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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM: Expect Significant Short Increase At Next Release [View article]
    Likely yes.
    Aug 26 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Does EPS Matter? [View article]
    If you want to attempt to swing trade a SIRI earnings report, I wish you the very best of luck :)
    Aug 24 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    No news event. Been a week. What did we bet? :P
    Aug 21 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Omitting the one day LMCA went down vs. SIRI up is skewing your perception, Thomas.

    I'd stick to photography if I were you :)

    Why the multiple accounts? Or did you forget to log into the correct one?
    Aug 21 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Remind me to explain as we get closer... There is too much time between now and then to estimate on a technical level. I'd have to type up far too many scenarios.

    I am unlikely, myself, to try to trade some 4/3/4/3.5 or maybe 3.75 C+H drift, as I find current pricing to be very near my low end of estimations... the area I am most willing to place the most money / leverage in SIRI. Highs from last year are mid range for me with $4.85 approaching overvaluation *currently.*
    Aug 21 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Is anything not ridiculous on that stupid channel?
    Aug 20 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Does EPS Matter? [View article]
    Short answer is because it increases your ownership. Don't look at it as they are buying to sell, but rather they are buying today and retiring, increasing ownership percentage on a per share basis.

    Over time if the stock appreciates, and it appreciates at a rate greater than the cost of the debt (again, simplistic, there are other issues here like taxes / tax deductions that weigh significantly) then the buyback was a good move considering the action itself only.

    Often you will see people say things like share buybacks are "rarely effective" or that a share buyback was a failure because 6 months, a year, 2 years after the buyback the share price is flat or just up slightly or worse, down... but it's a long term averaged issue. The efficacy of SIRI's buyback really can't be assessed until expiration of the debt and total costs vs. total benefits are tallied.


    I don't explain this as well as some others may be able to... and honestly I am not "educated" in this... I just try to think about things that make sense to me and how might be the best way to go about that.
    Aug 19 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Watching EOD tape... heavy buying into close. Figure on a good day tomorrow if market cooperates.
    Aug 18 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Sorry they got 3 cents for the puts.
    Aug 18 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Someone sold 15,000 put contracts and also sold 15,000 call contracts $3/$4 today to pocket $0.12 per.

    http://bit.ly/1oV0bFq

    Short strangle. Person is expecting share price to remain between 3 and 4 by January option expiration. They keep the $0.12 per contract if it does. ($180,000 total trade)

    $3.50 area offers max proceeds from this trade as you are equidistant from end points.

    They could also be hedged long or short stock to cover either end. If they own 1,500,000 shares at $3.50, for instance, they are covered from this exceeding on the long side, with max profit for them at $4 when their shares are called away (they would make the 50 cent move plus $0.12 proceeds from options).

    If they are short 1,500,000 shares at $3.50 they make max at $3 or below, same amount.

    There WAS a matching trade in shares ... but this doesn't always mean anything as it could have been whoever is providing the options hedged as well.
    Aug 18 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    lol. Watch the 30 min chart 20 / 50 SMA for compression here.

    30 min 50 SMA is just about to level off IF it doesn't pop tomorrow over the 20. Notice how today it hit the 50 then followed it up.

    In the case it doesn't pop tomorrow move to the 60 min chart. This is simple consolidation / digestion of gains. Notice diminishing volume as time goes on here.

    Technical stuff requires looking at a lot of little details and trying to understand how others, as well as the "machines" will look at those details as well. Back it up with some fundamentals and you can (sometimes... often... maybe...) predict moves.

    For instance tomorrow and Wednesday I want to see a roughly two-day 14 cent move from $3.54 to $3.68 or so, it may top a little higher. At this point significant resistance should show from awhile back... earlier in the year. Long term resistance. Since I don't expect new news (unless they issue debt to support third buyback) I'd look to sell on a short term trade at or around the mid to high $3.60's.

    If this doesn't happen tomorrow and Wednesday I'd expect it Friday or early next week bouncing the 50 SMA on the 60 chart. Multiple reasons, look at prices 50, 100 days ago. Each have pops in them coming up on the trailing edge about the same time. To maintain trajectory on the 50 and 100 requires a pop in share price.

    After this, without news, I figure SIRI consolidates between about $3.50 and $3.75 or so. After that it's anyone's guess. That should be good for the rest of August and September, but I figure a retest of highs from last year is in order before the Q3 call happens.

    Obviously macro needs to hold up as well. Interest rates will be important... moreso before they borrow the next 2 bil, less so after.

    Q3 call determines whether or not it breaks towards $5 (my target $5 area... I'd probably let go $4.85), or drags down on low volume to $3.50 again and makes another 15 month cup and handle into Q1 of 2015 with a $5.50 target for mid 2015.

    I know that's kinda a bunch of info all over the place but such is my brain. I'm getting better at this stuff but I have a lot to learn still.
    Aug 18 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    No. SIRI is not going up because someone thinks LMCA might be pursuing TWC...

    Why are people trying to rationalize the move with anything except exhaustion of supply and persistent demand? There are technical issues as well.

    This has nothing to do with some super secret thing.
    Aug 17 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Do you sit and spin?
    Aug 17 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    John Malone's sale of about $10,000,000 in LMCA stock recently? I wouldn't worry yourself over it.

    Or are you talking about Frear's usual yearly sell in SIRI options? http://bit.ly/15DL4h5

    You have a lot to learn about how those who are more successful than you operate :)

    Just some friendly advice but considering your post history you would do well to calm down, take a step back, and perhaps read a bit on this stuff. Again. You have a LOT to learn.
    Aug 16 11:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    I also picked an LMCA low point to start. They run in tandem, rarely deviating by more than a couple percent. Sometimes SIRI leads, sometimes LMCA leads.

    "tonight I say, we must move forward, not backward; upward, not forward; and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom! "
    Aug 16 07:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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