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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Yes you posted similar 2 days ago just above this :

    "Siri has hit 4.00 about a dozen times in the past four months and sold off each time, all based on two quarters of excellent results and positive forecasts and upgrades by anaysts. So, who knows what it will take to finally get the price above 4.00 and start moving higher.If this is the price action to good news and a good market just think where the price will go if Siri doesn't meet anaysts forecasts or the market has that big correction many are forecasting."

    If this is torturing you, the stock is offering opportunity to exit at $4 per share over and over again.
    Aug 4, 2015. 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    This is the rate. This has been the rate. This will likely continue to be the rate.

    It's a long term issue, and should not be expected to yield much, if any, short term benefit.
    Aug 3, 2015. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Fi In Autos, A Sirius Problem [View article]
    "Until today, Sirius has been THE only alternative to terrestrial radio. That is changing."

    Why do you say things which you know are completely false?

    Today I have NUMEROUS alternatives to terrestrial radio that are NOT SIRI.

    CDs (though these are on the way out)
    USB / MP3
    Streaming (Spotify, Youtube, Pandora, insert 100's of other services that do the same thing here)

    And a software enabled dash stack is not going to change that. It simply moves the phone to a screen on the dashboard (as far as this issue is concerned, I realize it offers other options / connected vehicle services for instance)

    You are so wrapped around this idea that a software driven dash is going to destroy Sirius XM that you have these massive blinders on or something... (I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that you are just poorly researched on this space or you are simply unable to see the periphery because you formed a thesis and are rejecting anything that disagrees with it...)

    I'd say you would do well to take a step back and re-evaluate this or at least take the time to research it more thoroughly but you have absolutely no need to do so as you have not taken and do not intend to take a position long or short this issue.

    You're dangerously close to falling into the trap of arguing with the perma bulls and trying to "open their eyes" so to speak to see your side. It would be much better to spend more time understanding the facts so that you do not make mistakes that cause false support to your thesis.
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Fi In Autos, A Sirius Problem [View article]
    "That's how they get new subscribers as they aren't picking them up from people taking in used cars and saying "add Sirius, please"."

    First problem. Sirius XM does get new subscribers from the used car channel and that will be affected by the increasing number of used cars with SIRI installed in them and how well the used channel is "pushed" as well as how well it converts. For some reason you have missed this and are under the idea that SIRI does not get subs from used sales... which is puzzling because the company has been quite vocal about this shift (which will eventually eclipse new car additions) as well as headlines and press releases which have explained various details around Sirius XM's used car, service lane, etc. programs.

    "If GM says, "you can have WI-FI in your car for $10 per month or Sirius for the same cost" which one are you going to choose?"

    Second problem. GM just had a contract shift with SIRI and it doesn't expire any time soon. GM will install SIRI and will not be saying "you can have X or Y". You can have X or Y or X and Y (or X, Y, Z). I'll choose whatever I want. As I have already said, I already have "wi-fi" in my car. I have had it since my first phone which was capable of this more than half a decade ago. For $10 a month I'd likely take the second connection in the car. I'd also subscribe to SIRI. $10 a month (and I am not trying to sound elitist here) is an absolute joke ... a pittance. I spend more on ONE lunch. Hell, a large diet Coke at McDonalds is what, close to $3 with tax absent any special deals (Sometimes they do $1 drinks around here). It's less than 3 gallons of gas. If you're buying a new car (responsibly, IE: no more than a 36 month loan) and you are buying a simple entry level vehicle your car payment is $750 a month or so. Add insurance, gas, etc. $10 a month? Really? I realize that there are people out there who will go to great lengths to think about $10 a month, or call SIRI and try to negotiate down or whatever... people post this stuff in comments all the time. It's why ARPU is lower than the base monthly rate. But if you are asking me, or the vast majority of those who pay for it? The cost is fine for what I receive. Exceed $50 a month and I may think twice but my personal usage level is certainly well worth whatever I pay (I think it's like $200 a year or something... I don't really know, but it's around that.)

    "I hear comments like "I like the 50's or 60's music on Sirius". You can get that for free elsewhere."

    Correct, you can, and you have been able to. It's called FM radio. Adding another source for "free" 50's and 60's music with ads is unlikely to change the choice for SIRI. I understand you prefer free. What you need to understand is that the millions who sub to SIRI have always had a choice of free, and they made the conscious choice to pay.

    "So, if you can get whatever you want in your car for the same cost as Sirius, would you choose Sirius or the alternative?"

    I can't. SIRI never cuts out for me. Ever. UNLESS I am going through a long tunnel or parked under a double overpass in traffic. This is not available with "Streaming" and won't be for a long time. I argued about this (even before I started writing here) way back to 2009. All these articles... streaming will kill SIRI, Pandora will kill SIRI, Spotify will kill SIRI, Apple will kill SIRI, MP3's will kill SIRI, CDs will kill SIRI blah blah blah blah. And here's another one. Same article, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015... and I am sure there will be more.

    Understand this simple fact. I can't get everything on SIRI, in the car, for the same cost as SIRI. I can't. "If" is a "maybe" and an "I think perhaps but am not quite sure but if it does then well maybe this might ...." And you're still focusing on the "or" here. Like I have to choose one or the other... and am not allowed to choose both. Why can't I choose wi-fi and take SIRI internet only and use the app to get Howard Stern? Why is that not a choice? Why do I HAVE to choose SIRI or NO SIRI?

    "There are several trends of the last few years that will continue. Data gets cheaper. Connectivity increases. Content is king. Tell me how Sirius survives in that world?"

    Data does get cheaper. Connectivity does increase.

    And yes, content is king.

    As is ease of use, lack of commercials, all content in one place, 100% connectivity today, no data cost today, certain exclusive content, etc.

    SIRI survives in that world because it's no different from the world we live in today. AM/FM offers commercial based "free." USB drives offer commercial free "free." Phones offer streaming, and you can download 40 different apps and switch between them to get all the content you want, or go home and spend an hour or two each night picking what you want to listen to the next day on your commute, or whatever it is people do to save $10...

    The problem here is you seem to be a $10 guy. You'll use SIRI for free but won't pay $10 a month for it and instead you'll choose to download a bunch of apps and / or load up a USB drive or grab some CDs and whatever else is needed to get the same stuff for "Free" no matter the cost of your time. Median income in the country is approaching $60k or $30 an hour. $10 a month = 20 minutes, or let's say 30 minutes since it is after tax dollars.

    If I have to spend more than 30 minutes to get what I can get on SIRI for "Free" and I make the median salary, I'd be better off working a little longer and just getting SIRI. If I have to listen to more than 30 minutes of commercials to get what I can get on SIRI for "free" and I make the median salary, I'd be better off choosing SIRI and not wasting my valuable time listening to commercials.

    I fully understand not everyone is in that position and I don't mean to belittle those who find $10 a month to be a significant consideration.

    But the guy that frets over $10 is not the target audience for SIRI.
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Fi In Autos, A Sirius Problem [View article]
    "When I read articles like this,, I get the sense that you and other Sirius bulls are too caught up in subscriber churn to see the giant panda in the room."

    But it won't be connected by 2020 unless I purchase a new car. And then only if I am not the 1 in 4 that buys a new car that is not connected. And only if the author's assumption of a 75% penetration rate holds true. And then only if I decide to pay for a wi-fi subscription in the car and do not choose to use the very same thing that I have on my phone and have had on my phone for years. If sales rate stays the same that is a sliver of the number of actual cars on the road.

    It's also speculation.

    It's also not really a paradigm shift. I drive around all day with a cell phone and thus a wireless hot spot. Been doing it for years. What does a redundant access point in the car (that is already there, unless we are talking about someone without a phone but with an access point) do to increase "threat"? Ease of use perhaps but then you have the content hurdle to overcome. The dashboard is not going to suddenly have a personal computer in it with a bunch of distractions for the driver. It will be limited to (unless the car companies do not care about liability...) passive activity such as listening, maps, etc, when the vehicle is in motion.

    That's all that matters. If the kids in back (that are rarely in back because they don't go to and from work or on all errands) and use this "hotspot" (that they can already use from their phone or mom or dad's phone) then again they are not consequential. SIRI is not targeted towards kids, for good reason.

    But I wrap back to the article you linked here... :

    "Why your car will be connected to the Internet by 2020" is the title.

    But the author goes on to write why not ALL cars will be connected to the internet by 2020.

    First he goes into only "new" cars and then says only 75% of "new" cars will be connected to the internet. The title, his thesis, is proven false in the first few lines. If everyone's car will be connected to the internet by 2020 it would require 100% of vehicles made before 2020 to be connected to the internet and for all cars made before 100% of vehicles are connected to the internet to be off the road by 2020.

    I realize I am picking the thing apart and well... it's a sensational title and he's just using it as clickbait and that's standard practice but if you read what he is actually saying then the threat MIGHT BEGIN in 2020 if one considers the connected car to be a threat, as that is when it MIGHT reach the penetration rate required to distribute into the used base going forward from that point at a fast enough rate to possibly matter.

    What's more important is his, again, assumption that is sort of grayed out at the beginning of the article :

    "There will be about a million autonomous cars on roads by 2035"

    When the driver doesn't have to drive and can do other things, the driver shifts from being a passive only individual to a potentially active individual.

    I'll look at 20 years out when another 18 years go by.... or if that assumption there appears to be coming sooner. For right now it's too far off.
    Jul 31, 2015. 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    Let LMCA/K catch up. It's at too much of a discount. If you want to buy SIRI here you have more upside in LMCA/K though that is narrowing.
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Fi In Autos, A Sirius Problem [View article]
    Competition comes when the driver can utilize this data stream for anything more than passive listening (IE: Driverless cars, which I guess removes the idea of the "driver" entirely).

    Decades away... regardless of how much talk is being made about it. (People have been talking about the flying car since my grandparents were kids, for example.)

    Anyways... can already get "wi-fi" in the car through the phone. Have been able to do this for nearly a decade.

    Facebook thing is designed to reach areas that have no internet access at all...

    I think you are too hung up on personal bias here. A great example above is where you do not take the time to research the Facebook issue above and simply throw it in your "threat to Sirius XM pile."

    Obviously you are not long or short the issue and don't seem to have interest in putting money on one side or the other (which is puzzling because you sound absolutely confident here that this is a sure thing...) but if you DO decide to do so I would suggest additional research and digging around to understand what drives people to sub to SIRI and what keeps them away and what the actual threat to those who do subscribe, is.

    It may also be a good idea to research and develop and understanding of how technology effectively "trickles" into the car dashboard based on new vehicle sales rate compared to existing used vehicles already on the road, and how many years that takes to permeate the used space. A good start is looking at SIRI's penetration rate in new vehicles vs. how each year adjusts the total installed base.

    Will SIRI eventually plateau? Perhaps, from a radio standpoint if everything stays the same. At some point churn out will counter new subs. But it won't be due to "Wi-Fi" until or unless the driverless car becomes a reality... unless one assumes the dash will be lit and active for anything other than passive activities for that driver that needs to focus on the road. With states adopting stricter laws surrounding mobile use (I live in NH, we just got the hands free law, thank God... hope they're strict with it...) and with in dash entertainment / DVD movies for example that do not work without the car in park / E-Brake on... it's not going to be easy for an app maker to get into that stack for the driver of a vehicle in motion beyond what can already be done on a cell phone.
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    I'm not finding what I saw the other day. It may have been pulled or it may not be what I was thinking it was (IE: Author speculation).

    It was on Forbes, though... but that doesn't mean anything, honestly.
    Jul 30, 2015. 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Told ya you'd get it soon :)

    Though I'm going to take the other side at this point and say you sold too soon here. This move isn't over. LMCA/K has 10% + in it yet... likely more.

    It has to move before SIRI breaks. Would have to go into a long explanation as of why but I did make some comments elsewhere to SIRI holders about this and that LMCA/K was the better play off the bottom as it had much more upside to it. Some guy wrote an article recently that explains it better... LMCA has been overly depressed vs. NAV.

    Doesn't mean *tomorrow* it goes up but I think August will do very well by investors.
    Jul 30, 2015. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    CN I read it somewhere... driving now will have to check when I get home.

    Grats to your son :)
    Jul 30, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media: Get $3 Billion Or More For Free [View article]
    This is a very good article that I fear will probably fall on deaf ears or most will not comprehend that do read it. (I'm limited on time and did not read it entirely in detail but it's on my bookmarks to return to!)

    The thing one has to remember is that LMCA has typically traded at a discount to NAV, so buying because of that would have one assuming that history will change, and honestly it is unlikely to do so.

    LMCA is best bought for (or historically has been best bought for) spins. Buy before the spin and ride it through and then ride up whatever is spun out as the value is "unlocked."

    Eventually it'll be done again.

    I will say that LMCA / K does have a longer way to climb here before SIRI can move up based on its most recent call. I mentioned some time ago that there is more upside in LMCA / K based on how it was trading (it seemed to suffer recently for absolutely no reason... ) especially with SIRI undervalued itself. LMCA / K's discount has been higher than normal for some time now.

    Good opportunity still. LMCA / K could appreciate 15 to 20% from here easily, especially if SIRI carries it up, and 40 to 50% over the course of 12 to 18 months (this is based on my projections if SIRI breaks the $4 per share area).

    That gives more upside in LMCA / K still, even with the last couple of days of movement.

    But again not many will understand this... LMCA / K just isn't on the radar of most (and I am sure that is fine with its holders most days).
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Sirius XM After Earnings For A Zero Gain [View article]
    I think you guys are being a bit hard on the author here. He's simply sold out and stated why (even if it may be misguided, time will tell).

    Worst he can do is miss out on potential gains. Not a big deal.

    SIRI needs more sellers. Investors in SIRI should be thrilled when any holder sells out (unless that investor needs to exit soon or for some reason needs to leverage their SIRI position for other reasons). The buyback program is a beast that needs constant food, and the more food out there the cheaper it is, and the less the beast needs to work to accomplish its goals.

    Will AT+T destroy SIRI? Will anything? Who knows. Sounds scary though... sell sell sell! :)
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:41 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Sirius XM After Earnings For A Zero Gain [View article]
    None of them are buying SIRI. There is little to no benefit for anyone to buy SIRI. SIRI would be a good acquirer... but SIRI is not an acquisition target.

    But that hasn't stopped people from making up stories that X, Y, and Z companies are looking at SIRI or might buy SIRI or whatever over the years.

    Wake me up when it happens. I'll buy you a share of SIRI.
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Sirius XM After Earnings For A Zero Gain [View article]
    Then you sold in October 2013?

    Because market cap and P/E were higher, then, and it went over $4.

    It was also over $4 this year now on 5 separate days.

    If you are still "waiting" then what made you HOLD at $4?
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Fi In Autos, A Sirius Problem [View article]
    "Rocco lost? I think he won. In 2012 he said he was buying Pandora at 6 dollars and it went to over 30"

    Rocco sold out of P long before it hit 30 and he was a buy at / near the IPO. Did not wait until it hit the bottom. He admitted error several times and I've been hard on the guy in the past but there's something to be said for standing up and saying he was wrong on SIRI and wrong on P.
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment