRI was overvalued, but more because they felt "oh my God what if SIRI goes to $2???" with no rational thought behind it. Plenty of people like that. Beat 'em out like dirt from an old rug :P
    Dec 5, 2014. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    http://bit.ly/12DtoSz

    "In biology, culling is the process of segregating organisms from a group according to desired or undesired characteristics. In animal breeding, culling is the process of removing or segregating animals from a breeding stock based on specific criteria. This is done either to reinforce or exaggerate desirable characteristics, or to remove undesirable characteristics from the group. "
    Dec 4, 2014. 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Retail Holders Now Own Less Than 15% [View article]
    They won't.
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Sirius XM Is Still A Good Bet [View article]
    I am not concerned with streaming, both before and after reading your comment (I can't follow it again... lol I swear I am not trying to be a jerk but you have a stylistic way of writing that my brain just does not process....???? I tried google translate but they don't have Jbgoose in there as a language option! :P :P :P).

    We disagree on streaming and that is fine..

    I don't know why people attempt to change my mind on the streaming thing... it's constant... should see the emails I have gotten about it over the last 3 years about how the age of streaming is just a year or two away....
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    I have been "mean" to you too. At least your head has stopped bobbling around a bit. Seems the nails I used were strong enough.
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    This was trying not to keep it too long? =/ hahahaha

    You have to hit me in small doses man... =/ really. Keep it short.

    1) Don't worry about it. Don't worry about volume and whatnot. No impact from the converts. Done and done. Don't look beyond it. Any holder if they wished to exit shares would have done so beforehand anyways.

    2) Previous C+H is a no. Triple top break $3.65? Reverse head and shoulders last couple months? Cup and handle same duration if it pulls back to 200 slowly? I dunno... I still figure around $4 at some point on a break here. Last year's highs fall around mid range value for Jan (my range).

    3) I guess. Maybe. At some point. I don't know really... and neither does anyone else. I'm working on a range of valuations... sometimes as a curiosity I'll project up short term (so like right now, near $4 as stated) but I pay attention more to where I think value is at (usually I just keep it simple under the 50 day but there have been several reasonable buy points above the 50 day this year). Anyways I know you're looking for some hope on some options. I'd write the $4's off as gone and count my lucky stars if they ended up in the money if I had any. Again... stay away from out of the money options.

    4) Ya... this isn't some nefarious plot or anything. They don't steal shares or anything like that. Everyone who sells does so willingly. Anyone can buy here too, or add, if they find it to be undervalued.
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Retail Holders Now Own Less Than 15% [View article]
    Oh Jesus I said my sell target for Jan 2015 was $4.85 an a few people are all upset over that lol. I even said I hoped it never came close!

    Honestly I'm happy if people sell out, do sell out, etc... this becomes less of a circus act the more people sell out. It has already quieted down considerably.

    I know you're joking but $6 doesn't even come in my range until early 2017 and depends on a host of factors.
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    That's a good bet :P
    Dec 3, 2014. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    Ok well that ends that then :) Thank you.
    Dec 3, 2014. 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Understanding Price Control [View article]
    No I said the share count was not a "problem."

    And it's not. To suggest the share count is a problem with any stock is stupid... yet people say it over and over about SIRI hoping to make it true or because they don't know what the heck they are talking about. They usually follow with other stupidity like saying that a reverse split would be great because at 1:10 they'd have a $36 stock.

    But they stupidly ignore the fact that they would have 1/10 the shares and have the same amount of money, probably less... because SIRI would have to pay costs associated with the reverse split. It would only make sense to do one if the company paid a dividend, and they won't, because a dividend doesn't make sense.

    I'm reaching for the nearest 2X4.... ;P
    Dec 3, 2014. 05:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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