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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    "They sell when the stock gets overbought and buy when it gets oversold."

    Yet comparison of prices, and increases in the short position have indicated that this hasn't been the case so far. Even the most recent increase in position happened in the $2.70's before the dividend. Hell, the short postion decreased as the share price went down from $2.95 then increased in the period it hit intra day $2.55.

    I don't think this is so complicated as you make it sound, or that it requires peering into the minds of the roughly 150M assumed unhedged shorts. I think to chase ghosts and shadows serves the cloud one's judgement the most, and I think chasing ghosts and shadows and trying to form a duke-ish story here is absolutely the biggest mistake one can make. There are never any answers offered, just question after question after question. Asking questions and playing a guessing game is great but excess speculation and spending too much time running down alternate paths can work against you in a very big way.

    Much like our vitamin D deficient friend Marc up there saying something to the effect of "I know what the shorts are thinking but I'm not telling you!!!"... waste of time.

    You write *exactly* like the guy (or people... at one point duke.u(niversity).fin(... did refer to itself as "we" and "us") that post under that name. Exactly. Except that you are far more polite, and for that I am appreciative :)

    Don't be a duke! On the short or the long side of the equation :)
    Dec 31, 2012. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    "Right again 30,000,000 million shares on 12/19......Showed up today"

    Where are you seeing this?

    Also I am not sure of your question regarding institutional selling. As far as I am aware there was a net increase in the institutional position (when UBS is removed from the picture assuming their stake was delivered to Liberty Media in the forward).

    I don't see a reverse split happening but one may be incorporated in to an RMT if / when that happens.
    Dec 31, 2012. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    Be warned... I do have a wild imagination, and my facts often need checking! ;) The market is half about facts, though, and half about being correct in predictions which honestly could go either way. Just a matter of picking out what you feel will matter most to the share price, and then (hopefully) being correct about it.

    I'm still waiting to jump on the Liberty will take SIRI to a new level camp. I absolutely and completely disagree that Liberty will be BAD in any way for shareholders... but I am curious to see if they will be taking SIRI to the next level or simply keeping it growing in stable fashion as they prepare to spin it out. EITHER way SIRI should do well.

    Happy new year to you as well :)
    Dec 31, 2012. 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    The Yahoo! board is aptly named.
    Dec 31, 2012. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    I know chippyarm :)
    Dec 31, 2012. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    Will be interesting to see how they approach this and how it works :)
    Dec 31, 2012. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    The song always reminds me of grocery shopping with my mom... or walking around Ames / Tj Maxx with her and hiding in the clothes and jumping out to scare the hell out of them when someone would come along the line looking through. It'd often be playing on the overhead speaker.

    Sometimes I wish I could go back to 4 years old and do that kinda stuff. I'd do it now but it'd probably get me arrested :(
    Dec 31, 2012. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    I know who you are referring to and despite disagreeing with some sentiment, I wouldn't miss a single article by them. They've kept me in check on some things, especially facts and figures, quite often, and I am certainly thankful for that!
    Dec 31, 2012. 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    I don't think he's a shill and I have talked with Richard in emails. He's been blunt and honest about getting too wrapped up in wanting to be correct, and has even stated that in an article or two. I give him a lot of credit for that. It's not easy, and as we see with some of the others they've simply disappeared or gone into hiding. As far as I know Richard is the only one who has "manned up" here.

    As in the song...

    "Don't say words you're gonna regret
    Don't let the fire rush to your head "

    (the passage I left out accidentally as I wrote this at 1 AM... =/ )

    I think perhaps both sides, the bulls and the bears, should take a step back once in awhile and not let anger enter into the equation. We've seen it cause the bears to be wrong, and I see a lot of anger directed at them from the bulls as well. Keep a level head, keep the accusations low or nonexistant and remember, the most frustrating thing for one who is attempting to push buttons is to not be successful in pushing those buttons.

    Easier said than done, I know....
    Dec 31, 2012. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    Mel's remaining options do not vest until today I believe. I am unsure if he needs to adopt a trading plan for the remaining shares or not.
    Dec 31, 2012. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 2013's Eye In The Sky [View article]
    Haha... I had no idea that was the case. :)
    Dec 31, 2012. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    " While it has fluctuated over periods of time since, it has consistently grown to today’s position of 370M."

    I don't consider it a pyramid because as you state and as I agree around 220M are hedged. Leaves 150M short unhedged (unless hedged in other ways... and some likely are.) If it was a matter of digging in heels and long term bets then the open position would not have dropped to 260M on the august run (40M unhedged, EXTREMELY low shorts) and it would increase when the price was UP not DOWN.

    In my opinion most of this is technical swing trading, and they got burned by Malone buying near the 50. I think they are again getting burned shorting the low $2.70's. These are not massive short positions, and I don't think these are averaged up long term bets. The data doesn't support that.
    Dec 31, 2012. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    Mine came in around 3 AM on Saturday the 29th. Varies for everyone it seems. Most should have it by today. Don't expect much action unless the fiscal cliff nonsense shows signs of one way or the other.
    Dec 31, 2012. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Could Trigger Another Super Squeeze [View article]
    http://bit.ly/Ud7MTx
    Dec 30, 2012. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: 370 Million Bad Ideas On The Short Side [View article]
    His promise to end the debate and then subsequently posting continued debate is quite typical. :)
    Dec 29, 2012. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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