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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Could Trigger Another Super Squeeze [View article]
    LA you are far more patient than I ;)
    Dec 28, 2012. 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Here Comes The January Effect [View article]
    tom,

    You sure part of that wasn't a trade fee? $10 takes cost basis on the *shares* down to $2.92, $20 takes it to $2.90, etc. (roughly).
    Dec 28, 2012. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    Too many assumptions that the shorts see something or are even expecting something fundamental to come through the pipes.

    I realize I am fairly new to twitter but it's fascinating watching the day traders on there flip shares of this or that based solely on technicals. There have been tweets regarding SIRI suggesting shorts under $2.90 or at $3 both. There are also tweets saying $SIRI is a buy in the $2.80's or over $3.

    I think we see some of the effects here in the dwindling activity and either side ending up hands off until or unless the share price moves one way or the other with force.

    The problem with trying to pick apart the number itself and make assumptions from it is that nobody knows what is behind each and every single one of those shorts. How many are hedged with the bonds, if any? How many are hedged with options? How many are in plays like short SIRI long LMCA? How many are technical bets? How many are actual fundamental bets that something tragic is in the pipes for SIRI?

    How many covered on 12/14? Or for that matter, did any cover? How many are now short? How many are shorting $3? How many are shorting $2.90? Etc etc.

    How many are shorting with certain "Fiscal Cliff" expectations?

    What can be roughly deduced from the data of positions and timeframes / share prices, is that the increase happened in a one month span from mid November to mid December, and it was an increase of roughly 75 million shares short. The price in this timeframe was dragging an average around $2.75 per share.

    Currently the share price is not only $0.15 higher but the shorts (if one assumes they did not cover, and volume post 12/11 to the ex div date does not suggest they did) were subject to the $0.05 dividend payment, putting them on average $0.20 behind today.

    To break even these *new* shorts on average must find cover prices around $2.70, and to make a profit they must find cover prices lower. I don't put much faith in the idea that this is a pyramid of sorts and will continue to increase, either.
    Dec 28, 2012. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    You should get it by the end of today so it may not show up in the account until tomorrow / Monday. My RTK Dividend paid yesterday and showed up today or late last night.
    Dec 28, 2012. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    He's referencing my article linked at the end of this one which I published on 12/12 before the 12/14 rise from $2.68 to $3.10 on heavy volume on the CRB announcement, 15.67%, which falls within above the 15% move delineated in many definitions of "short squeeze."

    "done debating" yet back again and again....
    Dec 28, 2012. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    Thought you were not debating further? :)
    Dec 28, 2012. 07:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    "I said "But I know what the shorts are thinking. I disagree with it . . . ." What part of "disagree with it" did you not understand?

    As to whether I care to share what the shorts are thinking, no not at the moment. You're the author. Do your own job. And if you fail, don;t ask someone else to do it for you in the comment section. "

    I'm not asking you to do anything other than tell us all what the shorts are thinking. Because, as you clearly stated, you KNOW and DISAGREE and I thought that perhaps you could share your wisdom with the readers that you apparently seem to feel are being misled by this "novice."

    Your response is EXACTLY what I expected, and is essentially "no I'm not telling you!"

    "My criticism is the approach you take, one that is needlessly silly and quite reckless. There is a buyer and seller on every trade, meaning disagreement is a fact of life in the market. You must ALWAYS know what the other side is thinking if for no other reason than to double check your own work; nobody should be so arrogant as to assume that this can be skipped. You do your readers a dis-service when you brush aside the substantial short interest as mere insanity. "

    Yet I never said the short interest was "mere insanity." Those are your words, and certainly not mine. I questioned the sanity of the shorts, and I maintain that I do not find soundness of judgement in these short positions. I'm rather clear here.

    "And by the way, I'm not going to debate this any further, because it's not worth more discussion."

    Again, completely expected. Thank you! Stop wasting my time, and stop wasting the reader's time. Take your ball, pout, and go complain some more about Paulo's position on Amazon. I don't need your granddaddy lecturing.
    Dec 27, 2012. 11:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    You're welcome tealone :)
    Dec 27, 2012. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Here Comes The January Effect [View article]
    "This includes the time period after the big spike on the 13/14."

    No, cjoe, the most recent short data is from a settlement date of 12/14 and does not include the activity from 12/13 and 12/14 as you state. The closing date of 12/14 means the final trade date was 12/11.
    Dec 27, 2012. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    Quite true :)
    Dec 27, 2012. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    With 1,000 to 2,000 articles a year on SIRI... some are bound to overlap ;) lol
    Dec 27, 2012. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    You may question one's sanity (soundness of judgement) on any decision, and I will likely say it again many times. If I found the short position to be sound of judgement, then I would have to question MY soundness of judgement in being long. One side is right here, and one side is wrong.

    I find it fascinating that my statement of "a novice investor with a lot to learn," is constantly taken and used to paint me as... well, a novice. Always left out of the quote is the remainder :

    " and always will consider myself as such"

    When and if I am 90 and old and gray, if I am asked, I will always say I am a novice. I will never ever be an expert at anything in life, because there is always plenty to learn, and there are always things I do not know. I am always looking to learn. I'd say it surprises me (but it doesn't) how wrong the self proclaimed "experts" are over and over and over again.

    Your statement :

    "I know what the shorts are thinking."

    Absolutely begs explanation. Unless it is "they are thinking the share price will go down," then would you care to share what it is these shorts are thinking? Do you feel that the short position is of sound judgement here? If so, do you also feel that your long position is of sound judgement?

    "Naively questioning the sanity of those who take positions opposite yours, the hallmark of an amateur, might work out in your favor every now and then, but over the long term, you're likely to get your head handed to you."

    I would suggest that naively assuming one knows the intentions or motivations of others is the hallmark of the "expert." While this may work out in their favor now and then, over the long term the expert is likely to get his head handed to him. One head, one body... it only takes once.
    Dec 27, 2012. 03:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    "But, I suspect that's not what you have in mind. ;-)"

    I didn't mean on a percentage basis, I meant on a share count basis. I'm really not looking at or into what will happen during the RMT yet.
    Dec 27, 2012. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    When I've owned funds and such (I don't anymore) I have received shares of dividends paid. Typically I had these set up to reinvest in the fund. I understand the fund is under no obligation to purchase more shares of SIRI, but it may. I would not be surprised to see institutional ownership trending higher as time goes along here, dividend or not.

    I'm not saying the stock will shoot up on the 28th. Heck the payments may not hit accounts for a day or two after, and some will take time to make decisions, but I do feel that this payment will be reinvested in part in additional shares.
    Dec 27, 2012. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    Honestly I see much of this as technical shorting. Much of it is traders, as SIRI is highly traded. If you need shares you can pick them up at the extremes, or drag the 50 day (or heck, knock it down a little below it) and the shorts will follow.

    Not to say the longs can't be manipulated in like fashion...

    We saw Malone do this buying at $2.50 as shorts sold right into his hands.

    The number certainly isn't 370 million bets against SIRI... and you listed a couple examples of what the position might entail. Is it short SIRI long LMCA? I don't care for that play, but it could be.

    In my opinion it's a considerable amount of technical trading.

    Volume the past couple of days is pathetic. Fine by me :) Waiting for my RTK and SIRI dividends. Maybe I'll get a purchase price in the $2.80's :)
    Dec 27, 2012. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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