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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    For those who have been asking for an update on the Aug 16 calls I exercised them and sold the shares just now so they are closed out.
    Aug 15 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    If it doesn't make sense then I can't help you.
    Aug 15 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Does EPS Matter? [View article]
    Perhaps you should start writing articles instead of saying the same thing over and over in comments.
    Aug 14 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Too many speculate as to what Liberty "wants" or Malone "wants." Often they even state it like it's some sort of fact... Huge mistake, in my opinion. One can guess at different paths that may be followed and apply a probability to each one... but presuming to know exactly what is in the mind of another? Foolish.

    I've said for a long time that LMCA may not sell back all the high basis shares, and speculated here and there on how many they may sell back... but I never assumed the path was set in stone that they would do X, Y, and Z...

    From what I have read over the years, nearly all of the speculation has been wrong to various extents.

    People are already going down the path of "Liberty is going to steal the NOLs" (again) or they will take over SIRI and use them vs. something else in the LMCA bucket. We'll see how that one plays out.... ;)

    As to your question, sure, the high basis is still high basis... nothing would change that.

    Share count goes down but debt does go up / cash goes down so share price SHOULDN'T be affected by a buyback short term. Only way to gauge efficacy is to look at the share price after the debt is repaid and then go back and analyze where the SP would be if SIRI had instead just amassed cash and left the shares alone, or fired out dividends (in which case they would need to be added in).

    Market cap adjusts over time, yes. There's a compound effect, or should be.
    Aug 14 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    That wouldn't be a good idea without taking into account all that has gone on in the past 3 years (such as the spin out of Starz, for instance).
    Aug 14 08:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    We differ in opinion on this.

    Unfortunately I think that means a lot of long winded posts disagreeing with me over time here (on this topic at least).
    Aug 14 07:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    "Liberty offered 3.68 per share because that's what they think it's worth for their own purposes."

    But they didn't offer $3.68 per share. They offered an equity swap which, at the moment of the offer, valued SIRI at $3.68 per share. That valuation IMMEDIATELY shifted based on arbs moving the two stocks.

    There was a huge amount of reading material on this. Yet here we are over half a year later and people still look at it as a cash offer...
    Aug 14 07:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Also for what it is worth I was speaking with the investor I'm in on the $3's with and we were discussing this upcoming move I was looking for. Explained my reasoning for buying Aug 16 calls instead of going for the cheaper calls right after earnings... wanted to leave wiggle room and also this week puts us more than 200 days past the "peak" last year, leveling off the 200 day MA and making it easier to poke through.

    Thankfully it happened. In some ways I wish I had given myself one more week, though. This was tight.

    (I also wish I had doubled or tripled position when I could get them for a penny but I get nervous like anyone else out there ;) )
    Aug 14 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Yeah golden cross is on the way but takes a bit to get there. Why I figure it grinds a new range soon. Tomorrow should tell where that range is. I don't think $3.55 caps the range, either.... wouldn't leave enough room to work it around. Previous trend gives me cap in the mid $3.60's so I'll stick with that.

    I wasn't too sure about today until it closed hard on $3.55 with a big ask buy to boot and then a million AH at ask as well. Thought the 50 week MA would matter but looks to be irrelevant at the moment.
    Aug 14 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    $3.55 is an inflection point, really. Meeting of a resistance and a support here. Closed extremely strong but tomorrow is another day.

    For what it is worth it's over all the MA's now except the 200 month which is way way up there and is irrelevant.

    50/50 on a buy here for short term trade. Long term I prefer to just buy the 50 day and not let short term moves influence my decisions.
    Aug 14 05:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Yup individual funds will buy and sell. Happens. Every quarter. It's not concerning in the least. I'm interested in the trend, how much % they hold, and the % remaining of retail compared with the % LMCA owns. That's all.
    Aug 14 05:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    They sold. They aren't selling. This is a good thing :) They sold Liberty also.
    Aug 14 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Every few weeks there's news, and people tie it to moves yesterday, today and tomorrow.

    I'm waiting for the "Why Sirius XM Is Up Today" article citing that SIRI has some special show or something coming up....
    Aug 14 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    Yeah but these people do their homework. Certainly they do not get everything right, but they do well (unless I am misinterpreting what I see with my eyes...)

    One of them is my partner on the $3 buy. He may be the crazy one... ;) But we'll see if this heads to $4 over time and he's a happy camper. I told him about 6 months. Looks pretty good so far. 10% is locked, though it's sitting at 18% now.
    Aug 14 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Nothing has changed. Nothing needs to change for a stock to go up like this.
    Aug 14 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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