Sirius XM: Shorts Back Off By 10 Million Shares [View article]
There really isn't much correlation. The fluctuations on whatever may not be hedged can show some past sentiment and it's interesting to some to see the moves compared to share price, whether the shorts were "right" or if they are covering higher or whatnot. Understandably longs likely take a bit of satisfaction away from the notion that shorts covered at a loss.
High short positions on a stock that is expected to do well can be a good thing, yes, as shorts could be forced to cover en masse. With SIRI I don't see that happening. SIRI's short position as a % of shares out is relatively low.
Sirius XM: Shorts Back Off By 10 Million Shares [View article]
To add, if you ignore the put rollout a bigger player did today (have an article in queue on it) there were a very high number of calls "bought" today. Shares may be selling down but people seem to be loading up on the higher exposure long calls.
30 cents on the buy side... I can write out the $4's on the next pop for roughly 22 cents each, or hopefully more X 2, banking 14 cents for a net credit. I have funds in limbo but they won't be available until Tuesday for this in my IRA. Very frustrating.... (or maybe not if the share price dips further). Really wish I could roll out from my SARSEP to my E*Trade IRA faster....
Eh... LMCA is past the 1 year mark on some of it. Is there any real advantage to LMCA to hold long? Are corporate capital gains taxed at different intervals?
Buyback can be increased anyways... there's plenty of room here to sell back shares. First thing's first... reduce the float. LMCA can sell back later when the float is smaller and thus the price is higher. I don't see LMCA selling back any sooner than they need to. They have margin loans available to them for that agains the stake if they need the cash. They can wait.
Sheets may take awhile... but I'll see if I can't at least get the one used for this article done and available for plug and play... Spreadsheets are new to me so this is a learning process...
It's hard to say, I mean you have an up front cost of about 1 to 2% depending on how savvy you are with grabbing the options (or you can even end up with a credit if you sell the 4's on a high move and grab the 3.50's on a move down like today). But it's hard to say what the best exit strategy from the play will be at the time. Over 4 a share you'll just let everything exercise for about 60 bucks for the 3 option legs and poof, there's your cash and you can buy the shares back. Under 4 you'll let the 4's expire worthless, sell the 3.50's and hold the stock, cost you 20 bucks plus option fees on the 3.50 position and a trade fee there. Either way the closing transaction should be much cheaper than opening the position.
This weekend if I have a bit of time I'm going to dig into writing up some spreadsheets so that one can simply enter the different plays and have the P+L graphed out in $$$ or % or both, so people can pick what might work best for any given sentiment. It'll take me some time but hopefully I can offer the template through google docs and it can help some people (and myself) later on. Will be a fun brain exercise :)
I think the buyback is in full swing. 150+ million should be easy this quarter especially with the volatility and heightened volume that it brings. LMCA is not participating yet and I figure their sales will be larger blocks and contractual and not piecemeal matching sales vs. public purchase amounts.
I would be surprised if the buyback program was halted after the Q1 call. Very surprised. I don't see a reason they would halt it.
Interesting stuff with options today. Guy that bought the 50,000 puts at peak? Sold them today, rolled out to July, 150,000 of them.
Looking into it now :) Nice stuff here? SIRI buys lower. But certainly not fun to watch paper losses from the highs roll through. I'm starting to get messages and emails from people saying they sold out and are "done." Always puzzles me... people wait for a run to capitulate, hold it to the lows and dump where, historically, has been the prime place to buy. I still remember the messages last year about this time, people saying they were out, "done with this POS stock" and "fed up with the manipulation" at ... $1.80 a share.
You're welcome Dave. Give a call to your broker and run the trade by them. They may be able to crunch the numbers for you and let you know if it would be worthwhile given your objectives and sentiment.
Keep in mind this play will find the best prices at or near the $3.50 per share mark, and you may be able to find the bull spread at 0 cost other than standard option fees.
Sirius XM: Get $5.50 Return At $4.50 Share Price Using This Play [View article]
Covered call is long stock short call. You're thinking of a short stock long call position.
The SS is very basic with manually computed numbers. It could be changed to % by dividing by $34,000
Bull spread % gain upside is higher, sure, but you can also lose 100% of your cost at $3.50. If you spend $34,000 on that bull spread and it doesn't pan out you lose $34,000.
Sirius XM: Shorts Back Off By 10 Million Shares [View article]
High short positions on a stock that is expected to do well can be a good thing, yes, as shorts could be forced to cover en masse. With SIRI I don't see that happening. SIRI's short position as a % of shares out is relatively low.
Sirius XM: Shorts Back Off By 10 Million Shares [View article]
Sirius XM: Shorts Back Off By 10 Million Shares [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
30 cents on the buy side... I can write out the $4's on the next pop for roughly 22 cents each, or hopefully more X 2, banking 14 cents for a net credit. I have funds in limbo but they won't be available until Tuesday for this in my IRA. Very frustrating.... (or maybe not if the share price dips further). Really wish I could roll out from my SARSEP to my E*Trade IRA faster....
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
Buyback can be increased anyways... there's plenty of room here to sell back shares. First thing's first... reduce the float. LMCA can sell back later when the float is smaller and thus the price is higher. I don't see LMCA selling back any sooner than they need to. They have margin loans available to them for that agains the stake if they need the cash. They can wait.
Sheets may take awhile... but I'll see if I can't at least get the one used for this article done and available for plug and play... Spreadsheets are new to me so this is a learning process...
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
This weekend if I have a bit of time I'm going to dig into writing up some spreadsheets so that one can simply enter the different plays and have the P+L graphed out in $$$ or % or both, so people can pick what might work best for any given sentiment. It'll take me some time but hopefully I can offer the template through google docs and it can help some people (and myself) later on. Will be a fun brain exercise :)
I think the buyback is in full swing. 150+ million should be easy this quarter especially with the volatility and heightened volume that it brings. LMCA is not participating yet and I figure their sales will be larger blocks and contractual and not piecemeal matching sales vs. public purchase amounts.
I would be surprised if the buyback program was halted after the Q1 call. Very surprised. I don't see a reason they would halt it.
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
These puts were sold, and when the share price was near $3.27 mid day.
We'll find out tomorrow.
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
Interesting stuff with options today. Guy that bought the 50,000 puts at peak? Sold them today, rolled out to July, 150,000 of them.
Looking into it now :) Nice stuff here? SIRI buys lower. But certainly not fun to watch paper losses from the highs roll through. I'm starting to get messages and emails from people saying they sold out and are "done." Always puzzles me... people wait for a run to capitulate, hold it to the lows and dump where, historically, has been the prime place to buy. I still remember the messages last year about this time, people saying they were out, "done with this POS stock" and "fed up with the manipulation" at ... $1.80 a share.
Ah well, someone needs to sell the lows....
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
http://bit.ly/14UXyu0
I enter near the 35 minute mark.
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
Keep in mind this play will find the best prices at or near the $3.50 per share mark, and you may be able to find the bull spread at 0 cost other than standard option fees.
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
Sirius XM: Get 31% Upside In 2013 [View article]
Sirius XM: Get $5.50 Return At $4.50 Share Price Using This Play [View article]
The SS is very basic with manually computed numbers. It could be changed to % by dividing by $34,000
Bull spread % gain upside is higher, sure, but you can also lose 100% of your cost at $3.50. If you spend $34,000 on that bull spread and it doesn't pan out you lose $34,000.
Sirius XM: Get $5.50 Return At $4.50 Share Price Using This Play [View article]