Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Stephen Faulkner  

View Stephen Faulkner's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • SiriusXM Ups Share Buyback To $8 Billion [View article]
    Bring Iran in. The cheaper energy is the better for the masses.

    Got oil within 6% of my $35 target but I didn't pull the trigger... will see if waiting was the right decision or if I missed the chance. Certainly has had a nice bounce.

    Not saying I want you guys to lose money but I still think oil / silver / gold have a ways to fall here...
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    "You have never been on the board, and I have been"

    Yeah you're on or have been on the SIRI board and that Duke guy is a 19 year old girl in college. Right.

    Someone on the SIRI board would not be playing crazy commentator on SIRI articles.

    "When (not if) institutional investors start complaining that Malone is getting, in their view, excessive ownership via buybacks they will make Malone abandon buybacks unless Malone joins them."

    More stupidity. Institutional investors have been reducing their holdings by number of shares and selling into the buyback as their percentage of a constantly decreasing number of shares has dropped. None of them are or will be complaining. And non of them can or will "make" Malone do anything. They're on for the ride. Well guided or misguided as the case may be.

    Once an entity has the proper percentage of ownership it can FORCE the remaining holders. Ya think these institutions holding shares will play hardball with Malone and there's going to be some big fight and you're gonna hide in the corner of it all and benefit to the tune of 20 - 40% premium and line your pockets?

    You have a rude awakening coming for you, Mr Know It All :)
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    Taxes should be minimal. Satellite expense is an expense, thus will reduce taxable income. Can't put them in the same basket because one expense eliminates or reduces the other.

    Higher rates may mean less or no borrowing for buybacks as time wears on (a "problem" that will be known ahead of time, if it's a problem at all). And SIRI generates enough to pay for the satellite expenses coming up.

    Expenses are, generally, percentages of income so lower income in the case of some disastrous issue knocking subs down doesn't necessarily mean the company will have problems paying for content, at least not on the music side of things.

    Interest rates rising should be expected at some point and will not result in the company becoming "toast." That's an absolutely stupid statement.

    '08 and '09 was a completely different set of circumstances. SIRI is "different" today.
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    "Yes, it is not right or fair or whatever you call it that Malone is getting a larger piece of siri with buybacks for nothing"

    Yes, its' fair.

    "My answer is NEVER. As Maffei keeps saying, the last share is the most expensive one... and it may very well be mine."

    That's patently stupid. If your shares are the last shares you have no say. You can't hold a tenth of a percent of the company and block / guide anything. You're along for the ride. That's all.

    The last share is the most expensive is just like saying you always find something the last place you look. But hey, maybe you'll be right and get $4.19 for your share, right? :)

    "The original deal was doomed because of the exchange price and concern and fear that Malone may spend siri's cash on his cable deals. "

    Again speculation. You can't possibly prove this. The original deal was never brought for a vote. But here you are posting in definitive terms that what you say is true. What, because other people had the same opinion? The cable dreams thing? I and others are of a different opinion. The offer was made at a time LMCA was worth a historical premium to valuation and thus it made an attractive point to attempt to push this through as LMCA could offer a near 5% premium to SIRI holders in the proposed deal.

    Cable "dreams"? No.

    "Malone withdrew because he realized that he would be voted down and embarrassed."

    Prove it.

    "Now that the his cable business is spun off another offer, if it is right, has much better chance to pass."

    It does?

    "If it is not right he will get another, this time much fatter cake on his face."

    He will? And to say "another" he would have had to get one to begin with.

    I have never seen an investor base in a stock with so many individuals who make derogatory comments about the one who has ALL the control. Dancing around in the streets because some off the cuff deal never went through and pretending that they somehow won this great victory... while they sit there for 2 years bragging about it as the share price drags and everyone around them sells out to the one in control, giving that one more and more control every single day.

    The only victory you could possibly hope to achieve is solidarity among the minority and, no, "LOL," that ain't happening. A fragmented bunch easily corralled off into different pens and dissected at will if they don't die from old age. The rest get folded into the controlling entity no matter what they want or think, despite years of holding out, because when you're that far into the minority you do not matter one bit. Fleas on a camel's back.

    "Malone will NEVER get siri via buybacks. No one will let him."

    Time will tell, but time is telling that LMCA IS getting SIRI via buybacks because your fellow longs are happy to sell back and help LMCA reach that point.

    And more will sell.

    And more.

    But you claim no one will let them / him? Dunno dude... history is proving you COMPLETELY WRONG.

    To be clear here I am not saying those holding will not eventually benefit... I believe they will, but you say a lot of things that you can't prove and you seem to lack a certain understanding of what a majority holder can accomplish. You can hang on and ride along in kind with the majority holder (which you are doing, so learn to love it / him) or you can fall off the wagon with your fellow longs along the way.

    Or you can post about imaginary cake.
    Aug 29, 2015. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    It increases ALL holder's percentage of ownership.

    LMCA's percentage CAN NOT increase if existing holders DO NOT sell into the buyback as there would be NO shares available. All shares are WILLINGLY sold into the buyback. Period. Hold your shares and you benefit the exact same as LMCA does.

    "However, at some point the independent directors will have to stop the buybacks unless Malone agrees to sell back some. "

    You can't make this claim. Sirifair you spread a TON of misinformation. What you just said should read that this is your GUESS.
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    "He tried...;!!! Got a fat cake on his face. Another try like this make him look like a fool."

    Fat cake? What are you talking about? The offer was made and never voted on. All that ensued was a flurry of stupid comments (I had one myself) that SIRI investors should refuse the deal. Liberty retracted the offer.

    There were also a ton of comments about how "Malone" was doing this to "pursue his cable dreams" (as if somehow those that wrote that had any idea what in the world they were talking about).

    How is it "fat cake on his face" for LMCA to allow SIRI to buy back enough shares that the same end is reached for what amounts to ZERO premium to SIRI holders when a premium was offered in the original deal?

    Fat cake? Really?

    The only fools are people who believe that. Even worse are the ones that repeatedly scream that coming up on 2 years later, with SIRI's share price lower, LMCA's percentage higher, all for "Free."
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    Why do people always post that if interest rates rise it will be a problem?

    The company isn't taking out adjustable rate loans on this stuff. It's fixed with long term maturations that the company can easily pay off.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SiriusXM Ups Share Buyback To $8 Billion [View article]
    "A share buyback, done by the right management team, often means we cannot find a better return than our own stock.' Especially when done with borrowed monies."

    Aug 28, 2015. 01:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    Why would you buy in at $3.82 today when you state in definitive fashion that the "bull market is almost over"?
    Aug 28, 2015. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    "However, had Sirius XM not repurchased one share since that time, its stock would actually be lower today by about 2.5%. In other words, Sirius XM hasn't become a more valuable company since launching its buyback program in late-2012, but thanks to those buybacks, investors have enjoyed a 20% return."

    The buyback has added debt. Thus the market cap SHOULD have decreased due to this factor and the increased interest expense.

    Buyback is a long term issue.

    You absolutely CAN NOT make the claim that the buybacks have resulted in a 20% gain in share price and that absent the buybacks that the share price would be lower because the added debt FROM the buyback has a detrimental effect on market cap.

    Company A with similar metrics to company B, yet A with twice the debt of B, will find A with a market cap lower than B.

    Cash reserves (drained by a buyback) will also affect market cap.
    Aug 28, 2015. 01:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SiriusXM Ups Share Buyback To $8 Billion [View article]
    That's better.

    Though I boggle at trading a nickle on a $4 stock.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SiriusXM Ups Share Buyback To $8 Billion [View article]
    Richard read my articles that mentioned $4 resistance. ;)

    And if you have not "read" them then "read" them.

    Several public comments about it here and elsewhere. Several outlines of exactly what I was doing. Disclosures, mentions of pullback, patterns, etc. All have played out quite well, and all mentioned well in advance so anyone could take advantage of the moves.

    Not "two days ago I did this .... " :)

    Everyone did the right thing two days ago that they didn't tell you about until now ;)
    Aug 27, 2015. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SiriusXM Ups Share Buyback To $8 Billion [View article]
    Thanks CN. I thought perhaps last earnings might be enough to knock it through $4 but I wasn't confident enough to write that, hence the large delay in writing anything after earnings.

    There's reason for it to go over $4, sure, but the play has been and continues to be sell / short $4 (for me, hedged vs. the long call base) and cover "lower"... I've been out of the market (as far as trading) for the last couple weeks, unfortunately or fortunately as the case may be....

    The nice thing about being long calls and short against them at / near $4 is a simple long stop on a break gets you back on the right side... and the risk is simply lost profits , wherever you set that stop above $4. For me it had been $4.06.

    Still the risk you cover the short and become unhedged at the wrong time (like my last cover $3.90 post earnings and then the drop to $3.30 area but that's such a wacky move ... dunno anyone that mentioned it may be coming ahead of time and was positioned for it). Monday open had I looked at my account I probably would have gotten a little uneasy...

    Anyways, watch the Sept $4 calls, see if they move. Whoever owns them is doing, I assume, the same as me, and I believe they have moved them out twice now. Not a fan of following the leader, but doesn't hurt to keep an eye on someone playing with 80,000 + contracts like that.

    Richard bought near a top. Clearly the shares would have at least retreated to 3.60's after topping earlier in the year. I mentioned this elsewhere... can't remember if it was in direct message or on an article or something. Someone asked if I had read that "Cameron Kaine" had gone long and I said I skimmed it and that he had bought a top.

    It's ok though. Like everyone else who bought higher / tops they've now "averaged down" :) Too bad they didn't just not buy the top and wait and buy all the shares lower. Averaging down is confirmation that the first buy was a mistake if you're trading. Not such a huge deal if you are investing with averaging in as the objective.

    Anyways... :)
    Aug 27, 2015. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SiriusXM Ups Share Buyback To $8 Billion [View article]
    "No, they wouldn't. They would say it's too little in earnings for each share. Do 1:1000 reverse split and you have ~5.4 million shares outstanding with each one worth $3,810."

    Aug 27, 2015. 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OK, I'll Say It: Sirius XM Had A Great Quarter [View article]
    Nader doesn't matter.

    Didn't understand the offer.

    And it doesn't matter that he didn't understand it because he doesn't matter.

    Aug 26, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment