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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    That wouldn't be a good idea without taking into account all that has gone on in the past 3 years (such as the spin out of Starz, for instance).
    Aug 14 08:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    We differ in opinion on this.

    Unfortunately I think that means a lot of long winded posts disagreeing with me over time here (on this topic at least).
    Aug 14 07:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    "Liberty offered 3.68 per share because that's what they think it's worth for their own purposes."

    But they didn't offer $3.68 per share. They offered an equity swap which, at the moment of the offer, valued SIRI at $3.68 per share. That valuation IMMEDIATELY shifted based on arbs moving the two stocks.

    There was a huge amount of reading material on this. Yet here we are over half a year later and people still look at it as a cash offer...
    Aug 14 07:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Also for what it is worth I was speaking with the investor I'm in on the $3's with and we were discussing this upcoming move I was looking for. Explained my reasoning for buying Aug 16 calls instead of going for the cheaper calls right after earnings... wanted to leave wiggle room and also this week puts us more than 200 days past the "peak" last year, leveling off the 200 day MA and making it easier to poke through.

    Thankfully it happened. In some ways I wish I had given myself one more week, though. This was tight.

    (I also wish I had doubled or tripled position when I could get them for a penny but I get nervous like anyone else out there ;) )
    Aug 14 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Yeah golden cross is on the way but takes a bit to get there. Why I figure it grinds a new range soon. Tomorrow should tell where that range is. I don't think $3.55 caps the range, either.... wouldn't leave enough room to work it around. Previous trend gives me cap in the mid $3.60's so I'll stick with that.

    I wasn't too sure about today until it closed hard on $3.55 with a big ask buy to boot and then a million AH at ask as well. Thought the 50 week MA would matter but looks to be irrelevant at the moment.
    Aug 14 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    $3.55 is an inflection point, really. Meeting of a resistance and a support here. Closed extremely strong but tomorrow is another day.

    For what it is worth it's over all the MA's now except the 200 month which is way way up there and is irrelevant.

    50/50 on a buy here for short term trade. Long term I prefer to just buy the 50 day and not let short term moves influence my decisions.
    Aug 14 05:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Yup individual funds will buy and sell. Happens. Every quarter. It's not concerning in the least. I'm interested in the trend, how much % they hold, and the % remaining of retail compared with the % LMCA owns. That's all.
    Aug 14 05:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    They sold. They aren't selling. This is a good thing :) They sold Liberty also.
    Aug 14 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Every few weeks there's news, and people tie it to moves yesterday, today and tomorrow.

    I'm waiting for the "Why Sirius XM Is Up Today" article citing that SIRI has some special show or something coming up....
    Aug 14 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    Yeah but these people do their homework. Certainly they do not get everything right, but they do well (unless I am misinterpreting what I see with my eyes...)

    One of them is my partner on the $3 buy. He may be the crazy one... ;) But we'll see if this heads to $4 over time and he's a happy camper. I told him about 6 months. Looks pretty good so far. 10% is locked, though it's sitting at 18% now.
    Aug 14 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Nothing has changed. Nothing needs to change for a stock to go up like this.
    Aug 14 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    I am not sure. I'd assume it gets worked out appropriately... but if a deal is on the table or worse (as to time premium) goes through, you may find that the IV drop lowers the value of the option relative to where it would be otherwise. But if you expect a premium then it should probably wash.
    Aug 14 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    What do you mean by "now what is it"? Stocks do not always have to move for new reasons. There are plenty of reasons out there for the stock to be doing what it is doing right now.
    Aug 14 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    "There will be no offer that the funds and smart longs will accept."

    Sorry to make you sad, but I believe differently.

    But hey, perhaps I am not a "smart long" ;)
    Aug 14 03:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    I haven't made 60+ percent in this year but sure, it would have been possible. If I bought $3 calls when it was $3 instead of buying shares with the other gentleman's funds? It'd be at almost a double now.

    I would have done this but.... need to stick to the rules there. I've added to the position in the $3 calls monthly along the way when I found it to be attractive and all are doing very well here.

    Price only matters when you buy it and when you sell it. Nothing matters in between. If you are adding here and there it's much better to have a depressed price until just before you are ready to sell as this will max your gains. I wouldn't own as much as I do had SIRI been at $4+ this year.

    Just different lines of thinking, I guess. I have quite a few customers who are in the market and have been privileged enough to pick their brain here and there. There's a common theme among them... and it's not getting upset when a price retreats contrary to their opinion of the company.... that breeds some excitment :) as they (generally) will consider that to be opportunity.

    Generally :)
    Aug 14 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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