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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Would probably show EPS of 0 if the full charge was taken.
    Jul 15, 2015. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    And we have one vote for lower! Are you positioned short to take advantage?
    Jul 15, 2015. 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Will take time to get to that point. I wouldn't be concerned about it. Game won't change overnight and I am sure LMCA is paying attention to the possibility of change and could maneuver around it.

    Regardless that doesn't affect the SIRI end unless one is invested there waiting for a spin.
    Jul 14, 2015. 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    I haven't invested in SIRI looking for a spin off.

    Over the years I have heard so many people talk about some form of RMT like it was set in stone. Using terms like they "will" or "when" they do instead of might or maybe or possibly. To date they have been 100% wrong.

    They don't need to spin out SIRI to make use of it. I wrote an article about this some time ago :

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I'd probably write that a bit differently today but the idea is the same (as I said since I started writing I'm sorta learning as I go here... I don't claim to have a history or education in investing or trading... just a guy with an opinion and hopefully half a brain ;) ).

    Why would LMCA spin out SIRI and reduce margin collateral capacity? Doesn't make sense.

    SIRI affords LMCA a massive amount of stable flexibility. I guess one could argue they break it apart and retain controlling stake but then... why? What's the purpose? Sell it? Just keep it under LMCA.
    Jul 14, 2015. 12:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    It's unlikely there will be any equity specific news for $38. Doesn't need it. Proper good news should cause a breach of $40 on volume.

    Just looking at it through short term eyes. Can be valuable if trying to time an exit. Quite a few bailed at recent lows just days ago and I'm sure they're regretting it at the moment.
    Jul 14, 2015. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Famous last words ! ;)

    So you have a limit sell at $38?

    LMCA / K appears more attractive short term anyways. Suffered more than SIRI this pullback. You could get that $38 this week pretty easily if the market holds here.

    So you should be able to smile and get out very soon!
    Jul 13, 2015. 11:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    I'm sure you will get your chance near $4 again soon enough.
    Jul 13, 2015. 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    So if they hold the cash, do not buy back any shares at all, and continue along as is then the future cap would be ~$27 billion?

    Don't think so. You'd end up with less interest expense, or none. You'd end up with a pile of cash. You'd end up with zero debt.

    It'd change things, considerably.

    I have a cat riding a unicorn shooting laser eyes holding a golden gun rampaging through a happy field with rainbows as my profile picture. I'm not in corporate finance, but I've done well with my investment in SIRI.

    I think you will struggle to see your valuations outside of a large market correction.
    Jul 13, 2015. 01:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    You are modeling that SIRI will go from a current market cap near $21 billion to around $13 billion in this new spread sheet over 8 years.
    Jul 12, 2015. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Your model assumes share repurchases will be done at a share price which is nearly 400% above current share price in 8 years (2023).

    Wouldn't that assumption, then, mean that you assume someone purchasing SIRI at $3.70 today and holding would see nearly 400% appreciation in 8 years? Roughly 18.X% compounding per year?

    There are a massive number of moving parts here. But if you model that the share price will be nearly 400% higher from present levels in 8 years it sounds like an excellent investment to me.
    Jul 12, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Are you assuming the special dividends will be reinvested and held by all current owners through the entirety of the model?

    Does the special dividend reduce the share price by the amount of the dividend each time, or does the share price recover the loss? For instance if the SP is $3.70 and a 20 cent special div goes out does the SP go to $3.50 (and stay there) due to the increased debt or decrease in cash or does it go back up to $3.70 regardless?

    A share repurchase uses the money and retires an proportional number of shares adding debt, reducing share count, and thus effectively keeping the current share price the same.

    A special dividend disburses that money, lowers cash or increases debt and thus in effect makes the company worth less by the amount of the dividend. Since the share count remains static the company is worth pre-dividend value minus the dividend disbursed.

    Since SIRI is not issuing dividends and is unlikely to issue special dividends then share repurchases (which is what SIRI is doing) should be modeled.

    They're really not the same in effect on future share price. The immediate effect SHOULD result in the holder of equity seeing no increase or decrease in the value of their account at the point of event... but the are very different over time.

    Also taxes must be modeled into those special dividends. Share repurchases do not need to be modeled with taxes in mind.
    Jul 12, 2015. 12:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    I wouldn't use special dividends in your model since it is far more likely they will repurchase shares.

    Unfortunately this will, as you said, be negative to value in your model and reduce your valuation even further.

    I think you're missing a lot of long term interplay of numbers.
    Jul 11, 2015. 12:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Your comment here shows a very important disconnect.

    Sirius XM is not a music only service.

    Judging by the article and your comments I think you're starting with an idea and trying to prove it, vs. gathering all available information and researching and then forming your idea (and if you did the latter I think you missed things which are rather important, most of which can't really be put into numbers in a chart).

    Also it is puzzling that you are long LMCA and / or LMCK yet see SIRI as risky from current levels or even something to be avoided / without much upside unless they add numbers of subscribers which can not possibly be obtained. LMCA / K is by vast majority made up of SIRI value, even more now than it was in recent history due to various spin outs.

    What do you expect outstanding share count to be each year going forward and what do you expect the average purchase price per share to be as the years progress? You increase debt per year but I don't see an assumed reduction in share count through this addition of debt... what do you see this debt being used for?

    Connected vehicle services. These seem to be ignored, and projecting out 8 years (difficult if not impossible really) should probably include some sort of opinion on how this portion of the company will play out. I may have missed this but don't think I did.
    Jul 10, 2015. 10:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM re-ups CFO Frear for three years [View news story]
    Such is life.
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM re-ups CFO Frear for three years [View news story]
    It is likely he would disagree with your opinion of what he is worth. It's also likely that those who matter (those who make the decision as to how much he is offered) also disagree with your opinion of what he is worth.
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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