Seeking Alpha

Stephen Faulkner

View as an RSS Feed
View Stephen Faulkner's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Time To Buy Sirius [View article]
    What the heck do you want to hear? It's spectrum. They use it.... ?? it's reserved and restricted for very specific usage. What else is there to talk about? :)
    Aug 12 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    "If my understanding is correct"

    Where are you getting your information? Or is this a "I think maybe someone said and it sounds good so ... scary stuff"?

    Not trying to be insulting with that but it doesn't sound like you are all that sure of this.
    Aug 12 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Sirius [View article]
    He's an LMCA guy :) You two will be eating together... someday.
    Aug 12 08:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Sirius [View article]
    I hope people understand that, like the similar article last year, I don't think for someone who has an opinion like me that they SHOULD sell... I just want them to... so SIRI can buy more for less.

    Heck to that end I wouldn't mind the market pricing SIRI at 10 cents and letting SIRI buy the whole thing (except my shares and LMCA's shares) back for a few hundred million .... ;)
    Aug 12 08:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    Yes and they don't really need all of the retail shares, which is a good thing because I have a feeling some longs don't have a price that their shares are for sale at.

    Such holders are a small percent, though, and less and less significant as others gain greater percentages. Doesn't mean they won't benefit by holding, it just means their bargaining power becomes nonexistant for ... whatever it is they are expecting.
    Aug 12 08:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    Just got my steak and salad from the cute girl at curbside takeaway so the evening is good ;)

    Trying to keep the good folks at BLMN in business :P
    Aug 12 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    I understand and I know that many investors look at it the same way. It's strange to me... but I understand that some think like this.

    To me it is completely backwards. I will sell for less but not for more...

    Not sure I will ever share the sentiment.
    Aug 12 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    "Do you feel that Liberty may bite BEFORE Sirius can realize additional robust returns as a result of the buyback or do you think it is a long ways off...? I know you have opinions on this and I would love honest, thorough feedback in this area. A deeper understanding here may help me to make some decisions for 2015."

    Eh... well here's the deal (and you seem to grasp the basic idea of what LMCA can do as it gains more control based on your statements above)... I expect LMCA to make an offer for an equity swap when it benefits them the most. It's reasonable to expect that this is all independent of the share price of SIRI as after the cable asset spin SIRI will be even more, percentage wise, of LMCA... since LMCA is tied to SIRI. The more LMCA owns of SIRI the more "bonus" can be offered in the swap.

    Unfortunately retail which ... generally... does not understand the implications of such a deal... retail will latch onto the share price valuation on the swap and if it's not a 52 week high or something they're gonna complain... even if LMCA is giving them a "Free" 10% on the exchange or something. Consider LMCA offered a 10% premium here with a valuation of $3.75 current on an equity swap, would retail look at it, look at relative valuation of LMCA, and understand what it all means going forward?

    Unlikely. That's a LOT of work and requires understanding of the deal and understanding of whatever gets spun together with SIRI under that LMCA umbrella on the new stock.

    So anyways, short answer. I figure retail gets hammered out through the rest of the remainder of the $4B and through the next $2B. Knock retail down to single digits and present the offer to the "minority" which is then 80% or so institutions. They'll take 10%... heck it might be why they are here in the first place with expectations that that's coming, combined with their opinion of SIRI backing it up. That little minority of the minority called retail? Won't matter. Take the deal or leave.

    I'd take the deal, and would happily own SIRI through LMCA. :) Let them do their thing, spin it out to me later ... if they "pay a dividend" up or something like people keep trumpeting that they will, well... it gets paid up to what I own so who cares?
    Aug 12 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    People call me "young" all the time, on here especially. It's funny :) I do appear young as well... never really looked my age which I figured would pay off someday and it seems to be doing so now.

    I think people make a significant mistake if they judge others based on age alone, or let age cloud their judgment of another's thoughts or opinions.

    Funny too, in things I have done where I have not show my picture and restrain the goofiness, people have always guessed I am older than I am. Go figure :)
    Aug 12 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    8 to 10 in 1 year? No. In my opinion they will borrow to whatever they feel is comfortable leverage wise and then go to cash for buybacks at a slower pace. They may add debt as cash flow increases. One of the reasons to focus on cash flow and not EPS as that is what drives the ability to repurchase shares. Hell, the lower the EPS the better since SIRI will not burn through NOLs as quickly. Since the interest cost is deductible, you're effectively borrowing at a rate 40% lower (makes a 5% rate a 3% rate, for instance) and prolongs the ability to shelter earnings with the carry forward NOLs.

    As far as the shares go... Institutions really haven't been selling and LMCA has not. They come from somewhere, though. People trade and the buyback skims that activity. Retail sells, some buy, but overall retail has been selling out. My opinion is that the buyback is being conducted through UBS (they handled the LMCA forward to go to control) and that UBS is the remaining convert holder which has not shorted the underlying shares to SIRI in the ASR. This gives them power to move the price especially as retail bail out out of boredom. If you own 100 million shares nested in a sub $2 convert you can "Safely" short them out at any time. Gives a lot of control, especially as more and more leave the market.

    Anyways, sure, retail could sell out almost completely though I don't expect that to happen. There are enough longs who will hold fast and eventually if SIRI wants shares it needs to move into another range. Down to scare 'em out or up to get them out because "wow it finally got back to X price". All kinds of people out there. These little ranges ? Traders don't bother as it's only a few pennies so volume drops off a cliff and there's no clearly defined 15 cent trend or something they can attempt to profit from.

    We'll know institution positions for 6/30 in a few days now so it's best to wait and see if they added or subtracted. If they maintain percentage they sold some as there are fewer shares out there now... add that to the LMCA numbers and you'll get a rough idea of what retail owns.

    If somehow SIRI were able to suck the next $2.X billion from retail alone and the remaining converts? And a little bit of institutional buying? Retail could own single digit percentages easily.

    Another thing to keep in mind is that as LMCA's position increases it becomes "cheaper" to sweeten the deal and entice the rest to do whatever it is that is requested. Think of a big pie split in half... for me to offer a 2% bonus to that 50% I am going to lose 2% of my stake. Now think of a pie that is 66 / 33. Giving a 2% bonus to the smaller part now only costs me 1%. And on and on and on that goes. It's a geometric progression as well (think of a parabola with an asymptote) where at the extreme .... LMCA owning all but one share.... LMCA could offer 10,000 shares in an equity swap for the 1 and in the grand scheme of things it wouldn't matter to them, but to the holder of the 1 it would represent a 1,000,000% gain or so.

    In my opinion this is well understood by those who can place the cash here and wait. I don't view LMCA as hostile. They are just doing what they are allowed to do and people should expect that if it falls within the rules and benefits them the most, it will be done. Likewise LMCA isn't going to destroy itself here... anyways I have a couple articles in my head I guess and am typing it all out here. Watch for them and they should explain this stuff in more detail.
    Aug 12 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    But there does not have to be benefits. I guess you can be "against" it but it is inevitable. LMCA is not in any way required to sell back and is not required in any way to seek approval if they wish to not sell back, the same as any share holder.

    Are you against you receiving additional ownership for nothing? :)

    You can't hold the company hostage with 1 share. Doesn't really work that way... and it shouldn't. There's a point where they can simply take the thing private.

    Do you have to tell LMCA where you are heading in terms of ownership? If the answer is no, then LMCA doesn't need to tell you. They may need to answer to their share holders, so the best way to get an answer would be to invest heavily in LMCA, I'd think. Not sure any of us reading these articles have enough capital to buy enough to matter, though.

    I understand that you may also understand all this and this may be just a bit of venting or expression of opinion for the sake of expressing it.

    The benefits of LMCA owning more is that you own a greater percentage if you hold, in kind, period. You benefit exactly the same as LMCA. To be honest in certain areas you have a bit more freedom. LMCA can't just have SIRI buy back from them at $4.18... but you could have sold there.
    Aug 12 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    Help me out. Why would you be nervous if LMCA gets over 60%? And I understand you will object strongly to them repurchasing any more shares if they do not participate as well but... why? And ... what do you feel your strong objections will accomplish?

    I'm not understanding your thought process. I would be happy to see LMCA at 60. Even happier to see them higher (though institutions are increasing stake as well here and they'll rapidly converge to own almost the entire company between LMCA and them as time goes on. Only take another $3 B or so if institutions buy along with SIRI.

    It's interesting reading so many comments and getting so many messages. For some reason people thought this was going to blow the stock sky high during the process. I am not sure where anyone got that notion... I always figured it'd drag (although not THIS much... but hey, all the better).

    Stock moves after it is done taking on debt to buy back, the converts are gone, and SIRI moves to using cash flow to buy back shares steadily. Doesn't move during with the zero sum game of debt financed buybacks other than whatever it does to the technicals in the meantime.

    Honestly, better to get those who want out, out, anyways. SIRI has long been one of those stocks that people buy but don't know much about. "Why with all the good things people say is this stock less than Pandora's share price? SIRI should be $100 a share if Pandora is $20! omgz!" type of nonsense.
    Aug 12 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    What will it take to wear you down! Every man has his breaking point! Every man has his price!
    Aug 12 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    Sirifair I would like for you to write my obituary if I die before you, please.

    Also if I become extremely wealthy one day I shall offer you $500K a year to follow me with a trumpet and announce my entrance everywhere I go. :P Also you would get a flag.
    Aug 12 04:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Keep Selling Your Shares [View article]
    It's tongue in cheek but yeah of course I want someone to sell to SIRI during the buyback. Heck, I'd like everyone other than me to just hand over their shares for free.

    What you said above doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If the stock is not go up you will sell (like if it was $3.40 next year) but if it DOES go up (such as over $4) you will hold? Why would your sell point be lower than your hold point?

    Excuse me, Sir, I would like to buy your car for $20,000.

    I'm sorry I feel that's just under my consideration of it's fair value.

    Very good then Sir, I shall offer you $15,000 for your car with that under consideration!

    WHY YES! I would LOVE to sell you my car. Please, take it for $15,000. It is far below my consideration of it's value but your lower offer swayed me into selling!

    I'm just joking around here but my point is... wouldn't you be less inclined to sell based on a lower share price assuming that you own personal valuation of the company remains intact? Wouldn't you buy on what you should then deem as a market "mistake" and take advantage of that?

    I think you have it backwards, but you do have a lot of company with your line of thinking. There are many people who write to me that have the same mentality. Some sold as low as $3 recently, but for some reason at $4.18 it was a good hold...? Goes back to my point though, I guess. Someone needs to sell to SIRI here, and it isn't LMCA or the institutions (though arguably the ASR is institution based, it's a different animal than a simple long stock position being sold).
    Aug 12 04:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment