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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM: Get Ready For The $4 Crowd [View article]
    "The whole article is just one man's opinion on investor behavior with a chart thrown in for good measure to make it look official."

    Yes! All articles are the opinion of the author! Excellent analysis of the analysis! :D
    Feb 9, 2015. 01:03 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Might Be Due For A Breakout [View article]
    As I said, you have no power. You'll "have" nothing which I do not decide to let you have :)
    Feb 8, 2015. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    I guess... =/ I don't see video as important in the vehicle. I just don't. So I am not on board with that.

    I also do not understand this talk of "wifi". Cars with this "wifi" are just using yet another data connection and making it into a hotspot, like any smart phone is capable of doing without a separate subscription. Are they calling it "wifi" because the car takes the incoming 4G signal and then turning it into "wifi"? What's the big deal? Why would I pay for this and another data sub when my phone can do this and has done this for years? Makes no sense. At all. Unless it's a simplicity issue.

    20-200 million is what, 15 years away at today's sales rate and estimated fluctuations? Who cares right now? =/

    Anyways no I'm not on board with the video thing. Sirius doesn't need to do this. I don't think everyone has the same expectation. How am I going to watch video while driving, legally? So... who cares about video if I can't do it?

    Perhaps in 15 years cars will drive themselves (Fat chance IMHO)... but still... 15 years... good lord that's an eternity to consider...
    Feb 8, 2015. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Well, thank you for your patience with me as well :) Good luck this week. Don't think you'll need it...
    Feb 8, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    When they have to :)

    You're not detaching if you're talking "we"... you need to detach... Sell. $3.85 area if it gets there next week.

    Or you can hold... but after so much complaining and talk of how it's a terrible company run by terrible people and a terrible stock, I can't fathom why you would.

    Can wait for the $4's but is it worth waiting for 3 or 4 % gain over, say, $3.87. How long do you feel it would take to get there. Could just flip a bunch of other stocks in the meantime and make more... or so everyone says :) (just don't listen to the Metals and Miners guy with Goldfinger as his pic... my guess is he got hammered...)
    Feb 7, 2015. 11:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    I think you need to stop dipping into your meds :P
    Feb 7, 2015. 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Might Be Due For A Breakout [View article]
    They'll get there :) And we'll see...

    If you write covered calls just be sure you are happy with them being called away if they are.
    Feb 7, 2015. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Video? =/
    Feb 7, 2015. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Do you have a target sell for Monday?
    Feb 6, 2015. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Is your order still out there or did you cancel it?
    Feb 6, 2015. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    I think as far as 3d printing... the problem is the way they presented it. You barely ever hear about 3d printing anymore because, well... it's not as it was presented. Not for a long time. It's ok for little widgets and whatnot but who really cares about some 3d printed piece of plastic? Or for that matter... a 3d printed bullet or gun receiver?

    I'm not going to go out and buy a 3d printer and the "ink" to crank out a bunch of useless junk I don't / won't need. It's not going to print me a useful object that I can't buy more cheaply and better made elsewhere... it's a long ways away.

    3D printed HOUSE? Maybe... but the astronomical cost of a machine that can do such a thing is also a very long ways away and it's a crap shoot betting on who will get there. Machine still has to be brought to the site, though... set up... materials loaded... temperature, weather has to cooperate. People watching the Jetsons bought into the flying car and tickets to the moon (my Grandfather had a friggin' ticket to the moon... super smart guy but that one move... wtf? lol). Sometimes it's best to calm down and take a step back and look at the hype and the tech and think about how long it will take to get there, if it makes sense to get there / will it be marketable.

    I still don't know anyone with a 3d printer... but TMF said it would destroy China within 3 years or something? yeah...

    DASTY may make something of this. They built a nice looking building off route 128 here around Boston. Wasn't 3d printed, though... =/
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    As far as this streaming thing goes I guess I just recognize that other than using a tether to a phone, that build out and trickle down into an installed base will be a bit of a crawl. Takes many many many years for new auto tech to leak down as standard. Heck... still don't have navigation in dash as standard and it'd cost auto makers what, another $20 in parts to do so (unless one thinks it would cost more than OTC units cost to build...).

    They're not cutting SIRI out because SIRI will pay cost of install so... not worried.

    Streaming will become important once it becomes reasonably affordable to drive around a stream a bunch of music on top of everything else. Still it will be subject to data rates and connectivity issues and I have to tell you, I drive around a lot, and I am often cursing at the availability of data out on the road in areas which SHOULD be easily blanketed in 4G. Is there a reason that Brookline, MA, near the heart of Boston, barely gets a signal in many areas and when it does it's 3G? On Verizon? Not a good one...

    That mean I'll wait to see how it all plays out? Nah... I'll just poke along and decide along the way. I have expectations and time frames and to be honest with you they change here and there. Doesn't make sense for me to share them because they are generalizations and maybe I will read / learn something tomorrow that finds me changing my mind. If I am darting around in thought and sharing it, that is a disservice to readers. If I am darting around in thought and not sharing it ALL, that is also a disservice.

    So I choose a more generalized approach with an expected value range and expected strategy (which I have followed pretty closely) to share so that it is easily followed. If I come to or close to a point where I decide to sell I'll share... but I don't see that happening right now.

    Currently I hold a whole bunch of options across a whole bunch of strikes and expirations. It has more risk vs. last year... there is a larger position in $3's than $2.50's for instance, and I have around 50X more $3.50's here than I did last year.

    I would be very happy to get "only" $4 this year but I feel the stock should be valued higher. I think $4.25 area will provide resistance and retail will be willing to sell between.

    This has put me in a position to attempt a strategy for the first time of trading my whole position. It's biased long and hedged to the downside with the calls, and allows me to short on the walk up against them, then cover on a retrace.

    Today's activity put everything except some of the June $3.50's in the money so it's locked and ready to go.

    This may find results that I regret. The stock may go to $4 by next Q and then they pull debt and issue another set of good numbers and retire a bunch of shares and retail drops to single digit percentages and $4.25 presents a false ceiling... my risk in attempting to lock gains is missing a run... but I have a plan for that as well...

    This is all very intricate, though, and does not lend well to an article... I'm not a full time trader and it's rare I can sit and watch the market all day so I wouldn't be able to communicate ok I am doing this today or ok I am doing this tomorrow with any regularity.

    Getting off on a tangent here but so I'll try to get back on topic.

    I believe used cars are about to overtake new cars in terms of importance... so I am not sure why you think I am not big on the used car programs. I like them.

    Have written extensively on my expectations of the buyback and what it should eventually do. It's in the early stages. Takes time... think compounding interest type of time. I'm 37. I think Meyer is doing fine and that SIRI is making the correct choices here. I have time.

    It will never be a GoPro or a Facebook. Those days for SIRI were what... 20 years ago? If someone wants to "invest" in GoPro you better get it right... if someone wants to flip it around on a trade ... well, that's a different story, who cares about "GoPro" as a company, then? It's all about the hype.

    The stuff TMF fires out does well but I often wonder if it is because so many follow those things... they pumped DDD for the longest time if I am correct... but once the rug was pulled the stock crashed from like $100 to $30 over the last year. Good investment choice? Not looking at the chart... even if one has averaged down... Good quick flip and then sell? Absolutely. Hopefully I am thinking of the same service you mention.

    AMBA certainly has done well, and quick glance at earnings shows they have consistently beat. Not bad at all.
    Feb 5, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Yeah sometimes day's trades go out after hours. Something from $3.61 went out AH that's all.
    Feb 5, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    He sold twice as many a couple months earlier.
    Feb 5, 2015. 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Measure from the bottom not the top.
    Feb 5, 2015. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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